Ambea AB

Ambea AB

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 19, 2026

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ambea Interim Report Second Quarter 2026 Webcast and Conference Call.

At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be the question-and-answer session.

To ask a question during the session, you need to press *11 on your telephone keypad. You will hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.

To withdraw a question, please press *11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker today, Mark Jensen, CEO. Please go ahead.

Mark Jensen

Thank you so much, and welcome to Ambea's presentation of the second quarter 2026. I'm Mark Jensen, CEO, and with me today is Benno Eliasson, CFO.

We'll start with a brief group overview and our growth drivers, and then Benno will take you through the financials and business areas before we wrap up with concluding remarks and the Q&A. Ambea is the leading care provider in the Nordics, with operations across Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland.

We operate through strong local brands and business areas covering elderly care, social care, and staffing and competent solutions. To clarify the breath and scale of the group, we have redesigned this opening slide to provide a better context.

On the left side of the slide, we see the care segments our business areas serve and the respective segment share of the Ambea Group net sales. To the right, we see the actual rolling 12 net sales per business area, the corresponding share of group net sales, and rolling 12 EBITA margins.

In the last 12 months, we reached over 16.9 billion SEK in net sales and delivered an adjusted EBITA margin of 10.0% on group level. We continue to grow through both organic expansion and acquisitions in a resilient and risk-balanced business model with continued strong growth potential.

From here, let's go straight to the highlights of the second quarter. Quarter two was characterized by solid organic growth, opening of new care places within social care, and a new acquisition in Finland.

Net sales increased by 7%, mainly driven by organic growth. At group level, adjusted EBITA amounted to 397 million SEK, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 9%.

The improved result is driven by higher occupancy and operational improvements. Adjusted EPS grew by 88% and amounted to 2.13 SEK in the quarter.

The strong growth is primarily driven by higher earnings. At the end of the quarter, Ambea announced a recommended public offer to the shareholders of Humana, and linked to that, we initiate a program to repurchase own shares.

At the next slide, we will look at the development of our organic pipeline for new care places. Already during the first six months of 2026, we have signed agreements for new care places that exceed the entire year of 2025.

This is based on society's high need for more qualitative care places as the demand is rapidly increasing, not least within elderly care. Elderly care is also the area where we have the most new places in pipeline.

New nursing homes are always minimum 60 apartments of size. Within social care, a new care home is smaller, typically from 6 to 10 places.

We will continue to expand the pipeline in line with the needs of society and where municipalities welcome private operators in the welfare mix. Over time, we foresee the need for our contribution will increase.

Our pipeline ambition is to meet the 2025 full-year numbers for Vardaga also in 2026. We expect further increase in Altiden's elderly care pipeline in the second half of the year, and remaining business areas will also contribute positively year to go.

Approaching the Swedish elections in September, we trust that the new ruling coalitions will face the supply challenge with new ideas and a focus on care receivers and their relatives. We will constructively engage in dialogues to provide sustainable and qualitative care solutions as we have always done.

Turning the page, let's review the total organic pipeline. Organic growth is targeted to deliver approximately half of our growth target.

The increase in signed rental contracts we saw on the previous slide positively impact the total pipeline, which is now above 2,200 new care places to open between 2026 and 2030, an increase of more than 60% compared to same quarter last year and clearly industry leading. Fully ramped up and at 2026 prices, the expected total pipeline revenue will accumulate to approximately 2.7 billion Swedish kronor.

A ramp-up normally takes 12 to 24 months from opening date depending on size and type of care home as well as local demand. Looking 12 months ahead, we will open 480 new care places in the Nordics, which supports continued growth and improved economies of scale.

With mid-single-digit organic growth coming from pipeline expansion, it is important to maintain and develop our position as an employer of choice, why we will continue to invest in our workplaces, work environment, career opportunities, competence, and leadership development. We will now have a look at acquired growth.

Acquisitions are an important complement to organic growth, building to the overall 8% to 10% growth target, and we have maintained a high level of M&A activity in the quarter. During the quarter, Validia expanded and closed the third acquisition within child welfare services, adding 40 million SEK in annual net sales.

At the end of the quarter, we announced a recommended public offer to the shareholders in Humana, aiming to combine the companies. We continue to see an active pipeline across markets, and we remain selective, focusing on quality assets, strong operational fit, and value creation through integration.

Let's have a closer look at total revenue growth on the next slide. We have now cycled the acquisition of Validia in Finland, and total revenue growth have slowed for that reason.

Anyhow, the quarter showed good growth of 7.3%, driven primarily by a stable and industry-leading organic growth of 4.4%. This reflects the strength of our business model.

We grow by improved occupancy, expanding capacity in our existing operations, signing rental contracts for new care units, and by successfully integrating acquisitions. Overall, this creates a balanced and sustainable growth profile.

At the core of our model is quality and people, let's turn to that. During last quarter, we introduced a new group-wide quality management system in Vardaga and Nytida named MiraQ.

By bringing our quality processes and data into one common platform across business areas and geographies, we can identify improvement areas more quickly, share knowledge across the organization, and further strengthen our systematic quality management. The rollout will continue in our remaining business areas during the remaining part of the year.

In a highly labor-intensive business like ours, our employees are truly at the heart of everything we do. Our latest employee Net Promoter Score, which measures how likely colleagues are to recommend Ambea as an employer, remains consistently high.

This reflects the positive culture we are building together and strengthen the foundation of our employer brand. Diversity and inclusion are an integral part of our culture and long-term people strategy.

During the quarter, we participated in the European Diversity Month in May and continued our partnership with Stockholm Pride, reinforcing our commitment to creating an inclusive workplace where everyone is treated with respect and has equal opportunities. You can read more about our quality and sustainability work in the Quality Report.

Now I would like to hand over the presentation to Benno for our financial summary.

Benno Eliasson

Thank you, Mark. Net sales grew with almost 300 million or 7% in total, and all four countries contributed well.

Nytida and Vardaga grew respectively 4% and 6% from higher occupancy, and Stendi's 11% was this quarter helped by a strong Norwegian currency, but also higher occupancy within child welfare. Validia grew with 19%, primarily driven by the new business segment, child welfare, where they have made three acquisitions in the last three quarters.

Turning to the EBITA development, this slide shows how the different business areas have contributed to the adjusted EBITA of the group. We can see that also when it comes to EBITA growth, all four countries have contributed.

Nytida and Vardaga showed solid improvement in EBITA as well as EBITA margin, driven by good occupancy and high level of operational efficiency. Stendi improved to a more stable occupancy situation and improved operational efficiency, helped by a one-off this quarter of 8 million SEK.

Altiden showed a continued EBITA improvement for the 10th consecutive quarter and contributed with 12 million SEK in the EBITA improvement. Adjusted EBITA in total increased by 28% to 397 million SEK, and adjusted EBITA margin in the group was 9.0%, up from 7.6% last year.

Rolling 12 adjusted EBITA margin now reached 10% for the first time. Cash flow: operating cash flow in the Q2 was very strong.

This is both an effect of the strong profitability as well as a normal pattern after a softer quarter like we had in Q1, and demonstrates the the strong underlying cash generation that Ambea has. There are always some quarterly fluctuations in payments, but over time, we are delivering a solid cash conversion of around 95% year after year.

This slide shows the way from the EBITDA excluding IFRS 16 down to the free cash flow post-tax. Rolling 12 numbers are now at 929 million SEK, an increase as expected from last quarter by a bit more than 200 million SEK.

The increase in EBITDA and more normalized net working capital are the driving factors behind the positive development, and our solid cash generation gives us both flexibility and strength to continue investing in quality and growth. The next slide shows the utilization of the free cash flow.

You can see how we have used it. We generated 929 million SEK; 212 million was distributed to our shareholders as dividend, 187 million was spent on the four acquisitions, and 521 million was spent on the two share buyback programs.

Net debt have decreased by 87 million SEK. Even with this over 700 million delivered in different ways to our shareholders, we have reduced our leverage from 2.7 times EBITDA last year to 2.4 times at the end of this quarter.

This is well below our financial target of 3.25 times and give us good flexibility for the future. Then to the earnings per share: the strong development in sales and profitability together with the share buybacks we have conducted have delivered a strong growth in earnings per share over the last year.

In this quarter, the reported EPS grew from 1.13 SEK to 2.13 SEK or by 88% compared to the Q2 last year. The growth rate over the last year is very high.

The compound annual growth rate the last two years are 25% in reported EPS, and if we adjust the EPS for IFRS 16 and items related to acquisitions, the growth rate is at 23%. Then turning to the business areas, starting with Nytida: net sales increased by 4% in Nytida, driven both by acquisitions and ramp-up units.

EBITA rose by 17% to 148 million SEK compared to the 127 last year, thanks to continued good performance in previously completed acquisitions together with improved occupancy from ramp-up units and adjustments made in the service offering. We have continued to adapt our service offerings in favor of services with more expected higher demand as well as successfully adjusted the capacity.

This is the fourth consecutive quarter with higher margins compared to previous year, and the rolling 12 margin now increased to 13.2% from 12.0% one year ago. Then we turn to elderly care and Vardaga in Sweden.

Vardaga continues to deliver solid growth as net sales increased by 6%, but sales in own management continues to grow at a higher pace, this quarter by 10%, reaching 1 billion 27 million SEK, driven by new openings and good occupancy in the new one as well as the existing nursing homes. The nursing homes we opened in Q4 last year and Q1 this year are showing better than expected occupancy development.

Net sales in contract management decreased by 3% as we handed back two contracts that expired to the municipalities. We will exit contract with an annual turnover of 199 million SEK gradually within the next 12 months.

EBITA increased by 24% to 143 million SEK. The profitability development in mature units continues to be strong as we are running the units with historically high occupancy and thereby improved operational efficiency.

The negative effect in on margins that normally comes from newly established units was lower than expected. In total, EBITA margin increased by 1.4 percentage points to 9.9% in the quarter and to 10.0% rolling 12.

Then turn to Stendi and Norway. Stendi delivered a stronger quarter than last year.

Net sales increased by 11% in SEK and 5% in local currency. Occupancy for care services for adults was still slightly lower than last year, but more stable than in the last quarters, while our services for children and youth had higher occupancy than last year in this quarter.

The second quarter is the weakest quarter EBITA quarter from a seasonality point of view, since are most of the banking holidays in Norway in the quarter, and this drives higher staffing costs. EBITA amounted to 54 million SEK, and the EBITA margin was 5.9%, which was 25 million or 2.4 percentage points better than Q2 last year.

A more stable occupancy together with operational improvements following measures implemented to adjust operations improved the profitability. We were also helped by positive one-off effects of 8 million SEK.

We are strategically working towards units with higher capacity and better operational efficiency and are phasing out smaller units. We expect to see more effects of these various improvement measures in the second half of the year.

We are now at a rolling 12 EBITA margin of 7.4%, which is up from 6.8% last quarter, and we expect the margin to improve to improve further. Then turn to Finland and Validia.

For the first time, we now have a quarter to compare with in Finland. Validia showed continued solid performance together with the completion of the third acquisition in the new segment of child welfare.

The latest acquisition was closed the 1st of June. Net sales in the quarter amounted to 446 million SEK, which is a 20% increase from last year.

Of this growth, 15 percentage points was from the new segment within child welfare and 5 percentage points was from the other segments. EBITA reached 41 million SEK and increased from 39 million last year, and margin in the quarter reached 9.2%, and we are now at 10.5% margin on the rolling 12 basis.

The start-up of the new business segment and the integration of acquired businesses have affected the margin negatively short term. We expect the margin in new segments to gradually increase as we improve occupancy and implement our system and processes.

Over time, we expect the margin in child welfare to be in line with average margin in other segments in Finland. Validia acquired was acquired as a growth platform in Finland, and we will continue to create growth through new new establishments, bolt-on acquisitions, and continued development of the existing operations.

Now turn to Denmark. Altiden in Denmark once again delivered an overall very strong quarter with continued strong revenue growth, driven by higher occupancy across both elderly and social care.

Net sales increased by 7% in local currency; in SEK, net sales were up 6%. Net sales in own management increased by 12% in local currency; contract management decreased by 8% due to the termination of one social care contract last year.

The second quarter are, from a seasonality point of view, the weakest for the same reasons as explained in Norway, but the profitability improvement versus last year continues at a high pace. EBITA this quarter increased to 13 million SEK, corresponding to a margin of 3.7%, which is up from 0.3% last year.

The positive earnings development was driven by the higher occupancy in own management and by operational improvements. We now have 10 consecutive quarters with margin improvement in Denmark, and the rolling 12 margin has gone from -3.3% to +6.1% over this period.

Our extensive work on the new projects in Denmark resulted in signing rental agreement for another new nursing home with a total of 88 places, scheduled to open for care receivers in 2030. We have now three rental agreements signed this year, which demonstrate the improved market conditions in Denmark following the 2025 elderly care reform.

Additional capacity expansion is expected within own management, where our focus and future growth potential is in Denmark. Finally, Klara: Klara saw saw lower net sales due to the weaker demand across several of the services.

Net sales decreased by 11% to 93 million SEK. Historically, a strong supply of nurses in the labor market has led some customers to employ their own staff instead of purchasing external services from companies like Klara.

For Klara, we now, however, see signs that the negative revenue trend is starting to change, and and we expect better revenue development going forward as we now also are improving the mix towards services with higher demand. EBITA amounted to 8 million SEK, with a margin of 8.6% in the quarter and 10.5% on a rolling 12 basis.

The good margin level reflects the well-managed cost adjustments and continued focus on profitability, even if in a softer market environment. With that, back to you, Mark.

Mark Jensen

Thank you, Benno. Our financial targets remain as we drive profitable growth, strong margins, and disciplined leverage.

In line with our commitment, we continued to deliver on all three targets also in quarter two. The rolling 12 months growth rate is now at 13%, which is well above our growth target, thanks to the high pace in acquisitions and good organic growth.

Rolling 12 profitability landed at 10.0%, which is above the target of 9.5%. We will continue to invest in people, quality, and growth.

Our leverage is slightly down to a ratio of 2.4 times net debt to EBITDA, below our target of 3.25 times. We maintain our financial capacity to engage in the right acquisitions.

Before we open for questions, I would like to provide an outlook post-quarter two. Ambea is the only Nordic care provider with a new tailor-made group-wide quality management system.

We will continue the rollout of the new system to all business areas during the remaining part of the year. With MiraQ, we have further optimized and standardized our operational quality work, improved system performance and features, as well as data quality and access to predictive analysis and cross-country quality improvements.

For the remaining part of the year, we will see more bolt-on acquisitions in several business areas, supporting growth and value-adding capital allocation. Care needs are increasing, and we remain committed to sign rental agreements for more care homes, adding to the future organic growth, supporting the Nordic society.

Regarding the recommended public offer to the shareholders in Humana, the prospectus is scheduled to be published on August 24th, with the acceptance period expected to commence on August 25th. Over the next 5 years, we will employ 3,500 new care professionals to support the organic capacity expansion.

Being an employer of choice is important, and to maintain a strong employer brand, we will continue to invest in work environment, competence development, and local leadership. Once again, our teams in four countries across more than 1,000 care units have delivered qualitative care to 18,000 care receivers, all with a need for a good and independent life.

It is an important and rewarding contribution to people and society for which we are proud. Thanks to our employees, their high competence and attention to operational delivery, we also reach healthy financial results, which gives us the opportunity to do more of what we're here for, making the world a little better, one person at a time.

This concludes our presentation, and we will now open for questions.

Operator

Thank you, dear participants. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press *11 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced.

To withdraw a question, please press *11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.

This will take a few moments. Now we are going to take our first question.

The question comes from the line of Björn Olsson from SEB. Your line is open, please ask your question.

Björn Olsson

Good morning. First, a question on the pipeline.

One of your first slides, you illustrated the pipeline, and clearly Altiden is the main driver of the increase. What type of pace of additional contracts are you expecting to sign for H2?

How should we view the sort of the trajectory of growth here?

Mark Jensen

Thank you so much. We expect to sign contracts also in the second half of the year.

As I mentioned when we went through that slide, we are aiming for Vardaga to deliver in line with the full-year numbers for 2025. You can see we are not completely there yet, so that would mean a number of new contracts for Vardaga year to go.

We also expect to sign further contracts in Altiden Denmark in the second half of the year. Then we will see contributions also in Norway and Finland, but as the care homes there are in general smaller than the nursing homes we are signing in Vardaga and predominantly in Altiden, those additions from Norway and Finland will be more limited.

Björn Olsson

Thanks. You also started by mentioning the election coming up in Sweden in a few weeks.

You are in touch with several local politicians and municipalities. Have you any sense of any risks in conjunction with the election?

Because the national debate is probably more noise than actual impact for you, or how should we view this?

Mark Jensen

Yeah. Election year is always exciting as the various parties are launching their plans and ideas for the next 4-year period.

In Sweden, you have all the elections on the same day, both for municipalities, regions, and the national parliament on the same day, which is a little different from the other Nordic countries. That means that we will see changes in the ruling coalitions for the next 4 years.

Our customers are the municipalities, and we work with municipalities that are led both by left side of politics, right side of politics, and by coalitions in the middle. We have done that for many years over many elections, and we will continue to do that also after this election.

In general, we think it's good that the public debate on the future of the welfare society is taking place, and especially within the care sector as the needs are increasing significantly over the next two or three mandate periods for the politicians. It is very important that the society as such will accelerate the capacity expansion, especially within elderly care.

We believe we have an increasingly important role to play in this field, also in Sweden.

Björn Olsson

Makes sense. Just finally on the Humana acquisition, do you have any update on the progress of the acquisition, or have anything sort of changed in your view of the deal?

Mark Jensen

We are following a plan exactly as we communicated when we announced the public offer to the shareholders of Humana on the 29th of June. We plan to launch the prospectus on August 24th, as I said, next week, and everything is following plan as we have communicated earlier.

There's nothing else to communicate on that particular matter.

Björn Olsson

Thank you.

Mark Jensen

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you so much. Now we are going to take our next question.

The question comes from the line of Kristofer Liljeberg from DNB Carnegie. Your line is open, please ask your question.

Kristofer Liljeberg

Thank you. First one relates to the margin target and the fact that you now are trending above that.

What's your view on that? Second question, if you maybe could give a little bit more explanation for what appeared to be a very fast ramp-up in new elderly care units in Sweden.

Then my third and final question relates to Norway, and you mentioned the higher compensation. Was that just a pure mix effect or more of a general trend?

Thank you.

Mark Jensen

Yeah. The margin target, we are holding onto the 9.5% margin target, and we think it's also a wise thing to do in the light of potential acquisition of Humana and the offer to the shareholders of Humana as we communicated when we launched that in June.

Changing that now is not relevant, and it's also important for us to make sure that we have sufficient funds to invest in people, capacity expansion, competence development, local leadership, and quality overall. We are holding onto that as we are holding onto our other two financial targets.

In terms of the ramp-up pace for Swedish elderly care, Benno, will you comment that?

Benno Eliasson

Yeah. That's correct as you said, that we has very good ramp-up or very rapid occupancy improvement in more or less all of the new establishment.

It had been, you can say a little bit coincidence that a municipality closed one of their own nursing homes in one of the municipalities. In another municipality, they have actually just before we open also closed one of their own, and then we have a third municipality that was built up for a queue before we opened.

It's different from every new establishment, it is a bit different, but this time we have a really good pace in at least three of these five that are more or less already full.

Mark Jensen

Then the final question on Norway. We have not seen any changes in compensation as such.

In terms of occupancy in social care for adults, it has been more stable as Benno commented, which has been the issue in the previous quarters that we have had quite high frequency of move-outs and move-ins in different parts of the country, which makes it difficult for staffing efficiency. That has been more stable this quarter, that has helped us.

We have had also a higher occupancy level in child care in Norway, which is performing very strong again this quarter, which has helped us. Then we have implemented various operational improvements in the Norwegian business over the last quarters, which has proven to show results already now.

As we also said, we expect that we will continue to improve performance in Norway over the coming quarters.

Operator

Excuse me, Kristofer, any further questions?

Kristofer Liljeberg

No, sorry. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Now we are going to take our next question.

The next question comes from the line of Julia Angeli Strand from Handelsbanken. Your line is open, please ask your question.

Julia Angeli Strand

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I'll take them one by one.

I'll start with Stendi. Given the strong performance here, and given that you have communicated that H2 will be even better in terms of margins year-over-year, could you give some color on how much this quarterly performance have improved your H2 outlook?

Is it unchanged or has it improved?

Mark Jensen

It is basically unchanged, the outlook for the second half of the year. We have said that a margin level of 8% to 9% in Norway with the size of the business we have now is a good level.

We are not yet there. We are approaching of course the 8%, and the likelihood of getting into that range is higher now than it was last quarter from the strong quarter two performance.

Let's see where the year will take us. The outlook for the second half is unchanged, but still positive.

Julia Angeli Strand

Got it. Then on Validia, you mentioned some margin pressure and that H2 will be a year with high opening pace.

How should we think about the margin pressure when you have a lot of openings there during H2 as well?

Benno Eliasson

There is margin pressure, you can say, now a little bit from the newly established business area in child welfare. We said that 15 percentage point on the growth from last year is the new area, where the profitability now is lower, and also there are some transaction integration costs related with three acquisitions.

That will improve going forward gradually, we hope. Then in the second half, we are also opening two new units in the beginning of fourth quarter that will short term probably hurt the margins a little bit, as it always does when you open large unit with the full rental cost and gradually coming in occupancy.

That will probably affect Validia a little bit in the later part of the year.

Julia Angeli Strand

Okay. If we adjust for normal seasonality effects, will the margin pressure increase from this quarter or be the same?

Benno Eliasson

A bit hard to say. I think in the third quarter, the margin pressure from lower margins in child welfare will ease a little bit gradually, as we say.

Then, of course, depending on how fast we can ramp up the new unit in the fourth quarter, that could also, of course, as said, hurt the margin. How much is still to be seen because we don't know the occupancy development after the start of that unit.

Julia Angeli Strand

Okay. Then my last question on Humana.

They have some unit facing some challenges or has varying performance, and Norway being one of them. Given that you have experience from managing a somewhat challenged Norwegian business following a large acquisition, could you share some thoughts on how you plan to address it in terms of profitability and occupancy levels?

Mark Jensen

In general, we can say that what we said when we announced the offer to the shareholders of Humana still stands. On the presentation there on the 29th of June, we were talking about the strength of combining the two companies.

We think that is unchanged, and we have no other opinion than what we communicated on June 29th. In a process like this, which is quite complex and when there are certain steps to be taken in a specific order, we need to take it step by step, which we are doing and in that order.

We will come at a point in time, hopefully, to a place where we can get more insights on the business and we can start the integration planning and all that, but that's too early for now. We basically have no other view than the view we communicated on June 29th.

Julia Angeli Strand

Got it. Those were my questions.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Now we are going to take our next question.

The next question comes from the line of Jacob Andersson from Danske Bank. Your line is open, please ask your question.

Jacob Andersson

Good morning, Mark and Benno. I hope you can hear me.

I just had a couple of questions, starting off with Nytida. You continue to deliver strong margins once again, but was the improvement in occupancy broad-based across both disability as well as individual and family, or mainly driven by specific subsegment or...?

Benno Eliasson

The improving occupancy were rather broad. It's not a huge improvement from last year, but still some improvement from last year.

That is in all subsegments where we have more care receivers both in the disability care and the individual and family care. That is a rather broad-based occupancy improvement on a low, seen is single-digit numbers.

Jacob Andersson

Perfect. Just one on Stendi.

You mentioned a slight uptick in demand, but occupancy still lower year-over-year. Is the improvement in demand specifically within adult care or where you previously had seen challenges or somewhere else in Stendi?

Benno Eliasson

The occupancy was higher in child welfare in Norway this quarter compared to same quarter last year. In adult care, it was a little lower, but more stable.

That's the occupancy level in Norway. If that is the answer to your question, otherwise please repeat it.

Jacob Andersson

No, that was the answer. Then just a final one on Vardaga.

You said in Q1 that contracts with total revenues of 200 million SEK is set to end in the coming 12 months, but could you just clarify the underlying reason for why these contracts are ending? Is it your own decision not to renew because it's no longer attractive, or competition, or municipalities choosing to bring operations in-house,

Benno Eliasson

or...? These contracts' mandate run out in a certain point of time and then the municipality need to retender.

If they don't retender, they can also have the possibility to take them back to run them by themselves. I think it's seven or eight units or something.

I think more than half of them are units that the municipality decided when the contracts ended to take back home, to speak. A couple of them are that we have lost the retender to another operator.

I think in this case, it is all non-listed operator with lower prices than we offered. This is a combination of these two.

Jacob Andersson

Perfect. No more questions for me.

Operator

Thank you. Now we are going to take our next question.

The next question comes from the line of Philip Ekengren from Nordea. Your line is open, please ask your question.

Philip Ekengren

Yes, thank you, and good morning, all. Just going back to the election, I appreciate the comments that you made earlier, but have you noticed any changes in dialogues with the municipalities or regions over the past, let's say, year or two years?

Or have you seen a shift in the way that they have discussions with you, please?

Mark Jensen

It's difficult to say because we have several hundred municipalities that we have as our customers and partners. Of course there are changes from municipality to municipality and shifts now and then in different directions.

I would say over the last election term here, the last four years, it has been quite stable, no big surprises from what was said at the beginning and how they have decided to run the welfare services within the municipality's responsibility over the last four years. I won't say that.

If anything, we can hear from more municipalities that of course the needs are increasing. We can see it in the data also that the needs are increasing.

We also know it is increasingly difficult to get the permit to move in to a nursing home, as example, within elderly care. That the welfare services as such is more constrained from a municipal perspective because they're looking for new projects, they're looking for ways to handle the increased pressure from the demographics as the population is getting older.

If anything, that is more evident now than it was three or four years ago. We know of course that this will continue, and we are certain that with our solutions and our qualitative services that there will be a higher need to use us in the mix going forward.

Philip Ekengren

Thank you. That clarifies a bit.

Then just one final thing, going back to Stendi. You talk about some earlier occupancy down in adult.

What's constraining that? What's the problem there?

Mark Jensen

I think the economy situation of the municipalities in Norway, there are even more municipalities in Norway than in Sweden, and many of them are small. Their financial situation is increasingly constrained, which of course gives them headaches in terms of making sure that their budgets will meet the needs.

We can see some municipalities that have changed their purchasing behavior versus earlier. We are adapting to that, of course, and changing our offering.

We're focusing on units with high capacity to make sure that we can deliver high quality care at a price that the municipalities can afford. Some of these changes are giving impact in this quarter, and they will continue to give impact in the coming quarters.

Even in a rich country like Norway, municipalities are constrained financially, many are, and it's of course important that we can deliver high quality services at a price which is in line with both the needs of the care receiver, but of course also the financial situation of the municipalities.

Philip Ekengren

Perfect. Thank you very much.

I'll get back into the queue.

Operator

Thank you. Now we are going to take our next question.

The question comes from the line of Filip Wetterqvist from SB1 Markets. Your line is open, please ask your question.

Filip Wetterqvist

Good morning, guys. I have three questions, I'll take them one by one.

The first one, coming back to the contract terminations in Vardaga. Can you give us some color on the quarterly split?

When are we expected to see the contracts end? Are they front- or back-end loaded?

Some color on that would be helpful.

Mark Jensen

I don't have the exact date, but I know that it will be every quarter now the coming four quarters, some contract that will be handed back. I think it's rather evenly spread over the coming four quarters.

Filip Wetterqvist

All right, thank you. Then in Nytida, have you seen any shifts in the length of stay, and in child care do you see any changes in the average age of the children staying at your units?

Mark Jensen

Not particularly. In general, there's a tendency towards somewhat lower length of stay across social care services, but obviously that is very individual because that depends on the progression of each and every care receiver depending on the plan for that care receiver made by the municipalities' social workers, in collaboration with our teams, of course.

I would say no general trend in this quarter, but over time, we see shorter stays across social care services in general.

Filip Wetterqvist

You'd say that there's some risk of some lower occupancy going forward if we see a trend of... No,

Mark Jensen

I don't think it's that evident that it will impact and should be flagged as a risk for the coming quarters. That's not what we see.

Of course, you look at Nytida and Nytida services, the majority of the services are in disability care where the length of stay are often long, they can be lifelong. We are not as highly exposed to individual and family care as to disability care, and where you have the shorter length of stay is predominantly in individual and family care.

I will not flag it as a risk, and nothing that should be counted in on the negative side for the coming quarters.

Filip Wetterqvist

All right, perfect. Then a last question on the Humana acquisition.

Your guidance for about 120 million of synergies, which as I understand it mainly relates to overhead or group functions, do you see additional operational synergies within the business areas as well?

Mark Jensen

We have no other view than what we communicated on June 29th in regards to synergies. That's the 120 million that we communicated there and predominantly in group functions and group costs overall.

Then we also confirmed the financial targets on June 29th if the companies would be combined, meaning that the EBITA margin target that we have of 9.5%, we would hold onto that. We also said that we believe that we will be back at that level on a run-rate basis by the end of 2028.

That will of course includes some operational improvements to get there. That's just repeating what we communicated on June 29th.

Filip Wetterqvist

All right, perfect. Thank you.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press *11 on your telephone keypad.

Now we are going to take our next question. The question comes from the line of Julia Angeli Strand from Handelsbanken.

Your line is open, please ask your question.

Julia Angeli Strand

Hi, just a follow-up question on the bolt-on acquisitions you mentioned that we should anticipate in H2. Does this materially affect the indicative debt level that we received on when you announced the Humana acquisition?

Benno Eliasson

Sorry, repeat...

Mark Jensen

The bolt-on acquisitions, will they materially impact the debt level?

Benno Eliasson

No, it won't. With this cash generation that you saw with 900 million a year, we think that we still can have a lot of bolt-on acquisitions and dividend, and also room for share buybacks included in the cash flow that we are generating on a yearly basis.

Julia Angeli Strand

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Dear speakers, there are no further questions for today.

I would now like to hand the conference over to Mark Jensen for any closing remarks.

Mark Jensen

Thank you all for joining us today, and for your continued interest in Ambea. The report for the third quarter will be published on November 4th, 2026.

I wish you all a nice day, stay safe and healthy. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating.

You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.