CTT - Correios de Portugal SA

CTT - Correios de Portugal SA

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Nov 03Next Earn

Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 29, 2026

Guy Pacheco

Good morning to you all and welcome to our first half 2026 conference call. I would invite you to start in on page 4, where we see our core business, CEP and mail services continuing to perform strongly, with temporary headwinds on Cacesa as players anticipate the new regulatory context of de minimis.

We had a very healthy organic growth of 6.3%, with strong contribution from our CEP business, also a strong contribution from our mail and services that is disguised by the effect of elections that accounted for €8.6 million last year. We also had a strong contribution from mail, and bank contributing 7.4% to the growth.

Our EBIT declined 8.4% despite a good contribution from our CEP business and a very strong contribution of mail and services, with Cacesa, given this anticipation of the regulatory context, weighing on the evolution due to its high incremental margin. All in all, the underlying engine of the group remains healthy, and the pressure in Cacesa is temporary in nature, linked to this regulatory transition.

On the next slide, we can see accelerated growth of e-commerce volumes, with very strong growth be it including or excluding DHL Portugal. Organically growing almost 21%, and overall growing 24% in volume, very strong growth.

With a very good news of diversification, we see on the right side of the slide a strong diversification from cross-border, non-EU, Tier 1 to other kinds of players, namely Iberian players and EU-source e-marketplaces that continue to grow traction within our portfolio, and this brings resilience to our business going forward. We are increasingly exposed to the structural growth of e-commerce demand in Iberia, and this remains very much so the underlying dynamic in our business.

On page 6, we see the financials of our CEP, with, once again, a solid revenue growth above volumes, with sequential acceleration, with organic growth growing 21.2%. Our EBIT also growing 5.4%, with a very robust margin that is normalizing, although some mix and fuel inflation impacts were felt, and we are actively managing profitability with a number of implemented actions in terms of optimization of linehaul, handling, and last mile.

On slide 7, we see our early validation on the JV of DHL synergies, where we continue to see significant synergies of €17.5 million, a big portion of that coming from revenues, 40%, and then 50% coming out of operation efficiency and support functions. We know that the JV gives us more than scale, give us commercial reach, network density, and operational specialization, which are key building a stronger e-commerce platform in Iberia, with this enlarged offering and more strength on operations.

On slide 8, we see the customs clearance activity that remains under pressure. The business environment remained very volatile, caused by regulatory volatility, changing in flows, and airport shifts, but we are taking concrete actions to protect profitability.

We are reducing our workforce and optimizing temporary workforce, while actively managing our facilities in warehouse in order to protect the decline in revenues and strong decline on EBIT that you can see on the chart. We chose to spend a little bit more time explaining the trends around this business as we see this strong impact in the customs business driven by two regulatory changes: one affecting only the Spanish business, that is the introduction of the G4 regulation; and the anticipation of what has been implemented in the 1st of July, that is the end of the de minimis exemption, where all the goods below €150 will be charged a €3 per product fee per category, noting that in November is to be expecting an additional fee of €2 per parcel that will bring still more volatility.

Stricter regulation in Madrid and supply chain reorganization are, in anticipation of the new regulations, what is driving the change of volumes, as CTT or Cacesa has different market shares in all these airports, and we are seeing volumes moving from Madrid to Eastern Europe and Central Europe, namely Benelux. In Eastern Europe we have strong market share in Poland, so that is good news, but in the Central European part, Cacesa is not as strong in the market, and that is driving the decline in share and those volumes.

We see this as temporary, and we see the market evolving to B2B clearance and fulfillment, where we have strong capabilities, and this regulatory reset is creating opportunities that we are already acting on with strong leads from a number of marketplaces in Iberia within this combination of clearance and fulfillment that does bring us comfort that the reorganization of the business will evolve to a context where we will continue to have strong share and growth opportunities. In slide 10, we see our e-commerce solutions as a whole, including the CEP and non-CEP, customs business.

Still strong growth of 12.7% organically, with the strong momentum of CEP offsetting the regulation anticipation impact on Cacesa. In EBIT, not the same dynamics, as the incremental margin of the customs business is putting pressure on margins, and our EBIT is declining 26.9%.

I would highlight this very marked different dynamics between the two businesses, and highlighting that we see on customs this as temporary in nature. With that, I would pass the floor to João Sousa to guide you through the mail and financial services.

João Sousa

Thank you, Guy. Good morning, all.

As you can see on slide 11, second quarter confirms strong acceleration in saving placements, driven by higher higher higher subscription limits, attractive interest rating, and growing digital adoption. At the same time, health plans continue to scale, reinforcing the diversification in our service revenue base.

Also, we see that in in our insurance services. On the left slide on the left side of the of the slide, on public debt placements, we can see that average public average monthly public debt placement reached €547 million in the second quarter of 2026, up to 60% when compared with the last quarter, and up to 40% year on year.

Total subscription amount to approximately €1.62 billion during the quarter, reflecting a very strong recovery from the customer demand for savings products, distributing through the our CTT network. This performance is driven by three factors: so higher higher saving certificates.

As subscription limits was was was have a higher higher subscription limits was last year was increasing, attractive interest rates, and the customer continue to confidence in this kind of low-risk saving products. Also, I would like to highlight that digital channels continue to gain relevance.

Digital saving subscription are representing around 12% of the all transactions. In May, it was May becoming the best month ever, surpassing 20 million on from this this channel.

The outlook of public debt placements, looking ahead, looking remained very positive. We continue to see a strong customer demand for savings certificates, support by the the attractiveness of the this product through through a customer placement.

At the same time, the launch of the new treasury certificates generate additional demand from customers seeing seeing longer investment horizons. It's important to highlight that this we are not seeing a meaningful cannibalization between these two products.

We see an increasing and not a cannibalization. On contrary, we see new customers comes to our stores or to our digital platforms, and so that's the way we see an outlook very positive until the end of the year for this for this saving products in our network.

On health plans, we continue to see to perform pretty well, as you can see in the left side of the of the slide. The number of of customers reached 55.8 thousand customers, representing a growth of 13% versus last year and 19% of versus 2024.

This growth validates our ability to developing a subscription-based services and create a customer relationships behind our traditional postal services. We are doing this on the health plans and also in the insurance services and creating these new services in our retail network.

In summary, we are seeing a strong acceleration in savings placements, supports by both our physical and digital channels, and outlook for the next quarters remains favorable, with strong demand for both savings certificates and now this new product that we launched in 6th of July. At the same time, health plans and insurance continue to grow, reinforcing the diversification of CTT's services portfolio.

On the next slide, slide 11 sorry, slide 12, where we see the mail and service revenues, despite the challenging cooperation base created by the May of '25, because we had this legislative elections, mail and service revenues delivered a very solid performance. Because if you exclude the only one-off effect, revenues grow, savings placement accelerate significantly, and business solutions continue to expand, and in that way, profitability improved materially.

As you can see, revenues reached €127.9 million in the second quarter on '26, compare with €130.4 million in the period year in the in the compared with last year. However, this compression is significantly if impact by the contribution from the Portuguese legislative, this one-off.

If we exclude this, we can see this growth of 5% quarter on quarter. Growth was driven by savings placements, business solutions, and the the resilience of the addressed mail revenues.

I would like to highlight this addressed mail revenues, that the addressed mail revenues declined 7.5% from 88.9 million compared with 82.2 million items. However, the revenue impact was sustainability lower.

This means that, excluding the election effects, addressed mail revenues would have declined only 0.9%, demonstrating a significant revenue resilience. This continue to demonstrate our ability to manage the structural decline in physical mail while protecting both revenue and profitability.

Also, like we saw before, savings placement also continue to to increase the revenues on our activity, increase 56.1%, reaching €1.3 million in the second quarter of '26, and the total subscription increased 40%, approximately €1.62 billion. Business solutions, the revenues increased 7.8%, reaching €19.6 million during the quarter.

This becomes a huge assets to our diversification in these business units. We see also a very positive outlook until the end of the year and and and also a very good way to to continue to help to to diversify this business area.

On the right side, you can see that the profitability, recurring EBIT reached €9.6 million, representing 37 37.3% year on year. Recurring EBIT margin improved from 5.4% to 7.5%.

If you adjust the election effect, the recurring EBIT growth have been 1 149%, highlighting the strong operation leverage that we have been doing in this segment. That we can see that this business area that can be very, very positive, because even we increase the the savings certificates, this revenues, you are seeing an increase of margin much higher than coming just from the revenues of of the the the savings certificates, sorry.

Now I pass for Joana.

Joana Freitas

Thank you, João. Good morning, everyone.

Talking now about the bank, the bank has seen a very robust quarter in terms of growth. In business volumes, you can see that all categories have had a double-digit growth, both deposits, off-balance savings, loan book, accounting for nearly 40% of growth quarter on quarter.

The current accounts, you can see the number is slightly growing, but there was a correction caused by the Bank of Portugal asking to eliminate accounts that were inactive for the past 24 months, there's a slight difference on previous numbers that you may have seen. We continue to see a very strong performance in the path for growth.

It's translated also in the growth of banking revenues. Banking revenues went up 7.4% in the quarter, both in net interest income, in commissions.

There's a slight decrease in the category other that has to do with transactions and operations that happened last year that are not recurrent, namely the sale of an NPL portfolio and credit recovery in the 321 Crédito unit. Looking at recurring EBIT, we are continuing our strategy of reinvesting the proceeds of the business in creating technology and commercial capability for future profitability growth.

We do see a slight decrease in recurring EBITDA from 5.6 to 5.2 in the in the second quarter of '26, and maintaining our RoTE at around 12.1%. I would say a quarter that continues to deliver on growth and investing for future improved profitability.

On the next page, I think we now move to page 15, you have our financial indicators. Here you can see the full full consolidation with with the bank and no pro forma adaptations.

I would highlight that we have a strong revenue growth quarter on quarter, 11.7%. We have the recurring EBITDA decreasing over the year on year, but increasing improving versus the first quarter of of this year, on a positive trend sequentially.

Also free cash flow at €31 million, improving 35% versus versus the last quarter. These would be my highlights for for this page.

To continue on page 16, and deep looking deeper into the revenues, here we can see that revenues grew at 6.3%, a solid performance that was underpinned by by CEP and by mail and services if you isolate for the effect of last year's elections. E-commerce solutions grew €20.2 million.

That's a combined effect of a drop in revenues that we consider to be temporary in the customs clearance area of 6.3, and then a very significant growth, organic growth in the e-commerce where greater volumes are translating into higher revenue and also underpinned by higher revenue per item. In mail and services, we have here the effect of elections, as I was saying.

If we didn't have that, this would have grown some 5% instead of a decrease of 1.9%. We're seeing the underlying drivers of growth to be quite resilient.

The bank contributing here with €2.6 million or 7.4% increase quarter on quarter. On the right-hand side, you can see that e-commerce solutions continues to be over half of our total revenue, the growth engine of of the group, representing already more than half of our of our revenues.

On mail and services, this decrease again, if we had isolated for elections, would be a a slight positive of 0.6%, also showing resilience and stability. On the next page, if we look at costs, we have adjusted the operating costs related to EBITDA to account for the pro forma incorporation of Cacesa and DHL to have a comparable basis.

In that, starting with that with that basis, costs grew 7.6% in in the quarter. They were driven mainly by the organic activity of the CEP business, and also influenced by fuel inflation.

We can see that e-commerce solutions, we have a decrease in costs in the non-CEP business, adjusting for capacity and putting in place cost reduction measures to counter the effect of the drop in revenues. Then the the remainder is the €26 million increase in costs has an impact of cost of fuel prices of €2.4 million in the quarter, and the rest essentially accompanying the organic growth of e-commerce.

In mail and services, we actually saw can see a very positive decrease in costs. Cost optimization initiatives continuing to to deliver, including headcount reduction and optimization of operations.

The bank investing in its commercial capacities and digital transformation for for future growth. In the lower right-hand side, you have the first half OPEX split breakdown.

Again, these numbers, they don't account for any pro forma adjustment of the inclusion of of Cacesa, just small comment. For example, staff, if you account for like-for-like comparison, would would have grown only 2%, which essentially linked to the growth of minimum salaries, and so overall a more stability in costs.

On page 18, looking at the EBIT performance, we can see that EBIT has been pulled essentially by our CEP and mail and services, starting here at €28 million with the adjusted Cacesa and DHL pro forma incorporations. We can see on the e-commerce solution this temporary effect that we're seeing in the in the customs sector, decreasing EBIT by 5.1% €5.1 million, positive influence of the e-commerce solutions of 0.5, and then mail and services growing 3.7%, and a slight decrease in the bank, as we saw before.

All in all, the margin remains at a at a robust level of 7.4%, and we can continue to see a recurring EBITDA that is improving and expected to improve in the rest of the year. On the next page, page 19, just talking a little bit about our leverage ratio and our debt.

In terms of cash flow, we've seen a significant improvement in the change of working capital. The values for the first quarter of this year were -37.3.

They have been improving on on the second quarter. They're still negative, but we are seeing a improvement in in this category.

Operational cash flow also growing quarter on quarter, now standing at 8.4, but comparing with the second quarter of 37.5, we are seeing also a positive trend on the evolution of cash flow. Free cash flow stands at -6.9 at the end of the first half, but again, we're seeing a continued improvement.

The first quarter was -€33 million, the second quarter plus €26 million, we're we're seeing a positive trend there. In terms of the evolution of net debt, our net debt has has decreased.

We've had payment of dividends, share buy our share buyback program, and the proceeds of the transaction with DHL that has taken us to a €292.8 million net debt at the end of of the period. That means that our leverage ratio, net debt to EBITDA, has now improved to 1.8 times from 2.4 times, giving us significant strategic flexibility and allowing for for space for capital allocation as as as we see.

With that, I would pass on to to Guy.

Guy Pacheco

Thank you, Joana. On slide 21, you can see our updated guidance, a growth guidance that is underpinned by a strong core business growth, despite temporary customs volatility.

CEP volumes and revenues continue to perform well. Mail services is delivering on profitability, and we continue to see a good cash flow generation.

We are also guiding, I should say, with a lot of transparency. We are breaking our guidance in two parts: one with a lot of ambition to grow our core, with an overall growth of double-digit growth and high teens if we exclude the bank, and so guiding to what we consider here core, CEP, mail, and Banco CTT, to a growth of 7% to 12% to be in a range of €105 to €110 million.

Then, highlighting that the current context and still the implementation of a new levy in the end of the year brings limited visibility to Cacesa, and as such, we are giving a broader range and also highlighting to the high risk of execution, but all in all, providing a guidance that will be between €115 and €125 million. This guidance is based in the assumptions of a flattish Banco CTT recurring EBIT, as was previously guided; a continue strong performance from mail and services given the efficiency measures that we continue to implement and a good outlook on financial services; and we continue to see growth on the CEP volumes that will lead to an overall high single-digit growth in the full year of 2026; and, obviously, with some key risks that is the Cacesa or the customs part and still some volatility around CEP volumes on the post-de minimis world, and continuous inflation pressure on fuels, that continue to be driven by geopolitical instability, namely on the Middle East.

On slide 22, we firmly believe that we'll continue to deliver our future growth, building in our strategic foundations. We had a very good quarter in our core, with CEP and mail revenues remaining very healthy, with excellent trading momentum in mail and services, and very strong growth on CEP that we continue to expect to grow during the second half of the year, and with additional EBIT margin improvement.

A tougher second quarter on Cacesa, but we continue to be actively managing profitability in order to preserve it, and we see amidst this temporary volatility relevant opportunities to gain share in the B2B clearance and grow on the logistics fulfillment arena. Our recurring EBIT guidance for the non-CEP excluding non-CEP between €105 and €110 million, for overall guidance of growth between €115 and €125 million.

We remain very disciplined on capital allocation. We aim to continue to invest in our growth and improve profitability, looking for additional workforce and cost base optimization, something that we have been actively doing, and our specific items on the quarter show the effects of those efficiencies that also show through the mail and service numbers.

We'll continue to optimize our portfolio, tilting it to a high-growth e-commerce value chain, and we want to remain with some flexibility for inorganic growth on the sectors that we have been previously mentioning. We will keep shareholder remuneration discipline, including the recurring dividend, but also with opportunistic buybacks.

That's why we are increasing our current share buyback program with an additional €10 million, taking opportunity of the attractive prices, and keeping still additional flexibility on our balance sheet following the proceeds of DHL JV. We'll continue to use the flexibility of our balance sheet as a strategic optionality.

With that, I will turn the floor to your questions and answers that we will be pleased to answer.

Nuno Vieira

We are now available to take your questions. As a reminder, analysts that wish to place a question should click on the button to raise your hands, and we will give you access to the microphone.

Analysts dialing from a phone line should press star nine to raise your hands, and star six to unmute yourself. Our first question comes from João Safara.

João, you have been allowed to talk. Please ask your question.

João Safara

Hi, guys. Good morning.

Hopefully you can hear me well. I have three questions, basically.

The first one on Cacesa, and just I wanted to understand a little bit better what's happening here? I'm surprised that, obviously with the de minimis, and when I look to your second half guidance, we actually see an improvement versus the first half of the year.

That it would be useful to understand what drives your confidence there on this improvement, considering that the uncertainty is still there. Or maybe I'm wrong and we've seen some anticipation of this already in the first half of the year, and so that's what makes your €7 to €12 million of EBIT contribution from non-carrier express and parcels, which is mainly Cacesa, to explain this.

This would be the question on Cacesa, if you can help me there. Then, the second question is on mail.

It was quite a strong performance excluding the impact of elections. I understand, as you're saying, there's well, a recurrent theme here, which is the cost savings.

Do you think this kind of contribution to EBIT, assuming that addressed mail revenues remain more or less the same, is and also, obviously, excluding the impact of financial services, just taking out everything else other than financial services, if this is sustainable in the next quarters? Then, also connected to this, we saw a 17% increase in other revenues, and if you could help us understand why this increase?

Then, the last question on Banco CTT, you confirmed you have received an unsolicited, non-binding offer. Was this the first one?

Have you been approached by other players? Are you now basically more willing to accept offers than you were in the past?

If you could give us some color there also, it would be helpful. Thank you.

Guy Pacheco

Thank you, João. On Cacesa, our guidance actually is based on what is the normal seasonality of the business, that, as is very leaned towards the peak season on the fourth quarter, and customs business is not an exception on that regard.

We are seeing also improvement from where we are as we are expecting some normalization on the world of the post-de minimis. On the customs side of things, the effects weren't slightly anticipated, more than on the last mile.

I also want to be transparent saying that was here the reorganization of flows between airports that are driven by stricter regulation in Madrid in terms of the G4 introduction, and also cosmetic bans that are more a local issue, with supply chain reorganizations as these players are moving to fulfill in Europe. Then geography plays a role here.

Eastern Europe is easier to access from Asia, and Central Europe is easier to distribute around Europe. We are seeing that reorganization happening, and happening before the actual de minimis taking place, because obviously players are anticipating that already in the months ahead of the actual 1st of July.

We are also seeing strong decline in their investment in marketing, because they were expecting some operational volatility, and as such, they are refraining of having huge volumes during this uncertain times. Good news is operationally everything, at least in our operations, went very well and very smooth.

We are confident they will resume normal course of business, and volumes will improve, although being quite clear that that is a lot of lack of visibility, and especially we still have the handling fee in November. That's why we are also labeling this part of the guidance with more risk of execution.

In terms of mail, we are seeing two, three, three positive things. The financial services was a quite good quarter, and the dynamics with the introduction of the new product, a long-term product that caters to a different kind of demand, is accelerating placements, tailwinds there.

Business solutions and all the diversification areas of revenues are also performing well, with good incremental margins, and that is also helping. We see amongst what has some seasonality around mail, because third quarter tends to be a little bit more depressed and fourth quarter more stronger, some resilience on the margins on that side, given everything that we are doing in terms of savings, and also some positive impact of average price, as the pricing formula and mix evolution continues to drive unit prices up there.

In terms of Banco CTT, I will basically not add that much to the announcement that we made. As you mentioned, we received an unsolicited offer of an non-binding for a potential transaction on Banco CTT.

This is obviously leading us to evaluate the strategic alternatives that we have across our portfolio of assets, but that's what we can say for now. We also confirm that we have a financial advisor engaged in order to look to this strategic matters, and I wouldn't add much more at this point.

Joana Freitas

If I can take the question also on the other that you were asking on the mail, we do have a positive revenue growth linked to the payment of a social mobility allowance that is contributing positively to that evolution. Also, in fulfillment and others, we have the Decofarma business that only became part of CTT scope in August 2025, so that difference is also there.

Also a positive evolution of central structure, so that's what's driving those changes. In terms of mail, you were asking, is this contribution sustainable for the quarter?

We have seen a good evolution in terms of registered mail, a good evolution in terms of the price mix. We hope to continue to see that, and to carry on with our efforts in terms of also optimizing not only the operational, but also the headcount there.

Nuno Vieira

Thank you, João.

João Safara

Thank you.

Nuno Vieira

Our next question comes from Filipe Leite. Filipe, you have been allowed to talk.

Please unmute yourself and ask your question. Hi.

Filipe Leite

Hello, everyone. I have three questions if I may.

First one regarding CEP volumes, and if you can give us additional visibility on the July volumes after the changes in the de minimis regulation, just to understand the initial impact of these changes in your CEP volumes during this month. Second question also on CEP volumes, because you are saying that to reach your guidance, the revised guidance, you are assuming CEP volumes growing at least high single digit in full year.

This came after a very strong first half with almost 19 or more than 19% growth in terms of volumes on CEP volumes. This leads to a quite conservative assumption for the second half, with almost no growth if we consider this high single-digit expectations for the full year.

Is this related with the expected impact of de minimis, or should we expect anything negative on the second half to impact CEP volumes? Last question on public debt placement, and if you can give us additional visibility regarding your guidance, what level of public debt placement are you assuming for the second half, if this compares with second quarter, if we should expect higher or lower debt placements in second half when compared with this already strong second quarter?

Thank you.

Guy Pacheco

Thank you, Filipe. On CEP volumes, as when we discuss de minimis, we already mentioned, and we continue to see, some volatility on volumes on this coming months.

We continue to see a very strong growth of demand in all the European accounts and Iberian accounts, as we try to show in the slide with the mix or the diversification on there. We see strong growth in international accounts, those big brands that are direct to consumer, and also European marketplaces.

Also in Chinese marketplaces like TikTok that are not cross-border, are more local to local, we continue to see there also strong demand. This what is helping us to offset the declines that we are seeing on the big three platforms, as their GMVs, and this is publicly numbers, are declining between 30% and 40%, that GMV.

We see July as the bottom of this, as they refrain from marketing, as they were anticipating some operational issues, adaptation to all of this. I remind that they need to deal with this country by country, there is some complexity of the difference of interpretation of this new regime across European countries.

In July, we are expecting to have a decline between 2% and 3% overall, so that shows that the rest is performing well and offsetting most of the decline. That we see as the Chinese normalize and we continue to have a strong demand on the other side, we see growth on the second half of the year, obviously not on the 20% that we are showing right now, but we see this progressively evolving.

As we mentioned in the past, we have two similar events in the recent past, the first on the US and the other on the de minimis on 2021, where the impact of the non-European marketplaces was felt between 6 to 9 months, and this is what we are expecting until resuming a normal path of growth. Luckily, we continue to see strong demand on the other side, and this all in all will continue to contribute to growth.

In terms of financial services, we increase demand as João mentioned and we mentioned throughout our presentation. This new product is adding up a new class of demand, it's not cannibalizing the other placements, as it seems that there is demand for this more long-term product.

We are not giving specific guidance on the breakdown of the two, but I can mention that we are assuming guidance a growth in parcels, CEP, and growth on financial service placements year on year, with the dynamics that you know.

Nuno Vieira

Thank you, Filipe. Our next question comes from Joaquín García-Quirós.

Joaquín, you have been allowed to talk. Please unmute yourself.

Joaquín García-Quirós

Yes, for taking my questions. Most of them were already answered, but I have a couple of questions.

One regarding the margin for especially the CEP part of the e-commerce solution. It has improved regarding the first Q, but still lower than it was last year.

If you can explain to us a bit of the moving parts here, and when can we expect to see levels of above 6% that we saw last year? Then, on the mail and service, recurring EBIT did perform very well this quarter.

I just wanted to know if you could share a bit if the good performance was more driven from financial services or from mail. I know you don't provide the breakdown, but just talk a bit on the mail part of the business, if that was all from the efficiencies and if we can expect similar performance going forward.

Thank you.

Guy Pacheco

Thank you, Joaquín. On CEP, we are seeing basically two two variables at play.

We resumed the most of the normality on the operations in all what affected our first quarter, on that regard things are going well. We have the fuel inflation that we disclose that impacted €2.4 million the CEP business this quarter, with some offset on revenues, but still weighing on margins.

We have changing on mix, the change from non-European players to Iberian and European players is driving a change in terms of the size of the parcel, they are heavier, and the incremental margin on every parcel is not the same as a very light package, and there is some impact of that change of mix. With continuous gain of scale, and with inflation on fuel hopefully subsiding, we see normalizations on that part of the business.

Then, the customs business, as has a very high incremental margin, and that plays a role on the overall e-commerce solutions, but we are expecting some normalization of that as volumes continue normalizes as well. In terms of mail, three, as I mentioned before, three moving parts, all performing well.

Financial services obviously a key driver, because high incremental margins, as you know. Business solutions, all the new revenue plays as also that includes BPO, call centers, and also the social services, as Joana mentioned, that we provide in our retail, R&P, are performing well and also contributing in margin, this has higher margins than the average mail margin.

We saw some resilience on the revenue on the mail side that, coupled with the efficiency measures, also well, provide some incremental margin there. Going forward, we see the first two continuing to accrete to our EBIT, and we see some stabilization on the pure mail EBIT as we continue to see this positive trends on the price per unit, and also more efficiency that we continue to implement.

Nuno Vieira

Thank you, Joaquín. Our next question comes from Henk Slotboom.

Henk, you have been allowed to talk. Please unmute yourself and ask your question.

Okay. With Henk having some difficulties, our next question comes from António Seladas.

António, you have been allowed to talk. Please unmute yourself and ask your question.

António Seladas

Hello, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.

I have two. First one is related with the bank.

Non-performing loans remain pretty high. The ratio is now stable, but even so it's high, and in absolute terms figures continue to increase.

I'm surprised because, well, the economic environment is quite good, I'm surprised that this ratio remains so high, clearly above the industry or at least above trends. I also am surprised because you are not selling any non-performing loans, this is my first question, if you can provide more insights on this.

The second question is related with your consistency between CEP volumes for the second half of year and your Cacesa target for the second half. I know that well, the trends are similar, but of course the business are not exactly the same.

Nevertheless, it seems that you are optimistic for Cacesa. I know that seasonality should help.

At the same time, you are cautious on CEP volumes for the second half of the year. My question is, if you reach CEP volumes target for the second half, you believe that you also reach Cacesa target?

Thank you very much.

Guy Pacheco

Thank you, António. On the bank, I would say that the dimension of the ratio is what you rightly pointed out, that contrary what the industry normally does, they routinely sell these kind of portfolios.

The bank is moving in that direction, we'll be more and more doing these operations, but continues to be sporadic and impacting the quarter where we made that movement. Actually, last year on the second quarter we made one, and that's why you see some impacts on the other revenue line.

This year we'll do another, but more towards the second half of the year, and this will become a routine, and that ratio will be actively managed by doing so. In terms of the expectations of Cacesa and in terms of CEP volumes, I wouldn't say that we are more optimistic on Cacesa versus what we are in CEP.

We actually see in a steady state, some correlation between the two dynamics, that is pretty obvious the reason why. What we have is a very depressed starting point on Cacesa, because I would say most of the impacts were front-loaded and as such anticipated.

The CEP business also has other kind of growth areas like the European, the customs because it's only for out-of-Europe volumes doesn't have that other balance to offset the declines. We are seeing normalization on Cacesa, although highlighting that we see risk because the visibility remains low.

On parcels, we see strong growth on the European legs. We see reduction of growth and some declines on the Chinese customers, but overall with growth that, as the Chinese resume a normal behavior, will translate to normalization of the growth path that we have shown on the last couple of quarters.

Is to be expected some volatility on the coming quarters.

João Sousa

Thank you, Guy. The Chinese e-commerce platforms already showed in the past, when they solved the problems, they come very strong.

The question here is how much time they needed to solve the process that they are designing. That's where comes this window that we are putting here.

We expect when they solve this problem they come very strong. They can be investing again in marketing and comes the volumes.

The question here is what time they needed to solve this problems they are solving right now with this new regulation we are seeing in Europe.

António Seladas

Thank you very much.

Nuno Vieira

Thank you, António, for your question. Our final question comes from Henk Slotboom.

Henk, you have been allowed to talk. If you have a question, please unmute yourself and ask your question.

Henk Slotboom

Okay. Hopefully you can hear me now.

I have two questions. Thanks for taking my questions, by the way, and sorry for the technical hiccup.

The first one is on Cacesa. If I understood you correctly, there's been a move in volumes away from Madrid to, for example, Central and Eastern Europe and the Benelux countries.

You're trying to get the business back, and not only what you just referred to, the Chinese solving their own problems, but also by means of offering them fulfillment, if I understood that correctly. According to me, that's a line of business which is fairly new to CTT, and you're rather late entering this business as well, looking what's happening with CMA CGM with their CEVA unit, they've been acquiring.

We've seen bpost moving in with Radial, I even see Austrian Post acquiring fulfillment companies. Is it a business you can build up by yourself, or does it require acquisitions?

If so, how should we see that, because it's a very competitive market. The second question relates to the CEP business.

What proportion of your current parcel volumes is out of home versus to the door? Given the fact that you have a collaboration with DHL, and certainly also eyeing building up a position in Spain in parcels, what do you expect that to be in, let's say, 3 years down the road?

Do you have any official ambitions there? Those are my questions.

Guy Pacheco

Thank you, Henk. I'll start with the last one, that I think it's easier.

Right now, our out-of-home volumes in CEP are 16%, the rest are at-the-door distribution. We disclose some views on our last Capital Markets Day on where we see the market.

We see the market in 3 years between 20% to 30% distribution out of home, and that's why we keep investing in which is the largest network in Portugal, that is our Locky network, and it's why we are accelerating the deployment in Spain. We already have around 200 lockers, and we continue to grow and fast-forward that growth there in order to capture not only the opportunity, but also to hedge that market.

Or in Cacesa, you are right, because of supply chain reorganizations and because of relatively stricter customs rules in Madrid, we saw some reorganization on flows. We are seeing the market moving fast from what is B2C or H7 clearance to B2B clearance or bulk clearance with fulfillment within Europe.

We are well poised to gain share when that change happens. We already have a number of important clients doing B2B clearance throughout Europe, and we see as having a competitive advantage as the market reorganizes on that.

Coupled with that, we see fulfillment. We have fulfillment operations, okay?

They are not large, but we have fulfillment capabilities within CTT. What we are seeing is a play on these verticals, it's not pure fulfillment operations.

Is this integration between the clearance, the fulfillment, and also last mile, and that integrated play that enable us to differentiate in the market, but also to have synergies, operational synergies that obviously can help us to compete better on that space. We never shied away of saying that we are open to some M&A on the fulfillment front because of this, and that continues to be on the table if it makes sense.

We already have organic growth opportunities in Iberia on this type of services, as we see the market fast-tracking on shifting the way they are organized from B2C to B2B.

Henk Slotboom

Okay. That's very clear.

Thank you very much. Have a nice day.

Guy Pacheco

You too.

Nuno Vieira

Thank you very much. I'll turn again the floor over to Guy for his final remarks.

Guy?

Guy Pacheco

Thank you, Nuno. We will, as I said in the past, we will deliver future growth by building our strategic foundations.

The CTT core business is healthy. CEP growth was very strong on the second quarter.

Mail services delivered excellent profitability, and we also had a very strong cash generation. We see DHL JV also validating the strategic logic of building this stronger e-commerce platform.

At the same time, we are being very transparent on Cacesa and how we have this temporary volatility on the customs clearance, and this was the main pressure point of the quarter, where we took a number of concrete actions in order to protect profitability going forward. Looking ahead, we are guiding with discipline, and excluding non-CEP and e-commerce activities, we see a recurring EBIT of around €105 to €110 million for the full year, supported by this core business healthy performance.

We see with more caution with the customs part, an overall guidance between €115 to €125 million. We will keep investing in our growth, in optimizing our business portfolio, and remunerating our shareholders, while using our balance sheet flexibility as a strategic lever.

With that, I thank you all for being present, and I hope to see you again soon.

Nuno Vieira

Thank you all. We hope to see you again on the road as from September onwards.

Thank you for your participation. This earnings call is now concluded.

Thank you.