Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Michelin conference call. I now hand over to Mr.
Florent Menegaux, Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Yves Chapot, General Manager and Group CFO.
Gentlemen, please go ahead.
Florent Menegaux
Good evening, good afternoon, and good morning to all of you. Thank you for joining us, Yves Chapot and myself, for our 2025 results call.
I would like to start by summarizing our 2030 Michelin in Motion strategy. What you see on your screen is our group relies on four strong and clear distinctive assets.
Our Michelin's way of managing based on empowerment, autonomy, and responsibility. Our company's resilience comes from team cohesion and shared values.
Number two, we have a strong and well-recognized brand. Our Michelin brand is now worth more than $10 billion, and it is the ninth strongest brand in the world across all categories, not only in tires.
We capitalize on a powerful innovation with deep expertise in complex materials assembly. Finally, we sell best-in-class products and services with long-term value delivered to our customers.
Our group operates, and that's in the middle of your screen, in two complementary fields: tires and mobility on historic core business, and Polymer Composite Solutions, in which our group is leveraging its material expertise acquired in tires and where we are accelerating our growth. In 2025, and that's the right of your screen, our group achieved the following performance: an engagement rate at 84.4, high and stable, close to our 2030 target of 85%; a segment operating income of €2.9 billion at ISO Forex.
This is, of course, disappointing performance, as we did not reach our initial 2025 guidance. I am sure, however, you have noticed that we have reached the upper part of our revised guidance.
It shows that we were able to turn things around in the last quarter. Our free cash flow before M&A reached €2.1 billion, reinforcing our financial strength and our ability to generate cash.
Our renewable and recycled material rates stands at 32%, 1 point better than last year. The road ahead to our 2030 ambition is long, but we make strides.
Regarding the shareholder return, we are proposing a stable €1.38 per share dividend, which corresponds to a 50%, 57% payout ratio. Confident in our future, we intend to launch a new share buyback program of up to €2 billion over the next 3 years, 2026–2028 period.
Here, I would like to re-emphasize to all of you that M&A is still a priority as we are deploying our Michelin in Motion 2030 strategy. Our structurally strong cash generation allows us to finance both capex, dividends, and share buyback programs in a flexible way.
Regarding our financial guidance for 2026, our ambition is to progress in terms of segment operating income at ISO scope and ISO parity, which we want to make clear that our ambition is to progress at 2025 perimeter. On the cash side, we intend to generate at least €1.6 billion in free cash flow before M&A.
Now, I would like to take a few minutes to come back on our Polymer Composite Solutions development. Aside from our core business in tires and mobility, where our ambitions remain intact as being the world leader, we are determined to grow our PCS, Polymer Composite Solutions, businesses.
By doing so, we will improve the resilience of our group and its profitability. Michelin's approach in PCS is based on three pillars: leveraging group R&D—Michelin leverages over 100 years of experience in developing the best tires—our deep science in material, and unrivaled ability to industrialize and produce at scale provide us with a unique opportunity to access several very attractive adjacent categories.
We are building a diversified portfolio of independent businesses targeting mission-critical applications. Within our group, we manage our Polymer Composite business with a specific operating model.
We develop strong synergies in terms of R&D, and we operate in a much more decentralized way than in tires. The destination markets represent an addressable market of more than €70 billion organized around six main product categories, as you can see on the bottom left of your screen.
Since we acquired Fenner in 2019, we have grown at a CAGR of around 7% with a balanced mix of organic and external growth. With the latest three acquisitions we have announced, we could reach pro forma 2025 sales of around €1.7 billion with an operating margin of more than 15%.
Our Polymer Composite Solutions business, including our recently announced acquisitions, show a good balance both in terms of market verticals and geographies—that's on the right, and market verticals are on the left. What you can see is North America becomes our largest region after the three latest acquisitions, and it will enable cross-selling synergies and contribute to the upcoming growth in PCS.
Now, I'll hand over to Yves for the rest of our presentation.
Yves Chapot
Thank you, Florent. I'm going to lead you through our performance in our key performance indicators over regarding people, profit, and planet.
Regarding people, the group has shown very strong improvement in terms of safety. Our TRIR is now at below 4.5, which is an improvement of 53 basic points versus 2024.
Our net promoter score with our partner customers has improved by 5.3 points versus '24. We are on track for both indicators on our 2030 ambitions.
I will come back on the profit more in detail afterwards. Regarding the planet, versus 2019, we have already achieved 48% CO2 emission reductions versus 2019, which was nearly the objective we intend to reach by 2030.
We are far ahead thanks to a lot of levers, including purchasing of green electricity, but as well transiting from more carbon-intensive energy to less carbon-intensive energies. Last, I would like to comment the abrasion performance.
If you compare the set of offers of Michelin in 2025 versus 2020, in average, the performance of our tires in abrasion has improved by 8.4%, which translate in less material for the same usage, but as well as an improvement and a competitive advantage in terms of total cost of ownership for our customers. It makes us the undisputed leader in this area.
Now coming back more to the economic situation, I would like first to comment the market. The market has shown very contrasted pictures over the world and over the different segments, but overall, they were generally more generally soft versus 2024, very tough in original equipment, particularly in B2B applications.
If you look at original equipment and if you set apart passenger car tire in China and truck and bus in Europe, all the markets were down versus 2024, whether even -20% for the heavy-duty vehicles in North America. The replacement market, if you look at the figure, seems to post a more positive picture, but in reality, we should not ignore that this trend was triggered by the inflow of Asian tires in anticipation of the tariff in North America and the antidumping measures that the European Union is intending to implement versus passenger car tires coming from China.
Overall, at the end of the year, when we look at our the inventory of our wholesalers, they are pretty heavy-loaded with these tires, and we estimate that it will takes probably another semester to flush out these tires from the from the distribution channel. On the other hand, when we look our own inventory, they are at quite healthy level in all channel of distribution.
Regarding specialties, mining aircraft are posting positive growth. Beyond-road is still plagued by the original equipment cycle, and we will have the opportunity to come back on the situation of beyond-road, particularly in OE.
Replacement has shown some signs of recovery, particularly in Europe, and the Polymer Composite Solution are posting low single-digit growth over the year. Regarding our sales, 2025 have seen very strong headwinds, first one being the volumes.
Our volumes were down by 4.7%, mostly driven by original equipment, and I will have the opportunity to to come back on that. The situation of volume has improved over the year.
Volume in H1 were at -6.1, in H2 at -3.4. Price-mix is still positive over the year, 3%.
The non-tire activity are contributing to 0.3%, you have seen the weight of Polymer Composite Solution, but this activity grow in itself by 3.4% during the year. Of course, we have been severely impacted by the currency effect, €800 million, 3%, of which half is coming from the US dollar, and 2/3 in the second half, 1/3 in the first half.
Overall, our sales, including Forex, have decreased by 4.4% over the year. Now zooming on the volume, volume decreased by 4.7%, nearly 5%, of which 80% is coming from original equipment businesses, half from the truck tire businesses with a strong drop in particularly in the North American, which is a very important market for us, and the rest is shared between passenger car and agriculture all across the regions.
Passenger car tires have grown in China, but the market and our volumes have decreased in the other regions. Our overall replacement sales were posting a slight negative, 1 point volume contribution overall, but with a very diverse situation between Michelin brand, which is growing across practically all the business segment, and our Tier 2 and Tier 3 brands that has been probably more impacted by the inflows of budget tires both in our North American and European core markets.
Our operating margin, the margin landed at €2.7 billion or 10.5%, including Forex. I will start with the with the Forex because half of this €300 million is coming from the USD and 3/4 of the Forex effect is coming in the second half of the year.
Before the month of April, the USD tend to be more resilient versus the euro, but if you look across the full year, the euro has revaluated against nearly all currencies and particularly the USD. Volume is down by €700 million, of which is shared between the margin effect and the lack of fixed cost absorption from our factory due to the very low level of factory loading.
We have a very positive price-mix who nearly hedge the volume effect. Raw material is negative for the full year, but has a positive effect on the second half, which was mostly concentrated on the last quarter.
Manufacturing and low cost are as well negative, but impacted by €235 million due to the tariffs, mostly in the second half. If you take out this effect, our manufacturing costs, in fact, our manufacturing performance have been improving despite a very low factory loading during the second half of the year.
SG&A, which were slightly increasing at the end of the first half of the year, land €5 million below 2024 and thanks to a strong reaction and around €28 million improvement saving during the second half. We have a positive contribution from non-tire business, and the other effects are mainly due to our group bonuses, as in 2024, we have updated our bonuses in November, when in 2025, we did it in in June with a last adjustment in December due to a better free cash flow performance than expected.
Now looking at the picture by business segment, you see that our segments, the most impacted segment are SR2 and SR3 in terms of volumes. SR1 volume lost is mostly coming from original equipment European and North America and our Tier 2 and Tier 3 brand, but the Michelin brand in SR1 has been very resilient and has grown over the year.
The SR2 is suffering obviously from the 9% volume decrease that I have already detailed, and the SR3 has been impacted as well by a strong volume decrease, which has eased during the the second half of the year. At the end of June, we were posting 6.8% volume decrease in SR3 versus 3.1% for the full year.
I would like now to come back on SR2 performance and the our plan to to recover and to come back to a healthier financial performance on this segment. Here, you will see on the right part of the slide two charts: one, which is showing you the market fluctuation within a dark blue, original equipment, and in green, replacement for truck and bus tires over the past 10 years.
We know, and it's particularly exacerbated for original equipment, that this market is cyclical with roughly a market that can fluctuate around 30% below or above its average, depending on the cycle. You see below with the operating margin, the strong correlation between the operating margin and these cycles.
Our strategy is consisting now in trying to desensitize our SR2 margin to this cyclicality: first, by rebalancing the respective weight of our original equipment and replacement volume; rightsizing our manufacturing capacity, and it's all the effort that has been done by the teams in the past 2 years; improving our local-to-local sourcing; accelerating our product plan renewal; increasing the share of services through our Michelin Connected Fleet activity; and re-emphasizing the importance of retreading to extract the full value of the Michelin technology. With all these levers, we believe that we can try to have a less exposure to these fluctuations in the years to come.
A positive results in 2025 is coming from our cash flow generation. Despite a drop in EBITDA, we have been able to generate €2.1 billion of free cash flow before acquisition.
After acquisition, it's even better because we have made some disinvestments in 2025 thanks to a huge effort in working capital, despite some inflationary pressures coming from the North American tariffs. We spent less in taxes and interest than in 2024.
Our restructuring costs have increased versus 2024 by €180 million. You see that our capex has slightly decreased as well, around €100 million.
We have a very positive contribution from our joint venture and associates and from our assets, some asset disposals that we did, real estate in Euromaster or in in China. Last, our ROCE has been impacted by a weaker segment operating income in 2025, despite €550 million less capital employed in average in 2025 versus 2024.
This cash generation has thanks to this cash generation, it's provided us some headroom to deploy our strategy, as Florent highlighted, but we have been able in 2025 to further deleverage our balance sheet with a gearing which land at 13% at the end of the year. It gives gives to the group the flexibility to finance both the growth of its Polymer Composite Solution and to increase its share buyback programs.
In term of shareholder return, our net results has decreased by €230 million versus 2024 thanks to a better contribution of JV and associates and versus the impact of the segment operating income, less restructuring costs, and despite as well an an effective tax rates which has increased from 20%, 22% to 26%. We will propose to our shareholder meeting in May a stable dividend per share of €1.38 per share, which represent a payout ratio of 57%, the ideas being that our payout ratio should fluctuate around 50%.
Given the strength of our balance sheet, we will propose up to €2 billion share buyback program in the next 3 years between 2026 and 2028, of which we will implement €750 million in 2026. Now moving to 2026, I would like first to come back on our future segment reporting, which is aiming to provide to our shareholders and to all of you a better understanding of our different activity.
In this slide, you will see a pro forma 2025 segment reporting that will allow you in the next quarters to compare our 2026 financial reporting with 2025 actual performance. I would like to highlight four points on this slide.
First, you have probably observed that we have decided to rename our reporting segments to better translate, as much as possible, the nature of our customers. The first segment, which is Automotive and Two-wheels, is mostly addressing consumers, even if through distributors or OEMs.
The second segment has not changed. It's about transportation, goods and people transportation.
Specialties, it speaks by itself, and Polymer Composite Solutions, it's the name that we have shared with you since our last Capital Market Day in 2024. What you will observe is that Consumer and Transportation segments performance has not changed.
Specialty now is made of three business lines: mining, which represent 40% in terms of sales; aircraft, 10%; and beyond-road, 50%. Although specialties are relative for the group with a 13.1% operating margin, this segment is clearly underperforming due to the weight and the performance of our beyond-road activity, which is impacted by the cyclicality of the agro and the construction businesses.
It's clearly, along with SR2, a priority to the recovery of the performance of this subsegment is clearly a priority for the management of the company. You see that the Polymer Composite Solution represent 4.7% of the group sales and nearly 7% of the segment operating income, and it's the most profitable segment in term of operating margin with nearly 15%.
Florent mentioned earlier the acquisitions that we have announced in the past weeks and that will be closed during 2026. In reality, the Cooley Group, the first acquisition, has been closed on the 2nd of February, and we expect Tex-Tech and Flexitallic to close during the first half of the year.
If you take all these activities, they are all North American company, bringing nearly 2,000 new employees within the group, headquartered in different regions, and with an aggregate turnover of €450 million, which is an increase of 35% for PCS, an average operating margin of 17%, which is accretive and relative versus the existing Polymer Composite Solution business, for an enterprise value of around €1 billion, which translate in a ratio of 11.5% EV on EBITDA and even 9.7% if we take the EBITDA of 2025 plus the synergies that we are expecting to extract in the coming 4 years, not taking in account the growth potential, the intrinsic growth potential of these activities. In term of markets, coming back on particularly on the tire market, we are expecting a rather soft market over 2026 with a probably a balanced market between original equipment and replacement, both for truck and passenger car, and probably a more optimistic picture for specialties.
In original equipment in passenger car, due to the fact that the the incentive that has been implemented in China will have probably less effect in 2026, we expect the market not to grow, at least in the first half, and to be close to zero in the in the second half, overall a market that will probably be slightly decreasing versus 2025. On the replacement market, we are confident that the market should slightly grow, and particularly on the second half of the year.
The two-wheel market should as well post a positive trend. In the truck and bus, you see a very contrasted situation in in on original equipment with a still depressed H1, particularly in the North American market.
We expect the OE truck market to decrease by 11% over over the year and with a with a depressed first half and a slight recovery in the second half. The replacement market should be more resilient over the year.
Mining should continue to grow at a mid-single-digit pace. We expect beyond-road to stabilize and start to rebound with the replacement market that should further increase, and we have a positive orientation for aircraft as well as for Polymer Composite Solutions.
In term of guidance, as Florent shared already, we expect to deliver segment operating income at ISO scope and Forex above 2025 and a free cash flow above €1.6 billion before acquisitions. This this this guidance is relying on some key assumptions.
We expect overall for the year to recover a growth in volume, probably with a flat H1 and a slight growth in H2, with a gradual recovery of original equipment market, particularly in B2B. We expect this growth thanks to an increased differentiation from innovation, both in term of product and data.
We should have the tailwind of the raw material that will play for the for the full year. We expect, with the assumptions we have in term of of tariff and Forex, and I might come back on that, we expect the we build our forecast on Forex situation at the end of 2025, a USD around $1.18 per euro and stable tariff situation.
The tariff has impacted us in at around €250 million on the in 20 €230 million in 2025 and should have an impact of around €120 million in 2026. Taking in account all these assumptions and the levers and the willingness of the group to recover the growth path during that year, we believe that we can achieve these ambitions.
Thank you very much, and I think now we can open the Q&A session.
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. If you wish to ask a question, please press * and 1 on your phone keypad.
Please ask your question in English. In the interest of time, we kindly ask you to limit yourself to two questions only.
The first question is from Akshat Kacker, J.P. Morgan.
Please go ahead.
Akshat Kacker
Good evening. Akshat from J.P.
Morgan. I have two questions, please.
The first one on capital allocation: clearly, a greater intent from your side to give back cash to shareholders, almost allocating 100% of free cash flow between dividends and share buybacks. You also mentioned in your prepared remarks about M&A still being a priority.
Could you just remind us how you're thinking about your balance sheet going forward and leverage targets over the cycle, please? That's the first question.
The second one is on your EBIT development in 2025. Now, when I think about the two halves, clearly, very different from each other: €1.45 billion SOI in the first half, €1.25 roughly in the second half.
I remember you telling us that second-half seasonality is for better profits, and you talked about a large element of one-offs based on lower capacity utilization in the second half. Are you in a position to tell us what was the real underlying earnings of the business in the second half excluded for those one-offs, and how should we extrapolate that going into 2026?
Thank you so much.
Florent Menegaux
I will start with a few elements, and Yves will will complement. On the first on the EBIT development and the seasonality, sometimes H2 is better than H1, and sometimes it's the reverse.
Now, 2025 has been really special because of huge movements of inventories across the globe due to the situation in the US. Therefore, this has perturbed the normal cyclicality of markets.
We So today, we don't anticipate the situation to improve in the market in the first semester. We we we have already signals that it is it will be gradually improving based on the circumstances we see now, of course.
It will be gradually improving, we are confident. Plus the fact that we have been very reassured by what happened in the fourth quarter of 2025, where we adjusted It took us some time to realign and readjust what we had to do, but all the strong assets of Michelin are still there, and transformations are still ongoing, and our capacity to grow is still there.
We have tuned, and we have adapted to the market conditions, and it paid it had paid dividend in the fourth quarter. We are confident in our ability to deliver what what Yves just said.
In term of capital allocation, we have decided to to say that our balance sheet is too deleveraged. At 13%, we are we have a lot of flexibility.
Of course, we anticipate the interest rates to decrease in the coming years. We have today debt that are at very at a very advantageous rates.
Basically, we said, okay, we can use our balance sheet that we have generated today to to distribute our dividends according to what we have said, plus to share to buy back shares, because that's that is the past. In the future, our balance sheet is still strong and is very low has very low leverage.
That's why we have said we can do everything without compromising our strategy. Maybe, Yves, if you want to
Yves Chapot
Maybe to focus on this capital allocation, before the COVID, we used to land a year with a cash of around €2.5 billion. With the COVID, with the huge inflationary pressure that we get in 2022, which was nearly a €2 billion on our working capital, and with a much bigger cash at the end of the year, and we consider that it's not optimized to keep this level of cash.
That's why we need as well to come back to a more healthier level.
Florent Menegaux
And Yeah.
Yves Chapot
Of course, we are at 13% gearing. If I take the assumption of at least €1.6 billion of free cash flow, and I had the dividend of a little bit more than €900 million plus €750 of share buyback, it means that we'll increase at the end of the year the debt by nearly €1 billion, which is basically the enterprise value of the acquisition we just announced, which will probably lead us to still land in the round of 20% or below 20% gearing.
We are still in a very healthy and solid situation.
Florent Menegaux
Good to come back on the market situation, I forgot to mention that the fundamentals of passenger car, the mileage driven all across the world, is very stable. It means that the OE being down in most mature markets, what happens is the vehicle park is aging very fast, actually.
It's the same situation in truck, despite the fact that the freight Cass Index in the US is sharply down. The vehicle park is still very much aging.
It cannot age forever. At some point, the market will have to recover, and that's what we start to anticipate.
Akshat Kacker
[unclear] profit comments, should we think about any extraordinary cost in the second-half result or of what you reported in the second half in terms of sharp adjustments to capacity, or do you think that second-half result is a good number to look at when we think about what carries over to the first half of this year?
Yves Chapot
No, because the second half, we had a very contrasted picture between Q3 and Q4. We have a very bad Q3, particularly North America, which lead us to the profit warning in October.
We have a far stronger and far healthier situation in Q4. When we look at the trend of Q4 and projecting Q4 in Q1, it make us relatively optimistic on our ability to improve our operating margin in 2026, starting in the first half.
Akshat Kacker
Thank you so much.
Operator
The next question is from Harry Martin, Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hi,
Harry Martin
yeah. Thanks.
Good evening, everyone. The first question I have is on the price-mix performance.
When we spoke at Q3, you didn't have a lot of confidence in Q4 price-mix, guided it to slow sequentially, driven by what competitors were doing with discounting and imports. In the end, price-mix accelerated in Q4.
How did you achieve that? Which markets were better than the expectations, and how do you feel about the price premium for your products in the key segments?
Then I'd like to ask about the non-tire M&A as well. It'd be good to hear some more of the rationale and how you go about choosing targets.
Of the three acquisitions in the US, some seem to be quite technical products, specialty fabrics and coatings; some, you could say, are a little bit more simple-type products, seals and gaskets. Help us understand where in this very bespoke industry the real value-creation opportunity is, and where that genuine underlying demand growth is for these products.
Thank you.
Florent Menegaux
On the price-mix, what happened during the 2025 was very stressful because we had Q1, we had to fix China; Q2, we had to fix Europe; and Q3, we had to fix US. It moved around, and it put us at in very stressful situation.
Basically, the tariff situation led us to, as we are the leader in price, we led us to adapt to the market conditions and to the tariff situation, which put us out of the market, basically. We were not according to the market situation to the market conditions.
We have adapted. As soon as we have adapted, immediately the the good, strong fundamentals of Michelin came back.
That's why we have seen the price-mix came back. When you're slightly dipositioned Of course, we've lost share during those those moments in the various regions.
We lost share, but we recaptured those lost share very quickly towards the end of the year because we came back to what what is acceptable by the market. Of course, now we have we are much more agile, and we can adapt to any market conditions and any market situation much more quickly than what we were able to do in the past.
We have done a lot of work on this subject. We are now much much more agile.
Maybe, Yves, on the
Yves Chapot
on the non-tire activity. On the
Florent Menegaux
non-tire
Yves Chapot
activity, how do we choose the targets? We have a team in Polymer Composite Solution which is dedicated to this segment.
First, some targets can come from the business units we have already in our portfolio and who has very strong knowledge of their ecosystem, but we are as well studying potential target that are offered to us or that we identify. The criteria have not changed versus what we shared with you during the May 2024 Capital Market Day.
We look at critical applications, where generally the value of the product offered by these companies is relatively small versus the value of the entire system they contribute to move or to make functioning. Then we look at companies or activities where we consider that we have a parental advantage in terms of research and development.
As Florent shared at the beginning, we look at are we able with our capabilities in term of material science to enhance the performance, to reduce the cost, to improve the sustainability of the product that these companies are offering. Then, of course, we look at the financials.
We look at the growth also potential. Are these businesses, these companies in segment that are at risk of commoditization or not?
What are the underlying growth levers? That's why we look at that very carefully.
It took us 3 years basically. In 2023, 2024, we did not achieve 2023, we did
Florent Menegaux
FCG,
Yves Chapot
but 2024 and 2025, we did not achieve any major acquisition. It's just at the very end of the year and early 2026 that we're able to communicate.
It shows that we are both prudent, but as well we want to invest where we can really bring value to the customers, and of course, to the company and our shareholders.
Harry Martin
Thank you.
Operator
The next question is from Martino De Ambroggi, Equita. Please go ahead.
Martino De Ambroggi
Thank you. Good evening, everybody.
Two more questions on the polymers division. What's your best-case scenario in 2, 3 years' time?
Under the current perimeter, you used to provide a medium, long-term target in terms of profitability for your divisions. Now, we have a split of the specialty.
Could you provide any target for the standalone polymers division in the current perimeter? The second question is on the financial leverage, because you mentioned we have low leverage, but what is the maximum amount of cash-out or debt-to-EBITDA?
I don't know, just to understand what is the firepower you are comfortable with in case of additional M&A.
Florent Menegaux
First question, and Yves will probably take the second question. On the first one, in term of profitability, the specialties today is way below where it should be because of the weight of our beyond-road activities that are having a tough time.
We are confident that the specialty business should be at much higher rates, because mining and aircraft are showing it's very strong. If we look at the Polymer Composite Solutions, what I've said in my introduction was it should be in excess of 15%.
Like the specialties, this should be highly relative in term of operating income and even also in cash flow generation, because The Polymer Composite Solutions are light in assets compared to the tire activities. That's why we have chosen to get there.
Now, also the part of the synergies, we have most of the time small cost synergies, but high, and we have demonstrated that with Fenner and also we are demonstrating that with FCG, we have high revenue synergies related to the technology. We can bring the market we get in, like Yves just mentioned.
In term of profitability, we have said PCS should be at minimum 15% and giving us growth for the group, and we intend to grow that share.
Yves Chapot
In term of leverage, first, I did not comment it, but all the rating agencies have confirmed our rating, which is basically A with a stable outlook. We know, basically, that we can increase our debt by a few billion, €3 to €4 billion, without impacting our rating.
It's a first answer: we have the room to stay strong investment grade with a strong investment grade rating while spending, by increasing by €3 to €4 billion our net debt.
Florent Menegaux
I think we have demonstrated so far that we make moves that are interesting for the shareholders in the long run.
Martino De Ambroggi
Thank you.
Operator
The next question is from Monica Bosio, Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Monica Bosio
Hey, good evening, and thanks for taking my questions. I have three, if I may.
The first one is on the price-mix for 2026. If I'm not wrong, for 2026, we should see mostly a mix effect rather than price.
If I'm right, which division will benefit the most from the mix in 2026, if I can ask? The second question is on the truck business.
I understand that the company is implementing actions to make the truck tires less related to the cycle. Considering this action, what do you see as a sustainable margins for this area?
Very finally, the last question is on the SR3. Are you planning any specific action regarding the manufacturing loading rates in beyond tires?
If so, what could be, once again, a sustainable margins for this area? Thank you very much.
Florent Menegaux
On the price-mix effect, you're right. It's mainly a mix effect, but the mix is composed of many different dimensions.
You have the geographic mix, you have the division mix, you have the product mix, you have the segment mix. There are many mixes.
It's unfortunately, we don't have the time to go into the details of the type of mixes, but yes, on the order one, the price it would be more a mix and then price. Remember that we have a lot of indexed businesses, and the raw materials started to go down, and there is a lag in the indexed business, the lag time before we see the decrease in the cost and before it translates into the price.
That's what you start to see in 20 2026. We know very well how to manage pricing, and we understand what are our input costs.
We will be very agile and adapt. In SR2, we have done a lot of restructuring, and we forgot to mention that most of the restructuring in SR2, especially industrial restructuring, is behind us.
In 2025 has been affected by the Cholet closure, specifically, that has a portion of the SR2 business has been heavily affected by that closure. This is behind us now.
It's very easy. Yves has been very clear.
In the downcycle, we want the margins of this business to be not destroying value, and in upper cycle, creating value. That's how we want to drive the business.
When we look at beyond-road, the loading rates are low because of OE, and we know in this business, very cyclical business, when OE gets back, then we almost immediately fall into shortfall. We in backorders and we lack products.
Because the ramp-up is going to be extremely steep. What we are doing is we are flexing our industrial capacities right now so in term of manning, we are very innovative in the way we can flex these plants so that we are less sensitive to the market fluctuation.
Then we cannot give you more details on that.
Monica Bosio
Fair enough. Thank you very much.
Operator
The next question is from Stephen Benhamou, Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Gabriel-Stephen Benhamou
Hello, good evening. I have two questions, please.
The first one is on the raw mat. Can you please give us more detail regarding the magnitude of the raw mat tailwind that you anticipate for 2026, and what's the expected logistic and wages cost inflation that you also anticipate, and what's the phasing between H1 and H2?
This is my first question. My second question is about the share buyback program.
Can you please confirm that you've said that you're committed to a program of €750 million this year, and what about the remaining potential portion of €1.3 billion? Should we expect a balanced program between 2027 and 2028?
Last question is about your potential new roadmap. When do you expect to present this new roadmap?
Thank you.
Florent Menegaux
Okay. I will take the last portion of your two to Actually, it's four questions, but so very quickly, we have said it's up to €2 billion in 3 years on share buyback.
We have said we will launch €750, and we will look where we are at in term of cash generation, our balance sheet, and our acquisitions, and then we will see. On the new roadmap, of course, we are finishing 20 We have to finish 2026, and 2026 just started, and before we come back to you on a CMD to say, okay, what is our roadmap from 2027 up to 2020 2030, and we will give you that roadmap at that time.
Maybe on the two first questions
Yves Chapot
Yeah. On the raw material, we estimate that we'll have a favorable effect around €400 million in 2026 with a negative logistics and wage inflation in the range of €220.
Today, it's around €180 of wages, labor cost, and around €40 million in logistics. Don't forget that we'll have as well €120 million of the 2026 effect of the North American tariffs that we hope to be able to transfer to the market, but we have seen 2025 has shown us that it's not always a long and peaceful journey.
Florent Menegaux
Okay. I think we have to take the last question.
Operator
The last question is from Christoph Laskawi, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Christoph Laskawi
Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions.
Sorry for being relatively short-term. Goodyear commented on a very negative Q1 in volume terms, down 10%.
Given that you've essentially now repositioned in China, in Europe, and the US, could you comment where you expect Q1 volumes roughly to be for the market, and if we should think about your performance be rather in line with the market or slightly different to that? Then just second question, really on the PCS business.
Do you see, after the three transactions year-to-date, the business in a place where you wanted to be, or would there be further white spots that you seek to add? Thank you.
Florent Menegaux
I would not comment on what our competitors are saying. That's down to their business.
We do not see the same thing, and we expect to bring especially the Michelin brand where it should be, and where it has been and where it should be. We have every signal that it should be the case.
Our anticipation in the first quarter, we don't see the market being down 10%. I will not comment further on this.
Maybe on PCS?
Yves Chapot
Maybe to complete the answer to the first question, inventories in distribution for our product is at healthy level in all segments. Everywhere.
For PCS, yes, we are constantly looking at potential opportunities. As as I explained, a deal can takes up to 18 months or 2 years.
The teams are working on some deals, but to tell you when they will be finalized, I don't have a crystal ball, because it depends as well of the willingness of the seller and, of course, our ability to well understand I mentioned the question of the parental advantage, to make sure that we have a real parental advantage. That's why we take the time we need to make sure we are making sound decisions in term of acquisitions.
Florent Menegaux
Thank you. This concludes our call.
Thank you very much for attending. See you soon.
Yves Chapot
Thank you. Bye-bye.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Michelin conference call. Thank you for your participation.
You may now disconnect.
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