doValue S.p.A.

doValue S.p.A.

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 27, 2026

Operator

Operator: Good morning. This is the chorus call conference operator.

Welcome and thank you for joining the doValue preliminary full year 2025 financial results presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode.

After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing * and 0 on their telephone.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Daniele Della Seta, Investor Relations.

Please go ahead, sir.

Daniele Della Seta

Good morning, everyone. I'm Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations at doValue.

I'm joined by Manuela Franchi, our Group CEO, and Davide Soffietti, our Group CFO, as we present our preliminary full year 2025 results. Manuela will begin with an overview of our performance, including key insights into market and business trends.

Next, Davide will provide a detailed analysis of our financial results for the period. We'll conclude with a Q&A session to address any questions you may have.

Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Manuela.

Manuela Franchi

Good morning, everyone. Let me start clearly and concisely: we delivered.

We met our 2025 business plan targets for both cash flow and EBITDA, our second consecutive year of delivery on the three-year business plan, and we reached several milestones even earlier than planned. We achieved this in a particularly challenging phase of our industry, while also executing two major M&A transactions that will reshape the future of our company.

Before walking you through the results, which together present a solid and consistent picture, I want to thank all the people at doValue. Their commitment and hard work have enabled us to accomplish what many in the market doubted would be possible.

Commercial momentum remains strong, with new business intake closing at roughly €15 billion, 1.8 times the annual business plan targets, and a pipeline that continues to support visibility into 2026. Profitability strengthened, with EBITDA ex-NRI reaching a record €217 million and margin at 37%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year.

The near completion of the Gardant integration is now contributing to improved efficiencies across the platform, setting the strong foundation for the next year. Cash generation was also very strong, with the free cash flow at €76 million, well above guidance.

This result supported both the deleveraging and the return to dividend payment in accordance with dividend policy. On a recurring basis, free cash flow was €93 million, bridging the gap towards the 2026 €90 million target.

Net leverage stood at 2x at year-end, fully in line with guidance, even after accounting for extraordinary payouts linked to the M&A activities, such as €6 million cash-out for Alba Leasing, which was not contemplated when the guidance was announced. As for Koleo, I know that, just like us, you are eager to see the performance reflected in our numbers.

The transaction is expected to close shortly, with no execution issues. Koleo delivered another year of strong double-digit organic growth, with files intake up 23% in '25, and well ahead of our buyer case, but also seller case.

Altogether, we enter '26 with a stronger business, a clearer trajectory, and the foundation to deliver our next set of targets, including Koleo. If you follow me on page 3, let me start from the bigger picture.

doValue today plays a system-level role in Europe's financial stability. We operate at a scale that very few players in Europe can match, managing over 4.3 million positions across individuals and businesses.

All of this before Koleo, which will more than double the number of data points with a broader scope. This gives us one of the largest behavioral and credit databases in the market, an asset that allow us to anticipate patterns, tailor strategies, and support the functioning of the financial system with evidence-based decision-making.

This is the context in which our portfolio proves sustainable across cycles. It is diversified by design and managed by specialized professionals operating in areas where AI alone is not enough.

First, diversification: our portfolio is no longer a single-asset NPL story. Alongside NPLs, we manage a large UTP perimeter, about 1 million positions, where we act as a structuring partner to protect value early, and we are developing a growing reperforming base, currently of 400,000 positions, that extracts value from proactive debt management.

Second, runaway and capacity: look at '25 impact indicators at the bottom. 38,000 positions recovered from individuals, 21,000 from businesses, 12,000 positions restructured, and 3,000 reperforming positions collected.

All these figures show a substantial annual throughput. When you set that against the overall stock of 4.3 million outstanding positions, it's clear there is ample, embedded opportunity in the existing book, a lot still to convert, which underpins visibility for the coming years.

Third, AI resilience: 88% of our portfolio is made up by loans above €50,000, typically complex, bespoke, and legal-intensive. Here, AI augments our execution capabilities, but outcomes are driven by highly specialized asset managers who cannot be replaced by AI-only models, also due to the proprietary nature of our dataset, which encompass decades of data and is not available to third-party models.

In short, our scale, our dataset, and the complexity we manage make doValue one of the few players that truly matter for Europe's financial stability, and they give us a long, predictable, and AI-resilient path of value creation. With that foundation, let me turn to the '25 new business inflow on page 4.

In '25, GBV from new business reached almost €15 billion, 1.8 times our initial business plan targets, confirming the strength of our commercial engine. New mandates continued to grow in the fourth quarter by nearly €1 billion, including around €600 million from Banca Progetto in Italy and €200 million from the new contribution fund launched in December by doValue through its asset management platform focused on state-guaranteed loans.

Spain also added €200 million in the quarter with mandates from a major banking institution. We also saw sustained forward flow from existing customers, which total €4.3 billion for the year, covering around 80% of collections.

This performance was mainly driven by solid contribution across countries, with continued acceleration in flows from Santander in Spain, up 60% year-on-year, which has been recently renewed for an additional year without any upfront payment. If we take a step back, the scale of what we have achieved over the past two years becomes even clearer.

While banks boast NPE ratios and cost of risk at historical lows, we secured €24 billion of cumulative new business, nearly €11 billion of which from banks. This is not just commercial success; it's a tangible demonstration of the systemic role of our industry in Europe's financial ecosystem.

Banks, funds, and institutions rely on our and our competitor platform through the cycle, and this is precisely what underpins the long-term sustainability of our business. Let's now turn to page 5.

Here, we outline our pipeline, already reflecting the broader scope and diversification of the group after the Koleo acquisition. What you see on this page is not just the next wave of inflows, but the shape of a business that is becoming structurally wider, more diversified, and more balanced across products and geographies.

The NPE pipeline is large and diversified. This pipeline amounts to €50 billion, well distributed across countries and asset classes, with almost a quarter being UTP.

I would like to take a moment to clarify the tax credits opportunity in Italy. As part of the '26 budget law, the government has introduced a new framework to recover unpaid tax and property revenues from local authorities, with AMCO appointed to orchestrate the collection effort.

A decree expected in March will define the operational parameters, including the potential outsourcing to licensed operators, a key enabling step for volumes to flow. We are currently working on obtaining a license in order to be among the selected sub-servicers.

For now, the initial stock identified has recovered amounts to roughly €20 billion, and we are prudently including €4 billion of that in our pipeline as the share realistically obtainable by doValue. It's important to be clear: these figures represent only the first phase of the opportunity, specifically the local authority receivables that were already assigned to the Agenzia delle Entrate.

If the model proves effective and scalable, the pipeline would expand materially, potentially including local authority receivables currently handled by smaller local operators, central government receivables today managed exclusively by Agenzia delle Entrate. Parallely, on the Koleo side, the pipeline is extremely strong, with potential for additional annual revenue of over €250 million.

This means that, with the current deals in the market, Koleo could effectively more than double its annual revenue, a largely diversified customer base. Indeed, 2/3 of the pipeline come from sector beyond e-commerce, including telcos, insurance, and mobility.

All this comes from opportunities in markets where Koleo is currently present. Once we look at expanding Koleo into doValue, this opportunity further expands.

We included a deep dive for Italy and Spain, and you can see there are plenty of sectors with small-ticket receivables that Koleo could tap with its highly automated digital recovery processes. Let's now turn to page 6.

Here, we frame the market backdrop. Insolvency have been rising across the EU, with bankruptcy declaration up 18% year-on-year in '24 and the '25 run rate reaching the highest level since '19.

In Q4 '25, seasonally adjusted declarations were once again up quarter-on-quarter, underscoring that the trends remain live. By country, the picture is fully in line with what we observe on the ground.

Greece recorded an average plus 20% quarterly increase through 2025. Italy is expected to exceed pre-pandemic insolvency levels.

Germany started its upswing later, but is expected to continue. Spain shows insolvency levels contained but higher versus 10 years ago across most markets.

Now, an important point of context: our business plan '24-'26 was built without assuming any macroeconomic shock or deterioration. Despite that, we have delivered new business significantly above expectation in both '24 and '25, even while banks were reporting historically low new NPE ratios and cost of risk.

What this means is that in an already benign credit environment, doValue has still captured strong inflows and commercial traction. If the current insolvency trend persists or broadens, it represents potential upside versus the intake assumed in our plan, with the usual time lag between filing and onboarding, and with the same discipline on mix and pricing guiding what we choose to service.

Now, on to a more cheerful note, let's move to page 7 for an update on Koleo. '25 has been another really strong year for them, despite management being largely involved with a long and complex sales process to doValue.

Koleo grew new files by 23% to 9.6 million files, reflecting both in-market client growth, notably in telco across Germany, Sweden, and the UK, and client-driven expansion into three new markets: Switzerland, Norway, Finland without M&A. On the digital engagement and service quality, Koleo is running AI-enabled interaction across Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, and Norway, delivering over 1 million customer interaction completely digital, whilst maintaining excellent customer satisfaction metrics.

On the financial side, Koleo delivered around €60 million EBITDA in 2025, excluding EBITDA coming from the hybrid model, with a 35% increase in portfolio investments, which fuel future collection revenue growth. It's important to note that this 35% increase in portfolio investment was entirely funded through the strong cash generation of the business, evidence of the sustainability of the hybrid model.

Moving to page 8, we have initially hoped to close the Koleo transaction by January. The closing is still pending without any issues.

I'd like to give you some color on the process. The transaction is cleared by four major authorities in several countries where Koleo operates.

We are waiting clearance from just one last authority in Germany. The timeline was extended due to the document collection and examination requirements across multiple jurisdiction and counterparties, an administrative multi-party review that has simply taken longer than anticipated.

Importantly, there has been no change to the perimeter on terms agreed, and we remain fully engaged with the authority on the remaining steps. From an execution readiness standpoint, we are prepared to move quickly once clearance arrives.

We have already agreed the integration plan structured along seven workstreams: Governance, Finance, HR, IT, Procurement, AI, and Business Expansion, with clear owners, detailed checklists, and no disruption expected for clients. The AI workstream is set to make Koleo the group AI hub for small tickets, digital forward flows, while preserving our high-touch approach on complex exposures.

We will close promptly upon receipt of the final clearance, and are operationally ready to integrate from day one. First, we operate in two very different arenas.

Now, you can see it on page 9. Here, we want to comment upon the recent noise about what the AI winners and losers will be, and we want to be very concrete about how AI touches our business.

On the one hand, we manage mid-large secured loans, our core book with an average ticket of around €70,000, where AI mainly improves cost efficiency and workflow orchestration, but outcomes still require experienced asset managers. Here, AI is an enabler with limited impact on economics, not a substitute for human expertise.

On smaller unsecured tickets, AI matters more because full automation is needed to make unit economic work. That is exactly why we choose to enter this segment through Koleo, a digital and AI-driven platform built for scale.

In practice, we are already using AI where it moves the needle. Digital debtor portals and channels are live in Greece, about 30% of 0 to 90 days collection are handled digitally.

We are also using modeling and advanced analytics for segmentation and propensity to pay, virtual agents to support our teams on case triage, responses, and call wrap-ups, and document analytics to extract facts from judicial and notarial files. The impact is visible.

With the initial adoption of the digital platform in Greece, small-ticket EBITDA margin increased from roughly 33% to 89%, a step change that illustrates how automation can lower the cost to collect without compromising governance. It's equally important to explain why we are structurally protected as the AI adoption accelerates in three ways.

First, regulation: our activities require licenses and human oversight. AI cannot hold a servicing license or assume legal responsibility under certain regulation, human in the loop is mandatory in our market.

Second, data: AI needs domain-specific training data. doValue owns one of the Southern Europe most expansive proprietary credit recovery databases, which is private and not available to third-party models.

Third, complexity: corporate and secured recoveries are bespoke and legal-intensive. Local court filing, multi-party negotiation are at the heart of our business.

Automation can manage low-value, high-volume cases; experts drive outcomes on complex claims. Our strategy is clear: automate at scale where automation wins, small ticket via Koleo, and augment human expertise where value is created, secured and complex claims at doValue, all under a roadmap with a clear governance.

Regulation, data, and complexity will continue to be durable moats as AI progresses. Let's now turn to page 10 with an overview on the German market, which will become very important for us.

Germany is now the number two NPL market in Europe by stock held on banks' balance sheets at €46 billion, up 24% versus 2019, and 21% larger than the current Italian size. Importantly, this €46 billion figure covers banks only.

It excludes positions held by investors, fintechs, and debt purchasers, and receivables from non-financial entities served by Koleo. The true addressable market is materially larger than on-balance-sheet number.

Yet the servicing market is underdeveloped. It's highly fragmented, with servicers typically specialized by client segments and no meaningfully consolidation to date, leaving limited-scale platform and clear scope for a consolidator to bring multi-client, multi-product capabilities.

On execution, the regulatory bar is also a differentiator. Since '24, Germany requires a CSI license to operate in credit servicing.

We have secured the license, established doValue Germany, onboarded project staff, and identified key hires, completed the first market analysis, upgraded system to run NPL workflows, and onboarded an initial client, aiming to make profits already in '27. All this are concrete, tangible steps and not simple intentions.

Strategically, this expansion is the first synergy of the Koleo acquisition. Germany is Koleo's largest market, even ahead of closing, we are not standstill.

We are leveraging Koleo footprint and digital stack to accelerate entry, demonstrating that we are proactive and already putting the model in motion to scale quickly once consolidation is completed. To sum up, a large and growing German NPL pool plus a fragmented servicing landscape creates room for a sizable opportunity.

We are in market, licensed, and building capacity, using Koleo as the first synergy of the deal to ensure that once consolidation is completed, we can scale delivery from day one. Before I hand over to Davide to walk you through the financials, let's turn to page 11 and look at the progress made so far on the business plan horizon.

This is our second consecutive year of delivery against guidance, and we are ahead on the 2024-2026 business plan. Cumulatively, we have already reached the full three-year new business target in just two years: more than €24 billion of GBV from new business in '24 and '25 only.

Engine 2 of growth is delivering. The digital platform is live in all countries.

Our alternative asset management company is above €1 billion of fee-generating AUM, with two new funds launched in recent months. FinLeap has already intermediated 2,000 mortgage applications, and our advisory unit continues to expand.

With the consolidation of Koleo, Engine 2 will become the group main business and represent the majority of group revenue from day one, not over time, shifting the group revenue mix as outlined at the Capital Markets Day. On capital structure, we delivered as well.

We refinanced 2025-2026 bonds by summer '25, and in October '25, issued the 350 2031 notes at a coupon 160 bps lower than the February issuance, despite the longer maturity. Our bonds trade at a yield to maturity below 5%, the lowest in the industry, and we still see room to optimize interest costs through further refinancing.

Finally, financial performance is in line with guidance: GBV of €136 billion, EBITDA of €217 million ex-NRI, free cash flow of €76 million, net leverage of 2x. Overall, we are delivering what we said.

We are ahead on the transformation, and we are doing it with a capital structure and a financial profile that support the next phase. Actually, we didn't just deliver on the numbers; we overdelivered on our strategic position.

We expanded our geographical footprint, strengthened our AI capabilities, and broadened our product scope, with an acquisition that will open a new chapter for doValue at the next Capital Markets Day. We did all this while keeping leverage in check and delivering on every standalone target.

I will now hand over to Davide, who will take you through the financial results in more details.

Davide Soffietti

Thank you, Manuela, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by saying that 2025 was a year of tangible progress and strong financial execution, as is clear from the summary of our preliminary full year results on page 13.

2025 stands out as a year where we delivered strong results and materially enhanced profitability, with double-digit increases in both revenues and EBITDA. Gross revenues in 2025 was €580 million, showing a solid double-digit growth of 21.1% versus the prior year.

Despite temporary timing effects related to the ramp-up of the collection process on the new Greek portfolios, the underlying momentum remained strong, with growth sustained by non-NPL revenue, which continued to expand their contribution to the group's mix, as indicated in our plan. Net revenue rose to €524 million, mirroring the gross revenue growth in the presence of a stable impact of outsourcing costs year-over-year.

EBITDA ex-NRI reached €217 million, up 31.8% versus 2024. Synergies expected from the Gardant acquisition are playing out exactly as expected in Italy, with integration now largely completed.

Cost discipline across the other regions continued to support high margin, up by 3 percentage points from the 2024 level. Net income ex-NRI increased to €25 million, more than tripling from €7 million in 2024, despite higher financial costs and the higher D&A following the consolidation with the Gardant perimeter.

This is fully consistent with our M&A philosophy. Every transaction must be EPS accretive, and the performance we are showing confirms exactly that.

The Koleo acquisition will show in our figures in 2026, and it will be a similar story. Moving now to page 14, we can find breakdown of gross revenues by region.

At group level, gross revenues grew by 21.1% year-on-year, driven by continued growth in non-NPL revenues, both UTPs and recurring non-NPLs. Non-NPL revenues represent now 36% of gross revenues, up 1 percentage point from 2024, in line with the group strategic shift towards higher growth, lower volatility segments.

This will expand further following the completion of the Koleo acquisition. In the Hellenic region, as mentioned, revenues in Q4 decelerated due to timing effects in the ramp-up of new portfolios, which we expect to contribute fully to revenue in 2026.

Other than that, the regions continue to show sustained activity across all of the business segments, with healthy collections underpinned by a vibrant market. In Italy, gross revenue grew 61% year-on-year, supported by the combined contribution of Gardant and the strong growth in non-NPL revenue, which will continue to expand even excluding Gardant.

It is important to highlight that even on a standalone basis, both doValue and Gardant recorded low single-digit growth, confirming that the stabilization of GBV and increasing weight of non-NPL revenues are already shaping a new, positive, growing dynamic, even in a mature market such as Italy. In Spain, revenue declined €41 million, as weakness in REOs was mitigated by circa 60% growth in UTP servicing.

Revenues in the future will be driven by new business intake in a still fragmented market. On page 15, you can see the results of the continuous cost discipline, as first, at group level, and of the successful integration of Gardant, delivering all the synergies promised one year ago.

In 2025, operating costs increased only by 14.6% year-on-year, 6.5 percentage points less than revenues, despite inclusion of the cost base of Gardant. More in detail, HR costs grew 17.3%, leading to an incidence of revenues lowered by more than 130 basis points, mainly thanks to the effective release of synergies in Italy, as well as cost savings across all geographies.

As for IT, real estate, and G&A expenses, we record an increase of only €4 million, with the incidence already falling 170 basis points as the group released savings in all markets. On page 16, we find the per-country details of EBITDA ex-NRI, which reached €217 million at group level, up by 31.8% year-over-year, and landing at upper end of our guidance for 2025.

In the Hellenic region, EBITDA ex-NRI has reached €121.4 million, with a reduction versus 2024 that mirrors the revenue dynamics, although partially mitigated by cost discipline measures. The region continues to be a key profitability driver for the group, contributing 56% of total EBITDA ex-NRI, with a solid 51% margin.

In Italy, EBITDA increased 53% with the contribution of Gardant, as well as effective release of synergies. Indeed, the Gardant integration has been progressing really well and the synergies are evident.

In Italy, the EBITDA margin increased by 13 percentage points year-on-year, with more value extracted from the acquisition than originally expected. These remarkable results demonstrate the high value-creating nature of our M&A activities.

In Spain, we achieved a positive EBITDA, as continuous savings contributed to offset negative trends observed in REOs. Non-recurring items for the period were limited to negative €8 million, originating mainly from consultancy costs related to the Koleo acquisition and costs to release Gardant synergies.

Moving to page 17, we show very positive dynamics in net income evolution, which, excluding non-recurring items, more than tripled to €25 million, an increase by €19 million compared to 2024. Analyzing the most impactful items between EBITDA and net income, depreciation, amortization, and net impairment on PP&E and intangible increased €36 million year-over-year.

The increase versus last year is mainly related to incremental D&A from Gardant and its PPA. Net financial interest and commission were higher, reflecting the normal impact of the larger gross debt following recent M&A activities.

This includes the term loan taken in 2024 to fund the Gardant acquisition, currently circa €300 million outstanding and amortizing €53 million per annum; €300 million bond due 2030 issued in February; and €350 million bond due 2031 issued in November and currently held in escrow until closing of the Koleo transaction. Income tax decreased on a recurring basis by 17% year-on-year, while reported tax increased due the adverse comparison effect related to an extraordinary €20 million positive aspect in 2024 from a tax claim won in Spain.

Net income attributable to non-controlling interest increased €6 million in 2025 to €18.1 million due to Gardant minorities. Non-recurring items for the period amounted to €34 million, up by €29 million, mainly due to the aforementioned €20 million positive effect from the tax claim in Spain related to 2024 and the non-recurring financial cost related to the two recent bond issuances and early redemption of the '26 bond.

As a result, net income, excluding non-recurring items, reached €25.3 million, up by €19 million, paving the way for dividend payouts in line with our dividend policy. Moving to page 18, let's have a look at the cash flow dynamics, which, as anticipated in our plan, improved significantly.

We are pleased to see the group being back to its previous high cash-generation levels, with cash flow from operations up €99 million to €181 million in the full year, thanks to positive EBITDA contribution and working capital dynamic, and tighter control over the change in other assets and liabilities. Capital expenditure increased by €11 million versus last year, higher than previously guided, due to AI and automation initiatives to unlock efficiencies, investments in data strategy, investments to strengthen the group's cybersecurity perimeter, as well as investments linked to the Gardant integration, namely unification of systems across the company.

Net working capital released €32 million, mainly linked to the recovery of past invoices in Greece and some non-recurring expenses related to Koleo, which will be paid on closing. Lease payments under IFRS 16 amounted to €17 million, including Gardant perimeter, in line with previous messaging.

Payments for redundancy were €11 million, slightly down versus 2024, as the group successfully limited redundancy by relocating personnel across the wider doValue-Gardant perimeter, limiting the use of external task managers. Change in other assets and liabilities reflects the expected reversal of MBO effects, and includes a positive effect related to the Koleo transaction, which will be reversed in 2026.

Minorities were unchanged, as Sevengroup was paid out as expected. Investments in equity and financial assets accounted for €18 million, mainly from non-recurring payments for the earnout in Greece and investment in Alba Leasing.

Taking all this into account, free cash flow before debt repayment or dividend landed at €76 million, above our €60 to €70 million guidance range. On a recurring basis, excluding M&A-related effects, such as earnout for doValue Greece, Alba Leasing, free cash flow for debt repayment would have been €93 million, bridging the gap towards the 2026 free cash flow guidance.

Based on the results achieved, doValue currently trades at a free cash flow yield of around 18%, or 21% on a recurring basis. To conclude, let's now move on page 19 and take a look at our financial structure.

Net financial leverage at the end of December stood at 2x, down from the 2.4x level at December 2024, reaching the target for the 2025 despite an additional extraordinary M&A-related to Alba Leasing. Even after the €53 million term loan repayment, the group maintained a solid liquidity buffer of €277 million, made up of €145 million cash on balance sheet and €132 million undrawn revolving credit facility, including a €20 million new facility agreed in January '26, which remains completely undrawn.

Overall, we closed the year with a solid capital structure: double-B credit rating, strong performance in the bond market, with our bonds trading at the lowest yields in industry, below 5%, and no refinancing needs until 2030, given the recent November issuance to finance the Koleo acquisition, currently held in escrow. As we continue on our deleverage path, we also see further opportunities to optimize our cost of debt by refinancing instruments issued at higher coupon.

Importantly, this structure gives us significant flexibility in future capital allocation and shareholder remuneration, topics that will be addressed in detail as part of the next Capital Markets Day. This is all on our side for today.

Thank you all for the attention. We will now take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. This is the chorus call conference operator.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their telephone.

To remove yourself from the question queue, please press * and 2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions.

Anyone who has a question may press * and 1 at this time. The first question is from Tommaso Nieddu of Kepler Cheuvreux.

Tommaso Nieddu

Good morning and thank you a lot for taking my questions. I have a few.

The first one on free cash flow, which was clearly the main positive surprise. On working capital, the €32 million release in 2025 was I believe materially ahead of both your prior guidance and our expectation.

Can you help us understand with more details what structurally changed there and also beyond the €5 million temporary benefit from Koleo. Given the 2025 net working capital release, as we think about 2026, should we assume broadly neutral working capital or do you see scope for further structural release?

The second question is on dividends, while you reiterated that the proposal will be in line with policy. Could you give us more clarity on how you think about positioning within the 50% to 70% payout range?

For now, the last one on Gardant. You originally guided for €5 million of synergies in 2025 and €15 million at a full run rate.

My question is could you quantify how much has been realized to date and whether there is any incremental upside beyond the €15 million target? Thank you.

Davide Soffietti

Thank you, Tommaso. We'll take your first question.

Free cash flow, €32 million, as anticipated, mainly from Greece, as we guided €15 million to €20 million, the higher level of our guidance. Then we have also a contribution, as I was saying, from Koleo, we have roughly €3 million that have been included in the reported EBITDA that will be paid in 2026 at closing.

Then we have also positive impact from Italy, both working capital, but also because we were able to use our tax credit, DTA that has been transformed in tax credit that has been used to pay the VAT related to the working capital. For '26, we still expect a positive contribution from working capital.

We still need to recover advance payment we made in Greece, we will expect still a double-digit contribution of working capital in 2026.

Manuela Franchi

On the dividend front, we will propose to be on the high end of our guidance in terms of percentage, probably rounding the numbers up. On the Gardant integration, about 2025, we closed between actual synergies of around €9 million to €10 million.

We confirm still the run rate of €15 million, hoping to do better. All the action have been put in place.

The technical aspects to be executed will complete by June, by June, everything is really closed. The team is running ahead of guidance on the cost efficiency side.

Tommaso Nieddu

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Antonio Gianfrancesco of Intermonte.

Antonio Gianfrancesco

Good morning and thank you for taking my question. Congratulations for this set of results.

I have three questions. The first one is on new business, because new business intake reached the €14.5 billion in 2025, exceeding already the cumulative business plan target, a very good figure.

It would be useful to better understand your expectation for inflows in 2026, both in terms of volume and product mix, and how confident you are in maintaining this commercial momentum in a market where NPE inflows remain for sure structurally low, but insolvency trends appear to be rising. The second question is on Koleo, because I understand that BaFin approval is the final step before closing, and you have confirmed your guidance for 2026, which includes Koleo's contribution.

Considering that the actual closing will now take place at least two months later than planned, or something like that, it would be useful to understand whether you expect this delay to have any potential impact on execution in 2026. The third one is on the Germany expansion.

You highlighted Germany as a fragmented and unconsolidated market, with CSI licensing obtained and operations starting if I don't understand worst, in January 2026. Some additional color on the medium-term ambition in that geography, let's say in terms of scale, investment intensity, and potential margin profile would be very, very helpful.

Thank you.

Manuela Franchi

Thanks for your question. On the business volumes, clearly there were major transactions this year that we had embedded as probability in our pipeline, but obviously if they all realized in a positive manner, that probability, no, became 100% and this has brought to doubling the level.

Clearly, the level of primary transaction across the core markets, the Southern European one, we see them less in the traditional NPL business, while they will be mostly focused on the UTP and early arrears part. Also the pipeline regarding non-financial claims from there is quite big, given that it's a market we don't touch today or at a very limited extent in Spain, and that for us is an open opportunity.

We confirm, we reiterate still what we had as a business plan of €8 billion. Clearly, this €8 billion is composed by forward flows and the new contracts.

On a positive note, the forward flow this year only contributed more than €4 billion. Clearly, this includes UniCredit that has finished in terms of forward flow last October, but is replaced by Sondrio that, obviously it's smaller, that will start after April, and the renewal of Santander, which this year has done more than €1 billion over our budget.

This brings us to positive expectation also on the forward flow contribution of 2026. If you remember, our original mix in the €8 billion was 2 from forward flow and 6 from the rest, and also this component is much higher.

This is without Koleo. Obviously, Koleo has an end market which is different, and in that sense is a growing, no, market.

This is all assuming in our core business still not substantial increase in the default rates, which is instead happening. We prefer still to be conservative on this front, also because you might remember that the time between winning a new contract, onboarding, and the actual pick up of the activities takes a bit of time, and so it has a more diluted effect over time.

Now, on the Koleo side, in terms of execution of the integration, we don't see impact on the execution. Why?

We have already defined the integration plan and we are already moving ahead with the business opportunities without waiting the closing. Koleo team has built a division to manage NPL and has already deployed the system which allows them under our guidance to manage our traditional NPL, and they already got a new client from January for which they're managing NPL, a bank.

We are talking to banks. I was actually in Frankfurt for a conference with banks just two days ago because the regulator is telling them to prepare themselves for this increasing wave because they are not used also internally to manage more NPL, and to do it more efficiently based on other models, and Italy was portrayed as a reference model for the servicing industry.

That activity is developing. On the other side, we are deploying in Italy and in Spain, no, the Koleo models and system, and we can say that already from April, we will start managing two of their major clients in our jurisdiction.

This is a major result. Then if you look from a pure accounting standpoint, clearly the figures we have given are pro forma, and depends on the timing of close we will consolidate from that point in time.

In terms of free cash flow generation and the targets, we feel confident given that the contribution of Koleo in '26 was pretty much somehow offset at most spend from the transaction costs, while the full effect on the free cash flow side is from the year after. Because we already achieved this year clean for the extraordinary elements the €90 million guidance, the target for the 2.2, no, it's pretty much sustainable despite this delay.

Now, going back to your last question on the German expansion, clearly our history in Germany is different, no, from Southern Europe where we bought a legacy platform that we needed to make more efficient, more modern. In Germany, we start with a model which is extremely light, doesn't have legacy, and we'd like to grow our market share keeping that approach.

We will look to M&A in a very tactful and selective manner, but we prefer the organic growth strategy in that specific sector, given that it has proven very successful and the AI-driven collection model in the German market has taken a lot of market share from traditional players in the small-ticket business, and we hope to do the same also for the NPL, obviously adding the more human-intensive piece that we have explained is critical for when you manage larger tickets. On that front, as I said, the team has already hired a few people, has already the system in place, and all of this is all these costs are included already in the guidance we have given.

Antonio Gianfrancesco

Very clear. Thank you.

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Davide Rimini, Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.

Davide Rimini

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Just a few.

One is on cash flow. I was just wondering, you mentioned already your guidance in terms of working capital contribution for this year.

I just wonder whether you might mention the few other building blocks to get to a rough guidance for this year versus the €76 million reported today. The second question would be just a clarification on the pro forma confirmed guidance for this year.

I just wonder whether you might add on Koleo business whether there is any seasonality in the business that we should be aware of within the year, and that might affect sort of this message. The third question still on Koleo, I noticed that you put sort of a slide on the potential pipeline in the 18 months forward on 250, and at the same time you highlighted the opportunity is being expanded the business in countries like Italy and Spain.

I just wonder whether the 250 is including these opportunities or is excluding those. Thank you.

Davide Soffietti

Hello, Davide. We'll take your first question.

'26, as we mentioned, already 2025 shows that we are able to, excluding non-recurring items, to be at €90 million. In 2026, we'll still have CapEx.

It will be quite in line with this year, probably around €30 million. We'll have a positive contribution from working capital between €20 million and €25 million.

We'll have change in other assets and liabilities that are always the IFRS 16, €17 million plus redundancies that I expect around €15 million. We have tax income to be paid, around €30 million, financial charge expected roughly €36 million, €38 million.

We still have the earnout to the Greece that is the last one we need to pay this year is €12 million, and the next one will be in 2030 of €16 million, and minorities that is quite in line with this year, roughly €8 million. On Koleo, as Manuela was mentioning, we'll get free cash flow that will be mainly compensated by the transaction cost and by higher financial charge.

From 2026, we will benefit from the Koleo cash flow. This is why we are confirming €90 million.

Then we'll have the benefit of the proceeds for the portfolio sales. As this is in line with our guidance, we will reduce the gross debt.

Manuela Franchi

On the guidance for '26, if I understood the question correctly, this year, we closed for the doValue Group at 217. In terms of EBITDA, we indicated in the guidance last year that the 300 included the bottom-end guidance of we had given before of 240 to 250.

In Koleo, there is no seasonality effect. There are some mild effects related to peaks of e-commerce transaction around Christmas and the like, but nothing, no, as typical as court activity in the traditional business.

In relation to your last question, if you're looking to page 5, the pipeline of Koleo of the 250 does not include the expansion to Southern Europe.

Davide Rimini

Thank you. If I may just have a follow-up sort of on on on the CapEx that you mentioned, the €30 million is could could you give us sort of a sense why sort of it should be off versus the the €35 million reported today?

Davide Soffietti

Can you say it again?

Davide Rimini

I just wonder if I picked up correctly sort of you are pointing to €30 million CapEx this year off versus the 35 reported today. I was wondering whether there is any reason for

Davide Soffietti

this. No.

Davide Rimini

The

Davide Soffietti

main delta this year were included all the costs mainly related to the Gardant synergies that were one-off to integrate platform and to have the positive aspect of synergies. From next year, we will save this money, we probably continue to spend our running CapEx plus the investment in...

Manuela Franchi

Just to be clear, we don't expect lots of cost from the integration of Koleo because it's a different platform. We will have some integration of unification of back-end platform, but it's more deployment and it's much more contained than in the Gardant case, which included a significant, obviously, FTE reduction effort and related integration of in-market platforms that in this case, we're not going to have.

Clearly, you have some costs related to the development of their platform in our countries and of our platform in their country. The second one has already been expensed in their P&L in 2025, given that we moved ahead just after signing.

This impact of integration is much less. Another important point is with an increasing trend vis-à-vis the past, the component of development, new technologies, AI, projects as part of the CapEx has materially increased.

Last year was probably around 30%, this year will be more than 50%. This is obviously a function of bringing better processes, better technologies in our core system rather than integrating what we had.

Davide Rimini

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Davide Giuliano of Equita.

Davide Giuliano

Hi. Good morning and thank you for taking my questions.

I have four. The first one on gross revenues.

Revenues were a touch below your guidance, but more than offset by remarkable efforts on costs. Can you give us some color on the like-for-like trend in revenues, and are you seeing a more pronounced slowdown in recent quarters compared to your guidance?

Where do the difference come from? The second one on Greece.

In the release, you reported that there are still slow downs in the onboarding of portfolios, I guess still related to the Alphabet tranches. In addition, we have also seen a marked drop in the collection rate compared to last year.

Why are you experiencing these difficulties in onboarding, and in general, what trajectory do you expect for the Greek business going forward? The third one on tax credits.

Have there been any relevant developments for state tax credits, and can you give us your expectation on profitability of local tax credit servicing, which will be assigned to AMCO? The very last one is just a quick comment on Koleo results, who were very good in 2025.

I was wondering, in light of Klarna recent results, if your long-term assessment of the Koleo business model or concentration risk with Klarna has changed? Thank you.

Davide Soffietti

Hi, Davide. We'll take your first question on revenues.

As we anticipated, in Greece, the reduction is not a factual reduction. It's mainly correlated to, as you have mentioned, we have onboarded a huge amount of portfolios in 2025, very big, more than €5 billion.

All the portfolio are onboarded and we are managing those portfolio. The only difference is when you onboard this big portfolio, you need to work on those portfolio to have up and running revenues.

The expectation was to anticipate certain revenue during 2025, but because they are very, very big portfolio, we need to work on those portfolio, start judicial action to also reach an out-of-court agreement with the borrower. This created a temporary delay of those revenues from 2025 to 2026.

This is also impacting the collection rate you are mentioning because, for sure, now we have this new portfolio, we are still not having a run rate collection rate, with the 50 will be lower, then we will pick up and go back to the previous collection rate. We will consider these only really temporary effect that will not be anymore in 2026.

Then we have also, as I mentioned in Spain, the reduction of revenue of REOs, but that one has been also a choice for us because that part was not high margin, we prefer to reduce these revenues, increasing other type of credit to manage that had lower revenues, but higher profitability.

Manuela Franchi

On the tax credits, we are waiting or AMCO is waiting the operating metrics and that the laws to be published by March will indicate on how to execute what was in the budget law. Based on that, they're defining the operating model on which the servicer they will use will work on.

We assume that after June, that type of business will be moved to them and they will allocate to sub-servicers. We have, as a good relationship with them, given that last year we even doubled the amount of portfolios that we were managing for them after they assessed the number of servicers they work with.

We are equipping ourselves for to manage that business, which is not included in our budget estimates. The margin we are hoping for is driven not by the type of receivable, but by the operating model that we want to create.

On the back end, on our side, it should be a digital model, to confirm the margin we have on the rest of the business in Italy. Now, on the Koleo results, maybe Daniele can comment?

Daniele Della Seta

Klarna results, you mean?

Manuela Franchi

Yeah.

Daniele Della Seta

Yeah. We watch very closely the quarterly results of Klarna, of course, because it is a key customer of Koleo.

First, let me begin by saying that, as you have seen from the pipeline, Koleo is diversifying much from Klarna. Nevertheless, it is still an important customer.

What we watch for in the quarterly results of Klarna is the growth in the transacted volume. This is growing very healthy across all of the regions where Koleo operates, specifically the most important are Germany, UK, and Sweden.

In those region, Klarna is already very profitable with its flagship product, which is pay in three installments. A good news is that they launched recently the Klarna card.

It's a debit card that fits in your phone and allow you to purchase in normal brick and mortar shops, and with buy now, pay later installments. This is already producing an increase in purchase frequency by eight times in Germany.

This is driving a solid growth of transacted volume in UK by 40% and in Germany by 20%. We are happy about Klarna growth.

Of course, their profits are suffering from expansion in other products, such as consumer financing in the US. We think that there's a clear rationale in expanding in those products, and we hope that at a certain point, Koleo will be able to expand its product offering towards this more profitable product.

Davide Giuliano

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti of Mediobanca.

Simonetta Chiriotti

Yes. Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions.

Looking at the guidance for 2026, excluding Koleo, you projected growth from 217 to 240. Could you elaborate a bit more on the trends in the various markets?

Should we expect growth in the Hellenic region, for example, and a further growth in Italy? My second question is on tax receivables.

In the past, I think that you have mentioned that there is an opportunity also in Greece on this segment. Could you just give us an update on this?

Thank you.

Manuela Franchi

Good morning, Simonetta. On the Hellenic front, we see three types of growth.

One, the full action on the €7 billion new portfolio onboarded in 2025. We'll have collection effect on certain younger vintages that we didn't have before.

This was what Davide was explaining, that you need to put activities in place before you see the actual results. On the other side, don't forget that Greece is probably the country where we are diversifying more the product offer.

We have the real estate company, the mortgage broking company, the advisory company. We are offering a data proposition out of the advisory company from this year.

We have created another company which of manage a small-ticket unsecured starting from next year, which is called DoServe. We'd open the market for non-financial receivables and also the tax receivable opportunities you were mentioning, where the process shall start next month, but this is as a upside is included in a very small amount in our budget, given that it's a public tender process and it might take a bit longer.

On the Italian front, the ex-doValue perimeter, but also the Gardant one have been growing this year mildly vis-à-vis last year. We are now deploying at full speed also the revenue synergies that we had in the Gardant perimeter.

Then in Italy, we have the asset management company, so that falls under that perimeter, where we have developed two new funds, recently actually three, and we have a pipeline for next year, too. Last, on the data side, we think we will increase significantly the product offer to non-captive clients.

We have already developed the products. Remember, we also are launching in Italy the Sage 2 product, which we might be closing with two banks a contract.

This is in our assumption. It's exploiting as much as possible the stock we have and the new flows from BPM, BPER, and Sondrio, but also to grow these other revenue lines.

While in Spain, apart from the fact that we have developed digital collection now in all the countries with a marginality increase which is very strong, I think Davide mentioned that on the 0 to 90 days past due, the margin on the digital channel is more than 80% versus less than 40% before. There we are deploying a JV, but, no, we will discuss in more details in the next calls on the legal servicing side, because the structure of the legal services in the Spanish market allow us to develop this type of proposition, it's really a professional services type of revenues, where we are going to use the capacity we have inside with strong lawyers with expertise in this sector for other sectors which are not NPL-related.

Simonetta Chiriotti

Thank you.

Operator

Mr. Della Seta, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Daniele Della Seta

Thank you, all. We wish you a good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over.

You may disconnect your telephones.