Credito Emiliano S.p.A.

Credito Emiliano S.p.A.

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 6, 2026

Stefano Morellini

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you so much for connecting. Here close to me, we have the Co-General Director, Giuliano Cassinadri, and my colleagues managing the Valore, value, and investor relations areas.

I am so proud to walk you through very important numbers concerning excellent results, which is what we managed to have thanks to our strategy, also thanks to the way we do banking, and especially thanks to our people, their professionalism and their determination. Also for 2025, we reconfirm our strengths.

This is much more than numbers or figures of data, but we can say that we have turned those numbers into a real actual impact on the local communities, on the territory. We've also strengthened and improved the trust of our economic partners and of our customers.

As a matter of fact, you can see that the financial support to families and companies is growing. This is a commitment for us and it translates into extraordinary results and into a concrete encouragement in order to grow the economic fabric of the country.

Now, we've been doing this since 2013, let me highlight this. After 12 years, this is the 12th consecutive year where we can see an increase to loans for customers.

We will strengthen our driving role into managing savings. We are working together with our customers, hand-in-hand with our customers for strategic advisory services and custom-made solutions for every single financial need.

Last but not least at all, we keep investing into technologies because we want to turn all of our internal processes and we also want to change our services. There's an unstoppable integration of digital systems, our multichannel proposal.

We are now able to offer an easier, personalized, safer banking experience, ready to take up the challenges of the future. Before sharing with you results, I would like to reiterate the following.

Reaching those targets was made possible thanks to the work and to commitment of an extraordinary team that every single day puts our own mission right at the center of our effort. We want to create value and well-being.

They both have to be sustainable over the years. Once again, I would like to wholeheartedly thank our professionals and our staff.

Thank you so much for what you have done. Can I please have slide number 2, and let me start with the results of 2025.

I will also be adding some comments on the growth performances we have enjoyed together with our positioning. Slide number 3, please.

Now, you can see here the, well, main results that we were able to get. The year closes with €621.5 million benefits.

There's a positive value generated by the merchant acquiring. Net of this, our profits would be €522.8 million.

This means that it is a normalized profitability that stays on very high level, double-digit. ROE, ROTE are 14.1% and 12.4% respectively, once again.

As for AQ, asset quality, this is right at the top of the Italian and European banking system. NPL ratio is 1.6%.

The net value of the indicator is 0.7%. There's a very high level of capital generation.

This means that we can maintain a very sturdy, solid capital position. The CET1 ratio is 15.82%, and this is much higher than the regulatory minimum level for 2026.

Now, this asset ratio already includes the proposal of a dividend that would be €0.75 per share. Let me now walk you through the dimension growth values in table number 4.

The growth strategy keeps generating better results versus the average of the system, thus confirming the effectiveness of our business model in different economic cycles. Now, in particular, I have to say that loans show a yearly growth by 3.6% versus the 1.1% of the general system.

As for direct collection, in this case, we have an increase by 3.8%. This is 2 percentage points higher than the average number of the Italian banking industry.

We will wrap up 2025 with a significant production of net collection. This is our best number ever, and it reaches €6.4 billion, of which €3 billion managed loans and insurance.

Now, this performance shows a very important message concerning the trust and confidence of our customers in terms of managing their savings. All of this translates into a crucial element for the development of the commission components into the next phase, which will be the stabilization of the rates.

There is not just volumes, because we keep developing our customer base. In the past 12 months, customer base is now 1.7 million customers, with a yearly growth of 5.8%.

Let me now share with you the details on the sources of profits, which is slide number 5. We keep rebalancing our inflows.

What is even more important is the incidence of the recurrent services margin, which is now 45%, while what we can see is a reduction of the financial margin because it follows naturally the dynamics of the rates. I would like to highlight that throughout 2025, the dynamic of the core revenues, now even if the make-up or composition was different, was on a quarterly basis constantly growing up.

Now, this is an excellent message in terms of looking at the future, well, especially because this is confirming that accurate and prudential leverage, the diversification of its own business in order to support the revenue components, thus readapting, readjusting the various current scenarios, thus aiming at sustainable growth in the medium-long term. In the next slide, number 6, you will see the following.

The commercial bank, together with the para-banking companies plus CC, or consumer credit, even if the rates went down in the past 12 months, they've been able to close the year on excellent levels. This is what happened thanks to the excellent quality of the assets.

Credem Banca, not considering the capital gain, which is the cession of the merchant acquiring, we have a net profits of €275.1 million. Now, the contribution is for more than 44% to the consolidated balance sheet, while the para-banking sector, consumer credit and technology, wraps up the year with €86.1 million.

In this case, the incidence of the consolidated result is around 14%, 1-4%, once again, growing versus last year. Thanks to the excellent development of the loans managed and the unstoppable work of our networks, the aggregate, the wealth plus private closes 2025 with a comprehensive net result of €175.1 million.

Once again, this accounts for 28% of the total consolidated balance sheet. Now, these results confirm the importance having a diversified business model.

This means we can exploit or leverage at best all of the internal synergies in order to extract value plus profitability in different market context. I am pretty sure that, for us, this will be a distinctive factor as well as a competitive advantage also in the near future.

Anyway, we'll be back on this topic in a few minutes. Next slide, number 7, please.

As for the financial margin, this is going up versus the previous quarter, and once again, this confirms the dynamic or the behavior that we saw throughout 2025. On a yearly basis, the impact has to do with the movement or evolution of rates, but we've been able to wrap up 2025 slightly better than our forecast.

What is very important is the result of core services margin level. Net of the non-recurring components, for example, the trading and the performance fees.

Now, this progression allows the total revenues to have a growth of more than 3% versus the previous quarter, while on a yearly level, we have to consider the smaller financial margin, we also have to consider the smaller level of performance fees that've been significant in 2024. Despite the commitment, a strong commitment of the group in order to keep growing in terms of new hires, but also in terms of very intense activities made of projects and IT developments, again, I'll be back on IT in a few minutes, the growth of operating growth is limited, it is only 3.4%.

Now, this means that we have an excellent operating result, which is €838.1 million. The cost of risk, as you can see here, is extremely small.

On a yearly basis, it reaches 13, 1-3, basis points. We wrap up 2025 with net profits at €621.5 million or €522.8 million net of the capital gain that I have mentioned before having to do with the transfer of merchant acquiring, MA.

Next slide, please, number 8. Now, as I said before, the financial margin or net interest income has registered throughout 2025 an excellent quarterly progression after the most significant effect having to do with the reduction of the first quarter and despite the continuous reduction of interest rates.

We are sure that for 2026, the big challenge would be to further reduce the volatility level of the interest income or financial margin, thanks to the expansion of volumes and the protection of the commercial bifurcation. In slide number 9, you can see that we confirm an excellent protection of our commercial profitability, especially when compared to the system level.

As compared to the Q4 2024, the average drop of our commercial bifurcation seems to be 31 basis points versus a 57 bp or basis points on average for the system. This is due to the excellent capacity of the group in maintaining quite a good profitability on loans, and especially in terms of reducing as quickly as possible the cost of direct collection.

That cost had been impacted throughout 2023 and 2024 by the strong request of dead-end products. In slide number 10, you can see the securities portfolio.

In that case, we carried out purchases basically on Italian govvies, around €900 million in Q4. This means that the portfolio is now worth around €12 billion.

As for duration, the Italian govvies is reduced. This means we've been able to maintain a general portfolio duration at around 3.6 years.

The incidence of Italian govvies reaches 42%, with a HTC component which is up to 82%. We maintain an important focus on the market, and we do this because we would like to take advantage of possible benefits, but we also would like to take advantage of opportunities to increase volumes.

In slide number 11, you can see that we are absolutely satisfied thanks to the expansion of commission levels. I would like to highlight that this aggregate number in terms of recurrent components, we have to exclude from the total the financial activity and the performance fees.

As for Q4, we have seen an increase by around 4% versus the same quarter 2023. Out of the total, you can see the incidence of smaller performance commissions versus Q4 2024, again.

It is with trust and confidence that I reiterate that this aggregate will be the main driver of the revenues components in the next quarters, thanks especially to the very strong synergies between the networks and the product firms that our business model is offering. Let me give you some details.

There's been a strong production of net collection this year, this translates into an excellent evolution of management commission, net of performances, which are able to reach €135.1 million. Now, this aggregate number for this quarter also includes quite a good contribution thanks to the placement effort.

A remarkable growth by around 9% versus the same time window 2024. As for wealth management, we also have an increase of the insurance business, which reaches €27.1 million that accounts for, what accounts for the contribution of bank commission is €50 million.

If you make a comparison with the rest of the year, of course, there's an impact due to the lesser contribution from merchant acquiring, which is what we have transferred at the beginning of 2025. It is equal to four, four is the contribution of the financial activity, and this is due to the fact that there haven't been significant benefits we got in the quarter.

Slide number 12 shows you that we can keep a sustainable cost level on a medium-term basis, that it is consistent with the growth of the size of the group. You can see the number of hires going up in the last 12 months.

This has driven the dynamics on staff costs. We have a low turnover level in terms of employees, and we are focusing so much on further strengthening of the network together with young talents having specific external competencies and skills.

This is fundamental to drive the evolution of the group and the digital and technological profile. Now, the number of the last quarter is even better than the number we had in Q4 '24.

This is also due to the lesser impact of those components having to do with the evolution of operating income. As we already told you in the previous conference calls, the administrative fees are directly correlated to the IT developments plus the intense project activities in order to further improve the internal processes of our bank, the service model we implement, as well as the IT architecture of the group.

We're following consequent benefits in terms of strategic positioning considering the business what we have in the future. In slide number 13, as I as I said before, you can see that this is the 12th year in a row where we see a growth of loans to customers.

This is what we have done going through different economic and financial scenarios. Now, this confirms the extraordinary work done by our group, central offices, commercial or sales networks.

This is also due to the effectiveness of our business model. Plus 3.6%, once again, this is so significant, especially when compared to the growth of the system that only does plus 1.1%.

Let me give you some details. You can see a growth of 5.2% short-term loans, residential mortgage and leasing respectively 3.2% and 3.8%, while consumer credit, CC, is driven by Avvera, shows an increase by 11.1% year-on-year and reaches €4.1 billion.

As I previously told you when commenting the results of the first half of the year, we did an excellent job with our networks in terms of consulting and advisory services to companies. This translated into an increase of gross loans to companies in 2025 by plus 15.6% versus the number we had in 2024.

We do know that we will have to consider a market scenario that will be very challenging, and we will also see an increase of competitiveness. Now, we are absolutely sure that we'll be able to keep having overperformances versus the industry, and we will keep increasing our market share also for 2026.

This is consistent with our organic growth project. Next slide will be number 14.

I'm so proud to tell you that we will be closing 2025 with the net production level, which is the highest ever. Net collection increases and reaches €6.4 billion.

If we exclude corporate, we would be having €6.7 billion. What is significant is the net flows and managed collection, €3 billion.

This goes well beyond expectations we had at the very beginning of the year. These levels are contributing and they will be contributing to our business in the next quarters, once again, they will increase the commission level.

This means that they will increase the revenues in the current context and stabilization of interest rates. We have an excellent result in terms of administered, managed collection and direct collection, both with a net production which is around €1.7 billion each.

Let me highlight once again that the growth strategy, the organic growth strategy, also depends on the expansion of collection. It also depends on the fact of getting new customers, and at the same time, we want to keep being the real benchmark or reference point in terms of managing their savings.

Now, these numbers are showing you that we are doing all of this in the right way, and yes, I can confirm you that we have challenging targets and objectives of this kind also for the years to come. Slide number 15.

Now, the excellent dynamic of net production has given a contribution to the growth of collection from customers reaching €114 billion. Direct collection growth by 3.8% versus the end of '24.

What is significant is the expansion of the managed collection plus insurance business reaching €48.2 billion. The growth in that case is around 10% versus 2024.

Now, this happened thanks to the excellent net production that I have commented a couple of minutes ago. In table 16, as I said before, we will close the year with a cost of risk which is 13, 1-3, basis points.

This is an excellent number in Italy, but also in the rest of Europe. Now, this happened thanks to a very low level of deteriorated credit and they are going down.

Now we have €615 million, NPL ratio is 1.6%. Now, we are not seeing a significant size of deterioration, and our default level is one of the lowest levels of the industry, which is only 0.42% plus.

Let me now talk about 2026. We will be focusing on the current economic scenario, but at the same time, I can confirm you that one of our targets is to be well below 20 bps in terms of cost of risk also for the next 12 months.

This is slide number 17. Now, if you also analyze the hedging, the coverage that we have in our group, well, our group Credem is right at the top of the sector in Italy, but also in Europe.

The coverage ratio is now 59.2%. Now, this number, if you consider also the additional coverage generated by coverage pillar 1 together with the attendium, reaches in general 60.5%.

Now, those levels will guarantee the fact of having a competitive advantage position in case the scenario changes, which is what happened in the recent past, and this also gives us the opportunity to keep working with determination in our growth strategy. Next slide will be number 18.

It is with so much satisfaction that I can tell you that our MREL requirement, it has improved. MREL was reduced by more than 3 percentage points versus the MREL required for 2025.

Now, MREL is going very well, once again, the authority told us that we did an excellent job, the buffer improves. In terms of bonds, the only, well, change versus the previous quarter is the use of the recall option on €107.5 million of T2 Credem Vita.

In the next table, number 19, you can see that also during the closing of 2025, we keep a very high level of NSFR and L. Now, basically, the first one is 141%, LCR is 177%.

In slide number 20, I would like to wrap up the first section in my presentation by showing you our asset position. As for CET1 ratio in terms of banking group, but also in terms of prudential, on Credemholding, reach respectively 16.99% and 15.82%, thus confirming the very strong capacity of the group to be able to generate capital in an organic way even if we grow at a high pace, much bigger, higher, quicker than the average of the system.

The expansion of our risk-weighted assets, RWA, this is due to Basel IV, but it's also due to the expansion of the volumes. Now, this is more than offset by benefits generated by also considering there's a dividend proposal which is €0.75 per share already included into these numbers.

Furthermore, as for duration, we also have to consider the impact by 11 bps due to the sell-off, if you will, of the provisions due to the latest Italian financial law. Now, the total requirement for 2026 is 8.35%.

Now, this requirement already includes the new T2R, which is 1.25%. This is the lowest in the Italian banks directly controlled by the European Central Bank.

Our buffer stays very high, very reassuring, which is 727 bps. Next slide will be number 21.

Now, just a couple of minutes for, considering the growth in our future positioning. This is now slide 22.

Here we go. In the last four years, we've been able to increase by more than 13, 1-3%, the level of our loans to customers.

In terms of absolute value, we have €4.5 billion. We have acquired new direct collection money, €6 billion, and first and foremost, we've been able to increase indirect collection in a very, very significant way.

From €55.8 billion in '21, we now have €73.4 billion in 2025. Now, the increase was around 31%, and in absolute values, this turns into more than €18 billion growth.

Now, this progression brought us to have a comprehensive growth of our TB, total business, by €28.2 billion over the last four years, which means plus 23%. Now, this is confirming once again the execution capacity we have, we can grow organically and sustainably.

In slide 23, you can see that after 2024, that was really excellent, well, 2025 is anyway on revenues levels versus 2021, which is still very significant. This means we have increased our revenues components in a structural way by more than 40%.

Furthermore, our current size and the growth objectives we keep having will allow us to have a continuous expansion of revenue flows. I can also tell you that we look at the next 24 months.

Thanks to the synergies with our networks and firms, in 2027, we think we will go back to the total revenues level we had in 2024, with a different balance, so much more balanced between commissions on the one side and financial interest on the other. In slide number 24, you can see that in the recent years, in the past years, which is what we also told you in the previous conference calls, have been characterized by strong commitment by our group in terms of technology and digital developments.

There's been an intense activity in terms of projects, and it was aimed to generally refreshing the facility management backbone. Now, this result is changing, and it will be improved in the future significantly.

It will change our IT backbone together with our positioning so that we can better seize the opportunities of the next technological revolutions, thus translating them into performance increases, resiliency, and once again, cybersecurity. We will then be able to focus our future investments in five main strategic drivers: the broader and the range of products because, of course, we want to respond to the needs of our customers; we will support our supply chains to maximize synergies, thus improving efficiency and effectiveness of our business model; the reduction of the expenditures and costs thanks to the continuous optimization of processes plus the adoption of an operating model which will be more and more digital and effective; we will have TI, technological innovations, so as to speed up the commitment of the group in the adoption and use of new technologies, for example, the data intelligence at the service of the business together with the improvement of customer experience; last but not least, we will have a continuous improvements of the IT safety and security systems improvements thanks to the new IT backbone as well as the investments that we will take into account for new technologies.

Slide number 25, this is to draw the conclusions of this call. Now, I wish to highlight our competitive positioning today, also in terms of the next challenges that we will be taking up.

Now, we will have a very high level of, let's say, challenge take-up. Our business model is diversified and comprehensive.

We can generate value in many different economic cycles. The creation of synergies within the business model that we have will also go through our excellent capacity of execution.

As we've been showing also in the past, this will be crucial in order to have the expansion of the size of our group. Furthermore, as I said a couple of minutes ago, the seamless internal innovation plus the digital revolution that we are performing will turn into a strong support to the management of human relations.

We would like to increase the value of our human digital model, which is absolutely essential in order to develop revenues, especially in terms of commission flows. Last but not least at all, in a scenario which is still characterized by strong uncertainties, our Credem Group is one of the soundest groups in Europe.

We have plenty of attractiveness in terms of new customers, but also in terms of sustainability because we believe in our group strategy, we also would like to keep developing all of our business lines. Now, this is it with my presentation.

Don't hesitate if you have questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call operator.

We can now start the Q&A session. If you want to ask a question, please dial star followed by 1 on your phone.

If you want to get out of the booking list, please dial star followed by 2. Please ask your questions by using the receiver of your phone.

Question number one comes from Luigi De Bellis, please go ahead.

Luigi De Bellis

Thank you. Luigi De Bellis, Equita SIM.

I have three questions. The first one is on the interest margin.

Considering the current rate, could you give us some color on your expectations for 2026? If it would be possible, 2027, because you talked about wanting to go back to the same revenue levels you have in 2024, plus the main drivers on the loan and liquidity expected.

Question number two: could you give us some color on the sensitivity on the interest margin considering rate increase, for example, with 50 and 100 basis points? The last question is on the competitive scenario on the private banking wealth management.

There's a project from Intesa Sanpaolo in order to increase the number of consultants. Can this have an impact on the competition of the market, attracting talents from other networks?

What is the competitive scenario you see in terms of recruiting and retention of consultants, and also in terms of collection for the managed savings in 2026? Thank you.

Stefano Morellini

Thank you. The first question on sensitivity will go to Mr.

Cucchi from the Valore department. I will answer the second and the third question on the financial margin, 2026 expectations, together with the project concerning PB, Private Banking.

Alessandro Cucchi

Good morning, Luigi. Now, as for the sensitivity, we have a parallel increase of 100 basis points.

In that case, we have €98 million. In case of same-time or parallel reduction, 100 basis points, minus €54, €54 million.

Stefano Morellini

Now, as for the other questions on the financial margin or interest margin, well, what we foresee for 2026 is an interest margin which would be flat. Now, if you consider the result we managed to reach in 2025 thanks to the volumes generated in 2025, but also due to the rate coverage strategies, well, they will be able to offset the impact of average rates that would be lower than the average of the recent months.

Now, as for the, well, attention, if you will, to volumes, well, our target was the following: we would like to reach the end of 2026 with an increase which would be slightly higher and growing, the target is 3%, thus contributing with a significant dynamic also for the next year. Now, as for the topic having to do with, if you will, wealth management and private banking.

Now, first and foremost, I may tell you that for this year, 2026, the simple objective is €4.5 billion direct and indirect collection, of which almost €3 billion of managed collection and insurance business. Under this profile, a very important role will be played by Credem Euromobiliare Private Banking.

Now, in the recent years, but also at the very beginning of this year, 2026, I have to say that we haven't had any difficulty in continuing our recruiting activity and development in terms of internal lines, but also thanks to, let's say, external recruitment, private consultants, financial consultants as well. Among other things, in Credem Euromobiliare Private Banking, we will keep having them together with Credem Banca, where, as we have another channel dedicated to financial consulting services.

I have to say that competition will increase as you said, but well, for the time being, no, we don't see any difficulty under this point of view. Rather the opposite.

We are really seizing opportunities that are coming as a consequence of our transactions and operations on the market. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Giovanni Razzoli, Deutsche Bank.

Giovanni Razzoli

Good morning. I just have one question.

Will you ask European Central Bank, if at all possible, to apply the calculation on assets on banking group level instead of holding level? If so, how long would it take?

Thank you.

Stefano Morellini

Good morning, Giovanni. Now, as at the end of 2025, last year, the directive has been harmonized into the Italian regulations.

It was published in the Official Journal. Apart from those two steps, it may be necessary to wait for the harmonization of those instructions into the surveillance instructions or the so-called 285.

These are the steps required to define the right legal framework so that we can really work with the European surveillance systems so as to shift the scope. This is not automatic, don't forget about this.

Today, we have, well, significant levels, but in terms of timing, as I said before, well, it depends on when we are able to start the dialogue. I would say reasonably within 2026, we will be able to get some indications about this, but this is not sure.

Giovanni Razzoli

Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Matteo Panchetti, Mediobanca.

Matteo Panchetti

Good morning, thank you. I have a couple of questions.

The first one concerns your commissions. What are the expectations for 2026?

Can you give us some color concerning the key drivers? My second question is on the distribution of capital because we saw that over the years, CET1 grows, and have you considered a possible increase of the, well, dividend payment?

Third question: as for P&L, where do you see possible upside in 2027, the highest level? Thank you.

Stefano Morellini

Question number one, it concerns the commission levels. As for the 2026 guidance on banking fees, what we expect is slightly better result versus the one we got in 2025.

Let me talk about the management and intermediation or brokerage commission because the dynamic of the 2025 production will guarantee a high level of returns on management recurring commissions, net of the performance fees. In 2025, but also in 2026, this line will be the main driver for the growth of income.

This is what highlighted previously. We're very happy of the attractiveness dynamic, and new flows of money that happened in 2025.

This will lead to an increase of this revenue line. Once again, we won't consider performance fees, and it will be well above 5%.

Of course, it depends on the evolution and development of the market because, as you know very well, they may have an impact on the value of the masses. As for this question, I think that this is it.

I've given you the main drivers that will guide us also this year. Now, as for the other question concerning the payment to dividend, as you must have seen, the Board of Directors decided to propose the confirmation of the dividend we already had last year.

I need to highlight this, profits level in terms of recurrent levels, well, this level is lower than the one we had last year. I think this is an important positive message because it shows a very special focus on the market, and again, it confirms a very stable remuneration for our solid shareholders base.

This means that there would be a growth of DPS over the years. We've always shown, as a group, to be able also in difficult economic cycle to pay always and consistently dividends.

This is what we've been doing for almost 20 years. The exception was 2020 because of the ECB recommendations.

Anyway, well, the future, if you will, strategy on the dividend will be decided once again by the Board of Directors. As for your last question, if I'm not mistaken, the question was on our position on incomes, for 2026, right?

We do have a target. We would like to get close, as I said before, to what we got in 2025.

This means we want to guarantee stability and growth, especially on some components.

Operator

If you want to ask a question, please dial star followed by 1 on your telephone. Mr.

Morellini, for the time being, we don't have other questions pre-booked.

Stefano Morellini

Thank you very much. Would like to thank you for listening, for your patience, and I wish you a nice continuation of the day.

Thank you very much for attending.

Operator

This is the Chorus Call operator. The conference call is over.

You can disconnect your devices. Thank you.