Operator
Good afternoon. We welcome you to EDPR's 2025 final year results presentation conference call.
During the presentation, all participants will be on a listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity to ask questions after the presentation.
If you wish to ask a question during the question-and-answer session, you need to press *11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.
To withdraw your question, please press *11 again. Alternatively, you may also submit questions on the webcast at any time by typing them in the question box and click Submit.
If you are experiencing difficulty in listening to the conference at any time, please make sure that you have your headset fully plugged in, or alternatively, please try calling from a different device. I will now hand the conference over to Mr.
Miguel Viana, Head of IR and ESG. Please go ahead.
Miguel Viana
Hello and welcome everyone. Thank you for joining EDPR's 2025 results conference call.
We are pleased to have with us today our CEO, Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade, and our CFO, Rui Teixeira. They will walk us through the key financial highlights of the period and share insights into our strategy.
After the presentation, we will open the floor for questions, and you are welcome to submit via the conference chat or ask them directly over the phone. The session is scheduled to last no more than 60 minutes.
With that, I will now hand it over to Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade to begin the presentation.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
Thank you, Miguel. Good afternoon everyone, and thank you very much for attending our 2025 results conference call.
Just before we move into EDPR's results, I just wanted to take a brief moment to acknowledge the severe storms that recently affected Portugal, in particular Storm Christine at the end of January. As some of you may be aware, but maybe others haven't been following, this was a really exceptional weather event with significant impact on the communities, on the electricity networks operated by EDP in Portugal.
First and foremost, our thoughts are with the people in the communities affected. Having personally witnessed up close the devastation on the ground over the past couple of weeks, I think clearly a lot of work to rebuild the area, and we're also contributing to that at a social level.
I'd also like to take a moment to recognize and extend a sincere word of appreciation for the absolutely extraordinary efforts of all the teams, both internal and external, involved in the response and in the recovery in extremely adverse conditions. I just wanted to highlight also the fantastic collaboration and coordination with the national and local authorities that allowed the networks business, E-Redes, to recover 100% of the customers, with only still a few specific situations outstanding, and that we believe will be resolved very, very shortly.
The teams have been working flat out nonstop, weekends and holidays, to get the energy back to everyone as quickly as possible. From EDPR perspective, the direct operational and financial impact was limited.
Our renewable assets proved resilient, and the event does not change our fundamentals, the strategy, or the outlook. That said, at EDP's results call tomorrow we will give more detail, but as part of EDP Group, we just thought it was important to acknowledge the broader context in which we're operating, particularly when an extraordinary event impacts the system as a whole.
With that, okay, let's go to the first slide. Talk about EDPR's results and performance for 2025.
I'd start by saying that 2025 was really a very solid recovery versus 2024. Execution was the keyword, absolute focus on executing everything under our control.
We delivered on our targets, we kept a disciplined financial profile, and we set up a constructive base for 2026. On financial performance, recurring EBITDA reached around €2 billion, it's up 17% year-on-year, that's above our latest guidance level.
The underlying EBITDA was at around €1.9 billion, up 23%, confirming that the improvement is fundamentally operational. Recurring net profit recovered to around €0.3 billion, up 50% year-on-year.
Importantly, we delivered these results while keeping financial discipline. Net debt closed at €8.1 billion, slightly down versus 2024, consistent with our guidance, and the ratio net debt to recurring EBITDA improved from 4.9x in 2024 to 4.1x in 2025, a very strong improvement in our leverage position.
In terms of key operational drivers, we delivered the 2 GW of gross capacity additions, generation was up 11% to 40.6 TWh, and we navigated also a normalization in prices in Europe with the average selling price down 10% to €53 per megawatt-hour. Despite that, which was expected, the combination of top-line performance with efficiency initiatives supported the recovery in earnings.
That leads me to the point on efficiency. Core opex per average megawatt decreased 12% versus last year.
This really shows a huge improvement in efficiency, and quite honestly, very proud of this achievement. It was a tremendous effort done by the teams on the efficiency front, on leveraging economies of scale.
We actually ended up better than expected, and as I mentioned, that supported the recovery also in earnings. Asset rotation gains in the P&L were around €119 million, below 2024, but fully in line with the guidance, especially considering we were also very successful in rotating 49% of a large US portfolio, but as in that case the capital gain doesn't flow to the bottom line.
Overall, strong execution, improving profitability, and financial discipline, supporting a positive outlook going into 2026. Moving now to a little bit more detail on some of the key operational issues.
On slide 5, 2 GW long-term contracted additions, around 90% in North America and Europe. It's a good mix led by solar, 48%; wind onshore, 28%; and the growing weight of batteries, around 17%; offshore, a small project in France, 6%.
Then in terms of concrete execution milestones, this includes around half a gigawatt of solar in the US and 0.3 GW in Europe, including our first solar projects in Germany, around 0.3 GW of batteries in the US and also our first stand-alone battery in the UK, also around 0.2 GW of wind onshore in the US and around 0.2 GW in core European markets, including the start of operations, as I mentioned, of one of Ocean Winds' offshore projects in France. We deliver the planned capacity on time, on budget, and in line with guidance, with a contracted profile and a concentration in our core markets that supports the resilience and visibility going forward.
If we move forward to slide 6 talking about asset rotation in 2025, we had strong investor demand for high-quality assets. The gains were mostly concentrated in Europe, since as I mentioned, the US transactions were minority stake sales.
During the year, we rotated around 0.8 GW in five transactions in Europe, delivering €119 million of gains, with around 15% gains to invested capital, 20% if we excluded Spain, along with two deals of 49% stake in the US with proceeds reaching $1.5 billion given the attractive valuations. Just note that the Greece transaction closed in January 2026, the €0.2 billion of proceeds will only be accounted for in the first quarter of 2026.
If we move on to talk about additions, for 2026, we secured already the 1.5 GW of capacity additions, around 80% of that is already under construction. The remaining projects are expected to come online within the next couple of months or to start construction as scheduled, including also some of the solar DG that has an average 6-month construction time, and so still full of confidence on the delivery of the 1.5 GW of capacity for this year.
Most importantly, this is a very value-accretive growth, the portfolio is expected to return an average spread of around 275 basis points. We included just a couple of examples to illustrate the quality of the portfolio across the different technologies.
We have our Sonrisa project, it's solar and batteries in California, it's a 200 MW solar, 184 MW batteries. It's backed by a 20-year busbar PPA, a strong offtaker.
Meadow Lake IV repowering in Indiana, so that's around 100 MW, had a 50% uplift in production, and also captured an additional 10 years of PTC benefits, a material increase in profitability from this repowering. We also had a good hybrid solar in Poland, and a 20-year CFD wind project in Italy at €77.6 per megawatt-hour.
The takeaway is quite simple: the delivery of 2026 is de-risked and at attractive returns, and with long-term contracting, and this will also feed into our asset rotation that's expected for the year. If we move to slide 8 on contracting new projects, the contracting momentum has strengthened, and including after the business plan, the CMD presentation.
Just over the last six months alone, we've secured 1.3 GW at attractive returns, PPAs with utilities, big tech, we've done build-and-transfer agreements in the US, it's exactly the kind of de-risked growth that we wanted. For 2026-2028 period, we now have 2.8 GW secured, so as I said, 2026 fully covered, around 65% of 2027 already covered, and we expect to be covering the rest over the next couple of months, and 10% of 2028, total around 65% secured over the period '26 to '28.
This contracting progress is reducing the risk, it's increasing the cash flow visibility, and it's supporting also this disciplined execution into 2026 and beyond. Let's talk a little bit about the US.
I think I've been consistent about this in many of the previous interactions, both in these calls and also some of the investor presentations. The message on the US remains very positive.
The demand is structurally rising, and that's if the fundamentals aren't there, then it doesn't work. In this case, the fundamentals are there.
The IEA projects 2% annual electricity demand growth between 2026 and 2030. It's largely driven by data centers, and it's going to be supporting a strong runway for renewables, which is the fastest and most efficient and cheapest technology to be deployed.
We've discussed this in the past, but these are projects that can be supplied today to deliver power today, and that will help with issues around affordability and just the delivery of power in general in the US. On the supply side, for the US, and you can see that on the graph on the left-hand side, it's expected that it will have around 8% renewables CAGR over the period '25 to 2030, while the non-renewables grows much more modestly.
Obviously, there's some thermal coal, for example, coming offline, you have some gas coming online, but non-renewables much more modest growth compared to, for example, the renewables. Wood Mackenzie, independent consultant, estimates an average of around 25 GW of solar, 9 GW of wind additions per year for the period 2027 to 2030.
We're well positioned to capture that growth, we have strong visibility across the portfolio, we have 1 GW of PPAs under commercial discussions, and more than 20 GW pipeline with around 50% located in the MISO and PJM regions, which are two of the most attractive demand pockets. We have the policy and execution resilience also built in.
We have around 6 GW of safe harbor for wind and solar projects for CODs up till 2030. We have flexibility between annual additions, and this is excluding batteries, which as has a much longer timeframe in terms of tax credit visibility.
We're also capturing data center optionality directly. We've got around 2 GW of powered land, including 0.8 GW already in advanced permitting, mainly in ERCOT and PJM.
Then our approach continues to be disciplined. One of the issues we had a couple of years ago and that we've successfully, I think, adjusted is making sure we have a domestic content procurement strategy, including the First Solar framework agreement and also other US-made equipment like trackers, racking, inverters.
We see potential upside from repowering and also flexible repricing, but essentially on the procurement side, we feel very confident about the supply chain, and we also have these additional upsides towards the back end of the decade. Overall, bottom line, US market fundamentals are strong, EDPR has the pipeline, it's got the contracting momentum, and it's got the optionality to keep delivering the growth up to 2028 and beyond.
Turning to Europe, the message is also similar and clear. We're strengthening value creation, we've been extremely focused, we've got a leadership in the hybrid market where renewables remains structurally supported.
On the demand side, the outlook is also positive. Electricity demand in the European Union is still projected to grow at around 2% per year.
On the supply side, renewables is also expected to grow at around 8% CAGR up till 2030, while non-renewable sources are expected to actually decline by around 4%. Again, well positioned to capture this, we have a tangible pipeline, we have the commercial momentum, over 14 GW of pipeline in core European growth markets, over 8 or 0.8 GW of PPAs under advanced discussion, and around half a gigawatt ready to bid in upcoming auctions.
We are being very much execution-driven, deliberately low-risk, and we're focusing on core markets like Italy and France, where we can leverage some of the CFD auctions routes to market. We're also creating extra pathways to address other fast-growing demand from demand centers.
We have around 0.3 GW of powered land opportunities in Europe, namely in Germany and Poland, and we have some additional opportunities in Spain that will help us serve demand-centric demand as it emerges. On hybrids, it's the key differentiator, I think, for us.
We're leveraging our existing wind base to add solar and also to colocate solar with batteries, and that's helping us improve the resilience and the value capture as the volatility and flexibility increases. Overall, bottom line for Europe, disciplined growth story, focused markets, lower risk on the commercial side, and reliable execution using also hybrid solutions to enhance returns and competitiveness.
Just the final slide on this first section before I pass it over to Rui, talking about efficiency, because I think this was also one of the key drivers for the earnings growth, and it's independent of market conditions. Our adjusted core opex per average megawatt decreased by 12%.
At the same time, we streamlined the organization, headcount is down around 9%, we're becoming leaner, more focused, but staying execution-driven. This has to do with three key levers: so operational streamlining, cost discipline, leaner workforce model, and also scaling digital and AI to improve availability.
Overall, I think very proud of the effort that's been done here at all levels and in all the different geographies and platforms. As I say, really seeing sort of the benefits of the economies of scale coming through.
This is, I think, one of the best in class in terms of efficiencies. With that, I'll pause there and pass it over to Rui, and then I'll come back for closing remarks.
Thanks.
Rui Teixeira
Thank you, Miguel, and good afternoon to you all. Let's move to the 2025 numbers, starting on slide 13, and I would like to start with a strong increase in generation.
It went up by 11% to 40.6 TWh. This was supported by capacity additions, lower losses, even though we had a renewable resource weaker than the long-term average.
On the left-hand side, you can see that the renewables resource index was 95% in 2025 versus 98% in 2024. This was driven by lower wind conditions.
Europe saw its lowest wind levels in 45 years. North America had its weakest September and the third quarter since 1989.
Again, this was region-wide, not portfolio-specific. On the right-hand side, EDPR, you can see, generated an additional 4 TWh year-on-year from higher average megawatt in operation, improved losses, supported also the year-on-year increase.
Again, this, as I said, partially offset by the resource, also some impact from the asset rotation perimeter. Please also note that solar generation increased by 77%, and this is obviously reflecting the growing portfolio.
If we now move to slide 14, electricity sales increased by 1% year-on-year to €2.15 billion, with higher volumes offsetting lower prices. The average selling price declined from €58.9 per megawatt-hour to €53, and this is reflecting the normalization impact in Europe that was already expected.
Regionally, the mix is also clear, you can see that on the left-hand side. North America contributed to an additional €145 million year-on-year, supported by both higher volumes, in total 23.3 TWh, so that's a 16% increase year-on-year, and also higher prices, with the average selling price up 4% to $47.4 per megawatt-hour.
Europe was down €137 million year-on-year, with volumes broadly flat at 11.5 TWh, but as I said, pricing normalizing and decreasing 13% to an average price of €80.1 per megawatt-hour. South America improved by €6 million, supported by higher volumes, 4.2 TWh, this is a 32% increase, while the average selling price was slightly lower, on Brazilian reais, R$180.8 per megawatt-hour, so that's approximately -2%.
APAC was broadly stable. If we move now to EBITDA on slide 15, the underlying recurring EBITDA grew 23% year-on-year, increasing by €159 million in this period, again, excluding asset rotation gains.
Starting from the left of the bridge, electricity sales were up 1% year-on-year to €2.15 billion. Tax equity revenues were up by €118 million to €421 million, mainly driven by the solar additions that benefit from the ITCs, and this is offsetting the gradual phaseout of wind PTCs.
Asset rotations contributed €119 million, in line with our guidance. On the cost side, and as Miguel said, it's very good efficiency and very good results.
Core opex was €766 million, on adjusted basis, adjusted core opex per average megawatt improved 12%, and therefore this reflects all the efforts that Miguel already alluded to. Finally, other costs on a net basis was €48 million.
This line also reflects a cleaner underlying profile. So 2024, you may remember, it was impacted by losses in Colombia and Romania, while 2025 includes about €26 million of provision in Vietnam.
All in all, recurring EBITDA was €1.97 billion, with the underlying business mix continuing to shift toward our core markets, with North America at 59% of the underlying EBITDA, in Europe at 34%. If we now go to financial results, in 2025, increased by €109 million year-on-year, reached €482 million.
This increase is primarily due to a €1.5 billion rise in average net debt and the lower capitalization of financial expenses, following a €1 billion decrease of DP&E, working in progress, but also partially offset by FX and derivatives. Looking ahead, we expect this line to improve from 2026 onwards and keep declining across the business plan, mostly on the back of lower debt and lower tax equity unwinding costs.
Also highlighting that from a risk and liquidity standpoint, our profiles remain conservative. 74% of the debt is fixed, 26% variable.
We are well diversified by currency: 44% in euro, 37% in US dollar, 20% in other currencies. We maintain a solid maturity profile, with over 60% of our debt maturing beyond 2028, therefore reinforcing long-term financial stability.
I would like now to move to slide 17. Net debt closed the year at €8.1 billion, that's a reduction of €0.2 billion versus December 31st of 2024.
Gross investments totaled €2.4 billion, of which €2.2 billion was capex and approximately €0.2 billion financial investments; 55% in North America, 25% in Europe; 50% of this was invested in solar, 31% in wind onshore, and 12% in battery storage, with about 7% related to equity investments, including Ocean Winds and some capitalized expenses. Also in addition, we had a €0.5 billion working capital outflow linked to fixed asset suppliers.
In total, these investments were fully funded through €1.5 billion of asset rotation, €0.8 billion of tax equity proceeds, and very importantly, €0.6 billion of operating cash flow. Considering some FX and other impacts, net debt reduced by €0.2 billion to a total of €8.1 billion, also an improved net debt to EBITDA from 4.9 times to 4.1 times.
Also just reminding what Miguel mentioned in the beginning, this does not include yet the proceeds from the Greek transaction that only closed in January, about €0.2 billion. On the net profit, recurring net profit reached €330 million, effectively increasing fourfold year-on-year if we exclude capital gains.
As mentioned earlier, our recurring EBITDA increased 17% year-on-year, reflecting solid operational performance. Depreciation increased, driven by the new capacity additions, also a one-off impact from accelerated depreciation in repowering wind farm in the US, which is ongoing.
Taxes were higher this year on the back of lower asset rotation and some one-off costs that are not tax-deductible. We expect this to go down in the following years.
Minorities contributed positively year-on-year following the completion of the buyback of the 49% wind portfolio in late 2024. Here just to note that this line will be impacted in the coming year with the 49% stake that we sold in the asset rotation in the US this year.
Just to bear in mind that, please. Regarding the one-off impacts at net profit level, there are about €114 million recognized this year, and these are mainly coming from impairment in Europe, some including non-core countries, also Ocean Winds US platform, as well as accelerated depreciation of this repowering wind farm in the US, the Meadow Lake IV wind farm.
Also to note that the Board of Directors will propose in the 2026 General Shareholders Meeting to continue the scrip dividend program with a payout of 40%, and implying a maximum amount of 13 cents per share. Finally, just before I hand over to Miguel, let me just touch briefly on the sensitivity of EDPR's net profit to the wholesale power markets.
The updated 2028 net income sensitivity remains unchanged versus our CMD. If you consider a €5 per megawatt-hour movement in global electricity prices, it results or should result in a sort of €25 million impact on a net income level versus for 2028.
Currently what we are seeing the regional trends are: Europe that holds about 60% of the exposure, 2028 reference price is of around €64 per megawatt-hour, and the trend is currently downwards, and this is mainly driven by Spain, Poland, and Romania; US that has about 35% of the exposure, that has a reference price of $43, here the exposure is mostly on PJM and NYISO, and we are seeing an upward trend; also Brazil that holds about 15% exposure with a reference price of R$170 per megawatt-hour, also showing an upward trend on forward prices. Again to highlight that we have broadly a stable sensitivity due to portfolio and regional diversification.
Now, Miguel, back to you for closing remarks. Thank you.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
Thank you, Rui. Just three important messages.
The first is in relation to 2025: so strong execution delivery. We delivered on our commitments: 2 GW of capacity additions, €1.7 billion of asset rotation proceeds, and we closed the year with €2 billion of recurring EBITDA and around €330 million of recurring net profit.
We delivered. Second: good visibility for 2026.
We have all the capacity secured, and the majority is already under construction. We're guiding to a very strong €2.1 billion recurring EBITDA, and this is supported by high single-digit generation growth, an average selling price of around €52 per megawatt-hour versus €53 per megawatt-hour in 2025, and around €0.2 billion of asset rotation gains.
Just to frame the moving parts, because I know a couple of questions on this, this includes a more conservative euro-dollar exchange rate of around $1.18 versus around $1.16 we considered in November, aligned with the current spot rates and the average year-to-date. There's a slight adjustment here in terms of forex, but I'd say it's a very strong €2.1 billion recurring EBITDA guidance for the year.
Third: on track to deliver the 2028 targets that we already communicated back in the CMD. As Rui also mentioned, really the sensitivities, even to pool prices and others, are perfectly within what we consider our sort of range of confidence.
As we go on getting further visibility on 2028, but we have €7.5 billion of gross investments, around 5 GW that we've communicated of gross additions we expect to do for this period up to 2028, and that should take us to the €2.2 billion of recurring EBITDA in 2028, and around €0.6 billion of recurring net profit in 2028. Perfectly on track to deliver the 2028 targets, and I think still high confidence on that going forward.
With that, I'd stop there, and we can move to Q&A. Miguel, turn it over to you.
Operator
Thank you. We will begin by addressing the questions submitted in writing.
After that, we will move on to the live questions by phone. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question by phone, please press *11 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced.
Please ensure that your line is unmuted when your name is announced. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please type them in the question box and click Submit.
We will now begin with the written questions. Thank you.
Miguel Viana
Thank you very much. From the webcast, the first question comes from Olly Jeffery from Deutsche Bank, Pedro Alves from CaixaBank, and Alex from Bank of America.
We have a set of questions around the updated guidance for 2026, namely the EBITDA guidance of €2.1 billion, the rationale behind it, and if we are providing any more guidance for 2026.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
Thank you, Miguel. As I just mentioned and anticipating a bit this question, we think this is a very strong €2.1 billion.
The adjustment is really more related to an adjustment in the FX that we've been seeing slightly deteriorate since the CMD, but apart from that, very confident on the overall delivery. The other assumptions, whether it's in terms of volumes and in terms of prices, we continue to be confident on those.
I think overall, I wouldn't say there's any material change versus what we had.
Miguel Viana
We have then a question also from Deutsche Bank and CaixaBI around the target of 5 GW of gross capacity additions for the period 2026-2028, and if we see some upside or some update in terms of this number presented at our Capital Markets Day in November 2025, and namely regarding capacity additions for 2028.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
Here I'd just reiterate the message that we communicated also in the CMD. We think this is a very realistic business plan with optionality on the upside.
We are let's say assuming we'll be able to deleverage over this period, this will create some room, and so if we find projects that we think have the right risk-return, we will capture those, and those will be an upside to the 2028 targets volumes. Overall, yes, we do think there could be some upside, but it will be on the conditions that we think are reasonable.
Assume the base case, we'll have the space in the balance sheet to take that on, and if we find the right risk-return, then we'll certainly capture it. This is true for '28 and beyond, because I think the world doesn't end in 2028, and obviously '29 and 2030, we continue to see a lot of demand also coming down the pipeline for projects in that timeframe.
Miguel Viana
Thank you, Miguel. We have now a set of questions from Pedro Alves, CaixaBank; Alex from Bank of America, regarding the outlook of asset rotation execution for 2026, both in terms of asset rotation proceeds and gains.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
What I'd say on asset rotation execution is again, we delivered in 2025. Year after year after year, we've been delivering on the asset rotation against all the skeptics, both in terms of proceeds and in terms of sort of just the general demand and capital gains.
We continue to see good demand in the market going forward. We gave the guidance of around €0.2 billion for the capital gains for the period, and in terms of proceeds, I think we're at around €1.5 billion of proceeds.
Again, obviously, we'll go on updating you over the course of the year, but even based on recent comments, we think there's a lot of demand both from financial and strategic players for the type of assets that we have.
Miguel Viana
We have then a set of questions from Javier Garrido from JPMorgan, Fernando Garcia, RBC, Alex from Bank of America, that asks around our exposure on lower power prices in Europe versus our CMD assumptions, how this can impact our financial projections. We have covered a little bit in the presentation, but I don't know if you want to go more in detail.
Rui Teixeira
Absolutely. Because I also mentioned this as a sort of keeping the same sensitivity on the net profit.
Again, just to break this down: so first of all, for 2026-2028 period, around 85% of our generation is secured through long-term contracts or hedges, which means that only 15% is exposed to merchant prices, okay? Out of this 15%, 60% is Europe, and the rest is mostly in the US.
We're start talking about smaller numbers, but still within Europe, 15% merchant, 60% Europe, within Europe, Iberia is where we have about 60% of the exposure. There, because of the energy mix in Iberia, we see less impact from CO2 price volatility and gas, because typically gas has less number of hours as a marginal technology versus other markets.
Also, we have exposure in Poland and Romania, and that is already incorporated into our sensitivity. Again, we are talking about 40% of 15% or 60% of 15%, talking about something like 4% of the entire portfolio.
US, on the other hand, the merchant exposure is really concentrated in PJM and NYISO, and we actually are seeing an improvement in forward prices, around about $5 per megawatt-hour into 2028 versus the assumptions that we were using on our business plan. Again, overall, I think what we are trying to convey is that it's really only 15% merchant exposure, and the fact that we have a diversified portfolio with different trends between Europe and United States, ultimately, it's making our sensitivity stable versus where we were at the CMD.
Miguel Viana
Thank you, Miguel. We have then a question about some news that came out today about our joint venture Ocean Winds and its Moray West project in UK regarding technical issues during the last months of 2025, and about the status of this issue.
The questions come from Zach from Jefferies, Pedro Alves from CaixaBank, and also Fernando Garcia from RBC.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
Thank you. Listen, it was a technical outage.
It is already programmed to be recovered within March, it's basically just depending on weather conditions. Most of the related losses are compensated either by insurance or by warranties from suppliers, and also the plant has benefited also with some of the merchant exposure.
All in all, this is not a material impact to Ocean Winds or EDPR. Then
Miguel Viana
on the written questions, the last one, we had some questions from Fernando Garcia, RBC, and some other analysts about the volumes lower in the fourth quarter 2025, prices more aligned with expectations, and also asset rotation. The driver for this outperformance on EBITDA in the fourth quarter 2025.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
Here, a couple of points. I think one has to do with just in general, we're more efficient, we managed to get the costs down.
That contributed also, better than expected. A second has to do with some other income associated with the mark-to-market of hedges and long-term contracts.
Also in 2024, the comparison, we had some losses in Colombia and Romania, which we didn't have in 2025. In general, it was other revenue that contributed, and also this additional efficiencies and costs being better than expected that contributed to the guidance or to being better than guidance.
Operator
Thank you, Miguel. We can now move to the questions on the phone, and I think the first question comes from the line of Jorge Alonso from Bernstein.
Jorge, please go ahead.
Jorge Alonso
Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple of questions, please.
The first one is related to the safe harbor capacity. You have put that you have already 6 GW, and then just a clarification about it.
That capacity should be used for the deployment from 2027 to 2030, I guess, in order to get the tax credits, so that gives above 1 GW a year in the US annually. The question is that are you really thinking on going ahead on that one?
If not, what to do with the spare capacity? Can you monetize that, or really, at the end you are thinking about just to use all that safe harbor capacity, meaning increase in the installations in the US by 2030 in an annual base?
Okay. The other question was on the average prices, especially, for example, in the US, just to understand if the increases that you are seeing 2025 and going forward comes more from the spot market or mainly from the new PPAs, or is balanced among the two?
Thank you very much.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
Thank you, Jorge. On the first one, the safe harbor numbers are 2025 to 2030, just to be clear.
What we can do is we then have flexibility to use those equipments in different projects, or in the limit, to resell them. In any case, our base case is to assume that we'll be using them over this timeframe, from 2025 to 2030, so that's around a gigawatt a year for the US.
That's the first one. On the second one, on the average prices for 2025 onwards, these are both spot and forward market.
We've seen, for example, the forwards in for 2028, I'm saying PJM and NYISO, also going up over the last 12, 24 months, but it's quite clear that there's that upward trend, which is, let's say, inversely correlated or at least going in a different direction from what's been happening in Europe. Just to be clear, on top of the safe harbor, batteries are not included in this, right?
This is just for mostly solar and wind, to a certain extent, and batteries is outside of this, because batteries we don't need safe harbor, because the tax credits extend well beyond 2030.
Jorge Alonso
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you, Jorge. The next question comes from the line of Jenny Ping from Citi.
Jenny, please go ahead.
Jenny Ping
Hi, thanks very much. A couple of questions from me, please.
Firstly, on numbers, it looks like Q4, you've incurred another €30 million what you call non-recurring charges, which is added back. Can you just give us a little bit more visibility on how to think about how to bucket these things outside what you've announced of nine months?
Then more importantly, going forward into '26, your net income targets through to '28, just want to get a sense of how much of these non-recurring items or further impairments or provisions that you're looking to add? Then beyond that, I guess just pushing a little bit more on the EBITDA guidance, I think your previous CMD sensitivities talks to 0.1 change on the FX to be about €40 million on the net income.
Given that you've moved from 1.16 to 1.18, the reduction seems to be quite severe in terms of sort of the middle of the range. Is there anything else you're building in there in terms of anticipated risks that you could see materializing in '26, please?
Thank you.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
Just in relation to the second one, and then Rui can take the first one. Just to be clear, when we give guidance, we try to be as accurate as possible, and so now based on the latest, we're more towards the bottom of the range, and so that's why I say it's a very solid 2.1, but the numbers you mention are roughly the ones that we're using.
That's what's at stake, it's around 3 cents, or 2 to 3 cents at those levels. That just makes a slight move towards the bottom end of the range, and therefore the rounded €2.1 billion.
As I say, we're very comfortable with that. On the non-recurring, Rui, do you want to take that?
Rui Teixeira
Sure. Hi, Jenny.
That accelerated depreciation of the Meadow Lake IV, we booked part of that already up to the nine months, there was an additional one to be booked now in Q4. Also secondly, we reviewed some old equipment that we had stored in some markets, particularly in the US, and we decided to effectively impair that.
Also at the end there was also some smaller impairments on the development side. I cannot anticipate that we'll have that every single year.
Depending on the year, we'll look into the assets and see if there is any impairments to be carried out. It was along these lines.
Jenny Ping
Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you, Jenny. The next question comes from the line of Arthur Sitbon from Morgan Stanley.
Arthur, please go ahead.
Arthur Sitbon
Hello, thank you for taking my question. The first one is on your disposal plan.
I was wondering if you could provide an update on that, if we should expect any disposal in 2026, it's just in order to assess a little bit where the net financial debt could be at the end of the year. Obviously, I've seen that you're making progress on safe harboring, and so I was wondering if there is any incentive on your side to maybe accelerate a bit your deleveraging plan and have more of this disposals in 2026 in order to re-accelerate the investments earlier than in 2028.
That's the first question. The second one is just on your target for power output in 2026.
You're talking about high single-digit growth in output, I imagine that means something around 44 TWh. I was just wondering if you could help us with the bridge between the 40.5 roughly in 2025 and the 44 in 2026.
How is that divided between normalization of the P50 and increased capacity? Thank you very much.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
Thank you, Arthur. In relation to the disposal, it's roughly around a billion.
We'd obviously try and do that as quickly as possible. Obviously, if we can overdeliver on the plan, that's what we're aiming for, and so to the extent that we can deliver faster and also redeploy that capital into projects that we think have the right risk-return, 2027, but mostly 2028 and beyond, then we'll certainly do that.
In terms of targets, the disposal is €1 billion. Hopefully, some of that might come through in 2026, but that's all I can say at the moment in terms of guidance.
In relation to the second question in terms of power, Rui, I don't know if you have the numbers there.
Rui Teixeira
No, I can address this. I would say it's definitely a combination.
We consider a P50 because the fact is that we look to long-term historical series, and we cannot identify any trend. We know that we'll always have volatility, particularly on the wind side.
As our portfolio is still quite overweight in wind. We always have this type of volatility across the regions.
Looking forward, we can carry on considering a P50 as the best scenario. Yes, there will be some gross additions, also some asset rotations.
I would say that that high single digit is really a combination. It's hard for me to say how much comes from one and the other, but as a whole, you can consider that high single digit as output increase.
Arthur Sitbon
Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you, Arthur. The next question comes from the line of Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs.
Alberto, please go ahead.
Alberto Gandolfi
Miguel, thank you for taking my questions, and good afternoon. The first one is a little bit of a capital allocation bigger picture, I guess.
The US market seems to be booming, right, as you said, power prices are increasing, power demand is increasing, competition doesn't seem as fierce as it has been. I guess it's a two-part question: are you tempted to find incremental balance sheet headroom to chase this opportunity in the US?
Would you be open to exit regions like APAC or South America, or would you be perhaps open even to entirely change capital allocation, and perhaps think about, as we have seen throughout last year, other utilities do issue equity to upgrade capex and upgrade growth? Is the US such a big opportunity that deserves maybe to be thinking about it right now?
The second question, just to be clear on the power prices sensitivity, I understand that you say 60% of merchant is Europe, and 60% of that is Iberia, but prices are down throughout Europe. If you are up $5 a megawatt-hour in the US, but vis-à-vis your CMD, you are kind of €10 a megawatt-hour down in Europe, wouldn't the net effect still be negative on '26, '27, '28 profits?
Thank you so much.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
Thank you, Alberto. On the capital allocation question, let's be clear, we have no intention to issue equity in relation to that to create that balance sheet space.
Obviously, we've had very successful asset rotation programs over the year, and we will continue to do that going forward. I think we already start having some visibility, I think, on some of those processes, even though they're at an early stage, and I think we'll be able to show that again this year.
In terms of disposals, we will continue to look at, this was also one of the previous questions from Arthur, but looking to see how we can accelerate disposals and find sort of assets that we can monetize at a good value and redeploy that capital. As I say, we always want to make sure we redeploy that capital into projects that we think have the right risk-return, whether it's in the US or anywhere else.
Certainly in the US, I agree with you, we are seeing a lot of demand there. We are constantly discussing between ourselves and with the team on the ground how we can accelerate and go faster.
We're looking at all the different instruments, but not including equity, but including sort of capital allocation within the portfolio and in the disposals. On the power prices, Rui, do you want to follow up on that?
Rui Teixeira
I can. Hi, Alberto.
On the power prices, as I said, again, it's only, first of all, 15% of the merchant exposure by 2028. Within Europe, there are three markets that have the exposure: Spain, Poland, and Romania.
We do not have any exposure merchant to Italy, which is obviously a positive at this point. Also very importantly, the rest of the exposure comes from US, a little bit in Brazil, and here is where we are seeing the markets with an upward trend.
That's why, all in all, the sort of sensitivity that we had back in the CMD remains flat, same €25 million for And again, is an overall, if all the markets go in the same direction, €5 per megawatt-hour, so that's the sort of €25 million impact. As I said, you have nowadays very different trends between Europe coming down, US going up, and Brazil actually going really up.
Operator
Thank you, Alberto. We have the last question from the phone coming from the line of Skye Landon from Rothschild.
Skye, please go ahead.
Skye Landon
Hi, thanks for the presentation this afternoon. Firstly, on opex decreases, great to see the -12% last year.
I think at the CMD, you said that this was going to tick down and touch further by 2028, but just wondering if you could elaborate on what you see as the potential for this to keep decreasing, and what the levers are that can be pulled to keep it going down. Secondly, on asset rotation, just wondering if you can elaborate on which geographies you're expecting to see deals in 2026 in order to get to the €0.2 billion guidance.
I note that the asset rotation gain over invested capital of circa 15% in 2025, just wondering how you see this figure developing going forwards for 2026. Then lastly, on net debt, you guided to 3.2 times net debt to EBITDA by 2028 at the CMD last year, just wondering if you can provide any color on kind of the cadence of reduction from the 4.1 that you've just posted to the 3.2 in 2028, kind of roughly straight-line, or wondering if it's a bit more lumpy than this.
Thank you.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
Thanks, Skye, for the questions. On the opex side, what I'd say is that we have two effects: one is just keeping the costs under control and reducing to the extent possible, and then, while we're growing and increasing the number of megawatts, really building on these economies of scale.
I think what we've shown is that we've been becoming more productive, we've been leveraging a lot on, for example, our overall asset management platform, and there was a significant restructuring that was done at that level, and I think we'll continue to obviously push for improvements in productivity there. I think this was already very significant increase in, let's say, efficiency.
We're touching sort of €40,000 per megawatt, which is I think we haven't been there for many, many, many, many years, and in the meantime, we've had a lot of inflation, really I think this is a fantastic metric. Going forward, it's just keeping sort of that culture of cost control and developing sort of the economies of scale.
Obviously, we're incorporating a bunch of systems, really developing automation, AI, really trying to extract the maximum value from our operations. On the asset rotation, the second question, in terms of where, Europe and US.
That will be the bulk of our sort of in the US, you could probably expect that we do a majority stake this year, which would then also contribute to the capital gains. In Europe, as we've done in the past, you'd also have majority stakes.
In terms of the percentages, as I say, if we exclude the Spanish transaction this year, we had around 20% capital gain sort of over capex in Europe. I think you'd see that or even higher over net capex in the US.
I think we have some very good, very attractive projects coming down the pipeline, but we'll see. I don't want to speak too soon, but I think you'll clearly see sort of very healthy capital gains over capex going forward.
On the net debt in terms of cadence, Rui, do you want to take that one
Rui Teixeira
for? All right.
Listen, I would expect the net debt to EBITDA to continuously improving. Net debt probably should be slightly down versus where we ended 2025, this for 2026, EBITDA growing, effectively we should see already an improvement on the net debt to EBITDA ratios '26, '27, '28.
Operator
Thank you, Skye. That concludes our Q&A session.
I pass to our CEO for the final remarks.
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade
I think just very quickly, I just wanted to reiterate some of the comments I made earlier. I think 2025 was a good year, very good year, both in terms of execution, delivery on the numbers, both on the financial side and on the operational side.
I think we're very happy with that result. Now the focus is on delivering 2026.
I think we're coming into the year well positioned. I think we continue to see on the operational side good improvements, whether it's in terms of the opex, or whether it's in terms of delivering the projects that we've set out for 2026.
In terms of the asset rotations, which is obviously important, and disposals, we continue to work on those, but again, I'm sure that in 2026 we will deliver comfortably on these targets. Good expectations for 2026, certainly good expectations for 2028, and look forward to sharing that with you over the next couple of quarters, and to talking to you again.
Thanks very much, and let's keep in touch.
Already premium?