Royal KPN NV

Royal KPN NV

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Feb 03Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptJanuary 28, 2026

Joost Farwerck

Thank you, Matthijs, and welcome, everyone. Let's start with some highlights of the fourth quarter and the full year.

We delivered on our 2025 outlook, and group service revenues increased by 2.7% with all segments contributing. Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow exceeded guidance.

We maintained strict cost control across the organization. Indirect costs were €10 million lower than last year, marking a clear turning point in indirect opex.

In the fourth quarter, we saw consumer delivering another quarter of strong commercial momentum, especially in broadband, with record net additions for the full year. Business growth was mainly driven by SME, and wholesale continued to grow mainly driven by sponsored roaming.

Last year, we expanded our footprint by adding 440,000 fiber homes and around 400,000 homes connected. We strengthened our mobile network with the launch of our tower company, Altio.

Through ongoing investments in cybersecurity, we ensure a resilient network that protects all users. For 2026, we expect service revenue growth of 2% to 2.5%, EBITDA of approximately €2.67 billion, capex of about €1.25 billion, and free cash flow of more than €950 million.

Our dividend per share is expected to grow by 10%, and we intend a new share buyback of €250 million in 2026. All in all, we closed the year in a good way, and we are well positioned to sustain healthy service revenue growth in the coming years, supported by our leading positions in consumer and business markets and continued growth in wholesale.

At the same time, we are accelerating our transformation to deliver around €100 million in annual net indirect opex savings by 2030. Reducing capex below €1 billion by 2027, next year, will drive strong cash generation and deliver attractive shareholder returns.

Later, Chris will give you more details on our financials and 2026 outlook. We delivered on our 2025 outlook.

Service revenues grew by around 3%. EBITDA slightly exceeded guidance.

Free cash flow was strong at €952 million, ahead of the upgraded outlook we gave at the half-year results despite slightly higher capex. We reiterate our dividend commitment, and we will pay a regular dividend per share of 18.2 cents over 2025 following AGM approval mid-April.

At our strategy update in November, we reaffirmed that we are well on track to achieving our connect, activate, and grow strategy, which is supported by three key pillars: one, we continue to invest in the leading networks; two, we continue to grow and protect our customer base; and three, we further modernize and simplify our operating model. Together, these priorities support our ambition to grow service revenues and EBITDA by approximately 3% on average and free cash flow by approximately 7% over the entire strategic period.

Let me now walk you through the operational performance in more detail. We hold a clear lead in the Dutch fiber market, both in homes passed and connected and in business parks through our joint venture, Glaspoort.

Together with Glaspoort, we now cover nearly 6 million Dutch homes, or around 70% of the country. To maintain our network leadership, we further optimized our rollout process and shifted focus from passing homes to connecting and activating households.

This approach is paying off with a record number of homes connected in Q4 and continued growth in fiber broadband net adds. Consumer service revenues continued to grow, driven by consistent fiber and mobile service revenue growth.

Commercial momentum remained strong across both fixed and mobile, with subscriber growth exceeding our fair share. Throughout the year, our Net Promoter Score improved, supported by operational excellence, our combivoordeel offer, and initiatives launched to strengthen digital engagements.

Now let's take a closer look at our fourth-quarter KPIs. Thanks to strong execution and proactive base management, we delivered double-digit broadband net adds growth for the third quarter in a row, supported by a healthy inflow of new fiber customers.

Our fixed ARPU held firm despite continued investments in our base and the competitive markets. Together, these achievements drove service revenues growth of 0.4%.

In mobile, we added 24,000 postpaid subscribers, and postpaid ARPU increased year on year, supported by the price increase in October, partly offset by the ongoing promotional activity in the no-frills segment. Combined, these factors led to 2.9% growth in mobile service revenue.

Now let's turn to B2B. Business service revenues increased by 2.3% year on year, mainly driven by SME.

Also here, Net Promoter Score improved throughout the year, reflecting the continued trust from our B2B customers for stability, reliability, and the quality of our networks and services. SME remains B2B's main growth engine, driven by broadband, mobile, and cloud and workspace.

LCE service revenue growth trend remains relatively stable, supported by continued growth in unified communications, CPaaS, IoT, and a growing customer base, partly offset by continued price pressure in mobile. Finally, Tailored Solutions service revenue decreased, reflecting a focus on value steering.

Wholesale continued to grow, mainly driven by the strong performance in mobile. Broadband service revenues increased, driven by fiber, and the growth trend leveled off compared to previous quarters, driven by the decline in the wholesale copper base.

Mobile remained strong, driven by continued growth in international sponsored roaming. Other service revenues increased mainly due to an uptake in visitor roaming.

ESG remains a core element of our strategy. On this slide, we show you the progress on carbon reduction, circularity, and diversity.

To further reduce our carbon footprint across the value chain, we increased our green energy sourcing in 2025, supported by a solar energy partnership with Eneco. Our Scope 2 emissions have further decreased by 70% year on year, while Scope 3 emissions slightly increased, but this was due to an expanded scope.

Next to this, we of course remain committed to improving our diversity targets. Although achieving gender balance in recruitment remains challenging, diversity and inclusion continue to be top priority for us.

To summarize, we ended 2025 in a strong position, and we carry that momentum into 2026. With strong commercial execution, a healthy base inflow, and improving ARPUs, we're well positioned and confident in delivering on our 2026 outlook.

Now let me hand over to Chris to give you more details on the financials.

Chris Figee

Thank you, Joost. Let me now take you through our financial performance.

First, let me summarize some key figures for the fourth quarter and the full year. First, adjusted revenues were up 2.7% year on year in Q4, driven by service revenue growth across all segments and also higher non-service revenues.

Second, adjusted EBITDA after leases grew by 5.1% compared to last year, supported by higher revenues and lower indirect costs. Underlying EBITDA growth, excluding Altio, was 3.7% in Q4.

Our EBITDA margin improved by 100 basis points to 44.6% of total adjusted revenues. Third, our net profit increased 12% year on year, supported by a one-off tax gain of about €20 million from a recognition of a deferred tax asset.

Finally, for the full year, our free cash flow increased by 5.8% year on year to €952 million, mainly driven by EBITDA growth. Also, our free cash flow margin over total adjusted revenues grew by nearly 40 basis points.

With our ongoing share buybacks reducing the number of shares outstanding, our free cash flow per share growth is even stronger at 7% year on year. We'll share more detail on the underlying cash developments later in the presentation.

In the fourth quarter, group service revenues grew by 1.8% year on year, supported by growth in all segments. In this mix, we saw consumer service revenues increase by 1.2%, driven by continued solid commercial momentum in both fixed and mobile.

For 2026, we expect consumer service revenue growth of about 1.5% year on year, supported by base growth and commercial improvements. Business service revenue growth was 2.3% year on year, mainly driven by SME.

Tailored Solutions remained negative, reflecting our focus on margins and contract quality. For 2026, we expect B2B to grow by 3% year on year, with growth weighted towards the second half of the year, given the segment's strong performance in the first half of 2025 and therefore the comps that it will weigh against Tailored Solutions revenue growth.

Our higher-margin SME business will continue to show growth in the 5% region throughout the year. Finally, wholesale service revenues increased by 3.9% year on year, driven by ongoing growth in international sponsored roaming business.

For '26, wholesale is expected to grow by about 3%, supported by mobile. For the full year and on a like-for-like basis, excluding IPR benefits and the contribution from Altio, our adjusted EBITDA grew by 3.1%, exceeding our 3% CMD hurdle.

This growth was driven by higher service revenues and supported by strict cost control. Direct costs, or cost of goods sold, increased mainly due to the service revenue mix effects in B2B and higher third-party access costs through Glaspoort.

In 2025, we reduced indirect costs by about €10 million, marking a clear inflection point after two years of inflationary pressure. The savings came from disciplined cost management, automation, digitalization, lease portfolio optimization, and workforce reductions of over 300 FTEs year on year, or more than 500 if we include contingent external staff.

As shared at our strategy update, we are targeting €100 million in net indirect opex savings over the next five years under our transformation programs. In 2026, we expect about €15 million to €20 million in additional savings, driven by faster digital transformation, AI-enabled process improvements, and continued cost base optimization.

Our cost reduction program clearly builds momentum and will show gradually accelerating benefits over the coming years. Our operational free cash flow continues to show healthy growth of nearly 10%, or about 6% excluding IPR benefits and Altio.

The growth was driven by EBITDA, while capex was marginally higher than last year, primarily due to a non-cash accounting reassessment relating to cable damages. For 2026 and on a like-for-like basis, excluding IPR benefits and excluding IP sales, we expect to deliver mid- to high single-digit growth in operational free cash flow, in line with our CMD guidance.

This underlying growth in operational free cash flow will be driven by EBITDA growth and effectively stable capex. In 2026, after completing the heavy lifting phase of our fiber rollout, we expect and confirm a significant step-down in capex of about €250 million, bringing total capex to below a billion.

With EBITDA growth and this capex step-down in 2027, operating free cash flow is set to grow by about 10% annually on average over the strategic period. This strong cash conversion will lift operating free cash flow margins from 24% today to about 30%, placing us among the top performers in Europe.

This underpins our long-term value creation model and reinforces our confidence in delivering sustainable cash flow growth in the years ahead. Turning now into the moving parts of our free cash flow.

At €952 million, our free cash flow was about 6% higher, driven by EBITDA growth and partially offset by changes in working capital and an increase in cash taxes and interest payments. Excluding the cash component of the IPR benefits, our free cash flow grew at low single-digit rates.

Note that the delta in provisions is related to lower pension provisions and some timing effects. Our cash margin over revenues improved by nearly 40 basis points to 16.3%, reflecting the solid cash generation momentum of KPN.

We ended the year with a cash position of €552 million. KPN remains focused on creating long-term value, which is evidenced also by the strong return on capital employed.

Our ROCE improved by 30 basis points year on year to 14.7%, nearing and marching towards our midterm ambition of 15%, driven by operational efficiency, demonstrating our continued commitment to create value through operations and investments. We maintain a strong and resilient balance sheet.

At year end, the leverage ratio of 2.4 times, stable compared to previous year and below our self-imposed ceiling of two and a half times. Our interest coverage ratio also remains strong.

Our average cost of senior debt decreased by 30 basis points year on year, mainly due to optimization of our derivatives portfolio. Our exposure to floating rates remains limited at 14%.

Our total liquidity position of around €1.6 billion remains strong, covering debt maturities until the end of 2028. At our strategy update, we reaffirmed our midterm 3-3-7 financial ambitions.

We see healthy service revenue growth through coming years, while accelerating our transformation to deliver about €100 million in net indirect opex savings annually by 2030. Which means for 2026: group service revenue growth is expected between 2% and 2.5%, with all segments contributing.

We expect adjusted EBITDA after leases to be around €2.67 billion, or around 3% growth on a like-for-like basis, i.e. excluding IPR benefits and IP sales, and in line with our midterm ambitions.

Growth will be driven by continued service revenue growth and lower indirect costs. We anticipate net indirect opex savings of €15 million to €20 million next year.

Throughout the year, EBITDA year-on-year growth is expected to be strong in Q1 and Q4, while Q2 and Q3 will face tougher comparators. Capex will remain at around €1.25 billion, in line with our midterm guidance.

We expect a free cash flow of over €950 million. On a like-for-like basis, including the aforementioned one-off effects in 2025, our free cash flow expected to grow low to mid-single digits, primarily driven by EBITDA growth, partly offset by higher cash taxes.

Finally, over the entire strategic period, we reiterate our financial ambitions to grow service revenues and adjusted EBITDA by 3% and free cash flow by 7% per annum on average, as reflected in the 3-3-7 CAGR model. Note that our underlying 2026 guidance and our daily trading are both in line and on track with this multi-year ambition.

We feel confident to reach our planned level of cash generation and shareholder distributions. On that perimeter, our financial framework is centered on long-term value creation for all stakeholders.

In this respect, we are committed to returning all free cash flow to our shareholders. Our free cash flow per share was up 7% during the year, providing ample room for growth in our dividends per share as well.

Which means we intend to pay a regular dividend of 20 euro cents per share over 2026, up 10% compared to the DPS over '25, and fully in line with what we communicated at our strategy update. For 2027, we aim for a further increase to about 25 euro cents, or 25% increase year on year.

In addition, as announced this morning, we will launch a share buyback program of €250 million in '26, notably starting tomorrow. Let me conclude with some key takeaways.

We delivered on our 2025 outlook: consistent service revenue growth across all segments, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow came in slightly above guidance, and disciplined cost management delivered a €10 million reduction in indirect opex, marking a clear inflection point after two years of inflationary pressure. We saw solid commercial momentum in consumer and business, including record broadband net adds in consumer.

We continue to lead the Dutch fiber market with accelerated delivery of fiber-connected and activated homes. Our strong progress in 2025 confirms the successful execution of our strategy and positions us for future growth.

We reaffirm our 3-3-7 financial framework, and the announced 2026 targets are fully aligned with this multi-year plan, including the capex step-down in '27 to unlock and enhance cash conversion. We are accelerating transformation, targeting €100 million in indirect opex savings over the next five years.

Beyond '27, we expect mid-single-digit free cash flow growth, supported by strong fundamentals and disciplined execution. Cash momentum was very strong and solid going into '25, providing us with confidence.

Finally, we're committed to shareholders, returning all free cash flow to shareholders through growing dividends and buybacks, and the latter starting tomorrow. Thanks for listening.

Now back to your questions.

Matthijs van Leijenhorst

Thank you, Joost and Chris. We will now start the Q&A session.

Please limit your questions to two, please. Operator, could you please open the line for the Q&A?

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, as you've heard, we will start the question and answer session now. If you'd like to ask a question, you may do so by pressing pound key five on your telephone keypad.

The first question comes from Mr. Polo Tang from UBS.

Your line is open, please go ahead.

Polo Tang

Afternoon, thanks for taking the questions. I have two.

The first one is just about consumer broadband net adds. They've been very solid for the past three quarters at more than 10,000 a quarter, but do you think this level of net adds growth is sustainable going forward?

I'm just asking the question because you referenced taking more than your fair share earlier in the presentation. Also, you've got Odido gaining subscribers with FWA.

VodafoneZiggo seems to be making progress in stabilizing its broadband base and will also start wholesaling in the Delta Fiber footprint. I'm just interested in how you're thinking about competitive dynamics for the broadband market going forward.

Second question is just on B2B. Do you think that B2B service revenues can grow in Q1 and Q2 given that you've got that tough comparable in Tailored Solutions?

What's your view on the Dutch macro environment, and are you seeing any signs of caution from your B2B clients? Thanks.

Joost Farwerck

Thanks for your questions, Polo, and I'll start, and then Chris will join me, I guess. On consumer broadband net adds, you're right: three strong quarters in a row, and meanwhile, we operate in a very competitive market that remains competitive.

This is more or less normal course of business for us nowadays. I think what we can more or less conclude is that that new strategy of ours is working, where we focus on base management instead of acquiring new customers who leave in a year for a free TV set from another service provider.

We invest a lot in our customer base, and that seems to work. Is it sustainable, you said, while you mention FWA from Odido, changes in the VodafoneZiggo strategy?

I think FWA is a niche market. That's in a country where households have two or three fixed lines into a household, where 1 gig is the standard and 4 gig is becoming quite normal fixed, unlimited is the standard on mobile.

Fixed wireless access as a broadband connection is more for a niche segment than anything else. We more or less have, by the way, the same for rural areas.

VodafoneZiggo, they are clearly now making noise around being a full, always-on provider when it comes to quality and content. Let's see.

I think for us, the best answer to everything for the last years was believe in your own plan, believe in your own strategy, and execute on that. Last quarters were good.

Of course, we plan to continue, perhaps not always above 10, but we plan for strong growth, healthy growth on broadband this year as well. On B2B service revenues, the Dutch economy is growing and also expected to grow in 2026.

SME is very important segment for us. That will grow probably around 5% like we did last year.

You see some changes in our top line in B2B because we, what we mentioned, focus on value steering. That is mainly in that Tailored Solutions part where we say goodbye to revenues that are not really contributing when it comes to margin.

Of course, for us very important to explain that to you in the quarters to come, but when it comes to healthy margin-rich revenues, I think we will do fine in B2B. Chris?

Chris Figee

Polo, on your first point on broadband, just two points to add is that, obviously, the important drivers behind the solid net adds were lower churn and lower migration. Churn has been consistently lower and lowering or declining during the last half year.

I think it also has to do with the fact that our copper base is gradually shrinking, the vulnerable part of our business is declining. Migrations from front to back book we've managed that successfully, combivoordeel works, I'd say the churn side has been very positive.

If you look at fiber, our real net adds, fiber net adds excluding copper upgrades of clients moving from copper to fiber, has been pretty consistent now for multiple quarters in a row, I know see reason to see that stop. On B2B, as Joost rightly pointed out, on the Tailored Solutions side, we've been focusing on value and margins, which means that our SME will continue to grow north of 5% basically during the year.

That's the highest-margin business that we have, and that continues to grow nicely across all quarters. I expect the LCE business also to show positive growth across the quarters.

Tailored Solutions will be negative, I guess, in the first half year due to the comps. That means that, reporting-wise, B2B across the entire year will be growing around 3%, but heavily tilted towards the second half of the year, and run flattish, I guess, in the first half of the year.

That's a pure Tailored Solutions effect. The high-margin businesses, SME and LCE, will continue to show steady growth throughout the year.

Then when the comps start to work for us, you can see an acceleration, at least, of reported growth. The 3% for the year is pretty well supported.

It just will be, as you rightly pointed out, tilted towards the second half of the year.

Polo Tang

Clear. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Joshua Mills from BNP Paribas. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Joshua Mills

Hi, guys. Thanks for the questions.

A couple from me. The first one is on the consumer side.

I think, Chris, you might have mentioned that the annual service revenue guidance for consumer, if you could just remind us of that. I assume it will be accelerating throughout the year.

My question is, what's going to drive that? Is it continued volume growth, or are you also expecting ARPU to improve as well?

Then secondly, related to that, if I look at the price increases last year, you were broadly in line with both Odido and Vod Ziggo on the broadband side. I think you were a bit ahead on the mobile side.

Now that you are outperforming your net add share relative to your market share in the Dutch market, and given some of the more aggressive price increases we've seen from the likes of Swisscom yesterday, and incumbents taking advantage of their network leadership to float prices up, how are you thinking about the value versus volume mix going forward? Is there the opportunity with this fiber network to be a bit more ambitious on price take?

Thanks.

Chris Figee

Consumer we've guided for 1.5% growth throughout the year. It'd be continuation of what we do today.

I would say mobile itself should continue to grow nicely, should be north of 3 during the year. We're now hovering around 3.

That should be fine continuing with that with pretty healthy net add growth and supported ARPU. Fixed I think fixed something similar.

Joost talked about the base dynamics, churn improvements, and a flat to up ARPU saving during the year. I'd expect continuation of reasonable net add growth and flat to increasing ARPUs, supported price and some price indexations.

Obviously, we're looking at back book and front book alike to make sure we are fully consistent with orienting towards a value orientation. Strategy-wise, to also take on your second question, we are a value over volume business.

We'd love to take a bit more than our running market share, which we do. I think that's a reflection of the networks and the quality that we've built.

We see some effects on network quality both in mobile and fixed positively reflecting on us, and that should allow us to get continued inflow of net adds. It all remains value-oriented and anything else.

That means for consumer, 1.5% growth during the year. I would say during the year, I would expect mobile to be stronger in the first half of the year and the second half of the year, possibly some of the combivoordeel effects will fade, with fixed carrying the baton from the second half of the year a bit more.

On price increases, that's a call we make every second quarter of the year on broadband. The last years, it was more or less centered around the CPI, inflation.

Joshua Mills

Got it. Thanks very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Ottavio Adorisio from Bernstein. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Siyi He

Hello, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two, please.

The first one is just on going back on the consumer ARPU comments. It seems that the mobile ARPU has stabilized, and despite that you have the combo discounts on the fixed products and that you still delivered a stable fixed ARPU.

I'm just wondering if you could comment on what you see in the ARPU developments. Should we expect there is a solid reason that forces us to believe that ARPU is going to be stable and growing going forward?

A second question is really a quick one, just wondering your views on the increasingly rigid stance from the EU on the Chinese vendors and if you could comment on what's your exposure there and what do you think it could potentially impact your capex plan. Thank you.

Chris Figee

Let me take the first question on ARPU. I think for both mobile and fixed, we expect stable to a modest increase in ARPU.

On fixed, driven by price indexations, a shift towards higher speed levels that we had this year as well, and a relatively manageable amount of migrations from front to back book. In the latter, obviously, are margin-dilutive, but the effects tend to be increasingly limited.

We have to manage that pretty well. The big chunk of our base is in contracts, so that I expect fixed ARPU to be stable to have a modest growth over the year.

Something similar for mobile. Obviously, we had a step-down in mobile in last year, or at least lower growth, mostly in the no-frills part and driven by the non-committed part of the ARPUs.

I think it feels like stabilization in that phase at play. What's to drive mobile ARPU?

It is indexations, surely in back book, possibly more. It is a gradual, continued move to unlimited customers.

A significant amount of our new sales are now in unlimited. We're basically at our targets and we want to have in unlimited.

I think also gradual stabilization of the market in a no-frills segment with, I would say, less pressure on the non-committed part. In summary, I'd expect both fixed and mobile ARPU to be at least stable or deliver some modest growth during the year.

Yeah.

Joost Farwerck

On Chinese vendors, yeah, we are well on track on implementing 5G toolbox, swapping non-Western suppliers from critical systems while we introduce European vendors there. We already started down this path many years ago.

We are fully aligned with Dutch and the EU security guidelines. Of course, there's some discussion in the market about the Cybersecurity Act.

Seems it's proposing a further ban on high-risk vendors. Far too early to tell what the full consequences are, and I expect extensive debate there and, yeah, more finalization towards the end of 2027.

I think the main message is we already started with this many years ago, and we follow this life cycle of assets in our approach, we do not see any impact on our capex envelope in the future.

Siyi He

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Ajay Soni from JPMorgan. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Ajay Soni

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the questions.

I've got a couple. The first is on your '26 wholesale growth.

You guided to 3%. Medium-term target here is four.

What are the headwinds you see this year which you expect to fade into the medium term? The second one is just around the convergent impact on your fixed service revenues.

Just wondering what the impact was in this quarter versus Q3, and then how you expect that impact to evolve over 2026. I think you've already said it will kind of fade by H2, just some clarity on that.

Thank you.

Chris Figee

Let me take both of them. On wholesale, indeed, on wholesale broadband and mobile, mobile's continued to do well both on the national solutions as well as our international sponsored roaming solution.

There's a very good funnel of customers waiting to be connected, or to be contracted. In broadband, we've seen, as you've noticed, a decline in our total base, mostly copper.

With decline in copper, increase in fiber. Has to do with our main wholesale broadband customer shutting down a brand.

That effect will probably continue into Q1, but then gradually expected to fade towards the half year. Although, you should ask that client for more intel.

I think that happened last year, and that effectively shows up in the numbers this year. Basically, a stabilization in this year will means supporting service revenue growth in 2027.

There's always a bit of a year lag between base developments and what you actually report in terms of service revenues. To me, in wholesale, it's moderation of broadband service revenue growth in this year and support next year as this brand effect starts to fade away, supporting growth in '27 and onwards, and continuation of the sponsored roaming effect.

On the convergent, the combivoordeel effect, we reported fixed service revenue growth of 0.4% in Q4. If we hadn't made these investments, fixed service revenue would have been around 1% for the year, at fixed only.

That's kind of the magnitude of things. If you look at the total service revenues of next year, the total effect for the year is probably around 15 basis points of growth for KPN as a whole.

Look, it's a small amount, but as we're talking about a few digits after the comma, it actually has an effect. Basically, fixed would have been around 1% in Q4 instead of 0.4%, and for the full year '26, I think the effect on service revenue growth of this investment is about 15 basis points of growth.

I expect this gradually to fade a second half of the year, towards the end of the year. More like Q4, you'll see less and less.

Basically, the investment will continue, but then the base that is subject to the plan will be big enough so you can see the effect of lower churn already. For those customers who've been part of the combivoordeel plan have shown markedly lower churn, so that will start to weigh in the numbers in the second half of the year.

Let's be conservative, more towards Q4 than Q3.

Ajay Soni

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Keval Khiroya from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Keval Khiroya

Thank you. I've got two questions, please.

Firstly, you talked about mobile growth within consumer of 3% in 2026. Q4 was at that level, but benefits from quite an easy comp.

Can you just elaborate a little bit more on what's going to drive the acceleration to that 3% in mobile for 2026? Secondly, Delta and ODF have now pretty much completed their fiber rollouts.

What's happening to your customer churn in these areas? Is it slowing as they've ended their rollouts, or is churn still at similar levels given they're still ultimately trying to penetrate these networks?

Thank you.

Chris Figee

Look, on mobile side, it's indeed, if you look at the more challenging comps, but as lastly, we've done both front book and back book repricings. Last year, we looked at a more-for-more price increase last year, and we might as well just repeat that action this year.

There are a number of pricing actions we do on our mobile business: regular indexation and the more-for-more for existing customers. I think that's one.

Secondly, our base has grown. Our total mobile base has grown by 129,000 over the year.

It's quite good. '24 was a fantastic year.

That makes '25 look like a lesser year, but remember, '25 was actually still a lot better than '23 and '22. It's still one of the best mobile years in history in terms of net adds.

Basically, next year, you have the benefit of a higher starting base to continue, and base continues to grow in Q4 and also the first weeks in this year. Then you have another round of price indexations and possibly a more-for-more indexation as well for customers.

That should support mobile revenue growth. Secondly, obviously, the big unknown is the amount of traffic and uncommitted that has declined a lot, but it feels that, well, hopefully, we reach the bottom of that as well.

That gives us comfort that, in general, mobile growth should be healthy, also in the tougher first half-year comps.

Joost Farwerck

Yes, Keval. You're right.

Delta and ODF are no longer expanding their fiber footprint. They're clearly focusing more on trying to connect households.

These are footprints of different qualities. In the Delta footprint, we originally, in some places, have a lower market share.

ODF built their footprint in mainly the strong Ziggo area, the larger cities. It's a bit of different dynamics in both footprints.

In the ODF area, we're building as well. Our strategy there, of course, is to not only pass households, but also connect and activate.

I think that's a big difference between us and the others. On fiber by overbuilding in the cities, we're doing good.

Market share is on copper in other fiber areas are, of course, lower than we represent in fiber areas, but still doing okay. I think expanding our footprint to 70% and connecting so many households, and at the end, moving up to 85 makes the churn in copper areas also slowing down.

Keval Khiroya

That's clear. Thank you both.

Operator

The next question comes from Paul Tang from Berenberg. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Paul Sidney

Thank you very much. Good afternoon.

A couple of questions for me, please. Just the first one, just perhaps building on a few of the earlier questions around customer behavior, you've made some very positive comments around churn, retention, network quality appreciation, especially interesting given the price increases that you've been putting through over the past few years.

Just very high-level question: Does this really suggest a wider appreciation of the services you provide for consumers and businesses? The follow-on from that is, it feels like there's substantial room for price increases to continue over the next few years.

Again, just coming back to an earlier analyst comment around the Swisscom move yesterday, it does feel like a bit of a shift. I'm just interested to hear your comments around that.

Then just secondly, Chris, on capital allocation, your decision to return all the free cash flow to shareholders over 2026, is it a fair assumption that there is therefore no sort of small bolt-on acquisition opportunities on the horizon? Could there be such opportunities, perhaps, beyond 2026?

Thank you.

Joost Farwerck

Paul, I'll start. Yes.

I think one of the most important changes we started in our strategy beginning of '25 was that we said, "Let's focus more on the customer base." Giving away discounts or Netflix for free or free TV sets to new customers while all loyal customers get a price increase every year is a bit annoying for the customer base.

Since we represent the largest customer base, we shifted to building more quality in the base. Combivoordeel is a service where you can combine your services, and you get more loyalty points.

At the end, you can get something for free. We launched a free security package for all households they can activate themselves.

We launched a new MijnKPN app where you can really organize everything yourself: order or de-order connectivity or whatever. Very simple.

I think the whole message to our customers is, "We invest in you, and we invest in your loyalty." That, of course, is something you can't measure on a daily base.

Acquisition, you can. After a couple of quarters, we can say the churn is really slowing down, and Net Promoter Score went up.

Doing things like that hand in hand with a price increase works much better. I think this is an important switch we made, and we will continue to focus on this strategy because it's also far more positive.

Chris Figee

On the point on also network quality, network stability, we have seen, especially in the business segment, some corporate customers turn to us recently. More interest volume-wise for corporate customers to select KPN simply because of network quality, network stability, which I think is a positive, right?

That's a payoff. It not necessarily massive pricing power, but at least give you a volume and competitive advantage in that market.

On your second question, returning all cash flow to shareholders, that's what we do. We ended the year with a 2.4 times leverage, below our self-imposed ceiling of two and a half times.

We typically, by growing our EBITDA, delever by about 0.1 turn per year. All right, if we wouldn't return our share cash to shareholders, we'd delever faster, but typically, if you, grow your EBITDA, you'd delever by by 0.1 turn per year.

That gives a reasonable headroom towards self-imposed ceilings. I think, Paul, our war chest is big enough for bolt-ons.

That does not mean we're going on a massive acquisition spree, but if we bump into something interesting, we have the rooms and means to do it. Obviously, especially for bolt-ons, the first, hurdle is: Does it create value for us?

Is it value-creating for shareholders, value-creating for the business? How does it compare to buying back shares?

We always check whether an acquisition, does some strategically and financially, does it stack up to buying back our own shares. If we find so opportunities, we have the room to do so simply because our balance sheet gives us sufficient headroom whilst returning all all cash to shareholders.

Paul Sidney

Yeah. That's really helpful.

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Lee from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Andrew Lee

Yeah. Hi, guys.

I had two questions. One was just to follow up on the Chinese vendor question that CEO asked.

Could you just help us understand, does the extent of the risk extend to just you having to fast-track the swap-out you're doing anyway out to 2027, or could it mean even greater swap-out of equipment? Can you just give us a sense as to the scale of that if you were to fast-track it and do it in one year?

How much is that? How much does that cost you, and any help on the scale would be useful.

Then just secondly, on the copper migration competition on wholesale that a few questions have been asking around, specifically the ODF and Delta Fiber competition, are you getting a sense that now that the build's slowing down or has slowed down, that the ability for those operators to actually win customers is starting to decrease, or are you seeing no real let-up in the near term from their ability to gain customers? Thank you.

Joost Farwerck

Like I said, Andrew, with respect to Chinese vendors in particular, we made good alignment with our government years ago, and we're fully on track to move out, like we call this, non-Western vendors out of the critical systems: mobile core, fixed core. Mobile core is Ericsson.

Fixed core is Nokia. That's all known in the market.

We're almost done there. We're pretty good on track.

We do this, like I say, in the life cycle of things. When it comes to other assets, we're also good on track.

We do not see any acceleration or uplift in capex on any risks. There's a discussion around this Cybersecurity Act, but that's all taking time and taking into account where we are and our plans are.

We invest, by the way, every year in our mobile network as well. We have a multi-vendor approach, we like to not to be dependent on one vendor.

Can't give you all the details, but I think what I can tell you is that we're good on track, and we do not see any risks there in capex uplifts in the coming years.

Chris Figee

Andrew, we have a capex envelope and a capex level, if we had to fit it in, we'd make it fit in. Then you have to give priority to one project over others.

I would say with the visibility that we have today, whatever we have to do, as you said, it most likely fits within our life cycle plans anyway. If we had to fast-track it, we'd make it fit into the capex envelope and prioritize this thing over something else.

Andrew Lee

Thank you. That's clear.

Chris Figee

On your question on wholesale and the old nets, possibly probably yes. That means we're seeing less churn in our business altogether.

I don't have a full econometric model to explaining it to you, but I do relate to the fact that most are effective in getting new customers upon rolling out fiber industry. You open the street, people are working on the street, and that's the moment it becomes visible and the moment you sell.

That's the easiest way to sell fiber. Once the rollout stops, actually, the getting new customers in is more difficult, certainly if you don't have a household brand.

Thirdly, also, if you see the feedback from some of these parties on their door-to-door sales and not being very effective. I would say, I don't have a full-proof, scientific proof for you, but it feels that actually that helps us, and in the wholesale side, we also see most of our customers not actively migrating customers.

They don't just happen to migrate a customer from one network to another. The churn risk is way too high.

We do see that the end of the roll of the third parties benefits us on the churn side. Long story short, the answer is yes.

Andrew Lee

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from David Vagman from ING. Your line is open, please go ahead.

David Vagman

Yes. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for taking my question.

First one on mobile: We recently saw VodafoneZiggo being more aggressive on speed. Do you expect speed tiering to become more difficult to monetize, and does this affect your view on mobile ARPU evolution?

Then my second question on the Glaspoort-Delta deal: What do you think is the end game here? Have you noticed any progress in the conversation with the regulator?

Do they want remedies or something else? Thank you.

Chris Figee

Joost, do you want to go first, or I take the first one? You can go first.

On the first one, on the speed tiering thing, well, look, the fact that some of our competitors do not have speed tiering, we don't see it as a sign of strength. We see it as a sign of their networks from our point of view.

At this point, no feedback on that, no market fallout from that. I think people do value and understand the quality of the KPN network.

Quality is more than speed, but it's also coverage, it's stability, the risk of disruptions and distortions. I think, in a broader sense, not having speed tiering is not always a good sign.

It could also be a sign that you don't have the network to actually deliver it. Our view is that customers value the KPN network extensively, and should be able to defend it off.

Yeah. So

David Vagman

Yes.

Joost Farwerck

Not much of a change there. On Glaspoort, yes.

It was since December '24 that we're waiting for our regulator to come up with a verdict. It takes very long, it's clear that they find it very difficult to give it a go.

We're still waiting. No news there, and I think whatever the outcome will be, we'll decide on the next step.

Like we said before, it's not a super significant deal. It's about 200,000 households, which is representing, more or less, four months building.

In hindsight, it took us very long to get where we are today on discussions with the government or the regulator, probably they will come up with something coming months. Let's see.

It's the Netherlands. Everything takes long when it comes to legislation and decision-taking on the government side, let's wait.

Okay. Thanks very much.

Operator

The final question comes from David Wright from Bank of America. Your line is open, please go ahead.

David Wright

Hello, guys. Thank you for taking my call.

I just wondered if you could give us a little guidance into the cash flow, perhaps, Chris, just where you're expecting that cash tax to come in. I know previously you'd talked about 80-odd million.

Looks like that could be a little lighter. Where you might expect working capital to show, and any other items that you might just be flagging in advance.

It'd just be super helpful for the modeling. Thank you.

Chris Figee

David, thank you so much. I've been so much waiting for this question.

There he goes. There he goes.

No, let me give you a quick perspective on '25 and '26, right? In '25, we had our EBITDA up by 129.

Operating cash flow up 120. Positive on delta provisions basically means the cash quality of our earnings went up as well.

Basically, more cash earnings. This year, and into 2025, interest were up 30, taxes up 32.

Together, interest and taxes, yeah, took more €60 million, and then working capital was flat. That gave you basically a €50 million free cash flow increase in the year.

Obviously, there are some IPR benefits in there as well. That means the way I look at it, from '24 to '26, you get effectively a 2.7% annual CAGR.

Next year, or 2026, we said EBITDA will be 2.6 €2.67 billion, obviously €33 million up, but including of the fading of the IPR benefits. Capex is stable.

It might be slightly down, but expect stable. That means operating cash flow up about €40 million if you take the guidance.

Cash restructuring will be around stable. I would say interest about stable towards this year, possibly a little lower.

We're always trying to optimize our interest spend. Taxes up €40 million.

Estimate is about €225 million to €230-ish to €25 million next year. Working capital flat, possibly a bit negative.

We're cautious on working capital. Then others flat, that gives about 950.

If there's modeling-wise, EBITDA 2.67, capex stable, slightly down a few million. It gives you operating cash flow increasing by €40 million, interest stable, taxes up 40 to 225, cash restructuring stable, and working capital flat to a small net negative.

If you basically are flat free cash flow, but that includes, of course, the compensation for the fact that we don't have IPR and IP benefits again this year, which means that, effectively, we're growing our free cash flow by 2.5% to 2.7% year on year from '24 to '25 to '26. I can't make it more easy for you, David.

This is, I think, a pretty clear guidance.

David Wright

Jobs done for me. Thank you so much.

Matthijs van Leijenhorst

Okay. Thank you all for your questions.

This concludes today's session. In case of any questions, you know where to reach out.

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's presentation. Thank you for participating.

You may now disconnect your line. Have a nice day.