Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Íslandsbanki Q1 results call. My name is Jón Ómarsson, CEO of Íslandsbanki, and with me here today is Ellert Hlöðversson, our CFO.

We will go through the earnings, and then at the end of the call, you will have an opportunity to submit verbal questions. If you have any questions during the call, you can submit those in writing also on [email protected].

Now, let's move over to the results. We are presenting a very strong set of results for the first quarter, with return on equity of 13.6% and cost-income ratio also well below our target, sitting at 38.5% for the first quarter.

This is heavily impacted by high inflation numbers in the first quarter. As we have noted earlier in our investor calls, we are quite long inflation, with an inflation balance of around 200 billion ISK, and therefore, we expect to see fluctuations during the next few quarters based on how inflation comes into play.

In the first quarter, we had about 250 basis points of inflation, meaning then about 10% annualized inflation numbers, and obviously having quite a big impact on the results. At the same time, we are seeing a growth of 27% in our core operating income, again, obviously heavily impacted by net interest income and from inflation, but also seeing good growth in net fee and commission income.

Our capital remains very strong and well above our targets, and as Ellert will take you through later on, we have ample means, obviously, to continue buybacks and still expect to optimize the capital structure before the end of this year. In terms of our targets, as noted obviously, we are well above our ROE targets for the quarter, as well as below the cost-income target.

We do, however, retain the guidance for the year of 12% return on equity as we are seeing some pick-up in impairments in the loan book. Obviously, in terms of inflation, it's uncertain how much inflation we will have throughout the year and impacting net interest income.

The economy is slowing down. The Central Bank has maintained very high rates, having some impact on some of our borrowers.

Like I said, therefore, we do expect that we can see some impairments during the year and retain the guidance of 12%. I would however have to say that based on the first-quarter numbers, you could say that the risk is more on the upside in terms of the ROE for the year.

In terms of the economy, we are expecting slow growth this year. Again, the Central Bank has maintained very high rates to try to get activity down in the economy to tackle inflation.

The Icelandic Central Bank has a very clear mandate to fight inflation and get that to the target levels. Following that, we expect to see good growth in 2027 and 2028, and we have ample means, for example, very strong liquidity in the system.

We at Íslandsbanki have seen about 30% increase in deposits over the past two years. When rates start coming down, we have plenty of liquidity in the system to support further growth.

The housing market remains fairly resilient in terms of the pricing, but sale of especially new apartments has slowed down, and therefore, we are seeing some difficulties with some of the contractors that have been building apartments over the past two years and have some remaining stock. That will obviously take a few months to feed through the system.

Inflation has been persistent, as noted, obviously, and quite high inflation in the first quarter. Based on the first two months of the second quarter, we are also seeing relatively high inflation, but hopefully, that will recede later in the year.

Due to this, we expect that the interest rate levels will remain quite high and even move higher in the next few months before we expect to see them stabilizing and hopefully coming down towards the end of the year or early next year. In terms of our revenue units, we had a good quarter on all fronts, personal banking especially in terms of the ROE.

There, we also saw very strong growth in both loans and deposits. Even in credit cards, we are seeing or maintaining our market share and even growing that a little bit during the quarter, very strong quarter for personal banking.

Same for business banking, where we are seeing good return on equity, even though it's a bit below the average, and there seeing good growth in the loan book and obviously retain a very high market share there. Corporate and Investment Banking, bit lower in terms of the ROE, but good inflow in assets under management, and we continue to build up our international lending book.

I'd like to note here that, to basically enhance our emphasis, we have changed the Icelandic names of business banking and corporate investment banking, calling them Fyrirtækjasvið and Fjárfestingabankasvið. There, we are putting a clear emphasis that business banking, which is servicing SMEs, is focusing on the traditional banking services for companies, and then we have Fjárfestingabankasvið, Investment Banking, which is servicing investors and the largest corporates in Iceland, which utilize the capital markets to a largest degree.

Bit more on the operational side, we had a good quarter in terms of issuance, both for the bank and our customers, quite a few names that have been taking advantage of the strong capital markets here in Iceland. We have now become principal member of Mastercard, which is something that we can utilize in the future, and for example, for our credit card acquiring business, which we are just starting now and have been ramping up in the past few weeks and a couple of months and seeing new clients coming on board there.

That's something that we are seeing both in offense and also in defense in terms of making sure that we have the full suite of products for our customers. It's great to see the Íslandsbanki red logo on some of the terminals at retailers across town here.

We have also introduced a new loyalty service and with new products, and a bit more on that on the next slide. It's a loyalty service, obviously, where we are encouraging our customers to use more products from the bank.

We have already about almost 40,000 customers that have signed up for the service, and we are seeing very nice movements there where people are adding services, the most popular ones being monthly savings, savings in the form of securities, mainly on the bond side, and also more in terms of sale of pensions, private pensions. Both of these obviously are very good for the financial health of our customers, we are very happy to see that this is picking up.

Obviously, we are offering great terms for our customers that join this loyalty club. Then maybe one thing to mention also on the fun side, you can see the sweater that the model here, Rúrik, one of our most famous footballers, is wearing.

This has caused quite a stir in the knitting community here in Iceland. For example, the knitting club of the bank used to have usually around 15 people; it's now up to 60, I believe.

Knitting clubs around the country are getting the recipe for the sweater. We'll see plenty of that during the summer in the parties and the people vacationing throughout Iceland.

A bit of a fun side fact. Last week, we announced some changes here to our corporate structure, where we are basically simplifying our management layer, reducing the number of executives by some 15% across the board and 20% for executive directors, and some 20% or 15-20% also in the management board.

Alongside this, we are expecting a 7% reduction of FTEs during the course of this year. Partly comes from the actions that we took place last week, but also, we are utilizing that we are seeing an increased number of retirees during the course of this year, partly due to the program that we ended last year and had already taken through our accounts in the fourth quarter of last year.

Through all this, we are expecting to see obviously efficiency gains and reducing the overall number of employees by some 7% during the course of this year. We are also, you could say, simplifying our corporate structure.

We have a new unit called Strategy and Culture, led by Rakel Óskarsdóttir, which has then HR, legal, marketing, and also strategy and sustainability, combining that into one strong supporting unit. You can see our new organizational chart here on the right side.

Bit on AI, we have obviously been very focused on technology throughout the past 20-30 years here at the bank, and AI is no exception there. You can see at the bottom here, in terms of the timeline, we have been quite focused there for the past three years since 2023 when we formed our new data strategy to support more rapid technology development.

Over the past three years, we have been investing quite heavily on this front and seeing or already utilizing models for, for example, decision-making in terms of new lending for customers. We have now adopted Copilot here across the bank, and we can see that we are among the highest in terms of the Nordic banks in terms of utilization rates, where over 80% of our FTEs or our employees are using it on a weekly basis.

We have a clear AI governance framework in place and empowering our employees obviously through training. It has been mainly general training over the past year or so, but we will be now focusing more on specific training for the different tasks that the people perform in their daily jobs.

We are also encouraging innovation throughout the bank, and then have formed actually a special subsidiary, which we call [BankBank?] , which is going to help us to further speed things along in terms of development and using AI as a tool.

Obviously, developing within the bank is quite difficult to heavy regulation. Having a special subsidiary where we can move faster and try different things is quite helpful.

Then obviously, we see results from that, we can then at the end through obviously the proper processes bring those technologies into the bank. We continue to see further efficiency gains on this front and huge opportunities ahead in the technology space.

Having said that, I'm going to give the mic over to my colleague, Ellert, to go through the financials. Over to you.

Thank you, Jón Guðni. As Jón Guðni stated, we are turning a profit of close to 7.5 billion ISK in the quarter, a very strong result.

Return on equity 13.6, driven by high core operating income, growing 27% year-on-year, primarily driven by higher inflation, but also growth in fees, offset partly by additional impairments. We note as well that during the quarter, we accounted for a variable incentive scheme, as well as stock option scheme, which were not present in our remuneration policy in 1Q25.

On a like-for-like basis, based on the composition of salaries as they were in Q1 25, return on equity would have been closer to 14% aside those facts. Focusing firstly on interest rates.

The group turned a 17.1 billion NII in the quarter, representing a 3.9% margin, mainly on the back of the fact that inflationary ticks accounted for in the quarter were close to 2.5% compared to 1.0 or 104 pips in the previous quarter, where margins were close to 3.2%. Overall, the margin increase amounts to 73 pips, of which 66 pips are attributable to higher inflation.

This of course means that 7 pips are attributable to other things, related mainly to the runoff of the fixed-rate imbalance, which we have been discussing for a few quarters, and has now fully run off the books. The CPI imbalance has been quite stable in the last year or so, around 200 million—200 billion.

We note that the maturity of CPI26 was actually yesterday, which is expected to bring the CPI imbalance a bit upward. Over the course of the second quarter, we assume that we will account 146 pips of inflation, should the macro forecast realize.

Fees were growing 6.6% on a year-to-year basis. As before, payments are the larger part of our fee income stream and quite stable compared to the previous year.

Volumes on capital markets have been coming down, and you can say that the capital market development has been similar in 1Q26 as to 1Q25. As a result, the IB revenues as well as asset management revenues are comparable to the previous year.

However, we are seeing strong growth in lending and guarantees on the back of increased balance sheet activities, both domestically, but also related to the expansion on international grounds, as we have discussed before. As in previous quarters, market risk remains a very small part of our balance sheet.

Listed equity closed off at around 3 billion ISK end of the quarter, comparable to previous quarters. NFI turned a loss of 213 million, mostly related to equities and related derivatives.

We note that other operating income coming down quite a lot, as you can see on the bottom left-hand side from the previous quarter, mostly relates to revaluation of Norðurturn, the office building Íslandsbanki headquarters reside in, which was done in Q4 and is done periodically, either at the 6- or the 12-month period, explaining the lion's share of difference between Q4 25 and Q1 26. Focusing on cost.

Cost to income closed off at 38.5%, within our targets, as you can see on the top right-hand side, and quite healthily within those targets. Composition of costs is comparable as in previous quarters, around 60% salaries and 40% other operating expenses.

We note that during the first quarter, we expensed 247 million related to employee variable compensation plan, as well as 58 million related to employee share-based incentive scheme, which came into play this quarter. Organizational changes, as Jón Guðni stated, were approved in April, resulting in a reduction of FTEs by over seven—or by 7% over the year.

That includes both redundancies done in the quarter, as well as the effect of dismantling the early retirement scheme we discussed for the full-year '25 earnings call. We expect redundancies to be accounted for in two in second quarter, amounting to 260 million ISK, and the overall changes are expected to turn a savings around 1 billion ISK, fully materialized in 2027.

Focusing on the balance sheet. As before, it's a simple balance sheet consisting of liquid assets, around 20%, and loan book of around 80%.

Composition of the funding sides remains comparable: deposits 57% and stable funding around 40%. Zooming in on the loan portfolio.

The group closed the loan portfolio at 1,401 billion ISK, representing over 10% annual growth quarter on quarter. We were seeing growth across all business segment, and the portfolio remains comparable in composition, where around 43% are in mortgages, additional 5% to individuals of other nature, and then the rest is segmented in line with the Icelandic economy.

Around 94% of the loan book is covered by collateral. LTVs remain low, closed off at around 51% compared to a level of 52% year-end '25, and the credit quality continues to be robust based on disciplined lending policies.

Focusing on the mortgage portfolio itself, we saw good growth there, but the real news is that we are starting to see growth in nominal rates, the composition of the book is turning a bit more healthy. As before, the mortgage book is well secured; LTVs around 56% close of the period.

In terms of asset quality, we saw quite a lot of impairments during the quarter of around 1.2 billion, where annualized cost of risk was around 35 pips, same as or similar to 4Q25. We still guide towards the fact that the normalized cost of risk through a cycle is assumed 20 to 25 pips.

Stage 3 loans closed off at 2% compared to a level of 1.5% year-end '25. However, Stage 3 loans were dropping, and the Stage 2 increase relates to a movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3.

We do note that sale of residential real estate continues to be slow, a few construction projects have been classified in Stage 2, as you can see on the bottom left-hand side, and was done so in 4Q25. We are seeing clear indication that prolonged high interest rate and inflationary environment is starting to have an impact, although we are still seeing borrower-specific circumstances materialize and no structural issues within the book.

Focusing on the liability side of things, as in previous quarters, the composition remains to a large degree comparable. We are seeing overall deposits growing by over 4% in the quarter, and individuals growing by over 8% in the quarter on an annualized basis.

Composition of book with regards to term deposits is comparable, and the overall, I would say, coverage by deposit guarantee scheme as well. This, of course, turns into liquidity position where 20%, as I said before, of the balance sheet is in liquid assets.

LCR closed off at 177% for all currencies and 141% for ISK. As before, the entire securities portfolio is marked to market either through P&L or OCI.

This, of course, allows the banks to be quite flexible when it comes to wholesale funding, and following a quite active 4Q25, we are now fully umbrella-funded throughout the year. As before, diversification of funding sources through products and maturities, as well as types of investor, types of locations, is the key here.

On the top right-hand side, you can see the maturity profile of the bank, where maturities for '26 are quite low, and even lower today than at the reporting date, as the 33 billion on the bottom towards the left were paid off, the CPI26, which was paid off actually yesterday. Next year, we expect similar maturities aside from an FX or a euro-denominated covered bond, which is a bit different market than you would see on the senior market internationally.

In terms of spreads, spreads have been very, I would say, very stable throughout periods of market turmoil, as you can see on the top or bottom right-hand side. We note that there is a call date on AT1 this September, and we expect that to be called, subject to refinancing in geographies and currencies as well as timing based on capital needs at the time.

Lastly, in terms of capital, the bank closed off the capital ratio at 22.5% compared to a target of 21.1%, and CET1 ratio of 18.6% compared to a target of 17%. As you can see on the bottom right-hand side, we saw further reduction of REA ratio from a position of 59.8% down to a 58.7% on the back of further adaptation of options related to implementation of CRR3.

We continue to be committed to our capital optimization journey. During the first quarter, the bank distributed close to 20 billion: 12.6 billion through dividends and close to 8 billion in other distributions, mainly buybacks.

As at 31 March, the distribution capacity, including uncompleted buybacks, as well as the portion of profits in 1Q26, amounts to 29 billion, assuming a fully optimized capital structure. In essence, a very strong result: return on equity 13.6% for the quarter; a very sound excess capital distribution or excess capital position, where distribution or growth capacity amounts to 29.2 billion from a CET1 standpoint; and changes as well as implementation of products through the first quarter provide proven strategic execution, everything from strategy through execution, and then impact, as we have stated, on the cost side related to organizational changes in one or throughout 2027.

With that, we turn the floor to questions and ask the operator if there are any questions on the line.

Very good, thank you. Are there any written questions?

We have a couple of questions. First, beyond the 7% headcount reductions by year-end 2026, do you expect further reductions or is the aim to hold flat from 2027?

The question is regarding our announced changes through corporate structure this year and 7% reduction in the number of FTEs, whether we will see further reductions going forward. I think with the new technologies, we will see further efficiency gains, both to support then fewer employees and also new services across the board.

I think we will see some impact on both sides, but we have not put down any numbers in terms of that going forward.

Another question. Once the loyalty services are fully ramped, can you quantify the cumulative bps impact on the group's NIM from the preferential rates on mortgages and deposits?

We have stated that on a normalized level where policy rates and inflation comes out to what we can say is a long-term view, we expect NIMs to be around 3%. We still expect that to be the case.

What is the average ticket size in the international loan book, and how diversified is it across borrowers and geographies?

The average ticket size is probably around €25 million roughly, ranging from some 10 million and up to 50 million. The whole book consists of probably around 15 borrowers, the largest one being probably around 10% of the international book.

We have in the seafood space, it's mainly in North America, both in the US and Canada. Then in terms of the leverage loans and infrastructure, that's mainly on the Nordics and some exposures also into mainland Europe.

Can you provide further information on your visibility of the loan book growth over the next few quarters, and how is that growth expected to develop within different business segments?

On the loan book growth going forward, that obviously moves quite a bit between quarters based on the appetite. We do expect relatively slow growth throughout this year in terms of the loan book, as obviously interest rates are quite high and the Central Bank is trying to cool down the economy.

Having said that, we saw very strong growth in the first quarter in mortgages. From what I've seen so far, we can expect fairly good growth there throughout the next few months at least.

It's mainly on the large corporate side, I would say, where we have seen relatively slow growth in the first quarter. We are seeing some actually signs of pick-up there as well.

Overall, I would expect growth in loans to be below GDP growth throughout the rest of this year, and then obviously through the business cycle, we expect loans to grow as in line with nominal GDP growth going forward.

If I can add to that, I think we will see the domestic part growing in low single digits while the portfolio as a whole, offset partly by international growth, probably towards middle single digits.

You are congratulated on a good result and asked to provide more insight into the company-specific impairment. In what sector is the company, and do you expect more borrower-specific cases in the near term?

The impairments relate to probably three to four borrower-specific cases. We classify them as borrower-specific as they reflect on borrower issues rather than structural sector issues, if you will.

Those are in various indices. There is an exposure in the construction sector, there is within commerce, there is also within industry.

No real, I would say, no real common denominator between those, but we do note obviously that we are still in a high-rate and high-inflation environment, so that is expected to have an impact. We also note that the borrower-specific impairments have been impaired to a level we deem suitable for those borrower-specific cases.

For those cases, assuming all other equal, they are impaired to a level we deem suitable for those borrowers.

There are no further questions on the chat.

Thank you. Operator, any further questions online?

All right. Then I thank you all for participating in this call.

As noted, we are quite happy with the Q1 results, and at the same time, we are seeing a lot of activity on the operational side. Thank you again, and we wish you a great day.

Thank you.