Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Befesa First Half 2026 Results Conference Call. I am Valentina, the Chorus Call operator.
I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session.
You can register for questions at any time by pressing * and 1 on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press * and 0.
The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Rafael Pérez, CFO.
Please go ahead.
Rafael Pérez
Good morning, and welcome to the first half of 2026 results conference call of Befesa. I am Rafael Pérez, CFO of Befesa, and this morning, I'm joined by our Group CEO, Asier Zarraonandia.
Asier will start with an executive summary of the period, and then he will cover the business highlights of the steel dust, as well as aluminum salt slags recycling businesses. I will then review the first half financials by business, and cover the evolution of commodity prices, hedging program, and finally, cash flow, net debt, leverage, and capital allocation.
Asier will close the presentation providing an update of the outlook for the rest of 2026 and an update of our growth plan. Finally, we will open the line for the Q&A session.
Before getting started, let me remind you that this conference call is being webcast live. You can find the link to this webcast on our website.
Now, let me turn this call over to our CEO. Asier, please.
Asier Zarraonandia
Thank you, Rafa. Good morning, all.
Moving to page 5 for the financial and business highlights. Befesa has delivered strong second quarter results, resulting in a remarkable first half results with solid volume growth, especially from our operations in the US.
Total adjusted EBITDA in this half has been €124 million, up 11% compared to the same period last year, reflecting a strong performance driven by solid volume and a favorable development of the zinc LME price, especially during the second quarter. EBITDA margin of the group has significantly improved to 22% in Q2 2026 versus 19% in the second quarter of 2025.
The deleveraging trend continued, with financial leverage reduced to 2.18 in June 2026 compared to 2.7 in June 2025. The increase in net income and EPS of 13% year-on-year reflects our improved profitability.
In the steel dust business, we delivered a strong EBITDA in the first half, driven mainly by higher zinc spot prices and volume growth. Our secondary aluminum business remains operating in a challenging business environment.
The continue high scrap leakage in Europe, with export volumes of aluminum scrap results being currently at a record high in a challenge for the entire sector on the supply side. Regarding the group outlook for the full year 2026, we confirm our EBITDA guidance in the range of €250 million to €270 million.
This outlook is mainly based on higher steel dust throughput, especially in the US. After a solid performance in the first half of the year, we remain optimistic for the second half of the year.
Zinc prices are on an elevated level, which is favorable for us. However, the macroeconomic and geopolitical framework remain volatile.
We will continue to execute our selective growth projects with high returns. This results in a limited growth CapEx requirement while at the same time laying on foundation for future growth and continuing reduction of our financial leverage.
We continuous strengthening our balance sheet further with a target leverage ratio below 2x by the end of the year. Moving now on to page 6 with the business highlights for the steel dust business.
European steel production continued at a five-year low level in H1, with a flat development year-on-year caused by weak end-market demand. Despite this, the load factor increased by 6% to 91%, driven by a strong dust deliveries, especially in the second quarter.
Steel production grew by 6% in the US. Consequently, our business in the US benefited from this development through the higher dust deliveries.
The load factor increased by 11% to an average utilization of 75% in Q2. In Asia, volumes in Turkey were weak, and Korean operation remained at similar level than last year.
We expect both markets, Turkey and Korea, to improve in the second half of the year. Finally, China.
Utilization remained subdued. Earnings, however, were still at break-even levels.
Moving on to page 7, business highlights for the aluminum salt slag recycling and secondary aluminum recycling business. On salt slags, volume were flattish year-over-year in the second quarter as volume have normalized.
We expect normalized production for the rest of the year. In secondary aluminum recycling, volumes are still under pressure caused by challenging market environment, which is characterized by lack of scrap, as discussed earlier, and a continue weak demand for automotive customers.
However, the metal margin improvement seen in the Q2 is a good signal that is expected to continue during the second part of the year. Now, I hand over to Rafa, who will explain the financials in more detail.
Rafael Pérez
Thank you, Asier. Moving on to page 9, the financial results for the steel dust segment.
The adjusted EBITDA increased in the first half of the year by 8% to €104 million, and the accordion margin improvement by 260 basis points to 7- to 27%. The €8 million improvement, adjusted EBITDA, was driven by higher LME price, volume growth, as well as lower coke prices, and was partially offset by unfavorable FX and general inflation.
Our global load factor improved by close to 4% year-over-year, providing better operational leverage. On price, zinc LME increased strongly year-over-year and was the main contributor to profitability growth.
Hedging was a slight headwind on euro terms. The combination of LME price, hedging, and FX resulted in an increase in the blended zinc price in euro terms by more than 3% year-on-year.
The increase in zinc treatment charge from $80 to $85 per ton was a very minor headwind, which was almost neglectable in the reporting period. The impact from FX movement, namely euro to US dollar, was negative in the first half of the year, whereas the headwind was significantly less pronounced in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of the year.
General inflation in contracts accelerated in the second quarter sequentially, driven by fuel cost. Moving on to page 10, financial results of our aluminum segment.
Aluminum salt slag grew revenues to €61 million and EBITDA to €18 million. Both revenues and EBITDA improved year-over-year by 10%.
While volumes declined by 4% and were a headwind to revenues, price increase and compensated for the volume-related headwind in both top and bottom line. In secondary alu, revenues and EBITDA were at the prior year's level.
The decline in volume was compensated by higher aluminum prices. EBITDA was furthermore supported by better metal margins.
Moving on to page 11, zinc price and treatment charges. The average LME zinc price during the first half of the year was $3,353 per ton, which is 22% above the same period of last year's average.
The average of the second quarter of 2026 was $3,463 per ton, compared to $3,243 per ton in the first quarter. The euro to dollar exchange rate increased from 1.09 to 1.17, representing a headwind in the period.
On the right-hand side of the slide, on treatment charges, nothing new. In 2025, treatment charges for zinc were at $80 per ton for the full year.
This year, treatment charge was settled at $85 per ton. Thus, the impact on profitability can almost be neglected.
Turning to page 12, hedging. We have continued to take opportunities in the market to extend our zinc hedging book until January 2029.
Our hedging book today covers close to 30 months of hedges, and thus the entire fiscal year of 2027 and 2028. We have done this at a record-high levels of $3,100 for '27 and '28.
We continue to monitor the market to close volumes for 2029. Now, turning to page 13, Befesa's energy prices.
The page shows the evolution of the three energy sources that we have at Befesa: coke, natural gas, and electricity. Regarding coke prices, which today represent around 50% of the total energy bill in the company, the normalization trend continued, and the war in the Middle East has, so far, no impact on prices on supply.
Average coke price in the second quarter was around €144 per ton, which is roughly 10% lower than the same period in last year. Regarding electricity, which today accounts for around 40% of the total energy expense, prices were approximately on last year's level.
Natural gas prices, however, were slightly upward sloping and were driven by the arising uncertainty resulting from the war damages on natural gas infrastructure in the Middle East. Turning to page 14, cash flow results.
Operating cash flow in the first half reached €71 million, which represents an increase of 10% compared to last year. On the EBITDA to cash flow bridge, starting with €124 million of adjusted EBITDA and to the left, working capital-related cash-out amounted to €44 million in the first half of the year, about €12 million higher than in the first half of last year.
The main reason for the increase in working capital in the first half was predominantly due to inventory build-up of WOX, which I have addressed earlier. In the second half of the year, we expect a normalization of the working capital, following a similar trend than in the previous years.
Taxes paid in the first half of the year came in at €5 million, compared to €12 million in the first half of last year. Operating cash flow was €71 million, compared to €64 million the previous period.
On CapEx, in the first half of the year, we have invested €31 million in regular maintenance. Growth CapEx this year is relatively front-end loaded and was €15 million.
This is related to the expansion of our Bernburg plant in Germany. In summary, total CapEx was €46 million in the first half, compared to €37 million in the same period of last year.
For the full year, we continue to expect total CapEx to be around €70 million. Total interest paid amounted to €15 million, and total bank borrowing amounted to €18 million in the first half of the year.
For 2025, the AGM approved in June 2026 to pay a dividend of €40 million in July, equivalent to €1 per share, or 50% of 2025 net income. In summary, final cash flow amounted to -€8 million in the first half.
Cash on hand stood at €134 million, which, together with the €100 million fully undrawn revolving credit line, provides Befesa with almost €240 million of liquidity. Gross debt at the end of June 2026 stood at €690 million, and net debt stood at €555 million, compared to €601 million in the same quarter of last year, resulting in a net leverage of 2.18 at the closing of the quarter, a strong improvement compared to the 2.7 at June 2025.
Turning to page 15, debt structure and leverage. The deleveraging trend continued for the ninth consecutive quarter in a row, with financial leverage reduced to 2.18 in June 2026, compared to 2.7 last year.
As a reminder, two years ago, in June 2024, leverage stood at 3.4. This development underlines the strong cash generation capabilities of our business and the capital allocation discipline in the period.
Following the refinancing back in July 2024 and the repricing in March of last year, Befesa today has a strong long-term capital structure with optimized financial cost. We will continue reducing the leverage to a level or below 2 times by the end of the year.
To do so, we limit the growth CapEx on these projects that will deliver immediate cash flow upon completion. Also, we will keep the annual regular maintenance CapEx around €45 million in the coming years.
On dividend, we are committed to maintaining our dividend policy to pay between 40% to 50% of the net income to shareholders. Moving on to page 16, Befesa has entered into a new cycle of low CapEx and growing earnings, which results in a strong free cash flow generation growth and shareholder value creation.
During the last years, we have improved our international exposure of the company to a truly global player, which did not come without the required investment. This step is now concluded, and we are now entering to a cycle of structurally lower CapEx requirement, below €80 million per year, alongside the earnings growth from the concluded investment in the past.
This results in a stronger free cash flow from now onwards. After three years of negative total cash flow, 2025 last year marked an inflection point, and we anticipate our total cash flow to follow a positive trajectory, reflecting the company's improved earnings growth and stronger underlying cash generation.
As I already mentioned, we aim to keep leverage below 2 times for the coming years, enabling grating optionality in future capital allocation decisions. Now, back to Asier on outlook and growth.
Asier Zarraonandia
Thank you, Rafa. Moving on to page 18, 2026 guidance.
The first half of the financial year 2026 was in line with our expectations. We expect 2026 to be another year of earnings growth and confirm our guidance for the full year.
On EBITDA level, we continue to expect to the end of the year between €250 million and €270 million, which translates into a growth between 3% and 11%. We expect total CapEx in the year to be around €70 million.
On the back of an expected growth in operating cash flow between 1% and 9%, this will enable us to further reduce leverage to around 2 from last year's level of 2.3 or to around 2 times by the end of the year. Moving on to page 19, going through the main elements of our outlook for fiscal year 2026.
We expect the steel dust volume in Europe to remain at solid levels, and the US to growth, as we are already seeing in H1, driven by new contracts with the steel producers. In the rest of the world, steel dust volumes are expected to develop broadly in line with last year.
Salt slag is expected to mainly broadly stable volumes compared with the second part of 2025, enjoying some tailwind from higher collection fees. The metal margin for secondary aluminum is expected to improve gradually over the course of the year, particularly in the H2.
We are already seeing an improvement in the business environment in the second quarter, which makes us confident about a further recovery in second part of the year. For energy cost, we expect a mixed development in 2026, with coke price and electricity broadly stable and natural gas prices increasing in Europe.
General inflation is expected to be a headwind due to ongoing high energy and fuel prices. This impacts maintenance, auxiliary material, and personal costs across all regions, creating a negative pressure point in the cost structure.
We should be aware of that developments in the Middle East are still ongoing and have already impacted on energy and fuel prices, and as such, overall inflation. We anticipate that this inflationary environment will remain for the rest of the year.
As explained by Rafa, due to ongoing tightness in the zinc concentrate market, the benchmark treatment charge settled at $85 in 2026 was slightly up compared to last year $80. Hedging activity for zinc remains stable, with the average 2026 2026 hedge price set at approximately $2,990 per metric ton, consistent with 2025 levels, suggesting a neutral hedging contribution.
FX is expected to continue to be a headwind for the remaining of the year. Total CapEx for the year will be around €70 million, with around €45 million for regular maintenance, and the remaining for growth in the expansion of Bernburg.
We continue following our disciplined capital allocation strategy and ongoing focus on free cash flow generation. We therefore anticipate further deleverage, with net leverage declining to around 2 times by year-end.
Moving on to page 20, our expansion project in Bernburg. Execution of the project is on track to start production at the end of August.
Bernburg will add 60,000 tons of capacity to our existing recycling capacity of 200,000 tons. We diversify our customer base towards end markets with lower demand volatility.
Given the planned production starting late August, the contribution to Bernburg will mostly be visible in the fourth quarter of 2026. Moving on to page 21, about the expansion of the European electric arc furnace steel industry.
Europe is accelerating its transition towards electric arc furnace steelmaking, largely driven by the decarbonization targets and supportive policy frameworks. Between 2026 and 2030, in total, 13 new electric arc furnace projects were announced to come online.
This represents more than 22 million tons of new electric arc furnace capacity, which equates to a 24% increase compared to the existing 90 million tons of electric arc furnace capacity in Europe. As a result, EAF penetration is expected to rise from the current 45% over the next 5 to 10 years, supported both by these new projects and the progressive replacement of blast furnaces.
Given our strong market position, established customer relationships, and ongoing business development efforts, Befesa is strategically well-positioned to capture the significant volume growth expected from this structural shift. We are already engaged in advanced negotiation with key customers to support this expansion phase in the coming years.
Moving on to page 22, the development of the US steel industry. In the US, electric arc furnace steel capacity is projected to increase by more than 25% by 2028, equivalent to around 21 million tons of new steelmaking capacity.
This expansion translates into over 300,000 tons of additional steel dust, creating a substantial opportunity for our steel dust recycling operations in the US. With a total installed capacity of 650,000 tons, we are well-positioned to leverage this growth.
Our goal is to progressively ramp up utilization from below 70% last year to around 90% by 2028 as new electric arc furnace capacity comes online. The combination of our modernized Palmerton facility, long-term customer relations, and strategic geographical footprint near key steel producers ensures that Befesa is ready to capture this next phase of growth in the US market.
In summary, we are pleased with our first half performance, which keeps us firmly on track to deliver another year of earnings growth. Our outlook remains unchanged, and we are reaffirming our guidance of €250 million to €270 million of EBITDA for 2026, equivalent to growth of 3% to 11%.
We remain focused on disciplined execution and are confident in our ability to deliver on our commitments for the year. Thank you very much.
Rafael Pérez
Thank you, Asier. We will open the line for the Q&A session.
Operator
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their touchtone telephone.
You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press * and 2.
Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press * and 1 at this time.
The first question comes from Adahna Ekoku from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Adahna Ekoku
Hi, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question.
I've got one on secondary aluminum. Utilization and metal margins improved year-over-year, but EBITDA was still slightly below last year.
Could you just walk through what's preventing this improvement in pricing and utilization from converting into stronger EBITDA? Is it scrap costs or kind of contracts or lags we should be aware of?
Asier Zarraonandia
Hello. Thank you, Adahna.
The fact is that the secondary aluminum, what we have is sometimes some delay to apply the increase of pricing in our sales comparing with the pricing to the scrap purchases. Normally what we are watching is that the margins are going to increase.
Basically, we think that the Q3 is going to be more strong than the Q2, and especially the Q4 by the contracts that we have in a quarterly basis. Yes, the volumes are still under pressure, but the margins clearly are going to be recovered.
That's why we are very confident that in the second part, the difference with last year is going to be very remarkable.
Adahna Ekoku
That's very clear. Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Lasse Stüben from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Lasse Stüben
Hi, good morning. You mentioned the build-up in the inventory on the WOX or in the production of WOX.
Can you just mention kind of what drove that in the quarter and is this something we should expect to reverse in Q3? Then I guess, yeah, a follow-up on the aluminum salt slags.
Just trying to understand the dynamic between the FNB price and your kind of revenue generation. I think the FNB price was up close to 30% in the second quarter, but your revenues in aluminum salt slags are only up, I think, about 9%.
Just trying to understand the kind of dynamics there. Then finally, could you give a brief update also on the US smelting asset in terms of how the cost-savings program is going and what we should expect in terms of EBITDA contribution for this year?
Thank you.
Rafael Pérez
Thank you, Lasse. The inventory built up in WOX, in a regular situation, everything that we will treat as steel dust and produced WOX will be sold to customers.
Every often, it happens that we have processed all the steel dust and we are filling a ship and a vessel, and it doesn't arrive to the customer, we don't accrue the sale, okay? It's a timing effect.
As you say very well, in Q3, we will see the reversal. It's just a pure timing thing.
Asier Zarraonandia
With regard with the aluminum salt slags and the and the evolution in comparison with the FNB, basically we have to consider that the aluminum is just one of the parts of the incomes that we have in the business together with the fees and the and the sale of the salt. Depending the weight, it's not a direct correlation for the increases of the income.
Having said that, we have part of that as well in a tooling basis that with the develop the the an income fee. We are always or are very clear benefiting for the for the rally in the FNB, which now is is more normalized.
I think that the work that we have done increasing the fees for the year together with these, peaks and, moreover, with the with the normalized production, will make that the salt slag business is going to be probably in the highest results that ever had, no? With regard to the US US smelting, nothing to add that we are telling in the last in the last calls.
The plant is running very stable. The costs are, finally, as we announced couple of calls ago, controlled, and the production is stable, providing by the by the WOX availability for our kiln productions.
Having said that, the US operation, in general, are going even better that we were expecting. Despite the first quarter that was, some deliveries on the steel production in general and then sent less dust, now is in the levels that we expected with the new contracts.
The whole US business is going to contribute with a very nice profit.
Lasse Stüben
Thank you.
Asier Zarraonandia
Thank you, Lasse.
Operator
The next question comes from Juan Rodriguez from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Juan Rodriguez
Hi. Good morning.
Thank you for taking the questions. I have two on my side, if I may.
The first one is on guidance. After the first half-year performance, you already almost reach 11% for the first half and you already signaled that you expect an even stronger second half.
What are you pending in? We know there's a lot of macro uncertainty, but would like to better understand how you keeping this conservative stance on the guidance.
Then the second one is on the development of EAF expansion in Europe that you signal on slide 21. How are you viewing this on a planned point of view?
On the short term, are you expecting to further increase utilization rates and then increase capacity maybe from the 2029-30s? What would be needed on your side for discussions to move forward?
That is to increase capacity. How we expect to do it on leverage level?
Should we keep the leverage target of around 2 times once the new volumes or new capacities is engaged? Thank you.
Asier Zarraonandia
Thank you, Juan. The guidance.
Yes, we have in the first half 11% and everything comes to think that we are going to be from the midpoint to the high part of the guidance. This is basically where we consider now.
Of course, depends on the evolution on all the items which affect, we see zinc prices and general inflations and so on. We do think that we are really on track to go to the high part of the guidance.
This is how we see this today, right? Regarding the Europe, well, Europe basically we are in full capacity with the maintenance.
The difference among the quarters is depends sometimes when you do the maintenance stoppages. Increase capacity in a medium term comes from the on hand of the Recytech of the French plant, increased capacity through the construction of a second kiln there.
Timing, well, I think that is something like in the '28, '29 probably could fix with the delivery of the steelmakers projects. Again, we are monitoring this in order to have the plant very close to enter into production very close with the steel production plants, new plants coming into
Rafael Pérez
the line. On leverage, Juan, basically, as we have said many times, no, we are fully committed to keep the leverage below 2 times over the coming years.
If you consider leverage as part of our capital allocation priorities, we have very clear priorities. On the first hand is maintenance CapEx, which will be around €45 million per year.
Then it's leverage. We want to keep the leverage, and we are committed to keep the leverage below 2 times.
Then is growth projects. As Asier mentioned, the only growth project that we have pending to invest is the expansion of Recytech to capture the growth in Europe.
Then any excess cash that we may have in the balance sheet will be distributed to shareholders as an extra dividend or share buybacks, okay? Clearly, we can invest in Recytech and yet keep the leverage below 2 times.
Juan Rodriguez
Quite useful. Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Olivier Calvet from UBS. Please go ahead.
Olivier Calvet
Yes, hi. Good morning, Asier and Rafa.
Thanks for taking my questions. I have maybe a follow-up on secondary aluminum EBITDA for this year.
I think you previously said something about €10 million as an expectation. Do you think this is still realistic?
Can you maybe talk about the exit margins you had in secondary alu, perhaps in June? Second question would be for you, Rafa, just on the hedges, if you could remind us what you've done incrementally in the second quarter.
Obviously, you're extending the hedges to early '29, but just if you could refresh us on where you were before. Thirdly, just on steel dust utilization, it'd be helpful if you could talk again about the utilization levels you saw, but specific to the second quarter by geographies, as your comments were mostly on H1, if I'm not mistaken.
Thanks.
Asier Zarraonandia
Thank you very much, Olivier, for the question. In terms of the secondary aluminum and the idea of EBITDA, I think that €10 million was named with thinking in a good part of the guidance, helping us to get up to that part.
We still think that is possible, perhaps even a little bit more, but in that range, probably something manageable at the levels of the margins and production expected for the last part of the year, no? Regarding the hedging, Rafa.
Rafael Pérez
On hedging, Olivier, basically what we have done in the last quarter is to extend the hedging until January 2029. Before that, we had the hedging until July 2028.
Basically, we have taken the opportunity to hedge and to cover the second half of 2028, okay, taking the opportunity of the rally in the zinc price. Basically, the second half of that year.
Now we're focusing on the first quarter of 2029. That, as I said, that provides 30 months of visibility of prices, and this is made at a $3,100 per ton, which is record high for the company.
On utilization, Asier will comment.
Asier Zarraonandia
I think the utilization, the idea is that we will move forward or increase the utilization rate gradually for the last years. Last year, we finished in 69%.
I think this year probably could be in the level of 76%, 77%, driven basically by US. Then probably we move forward as well, depending of the confirmation of contracts in '27.
The idea is to come to all the markets, stay above 85% in 3 years, and this is well depending more on US. As I said before, in US, we are now 75%, sorry, yes, 74%, and this is a remarkable 11% more than the last year.
If we follow like that, I think that ending this year in 76%, 77% would be a good level to go further with the increase of utilization levels.
Olivier Calvet
Sorry, just the 76%, 77%, you're talking about the US or?
Asier Zarraonandia
No, and both, US Q2 and by casualty, we are thinking in the total utilization rate for the forecast of the year for the total business in that level, too.
Olivier Calvet
Okay. If I can just follow up on that, maybe just the Asia part of the business, do you expect this to be sort of flattish in terms of utilization?
By that Turkey and South Korea. Do you think that's going to be at similar utilizations level as last year or you were flagging sort of weak volumes in Turkey?
Asier Zarraonandia
No, I think it's quite similar, yeah. It's quite similar.
I think it's more or less the same level. Even including China, because there are not improvement there.
China, well, is not a big contribution, but in terms of production, it will similar. Turkey and Korea, I think it will be finally in the year the same level of last year, slightly, well, up and down, but it's basically the same level.
Flattish.
Olivier Calvet
Thanks.
Asier Zarraonandia
Thank you, Olivier.
Operator
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press * and 1 on your telephone. The next question comes from Fabian Piasta from Jefferies.
Please go ahead.
Fabian Piasta
Hi. Good morning, gentlemen.
Thanks for taking my questions. I've got three.
The first question is on maintenance shutdowns. I think these were fewer in the second quarter.
Do you have any visibility for the remainder of the year, potentially the phasing, rather Q3 or Q4, and how much these maintenance shutdowns would be as a percentage in the full year as compared to the ones that we've already seen? The second one is on CapEx.
New CapEx cycle of just below €80 million. For 2026, we can expect maintenance plus Bernburg, and then for 2027, 2028, just below €80 million in total for the Recytech brownfield.
Is this then going to decline towards €45 million maintenance in 2029 or is there anything else on the plate that you already see? The third one would be the Bernburg expansion, you referred to a €6 to €7 million EBITDA run rate.
Is that only for the incremental piece with the beverages cans or is that as a total to be understood? Thank you very much.
Asier Zarraonandia
Thank you, Fabian. Interesting question.
Maintenance shutdown, well, traditionally, and this year is not different, the Q1 is the lower level production because we try to accommodate to the stoppage of winter in Christmas and January of the steelmakers across all the geographies. Q2 is a good reference.
We have still some stoppages in Europe and some in US as well. It's a good reference for the Q3 that we do hope the same level of maintenance that Q2.
Perhaps we expect a little bit more production in Q3 than Q2, but around similar quantities. The Q4 is, as always, and we can confirm, that is the period where we have less stoppages and is going to be higher in a range of 10% of something like that or 10% to 15% more production at the end of the year.
This is something that we are doing in the last year, and if nothing special like some unscheduled stoppages or whatever is happening, and this year is not going to be different. That's why we think that the second part of the year is going to be strong because based on the normal level that we are having in Q3 with those maintenance stoppages and the highest utilization rate that we hope in Q4.
Rafael Pérez
On CapEx, Fabian, basically, you summarized well. We expect over the coming years a cap in CapEx of €80 million, and that is €45 million for maintenance CapEx, recurring CapEx to maintain our asset base.
Then the the only additional growth project that we have in the pipeline is the expansion of our operations in France to capture the growth of the US of the European market, as Asier explained. That will be a roughly €60 million total CapEx investment.
If you divide that into 2 years, that is a €30 million per year on top of the €45 million. That's why we said, okay, maximum €80 million of total CapEx over the coming years, considering the expansion in in Recytech.
Beyond that, at the moment, we haven't got anything on the pipeline. Obviously, we're monitoring many markets, but as we have already said, we are keeping our commitment to maintain discipline in capital allocation.
Part of that is our growth projects. If we don't invest in new projects, we obviously will generate a a very healthy free cash flow that we can distribute to shareholders.
Asier Zarraonandia
With your third question, Fabian, the, yeah, €6 to €7 million is what that we expect the contribution for the increased capacity at the higher rate utilization. This is basically what we still wait, and it's the whole capacity in the terms that the main capacity utilization is going to come for food business more than the automotive, but at the end, the full capacity will come with all together.
Yes, we still think that €6 to €7 million is possible with higher rate utilization that we have to confirm, well, we're coming more to '27 and see what the market is. The number is there, yes.
Fabian Piasta
That's great. Thank you very much.
Asier Zarraonandia
Thank you, Fabian.
Operator
The next question comes from Anis Zgaya from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.
Anis Zgaya
Yes, thank you very much for taking my question. Good morning, gentlemen.
I have only one question is on the US steel dust volumes, which increased strongly by 33% in Q2. I'm wondering how much of this growth came from new contracts and what utilization rate do you expect for the US operation now at year-end '26?
More broadly, could you provide the expected utilization rate split by geography for the total group? Thank you.
Asier Zarraonandia
Thank you for the question. Basically, the US market is coming from the new contracts, as expected.
We are not seeing a very high increase in the normal production rates for the rest of the customers itself. I do think that the economy, in general, in US and Europe and other countries is not booming.
Basically, the production is in the level, no? The what's seen is different that the Q1 came lower than expected because the starting for the steelmakers, they took more time to not only the new contract, but the rest coming some delays in the reopening of the year.
For the rest of the year in US in particular, we see the Q3 and Q4 very similar to the levels that we have seen in the Q2. This is the idea.
For the rest, as I say, Europe is in maximums, Asia probably is flatting, and the US is coming to 75%. In total, we do hope that the capacity utilization at the end of the year for the steel dust business will be around 76%, 77%.
Anis Zgaya
Thank you very much.
Operator
The next question comes from Lars Vom-Cleff from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Lars Vom-Cleff
Yes, thank you very much. Good morning.
Two questions left, and I would ask them one by one, if I may. I heard you saying you rather expect to end the year in the upper end of your guidance range.
What would be the biggest risks to achieve that?
Asier Zarraonandia
Is the key question here. Thank you, Lars.
Yes, I said that. If the conditions are like we see now with the zinc prices in a good level, with the rest of the costs and so on, nothing really being crazy from now on, with the margin expecting in the recovery aluminum, yes, we see that we are comfortable in that part of the range.
This is the idea. Of course, everything has to fix it, but we don't see now a very big tailwind that can to that we are going to be below the midpoint.
This is the idea that we have that. Hopefully, I have not to tell other thing in the Q3 results, but at the end of the day, is how we see now and we are really optimistic that we can get this part of the guidance.
Lars Vom-Cleff
Perfect. Then you just mentioned secondary aluminum again.
Impressive. The secondary aluminum utilization rate rose by 290 basis points in Q2 to 75.3%.
Could this partly also reflect the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East currently constraining primary aluminum production? If so, is there a risk that utilization rates normalize lower if Iran and the US reach a resolution and might more primary aluminum comes to the market again?
Asier Zarraonandia
I think that the relation between primary aluminum and secondary aluminum sometimes is not so obvious, right? The secondary aluminum is more in geographical zone.
In our case, is for what happens in Europe, and the volumes clearly depends or rely on the automotive productions in Europe. It's true that whatever happens in Middle East affects basically to the aluminum primary prices, that what's happened in a month ago or two months ago.
This is a reflection on the prices on the free market bulletin and at the market value. It's not a big correlation or a very clear correlation at the end of the day.
For us, the aluminum is more in connection with the volumes that we do hope because the contract in place, and again, the margins which are coming very more strong in the second part of the year.
Lars Vom-Cleff
Understood. Many thanks.
I'll go back to the line.
Asier Zarraonandia
Thank you, Lars.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Rafael Pérez for any closing remarks.
Rafael Pérez
Thank you all for your questions. You can also contact the Investor Relations team of Befesa for any further clarification.
We will now conclude the conference and the Q&A session. Let me remind you that you can find the webcast and the dial-in details to access the recording of this conference call in our website.
Thank you very much to all of you, and have a good day.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference.
You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.
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