Royal Unibrew A/S

Royal Unibrew A/S

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 27, 2026

Lars Jensen

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Royal Unibrew's presentation of our annual report for 2025. My name is Lars Jensen.

I'm the CEO of Royal Unibrew, and I'm today joined by our CFO, Lars Vestergaard, and Flemming Nielsen, Investor Relations. We will take you through the highlights of the year, performance across our segments, the financial development, and our outlook for 2026.

After the presentation, we will open for questions. Now please turn to slide number 2.

Before we begin, please note the usual disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements and risk factors that may cause actual results to differ from expectations. With that, let's move to slide number 3 and the highlights of 2025.

On slide number 3 here, we summarize 2025 in a few key points. '25 was a year where disciplined execution really made the difference.

We delivered 5% revenue growth in line with our guidance of 5% to 6%, and EBIT increased by 12% at the top end of our 8% to 12% guidance range. Our EBIT margin expanded by 90 basis points to 14%, reflecting continued improvement in operational efficiency across the organization.

We also made good progress on our sustainability agenda during the year, both within our environmental and climate initiatives and within employee safety, which has been a key priority for us in 2025. At the same time, we continue to strengthen cash generation, and the balance sheet enabled shareholder returns, including share buybacks executed in '25 and a new program just launched and running until mid-August 2026.

Importantly, this performance was delivered in a market environment that remained characterized by cautious consumer sentiment and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. What makes the results particularly encouraging is that progress was broad-based across all segments and supported by stronger quality of revenue and continued operational efficiency.

Based on this solid foundation, we have provided guidance for 2026 of 6% to 10% organic EBIT growth, which we will come back to later in the presentation. Now please turn to slide number 4.

If we step back, our performance in '25 rests on two key pillars: category focus and operational efficiency. Over the past five years, our growth category framework has guided how we allocate capital, management attention, and commercial resources.

This focus has become increasingly important in a market environment characterized by soft consumer demands and changing consumer preferences. In 2025, approximately 60% of group net revenue was generated within our defined growth categories: no/low sugar CSD, enhanced beverages, RTD, and premium beverages.

This category exposure supported growth ahead of the market. During '25, we also sharpened revenue quality by exiting certain lower-margin activities.

While this reduces top line in isolation, it strengthens the group's earnings profile going forward. From '26, this step will reduce group revenue by around 3.5% with no EBIT impact and with no volume impact.

The revenue decline is predominantly related to snacks and will mainly affect the Northern European segment. Operational efficiency remains deeply embedded in our culture.

Across production, logistics, and back-office functions, we continue to optimize our footprint, simplify processes, and capture operating leverage. This is both in our established markets and in our newer markets.

The strong EBIT margin development in '25 demonstrates that this mindset is delivering results not only in our established markets, but also in the newer ones. Finally, our long-term ambitions remained unchanged.

We continue to target an organic EBIT growth of 6% to 8% per year, double-digits earnings per share growth, and continuous improvement in return on invested capital, which improved to 13% in '25. Please turn to slide 5.

Our growth category framework continues to guide our resource allocation. These are categories with stronger growth driven by changing consumer trends.

Today, around 60% of group net revenue sits in four growth categories, and we achieved average growth of 6% across the categories. No/low sugar carbonated soft drinks grew 9% in '25.

We continue to see strong growth as consumers prefer drinks with less calories or no calories. Growth is driven by both local brands like Faxe Kondi and our partner brands like Pepsi.

Enhanced beverages grew 5% in '25. The category includes energy drinks and beverages with added vitamins and similarly.

The growth is mainly driven by our local brands like Faxe Kondi Booster and Sourcy Vitaminwater in the Netherlands. Across markets, we continue to see strong demand for functional propositions.

Ready to drink with alcohol grew 1% in '25. The category includes ready-made cocktails and also ciders, in many different shapes and forms.

Our portfolio includes both partner brands and local strong propositions, including Original Long Drink in Finland, Shaker in Denmark, and Kula [Crayons?] in Norway.

Premium grew 4% in '25 and includes beer brands like Ceres in Italy and our premium beer portfolios across markets. The category also includes malt drinks and lemonades and other premium soft drinks.

The framework ensures that we concentrate investments where long-term demand trends are the strongest, and that discipline continues to pay off. Now please turn to slide number 6 and let's focus on the regional developments.

Northern Europe is our largest segment, accounting for around 2/3 of group net revenue and EBIT. In '25, we delivered a solid performance in what remains a relatively flat market environment.

Full-year revenue grew by 2%, while EBIT increased by 4%, and with the strongest momentum in the second half of the year. In Denmark, we gained value market share across most categories.

Faxe Kondi continued to outperform in no/low sugar soft drinks, Booster maintained strong momentum in energy, and Shaker delivered solid growth in ready to drink. In beer, both Royal and Heineken grew despite an overall declining beer market.

Finland remained impacted by cautious consumer behavior across both on- and off-trade. Even so, we maintained or slightly improved market position in key categories, including no/low soft drink, premium beverages, and enhanced beverages.

The acquisition of Minttu and other spirit brands also contributed positively in '25. In Norway, commercial momentum improved through the year, particularly the RTD and beer.

Also Faxe Kondi that has been launched in '25 is showing promising rates of sales out of the stores. We completed key integration milestones, and production has now been consolidated in Bergen, supporting long-term efficiency.

In the Baltics, the market was affected by relatively cold summer and an intense price environment. Despite this, we gained share in premium beer, energy drinks, and enhanced waters, while maintaining a strong cost discipline.

Overall, Northern Europe continues to demonstrate the strength of our multi-beverage model supported by strong execution from our local teams. Now please turn to slide number 7.

Western Europe was our strongest performing segment in '25. Revenue grew by 12% for the full year.

Belux contributed 9 percentage points to that growth, reflecting that it was not included in the comparable base for the first nine months. EBIT increased by 55% driven by operating leverage, efficiency initiatives, and strong profitability improvements in Italy and France.

In Italy, we continued to gain market share with Ceres and Faxe beer, and with Crodo in soft drinks. As previously communicated, we have reduced the private label production to prioritize our own brands.

This supported price mix, while higher local production also helped reduce logistic costs. Underlying growth of own brands was about 6% in volume terms.

In France, Lorina and Crazy Tiger delivered continued value share gains supported by focused brand activation and expansion into new consumption occasions. In the Netherlands, margin improved through price-pack and promotion optimization.

Despite exiting unprofitable promotions, we delivered net revenue growth for the year. With a strengthened sales organization and enhanced production capability, the business is well positioned for continued progress.

Finally, in Belux, execution is progressing in line with the plan, and we estimate that we increased value market share. As expected, Belux was loss-making in '25, but we remain confident that our strategic initiatives and strong local engagement will drive long-term value creation.

Western Europe illustrates the operating leverage in our multi-niche models when scale, mix, and discipline align. Please turn to slide number 8, and let's have a look at International, where growth accelerated strongly towards the end of the year.

Volume grew 33% organically in Q4 and 16% for the year. Net revenue increased by 15% in Q4 and 7% for the year.

Full-year volume growth was slightly ahead of sell-out as we build in-market inventory to support the higher growth. As a reminder, this business is inherited more volatile with quarterly volumes influenced by shipping timing and distributor inventory movements.

US tariff developments drove inventory build-up in late '24 for the first half of and for the first half of '25, followed by inventory reductions in the second half. Price and mix in '25 was negatively impacted by strong growth in beer in African markets, most notably in Q4.

Africa remains a structurally attractive growth region, but carries lower net revenue per hectoliter due to our distributor-based model. Net revenue in '25 was also impacted by unfavorable currency movements and tariffs.

Growth in '25 were driven by Faxe beer, soft drinks including Crodo, and the malt beverages with brands such as Vitamalt. For the full year, EBIT increased by 14% to 239 million with a 100 basis points margin expansion to 15.5%, which reflects a solid underlying performance.

EBIT declined in the second half driven by earnings phasing related to the tariff-driven inventory build-up earlier in the year and subsequently unwinding in the second half. With that, I will hand over to Lars for the financial review on slide number 9.

Lars Vestergaard

Thank you, Lars, and good morning to all. First, I will briefly walk you through the group P&L.

Net revenue increased by 6% in Q4 and by 5% for the full year. Growth accelerated into the fourth quarter, and importantly, Q4 was on a fully comparable basis with Belux also in the comparison number in '24.

Gross profit grew faster than revenue, up 9% in Q4 and 6% for the year. This reflects our continued focus on profitable growth, with mix improvements and efficiency delivering solid margin expansion.

Gross margin increased by 120 basis points in the quarter and by 50 basis points for the year. The cost base developed in a disciplined manner in '25.

Cost growth reflects the impact from Belux and recent acquisitions, while the underlying development demonstrates continued focus on efficiency and cost control. As we have seen during the year, efficiency have mainly been achieved within sales and distribution expenses, while we continue to invest in sales and marketing to support our growth ambitions.

We have seen clear benefits from our improved production footprint and initiatives to streamline logistics and distribution operations. Admin cost is increasing compared to '24, as we are investing in digital and have added Belux to our footprint.

The level in '25 is a good baseline for modeling. This needs to be looked at on an annual basis as there can be some quarterly differences.

EBIT increased by 9% in Q4 and by 12% for the full year. The EBIT margin expanded by 90 basis points to 14%, driven by operating leverage and ongoing optimization initiatives, with Western Europe contributing strongly, as discussed earlier.

Net financial expenses amounted to 254 for the full year, fully in line with expectations. Tax rate was 20.7%, impacted by the capitalization of tax loss carryforwards.

Our normalized underlying tax rate is 22%. Overall, this delivered a 25% increase in adjusted earnings per share in '25.

This excludes the impact from the sale of shareholdings in 2024. Now let's move to slide number 10 and look at the cash flow.

Let me start with a few key messages on cash flow and capital discipline. We delivered strong cash conversion in '25.

Financial gearing remains in line with our targets, and ROIC continues to improve. Cash flow from operating activities increased by 9% to 2.4 billion, driven by higher earnings and continued discipline in our net working capital management.

CapEx amounted to 1 billion, or 6.4% of net revenue. This was below our expected level, mainly reflecting the delay of certain investments into '26.

Free cash flow for the year was 1.4 billion. While this is broadly in line with last year, it is important to know that 2024 benefited from the proceeds of sale of shareholdings in Poland.

Adjusted for this, underlying free cash flow increased by 12% in '25. Net interest-bearing debt ended the year at 5.7 billion, with leverage at 2 times EBITDA, fully in line with our capital structure ambitions.

Finally, return on invested capital improved to 13- to 13%, supported by higher earnings and improved capital efficiency. As previously communicated, Norway and Belux remains on track to deliver around 10% cash ROIC by the end of 2026.

Overall, the number reflects strong cash generation, discipline in our capital allocations, and continued progress on return. Now please turn to slide number 11.

Our capital allocation priorities have been the same for a number of years. We want to maintain financial flexibility, gearing below 2.4 2.5, investment in organic growth with attractive returns, pursuing value-accretive acquisitions when relevant, and finally, return excess capital through dividends and share buyback.

This disciplined approach continues to support both growth and shareholder returns. The last couple of years, we have been running a CapEx program above normal level.

For '26, we expect CapEx around 7% of net revenue, and some delays into '27, as it looks at this point in time. In other words, the lower CapEx in '25 will impact '26 and '27: same projects, same costs, but a slightly different timing.

Proposed dividend per share is 16 kroner per share, and today we start a share buyback program of 400 million. This runs until mid-August, this is not a full-year number.

Please turn to slide number 12. Our growth and value creation formula is unchanged and straightforward.

We aim to deliver volume growth ahead of underlying markets, value growth through disciplined mix and price-pack management, continued operational efficiency and cost control, and disciplined capital allocation including M&A and share buybacks. Together, these drivers support our long-term organic EBIT growth targets of 6% to 8%, and 10% to 14% earnings per share growth.

Naturally, each year is different. The relative contribution from volume, value, and efficiencies will vary over time depending on market condition.

As always, the timing of M&A is inherently difficult to predict. Please turn to slide number 13.

If we should conclude on our performance on organic EBIT growth, then we have delivered solidly since 2022, the year where inflation impacted earnings. The drivers of high organic EBIT growth is, to a large extent, the growth framework that delivers volume growth.

The teams have also been good at value management and focusing on the parts of the portfolio with good margins. Finally, cost efficiency is a substantial contributor.

These numbers also reflect good progress in acquired companies. Our guidance suggests that our plans for 2026 are solid, and we continue the strong trend we have had in the recent couple of years.

ROIC is also on a positive trajectory, and as we expect this continue in the coming years as we harvest the benefits from acquisitions in the past years and solid organic growth in earnings. Please turn to slide number 14 and the 2026 outlook.

We continue to expect a challenging consumer environment across our markets, and our guidance reflects a cautious and disciplined approach. For 2026, we expect organic EBIT growth of 6% to 10%.

This is ahead of our long-term target of 6% to 8%, building on the strong margin and efficiency improvements delivered on in '25. We no longer guide on net revenue, but if you model net revenue for '26 to be broadly in line with 2025, then that would be a fair assumption.

This reflects continued underlying growth in our beverage business offset by the exit of lower-margin activities. As previously communicated, these exits are expected to reduce reported net revenue by around 3.5%, impacting mainly the Northern European segment, with no impact on volumes or expected EBIT.

Net financial expenses are expected to be around 250 million, excluding currency effects, and the effective tax rate is guided to be around 22%. CapEx is expected to be around 7% of net revenue, including repayments on leasing facilities.

We expect limited commodity inflation, which we plan to offset through efficiencies and improved net revenue per hectoliter. Profitability in 2026 may, as always, be influenced by changing consumer sentiment, channel mix, the competitive environment, and weather conditions during the peak season.

With that, I'll give you the word back, Lars.

Lars Jensen

Thank you, Lars. Let's move to slide number 15 for sustainability, which remains an integrated part of how we run the business.

It supports our efficiency, our resilience, and long-term value creation. On this slide, we have listed some of the most important targets.

We will not go into details with those now, but there's a comprehensive 70 pages in the full-year statement for the ones that are interested in the details. Now please turn to slide number 16.

Looking ahead to '26, our management agenda is clear and a continuation of '25. We continue executing on growth strategy across our markets.

Innovation remains a key priority as we expand and refresh our beverage portfolio to stay closely aligned with consumer trends. At the same time, we will maintain a strong focus on operational efficiency.

Sustainability remains firmly embedded in how we run the business, and we will continue to make progress on our agenda here. Finally, everything we do is geared towards delivering on our long-term financial targets.

The picture here shown, the Norwegian Uno-X Mobility cycling team, we just announced a partnership with, looking forward to see the effects for our Faxe Kondi hero brand on that one. Now please turn to the final slide, which is slide number 17, and let me wrap up with the key takeaways.

We delivered a solid financial performance in '25, fully in line with our guidance. Performance was strong across markets, supported by disciplined execution and continued growth in our priority categories.

Operational efficiency remains a key driver, and this is clearly reflected in the margin expansion we delivered during the year. At the same time, strong cash flow generation and a robust balance sheet gives us the flexibility to continue investing in the business and returning capital to shareholders at the same time.

Looking ahead, we expect organic EBIT growth of 6% to 10% in 2026, reflecting continued focus on profitable growth and efficiency in a still challenging environment. Thanks for your attention, and we are now ready to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. To ask a question, please press *11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

To withdraw your question, please press *1 and 1 again. We will now take the first question from the line of Aron Adamski from Goldman Sachs.

Please go ahead.

Aron Adamski

Thank you, and good morning, Lars, Lars, and Flemming. I have three questions.

First on Netherlands, can you give us an idea of where your EBIT margin stands right now? Is it still around high single digits?

Giving you're launching new pack formats there, can you give us some color on how the single-serve mix in that country compares to your other Pepsi businesses? My second question is on the efficiency agenda.

Could you give us some color on how much EBIT uplift do you expect the new warehouse in Denmark and the site closure in Norway to deliver within the guidance that you announced? Also, what other efficiency projects are on the agenda for this year, and how do you expect them to be phased?

Third, the last question on M&A, in light of the press headlines we've seen yesterday, can you please give us an update on what type of deals are on top of your M&A agenda? If you were to add a new country platform, what are you looking for in a potential asset?

Thank you.

Lars Jensen

If I start maybe with the last question, our M&A priorities have not changed at all. We would always, if you rank them in terms of optionality, profitability, likelihood of success, it's always the optimal to bolt on to what we already have.

We have previously highlighted a number of countries in that respect where the organization is ready, and where our market positions is not so big that it will be difficult for us to put anything on top. The priorities have not changed.

I would say just one thing, and that is that in this environment that we're seeing out there, and when the ones that there was rumored to be acquired by us, the BrewDog business, when assets like that or other assets locally come up for sale, that there's often, if you can move fast, there's often a relatively big upside to these type of businesses, assuming that you have an organization in place that can turn these businesses around. We have done it to a smaller extent with assets in our multi-beverage markets, we will continue to be scouting for those.

You have to be very opportunistic with that kind of M&A activity. If we move to Netherlands, I'm not going to give you a specific number on the margins, but the EBIT margin is moving upwards.

We have had a strong focus on moving in a direction where we become competitive. The efficiency levels in the acquired business was not at a level where we were competitive in the marketplace.

It's a bit of the same exercise as we went through in Finland more than 10 10 years ago, which was also the case when we bought that business, that we were not competitive in the market. We have put a big focus on the people agenda, on the efficiency agenda, and that is one of the reasons why that we are building the business.

Then the other one that we mentioned in the call is obviously our price-pack promotion architecture that we build into it. The first layer was to look at promotional activity and seeing what is value-adding, what is not value-adding, and then building the capabilities with, in particular, the new canning line so that we can move into the single-serve propositions as you mentioned.

We are, now you say, in Pepsi businesses, it's not just about Pepsi businesses, it's all the brands, including Pepsi. There's no doubt about that the Dutch business is under-indexing on single-serve pack formats, and that is one of the potential drivers for the next many years that we see.

The market is behind compared to the most developed markets in terms of the mix between small pack and big pack, and then we are even under-indexing on that one. That is a key pillar for the future.

Now, negotiations, some of them are already done, some of them are being close to being finalized and so on. For the Dutch business, I think we need to look at the numbers when we report on Q3 and is through the high season, then we know if our initiatives have really paid off.

Then I'll let you, Lars.

Lars Vestergaard

On the efficiency piece, the way we look at the market right now is that consumers and customers are looking for affordability, and we have been under pressure for a number of years. This means efficiency is super important across our business, and that is a theme that we have been running.

If you look at the guidance we have for '26, if you just look at our normal growth framework, then you would have a quarter coming from volumes, a quarter from value management effect, and then half of it coming from efficiencies. This year, we are expecting to deliver more than half from efficiency, it is a substantial number in our bridge that comes from efficiency this year.

Of course, it's early in the year, things can change, and we remain flexible to ensure that we will take the opportunities that presents itself. We are across the business looking very intensively into ways of working.

We have been trimming on people across the business. We have been looking at complexity.

How can we do things simpler? It's an awful lot of initiatives.

The two major projects you mention, site closure in Norway as well as investments into efficiency in the main site in Norway is a substantial contributor to the 10% cash ROIC in Norway. If you look at the warehouse in Denmark, this will have a substantial impact on EBITDA, as a lot of the costs that we used to use on external warehousing and logistics costs from our site in Faxe to other sites, that converts into depreciation.

It has a very attractive impact on EBITDA and a very nice impact on EBIT as well, it is a substantial contributor. We don't want to give you the numbers, but I would say in terms of the warehousing, it's also a way to make certain that we are in control of the business, because with the growth that we have seen in volumes coming out of the Faxe site over recent years, you cannot be in control if you have products standing all over the country.

This is a way to really get our hands around the business and getting control with an extremely streamlined logistics set-up in Denmark.

Aron Adamski

That's very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of, one moment, please, Thomas Lind Petersen from Nordea.

Please go ahead.

Thomas Lind Petersen

Hi. Good morning, Lars, Lars, Flemming.

Also three questions from my side. The first one is regarding your EBIT guidance 6% to 10%, and then maybe just following up on the previous question, I guess.

Could you help us with a bit of the growth driver elements in that 6% to 10%? You're saying a lot about efficiency here, Lars, but where specifically is it freight costs from Italy?

Is it Benelux, Norway? If you could help us quantify some of that, that would be great.

Then a question regarding consumer sentiment in I guess the Nordics is probably the most relevant. Just your expectations here.

You're still saying a challenging consumer sentiment, but we are getting tax cuts in some countries and various stimuli from governments. Just wondering here if you don't see anything that could sort of at least help a bit with the consumer sentiment at least in the Nordics.

Then the final question would be regarding your EBIT margin. I think if everything pans out as you now guide for, 6% to 10% EBIT growth and then basically no top-line growth, then we are getting close to an EBIT margin around 15%.

I think I remember you mentioning that you have previously worked internally with a 15% EBIT margin as a target. Just wondering where we could go from here.

I know you obviously previously had a 20% to 21% long-term EBIT margin, and we will probably not go there, at least in the short term, but just try and help us a bit how far can we go. Is 18% or 17%, is that realistic in a long-term scenario?

Thank you.

Lars Jensen

Thank you, Thomas. The sound was a little bit bad, I hope we got all the details of your questions.

When we look at the consumer sentiment, I think it's generally consumers are a bit reluctant still to go out and spend a lot of money, and that's the same scenario as we have seen for a number of years. That said, there's a number of categories where the consumers are actually willing to pay, you're saying, extra money, because that they see that they get an added benefit to what they buy.

That may be a perceived value, or it's a real value, and that goes straight along with our growth category framework. If you look at a category like energy drinks, consumers are less price sensitive than they are in a category like carbonated soft drinks or mainstream beer.

When we're talking about this, it's as an overall assumption, because that is what we see in the marketplace. There's ways around how to play this in the market, both by category, but also by price-pack and promotion.

In the environment that we have today, we try to cater for that in many different aspects, and that's the reason why that you will also see that our bottom line is increasing a bit more than our top line. That is the whole smart thinking, and on top of that, of course, the efficiencies.

That's the environment that we see. People are saving more money than spending more money.

It's not a catastrophe, but it is a different toolbox that we need to use. Stimuli or not, it's not something that we see immediately convert into a different consumer behavior.

Then on the EBIT margin, before I hand over to Lars, what we have said is that we believe that with the current make-up of our business, with the mix of the segments, that we will be able to take to mid-single teens in terms of EBIT margins. It's always a balance between absolute earnings growth and EBIT growth from a margin point of view, and so it's difficult to give you a clear answer to that.

This is actually not how we manage the business. That is not towards a specific target.

We manage the business towards the growth rates of the EBIT bottom line, and at the same time as we do that, we want to make sure that the quality of our earnings is intact or is improved. That's the way that we operate, we do not have an internal or have had an internal target of hitting 15%.

Lars Vestergaard

I would say in terms of efficiency and where it comes from, it actually starts in a slightly different place, and as Lars mentioned, quality of earnings and how we run the business is where it starts. We have a number of people, we have a number of assets, and we really want to make certain that people spend their time on something that generates profit.

In terms of the revenue lines, we're not guiding on it, and revenue is not the key driver for us. It is really how can we make certain that the time and the assets we have are utilized in the most effective way to drive organic EBIT growth, and make certain that we don't over-invest so that we make certain that if you have low-margin business that requires CapEx, that we really put very low down on the priority list.

In terms of the theme that we are running, it is really to make certain that we have clear priorities everywhere in the business about initiatives that you spend time on, that they are generating high-margin business. We exit promotional activities with no value, and that, of course, have an effect on the whole cost line.

If you don't spend your time on low-margin business, then you can be more efficient in your salary lines, and the assets are used in a better way, and that will give us a higher EBIT. Return on capital employed.

It's not what you can say EBIT margin is not our ultimate target. If we can make a lot more money by compromising EBIT margin a little bit and not investing too much, we will do that.

The ultimate target is that we have a high return on capital employed and solid cash conversion.

Thomas Lind Petersen

Thank you. Very clear.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Matthew Ford from BNP.

Please go ahead. Good

Matthew Ford

morning, all. Thanks for questions.

I've got two two questions. The first one's just on sales.

Obviously, you just touched on it, and clearly the sales guidance for the year is a bit more informal than in previous years. If we think about the sort of flat revenue progression in '26, obviously you have the impact from the exit of the snacks business.

Underlying, it's sort of 3.5% growth. That implies a bit of a step-up versus the momentum we've seen in 2025.

It'd be interesting just to get your sense of where across the business would you expect that to be driven from? Are there any areas of the business, markets, or categories where you would expect a sort of sequential improvement for any reason in '26 to hit that sort of underlying number?

Then the follow-up is just on pricing specifically, obviously embedded within your top-line growth. Great to get a sense of your expectations for pricing for 2026 and anything we should be thinking about in terms of the contribution there.

Thank you.

Lars Jensen

On the net revenue side of things, I think if you look at the quarter, we are organically delivering 3.7% organic net revenue growth, we are flying faster out of the year than the start of the year. Remember that Belux now is fully comparable when it comes to Q4.

With the guidance of around where we ended the year for '25 is actually a continuation of the flight attitude that we have established going out of the year. We don't see the discrepancy that you're alluding to here.

With a mix of markets and what we have also said during the call, we have a strong underlying momentum in the business in International. We have it in Italy.

We are growing beyond the market in France. We are seeing top-line growth is strengthened in the Dutch operation during the second half of the year as our changed, I would say, strategic focus is paying its way.

Norway is back to growth since June. We are gaining share.

We're winning in important categories, and we have launched soft drinks into that market as well. Then you have the old markets, to speak, the big markets, and that's as Lars was saying, that's a choice.

We are in those markets, we are around 30% market share by value in those markets. We are big enough, of course we want to gain more volume, but if it's a better choice not to push too hard on volume and get more from a price-pack promotion architecture optimization, then that's the choice.

That brings me into your second questions around pricing, which I'm not going to give you any details to that, but I think it's fair to say that when you look at the total market for beverages, there has been a period of time, in particular in alcohol, where prices have probably, I would say, gone too high, and where consumers tend to see that it is becoming more and more expensive, and affordability is an element that needs to be thought about. Whereas when it comes to the soft drink side of things and the growth categories with enhanced, they would drive the mix in a higher position of net revenue per hectoliter, and then you have a lot of market mix that you need to put on top of that.

When we look at it, we are not in a super inflationary period. We see consumers that are reluctant to spend and have been that for quite some time, and is hunting more for offers.

Then it's in that environment that we will do our best efforts to try to massage the average up, and that can be done by smart price increases, changes of price-pack and promotion, and we have all in play, and in particular in the multi-beverage markets.

Matthew Ford

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Richard Withagen from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Please go ahead.

Richard Withagen

Good morning, Lars, Lars, and Flemming. First question on Finland.

Maybe you probably assume that that will continue to be a challenging market in 2026. Are you changing anything in terms of commercial tactics in Finland in 2026?

Maybe you can also give some sense of how the sugar tax or the change in the sugar tax will impact your business in Finland in 2026. Then the second question is on a bit longer term, but you obviously have the medium-term 6% to 8% EBIT growth objective, and Lars Vestergaard already talked about some of the M&A that contributed to growth in the last few years.

What are the opportunities you are looking at to at least deliver on the higher end of this 6% to 8% range in the next, say, 3 to 5 years?

Lars Jensen

Good. If I take Finland first, commercial tactics, we're always massaging and changing our commercial tactics as we go along.

We are not changing anything, I would say, significantly compared to what we have done in the second half of '26, so that's a lot along the same lines. I think the biggest thing that we see is in the alcohol space, where first, that's more one and a half year ago, we saw the change in legislation.

We saw these fermented beverages with less than 8% alcohol or 8% alcohol coming into the retailers. They took a fair chunk of the market.

That is now turning, I would say, back again, growth have gone out, shelf space is shrinking, and that shelf space is moving more into the hard seltzers and alike, cocktails and with less calories and slightly less alcohol. In that category, we have done a magnificent job, I would say, over the last 6 to 9 months after one of our competitors came in with a sharp price point and moved the market.

We are now close to being market leader in that category, a magnificent job done by the Finnish organization. This is where we see the biggest change, I would say.

Then, in general, we still see on-trade in Finland being on the soft side. Affordability in on-trade is an issue, this is also where we are working on how to, together with the outlet owners, on how to increase traffic, and when consumers have entered the bar, the restaurant, that they stay for longer.

We are working on various initiatives to help our customers in that. Then, I would say, finally on the sugar tax, if you look at our non-alc portfolio, it is skewed much more towards no/low than the general market.

If anything, it is going to be an advantage for us, but too early to do any conclusions on that as it is fairly early. Yeah.

On the 6% to 8%—

Lars Vestergaard

The 6% to 8%, I think the recipe is pretty clear. It is make certain that we continue to focus on the growth framework as Lars explained.

This is a key driver across all our business, that is to make certain that we move our business more towards categories that are in growth. They typically also have better margin dynamics than the ones that are in decline.

An awful lot of work, as Lars mentioned, on value management, make certain we focus on the SKUs that have higher margin, and we are very cognizant of how much deep promotional activity we participate in. Operating leverage is a key thing for us.

We are on top of the cost in all markets, and then we try to do a few structural projects again and again that takes structural cost out of our business. We've mentioned a few today with closing a brewery in Norway and optimizing our logistics footprint in Denmark, but we are building a pipeline of these things, and we need to execute of a few of these.

Then, of course, we have a strategy to bolt-on acquisitions. In the markets where we already have an operation, when we buy businesses, these normally generate not only in the first year, but also in the years following that, good opportunities to deliver EBIT margin, or EBIT growth.

Bolt-on acquisitions is a key enabler for continued high organic growth. This is the way we look at it, and I would say I think we have been given a gift from our predecessors who made certain that we had a portfolio that was skewed towards growing categories, and I think the work that has been done over the last years to really focus on that, that is a very, very strong enabler of our future growth.

Richard Withagen

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Nadine Sarwat from Bernstein.

Please go ahead.

Nadine Sarwat

Yes, thank you. Morning, everybody.

Just one question from me circling back on a topic that was discussed earlier is M&A. You spoke about having previously discussed countries that are attractive from your perspective to potentially enter.

Could you refresh our memories to your latest thinking on which of those markets are the most attractive, and then more specifically, how the UK might fit within that? Thank you.

Lars Jensen

On the M&A side, I would say, we have seen the Italian team, as an example, have done an excellent job on the Lurisia [Limon Soda?] acquisition.

We have changed totally the business from being a one-legged beer business to now have multiple legs. We acquired the brewery in San Giorgio that has been, also with help from group supply chain, have been totally transformed in a fairly short period of time, has taken over the production for the market, and is now a standalone operation.

If the right proposition would come or pass by in Italy, I think we will be very curious. We have an organization that can deal with it, and we have a strong trajectory that can support that.

Then bolt-ons, as I also talked about early on, those are highly valuable. We have seen recently the bolt-on of the spirits portfolio in Finland, and I think you can see on the inorganic numbers in Q4 how strong that proposition is building up.

It was an asset that was a part of a really worldwide international business where local brand was squeezed. By getting them into our portfolio, it really enhances the thinking around the brand, enhance the distribution, the quality of implementation, and so on, and it immediately delivers results.

Those type of acquisitions, we're, of course, super curious on. There's not a lot of them, but we're very curious on them.

Then there's a couple of other markets. Take the Dutch market as an example.

We have seen a build-up of profitability. We are seeing that the revenue generation is now going up.

We bought a business that literally was flat to declining, the turnaround is I wouldn't say almost completed, but at least the trajectory is totally different than what we acquired. At a certain moment of time, we believe that that business would potentially be ready to be a consolidator in the Dutch market, which is not a very consolidated market.

Depending on the maturity in the different markets, the performance in the market, the organizational stability, and in the market, we evaluate all the time what is doable. At the end of the day, it always relates to an active seller.

Are we super keen on moving into new markets as we speak? Only if it is something that can deliver a high return on invested capital fairly fast and with not too much risk.

That's the way that we look at it.

Nadine Sarwat

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question on the lines of Mitch Collett from Deutsche Bank.

Please go ahead.

Mitch Collett

Thanks. Good morning.

Lars, I think you talked about admin expenses stepping up for digital investments. Could you give some color on where those digital investments are being targeted?

I think you mentioned that there might be some phasing impacts of that admin step-up. Can you maybe talk about what those phasing impacts are and any other thoughts on how we should think about phasing across fiscal '26?

Thank you.

Lars Vestergaard

Actually when I talked about phasing, it was actually more a comment on the comparison quarter in '24, where admin expenses in Q4 was pretty low. If you look at admin's expenses across '25, they are, I would say, fairly stable and at a level that we believe is the level we look at going forward.

That is what you can say the level that we expect into the future. To drive efficiencies, digital investments is super keen, because that's really the place where you can drive a lot of efficiency.

We are looking at a number of tools that can help efficiency across the business, and that drives some IT costs, but also IT has been used to integrate some of the acquisitions we've had. Belux have been integrated in '25 into our SAP platform, and there was a number of projects in Norway and in Denmark that we have been executing.

We have been investing more into IT programs to deliver on the efficiency agenda. It's not something that's going to be a material step up from here, it's just to explain why the number is increasing slightly from '24 into '25.

'25 is a good baseline for modeling going forward.

Mitch Collett

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of André Thormann from Danske Bank.

Please go ahead.

André Thormann

Yes, good morning, and yeah, I just have two questions. First, maybe can you elaborate a bit on how this goal of reaching 10% cash ROIC in 2026 for both Belux and Norway will contribute to your EBIT growth in '26?

Maybe the second one on your long-term guidance of this 6% to 8%. Now you have delivered 10% in '25 on organic EBIT growth, and you can potentially deliver 10% in 2026.

Does this target seem maybe a bit conservative to you? That's my questions.

Lars Vestergaard

If we start with the long-term target, then we've been above for a couple of years. I would say it is the synergies from acquisitions that are starting to help us, we are getting good help from Norway, Sweden, and from the Netherlands on these numbers.

Then, of course, we have a few CapEx investments that are also helping into '26. On Norway and the Netherlands, the plans are very clear.

We have a lot of good initiatives in, and we can see the run rates are improving in both markets. We are on target to deliver 10% cash ROIC in both Belux as well as Norwegian plus the Swedish and parts of the Finnish assets.

Because when you look at the cash ROIC target for Norway, it includes the business in Sweden as well as a small piece in Finland from the Solera acquisition. All plans are clear, clear building blocks from that is already paying off in '25, and then in '26 there are a few big items that really moves the needle in both Norway and Netherlands.

André Thormann

Maybe just a follow-up on Belux. Do you still expect that will be positive EBIT in 2026?

Lars Jensen

With the initiatives that we are taking currently, we will be assuming not that it's going to be positive, but it's going to be quite neutral on EBIT level, so that's the core assumption for the year.

André Thormann

Thank you.

Operator

We will now take the next question from the line of Søren Samsøe from SEB. Please go ahead.

Søren Samsøe

Yes, morning. Just a follow-up on Norway and Holland.

If you could update us a bit on the commercial improvements you're seeing in Norway and Holland and how that's progressing, that's the first question. Then an update on the platform and also the cost base in those countries where you have done restructuring during second half.

Where does this leave you in terms of cost base and operational leverage going into 20 2026 if you see more volume growth in these markets? Thank you.

Lars Jensen

I wouldn't call it restructuring, Søren. That's a big word.

We are always adjusting our organizations as the market changes, and our performance is changing, and we see opportunities in the market, and we are massaging. In some areas, we're taking some admin people out, and then we're putting more people into the field.

We do that all the time, and that's also why we do not have anything that we call extraordinary costs, because what we do is ordinary course of business. It is changing the flight attitude.

Lars talked about efficiency initiatives, it is changing the flight attitude of the fixed cost in relation to net revenue, and thereby we create the operational leverage. We're well positioned, assuming that volume will grow a little bit, we're well positioned to take the benefits of that.

That goes across all countries. It's not just relating to the newer markets like Norway and Netherlands.

Yeah.

Søren Samsøe

It sounds like we could see some improved operational leverage there. Also just a second question on Italy where you've seen very good progress and also France, I guess, but Italy is, of course, a much bigger market.

The exit rates we're seeing there and flight attitude, as you call it, could that continue into '26 as you see it now?

Lars Jensen

When we look at the Italian business, we are growing both share and beyond the market in volumes, and it is about a 6% growth, which is not what you would see reported, because we have less private label. Now, private label over time is, of course, less and less of the totality.

We will still keep ourselves open-minded in terms of, I would say, sweating the assets, but so what we are exiting is the glass bottle private label, because Ceres is growing rapidly. In that respect, we're taking one in and one out, but with a much, much higher margin.

There is, of course, a limit on how much we can take out of private label, because then it's not there anymore. What is left now is what we would call strategic private label, because this is with customers where we also do business on our branded portfolio.

This is the status of the Italian business.

Søren Samsøe

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Andrea Pistacchi from Bank of America.

Please go ahead.

Andrea Pistacchi

Yes, morning. I have three probably quick questions.

The first one, going back now to Netherlands and Belgium, the improving top-line trajectory that you're starting to see, and the commercial initiatives there. Can you just highlight where your main wins are?

Then, over the medium term, as you do better revenue management there, you probably gain share, what sort of top-line growth would you expect from Benelux? Can it grow I don't know, 3%, 4% for you?

What do you have in mind? Second, probably very quick one, costs of exiting snacks, have there been any?

Have you booked anything in Q4 for this, and how much, please? The third one, in the last six months or so, you've alluded to a probably more difficult pricing environment in off-trade in Denmark mainly, and probably also Finland.

Just an update on that, and is this connected in any way, I think your price mix in Northern Europe was flattish or thereabouts in the quarter? There's clearly lots of mix effects in there, yes, but if you could comment a bit on pricing in those markets.

Thank you.

Lars Jensen

Second question first, exit costs of snacks, we have had none. That has been done in a very smooth way, both from us, PepsiCo, and the partner that has taken over.

Done for everybody. When it comes to pricing in general, I think what we see is again back to what I said earlier on, that in the more mainstream parts of the market, we do see from time to time, and it changes from market to market, some activities that is more volume-driven than value-driven.

What we, of course, do not have insight into from a competitive behavior point of view is, is this driven by the brand owners or the brand implementers, or is this driven by the trade that wants more traffic in the outlets? It's probably a combination, and when you look at the pricing in the fourth quarter, it has, from a consumer point of view, been more attractive, slightly deeper on promotional pricing than what we have seen.

Our average pricing for our main categories is not very different than it was a year ago, but where we see some of our competitors have been with average pricing out of the stores at a lower level upon their choices, or upon the stores' choices, we don't know. It's not something that is new.

It's something that happens occasionally in markets and in categories. Yeah.

Lars Vestergaard

Just on value management, I think one of the things that is a key tool in the Royal Unibrew toolbox is that we have very granular data on how much money we make on individual SKUs, on promotions, etc. I will say when we have acquired companies, one of the things we often do is to really make certain that we have that data available for the acquired companies, and really make certain that we move the focus towards the segments where we do make money.

That's the first step we do when we start to integrate acquisitions, and that is giving us some good wins in Benelux and Norway as we get more granular insights into where we make money. Then we have a team that takes best practices across the markets and work together with the local organizations to ensure that our price-pack architecture is strong in each market, and then we are very focused on the segments where there is money to be made, and we deprioritize the segments where profitability is low.

This is very much about the basic financial ways of working that you focus on where money is made. Of course, when you look at some of the markets and the market share gains we've had in some of the Nordics, we have seen reactions from competition in terms of price, because our market shares are growing very strongly over a number of years, in particular in Denmark and Finland, where we have been very successful.

Andrea Pistacchi

If I may, on my first question on Benelux, would you expect, as you do more the revenue management, as you've got everything in control now, would you expect the top-line trajectory to improve there, and what's the sort of growth ambition in these markets? Thank you.

Lars Jensen

I also said it a little bit earlier, Andrea. I think we're doing a lot of changes on price-pack.

That's predominantly in Holland. We are changing our promotional priorities, which we have seen the effect of positively in the second half of the year mostly.

The success of the new strategy, we'll have to rely on seeing what is happening over the summer in the conversion of selling less big pack sizes at low prices, converting into smaller and instant-size consumption occasions. We've had, I would say, a really strong reception by the trade, but of course the next layer is the consumers.

We'll have to be a little bit patient to conclude on that. Our overall idea about Belux and Holland, and for that matter Norway, is that the trajectory that we bought, which was more kind of flattish or even to declining businesses, is something that we can fix, will fix, some of it we have fixed, and thereby we should be able, with those relatively small market shares that we have in those markets, we should be able to outgrow the market.

That's what we want to achieve.

Andrea Pistacchi

That's helpful. Thank you.

Lars Jensen

With that, I would like to thank everybody for participation. As usual, you know where we are.

Give us a ring, write to us, and we will be available. Thanks a lot, and enjoy the day.