K+S AG

K+S AG

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 12, 2026

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the K+S Full Year 2025 Earnings Call. My name is Barbara, and I'll be your Avocor webinar host.

I would now like to hand over to Julia from K+S for some technical notes. Julia, you may now begin.

Julia Bock

Ladies and gentlemen, also from my side, welcome to our call. We hope you had a chance to review our posted slides as well as our full-year documents available on our website.

After the opening remarks by Christian, we will jump directly into the Q&A session. Some technical notes: Please refer to our disclaimer on page 2 of the presentation.

A note on data privacy: Please be aware that the Teams session will be recorded, webcasted, and available as an audio replay on our homepage afterwards. People who ask a question in the Teams session should be clear that by switching on their camera and microphone, they agree to the recording and replay of video and audio sequences.

Now I'd like to hand over to Christian Meyer, our CEO, for the opening remarks.

Christian H. Meyer

Thank you, Julia, and welcome from my side as well. Starting with the quarter: Q4 EBITDA was 17% above the prior-year quarter.

Therefore, we reached the upper half of our full-year guidance range. Firstly, this was due to better prices in both customer segments.

Secondly, EBITDA was affected by a higher drawdown in inventories than last year. This resulted in a negative EBITDA effect which was overcompensated by a positive FX effect due to our hedging.

Full-year free cash flow reached €29 million. Full-year CapEx, €546 million.

In accordance with our dividend policy, we pay out 43% of our free cash flow and therefore propose a dividend of 7 cents per share to the AGM. In the Q4 impairment test, we saw a value recovery of over €484 million.

Just to remind you, as long as we remain below the book value, there will be fluctuations with even minor changes in the parameters due to the long term of the valuation models. Regarding our full-year guidance: We expect global potash demand to rise again this year, following full capacity utilization in 2025.

Potash prices are tangibly higher year-on-year, which will benefit Q1. Further developments will depend on the course of the spring season, when demand from many regions must be met simultaneously.

Demand for non-deicing products in the Industry+ customer segment is also likely to develop positively overall in the current year. Here, we continue to expect moderate price increases for our salt products.

You have all witnessed the exceptional and prolonged winter weather we experienced in January and February throughout Germany and large parts of Europe. This has resulted in a significant upturn in our deicing salt business.

Therefore, we expect significantly stronger sales volumes than in 2025, assuming average winter weather in Q4 2026. We expect EBITDA to range between €600 million and €700 million.

This translates to a midpoint above the 2025 level due to higher potash prices in Q1 and the strong deicing salt business. Free cash flow should at least break even again despite elevated CapEx.

For the upper end of the range, we would need an agriculture volume of 7.6 million tons excluding trade goods and a moderate price increase for MOP in Brazil during the spring season. This has to spill over into other regions and product groups and hold up during the second half of 2026.

The lower end would work with a volume of 7.4 million tons and prices at the level of the end of 2025. Just to give you some thoughts on the first quarter, which should see a better EBITDA than in 2025: We anticipate positive effects from our strong start in the deicing salt business and higher potash prices.

However, negative effects arise from the fact that Q1 is the last quarter with an effect in the year-on-year comparison due to the collective bargaining agreement as well as from the significant inventory buildup that benefited Q1 last year. In closing, I would like to briefly outline the outlook for the future beyond 2026.

We will position K+S as efficiently as possible in terms of resource allocation, structures, and processes to make the company even more robust, also regarding costs. We also want to direct attention to our second pillar, the salt business, in addition to the potash business.

The European salt market has undergone structural changes due to the permanent loss of Ukrainian capacity. Therefore, I would like to clearly state that salt belongs to our core business.

We are focusing on operational improvements as well as further developing our product portfolio and market position. Now, I'm looking forward to answer your questions together with my colleagues Jens and Julia, and I now hand over to the operator to start the Q&A session.

Operator

Thank you very much, Christian. A few technical notes from our side: Kindly ensure that if you want to ask a question, kindly ensure that you press the raise hand icon located on your Teams app, just at the top of your app.

Once you select to ask a question, kindly ensure that you cite both your name as well as your research house. Another request, K+S would like to answer your question one by one, if you have multiple questions, please ask one question at a time, and K+S will answer it first, and after that, you have the opportunity to ask further questions.

This brings us to our first question. It comes from Christian.

Christian, your line is open. Kindly ensure that your device is unmuted, and you may proceed with your question.

Make sure that you announce your research house. Your line is open, Christian.

You may proceed.

Christian Faitz

Yes, good afternoon, Christian, Jens, and Julia and team. Just two questions, I'll ask the first one and then wait as asked for.

Looking at weather data, we had actually [unclear]

Operator

Can you put the camera on, Christian?

Christian Faitz

I can't put the camera on for some reason.

Operator

You can't. Okay.

Christian Faitz

No, I cannot.

Operator

You

Christian Faitz

have to listen to my voice, unfortunately.

Operator

You can try, Christian. I believe that your camera has been activated.

Christian Faitz

Now you can see me, in all my beauty. Yeah.

Thank you. Hi, Christian.

Yes, first question: I believe looking at current weather data, we had a relatively early start to the, let's say, at least growing season in Europe in the Northern Hemisphere. What are your sales people telling you about current demand?

How that is happening, and also could you maybe make some comments about in that context farmer profitability? Farmers are squeezed.

I know that farmers are complaining all the time, but they are complaining. How is potash demand panning out at this point in time?

Thanks.

Christian H. Meyer

Yeah. The potash demand, there we see a good demand as our competitors announced that they are fully sold out for the first quarter.

It's already at the end. That's also the situation for us and also for the first weeks in the second quarter.

There we also have a good demand and that we see more or less globally. The affordability of the farmers, that depends on the different regions.

In general, we can say that the farmers are still earning money with some ups and downs. If you, for example, see the current palm oil price levels, that's a good and healthy level.

As that is a potash eater crop. There we see also strong demands.

Christian Faitz

Perfect. Now my second question: I believe at the Q3 reporting level, you mentioned a planned big maintenance for Bethune for '26.

How is that coming along, and can you tell us about timing there?

Christian H. Meyer

That's in the summertime. That's every three years.

They have three months maintenance. We are on a good way to keep the production level or to increase it a little bit compared to last year.

Christian Faitz

Great. Thanks very much.

Christian H. Meyer

Thanks, Christian.

Operator

Thank you, Christian, for your question. Our next question comes from Ben.

Ben, your microphone is open. You may proceed.

Kindly announce your research house.

Ben Isaacson

Great, thank you. Ben Isaacson, and my research house is Scotiabank.

Good to talk to you all. I just have maybe a high-level question on just everything that's going on in the Middle East.

Christian H. Meyer

Yeah.

Ben Isaacson

When we look at Q4, when we look at fall, we started to see a little bit of resistance to potash demand in some markets, whether it was in North America, a little bit in Europe. Now we look at nitrogen that's kind of not doubled in price, but moving meaningfully higher, and presumably other input costs for the farmer, such as diesel and what not, will also move higher.

Do you not see a scenario where we could actually have potash demand destruction in the back half of the year? I noticed in your guidance, your guidance said that your assumptions take into consideration what's going on in the Middle East.

Maybe you can start by talking about that and how are you thinking about those paths for future demand?

Christian H. Meyer

Yeah. Maybe make a real general picture.

With regards to the situation in the Middle East, there are different stories that you can hear in the markets. Based on the fact that the fertilizer prices increase, that the energy costs increase, normally they say that you have a spillover effect also to the crop prices, if the crop prices increase, and then it's affordable for the farmers and makes sense to apply fertilizers.

The others say, if the prices are too high, then the farmers won't buy any fertilizers. There you have no clear picture.

At the end, I expect as there are still 8 billion people on the Earth, there will be a demand for food, and that they will apply potash, maybe with some volatility. From our perspective, we don't think that this will have a real big impact on the volumes, because we see a good, strong demand in Brazil.

We see a good demand also in Asia, and in Europe and the US, we expect a normal level. With regards to the situation in the Near East, from our position, it's important to know that we have a real low exposure in this market, so that wouldn't be a problem to shift or relocate the volumes to other markets.

Also for the logistics, from our perspective, as we have sites on two continents, we won't have big impacts. Maybe some increases for the oil price for logistics, for the ships, that directly go into the real prices with the formula.

This is an impact for all competitors. That's not a disadvantage, not an advantage for us.

From the region, that's correct, if you have a look to the Strait of Hormuz, 45% of the sulfur has to go through the strait, and it's blocked currently. Also a huge volume of up to 30% of nitrogen is coming from this region.

That there are different stories in the market, what effect that finally will have. But

Ben Isaacson

Yeah. Can I just one follow-up, and then I'll pass it on?

This may be difficult, I'm sure, but on a regional basis, can you talk about which farmers or growers are in best shape and which ones are most at risk of seeing pushback, not necessarily to potash from K+S, but maybe just in general?

Christian H. Meyer

If you go through the different regions, as I just mentioned, US and Europe, we expect a normal base. If you have a look to Asia, especially with the palm oils and so on, there the farmers have a good situation.

US farmers are not in a great shape with the sanctions, but I think they will apply potash especially based on the high harvest of last year. In Brazil, we see a growing acres of the farmers and also a good demand.

We think that's in line with their profitability. In Brazil, I would say it's okay, but especially Asia has a positive outlook.

Ben Isaacson

Perfect. That's very helpful.

Thank you very much.

Christian H. Meyer

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you, Ben, for your question. Our next question comes from Angelina.

Angelina, your line is open. Kindly ensure that your device is unmuted, and please announce your house.

Angelina Glazova

Hello, I hope you can see and hear me okay. It is Angelina Glazova from JPMorgan.

I have one question, but it consists of two parts, I will split it in two. I wanted to ask about your SOP business in Europe.

What is the environment in general right now in terms of demand? I think in the context of the Middle East situation, there is an understanding that quite a lot of sulfur comes from the Middle East and from the affected region, there is possibly an upside risk to sulfur prices.

In this context, I was wondering if you think there is room to increase SOP prices in Europe if that happens, just depending on the demand levels, because those prices have been at quite high levels already,

Christian H. Meyer

and

Angelina Glazova

it's not quite clear whether there is room to further increase them.

Christian H. Meyer

Yeah. As you mentioned, it's very important that round about 40% to 45% of the global sulfur is coming from the Near East, needs to go through the Strait of Hormuz.

They are blocked currently. At present, you don't see much increases for sulfur prices.

From our perspective it will stabilize the premium that we had in the past on a pretty good level. Then it depends finally how long it takes.

What's the difference between us and our competitors, the SOP producers, the Mannheim producers have the challenges to get sulfur physically and the risk where the prices will go. On the other hand, the higher energy costs will affect their production costs, too.

That's our advantage from our side, as we have the sulfur already included in the rock salt, we don't have higher costs for sulfur or the physical deliveries. With our gas consumption, we already hedged 70% of our gas that we need for Germany.

Angelina Glazova

Thank you very much. That is clear.

The second part is a very quick follow-up. Could you please remind us the exposure of SOP business, maybe both in terms of volumes and also, to the extent possible, in terms of earnings sensitivity to price increases?

Julia Bock

Yes. It is 700 to 900 thousand tons.

That is the number that we are having. Therefore, the earnings sensitivity is quite clear, yeah, with that number because price increases directly go through here.

With that 700 to 900 thousand, you know that we can always decide intentionally which way we choose, yeah. If we decide for the so-called SOP Max, that just means that we have a lower volume in total, but we would only decide for that if it makes most sense with regards to EBITDA and margin expansion.

Christian H. Meyer

In addition, it's also important to know that the sulfur component is also included in our Korn-Kali and in our kieserite, but on a lower level. The main effect will come from the SOP.

Angelina Glazova

Understood. Thank you very much.

Christian H. Meyer

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you, Angelina, for your question. Our next question comes from Michael.

Michael, your line is open. You may proceed with your question.

Michael, please ensure that your device is unmuted, and also ensure that you quote your house research.

Michael Schaefer

Happy to do so. Hope you can hear me well.

Michael Schaefer here from ODDO BHF. Thanks for letting me in here.

I want to come back to your outlook statement on the Ag volume. You are I think projecting an increase compared to last year's level, excluding also trading.

7.5 is the lower end, which is even higher than what you reported last year. I wonder where this is coming from given where you are also with the maintenance, the major maintenance shutdown in Canada.

Can you give us a bit of an indication to what extent netback optimization plays a major role in your planning, i.e., more of the specialties maybe than on the potassium chloride, which we have seen in 2025? Thanks.

Julia Bock

Michael, if you'd compare our outlook that we had given for 2025, you would have seen a 7.5 to 7.7, yeah. So 7.4 to 7.6 is still not kind of back at that part, and that is why the increase, production-wise, is totally possible, yeah, with the 100,000 tons coming from Bethune.

Now it's just a question of the product mix, yeah. We did not reach that 7.5 to 7.7 because we decided for SOP Max, yeah.

Now the final outcome between the 7.4 and 7.6 will totally depend on SOP Min or SOP Max, not the increase in Bethune. That will come with 100,000.

Michael Schaefer

Good, understood. The second question is going back to what you flagged before, i.e., that the overlooked salt business which you have.

Let's divide the question into two. Maybe give us a bit of an understanding.

You talked about price increases and obviously strong volume evolution in deicing. Can you give us a bit of an indication what kind of earnings contribution we should expect from those, let's say, non-deicing and deicing type of businesses underlying?

Because obviously you're not reporting that anymore, unfortunately, but just giving us a bit of a color here on the sensitivities looking into '26. Thanks.

Christian H. Meyer

Yeah. We are very happy with our salt business.

As you know that we are not reporting the figures of the earnings, but you see it finally from the revenues, the increases. As the cost levels are pretty close the same, some smaller increases, then you can see that, yeah, our earnings or netbacks are higher.

We have real low capital because the mines are pretty old, the book values are written down, even have no high impacts from depreciation, neither from CapEx volumes. We don't need higher CapEx volumes in this area, so that's a low capital intensity.

The volumes coming from deicing, these are not the highest prices or highest netbacks. If we have high deicing volumes, then the average price will go down.

That's a normal effect. In total, the absolute earnings will increase, especially if we are able to sell round about 500,000 tons more compared to last year with the deicing business.

That has not the effect like pharma salt.

Michael Schaefer

Understood. Thanks.

Christian H. Meyer

Michael.

Operator

Thank you very much, Michael, for your question. Our next question comes from Joel.

Joel, your line is open. You may proceed with your question.

Joel Jackson

Hi, Joel. Joel Jackson, BMO.

Thanks for doing a North American-friendly call time. More of that, thank you very much.

Christian H. Meyer

Just for you, Joel.

Joel Jackson

More of that, and Ben. Ben across the street appreciates that.

I was interested in your FX assumptions, where you're assuming a 1.2 exchange rate for the year, EUR/USD, but we're at 1.15. It makes a big difference on earnings.

Can you explain that assumption?

Christian H. Meyer

Sure, we can. Our assumption is 1.20 for the year, and obviously we are hedged on a free cash flow level, but just only to some extent on EBITDA level.

So $0.05 lower exchange rate would, yeah, end up in €20 million higher EBITDA. That's the sensitivity.

Joel Jackson

How much are you hedged this year and at what rate? I may have missed some things, sorry.

Christian H. Meyer

We have 70% on a cash flow level, on the revenues, and

Joel Jackson

on the On the on the OpEx? On the OpEx?

Christian H. Meyer

On the FX, yeah. On the EBITDA level, it's round about 50%, and the hedging rate is 1.14 for the worst case, and the best case is 1.09.

Joel Jackson

You're also 70% hedged for gas? That's 70%?

Just making sure. Okay.

Christian H. Meyer

Yeah.

Joel Jackson

Okay. Second question I have for you is obviously sulfur is really extended here, and might get more extended, and we all know why, and it was extended before 4 March.

As you've got a free feedstock of sulfur that doesn't come from the Middle East, unique ways you can maximize the value of sulfur you have, or should we expect the SOP premium over MOP to rise substantially? Are you seeing that from customers?

You mentioned Korn-Kali as well. Should we expect that premium to rise going forward?

Christian H. Meyer

With the sulfur, that's depending on the situation, if it finally will spill over to the prices. We have limited access to the sulfur because that's all included in the rock salt, and there we are only able to, as Julia just explained, switch between 700 and 900 thousand tons with the SOP.

As I just mentioned, based on the current situation, we expect that the premium will be at least stable for the year. If there will be some higher impacts that at the end our competitors won't have access to the sulfur, then it could increase.

That's also depending on the seasonality when you need this SOP, and if in this situation then the sulfur finally is, yeah, not accessible.

Joel Jackson

Finally, are you worried about European potash demand? It kind of dovetails a bit of what Ben was asking earlier, but specifically

Christian H. Meyer

No?

Joel Jackson

Okay. Gas price, CBAM, I know the season's been late for fertilizer in Europe.

Should we be worried about it?

Christian H. Meyer

No. From Europe, there we expect a normal demand.

Joel Jackson

Thank you.

Christian H. Meyer

Thanks to you. Thanks for joining.

Operator

Thank you, Joel. Thank you for your question.

We're going to move to our next question. It comes from John.

John, your line is open. Kindly ensure that your device is unmuted and provide your research house.

John Campbell

Hi, everyone. It's John Campbell with Bank of America.

Thanks for taking my questions. I've got two, please, if I can.

Could you maybe elaborate on perhaps your potash sales mix by individual region, say, in 2025, presumably Brazil, China, Europe, maybe if you could lay out those percentages, that would be helpful. Also if you could maybe give any guidance kind of where you expect volumes to be settling in terms of the different regions in 2026 as well?

Okay.

Christian H. Meyer

Pretty close, the half of all volumes we are able to sell within Europe, Euro-based. That's also very important for us, there we are independent from the US dollar FX rate.

We have round about a million tons to Brazil and a little bit lower to Asia. These are the main areas.

John Campbell

Very good. Any steer on 2026?

Would you expect a stable share?

Christian H. Meyer

It could be stable. There we have some volumes to China, and to Brazil.

There we permanently optimize our regional mix to optimize the netbacks, there we are able to shift, for example, to Brazil or to Asia or maybe to keep some more volumes in Europe depending on the price levels. That also depends finally on the logistics situation and the logistics costs, because there we have the big advantage compared to our competitors that we have lower logistics costs compared to the others with our roots.

John Campbell

Very clear. Thank you.

Second question: Do you have any kind of sense or reading on the levels of inventory in some of the major markets? I think in 2025, Chinese inventories were a big topic.

Presumably there's a lot of other bigger topics going on at the moment, but do you have any kind of updates in China and Brazil and India?

Christian H. Meyer

Yeah. Starting with India, the inventories are pretty low currently.

Everybody is waiting for that India signs the contract with others. We are not at the table for the negotiations.

With China, they are catching up a little bit with their port stocks to their strategic volumes, but what we still see is a good demand and keeping the price level at a pretty high level for the cross-border deliveries from Russia to China. That reflects finally that there will be also a good demand.

Brazil is maybe a little bit lower, but coming back to normal level. In total, there we see a strong demand, especially in Brazil.

John Campbell

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much, John, for your question. Our next question comes from Oliver.

Oliver, your line is open. You may proceed with your question.

Kindly ensure that your device is unmuted, and please cite your research house.

Oliver Schwarz

Yes, thank you very much for taking my questions. Research house is Warburg Research.

My name is Oliver Schwarz, and obviously I'm taking the questions one by one. I'd like to challenge you on your guidance, the upper end.

You stated that in that guidance is baked in a slightly higher prices both at the beginning of the year and also as a sustainable level of those higher prices towards the end of the year. Given the situation in the Middle East, obviously, let's say, shipping rates are bound to go up, bunker oil is getting more expensive, shipping room is getting more scarce, transport routes are likely to expand to avoid the bottleneck we currently have at the border of Iran.

You other than your competitors normally don't communicate prices ex-factory, but including freight and insurance. Hence, if the freight prices go up, obviously the prices go up as well, because that's just a pass-through item for you guys.

On the other hand, the price for your product that you receive for the product isn't increasing despite the overall price increase. What would you say we will need on top of the current price as you see, for example, in Brazil with 380, as a sustainable level for, let's say, the average of the current year to basically reflect the likely higher transport costs?

Christian H. Meyer

Finally or maybe important is that the higher logistical costs, the freight costs, based on the mentioned facts from your side, that also our competitors are affected by. That could increase the prices maybe furthermore.

What's very important, what we expect for the current year for the upper end, a moderately higher price compared to the February level. At the spring season that we see moderately higher prices and that will be reflected or spill over to other regions and other products, and this moderately higher prices will also last for the second half of the year.

That's very important. Then we are able to reach the upper end.

With the higher freight costs, I expect that that should be finally reflected because our competitors will be affected, too, so that will be compensated, higher costs and maybe other price fluctuations.

Julia Bock

In the outlook, we have basically based the outlook on the fact that we have normal shipping rates, then the prices need to go up moderately, yeah. If you have not normal shipping rates for the upper end, they would probably need to go up a few euros more.

It's not much, yeah, for the full year and for the ASP to be able to get that.

Christian H. Meyer

Excellent. Second question is in regards to your competitors from Israel.

Oliver Schwarz

Obviously, the route to Europe for them is getting more attractive than the route towards the south. Hence, are we likely to see more competition in the European market from those suppliers?

Christian H. Meyer

You are talking about ICL and the Arabian Potash Company from Jordan. Israel can use the ports in Haifa, but also go through the Gulf of Aqaba and Suez Canal.

At the end, the ships avoid to go to the East along Yemen, also before the Iranian situation. I think that wouldn't change the situation.

That's a competition like before.

Oliver Schwarz

Thank you very much. Last question is on the let's say, the impairment in summer and the reversal now in Q4.

Obviously, that has very much to do with Argus prices or perhaps the prices you take into account for potash on the longer-term basis. Just to get, let's say, a feeling for the sensitivity of your model that you use to calculate the value of your assets, can you just give us a feeling what you change in your internal calculations to come up with, let's say, this chunk we saw now in Q4 that's basically written back?

We are talking about substantial numbers here. What did basically trigger that reversal?

Christian H. Meyer

We have different factors and we named them all in our annual report, very clear. This time, we had a change in the WACC, it decreased from 8.7 to 8.2.

This has an effect of, yeah, roughly 500 million, and that was the write-back we saw in the second half or in the fourth quarter. No changes with regard to the potash assumptions.

They stays the same. No changes there.

Oliver Schwarz

Understood. Thank you very much.

Christian H. Meyer

Thanks to you.

Operator

Thank you, Oliver. A gentle reminder to all, now we have the opportunity to ask additional questions.

If you would like to ask any question, feel free to press the hand raise icon located on your Teams app. We'll wait here shortly and pause here shortly to allow any other questions to generate.

Team, it appears as though we have no further questions at this point, I'll hand over the call back to you for any final remarks.

Christian H. Meyer

Thanks to all of you for your questions, and I wish you a really great springtime and a good Eastern, and see you soon.

Operator

Bye.

Oliver Schwarz

Bye-bye.

Christian H. Meyer

Bye.

Operator

Thank you, team. As a reminder, this call was recorded, and a recording will be made available shortly after today's conference.

Thank you all for your participation, and have a great day.