JetBlue Airways Corporation

JetBlue Airways Corporation

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 28, 2026

Operator

Good morning, everyone. My name is Alexandra.

I would like to welcome everyone to the JetBlue Airways second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. I would now like to turn the call over to JetBlue's Director of Investor Relations, Koosh Patel.

Please go ahead, sir.

Koosh Patel

Thanks, Alexandra. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2026 earnings call.

This morning, we issued our earnings release and a presentation that we will reference during this call. All of those documents are available on our website at investor.jetblue.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.

In New York to discuss our results are Joanna Geraghty, our Chief Executive Officer; Marty St. George, our President; and Ursula Hurley, our Chief Financial Officer.

During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements about our outlook, strategy, and future performance. These statements are based on our current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for information about risk factors that could cause those differences. These statements speak only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them.

We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings materials and available on our investor relations website.

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Joanna Geraghty CEO.

Joanna Geraghty

Thank you, Koosh. Good morning, and thank you for joining JetBlue's second quarter 2026 earnings call.

Before we begin, I want to recognize our crewmembers for their outstanding work throughout a particularly challenging July. Despite extremely difficult, unpredictable convective weather, coupled with ongoing ATC staffing constraints, our team has shown incredible dedication to our customers and each other.

I'm especially appreciative of the many customers who have taken the time to recognize our crewmembers' professionalism, compassion, and dedication during these very challenging operations. Their performance reflects the very best of JetBlue.

It has been two years since we announced JetForward. During the second quarter, we once again demonstrated our ability to execute and deliver results, even as we continue to strengthen our foundation for the long term.

Through JetForward, we are building a more reliable operation, a more compelling customer offering, and a more focused network, while reinforcing our path to sustained profitability. Our ongoing work across each JetForward priority move enabled our crewmembers to execute during another quarter marked by a complex operating environment, including elevated fuel prices, significant thunderstorm activity, and periods of airspace constraints.

Delivering a reliable operation remains foundational to JetBlue. Despite these challenges, the investments that we've made in technology and process improvements are driving better performance.

Fort Lauderdale is another clear example of our progress. We've grown rapidly and are seeing very strong customer demand for our added flying.

We're working closely with the Broward County Aviation Department, who shares our common goal of building a stronger and more diversified portfolio of destinations for South Florida travelers. We're very thankful for our long-standing partnership with the airport, as we work together to formalize additional gate leases this fall.

We made changes to enhance our customer experience, which in turn improved our revenue performance. Second quarter RASM beat the midpoint of our revised and previously raised guidance.

We were able to capitalize on strong demand across nearly all products and geographies, even as JetBlue and industry fares moved higher throughout the quarter. Fuel prices alone do not determine our earnings trajectory.

What matters is how effectively we respond. Throughout the quarter, we made adjustments to both pricing and capacity in response to higher fuel costs.

These actions, along with resilient customer demand, enabled us to recover fuel costs more quickly than we originally anticipated. Based on the strength of demand and the traction from our commercial actions, we achieved nearly 50% fuel recapture in the second quarter, exceeding our expectation of 40% or more.

Looking ahead, sustained demand strength gives us greater visibility into the second half, even as fuel prices remain very volatile. Assuming demand strength persists, we continue to expect to achieve 100% fuel recapture by early 2027.

Following a very strong early start to the year, we withdrew our full-year outlook last quarter after the external environment changed dramatically over a short period of time, even though our confidence in the underlying business remained strong. Since then, demand has remained resilient, our commercial actions have proven effective, and fuel prices moderated, as expected, from the elevated levels we saw in April, recent volatility notwithstanding.

Collectively, we believe these developments provide sufficient visibility to re-establish our full-year outlook. We now expect full-year operating margin of approximately -2% to -5%, an improvement from our very challenging first half of the year.

The midpoint of our guidance implies a significant inflection in our profitability, with second-half operating margin approximately 3.5 points better year-over-year. We widened our operating margin range given the recent fuel volatility, but still believe that pricing will continue to help offset higher fuel prices if they remain elevated.

Despite this second-half earnings improvement, we plan to continue to maintain a conservative capacity profile given that the geopolitical backdrop remains fluid and fuel remains volatile. JetForward is the key driver of our expected improvement.

In the first half of 2026, we delivered $165 million of incremental EBIT from JetForward, bringing the cumulative benefit to $470 million. The most important takeaway is that JetForward is doing exactly what we said it would do.

We established a clear plan, committed to measurable milestones, and we're delivering against them. While there have undoubtedly been quarters influenced by factors outside of our control, from weather to macro, the underlying trajectory of the business continues to improve, and our confidence in the years ahead continues to grow.

We are on track to deliver at least $310 million of incremental JetForward EBIT in 2026, and several of our largest initiatives are still ahead of us or in early ramp, including BlueSky and Blue First, our new domestic first class product. As those initiatives continue to ramp, we expect 2027 to mark a return to sustained operating profitability, an important milestone toward annual positive free cash flow.

Looking further ahead, we expect Blue First and other JetForward initiatives to continue ramping into 2028 and beyond, helping to drive JetForward annual incremental EBIT to approximately $1.2 billion and a return to positive pretax margin. Based on this planned trajectory, we expect to achieve 2028 EPS of at least $1 per share, assuming continued demand strength and an average $3 per gallon jet fuel price in 2028.

As I look ahead, our priorities and commitments are clear: taking care of our people so they can deliver their best, executing JetForward, restoring sustained profitability, improving free cash flow, and strengthening our balance sheet. Our board and leadership team are confident that this disciplined focus is the right path, the best path, to create long-term shareholder value while building a stronger, more resilient JetBlue.

With that, over to you, Marty.

Marty St. George

Thank you, Joanna, and thanks again to our crewmembers for their execution in the quarter. Our second quarter results reflect continued demand for the distinctive JetBlue product and traction from our JetForward initiatives.

We delivered strong revenue performance in the second quarter, with revenue increasing 10.9% year-over-year, driven by robust consumer demand across our network. Importantly, demand held up well even as fares moved higher, and we did not see material signs of elasticity.

Demand strength was robust throughout the booking curve, including close-in demand, and that strength has carried into the third quarter. Premium products, including Mint and Even More, continue to perform exceptionally well.

Importantly, our main cabin also saw meaningful improvement, benefiting from a healthy pricing environment and resilient leisure demand. Turning to Fort Lauderdale, given our existing focus city there, Spirit's exit represented one of the most significant strategic opportunities JetBlue has seen in many years.

By this winter, we expect to operate more than 150 daily flights from Fort Lauderdale, our largest schedule ever from the airport, including our largest Mint presence as well. Earlier this month, we launched a more structured bank schedule with two southbound and two northbound banks designed to better connect customers to the Caribbean and Latin America.

The capacity is ramping well, and customer response to our added flying has been very positive. In the second quarter, Fort Lauderdale RASM was up 11%, even with capacity growth of nearly 40%.

Turning to loyalty, refreshed premium cards and strong demand for Blue House benefit supported nearly 40% growth in new card acquisitions and 21% higher loyalty remuneration for the quarter. We expect further momentum when our second Blue House lounge opens in Boston in August.

In addition, South Florida was a standout contributor to our loyalty results, with TrueBlue enrollments growing 44% and co-brand acquisitions more than doubling year-over-year. This momentum reinforces our confidence that the investments we've made in loyalty will create value well beyond the quarter and keep us on track to deliver meaningful sequential growth in loyalty revenue over the coming quarters.

We want to thank Barclays for their continued partnership. As the only major co-brand issuer without a competing proprietary travel card, Barclays is uniquely aligned with JetBlue and focused on growing the long-term value of our portfolio.

More broadly, the earnings progress we've been delivering reflects our ability to better monetize demand across the network through JetForward. We've modernized our revenue management capabilities, which improves our ability to optimize premium products like Mint, better manages both local and connecting demand across our network, and unlocks new merchandising capabilities.

We've added new ways to pay, and now TrueBlue members can redeem TrueBlue points for Even More seats. Yesterday, we announced a simpler shopping experience that makes it easier for customers to compare our onboard experience and fare options, expands customer choice, and creates more opportunities for customers to experience our premium products.

Our BlueSky partnership is another important contributor. It continues to ramp, and reached another milestone in May with the introduction of reciprocal loyalty benefits for early members.

This further benefits customers and enhances their access to the broader network made available through the partnership. Finally, Paisly continues to be an important part of our broader growth strategy, and engagement is growing as customers use JetBlue Vacations and TrueBlue Travel to book more of their end-to-end travel.

As part of BlueSky, Paisly recently began distributing United's car rental products through the Paisly-powered MileagePlus travel site, and we look forward to powering their hotels later this year. Beyond the BlueSky partnership, Paisly continues to explore additional airline and non-airline partnerships as it continues to grow.

BlueSky and Blue First are two of our most meaningful commercial initiatives, and we are still in the very early innings of realizing the associated margin benefits. Blue First is the largest individual JetForward initiative.

It represents an important next step in evolving JetBlue's product offering, allowing us to better serve customers looking for a premium experience while strengthening unit revenue over time. We plan to share additional product details and to launch sales in the fall.

We remain on track to complete the majority of our retrofit work by the end of 2027, and expect Blue First full revenue and margin contribution to continue building in 2028 and beyond. At run-rate, we believe Blue First will support meaningful unit revenue and RASM expansion, including nearly 5 points of RASM growth.

These initiatives reinforce our confidence in JetForward and the earnings power we are building across the business. Turning to our outlook, we're starting the third quarter from a strong position, with substantially more of the booking curve exposed to today's favorable pricing environment.

With that context, we expect the strong revenue trends we saw in the first half to continue into the third quarter. We're guiding third quarter capacity growth of 3% to 6% year-over-year and RASM to 12.5% to 16.5% year-over-year.

For the full year, we expect capacity to increase 1.5% to 3.5% year-over-year and RASM to increase 10% to 12.5% year-over-year, supported by healthy demand, a strong yield environment, and continued execution on JetForward. While July has been more operationally challenging, our outlook assumes third quarter completion factor returns to historical levels the balance of the quarter.

We remain optimistic about our revenue trajectory for the balance of the year. Since 2019, prices across the broader economy have increased meaningfully.

Yet airfares started the year down in real terms by approximately 30%. This gives us confidence that the pricing environment that we are seeing now is sustainable.

Even with a strong pricing environment, our capacity plan remains highly disciplined. In the second half, we're concentrating our incremental growth in Fort Lauderdale, where we've seen a compelling opportunity to strengthen our network and deepen our relevance with leisure customers.

As a result, all of our net capacity growth is expected to come from Fort Lauderdale, while capacity across the rest of the network is expected to be down year-over-year. In mid-July, as fuel prices increased, we decided to reduce our fourth quarter schedule by approximately 1 point, reinforcing our commitment to growing only where we can see the strongest returns.

Our plan is to remain disciplined, and we plan to revisit capacity again as needed. At LaGuardia, we've recently secured additional slots and are excited for the opportunity to build a more robust schedule to Florida for our most loyal customers in both New York and down south.

While we currently operate from Terminal B, we continue to seek a return to the lower-cost and more convenient Marine Air Terminal. In conclusion, we have a strong commercial backdrop in place, and our revenue and network initiatives further strengthen our conviction in our outlook for the second half of 2026 and beyond.

With that, I will hand it over to Ursula to walk through fuel, costs, and our financial performance in more detail.

Ursula Hurley

Thank you, Marty. The revenue progress and network actions Marty shared reflect our strong execution and provide us a clear path through the balance of the year.

Of course, we continue to manage the business conservatively given the potential for further volatility in fuel prices. Against that backdrop, we remain focused on disciplined execution across the levers within our control.

Our capacity, pricing, and cost actions helped offset nearly 50% of the higher fuel costs in the second quarter, while preserving our flexibility to remain nimble as conditions evolve. Turning to CASM ex-fuel, we delivered second quarter performance ahead of our guidance range.

CASM ex-fuel increased 2.4% year-over-year, approximately 1.5 points better than the midpoint of our guidance, reflecting strong execution as well as a shift in timing of expenses. Looking ahead, we expect third quarter CASM ex-fuel to increase 2.5% to 4.5% year-over-year.

We continue to expect non-fuel unit cost growth to moderate meaningfully in the second half of the year as JetForward cost savings initiatives take hold. For the full year, we now expect CASM ex-fuel to increase 2% to 4% year-over-year.

Excluding the impact of first quarter weather-related operational disruptions, we remain on track with our initial full-year CASM ex-fuel outlook. This reflects disciplined execution across the business as we continue to offset headwinds while investing strategically in our operation, our crewmembers, and the customer experience.

Turning to fuel, we have used our normal process and timing for marking fuel and acknowledge pricing has been extremely volatile the past few weeks. Given strong customer demand and our ability to adjust capacity, we believe pricing will provide an offset if recent fuel price increases stick.

Using the forward fuel curve at market close on July 10th, we expect fuel price per gallon to be $3.49 for both the third quarter and the full year. We remain focused on fuel optimization, with cross-functional teams increasingly leveraging real-time data and advanced technology to improve efficiency.

Whether it's identifying more efficient routing opportunities in-flight, providing pilots with personalized operational insights, or using predictive planning and ground operation analytics to improve consistency, we're creating a more connected, data-driven approach to fuel management across the airline. Together with our fleet modernization efforts, these initiatives keep us on track to achieve our fuel efficiency improvement goal.

Turning to capital expenditures, we expect third quarter CapEx of approximately $300 million and full-year 2026 CapEx of approximately $850 million, driven primarily by 12 aircraft deliveries this year, the initial spend associated with retrofitting aircraft for Blue First, and the incremental LaGuardia slots we've recently secured. We continue to expect annual CapEx to remain below $1 billion through the end of the decade.

This level of investment supports prudent long-term capacity growth while preserving flexibility and maintaining our focus on generating free cash flow. Turning to the balance sheet, we executed a $500 million aircraft-backed financing transaction in the second quarter, further strengthening our liquidity position.

We ended the quarter with $2.2 billion of cash and investment securities, representing approximately 23% of trailing 12-month revenue, excluding our $600 million undrawn credit facility. We remain committed to maintaining liquidity within our target range of 17% to 20% of trailing 12-month revenue while optimizing our cost of capital.

Should additional financing be required, the amount and timing will depend on how fuel and the macro environment evolves. We would expect to first look to the aircraft-backed transaction accordion, while also evaluating other low-cost opportunities.

We expect to continue to take a disciplined and proactive approach to managing the balance sheet, with a focus on preserving liquidity, reducing interest expense where possible, supporting JetForward, and positioning the business for sustained profitability. I want to be clear that I am very confident in our plan and optimistic about the direction we are heading.

We believe we are reaching a major inflection point in the business. RASM is now expected to be 10-plus points higher than CASM ex-fuel in the second half, and we expect operating margin to improve by approximately 3.5 points year-over-year, demonstrating the meaningful operating leverage we are beginning to realize.

That progress extends beyond 2026. As JetForward initiatives already underway continue to mature and Blue First begins to ramp, we expect to return to sustained operating profitability in 2027 and make meaningful progress towards positive free cash flow.

Looking to 2028, our confidence in the earnings power we are building is reflected in our EPS target of at least $1 per share. After navigating a highly volatile first half of the year and month of July, we look forward with greater visibility and a stronger financial outlook.

The financial roadmap we've outlined today makes clear why we are confident in our plan and why this is the plan we are pursuing. While there is still work ahead, we believe the progress we've made has positioned JetBlue for meaningful earnings acceleration in the second half of the year and a stronger financial trajectory in the years ahead.

We remain firmly focused on restoring sustained profitability, generating free cash flow, strengthening the balance sheet, and creating meaningful long-term value for our shareholders. With that, we are happy to take your questions.

Back over to you, Alexandra.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand.

To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality.

If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.

Your first question comes from the line of Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open, please go ahead.

Oh

Mike Linenberg

yeah, hey. Good morning, everyone.

Marty, I just wanted sort of dig into Fort Lauderdale. I think actually Joanna mentioned about working with the county and being able to secure more leases.

I think you mentioned that as well. How big could you actually get in Fort Lauderdale?

You talk about 150 or 150 more. As you built out that hub, can you just give us some data on just connectivity today versus where it was, local versus connect, and where you actually see it going?

Then I have a follow-up.

Marty St. George

Hey, Mike. Thanks for the question.

We said we're going to be over 150 at the end of 2026, early 2027. We do think there's another tranche of growth that could come in.

I think it's important to note that as a company, we're growing basically low to mid-single digits. We don't have an aggressive growth rate beyond this.

We're extremely excited with where our numbers are right now. Like I say, we've spent a lot of time working with the county to make sure that we have the facilities we need.

It is going to be tough because, especially for international arrivals, that's a constrained airport. I have complete confidence we'll get to where we need to be with the county.

We are building a Terminal 5 there, but that's going to be a 2030 arrival if we're lucky. Again, our results are fantastic.

I'd love to grow faster, but I think what we're doing right now is quite prudent. As far as banks and connectivity, I don't really want to give a number.

It'll be well under 50% because South Florida does have very good local demand. What we're really excited about more than anything is how the banking brings a lot more destinations into the mix in the north.

The example I like to give is Albany. If you look at Boston and New York, we have great access to any leisure destination in the Americas.

You look at a place like Albany, you only went to Lauderdale and Orlando. Now with connectivity in Fort Lauderdale, if you're a customer in Albany, for example, you get access to all of the Caribbean and everywhere we fly in Central and South America.

I think it's really a game changer for TrueBlue as much as it is for the citizens of Fort Lauderdale. Great, thanks.

Then

Mike Linenberg

just my second question to Ursula on I guess the initial phase of a Pratt agreement here. It looks like it's through 2025, presumably I guess that covers two years of disruption.

As I recall, you had highlighted that it was maybe 3 points of margin on a direct basis versus there's also an indirect element. This has got to be one of the biggest Pratt deals out there, and it seems like it's one of the last ones to actually get done.

Although I guess you're going to get compensated for 2026 and beyond. How are we going to see this in the numbers?

How should we look at this? Is this going to be, going forward, some reduction in D&A, some reduction in maintenance expense?

This is a big deal, and it should find its way into the P&L. How should we think about the potential benefits from this?

Thank you.

Ursula Hurley

Good morning, Mike. Thanks for the question.

We are pleased to have an initial settlement complete with Pratt. You're correct, this closes out 2024 and 2025.

80% of the settlement will be a reduction in operating expense between now and the end of 2027, and 20% of it will be a reduction to CapEx. At a high level, about 25% of the settlement will impact 2026, and obviously is included in our guide, and then the remainder will hit 2027.

Mike Linenberg

Great, thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker with JP Morgan. Jamie, your line is now open, please go ahead.

Oh

Jamie Baker

hey, good morning, everybody. Marty, looking for a little bit more color on Blue First.

It obviously took the industry quite some time to monetize the front of domestic cabins, but consumers have adapted. I'm assuming the ramp for JetBlue is going to be much steeper, much quicker than Delta's decade-long journey in this regard.

Further to that, can you begin monetizing with the very first aircraft, or do you effectively have to wait until most of the retrofits are done? I know 2028 is the real ramp to run-rate.

I'm just trying to think of how to layer on any yield benefits in 2027.

Marty St. George

Great. Jamie, thank you.

I will start actually with our expansion of Mint. We were a little bit different when we started Mint versus the rest of the industry.

For many, many years, there was no way to get into the Mint cabin without paying for it. Our job was to basically come up with everyday low prices that would give the most value to customers.

Although we do have limited ways to get into Mint with points right now, we fundamentally believe we can provide a great product at a very reasonable price. I think we have 15 years of experience in the industry monetizing the first class cabin, and I think we expect to take full advantage of all the ways getting into that cabin that our competitors have already demonstrated to be successful.

Actually, we're very excited about it. I think we'll give you more detail on the ramp as we get closer in, but we are very excited to get customer benefits very quickly.

I'll give you the one sneak tip is we're going to have one airplane out there this fall, but probably the first one will not be monetized, but the minute we get to two, we're going to start selling this product on the fleet as it flies.

Jamie Baker

Helpful. Then, Ursula, just following up on your prepared remarks regarding liquidity, given the delay in the move to positive cash flow, how should Mark and I think about the cadence of liquidity against current cash burn, your targets, your options?

We know there's this meeting coming up next week to meet with lenders and creditors. Maybe you could give us some color on that.

Do you intend to raise more liquidity? With loyalty trading over 13% right now, what's sort of your assumed cost of other liquidity options that you referenced if you decide to go down that path?

Thanks in advance.

Ursula Hurley

Appreciate the question, Jamie. First and foremost, our liquidity target is 17% to 20% of trailing 12-month revenue.

I'm extremely pleased with where we ended the quarter, we're at 23%. Obviously, our liquidity needs in the back half of the year are heavily going to depend on the fuel environment.

I was pleased within the second quarter, we executed a $500 million aircraft-backed financing deal. The average rate on that deal was 6.5%.

As part of that deal, the deal has an accordion feature that is $250 million at the 6.5%. If we need liquidity in the second half of this year, our number one priority will be pulling on the accordion.

If we need liquidity above and beyond that given oil, we will look to do additional aircraft financing. I want to also remind everyone across the entirety of our capital structure, our weighted average cost of debt is 6.8%.

We're very focused on cost of capital and the interest expense level that we have on the books, and we're going to be extremely thoughtful with any additional liquidity needs. We do have a normal course of business meeting next week with investors.

This is a consistent approach that we've taken over the last several years. We engage within the quarter with equity and fixed income investors across conferences, non-deal road shows, one-on-ones.

We also historically have done in-person and virtual meetings with senior leadership to better understand the investor perspective and, quite frankly, to communicate the progress that we're making on JetForward. Next week's meeting with fixed income investors, it is ongoing outreach, and we're only going to be discussing what's publicly available in terms of information on the company and JetForward.

We're very much looking forward to the discussion.

Jamie Baker

Thanks, Ursula.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Godyn with Citigroup. John, your line is now open, please go ahead.

John Godyn

Hey, thanks for taking my question. You mentioned that we're at a major inflection point for initiatives, and you've given a lot of great detail for the balance of '26.

I was hoping we could just spend a minute talking more about how things layer on in 2027 and then '28 to ultimately hit the dollar number. I'm not sure if things are getting phased on uniformly, front-end loaded, back-end loaded when we think about '27.

I know Jamie asked about the Blue First retrofit timeline, but I just wanted to kind of square up the numbers more broadly, the cost initiatives, BlueSky, how things are maturing, whatever you're willing to reveal.

Joanna Geraghty

Perfect, John. Thanks.

I'll take that. I think headline, our strategy, it remains unchanged.

This is all about JetForward working. There's really nothing new in the way of initiatives.

What you're seeing is initiatives continuing to mature and build on one another. Into 2027, we expect to deliver $850 to $950 million of incremental EBIT.

After that, BlueSky, some of our cost initiatives, Blue First, continue to mature and become much more meaningful contributors in 2028, particularly Blue First. Obviously, that's the one, the bulk of the fleet will be done through '27, we'll complete it first half or so of '28.

That's really the momentum in terms of those '28 earnings. These initiatives compound in '28 and drive the $1.2 incremental EBIT.

You should think of that basically supporting the roughly $1 of EPS for 2028. One of the reasons why we put that dollar out there is because current consensus doesn't accurately reflect how these initiatives do build over time.

As I said, Blue First in particular, that's the one where we see pretty strong momentum into 2028, and we're hoping that this better aligns the investor framework with the earnings trajectory that we're seeing with these JetForward initiatives. I'll just say all of this does contemplate $3 $3 jet fuel price in 2028.

Then I think we mentioned low to mid-single capacity growth, mid-single digit RASM growth, and low single-digit CASM ex-fuel in '27 and '28.

John Godyn

Great. That was helpful color.

Just to follow up on for 2026, you talked about the meaningful moderation in CASM ex in the second half as initiatives take hold. I was just hoping you could add a bit of color and elaborate there.

Ursula Hurley

Thanks for the question, John. We've been extremely pleased with the team's execution on controllable costs.

If you exclude the Q1 disruptions that we experienced, we've maintained our full-year controllable cost guide. The initiatives within JetForward continue to ramp in the back half of the year.

I think I would point to three areas of focus. We've created and introduced new digital tools across a few different teams: customer support, airports, maintenance, and that's enabling task automation, faster access to information, and just the team is more empowered to make decisions more quickly.

The second area is we're continuing to modernize our technology infrastructure, which is driving greater optimization of cloud usage and infrastructure costs. We're moving to a more scalable, lower cost model within the technology framework.

Then the third is, we're really leaning into data science across a multitude of operational teams across various areas, right? Crew disruption management, improving crew utilization, improving reliability.

That's kind of the third area where we're leaning into. The team's doing a great job in execution, and you're seeing that benefit in the back half of the year, as well as a slight step-up in capacity as well.

Those are the drivers of execution. The last thing I would add is, over the next two years, the ultimate goal is to deliver low to mid-single-digit capacity growth, and as a result, we're going to have a low single-digit CASM ex-fuel.

We believe that that's really foundational to help us achieve the 850 to 950 in JetForward, and then ultimately deliver the at least a dollar EPS in 2028.

John Godyn

That's great, thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Brandon, your line is now open, please go ahead.

Brandon Oglenski

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

Marty, I wonder if you could talk more generally about the pricing environment, especially post-Spirit. I know you talked a lot about Fort Lauderdale, but maybe more generally across your network.

Then the outlook for mid-single-digit annual RASM growth in '27 and '28, that would be pretty significant. I guess a lot of investors are just worried that what is different this time if fuel prices do come down, doesn't the industry ultimately give it back?

Thank you.

Marty St. George

Hey, Brandon. Thanks for the question.

Let me just start by saying air travel is still an incredibly good value. Back to the point we made in the script, on on real basis on a real basis, airfares started '26 down 30% from where they were in 2019.

You will not find any other major commodity in this economy that has that much, decline in their real pricing. Even with the changes that have happened in 2026, we are still well below 2019 levels.

That's point number one. Point number two is, even in a world where we've got an industry, where the, majority of airlines are not profitable, even the profitable airlines are well below their returns that they had in the teens.

I think if you look at the environment we're seeing right now, the lack of elasticity proves that customers actually recognize that it's still a really, really good value. As far as the RASM growth, in '27-'28, it's one of the reasons why in the script I specifically called out the Blue First benefit.

I think if you think of a run-rate Blue First RASM of 5 points, and then back that out of the mid-single-digit number, I think you'll recognize that the RASM growth, the underlying RASM growth absent Blue First, is actually a lot lower than the number we've called out. It's one of the reasons why I called it out specifically, because I knew someone was going to ask this question, and we want to make sure we gave you as much guidance as we could because it is really a unique initiative that we have, very similar to what we saw with Mint.

When we looked at Mint originally 10 years ago, we saw an airline where, coach cabin to coach cabin, we performed extremely well. Our competitors had, 20 points of RASM on top of that that came from their premium cabin that we didn't have, and that's actually the benefit we're going to get with Blue First, which is getting new revenue in the airplane that we didn't have before.

Brandon Oglenski

I appreciate that, Marty. Ursula, just really quick.

It sounds like in the near term, you think your liquidity is fine, and I think you said end of 2027 reaching positive free cash flow. Can you unpack that a little bit?

Ursula Hurley

Listen, clearly we are on a path to deliver a positive operating margin in 2027. The goal will be to deliver positive free cash flow next year.

We've taken the steps to lay out the order book to give us a runway to actually deliver that. I continue to be pleased with JetForward execution, and so that's definitely the goal in 2027.

Brandon Oglenski

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore. Your line is now open, please go ahead.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Hey, thanks. Maybe just to start with where you left off on that last question, on the run-rate of 5 points for Blue First.

When do you think you'll hit that run-rate, and can you quantify maybe in a fourth quarter how much tailwind there would be from this Blue First?

Marty St. George

Let me start by saying fourth quarter '26, it'll be de minimis because it'll be a small number of airplanes that come relatively late. I think it's not a number you should be modeling.

We've got a pretty aggressive schedule in 2027 of installations. The majority of the planes will be done by the end of '27, but it's really going to be into '28 before you see the entire fleet done.

Any hitting of run-rate is going to be late '28 or '29. We're not looking at this as something that's going to accelerate fast as far as run-rate.

We see this as a prudent addition in the revenue sort of portfolio for JetBlue.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Thanks, Marty. That's helpful.

Then, from arms length, if we just look at maybe some of the changes and some of the opportunities that opened up, it feels like you're maybe deemphasizing higher-cost airports and redeploying into lower-cost airports. Maybe just react to that concept.

How far along are you in that transition, and is there any way to quantify the cost tailwind or the margin tailwind once this transition is complete?

Joanna Geraghty

Hey, Duane, I'll take that. We can take offline what the cost tailwind is and calculate that.

I think from a high-level perspective, we're very mindful of the cost to operate at higher-cost airports, and we haven't been quiet about that. It's one of the reasons why we'd love to move back to the Marine Air Terminal at LaGuardia, assuming there will be a lower operating cost there with the slots that we have secured.

With that said, Fort Lauderdale is a great deal, particularly when you compare to Miami. Spirit's liquidation has presented us with a great opportunity to redeploy some of the flying that we see at some of these higher-cost airports into Fort Lauderdale and provide a better experience for customers at a lower price given the differential in cost that we have been able to achieve with operating down there.

It's very front and center. JetBlue was founded on affordable air travel, and we want to make sure we continue to deliver that mission.

It does require us to look very carefully at the places we're flying. When we speak with airport authorities, this is item number one.

While people love the fountains and the artwork, at the end of the day, we need to make sure that these airports are really providing what matters the most to people so that we can continue to pass on low airfares to customers flying us.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Savi Syth with Raymond James. Your line is now open, please go ahead.

Savi Syth

Hey, good morning, everyone. Marty, if I might, on Fort Lauderdale, just another question.

Unit revenue up 11% despite kind of 40% growth is impressive. I'm guessing that's a combination of a drag from the market ramp, but then offset by maybe kind of Spirit exiting.

I'm just kind of curious if that's the right way to think about it and how we should think about then the kind of sequential improvement as those kind of growth matures over the next 6 to 12 months.

Marty St. George

Hey, Savi. Thanks for the question.

I think the experience we had in Fort Lauderdale is somewhat unique for the industry. We have, it's just really for the last 20 years, an airline flying 80, 90 flights a day that disappears overnight.

There was an incredible amount of pent-up demand in Broward County already for travel. I think you can see from our announcement, we've been planning on this for a long time.

We announced it within hours of them shutting down, and we've been really, really excited to try to backfill what would represent the most profitable parts of Spirit if we were to fly it. Clearly, if you look at our results, the capacity is taken very well.

We're basically slightly above system average RASM for this time period on 40% growth. That shows you how fitness to grab at the market.

Now, we added service, we have competitors who added service. There are certainly places where we do continue to see upside, but I'd say the ramp overall was quicker than we thought.

There's certainly upside because there are definitely markets that are starting out sort of more conventionally. I think markets where we were less well known.

Overall, we could not be more bullish about Fort Lauderdale, and we look forward to continuing growth.

Joanna Geraghty

I'll just add other areas beyond just the airfare component. We're well known in South Florida, but not that well known because we haven't had as robust a schedule.

We have an opportunity to really strengthen awareness down there, deepen customer penetration. Then our loyalty program is relatively immature for South Florida, there's, we believe, tremendous upside in delivering a great TrueBlue program.

Obviously looking at lounge in Fort Lauderdale longer term as we work through available spaces. This is very early stages and excited by the opportunity that it presents to JetBlue.

Savi Syth

That's all helpful. Thank you.

If I might, on the Blue First, how many kind of Even More seats and main cabin seats are kind of being offset by it? I'm sure the RASM opportunity is much greater, but I'm just not clear about how much of the other kind of seats you'll be cannibalizing on this.

Marty St. George

We have not released the details of that yet. I think we will later on the year when we actually announce the details of the product.

We're really excited about what the Blue First cabin is going to offer our customers. We will be making some changes to the Even More cabin because one of the points that we had made was that we have incredible pent-up demand from our existing customers for this product.

I think it's fair to say the Even More cabin will be slightly smaller than they are right now. Overall, no matter which experience you choose as a customer, we're excited about the value we're going to offer to customers, whether it's main cabin, Even More, or in Blue First.

Savi Syth

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs. Catherine, your line is now open, please go ahead.

Catherine O'Brien

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the time.

Your 2027 and 2028 high-level assumptions that drive the dollar-plus of EPS in 2028 include mid-single-digit RASM and then low-single-digit CASM. Ursula, I think in your response to John earlier, you mentioned capacity would be low-single-digit, which, correct me if I'm wrong there, and you would be still able to hold CASM ex that low-single-digit inflation.

That's better than your longer-term guidance that you'd need to be growing mid-single to get to low-single CASM. I guess, what's driving that better performance over the next couple years?

Thanks.

Ursula Hurley

Sorry. The growth projections have always been low to mid-single-digit capacity over the next few years.

In that scenario, Katie, we believe we can deliver a low-single-digit CASM ex-fuel growth. In terms of top line, mid-single-digit RASM, these are kind of the high-level inputs that are going to deliver, quite frankly, positive operating margin next year, and then in turn the at least dollar EPS in 2028.

Specific to costs, we have a really strong record of hitting our controllable cost guide. This is just a continued ramp-up of the initiatives.

I mentioned some of them earlier, right? Just around data science, digital tools, modernizing our technology infrastructure.

These continue to grow and impact obviously 2027 and our achievement of the 850 to 950 EBIT in 2027 and then in turn the EPS target in '28.

Catherine O'Brien

Great. That's helpful.

Then just wanted to dig in a little bit more on the new slots in LaGuardia. Obviously back when you were pulling down out of the Northeast Alliance, that was a very different structure.

You had at LaGuardia then. Can you just talk about how maybe the routes, the lower-cost terminal, change how you think about what the margin impact of adding at LaGuardia will be versus the growth you had put up a couple years ago?

Any color there would be helpful. Thanks.

Marty St. George

Katie, to be clear, this is nothing like what we did during NEA. There's basically no comparison whatsoever.

We have a very successful franchise from LaGuardia to Florida, and obviously Florida is a very important destination for metro New York customers. I think we've said that we see this as a chance to bolster our Florida services out of LaGuardia.

We're also working with the port authority and very optimistic and hopeful about being able to get into the Marine Air Terminal. Significantly cheaper cost per enplanement versus what we see in Terminal B.

No fountains, but definitely lower cost, which means hopefully better fares for our customers.

Catherine O'Brien

Really helpful, Marty. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open, please go ahead.

Ravi Shanker

Great. Thanks.

Morning, everyone. Just one follow-up from me, just on the '28 guidance itself.

I get that you guys have cleared an inflection in JetForward, but there's obviously still a lot going on in the world. If we can just kind of give us a little more color on kind of what gave you the confidence in kind of giving us this guide now, versus kind of maybe waiting a little bit longer, and just how detached from the macro these assumptions are.

Thank you.

Ursula Hurley

Maybe I'll take it. At the end of the day, we see the underlying business performing, and we're seeing these JetForward initiatives continuing to gain traction.

As industry revenue trends are improving, and fares are finally beginning to catch up after years of lagging broader inflation. The 2028 EPS guide assumes the current fare is the baseline, we don't assume further acceleration.

Obviously, the ability to recover and recapture higher fuel costs has been a positive in all of this. At the end of the day, as I mentioned, our biggest concern is consensus does not reflect how these initiatives are building over time, and we did not feel that it was fully capturing the impact of Blue First and Blue First ramping.

When you look at the incremental EBIT that's needed to accomplish that 1.2, it's $300 million over the 2027 JetForward numbers. We're going to have that this year alone.

We felt confident that it was the right time to do this. Obviously, if the war in Iran continues and fuel goes up much higher than it is today, that's something that we in the industry would need to adjust for.

This assumes a $3 jet fuel price in 2028. Listen, it's gone up, but it could go down just as easily.

Your guess is as good as mine on that front. In terms of what we control, we feel confident that these JetForward initiatives are working, and it's the cumulative impact of them driving this benefit.

Ravi Shanker

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tom Fitzgerald with TD Cowen. Tom, your line is now open, please go ahead.

Tom Fitzgerald

Hi, everyone. Thanks very much for the time.

Question for Marty on Paisly. You talked about being in conversations with other airlines.

If that comes to fruition, is that contemplated in the guide already, or would that be incremental to an upside to what you've discussed today?

Marty St. George

Hey, Tom. Thanks for asking.

No, it's not in the guide. We did put the benefits of the United relationship in the guide when we updated to 850 to 950, but there's no assumption in here about additional airlines or non-airline partners besides that.

Obviously, if something comes to fruition, we'll be clearly making an update for investors.

Tom Fitzgerald

That's really helpful. Then, great to see the growth in cash remuneration for loyalty.

Just is some that the overall carrot and stick's fly wheel keeps maturing. Do you think that could continue growing at those type of rates, or how do you think about growth in the program from here?

Thanks again for the time.

Marty St. George

Thanks, Tom. We're actually very optimistic about TrueBlue growth, and more importantly, credit card growth.

One thing that is very clear to us is that we are underpenetrated for TrueBlue in Florida. We've had enrollments double, we have the co-brand signups up well into the double digits.

I think that reflects the runway that we see coming ahead of us. I also feel like the addition of the connecting operation in Fort Lauderdale, is going to really help us in our sort of bread-and-butter markets of New England and New York, as far as creating more access to more destinations for a lot of the places, the sort of secondary markets outside of JFK and Boston.

We are really bullish about TrueBlue. I'll go back to the point that I made earlier, which is, we are very fortunate to be working with Barclays.

When they're looking at making an investment, they're not trying to decide whether they want to spend the money on us or they want to spend on their proprietary card, it's all focused on their co-brand partners. We think that's really a great advantage for us, and I think it is being shown by the numbers we're seeing.

Some of our competitors talk about remuneration numbers in their fourth quarter response, no one's got a first digit that's a 2 on it. I think we're really, really bullish.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Please hold. Scott, your line is now open, please go ahead.

Scott Group

Thanks. Good morning.

Ursula, your comment, hey, if fuel ends up a little bit higher, we can offset that with price, and certainly you and the industry have been doing that. Maybe can you just give an update, as fuel has picked up again in July, has any update on you and broader industry, like incremental fare increases, anything like that?

Any color you can add?

Ursula Hurley

I'll start, and then I'll have Marty add on to what he's seeing in the revenue environment. We're pleased in the second quarter we exceeded our fuel recapture.

We achieved 50%. Obviously, in the third quarter, we're going to take advantage of more of the booking curve being at elevated fare levels that have transpired across the sector.

Our fuel recapture number in the third quarter is definitely going to meaningfully step change beyond the 50%. I also said in my remarks that the goal is to at least 100% recapture by early 2027.

Maybe, Marty, over to you just on the revenue environment.

Marty St. George

Sure. Thanks, Ursula, and thanks, Scott.

Listen, let me start by saying that yes, air travel is a very good value. Nobody loves fare increases, but at the end of the day, this is a business where we have to cover our costs.

If you look at the cost structure of the industry absent fuel, versus the period before COVID, the industry costs are up 30%, 40%, and prices haven't come anywhere close to matching that. I think what we're seeing right now is that because of this very, very long period without real price increases in the industry, I think we're finally seeing some price attraction for the industry, and again, still a great value.

We continually do our Uber test, which is $150 from JFK to Midtown and $99 from JFK to Fort Lauderdale. By the way, to go to Midtown, that's one person in a car that costs 50 grand versus $60 million airplane.

It's a fantastic value, and I think customers are seeing that, and it's why we're seeing such a good response to elasticity.

Scott Group

Okay. Then, last one, Ursula, just quickly.

I know you mentioned 75% of the Pratt cost benefit is in 2027. Is there any way to quantify what the CASM benefit is or the dollar benefit of that is?

Ursula Hurley

I mentioned earlier in a Q&A response, the total settlement is $105 million. 80% of that is going to hit operating expense.

So, 25% will hit in 2026, and impacts CASM ex-fuel, and then the remainder will hit in 2027. You should be able to get there.

Scott Group

Thank you. Yep, thank you.

Ursula Hurley

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Didora with Bank of America. Your line is now open, please go ahead.

Andrew Didora

Hey, good morning. Just one last question from me.

Just, Ursula, when we think about the 2028 guidance and CASM being up kind of low single digits, understood that this is probably the item that you have the most color into given your capacity. I guess, what was the framework or kind of what did you include in that number just from a new kind of labor deal perspective over the next 2.5 years, and maybe kind of what type of headwind that presents for CASM embedded in that number?

That's it for me. Thanks.

Ursula Hurley

Listen, at the highest level, our 2028 guide assumes labor assumptions for each of our work groups that we think are market competitive. That is included in our low single-digit CASM ex-fuel assumption in 2028.

In addition to that, it is just the continued ramp-up and benefit of all of the cost initiatives within JetForward. I kind of highlighted the areas earlier around data science, digital tools, technology infrastructure.

It's the combination of those two major inputs that are us generate a low single-digit CASM ex.

Andrew Didora

Thank you.

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Atul Maheswari with UBS. Your line is now open, please go ahead.

Atul Maheswari

Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question.

Your guidance is calling for fourth quarter revenues or RASM to decelerate relatively to the third. That's different to how your peers have guided for fourth quarter.

I'm just trying to understand if there is anything different going on in JetBlue relatively to what your peers might be seeing, and if not, what's the rationale behind why fourth quarter revenue growth would decelerate relatively to the third at JetBlue?

Marty St. George

Hey, Atul. Thanks for the question.

I'll say two things. It's still a RASM growth that's into the teens.

We actually like the RASM growth we have. I think if you were to go dig deep into 2025, you would see that third quarter to fourth quarter, there was a pretty big inflection in the fourth quarter last year.

I think if you look at the macroeconomic impact that we faced, especially as more of a leisure airline versus some of the airlines that were more business, third quarter was really a period that was pretty well impacted, but we saw great acceleration in fourth quarter. We're assuming that we'll have a much more normal curve in fourth quarter 2026 versus fourth quarter 2025.

This is really a question of comps more than on any lack of underlying strength.

Atul Maheswari

Understood. That's helpful.

Then, as my quick follow-up, what's your assumption around industry capacity or competitive capacity over the next few years that's embedded in the mid-single-digit RASM expectations for '27 and '28?

Marty St. George

We're basically looking at the current growth rates we're seeing. I'd call it low to mid-single digits, maybe closer to mid than low, but based on what we're seeing in sort of delivery schedules and stuff like that and retirements, it's slightly higher than our own number, but not dramatically.

Our assumption for JetBlue.

Atul Maheswari

Yeah. Good luck for the rest of the year.

Operator

Thank you. Again, we will conclude today's conference call.

Thank you all for your participation.