Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Verallia 2025 full year results analyst call. The call will be structured in two parts: first a presentation by the Verallia Group management team, represented by Patrice Lucas, CEO, and David Placet, Head of Investor Relations.
Afterwards, there will be a Q&A session. During this session, you may ask question in two ways: by submitting a written question in the box below the player, or by joining the conference call and dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue.
I will now hand over to the management team. Gentlemen, please go ahead.
Patrice Lucas
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to our Q4 '25 and full year financial results.
Today, David Placet, our Head of Investor Relations, is with me, and as usual we'll go through our presentation, and then we'll have the Q&A session. I will share with you some key highlights, and David will present in detail our numbers, and then I will come back on our outlook for 2026.
As an introduction, just to remind you that Verallia is a global leader in glass packaging. We are number one in Europe, number two in Latin America, and number three worldwide.
On this chart you have our ID card. You have on the left the update of our 2025 split of sales by segments.
Compared to 2024 split, still wine and sparkling have lost one point each, spirits and beers have kept the same weight, and soft drink and food have won one point each. One of our strong assets is our customer base and the diversified and balanced end markets in which we operate.
We operate in 12 countries with 35 glass plants and 67 furnaces, serving around 11,000 customers and producing around 18 billion bottles and jars annually. Please note also that we are running 19 cullet recycling centers, allowing us to control about 50% of our needs for external cullet.
Let's now move to some key highlights. I would like to come back on four of them, which have been key milestones in 2025.
One, our Net Zero 2040 trajectory was validated by SBTi, making Verallia the first global food and beverage glass producer to commit to a 2040 pathway. This confirms our decarbonization leadership, and we have a robust plan to do so.
By 2030, we plan to reduce our Scope 1 and 2 by 46.2% compared to 2019, and by 90% in 2040. For Scope 3, the plan is to reduce by 27.5% in 2040 compared to 2019, and by 90% by 2050.
Some of our customers have committed to achieving Net Zero by 2040, and they need our contribution. This commitment is paramount and demonstrates how glass packaging is well position as a sustainable solution for the future.
This is a strategic lever for future value creation. Number two, we added targeted capacity and progress in decarbonization.
In 2025, we commission a second furnace in Campo Bom, Brazil, to support our organic growth in a dynamic market. We also commission a second furnace in Pescia, in Italy, to support the food growing segment.
These two plants, moving to two from one furnace, are also improving their own competitiveness. Then we open our first hybrid furnace in Zaragoza, in Spain, replacing a traditional furnace.
It is a success. We are running now up to 60% electricity and getting the CO2 emission reduction.
Third key highlights, obviously 2025 was marked by BWGI's voluntary tender offer. This process ended mid-August and was successful.
BWGI's went up and has now 77% of Verallia shares. Bpifrance went down and has now 3.8%.
Employees still have 4.1% of the share capital, and the floating part is now at slightly above 12%. Last key highlights is our successful new bond issuance of €850 million, demonstrating the support and confidence in Verallia.
About our CO2 emission reduction, we are on track to reduce absolute emissions by 46% by 2030 compared to 2019. In 2025, Scope 1 and 2 emissions were slightly up by 0.7% year-over-year, gains being offsetted by higher production level compared to 2024.
We are now at -23.2% compared to 2019. What is very significant is the reduction of our intensity, meaning the CO2 by tonnes of packed glass, which is down by 3.1% in '25 compared to '24.
Please also note that external cullet usage increase to 57.7%, and that our renewable low-carbon electricity share rose to 69% from 64%. Next is about the communication we did last week about targeted industrial adaptation in Europe.
After a strategic review conducted in each of our European countries, we are considering adapting our industrial footprint in Europe to align with the reality of the current demand. These actions responds to: one, weak demand in Germany, Benelux, without significant evolution at mid-term; two, no material rebound expected in Cognac and overcapacity in extra-flint; and three, a market downturn in the UK, especially in spirits.
Facing these market realities, in Germany, we are considering the closure of the Essen site, about 300 positions, with production transferred to other Germany sites. In France, we are considering non-reconstruction of our furnace in Cognac, which is approaching end-of-life, and here we are speaking about 60 positions.
In UK, we are considering shutting down one of the furnace in Knottingley and restart the more efficient furnace in Leeds. With this plan, we are moving from conjunctural to structural adaptation.
This plan is about adapting to volume context on a specific segment and a specific geography to better focus on growth opportunity. Our objective is all about competitiveness, cash generation, and asset efficiency.
Before giving the floor to David, a quick overview on Q4 and full year results. As seen from few quarters now, we are recovering volumes, quarter after quarter.
Q4 revenue is down by 7.1% year-over-year to €763 million, with an organic growth at -4.2% year-over-year, which is giving a full year revenue down by 3.6% year-over-year to €3,331 million, with organic growth at -2.8% year-over-year. About EBITDA, Q4 adjusted EBITDA is €161 million, -20% versus last year, with a margin at 21.1%, -341 bps versus Q4 last year, giving a full year adjusted EBITDA of €692 million, -17.8% compared to last year, with a margin of 20.8%, which is -360 bps compared to last year.
Net income is €93 million, reflecting a -€7 million non-cash, after-tax impact of exceptional asset depreciation, mainly from Germany and in line with the industrial adaptation we are planning. About net debt, our leverage is ending at 2.7x versus 2.6x at the end of September and 2.1x end of '24.
Subject to the approval of the general assembly meeting of shareholders scheduled on April 24, the board is proposing a dividend of €1 with options for payment in cash or new Verallia shares. Please note that BWGI and BPI have committed to opt for share payment, meaning that the maximum cash out will be of €20 million for the group.
Finally, about our financial indicator, this is what I have just mentioned, we are on track and especially with good progress on the external cullet usage. Let's see now in details the numbers with David.
David Placet
Thank you, Patrice, and good morning, everyone. I will now walk you through our Q4 and full year '25 results, following the same course as usual, i.e., starting with revenue, then EBITDA, and then cash.
Revenue bridge for Q4, which, as a reminder, isolates Argentina, as we've now done for quite a few quarters. As you can see, Q4 revenue was €763 million, down from €821 million in Q4 '24, despite positive volume growth.
Sales volumes were up again in Q4 for the sixth consecutive quarter, though at a slower pace than in Q3. You may be surprised to see a negative volume leg on the bridge when volumes are actually up.
This is due from a one-off in Q4 '24 that did not happen again this year and accounted for slightly more than so €10 million of decline, or 1.5% of growth. Without this one-off, the volume leg would be positive, and organic growth, rather than the 4.2% negative that we see here, would actually be in line with the organic growth for the full year of around -2.8%.
Moving on to price/mix, as has been the case through 2025, this price/mix impact is the main negative driver of the bridge, and it amounted to a negative €36 million in Q4. However, it is worth noting that this impact has been phasing down through the year, as price/mix was negative by €59 million in Q1, down to €52 million in Q2, €43 million in Q3, and now €36 million in Q4.
The only other material impact that we see here relates to Argentina, whose contribution was affected by the continued devaluation in the peso, and there was no other FX or perimeter movement in Q4. What does that mean for the full year?
The overall momentum was broadly similar in FY '24 versus Q4, with positive organic volume growth contributing €78 million, but being offset by the negative price/mix impact of -€189 million. Revenue for the full year amounted to €3.3 billion, down 2.8% organically.
Like we said, the volume impact was indeed positive, four quarters of positive volume growth fueled in particular by strong activity in food and NAB. The negative price/mix was largely due to the carryover impact from the 2024 price reductions, but went actually down gradually through the year, as we highlighted earlier, -€111 million in H1 and €78 million down in H2.
As for other factors, FX mainly related to the Brazilian real, perimeter to the contribution of Corsico, which as a reminder affected H1 only, and Argentina was down on adverse FX. Now going quickly region by region, let's start with SWE.
We actually had pretty strong and consistent activity of volumes through the year, fueled by strong performance in NAB, and I think all segments achieved positive like-for-like volume growth in the year, with the exception of sparkling wines. This was, however, more than offset by negative price/mix developments, and that led to a negative 3.8% organic growth and full year '25 revenue of €2.2 billion.
Reported growth was 1.6% negative after factoring in the six months of extra revenue from Corsico. NEE faced a difficult year with both lower volumes and selling prices, especially in Germany.
Food jars performed well, but most other segments not so much, with a slowdown in activity in Q4, especially in Germany, mostly beer and sparkling. Spirits remained under pressure in the UK, but the reopening of our second Ukrainian furnace contributed positively towards year-end, especially in the food segment.
Last but not least, LatAm. As you can see, very positive organic growth of +8.5%, fueled by volume growth that we saw especially in Brazil, and as usual pricing in Argentina, but being more than offset by the strongly negative FX in both Brazil and Argentina, leading to a 10% lower reported revenue at €384 million.
Then we just wanted to highlight, before we move on, in Brazil the strong contributions from spirits and wine, supported by the Campo Bom furnace opening mid-year, and that more than offset the slower beer demand that we saw in H2. Let's now move to EBITDA, starting again with Q4.
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was down to €161 million. Margin was 21.1%, down year-on-year, but higher than the nine months '25 margin, which stood at 20.7%.
Activity impact was again positive in Q4, fueled by a combination of higher organic volumes and some inventory buildup that took place towards the end of the year. Spread remained negative in Q4 by €53 million, mainly driven by lower prices and mix, but overall, as we said, spread again improved through full year '25.
On the other legs, net productivity contributed €10 million, Argentina was down on negative FX, and the other leg was negative as the SG&A reduction was offset by the non-recurrence of a number of positive one-offs that we recorded in Q4 '24. Moving on to full year, the chart looks a bit the same here, with positive activity growth and productivity offset by negative spread and FX.
Activity contributed strongly, +€60 million, with broad-based growth, especially in food and NAB, and like we said, some positive inventory variation. Spread had a very strong impact, negative one through the year, for -€236 million, but like we said, softened materially through the year, €143 million negative in H1, €94 million negative in H2.
Net productivity contributed in line with our 2% cash cost reduction target, here 2.1% or €45 million. We've done the job again on this item, focusing on what is within our control in a difficult market environment.
The other leg was positive in full year, unlike Q4, with positive perimeter and SG&A reduction, partly offset by the negative impact in Q4 that I referred to earlier. Lastly, FX weighed on EBITDA through the decline in both the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso, again Argentina being recorded separately.
The bottom line from this slide is profitability down year-on-year, but still solid, above 20%, and in line with our revised '25 target. Looking at our geographies, let's start with SWE, and I think we'll move a bit faster here.
Main message again: EBITDA down year-on-year to €461 million, but with a still solid margin over 20%, positive activity contribution, strongly negative but gradually moderating price/mix, and productivity delivering in line. More challenging situation in NEE, with EBITDA down by 30% to €104 million, with margin down substantially as well.
We did see the positive impact from the fixed cost reduction plan implemented in Germany, but this was largely offset by lower volumes and negative spread, including some softer activity in H2, especially in Germany. Two bright spots that I think are worth highlighting: first is the improvement in Ukraine with the reopening of our second furnace, and then the very strong delivery on PAP, again focusing on what is within our control.
Lastly, LatAm. As we saw on revenue, we had a strongly negative impact from FX, and EBITDA was up 3% organically, but down 14% reported to €127 million.
EBITDA was supported by strong activity, especially in Brazil, and again productivity, though spread was slightly negative. I think we would like to reiterate the very strong profitability of our LatAm business, 33.1% margin in '25, close to the 2024 levels.
This business keeps growing, and it now accounts for nearly 20% of the group's EBITDA—I think the exact number is 18—despite the FX headwinds. Now moving to cash, let's start with one of the key drivers, which is CapEx.
Obviously, in a difficult market environment like the one we're facing, keeping CapEx under strict control is obviously key to protect our cash generation. In this context, Verallia's total booked CapEx was down significantly in 2025 to €259 million, or 7.8% of sales.
This was made possible by a strict control on our expenditures, as well as a light furnace repair schedule, which led to a lower recurring CapEx. At the same time, we continued to invest in our strategic CapEx, the growth of our business and our decarbonization plan.
Strategic CapEx remained close to €100 million, €97 million, 2.9% of sales. As a reminder, we commissioned two new furnaces in Brazil and Italy, we opened our first hybrid in Spain in Zaragoza, and we're working on the second hybrid to be open in France in '26 in Saint-Romain.
Looking forward, let's keep in mind that we have no new capacity investments coming up, and more generally, we intend to keep our CapEx under strict control. How does that translate into cash flow generation?
The main highlight of the year on the free cash flow is basically it doubled in '25 to €166 million, despite a substantially lower year-on-year EBITDA. This was achieved through the tight CapEx that we just referred to, as well as a lower working cap outflow versus '24, despite some inventory buildup towards year-end.
CapEx conversion remained very high at 62.6%, it was actually up 100 bps year-on-year, and operating cash flow was close to that of '24. Free cash flow so doubled eventually as interest paid was broadly in line with '24 and cash tax went down sharply.
As a reminder, other operating impacts mostly include the IFRS 16 charge and some restructuring costs. We had, I think, €16 million of them in '25, mostly relating to Germany, and without which free cash flow would have been €182 million.
Looking at our leverage now, net debt was broadly stable in full year '25, up €63 million from year-end '24, after the payment of €200 million of dividends in May '25. Net debt was actually down in H2 with €100 million of free cash flow generated, and amounts to €1.86 billion at the end of '25.
Leverage is up year-on-year to 2.7 times. This is mostly due to a lower LTM EBITDA, and it is broadly flat against September '25.
Lastly, turning to our financial structure and liquidity, I think you know this chart pretty well by now. There have been some changes this year on the back of BW's public tender offer.
The bulk of our gross debt now revolves around five bonds. The first two are the SLBs issued in 2021.
They were callable, as following the change of control, but there are still €170 million of them outstanding at year-end, which is quite nice given they're pretty low rates. The third one dates back '24 for €600 million, and the last two bonds were issued, as Patrice mentioned in introduction, in November '25 to refinance the bridge loan that itself helped refinance the SLBs that were called further to the tender.
Two points to highlight as the bottom line: the first is we have very strong liquidity at €870 million, including nearly €400 million of cash at year-end, and we also have a very strong maturity profile with no meaningful maturity until '28. With this, I'll hand over back to Patrice.
Thanks for your attention.
Patrice Lucas
Many thanks, David. Let's move to the outlook.
As for the past two years, the key topic for the outlook is market environment. What could we expect for 2026?
When we analyze some key customer comments or feeling about the demand, plus all the market intelligence we have, it invites us to be cautious. We could see some positive expectation for non-alcoholic beverage and food, but stability or slight digging down for the other segments.
All of that is pointing to market stability in 2026. To be more specific, we expect a continued soft end-consumption backdrop in Europe, with LatAm likely to outperform.
Geopolitical and trade uncertainties will persist and drive volatility for sure. The price carryover effect from prior reductions will gradually phase out, which will ease pressure on inflation spread.
The European furnace closures continue, is pointing to industry overcapacity reduction. Just as a reminder, you know that since the end of '23, 22 furnace closures have been announced.
Overall, stability rather than an upturn is our base case for 2026. Therefore, for 2026, with this market environment we have just described, we aim to deliver an adjusted EBITDA around €700 million, and a free cash flow around €220 million, excluding the plan restructuring cash out.
I want to tell you that we do enter in 2026 with discipline and confidence, with strong focus on our competitiveness, cash generation, and deleveraging. We plan to strengthen our competitiveness by implementing our capacity adaptation plan, delivering enhanced PAP savings, and keeping CapEx under strict control, around 8% of sales.
Thanks a lot for your attention, and now let's open the Q&A session.
Operator
If you wish to ask a question, you may do so by submitting a written question in the box below the player, or by joining the conference call and dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key 6 on your telephone keypad.
The next question comes from Francisco Ruiz from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Francisco Ruiz
Hello, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I have three, if I may.
The first one is on the outlook. With the volumes more or less stable and stability in prices, with more than €50 million or around €50 million coming from PAP, why are you still expecting a flat-ish EBITDA this year?
Second, on the restructuring plan, would appreciate if you could give more detail or tell us when you are going to release this detail in terms of the savings that you are expecting, the cost of this, how it's going to be mainly performed during this year and the followings, more information on this because it's a substantial plan. Last but not least, is on the cost inflation.
On Q4, we have seen a 4% cost inflation versus last year, when we have seen a decline in energy, and theoretically, your energy bill should be lower than in previous quarters as a result of the rolling forward of the hedges that you got. I don't know if you have an explanation for this, and if you could give us what's your expectations for energy for 2026?
Thank you.
Patrice Lucas
Thanks a lot, Francisco, for this three paramount questions. About the outlook, I think you made a quick clear analysis, but first of all, let me tell you that lessons learned from 2025, I want to be cautious.
I want to be cautious taking the lessons learned and the volatility of the environment. On the activity, I have explained our base case for 2026: flat in Europe, some up in Latin America, in a much more dynamic market.
About spread, we're going to still have some carryover effect, but light carryover effect from '25 to '26, and we are planning to have a spread normalizing toward zero, with still a big question, which is a mix impact. Because you know that in our spread we have mix plus price and inflation.
We have seen lately that the mix was quite negative, and this was the case in 2025. About PAP, we are going to deliver and push for higher delivery, and we have the Forex in front of that, which is always down and pushing down the EBITDA compared to last year.
Again, want to be quite realistic, and we want to really focus on self-help measure, what we do really control, and then if we can get additional upside, we'll see. As we speak, this is what we're proposing as a commitment to be around €200 million.
For the restructuring plan, I think we'll be back to you in Q2 for our Q2 results with much more details. What I can tell you as we speak, the intent is to have this plan implemented in H1, to take about 50% of the positive impact in our numbers this year, and 100% of impact next year in '27.
The cost of it, obviously we have negotiations which are starting both in France and Germany, and we need to let go this properly and according to the social responsibility we want to clearly have with our people there in Germany and in France, to finalize and comment definitely. Cost inflation, maybe David, you want to comment?
Francisco Ruiz
Patrice—
Patrice Lucas
Yes?
Francisco Ruiz
Patrice, just one thing. You said that 50% of the savings of the plan would be this year.
This is included in the €700 million guidance?
Patrice Lucas
It is about, yeah.
Francisco Ruiz
Thank you.
David Placet
To your question on cost inflation, I think in Q4 we had some positive items in Q4 '24, like I mentioned, in the form I think of tax credits, which didn't happen again this year. I think that mostly explains indeed the slight increase in the cost base, otherwise it would be I think broadly flat.
Having said that, two items worth keeping in mind. As usual, we did indeed have some relief in '25, including on cullet and to some extent on energy.
We also had some inflationary pressures, as usual, from personal costs in particular. As a reminder too, I think we still had some of our '22 hedges valid up until the end of the year, and so we'll only see the benefit from the end of these starting '26.
Francisco Ruiz
About your guidance for energy in '26, please?
Patrice Lucas
Sorry, say that again? Guidance for energy.
Francisco Ruiz
Energy cost on the rolling forward of your hedges. How much do you expect energy bill to be reduced in '26?
Patrice Lucas
This is not a number we are going to provide. What we could tell you is that we were hit and it was a headwind for us in '24 and in '25 based on our hedging policy.
What I can tell you is that the penalty we had in '25 is behind us when we are entering in '26. We have our energy costs which are going down, and if I want to be a little bit more precise, we're going to be at market level in '26, obviously depending on the volatility, we see a lot of volatility, but as we speak, globally we are there.
Francisco Ruiz
That means how much versus this year? A rough figure in terms of variation.
Is a 10%, 15% lower?
Patrice Lucas
I think we really want to think in terms more of spread, to be honest. At the end of the day or the year, that's what's going to matter.
Francisco Ruiz
Okay. Thank you very much.
Patrice Lucas
Thank you, Francisco.
Operator
The next question comes from Jean-François Granjon from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.
Jean-François Granjon
Yes, good morning. Four questions from my side.
The first one, could you give us some more color regarding the negotiations you have currently for the pricing with your customers? Can you implement some new price increase or not?
The second question concerned the spread effects. I understand that the carryover should be lower compared to previous year, but do you expect a negative price/mix effect?
The third question concerned the cash out expected coming from the restructurations. This should impact, I think, the free cash flow.
Could you give us the amount of the cash out expected this year? The last questions, you confirm the CapEx level at 8% of the sales, do you expect minus €300 million CapEx for all CapEx in 2026?
Thank you.
Patrice Lucas
Okay. About negotiation and pricing, obviously we are not commenting in details the pricing evolution and what we are negotiating with our customers.
What I can tell you is that, compared to '25, we still have some slight carryover effect. We're going to have, depending on the geographies and depending on the segments, some slight price decrease.
What is much more important for us, we do expect a normalization in our spread toward zero. The big uncertainty we have is mix.
As it's quite complicated to estimate the mix. What we have seen in '25, it was already the case in '24, is that mix is pulling down the financial numbers, was negative.
About cash out for our adaptation plan, industrial adaptation plan, obviously negotiation is going on, and it's going to take a few weeks and even few months for France. What we do expect, I can give the order of magnitude, is going to be a restructuring cost, most of it being social cost, between €40 to €50 million, and most of this impact in 2026.
Some would be coming in '27, but most of it in '26. CapEx, yes, we do confirm CapEx that, due to the market environment, through as well to some CapEx deflation and negotiation we are able to do, we do see our CapEx maintaining the level around 8% of our sales.
This is what we see for 20 for '26 and certainly onwards as well for '27, but this is what we see.
Jean-François Granjon
Thank you. Just an added question regarding the mix effect.
Could you just remind us the main difference in terms of mix between the different segments with sparkling, wine, non-alc beverage, etc.?
David Placet
That's a tricky one, to be honest, because some segments are inherently better priced than others, but there is also enhanced complexity in certain products. I'm not sure we can have a generic answer to this one, unfortunately.
Jean-François Granjon
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Saul Casadio from M&G PLC, please go ahead.
Saul Casadio
Hi. Thanks for taking my question.
Just have a couple. The first one with regards to the restructuring plan that you are considering, what is approximately the capacity as a percentage of your capacity that will be taken out as a result of this plan if it's implemented in full?
That's my first one. Thanks.
Patrice Lucas
The capacity we are speaking about here, meaning Essen, one furnace in Cognac, is around 200 kilotonnes per year. 200 kilotonnes per year.
To our full capacity, it's about— 3%.
David Placet
3%.
Patrice Lucas
Around 3%.
David Placet
As a reminder, we have around 60 furnaces in Europe, and we're going to be shutting down three, subject obviously to—
Patrice Lucas
I think what is important to mention on top of this adaptation plan, you do remember that obviously market is down since the end of '23, and at a point of time, there was a big question about market recovery. We were expecting, to be honest, a quickest recovery of the market, and we were working on making adaptations, short-term adaptations, temporary adaptations, better try to understand if we were facing some conjunctural market situation versus structural market situation.
Now it's clear that we came up to the conclusion that in Germany, due to the overcapacity we observed and the market dynamics, it's no more conjunctural, but it's much more structural. For us, it's really to redeploy the business in Germany on three sites, six furnaces, for better qualitative and contributive business.
This is really the strategy. When we speak about France, it's about the same.
That in France we had some conjunctural cold stop, temporary shut down, and all of that. Here, we came up to the conclusion as well that what we have seen in Cognac after booming volumes in '22 in 2021, '22, is that it was not really structural as well, and we are much more normalizing, and we are back to '18, '19 volumes.
This is why we decided as well to make a structural decision to adapt there, and as the furnace is coming to the end-of-life, there is no rational to reinvest on this furnace for this market.
Saul Casadio
Thanks. Just to clarify that I have understood correctly, if we put together the capacity of the French, German—sorry, sorry, I have the fire drill.
Sorry. If if we put all together the the UK, the French, and and the German, that represent roughly 5% of your total capacity?
Patrice Lucas
3%.
Saul Casadio
3%. 3%.
It's not 5%. Three, 3%.
Okay.
Patrice Lucas
The capacity reduction is—well, you're close to fire!
Saul Casadio
Sorry, it's just a, sorry.
Patrice Lucas
I'm kidding. No, to be precise, the capacity reduction is in Germany, in France.
If I want to be precise, in UK, it's not a capacity reduction. It's a closure of one furnace and the reopening of another one, but which is much more efficient in term of competitiveness, in terms of cost, and in terms of CO2 emission.
Saul Casadio
No, it is clear. Would you consider more actions, cuz your competitors have done more on the supply side in terms of taking out capacities?
Are we likely to see more on this side?
Patrice Lucas
It's all about the geographies and the segments we are in. Obviously, the geography which is suffering much more and which really has overcapacity is Northeast Europe, and especially Germany.
This is why we have taken measures there. If I'm back to what we had in 2022, in '22 we were operating 10 furnaces, and here we are planning to move to six.
It means we have done already part of the job in 20 in '24 and in '25. In Germany, moving from 10 to six furnaces.
The job has been done, I would say. In France, we are making this decision for Cognac, which is really a specific segment in which we need to face reality.
Then for South of Europe, Italy and Iberia, Spain and Portugal, we don't need to adapt capacity there. I'm not speaking about Latin America, where on the opposite, we are facing a much more dynamic market, and we have opened for the past two years two traditional furnace in Brazil, putting our Jacutinga and Campo Bom facility from one to two furnaces.
David Placet
Just to reiterate what Patrice said earlier, this move is really consistent with what's been happening in the market if you look at the, I think 20 or so, furnace closure announcements that have taken place over the last two years. Most of them relate to, let's say, Northern Europe, Germany and Benelux in particular.
Saul Casadio
Okay. Just a quick follow-up on this one.
In terms of the industry, considering all the closures that you have mentioned, how much do they represent of the European capacity? How much capacity has been taken out in the industry over that period of time, roughly speaking?
David Placet
Sure. The European market, if you really look broad scope basic definition, is around 20 million tonnes.
We estimate a furnace on average tends to be around 100 ktonnes. There's been, including ours, I think we're now at 22 furnace closure announcements, around 20.
Basically 10% of European capacity.
Saul Casadio
That's good. My last one, if I may, is on your IG commitment, and clearly noted what you have done on the dividend in terms of reduction and the option to take it in a share form, reducing the cash out.
Question is: do you think that will be enough to stay IG, or do you need to do more to maintain your rating? Thanks.
Patrice Lucas
Yes, this is our plan, and this is why we have proposed in full responsibility this dividend option. What we see where it could put our leverage at the end of the year if we do the job, this is a nice trajectory which will keep our investment grade.
For sure. This is the plan.
This is one of the key commitment we have.
Saul Casadio
Okay. Thank you.
Appreciate it.
Patrice Lucas
Especially working on the cash as well, huh? For sure.
Thank you.
Operator
There are no more oral questions at this time. I hand the conference back to the speakers for the written questions.
David Placet
All right. Thanks a lot.
We have quite a few written questions. Having said this, as is often the case, some are pretty much the same as the one we had on the call.
Let me just have a look. Let's start maybe with the first question from Matej Kovac.
Two questions. First one is: with the closures, will you be able to restore the EBITDA margin with increased capacity utilization, or is this a preventive move from you to stop the decline going forward?
Second question: on a demand side, do you see a changing mix in the past couple of quarters that could affect the profitability in the future?
Patrice Lucas
On the first question about restoring the EBITDA margin, obviously it's part of the objective, improving competitiveness, and over time, restoring and improving our margin, EBITDA and margin. This is part of it.
I do believe that, since 2024, and with a market downturn in '23, we are in a kind of low cycle. Frankly speaking, we were expecting a much more quicker recovery, but what we are quite confident in is this cycle will go up, we'll move from a low cycle to a better cycle.
When we see the overcapacity being reduced over time, especially in the main countries, we do believe that is going to support a better asset use, and all of that with one key objective, which is restoring and improving margins. This is what we want to do.
On the demand side, this is what we have explained, and we are part of that. What we see globally is that we see that non-alcoholic beverage and food are much more segments which are showing opportunity of growth, and we see that on the other, it's much more flat-ish, or even on still wine, declining depending on the countries.
Obviously there is a mix of segments, and what is important for us is to make sure that we are focusing as well our sales effort, our product offers, our innovations on this growing segments. Food is clearly one, and this is why, by the way, in Italy last year, we did open additional capacity dedicated to food, which will bring some upside starting in '26 and in the years to come.
This is what we see here.
David Placet
Thank you, Patrice. Another question from Claudio De Ranieri: 'You talked about a normalization of the spread towards zero in '26.
Is this comment made looking at the full year, or does it mean that you plan to be towards zero at the end of the year, for example, Q4 '26?'
Patrice Lucas
Our ambition here is the full year. Speaking full year, and again with the caveat of a mix, the mix which is difficult to control, but the full year is our objective, yeah, towards zero.
David Placet
Thank you. Two questions from Andrea Trovarelli: 'Can you provide a guidance for leverage by end of year and for '27?'
Question about IG, I think that one was answered already. One question about 'visibility on the margin in Q1 '26?
Is it sequentially stable, up, or weaker?' I think on leverage, frankly, we clearly expect it to come down.
I think you can fairly easily do the math. You're planning for around €220 million in free cash flow minus the restructuring cash outs that Patrice referred to.
On the other hand, we have a maximum cash out of €20 million on dividend. That gives you an idea basically of the deleveraging prospect.
I think on the margin in Q1 '26, I don't think we want to comment necessarily on that one, maybe just keeping in mind that last year was quite a low point in the year in Q1. I think we were at 18%, just clearly room for improvement there.
Okay. Just to see whether there's a few questions, but I think, yeah, question from Inigo Egusquiza: 'Pricing and volumes in 2026 by region?'
I think we're not sure we want to go much further on this one. 'The cost of the capacity shutdown,' we've covered, and indeed I confirm that the €220 million free cash flow target excludes the restructuring cash out.
Yes. With that, we have no further written questions.
I don't know if there's anything back on the phone? Okay.
Operator
The next question comes from Jean-François Granjon from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.
Jean-François Granjon
Yes, thank you. Just one last question from my side.
You mentioned the target to come back to a more normative level for the EBITDA margin. What is this level?
Because I see on the past on the low end you have reached 20%, 21% EBITDA margin, after that you are more on a magnitude between 24%, 25% with an exceptional year in '23 to reach more than 28%. What is for you the normative level for the group?
I would say 24%, 25%, or lower than that?
Patrice Lucas
Jean-François, this is a very good question, and you're going to have to be patient a little bit. We'll be back to you with a Capital Market Day at the end of the year.
Jean-François Granjon
Yes, for sure.
Patrice Lucas
No, but this is the name of the game, huh? How we can improve the efficiency of our business step-by-step and normalizing the situation after this quite volatile and difficult to manage top line level.
Obviously '26, and this is why again we want to be cautious with the top line, self-concentrated on making our job on what we do control, and then, obviously improving the margin, and then moving towards step-by-step an incremental improvement year after year. We will be back to you for the Capital Market Day with more details.
Jean-François Granjon
Yes. Thank you.
Patrice Lucas
Thank you. I think we are done.
Thanks a lot for your attention and for your continued engagement with Verallia. Again, we are entering in '26 with clear priorities: competitiveness, cash generation, deleveraging, and the implementation of our industrial footprint adaptation in Europe.
All of that with disciplined capital allocation. Thanks a lot, have a good day, and speak to you quite soon for Q1 Q1 results.
Thanks a lot.
David Placet
Thank you.
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