Mathias Nilsen Reierth
Good morning, everyone, and a warm welcome to all joining us today for our presentation of Thor Medical's results for the first half of 2026. My name is Mathias Nilsen Reierth, and with me today, I have my dear colleagues, Jesper Kurt, CEO, and Brede Ellingsæter, CFO and COO.
There will be time for some questions after this session. For those of you who are joining us online, please suggest please submit the questions now, and we will address a few of them before we open the floor for questions here in Oslo.
Before we start, also please note that this presentation contains forward-looking statements, and the full disclaimer can be found in the presentation material that we sent out earlier today. Brede will go through operations and key financials, but first, Jesper will take you through our latest progressions in the period.
Jesper?
Jasper Kurth
Thank you, Mathias, and a warm welcome also from my side. It's a true pleasure for me to stand here in front of you today and share the results of the first half of 2026.
I think many of you would agree with me that this half year has been a transformational half year for this company. What started out as a dream, as a concept that we piloted is now in industrial operation.
This is something that the team and personally myself am very proud of that we can stay today confirming the news, of course, that Alpha 1 is operational, that our technology has been validated and works, and that our Alpha 1 flagship site that is located in Herøya to our south of Oslo is up and running, producing patient doses, and have made first customer deliveries. This is also the front and center of our highlights.
Alpha 1 completed on time and on budget, and then subsequently to the reporting period, we have started production, and we have made the first delivery to a important customer. We have not been idling on the commercial side, either.
We talked about partnerships and attracting more customers, and we signed a important agreement with Eckert & Ziegler. We signed another agreement with Minerva, a Danish CDMO partner.
This actually moves us in the right direction, and we'll touch on this in this presentation in the next couple of minutes. Also, we have made very important milestone deliveries of lead-212 for preclinical use to Nodfarma, Minerva, and a couple of other customers.
Let's recap what we are here for. We're here to enable an industry to bring therapies to the market that actually make a difference for millions of patients worldwide.
That is actually what is fueling our spirit and what is actually driving us forward. We are in the market as an early player.
This is, of course, part of our story that we would like to build this market and take it over from the government players that currently supply these isotopes to the market. As they have enabled the clinical research, we are here to continue them and actually be the leading player in this field.
I think we are set it set up for this quite well. For you investors, we believe our model and our lean organization can provide very attractive margins in our products.
To recap, we are not a pharmaceutical company, and this is also another, I think, positive element that we're not exposed to the same cap requirements, and especially the same binary risk that you have with a clinical development pipeline. We enable, with our lead-212 platform, a range of companies, our customers and other companies at this point, to develop these drugs, to do discovery, and actually to bring these products to the market at one point, but then, of course, with a higher capacity than Alpha 1.
For those of you that are not familiar with what a targeted radiopharmaceutical is, a radioligand therapy, let's just recap real quick what this means. Cancer cells have different expressions of proteins on their surface.
You can actually target them with drugs. You can bring a cytotoxic drug like chemotherapy directly to the cancer and try influencing the tumor and killing the tumor.
What we work for is bringing radioactivity to the tumor, basically a radiation therapy from the inside out. Radiation has been very tried and tested in fighting cancer from the outside, external beam radiation, but what if you are able to bring this down to nano level and actually attach it to cancer cells, deploy the radiation directly where the cancer is, leaving the rest of the tissue intact, and with that have a very precise and systemic therapy?
That is what RLTs are. RLTs are in the market today.
They are beta-emitting drugs that are very successful, helping millions of patients today and are commercially very successful. What we talk about here today is alpha-emitting isotopes that we produce here in Herøya.
To give you an example how powerful these therapies are, let me talk to you about a patient in his mid-40s that actually is very sick. As you can see on the left, a picture with all these black dots in this PET/CT scan, you basically light up the tumor and the cancer cells and clusters of cancer cells with radioactive tracers.
You can see that this patient is not living a good life. I was fortunate enough to speak to the clinical team that actually deal dealt with this person just this year.
They told me when they had him on the PET/CT table to do the scan, he was in too much pain to actually lie still, they had to sedate him to take that picture that you can see here on the right side on the left side. Now, that patient was enrolled by his treating physician because he was at the end of all the the treatments off-label and on-label that this patient could could benefit from.
He was successful bringing him into this study at one of of one of our customers, and he received a radioligand therapy with lead-212. Just a couple of months later, after five cycles, you see the same patient without any visible cancer.
This is what the industry calls a complete response. I heard from the clinical team that he's playing golf tournaments today.
This is a life-changing difference that this drug makes. It's anecdotal, I know.
This is a clinical study. There are other cases where it's not responded that well.
Despite that, these cases actually give us a lot of energy in Thor Medical to press forward and actually make this happen because without us succeeding, these therapies don't have a pipeline a a supply chain to support it. We have to remind ourselves, while this is a anonymous picture of someone, it is someone in the middle of their life, mid-40s, a father, a husband, a son.
You cannot imagine, I cannot imagine, having luckily not been in that situation, what this change in treatment outcome means for the families of the patient. For that, this is our mission that we want to enable these therapies that are brilliant, and they can make a difference with our technology that we have invented in this company.
Let's leave the emotional aspects aside for a bit and talk about the market, which, of course, is also important as a for-profit organization. We still see a very good and confirmed picture compared to the last time we spoke about it.
The same data, the report is still current. We move into an area where we have this inflection point between the traditional share of the market, which is diagnostics.
Diagnostics is a very old market. Hospitals are used to nuclear medicine when it comes to diagnosing all sorts of diseases, mainly also cancer.
We see this inflection point where the therapeutic part will outgrow the diagnostic part in this decade. This is driven by RLTs.
The 3 billion you see here on the left side, it seems small compared to the 9, but it used to be 1 billion just a couple of years ago. It's actually moving in a very good way.
In general, the market is very active. Radiopharmaceuticals are a topic that a lot of clinicians talk about.
We see a lot of capital inflow into radiopharmaceuticals. In particular, I'm very excited about the lead-212 part.
Recently, AdvanCell raised $350 million on the back of their data, a very successful cap raise with a very attractive roster of investors. We see Orano Med positioning themselves for relaunching their Phase II trial with AlphaMedix.
Perspective Therapeutics, a very hot player in the field competing directly with Orano Med, have now received orphan drug designation in the EU. There's a lot of movement and momentum in the industry, but in particular with lead-212.
Let me share our view why we believe that is. We try to compare the different isotopes here.
You have to bear with me. This is a content-heavy slide, but I try to walk you through as as best as I can.
On the left side, you see the traditional isotope that is used in the two drugs that are currently marketed by Novartis, lutetium-177. It delivers its payload over 15 days, and it has in PSMA, that's prostate cancer, a 46% PSA50.
What does it mean? PSA50 is a bio indicator that actually highlights the amount of patients in the trial that have a 50% or more reduction of their PSA level, which is the biomarker for prostate cancer.
So, 46% of the patients treated with Pluvicto in that study showed that response. On the neuroendocrine tumor, these are tumors on the hormone cells, mainly in the gut, there is a 13% overall response rate, meaning 13% of the patient population in this study actually showed a response of the tumor.
This is not very high, but still a very important drug to treat these very dangerous neuroendocrine tumors. Now, you move into alpha, actinium, which is more advanced in the clinic.
Actinium-225 over 3 weeks, also long-lived like lutetium, half-life of 10 days. Basically, you inject it and then you have radiation in the body for 10 times the half-life.
Also clinically, you have to deal with human waste 10 times the half-life. It's a bit of a cumbersome process for everybody involved.
You get a lot of uptake when it comes to treating neuroendocrine tumors, 29% ORR, 1/3 almost of the patient population responds positively to the drug. This is a big difference to lutetium, and that's why these actinium drugs are very hot, especially in that indication.
On prostate cancer, we see 50% increase of PSA50, which is, of course, also positive compared to Pluvicto with lutetium-177. We are here to talk about lead-212.
This is what we produce, what we actually aim for, with precursors and the final isotope. It's a short-lived isotope, 10.6 hours, which makes it admittedly more bit more challenging to ship around the world.
The short half-life is not a bug, it's a feature, because safety is first and foremost the main objective that you want to achieve. Unlike the other studies and the other isotopes, we don't have a premature termination of patients in the trial because of adverse events.
This is basically true for actinium and for lutetium. It doesn't happen in lead-212.
You can see the PSA50 levels at 88% and 60% overall response rate compared to actinium of 29. More than doubling that amount.
These numbers speak for themselves. We believe lead-212 is the ideal isotope to treat the patient, and we trust, and we are convinced that our technology helps to build a global supply chain to bring lead-212 with 10.6 hours half-life to the patients in time to treat the cancer, and then decay into something stable, that you have the right combination of efficacy and safety, what you actually aim for in oncology at all times.
We can actually see that the industry agrees with our sentiment because a lot of early clinical development goes into lead-212. You, of course, can see that there are Phase III candidates even for actinium.
There is a lot of Phase I and Phase II, but especially in preclinical phase, where new drugs are developed and come into the field, they, for the most part, choose lead-212 because of these aspects that I that I mentioned. You can explain also, and I will not go into more molecular details here, but actinium, for instance, decays into more than one alpha emission, which makes it very hard to chelate, to actually link to the targeting vector.
You have a recoil effect with Newton's law, that the isotope that decays has a lot of energy also on the isotope it comes from. Basically, it breaks free and then you have radiation without a targeting vector in your body, and that can explain some of the side effects that actinium has.
We believe we're betting on the right horse. For, in terms of indications, you see these two drugs on the bottom of the page, Pluvicto, again, this is for prostate cancer, Lutathera, neuroendocrine tumors, and these are the indications that all the alpha players go for.
There is no surprise that we have most advanced activity in clinical development on prostate cancer and neuroendocrine tumors. For instance, ARTBio's drug or AdvanCell's drug in prostate cancer.
Way advanced. What I'm very excited about and, personally, I think this is a very good slide for for the sake of driving home a message, it is not a two-indication pathway into the future.
In emerging indications, this means early Phase I or also preclinical phase, we see a lot of heavy-hitter cancers that are targeted by our customers: skin cancer, ovarian cancer, we have colorectal cancer, we have small cell lung cancer, which is a very nasty cancer. Then in very early stages preclinically, we have exploratory diseases that are treated with lead-212 at least experimental in preclinic today, that is brain cancer, blastomas, which is very prominent also unfortunately in children, and pancreatic cancer.
I think this is common knowledge. Pancreatic cancer today is one of the worst cancers you can have in terms of growth and detection level.
Once detected, in many cases, it's too late. I'm I'm absolutely excited about the future of these therapies.
Of course, to grow the market, it is understandable that our customers move into these established indications where Novartis, a true marketing and sales powerhouse, have trailed have blazed in a trade nice trail for companies to show that they can substitute this with lead-212, or in some cases, actinium. When you talk about the battle of these isotopes, the market, as you have seen, is big enough for more than one.
I think there will be coexistence for a long period of time. That said, I think lead-212 will emerge as the leader of this because of the efficacy and safety profile.
When you look at the clinical development, for me, it's a bit surprising because I don't think lead-212 is available as such on the market outside of Northern Europe where we could actually ship to because you need to operate a a generator. Despite these hurdles in terms of technology, lead-212 has been very attractive for pharmaceutical companies and biotechs to do early clinical research with.
I think we we have to also reflect this when we talk about our way of going to the market and and running our business. For commercial development and also finance and everything operational, I would like to hand over to Brede, who can actually walk us through what we believe is the future of of this market.
Brede, thank you.
Brede Ellingsæter
Thanks, Jesper. Uh good morning, everyone.
It's uh so good to see so many familiar faces. It's a pleasure for me to take you through commercial, operational, and uh key uh financials for the period.
I would actually like to begin to talk about uh the the value chain and how we believe that the current constraint on availability of lead, despite the promising pipeline that is already there, is still hampering uh the development pipeline. Uh and then I will go into how we can play a role in that uh value chain.
First of the current situation is that any pharmaceutical companies uh in the clinic today, they have invested in a uh technology development and infrastructure to produce lead themselves based on sourcing thorium-228 from the DOE in the US, uh and now also from Thor Medical once we have Alpha 1 up and running. Then and that that creates a a huge capital uh requirement and a a long development track to get the lead into the clinic.
Uh so barrier to entry is very, very high. Uh we see that also in the interest that we have for preclinical grades of lead that uh it's not really available today.
Now, what we believe could be the future, uh and what we are working towards, is to have more of an integrated uh isotope supply from the manufacturer of the isotopes, not from the pharmaceutical side, where uh a player like Thor Medical could play a role by producing not only the thorium-228, but lead-212, uh and rather serving the pharmaceutical industry, uh taking down the barrier to entry and to have access to actually working with this isotope, um and also benefiting uh from the same infrastructure across several pharmaceutical companies. This is why uh we are also seeking to partner with CDMOs, that is called uh uh contract and uh development and manufacturing organization.
Typically, what they do is to to provide facilities for preclinical work, but also to to produce the actual drugs for the pharmaceutical companies. It's it's uh infrastructure and it's services.
What we bring is isotopes. Together, we can uh set up a a value chain where we are serving the pharmaceutical industry, uh both preclinically, which uh will be the initial starting point, but eventually also clinically and working towards a commercial structure.
One of the benefits for Thor Medical in such a setup is that we will also uh have access then to a customer portfolio of the CDMOs, which is already existing, uh a lot of big pharma, a lot of advanced companies, uh obviously of interest to to Thor Medical. This is why we have partnered uh with both Eckert & Ziegler and Minerva Imaging uh for supply of lead-212.
Eckert & Ziegler is a global leader within isotope solutions. They uh uh are also uh supplying uh equipment into the pharma radiopharmaceutical industry with sites all over the world, including Boston, which is uh what is uh on the picture here with Jesper and the CEO of Eckert & Ziegler, Harald Hasselmann, while Minerva is more of a Scandinavian uh specialized uh radiopharmaceutical CDMO, but fits very well with that uh Scandinavian footprint, as we are located also uh in Norway.
[clears throat] So, we are very excited about what these partnership can bring. Uh, and if I were to summarize how I see our current commercial uh position, it is that we have very good near to midterm visibility on on revenues, which is based on the supply agreements that we have for for the core product, which is still thorium-228, with a total uh uh sales agreements of NOK 850 million.
On top of that, we are uh partnering with CDMOs to supply the short-lived isotopes. This this capacity, this supply of isotopes, comes completely on top of what we are doing in the thorium-228 space.
Uh and that is also including uh in addition to to revenues, it's also to enable access to lead to to grow the overall market. Then at the same time, we continue to to increase our sales of uh preclinical grade of lead-212 and uh radium-224 from Alpha 1 directly, we are also doing that.
Now, moving on to an operational update, and I think it's worth uh taking the time to recap what it is that we actually do. Uh and we are producing high-purity radioisotopes from naturally occurring thorium.
We're doing that without the use of any radiation in the form of a nuclear reactor or uh accelerator, which is the conventional route to produce radioisotopes. It's a clean and green uh process where we're doing chemical separation uh based on chromatography.
If I take your attention to the right side of the slide, we are starting with thorium-232, which is what we call natural thorium. Uh it occurs in the ground, and we have established a a supply chain for that specifically.
From thorium-232, which has a half-life of 14 billion years, meaning that we can infinitely reuse the raw material, we are extracting radium-228, which naturally uh uh grows in to thorium. Radium is our uh intermediate product, also a half-life of about 6 years, which means that we can reuse whatever we extract in the first period in the next period, uh and and so on, over that yeah, more than a half-life.
Uh and milking the the sell the saleable products, thorium-228, but also further radium-224 and lead-212, um meaning that we are continuously then increasing production output, as I will also show on a on a later slide, um without changing the rate of the of how much raw material we are taking in. Based on the decay of this product, these products, we are actually able to, at some point, when the market is uh reaching a steady state in terms of growth, we do not need to add any more raw materials.
It's just about recycling. This is also why we call it Alpha Cycle, the production process.
As we said, it's self-scaling as long as we are taking in the same amount of raw material every year. Now, of course, I'm very, very happy to be here today to say that we have actually completed the site Alpha 1 uh on time, on budget, and we have actually started operations uh as planned.
I'm incredibly proud of the project team, but also the operational team who has uh taken this project through uh mechanical completion, commissioning that started earlier this year, and into operation during the summer. Uh and we've done so without any serious incidents when it comes to HSE.
That is a fantastic achievement, uh and it's a great foundation for us when we are looking ahead to see uh future growth plans and potential new projects, that we have this basis uh uh of execution in the company. Uh recapping quickly also the the ramp-up of Alpha 1.
We uh uh will produce both thorium-228, radium-224, lead-212 at an increasing level going forward, um based on the self-scaling production process. Uh, following this curve, we will reach about 21,000 patient doses after 3 years of uh operation, which is equivalent to about NOK 350 million in revenue potential.
Uh the production capacity continues to increase over the next decade, reaching eventually about 60,000 patient doses. Okay.
Then, I will also summarize um key financials for the period. The the highlights of this first half of 2026 is still that we continued with initial revenues from the pilot site selling lead-212 for preclinical use, uh at the same time, keeping a rather lean cost position uh while we were building Alpha 1 uh and preparing for startup by accumulating raw materials, which is uh in its pure form, a rather scarce material, uh and clearly very valuable.
Um we are coming into second half uh ready to to ramp. Revenues ended at uh NOK 900,000 uh for the period, EBITDA at negative 33 million, and profit for the period was negative 56.8 million, um while cash flow, negative 120 million, reflects the investment done at Alpha 1 in addition to the accumulation of raw materials, thorium-232, of more than 40 million at the end of June.
We closed the period with uh 59.9 million in in cash uh with unused committed credit facilities that is consisting of the Innovation Norway loan, as well as a working capital facility from DNB at uh 40 million. With that, I'd like to give the word back to Jesper to take us to the outlook.
Jasper Kurth
Thank you, Brede. Exciting times, and I would like to take a moment uh before I speak about uh the outlook and what we feel is ahead of us to uh have a little bit of a tangent internationally.
Some of you might know, I'm German, moved to Scandinavia uh 6 years ago, more than 6 years ago. I have learned and loved actually how sacrosanct summer is for for Scandinavians and how important is that we have a break.
You've seen that we have opened the plant in July, and we have uh completed everything before in terms of commissioning. The team, and not only the Thor Medical team, but the project team, our partners, have basically sacrificed their summer for the success that we can see.
I just wanted to highlight to everyone that is that is listening that none of us in the executive team take this for granted, or would have expected this from them. I'm absolutely humbled having worked with the team myself, serving coffee and trying to hold tools or whatever is in my competency level, but seeing this team actually work together and solving issues that necessarily come when you implement a technology that has not been implemented before globally.
That sacrifice I wanted to highlight uh to everybody listening, that this is something that we don't take for granted, and we're absolutely grateful for and appreciate it deeply. That said, um I would like to take you on a little thought experiment in terms of our market uptake.
Uh some of you know Pluvicto as the household name of one of the two drugs as uh radioligand therapies that are currently market. Sales last year were around 2 billion, uh steeply growing.
Uh Novartis has announced a patient patient population that is extended to also hormone-resistant, oh sorry, hormone-sensitive um prostate cancer patients. The revenue potential is 5 billion-plus peak sales.
We have customers, namely AdvanCell and ARTBio, that want to compete with this drug and believe that they can replace it. This was the promise on which AdvanCell raised $350 million.
If we follow the logic, we have asked ourselves what would this mean, a single drug on that level. How many patient doses would that be?
Remember, we have an output of 21,000 patient doses of Alpha 1 in uh 3 years. Uh the team actually came up with a cumulative uh patient dose of 1.6 million over the course of 10 years, and an average of 160,000 patient doses, basically beating the capacity of Alpha 1 by a factor of many.
Also, you have to factor in this is output capacity, and 1.6 million doses or 160,000 uh doses is the input capacity of the clinic that the patient actually need at the end of the needle, if you will. There is inefficiencies in there.
There are uh safety stocks, you have to produce way more. These safety stocks, of course, are also subject to uh degradation and radioactive decay.
Um this is why Novartis themselves today have built a 0.25 million patient doses capacity for this drug, which is their main drug, but, of course, also uh Lutathera and some upcoming drugs. We believe um the market will be big, and we believe the clinicians and treating physicians will see the beauty of lead-212 in the clinic, and then when it's approved, it will substitute to a large degree these marketed products because they're simply better in terms of efficacy and in terms of safety, as we discussed and compared.
Just to uh wrap up operationally, and then Brede touched on this, uh so we have this beautiful process that doesn't require raw materials at one point because we recycle everything that comes uh in our plant. Uh the flip side is it's a ramp.
We cannot just flick a switch like you would with a nuclear reactor. You build it for 10 years and then you's you basically switch it on and you produce at capacity.
This is not how it works. We have to really build.
We're build we are on a ramp, and we have uh low thousands of patient doses output as of today, which translates in low double-digit million NOK of sales this year. We basically gradually grow without adding investments to 350 million sales as we have guided uh after 3 years.
This means actually that our EBITDA also will flip from negative to positive next year. That's also very good to see that despite having small numbers at this point, we will see an EBITDA break-even quite soon.
I would like to also take a step back and look at the process once again because um I find it really beautiful, especially when you look at the masses involved in the process. The first separation step, thorium-232 to radium-228, some of you have seen these huge tanks that we have lifted into the basement of the building that actually touch the ceiling of the next uh story.
This is for thorium-232, because from 1 metric ton that we take in, we separate out 0.4 mg in radium-228. This is just the first separation step.
This process, as linear as it looks, we can actually take a part of it and make smart investments. When we build new capacity, I would not believe that we build an- another Alpha 1.
Uh we have 5,000 square meters in Alpha 1. We can maybe do upsizing of our uh capacity, separating thorium-232 to radium-228, and then take that small amount and ship it uh very um cost-friendly and very uh CO2-friendly around the world and have small labs where we have a hot cell line to produce from radium-228 down to radium-224, lead-212, and of course, thorium-228.
With that, of course, increase capacity with duel investments, and at the same time, also steer clear of geopolitical challenges. Let's put it this way.
Also we read the news. This is just food for thought.
These are the things that we discuss. I discuss very openly with the board of the company.
We are observing closely what the demand is today because we believe we need to anticipate what's coming tomorrow, not today. We we cannot wait until a drug is in the market, and then we can say, "Sorry, we cannot produce your isotope.
You have to go elsewhere," or, "You cannot launch the product." We need to give our customers confidence.
Another unfortunate example from the Nordics is um Novo Nordisk that actually had the golden stone, if you will, with their GLP-1 inhibitor, and they failed to build out capacity in time, and now they're taken over by Eli Lilly any day of the week. That is a fate that we would like to spare ourselves and spare our customers.
We actively think along those lines with our feet firmly on the ground, uh ramping up Alpha 1. This brings me to my last slide.
I hope over the last 35 minutes or so, we could present the company as what it is, a leading supplier of isotopes for a very important field in radiopharmaceuticals. We see 45 drugs currently in development.
This is a growing number, building customer base, more than 10 customers today with a technology that actually was invented somewhat years ago, more than 10, in this company that we have brought into pilot 2 years ago and have now validated. We establish this small Norwegian company as a global leader in supply.
While it is not a household name when you ask people in the supermarket here in Oslo, it is a household name in international conferences like SNMMI or the European counterpart that is hosted in Vienna this year. People recognize Brede or Mathias and they recognize the company, and they want to do business with us.
Our limitation, and Brede touched on that, is the half-life of lead-212 today. We need to think along the lines of how to make this more accessible and how to allow very brilliant and innovative companies to do research and development with lead to make that pie bigger and actually help more patients.
With that, I'd like to thank you for your attention to the presentation. I would hand over to Mathias to walk us through the Q&A session.
Thank you, Mathias.
Mathias Nilsen Reierth
Thank you, Jesper. I think we will start with some questions from the online audience.
First question is from Jørgen Busk. What are the next milestones we may monitor over the next 12 months to assess whether the ramp-up is progressing ahead of or behind the plan?
What level of demand in pharma would trigger a decision to expand capacity-wise?
Jasper Kurth
That's a very good question, and clearly something that is high up on our agenda. As I said before, and Brede as COO can chime in if necessary, we are on a ramp.
We start at a small scale. We have successfully completed the commissioning, and we are doing the the repetitive runs.
Of course, we we need to take into account that it's small volumes at this point. What we have said, double-digit, low double-digit volumes, basically guiding for this year.
This is something that we can be measured against if the ramp is successful or not. Far, I can say we we are ramping the plant successfully, but it's technology.
There are, of course, risks as always. We we need to deal with that as well.
Mathias Nilsen Reierth
Thank you. Next question is from Ivar Garnes.
Can you give a percentage breakdown of key OPEX cost elements for running Alpha 1: feedstock, material, power, maintenance, people, logistics, etc.?
Jasper Kurth
I think that's a question for you, Brede.
Brede Ellingsæter
Yeah. Uh we will not uh give uh specific details uh on that kind of level.
The main drivers are, of course, uh feedstock as a raw material, which we, as you could see in the presentation, we had already front-end loaded, we were ready to take us through the ramp now this fall. Uh beyond that, it's uh operational costs in terms of salary, but we are not expecting any massive increases in salary now.
We have built the organization already uh to be ready to start production. Uh beyond that, it's operational overheads related to lease contracts, etc., which is also already now visible in in the current report, I don't intend to go into any more details about that.
Mathias Nilsen Reierth
Next question is from Per Nilsen. Today, Thor Medical has a backlog of NOK 850 million.
Are there room for more orders with Alpha 1? If so, how much more can we produce and sell?
Jasper Kurth
You want to take it?
Brede Ellingsæter
Sure. Uh like I said, we have a very good visibility uh on revenues when it comes to sale of thorium-228 for the let's say short to medium term.
This uh relates into this fall and into next year. Um based on committed volumes, this is basically at very close to capacity of thorium-228.
That said, uh any sales of lead-212 and radium-224 uh is still possible to assume in this same period because that is products that comes on top. We can actually utilize the thorium that we've actually are going to sell, uh I'm talking about thorium-228, to produce the downstream isotopes.
Then we are able to ship both products uh without uh cannibalizing any capacity. If you look a bit further ahead, we have always had a clear strategy to firm up the order uh portfolio for the first period after, well, while we were building Alpha 1, but also taking it into operation, uh meaning that the committed capacity short term is is very close to capacity.
Thorium-228, I'm talking about. Looking a bit further, uh there's more opportunities to add more contracts.
That's this is also a conscious decision because there are still companies out there we have not partnered with yet, and we would like to stay relevant um also to them. Expect that we will we still expect that we will be able to sell everything that we can produce, but that we can make new contracts, that that is also uh something that we have considered.
Yeah.
Mathias Nilsen Reierth
Okay. Final question from the online audience, and I think you touched upon this, Jesper.
Is Alpha 2 a necessary step, or could you instead achieve global reach by supplying thorium-228 and and enabling smaller, distributed labs to produce Pb-212 on site, effectively going global through a decentralized network rather than building a second centralized facility?
Jasper Kurth
That must have been a very well-informed investor. [laughter] That's a good question.
I think you said I said it already. We believe it will not a be a monolithic Alpha 2 that sits somewhere, Norway.
We have capacity to do upstream in Herøya, and we are very grateful being being there. It makes a lot of sense to be in Norway.
I think I've said that before. When it comes to downstream, especially short-lived isotopes, it would be foolish not to consider going closer to patients where the majority of our patients are.
As a European, it bleeds my heart, but the truth of the matter is most of the clinical research is done in the US. US is the most attractive market, we have to we have to consider that.
Mathias Nilsen Reierth
Okay. Let's open the floor for questions from the audience here in Oslo.
Any questions? Yes.
Just excuse me, just going to give you the the mic.
Felix Heinrich
Thanks for the presentation. You mentioned integrated approach of lead-212 delivery.
Could you perhaps elaborate it a bit further? Does that mean that you potentially load the generator at Alpha 1, of course, with thorium-228 and ship it to Advancell in Australia, then in Australia, they will just add solvent on top of that generator, and at the bottom, lead-212 would come out?
Is that what you are presenting on the slide?
Jasper Kurth
That is one of many different models that are possible. You can talk about preloaded generators, you can talk about having a production system in a hot cell somewhere, and then supply thorium-228 as feedstock basically for that production system that sits either at a customer site or in CDMO or in a treatment center even.
It could be many different models that are perceivable. We are, of course, looking what is best for the company in terms of capital intensity, revenue potential, and all the other figures that we we need to look at when making decisions like that.
Felix Heinrich
Basically, that means vertical integration. You would like to capture higher share of the value chain.
Is that—
Jasper Kurth
You can think along those lines, yes.
Felix Heinrich
Could that potentially open doors for recurring revenue? If you're sending out preloaded generators, and if your in-house developed generator has higher durability than what's than generators that are commercially available, let's put it like that, right?
Then maybe that could, mean, okay, companies would subscribe to certain amount of radio- radioactivity of lead-212 per year. Then, you could play among those lines, supplying them with preloaded generators, getting those generators back, right, and then, uh—
Jasper Kurth
It's a good thought. I cannot comment completely on this, but I can say as an executive team, as CEO, our job is to make use of the assets that we have, and our main assets is the people and the knowledge that we have accumulated over the years, and the technology that we have.
I think if it's only deployed in Alpha 1, we're not making the best use of the technology for the sake of our investors and the patients out there.
Felix Heinrich
Thank you.
Mathias Nilsen Reierth
I think there were more questions behind you, Jesper. Thank you.
Georg Tigalonov-Bjerke
Thank you. George Becker from ABG Sundal Collier.
Previously, you have guided for turning cash flow break-even in 2027, which for Thor Medical indirectly means EBITDA positive as well, somewhat earlier in 2027. Now, you specifically state EBITDA positive during that in 2027.
The question is, do you still expect to turn cash flow break-even also in 2027?
Jasper Kurth
Yes. That's what we are expecting, yeah.
Mm.
Georg Tigalonov-Bjerke
Good to hear that. Secondly, you touch upon this also, Jesper.
The inefficiencies in the chain from supplier to drug producer, or patient even, they are evident. Maybe 50,000 doses demanded per year, but only 1,000 to 2,000 patients treated.
That's obviously positive for Thor Medical. How much of those inefficiencies do you see as structural, in other words, sticky, also, yeah, both I'd say mid to long-term?
Jasper Kurth
I think that's the golden question, George, because we we don't we simply don't know for that. It's not a global supply chain.
What we can observe is a clinical supply chain that is not commercial, which is highly inefficient. The amount of isotopes produced today are in the range of 50,000 to 60,000 patient doses for just a couple of maybe 100 patients.
This is highly inefficient. It will be much better when they move into Phase III and then commercial.
Right now, there are different competing models out there. Between centralized approach that you just preload enough lead to ship it basically across the US, or you have distribution hubs, and then you have to maintain a certain stock of raw materials of thorium in these distribution hubs.
This, of course, also impacts the efficiency of the supply chain. What we can say is today's highly inefficient.
It will be it will become much better than that, it has to, for the therapy to be reimbursable, but it will not be highly efficient. I can only go back to Novartis.
Lutetium is a product that is easier to be shipped than lead is, and they have built capacity today of 250,000 patient doses in the US to serve basically the patient population of peak sales and then some. This also has to be kept in mind.
It will not be a very efficient way of it will not be a very efficient supply chain.
Georg Tigalonov-Bjerke
Great. Thank you.
That's all for me.
Mathias Nilsen Reierth
Any other questions from the audience? Thank you for your questions and also thanks for joining, everyone joining us today.
Have a good weekend. Thanks for coming, everybody.
Already premium?