Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Kratos Defense & Security Solutions first quarter 2026 earnings conference call.
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.
To ask a question during the session, you will need to press *11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised.
To withdraw your question, please press *11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Marie Mendoza, Senior Vice President and General Counsel. Please go ahead.
Marie Mendoza
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
Thank you for joining us for the Kratos Defense & Security Solutions first quarter 2026 conference call. With me today is Eric DeMarco, Kratos's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Deanna Lund, Kratos's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
Before we begin the substance of today's call, I'd like everyone to please take note of the safe harbor paragraph that is included at the end of today's press release. This paragraph emphasizes the major uncertainties and risks inherent in the forward-looking statements we will make this afternoon.
Please keep these uncertainties and risks in mind as we discuss future strategic initiatives, potential market opportunities, operational outlook, financial guidance, and other forward-looking statements during today's call. Today's call will also include a discussion of non-GAAP financial measures, as that term is defined in Regulation G.
Non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for financial information presented in compliance with GAAP. Accordingly, at the end of today's press release, we have provided a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the company's financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Eric?
Eric DeMarco
Thank you, Marie. Kratos's balanced business model of making internally funded investments, including property, plant, and equipment, and the rapid development and fielding of relevant products for the Department of War, while also generating organic growth, increased profitability, and value for all Kratos stakeholders, is succeeding.
The success is reflected in our Q1 results, including a 1.6 to 1 book-to-bill ratio, a record backlog of $2 billion, an increased opportunity pipeline up to $14 billion, and the $14 billion is after the 1.6 to 1 book-to-bill, reflecting Kratos's accelerating growth trajectory. As Deanna will go through in detail, we significantly exceeded our first quarter forecast across the board, with EBITDA being particularly strong as a result of execution and product delivery mix, with Kratos's microwave electronics, turbine technologies, and unmanned systems businesses each having a particularly strong Q1.
Based on our current program execution and delivery plans, both Kratos's Q3 and Q4 are also expected to have particularly strong profitability, including Kratos's OpenSpace satellite command and control and telemetry tracking and control software deliveries, which are forecasted to be meaningful in both Q3 and Q4. As I will discuss in detail today, with the current geopolitical and threat environment, Kratos's space and satellite business is incredibly well-positioned, including with our OpenSpace software and our globally owned and operated space domain awareness system.
I am not able to provide any details for security and other reasons, but Kratos's satellite business is active across the globe. The business is rapidly accelerating, including as reflected by a 3 to 1 book-to-bill ratio in Q1 for our satellite business.
There are tens of thousands of satellites planned for orbit in the coming years, both blue and red, and Kratos's ground systems and software are the gold standard of the industry. There is a generational recapitalization of the US industrial base underway.
The Department of War is looking to non-traditional defense technology companies like Kratos to play a significant role, and we are committed to doing our part to ensure that the department and our country are successful. Our industry's and Kratos's total addressable market is rapidly expanding, with the fiscal 2027 national security spend currently projected to be $1.5 trillion, an approximate $411 billion increase above 2026.
I will emphasize that there are a very limited number of defense technology companies, like Kratos, that are qualified today with real existing capability and products to address the significant and growing market opportunity. Building military-grade hardware and software, products that must work every time, is hard, and Kratos's recognized capabilities and affordability are competitive differentiators for our company, which is being reflected in our financial performance.
As we have seen, the department is now executing multi-year weapon system production framework agreements, including with several of Kratos's partners on several Kratos-supported programs, including in the missile and air defense system areas, which is good for the country, the industry, and is very good for Kratos. These up to 7-year framework agreements, certain of which are calling for increased production orders of magnitude greater than today's production levels, are providing clear demand signals from the department to industry and what we believe are significant long-term growth opportunities for Kratos.
The department's demand signals are real, they are happening, and Kratos, along with our partners, are participating and stepping up to ensure Department of War success. Kratos, along with other successful defense technology companies in the industry, are making defense industrial base investments now in property, plant, equipment, and facilitization to address this demand and to position our companies for significant future cash flow and additional value generation.
Since our last report to you, the department stated that they intend to spend 2025's entire $156 billion reconciliation bill related to defense in fiscal 2026. This bill, as includes funding for Kratos's Hypersonic, Valkyrie CCA, solid rocket motors, jet engines for drones, missiles and loitering munitions, and other Kratos programs.
This is very important as only approximately $30 billion of the $156 billion had been obligated into April. As a result, we have increased confidence in our business plan and full-year 2026 forecast, and we expect to see accelerating future growth throughout '26 and into '27 with both the funding and spend timing now both in place.
We also have increased confidence in our forecasted year-over-year 100 basis point increase in our EBITDA margins for both '26 over '25 and for '27 over '26, including as a result of expected increasing production and revenue, the resulting leverage on our fixed manufacturing and other fixed costs, and the mix of higher-margin products and software. Simply stated, as we grow, our profit margins are increasing.
Since our last report, we have had several meetings with the Department of War leadership, and we are confident that Kratos's strategy, business plan, and approach are aligned with the department's objectives. I have also had several meetings with congressional leadership on both sides of the aisle, and I am confident that regardless of which party controls congressionally, the future United States national security spend is increasing as it is acknowledged that the global threat profile, it's not partisan and doesn't care who's in charge.
It's there, and both sides are familiar and aware of this. National security priorities include hypersonic systems, propulsion systems, space and satellite systems, unmanned systems, drones, air defense, missile, radar, and counter-UAS systems, and microwave electronics, each are primary business areas and core competency areas of Kratos, and all of which are supported in the planned $1.5 trillion 2027 national security spend.
As a result of Kratos's alignment with the department, increasing funding, and our relevant past performance qualifications, the number of opportunities that Kratos continues to successfully receive and the number of new opportunities that are being presented to Kratos continues to increase, including as reflected in our opportunity pipeline, which now exceeds $14 billion. I will emphasize again that there are not enough qualified defense technology companies, like Kratos, to address the current and expected future weapon system demand of the department.
We are extremely fortunate to have the team that we do, and the uniqueness and scarcity value of Kratos's capabilities is clearly apparent. Kratos's affordability as a technology pillar is an increasing differentiator to both our customers and to our partners, as demonstrated in our ability to rapidly design and engineer relevant products up front for low-cost production at scale.
This is a clear department requirement, including as reflected in the framework agreements, and also as demonstrated by recent and ongoing conflicts. Additionally, Kratos's better is the enemy of good enough, ready to field today, and our first-to-market pillar is aligned with the Secretary's United States Arsenal of Freedom vision and his advocation for companies, like Kratos, to deliver 85% of the solution that exists today and now, not a maybe and potentially unachievable someday in the future 100% solution.
Operationally, our major programs and initiatives remain on track, including on the Marine Corps MUX TACAIR program. We are currently negotiating contractual terms of the expected receipt of what I will refer to as Valkyrie program LRIP Phase 1 this year, and we are moving forward with our plan to increase Valkyrie annual production up to approximately 40 drones annually by early 2028.
Receiving new hypersonic program awards, certain of which we have now been verbally informed that we have been successful on, we have received a separate $1 billion-plus sole-source hypersonic program expansion verbal award, which we now also believe we will be receiving shortly. Since our last report, we have had several successful Kratos hypersonic system missions.
Kratos's hypersonic franchise is expected to be a key growth driver for our company for the next several years. We expect to begin small jet engine LRIP later this year for cruise missiles and powered munitions, and we are planning to produce several thousand engines in 2027 and further increasing this engine production into 2028.
Accordingly, we are pulling together a detailed program plan, including with our suppliers, to ramp up to annual multiple thousand engine production beginning next year, which supply chain we expect to turn on shortly. Kratos small jet engine business is expected to be a significant growth driver for our company, with increased margins for the next several years.
We have also now received a new multi-hundred million dollar directed energy weapon system program with Kratos as the prime. As I mentioned earlier, Kratos's OpenSpace software continues to clearly differentiate Kratos's satellite business with our customers, as OpenSpace is a distributed, virtualized, and open capability system that securely enables real-time processing of RF signal and sensor data at scale in a highly distributed cloud, ground entry point, and edge environments.
Kratos's OpenSpace software platform serves as the core networking capability supporting all Kratos OpenSpace solutions, including satellite C2, earth sensing and observation, space domain awareness, space control, and SATCOM. This is for Kratos's largest business, our space and satellite communication business and our space domain awareness business.
Kratos OpenSpace is a crown jewel of our company, and it's analogous to defense technology company Anduril's Lattice software platform. Kratos satellite business recently won a $447 million US Space Force prime contract for the Resilient Missile Warning and Tracking program, a MEO constellation designed to detect and track ICBM launches in addition to dimmer, maneuvering hypersonic missiles and threats.
This contract award was a significant contributor to the 1.8 to 1 first quarter KGS book-to-bill ratio. This program is part of a broader missile warning and tracking architecture that is being fielded across multiple orbits.
I encourage you to think Golden Dome. On this new prime program award, Kratos will provide the ground system and software to operate the satellites after launch, including sending commands, receiving sensor data, and processing that information for delivery to military operators.
Kratos space and satellite business is expected to be a primary driver of our expected increased revenue and profit margins in Q3 and Q4 of this year, and is also expected for significant growth and margin expansion in 2027 and 2028. Artificial intelligence is also a key element or differentiator of Kratos's space, satellite, and space domain awareness business, in addition to AI also being key to Kratos's unmanned systems business and our jet drones.
Artificial intelligence is helping drive Kratos's business. Additionally, the dual commercial national security use of Kratos's software, hardware, and offerings also continues to differentiate Kratos, including affordability as we spread the research and development over multiple defense and commercial markets.
Additionally, Kratos's dual-use applications also accelerate our speed to market in both rapid technology development and fielding of relevant products as we move fast and efficiently as we are investing our own money. A recent dual-use example since our last report, we now expect to receive a separate new additional industrial gas turbine program for artificial intelligence-related data centers by the end of this year with another well-known global industrial technology company.
Our Hypersonic System Integration Facility, new Anaconda radar program facility, Helios Hypersonic program facility, GEK turbofan engine facility, and Prometheus solid rocket motor initiatives are each tracking to be online either later this year or next, each of which we expect to contribute to continued future Kratos growth and value generation for all of our stakeholders. Closing, the department is providing non-traditional defense technology companies, like Kratos, a generational opportunity in rebuilding the US defense industrial base, building an Arsenal of Freedom, participating in multi-billion dollar multi-year programs, and generating significant value.
Kratos is aggressively participating in the current build and growth phase of the Department of War's rebuild the defense industrial base plan, with Kratos focused on generating an appropriate rate of return for each investment we make, and for expected significant future sustained cash flow generation when the critical mass of production programs is achieved on these initiatives. As I mentioned before, based on the current global threat environment and our congressional meetings, we believe there is bipartisan support for continued increasing future national security spends for the protection of the United States and the deterrence of our enemies.
Deanna?
Deanna Lund
Thank you, Eric. Good afternoon.
As we have included a detailed summary of the first quarter '26 financial performance, as well as the initial second quarter and updated full-year 2026 financial guidance in the press release we published earlier today, I will focus on the highlights in my remarks today. Revenues for the first quarter were $371 million, above our estimated range of $335 to $345 million, which estimate did not include the recently closed Orbit acquisition.
Excluding the impact of the Orbit acquisition, revenues were $357.7 million, above our estimated range, which had included the Nomad acquisition as that transaction was closed at the time we provided our estimate. Q1 '26 revenues include consolidated organic revenue growth of 15.8%, with the largest contributors to the overachievement in our Unmanned Systems, Defense and Rocket Support, Turbine Technologies, and Microwave Products businesses.
Notable year-over-year organic revenue growth was reported in our Defense and Rocket Support, Unmanned Systems, Turbine Technologies, and Microwave Products businesses, with organic revenue growth rates of 45.8%, 30.9%, 20.3%, and 12.3%, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $38.7 million, above the high end of our estimated range of $25 to $30 million, reflecting the contribution from the recently closed Orbit acquisition, as well as the increased volume and a favorable revenue mix.
Unmanned Systems first quarter '26 revenue was up $19.5 million or 30.9% organically, with the increase primarily driven by Valkyrie-related activity. KGS first quarter '26 revenue was up $48.9 million year-over-year from the first quarter of '25, with organic revenue growth of 11.8%, excluding the impact of the recent acquisitions of Nomad and Orbit, which contributed an aggregate of $20.6 million.
First quarter '26 cash flow used in operations was $27.4 million, primarily reflecting the working capital requirements related to the revenue growth impacting our receivables by approximately $28.7 million, and increases in inventory of approximately $14.7 million, and increases in prepaid and other assets of approximately $26.5 million, primarily reflecting prepayment for long-lead materials, as well as investments we are continuing to make related to certain development initiatives in our Unmanned Systems, rocket systems, and space and satellite businesses. Free cash flow used in operations for the first quarter of '26 was $43.1 million, after reflecting funding of $19.9 million of capital expenditures and net of $4.2 million in proceeds from the sale of Valkyries, which were previously reported as company-owned capital assets and classified as capital expenditures, and therefore reflected as an inflow in investing activities when sold.
As we planned, we are continuing to make investments to expand and build out certain of our manufacturing and production facilities in our Microwave Products, rocket systems, hypersonic, and jet engine businesses to meet existing and anticipated customer orders and requirements, and investing in related new machinery, equipment, and systems. Consolidated DSOs, or day sales outstanding, increased from 121 days during the fourth quarter of 2025 to 130 days during the first quarter of '26, reflecting the 22.6% revenue growth, impact of the acquisitions, as well as the timing of milestone billings and contractual funding, certain of which were and have been impacted by the extended federal government shutdown and CRA.
Our contract mix for the first quarter of '26 was 73% revenues generated from fixed-price contracts, 23% generated from cost-plus contracts, and 4% generated from time-and-material contracts. Revenues generated from contracts with the US federal government during the first quarter of '26 were approximately 69%, including revenues generated from contracts with the DOW, non-DOW federal government agencies, and foreign military sales contracts, and 21% generated from foreign customers, and 10% from commercial customers.
Now moving to financial guidance. Our financial guidance we provided today includes our expectations and assumptions for our supply chains execution, the impact of employee sourcing, hiring, retention, and related costs.
Our second quarter and updated full-year '26 guidance now includes the estimated contribution from the recently closed Orbit acquisition. As Orbit had previously reported its financial results under International Accounting Financial Reporting Standards, we are in the process of aligning its reporting to US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, or GAAP.
Accordingly, we have included conservative estimates in our updated guidance at this time. Our second quarter '26 guidance reflects the estimated revenue mix and less leverage on elevated administrative, manufacturing overhead, and bid and proposal costs that we have ramped in the business to support the forecasted full-year '26 growth.
Our second quarter revenue guidance of $400 to $410 million reflects estimated organic revenue growth of 4% to 7% as compared to the second quarter of '25. Our updated full-year '26 revenue guidance of $1.7 to $1.760 billion includes the estimated contribution from the Orbit acquisitions, and includes an estimated organic revenue growth rate of 15% to 19% over '25 actual performance.
As you may recall, our '25 actual performance exceeded our original forecast. Operating cash flow guidance includes the continued use of working capital to fund our organic revenue growth, which includes the increase in accounts receivable and the impact of delays in contract funding to enable customer billings and collections, and increases in inventory and related prepaid asset balances as we ramp production and procure long-lead time materials for our target and tactical drones, solid rocket motors, and our turbofan and turbojet engines.
Kratos's operating cash flow guidance also assumes certain investments in our rocket systems and unmanned systems businesses related to the procurement of rocket and related systems, and our plan to begin producing approximately 40 Valkyries annually beginning by the end of '27 and into '28, as well as the completion of certain of our unmanned systems and related derivatives and vehicles. Additional forecast and investments in '26 include our funding of the Prometheus joint venture established last year, which we estimate will occur ratably throughout '26 for an aggregate for the year of approximately $50 million; our Anaconda radar program; our Helios hypersonic and Arc Chamber program; our Indiana Hypersonic Integration Facility; our GEK and Blade Works engine facilities; investments for additional machinery and equipment to enhance throughput and production at our recently acquired Nomad facilities; and our Vulcan, Kraken, Elysium, Nemesis, Hermes investments for certain drone-related opportunities and other initiatives.
Eric?
Eric DeMarco
Great. Thank you, Deanna.
We'll now turn it to the moderator for any questions. Reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press *11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.
To withdraw your question, please press *11 again. Please stand by while we compile our Q&A roster.
Operator
Our first question will come from Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies. Your line is open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Good afternoon, Eric, Deanna. Great quarter.
If you could elaborate more on the strong start to the year and the fiscal revenue raise? Could you speak to where you see the most strength, Eric?
I know you talked about it in the prepared remarks as well, and maybe compare that to early results you're seeing from Orbit and Nomad.
Eric DeMarco
Yep. Internally, as I said in the remarks, Sheila, our engine business, KTT, is ripping right now.
It is ripping. You can just think about the number of missile programs that are out there, the number of drone programs that are out there, the number of space programs that are out there.
We're involved with many, many of these, and it's increasing. On the microwave electronics side, as as we're headquartered in Israel, and our three big customers, partners, are Israel Aerospace Industries, Rafael, and Elbit.
We know the conflict that's been going on over there. We are designed in on virtually every missile and radar system over there, and all those stocks need to be restored and rebuilt.
We're involved in that, and it is very, very strong. In unmanned systems, our unmanned systems business was particularly strong in Q1.
This is on the tactical side. Just joining it, we have a lot of stuff going on on the tactical side, and we made some important execution milestones in Q1.
On the acquisitions, I'll start with Nomad. Nomad is going to be incredibly powerful for us.
They are in the counter-UAS area. They are in the SATCOM area, not C2 and not TT&C, but SATCOM area.
They are doing some very interesting things, let's just say in the missile defense area. As Deanna mentioned in her remarks, we're going to be making some capital investments over the next 12, 18 months, and we expect them to be one of our strongest organic growers starting next year.
Orbit is a crown jewel, Sheila. It's in Israel where we are.
Same customers, same programs. Their SATCOM is on unmanned aerial systems, unmanned ground systems, unmanned water systems, manned systems.
They are a very unique company, and their growth rate is going to be consistent with what we see for us. Q1 across the board was particularly strong for us, Sheila.
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Great. Maybe just double clicking on the hypersonic revenue opportunity a little bit more, tracking to the 400 this year and stepping up to 700 next year, I believe, still.
How much of that is coming from the Middle East conflict and what's your visibility on the 700?
Eric DeMarco
Right. I can't comment on the Middle East.
I would go with not a lot, but I can't comment on that. The visibility on the 700, let me give you the pieces.
In the reconciliation bill, now that the department has said they're going to fully obligate the entire 156 billion this year, there was $400 million in there for the Mach TB program, which is ours. There's 400 million of the 700 million quick.
On the 2027 defense budget that's being asked for, the 300 million is covered plus some. The testing requirements for hypersonic systems, and not just the weapon platform, but guidance systems, control systems, seeker systems, communication systems, is incredible.
We're the ones that have the program on it. We feel extremely strong on our forecast in our hypersonic business for the next several years.
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Great. Thank you so much.
Eric DeMarco
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question will come from the line of Mike Crawford of B. Riley Securities.
Your line is open.
Mike Crawford
Thank you. Just to continue on the unmanned systems front, with the 40 drone annual production rate for Valkyrie, is that primarily in Oklahoma?
Can you just remind us where else you're building Mako and Firejets and derivative drones?
Eric DeMarco
Yep. Valkyrie right now is 100% in Oklahoma for the airframe, etc.
The avionics and electronics are down in Florida. Mako is in Sacramento, California.
The next big one that's got to probably be ramping, Mike, starting at the end of this year, next year, with the Mighty Hornet program is the tactical Firejet. We have moved substantially all of that production to Oklahoma.
Mike, on that one, very importantly, we are successfully flying the tactical Firejets with Kratos jet engines. We are totally vertically integrated on our tactical Firejet CCA right now.
We've driven costs down even more with higher performance. Mike, I'm being told that Kratos is the only company in the world that builds the plane and the engine under the same organization.
Those engines, Mike, they're built in Michigan. The tactical Firejet engines are built in Michigan.
Mike Crawford
Oh, okay. Thank you.
Then are you able to comment on how well you're competing against Beehive and that one Czechia-based company for supplying engines to other tactical jet and low-cost cruise missile providers?
Eric DeMarco
I believe that we have won the vast majority of the opportunities that have been presented to us, if not every one of them. This is why, Mike, Deanna and I right now are working with the team putting the program plan together with the supply chain, getting ready to turn them on to build 3,000 engines next year, ramping to maybe 5,000 or 6,000 in 2028.
These are all tied to programs. We feel real good.
Mike Crawford
That's all Auburn Hills? GEK is something completely different?
Eric DeMarco
No, this is 100% Auburn Hills. Think 250 pounds of thrust on down, okay?
Think the Air Force's family of affordable mass missiles, the FAM program. Think that program is for 30,000 missiles over the next few years.
Mike Crawford
Thank you. One final question.
Just I don't know if you can, but could you maybe just provide a little deeper dive into what kind of SATCOM miniaturization IP from Orbit that you might combine with your pre-existing microwave electronic capabilities to provide a new solution?
Eric DeMarco
Yep. The vast majority of Orbit's antennas, for example, Mike, right now are parabolic.
Think very little parabolic antennas, like a DirecTV antenna shape, but very small, that are on drones and airplanes and unmanned boats and stuff like that. We are going to electronic antennas.
Kratos, our microwave business is already building electronic antennas. Think flat panel phased arrays and AESA, advanced electronic scanned array antennas.
We already have the customers, we have the platform, we have the program. We're going to slowly transition with our microwave electronics business to the electronic antennas, which have far more capability than the parabolics.
Mike Crawford
Excellent. Thank you.
Eric DeMarco
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question will be coming from the line of Peter Arment of Baird. Your line is open, Peter.
Peter Arment
Good afternoon, Eric, Deanna. Nice results.
Hey, Eric. The re-sling was a successful flight of the JDAM-LR, the long-range, which I guess was renamed from the Powered JDAM.
Can you maybe talk a little bit about how you see this ramping up? I know you talked a little bit about a lot of engine production out of TDI.
How quickly should we expect the ramp up on that platform?
Eric DeMarco
You saw that. That is now the GBU-75.
That's the official name. The program of record is currently for 25,000.
It's expected, Peter, to go much higher, several tens of thousands more. Now, I have to be careful because I'm not the prime.
Boeing is the prime. There was significant funding for that in the reconciliation bill, which is now fully funded with the money being obligated.
This ties into our plans getting ready for LRIP next year and then full-rate production for the following year. Now, without talking about that specific program, I just can't, that program and several of the other ones that you all are aware of that I've walked you through before, several of these are expected to go into LRIP later this year, no later than next year.
Peter, this is how we're getting to maybe 3,000 engines next year, 5,000 or 6,000 engines in '28, and even more in '29. These are platforms we are designed-in on.
We're already on them.
Peter Arment
It's incredible. Can you talk a little bit about, or what can you say about Florida Turbine involvement in competing for, I guess it's the Sea-Launched Cruise Missile and some of the opportunities there?
I know Kratos is one of a few players there. I don't know what you can say, but you're in the engine business now, Eric.
Eric DeMarco
Okay. Let's talk about what's publicly out there.
We we have been Kratos has been selected for the development of the engine for the Submarine-Launched Cruise Missile Nuclear. We've won SLCM-N, okay?
As GE announced, GE and our partner, GE announced we have now been selected for the engine for the next class of attritable and expendable CCAs. We've been down-selected on that, all right?
We were just informed in the past week that we, us and GE, we just won another one. Now, this next one I'm going to say very carefully: the 7-year framework agreements.
You've seen 7-year framework agreements on missile systems. We have been selected as the engine, we, us, GEK, we have been selected as the engine for the expanded production, I think it's going up 4x, I think is what the announcement was, four time four times current production for two of those missile platforms already.
Peter Arment
Terrific. Lastly, just staying, I guess, with GEK.
Should we anticipate the fact, kind of you're moving that direction in higher thrust that we could see those starting to be incorporated into future Valkyries? How are you thinking of that?
Eric DeMarco
I can't talk about it. I can't, brother.
I'd like to, but I can't talk about it. I apologize.
Peter Arment
Appreciate all the details as always. Thanks, Eric.
Eric DeMarco
Thanks.
Operator
Our next question will come from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs. Noah, your line is open.
Noah Poponak
Hey, Eric and Deanna. Good afternoon, good evening.
Eric DeMarco
Good evening.
Deanna Lund
Hi, Noah.
Noah Poponak
Depending on your location.
Eric DeMarco
Good morning.
Noah Poponak
Yeah. It all feels the same at the moment.
Eric, can you guys size, even if very roughly at this point, annual revenue that is from the hypersonics business and that is from power and propulsion? Obviously, there's some degree of overlap between the two, if you could express that as well.
Deanna Lund
Yeah. For the total public information that we've provided for our hypersonics business, which is our Defense and Rocket Support business, the expectation for 2026 is $400 million.
Then for next year, the expectation is for $700 million. Then,
Noah Poponak
okay,
Eric DeMarco
think of those, Noah, as primarily right now solid rocket motors for the hypersonics business right now. Next year, I'll be talking to you about air-breathers, but not right now.
On the cruise missile engines we're talking about, these are air-breathers. We're currently on the smaller ones, our current run rate annually, think, is about $10 million.
Noah Poponak
As
Eric DeMarco
we're talking about thousands of engines, and think a selling price, depending on which engine, of $40,000 to $60,000 each.
Noah Poponak
That's all helpful. I will keep trying to triangulate that lot as it's evolving.
Can I ask about the 2Q outlook? It would require the strong pace of organic growth that you've been on to slow and a step down in the EBITDA margin and even the absolute dollars before then, all of that picking back up in the second half.
Can you just detail what's behind that?
Deanna Lund
Yeah. Part of it, on the margin piece, part of that's related to the mix that is expected.
We did have a quite a favorable mix in the first quarter. The other piece of that is we have been ramping infrastructure costs, manufacturing costs, bid and proposal costs.
That is not being absorbed as much in the second quarter just because of the ramp that we're building up for the production and the growth for the second half. As far as the revenue step down, if you will, from Q1 to Q2, some of that's in our Unmanned Systems.
It's just based on the timing of some production and shipment in the first quarter as compared to the second quarter. That's primarily the biggest change, if you will, from sequential quarters.
Eric DeMarco
We're trying to be conservative. We are.
The issue out there, Noah, in the industry right now is on the government side, the program offices and the contracting offices. The amount of money they are trying to get obligated and under contract is incredible.
I just told you now there's an additional $120 billion that they're trying to get obligated between now and the end of the fiscal year. We're trying to be conservative.
It's all lined up, but if we don't get the awards, the DD 250s aren't done, we can't execute on it. We're cognizant of that backlog right now in the government program shops.
Noah Poponak
Okay. That makes sense.
Appreciate that.
Eric DeMarco
Then
Noah Poponak
I guess just maybe talking a little bit more about margins over time, you have an interesting go-to-market and an interesting model that would seemingly allow for your margins to go higher. Over the last few quarters, as the organic growth has accelerated, the margins have tracked.
What's the latest thinking, I guess, on where margins go beyond this year and what the potential is over time?
Eric DeMarco
I would go with what we put out there for now. We're looking for year-over-year 100 basis point increases.
So '26 over '25, 100 basis points. '27 over '26, 100 basis points.
You can probably pencil in, if you want to, '28 over '27, 100 basis points. We're pretty confident in this, and the balance, as is we have so many opportunities right now, our bid and proposal costs, where we're being told, 'If you bid, you're going to win,' which we're winning, are significant, millions of dollars.
We're putting in the money on the bid and proposal to win these, like this recent space program, $450 million, that we were encouraged to bid it, we bid it, we won it. That was a very expensive bid.
We're balancing those costs against making sure that we hit the 100 basis point increases every year.
Noah Poponak
Okay. I would think at some point you would achieve some escape velocity of leverage with you've invested so much in the business and then you get the revenue growth.
Sounds like, for the time being, still just reinvesting back into those opportunities. That makes sense.
Okay. Thanks so much.
I appreciate it.
Eric DeMarco
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question will be coming from the line of Ken Herbert of RBC CM. Your line is open.
Ken Herbert
Yeah. Hi, good afternoon, Eric and Deanna.
Wanted to follow up on your comment around timing and some of the challenges in actually taking funding levels into contracts. As we think into heading into fiscal '27, there's obviously quite a step-up more broadly in funding for drones.
You think about the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group and funding levels there, how do you see two questions: How do you see that broadly impacting sort of opportunities with across your portfolio, not only for the Valkyrie or other systems, but on the engine and other side? Then secondly, I guess more importantly, what's your confidence level that we see sort of the kind of step-up they've talked about in drone and counter-drone funding, and that it actually happens in a timely manner, I guess?
Thank you. Yep.
Eric DeMarco
On that funding, as you know right now, the placeholder's $56 billion over 5 years. That's the program you're talking about, DAWG.
When you talk drones, I'm going to talk drones and loitering munitions, which both fall underneath it. Our confidence on the engine side, we'll start there, is extremely high.
If you triangulate the missiles they're talking about, I named one program with 30,000 of them, and you take a look at what's going on in the world, and the attrition of our exquisite missiles right now, and how long it takes to rebuild them, how expensive they are, we, Kratos, are highly confident that on the small jet drone, jet loitering munition, jet missile side, we have great confidence in our step-up forecast. Very good.
All right, now let's go to the drone side. We are being very careful.
We've made the decision we're going to be the merchant supplier of engines, our plan is to be on every other system provider's missile or drone or loitering munition, be a merchant supplier. What does that mean?
We are picking and choosing our spots very carefully where we are going to actually build the entire system, we're not competing with our merchant supplier customer partner on the engine side, okay? There are one or two that we're involved it with right now where we're comfortable we're not competing or going to cause a problem on the merchant supplier side.
Ken, our primary focus is it's better to have part of something than all of nothing. Our part of something is to be on everybody's engines than to bid on DAWG systems where there are 10 guys bidding and, even though we think we're the best always, we might not win because the government is trying to rebuild the industrial base and rebuild different competitors.
Ken Herbert
That's helpful. If I could, how do you think about the fact that a lot of the funding for DAWG in particular is coming through expected reconciliation relative to base budget, and are you handicapping those any differently as you just think about fiscal '27?
Eric DeMarco
Right. Obviously for '26, I'm all happy.
That's all bolted in at what, $1 billion and 100 $1 trillion $1 trillion $150 billion. As on the $1.5 trillion that the department's going for for '27, the base budget piece is $1 trillion $150 billion, and the reconciliation bill is $350 billion.
Very importantly, if that makes it, I believe it's going to make it based on my recent meetings as I talked about on the Hill. The new baseline for the base budget is $1 trillion $150 billion, which never goes down.
The only time it ever went down was under Obama and sequestration. You take that $1 trillion $150 billion base, and that goes up 3%, 5%, 6% a year.
The DAWG program will be adequately funded. It's a new program that we'll be able to successfully execute our business plan even if there are no future reconciliation bills.
Ken Herbert
Great. Thanks, Eric.
Eric DeMarco
Yep.
Operator
Our next question will be coming from the line of Jonathan Siegmann of Stifel. Your line is open, Jonathan.
Jonathan Siegmann
Thank you, Eric and Deanna. Good afternoon.
A lot of progress on a lot of vectors. Maybe one you didn't talk about as much was Prometheus, the solid rocket JV.
Mentioned $50 million of CapEx this year. Just wondering, there was some earlier Defense Production Act Title III money for that campus.
Does that change the level of investment that Kratos and the partner is putting in, or does that represent opportunity to increase the scope of that facility? Thank you.
Eric DeMarco
Great Great question. Yep.
The Department of So we had the Prometheus groundbreaking earlier this year, a just a few months ago. The day after the groundbreaking, the department came out with its own press release that they're putting in $100 million into the camp, the Energetics Campus, on their own, which was great.
Right after we put out our groundbreaking press release, the department put that put that out. Continuing on your question, there is absolute opportunity here for Prometheus, Kratos, and Rafael with the department for significant additional department funds to be put into Prometheus to both pull production to the left and increase it for existing platforms that we're quote-unquote on and new platforms they want us on.
Prometheus, in my opinion, is going to be a grand slam home run for the United States, the energetics business, and for Rafael and Kratos. The department is with us, our customer is with us, and we're planning right now, we're going to have first fire next next year,
Jonathan Siegmann
first fire next year.
Eric DeMarco
Yeah.
Jonathan Siegmann
That's great.
Eric DeMarco
Yep. Then
Jonathan Siegmann
maybe I'll just add on one. You touched on it with Orbit Tech.
Just looks like a great acquisition, a really strong final quarter as an independent company. If our math is right, your revenue in Israel now is approaching about 10%.
Last year you upgraded your manufacturing facility. Could you maybe talk a little bit about the prospect of the enlarged business there and how much exposure does it have to munition restock that will unfold given the conflicts there?
Thanks again.
Eric DeMarco
Yep. Deanna, are we near 10%?
Deanna Lund
Yeah.
Eric DeMarco
Yep. We're near 10%.
We have very large exposure to munition restock. Just think Tamir on Iron Dome, think Arrow, all right?
We're on those. Think Barak, David's Sling.
We're on all of them. It's us, and Orbit's on a lot of stuff, too.
We are forecasting and expect significant growth in our Israeli business for the foreseeable future for the restock and for new systems that our big three partners, Rafael, Elbit, and Israel Aerospace Industry, are working with us on. As I think I think we're the largest independent merchant supplier of microwave electronics outside of the United States, and it is growing rapidly.
As I think you also know, in the US, we're back in the game in the microwave business. It is growing incredibly fast also, and this is where some of our highest margins are because a lot of this is catalog pricing.
It's not subject to TINA, which is normal. This is one of the key aspects tying into Noah question on margin expansion, and why in the future, maybe we can do better than 100 basis points as our merchant supplier businesses get bigger relative to the system businesses.
Jonathan Siegmann
Thanks for comments.
Eric DeMarco
Yep. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question will be coming from the line of Joe Gomes of Noble Capital. Your line is open, Joe.
Joe Gomes
Good afternoon. Apologize, I just joined the call, I missed a lot of it.
I was on another one. If I ask any questions that have been asked already, I apologize in advance.
Eric DeMarco
No problem.
Joe Gomes
I wanted to ask, kind of start out with, you talk about all the opportunities, Eric, and all the things that you're bidding on, and basically you said, 'Hey, the people are coming on saying if you bid on it, you win it.' How is that impacting your ability to get employees for these programs that you're winning?
Is the labor situation gotten any better? Has it gotten worse?
Maybe you could provide some color there.
Eric DeMarco
Okay. It's gotten better in the past year, 6 months, but it's not great, especially in turbomachinery engineers for propulsion systems.
They don't exist. It's very hard in the turbomachinery area.
You may or may not have heard, in my prepared remarks, I talked about we've been verbally told we're going to receive another very large industrial gas turbine program at the end of this year, beginning of next year by another company. This industrial gas turbine area for power generation, it's an incredible opportunity right now.
If we had the people, this is an area we could accelerate our growth even more, Joe. We really could.
These are the same guys that are working on our cruise missile programs. They're working on our hypersonic air-breathing programs.
They're working on our space programs. When I say guys, guys and gals, of course.
Our number one operational challenge right now as a company is obtaining and retaining qualified people. Then if they need to be able to obtain and retain a security clearance, that adds another layer on it, especially in certain states where marijuana is legal to smoke because you can't get a security clearance.
I'm not passing judgment here if you like to do that. That's the dynamic.
It's not as bad as it was a year and a half ago. It's better, but it's not great.
Joe Gomes
Thanks for that. Then one more.
Obviously, a lot of the questions deal with the military side of things here. You and I have talked a lot in the past about some of the more commercial, the truck platooning, logistics automation.
I know you had a release or two of that in the last 6 months or so. Just wondering where's that business stand?
Are you going to be able to grow that business here in the near term with all the focus on the defense side? Yep.
Eric DeMarco
Our unmanned ground system business is doing great. As we're in the soybean farms, we're in the sugar beet farms, we're on the timber land.
I think we're in 15 states now driving unmanned on the roads. It's doing very, very well.
As you said, there is just so much going on on the national security side. It's not a strategic focus area for us, but because our technology is so good and so cost-affordable, they're coming to us.
Joe, we're in discussions right now with a global farming equipment company, you would know who they are, and it's possible by the end of the year we're going to get a contract with them and we're going to turn their farming equipment into unmanned systems out on the farms. It's happening, but I cannot tell you that it's a major strategic initiative because it's not, and I apologize.
Joe Gomes
Fair enough. I'll get back in queue.
Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.
Eric DeMarco
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question will be coming from the line of Pete Skibitski of Alembic Global. Your line is open.
Pete Skibitski
Hey, good evening, guys. Thanks.
On the growth in KGS in the first quarter, I'm just trying to figure that out. Was that mostly Mach TB driving the growth there?
Then the billion-dollar sole-source, I think, addition that you mentioned, Eric, I think in your opening remarks, was that an increase in the ceiling of Mach TB, or was that something different?
Eric DeMarco
Go ahead.
Deanna Lund
Yeah. The organic growth in KGS is partially driven by Mach TB, but also in our microwave business as well as our KTT business.
It was across those three divisions within KGS.
Pete Skibitski
Okay.
Eric DeMarco
On the other one, I can't get ahead of the customer until they announce it, but we've got three separate very large initiatives going on the hypersonic side, two of which we've been verbally told we're winning. The third one, I think we're also going to get.
I want to wait until the customer comes out on it until I say anything, just because I don't want to get in front of them. It should be very soon on one or two of these.
Pete Skibitski
Fair enough. Then I guess last one for me, maybe for Deanna.
Just on the $160 million in CapEx this year, just what's the best guess that you think we should model in terms of how that profile is going to look in kind of through the mid-term? It seems like a lot of the spending here will continue for some time just judging from the amount of initiatives you guys have underway.
Deanna Lund
I think it would, and obviously, we're not giving any guidance for next year, but I think that the elevation of CapEx will continue. I don't think it'll be at that level, but it would, just with the initiatives we have going on, I think it will continue to be elevated in '27.
Pete Skibitski
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Deanna Lund
Sure.
Eric DeMarco
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Austin Moeller of Canaccord Genuity.
Your line is open, Austin.
Austin Moeller
Hi, good afternoon, Eric and Deanna. You mentioned the win on the $447 million contract for ground management integration of the missile warning and tracking satellites in MEO.
At this point, you now provide ground station capability across all three orbital inclinations: LEO, MEO, and GEO. Should we think that Kratos has a place competing on the recompete of SCAR with OpenSpace, and do you think there's an opportunity there for both the flat panel phased array antennas and the parabolic?
Eric DeMarco
That's a very, very insightful question. You're exactly right.
We are across all three of those orbits, and Austin, I've been learning a lot about cislunar orbit lately, too, because we're now in cislunar orbit also. To your question on SCAR, obviously, we were partnered with AeroVironment on SCAR.
We delivered all our stuff out previously, the termination for convenience, it didn't impact us at all because we had already delivered out our piece. When it comes out, if it comes out, we will definitely take a look at it to see if is something we want to prime or do we want to partner again with AV or partner with somebody else.
We'll look at it. I don't know right now enough details on it.
To the next part of your question, on a parabolic antenna versus an AESA antenna or phased array antenna, here's my opinion, okay? I go back to what the Secretary said on November 7th in the Arsenal of Freedom speech: 'Bring me 85% of the solution now that I can field now, not something that I may or may not get two or three years from now.'
My tummy tells me that parabolics will win there. I don't know.
This is my opinion, just based on what's coming out of the department.
Austin Moeller
Okay. Then if we talk about drone dominance for just a second, on future gauntlets, do you expect other drones in the Group 2 to 5 category will be requested and procured at scale?
Do you think Kratos is in a strong position, given your manufacturing scale, to ramp production and take greater economics on future production lots for Gauntlet 1 and other gauntlets?
Eric DeMarco
On your first two questions: yes, and yes. Yes and yes.
We're in source selection right now on something related to that, I can't get into too many details. As I think I said on the last call, but if I didn't, I'll say it now, on Phase 2, we got some real compelling solutions on Phase 2.
What I understand on future phases, we have some really super compelling solutions. We'll see, but concisely answer your questions: yes and yes.
Austin Moeller
Very exciting. Thanks again.
Eric DeMarco
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question will be coming from the line of Andre Madrid of BTIG. Your line is open.
Andre Madrid
Good afternoon, Eric and Deanna. Thanks for taking my question.
Eric DeMarco
Hi.
Deanna Lund
Hi.
Andre Madrid
Deanna, could you maybe provide a split of Unmanned Systems sales between Valkyrie and target? I know Valkyrie drove the strong growth, but I wanted to see just how much was between the two.
Deanna Lund
The tactical revenue for the quarter was about $20 million.
Andre Madrid
That 20 million was almost exclusively Valkyrie, or was there some other stuff?
Deanna Lund
It's predominantly Valkyrie.
Andre Madrid
I know you built a lot of those Valkyries kind of ahead of schedule. I guess just when we think about Valkyrie sales again and or tactical drone sales in isolation, just how should we think about the cadence through the rest of 2026?
Is 2Q going to be a step down? I know you've kind of already alluded to that a bit, but just I guess how significant should we expect of a step down and then kind of a rebound through the end of the year?
Deanna Lund
There will be a step down. We haven't given guidance for the break between KGS and Unmanned, but there will be a step down.
As far as the produced units that we've been building as capital-owned assets, it's going to depend on the configuration of what we have built and what the customer is ultimately ordering. If it's the same configuration and we get the contract for that, then if those are complete units, then that revenue would be recorded immediately.
If they're 50% complete, then we would record revenue at 50% complete 50% at the time of the award and the remaining would be as it is completed. If it's for a different configuration other than what we have in inventory or in fixed assets, then it would be based on that build process and the revenue would be reported accordingly.
Andre Madrid
Got it. That's very helpful.
Then one more. Eric, maybe this one for you.
You mentioned this directed energy down-selection as a prime. Historically, I haven't thought of this as an end market that you guys play in directly.
Is that true? Is this a new entry, or is this something that you've been actively supporting for some time and has just been more behind the scenes and just not directly addressed?
Eric DeMarco
Kratos has been involved in directed energy weapon systems and laser weapon systems for years and years and years and years and years. I haven't talked about it.
Over the past year internally and tied in with an acquisition we've made, we try to go 1 plus 1 equals 4. This is a counter-UAS system.
It's mobile. We're the prime.
It's several hundred million. It's going to start ramping next year.
It should be very big in 2028. This is an area where probably now that we've won this one, it will open the door for us to win more.
Andre Madrid
Got it. That's very helpful.
I'll leave it there. Thank you so much.
Okie-dokie.
Eric DeMarco
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question will be coming from the line of Michael Ciarmoli of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Michael, your line is open.
Michael Ciarmoli
Hey, good afternoon. Apologies if I missed it, but wanted to ask on the backlog and the significant growth there in the quarter.
Did you see any impact from the government shutdown delaying some awards that could have potentially driven your backlog even higher?
Eric DeMarco
Yes, we did, and we're expecting to see them in Q2. Right now, Q2 bookings is looking real good right now because it's freeing up.
Michael Ciarmoli
Great. Then one on hypersonics.
Just given the very strong environment there and the new awards you mentioned, it sounds like the demand is clearly there. Is there anything that could potentially drive revenues above the $700 million target in '27 that you've talked about for that hypersonics franchise, whether that's additional investments or alleviating any bottlenecks, anything there that you could call out to drive even more growth in hypersonics?
Thanks.
Eric DeMarco
There there is absolutely the opportunity for us to be well well ahead of that in 2027. Here's Here's what it is: it's the supply chain.
It's the engines and the materials for the glide vehicles and the air-breathers. This is what This is This is it right here.
As you As we've we've have under order now, I think, 120 motors that are starting to come in Q3. This is also one of the reasons, Noah, why there's a slight dip in Q2.
Then we're going to integrate them with the front ends, and then they're going to be launched. We have the launch manifest manifest for 20 '27 and '28.
What's the most important part? It's the one you don't have.
All the sub-elements have to come in to be able to get the systems out on the range and get them launched. There is clear The demand is there.
The funding is there. The customer intent is there.
This is a great question on why the US department is rebuilding the industrial base. It's it's not there to do what they want to do, and that would be the inhibitor for us.
Michael Ciarmoli
Great. Thanks so much.
Eric DeMarco
Yep.
Operator
Our next question will be coming from the line of Cashen Keeler of BNP Paribas. Your line is open.
Cashen Keeler
Hi, Eric, Deanna. Thanks for the question.
Just starting on capital deployment, you obviously up the CapEx guidance a bit and completed some acquisitions, but you also raised a good amount of equity in the quarter. As you look ahead, how are you thinking about capital deployment here?
Is it mainly just going to be focusing on those organic investments, or can we expect it to be active with M&A moving forward as well?
Eric DeMarco
Yep. Clearly, let's do the easy one first.
Clearly, the growth opportunities we have, we are in a great position now in the eyes of our customers to execute on what we have and for the additional awards they intend to give us. Think the engines, for example.
Probably in Q3, we're going to start placing the orders for the components and the subsystems for a lot of jet engines, which we will have programs for and contracts for, which we'll start selling in '27 and in '28. Those are the air-breathers.
120 solid rocket motors I just mentioned to you, we've made some payments on those, we're going to have to continue to make payments on those. Those tie right into the $400 million revenue for hypersonic this year and the 700 next year.
Got to have the motors. There's cash going to be deployed.
I can keep going. I can give you the programs, the customers, where the cash for working capital will be deployed, but then we'll get it back in revenue and then receivables when we collect it.
On the M&A side, we are not aggressively pursuing anything, nothing, zero, all right? However, right now, there are a couple, three small companies where they're retiring.
This is very similar. They know us.
They've come to me. They're thinking about retiring.
What they build is exactly consistent with what we do. It's not like hand grenades.
It's in our sweet spots. We are talking with these gentlemen and their wives, and if it makes sense, we'll do something with them.
These are small. We have no plans right now, nothing on the radar screen for anything significant.
That could change. I never say never, but that's where we're at right now.
Cashen Keeler
Okay. That's helpful.
Then on Valkyrie, there were just some comments in the press out of one of the industry trade shows about Valkyrie and the MUX TACAIR program. I think one of them was just on whether or not they're looking for conventional takeoff and landing, STOL, or VTOL.
Just curious if any of those decisions impact your ability to ramp to the 40 units a year, or are your production lines fairly modular and that you can adapt to those requirements?
Eric DeMarco
That's a great question. Good for you.
You saw that. That's very relevant to the question asked earlier on the revenue recognition on the Valkyrie.
So 5 years ago, 4 years ago, because of the wargames that were performed, runway independence was it. That was the winner.
That was 5 years ago, 6 years ago. Had to be runway-independent.
Chinese are going to blow up all the runways. Valkyries launched off a rail, go get them.
We started building our Valkyries on a rail, runway-independent. Kendall comes in as Secretary of the Air Force.
Halfway through his term in 2022, we're going to do the Agile Combat Employment program, ACE, where we're going to have all these little bitty runways all over the Pacific, runway independence doesn't matter. We want wheels.
Now what you've just seen is it moving back to runway-independent. Take a look at what Shield AI is doing.
They're building the X-BAT, which is a runway-independent super-duper pooper-scooper drone. I'm going through all that with you because with our current customers, we have orders and we're going to receive orders for a certain mix.
We're going to build those and we're going to deliver them, but along the way, the wind could change. That Marine Corps thing you talked about, it talked about both runway-independent and CTOL versions.
It's still kind of in flux now, and thank God we have three versions that we can build: rail-launched; take the rail-launched one, put it on a trolley, launch it off a runway, runway-capable rail-launched; and then full CTOL, conventional takeoff and landing with the landing gear internal. This is why when I initially said last call that I think I said we're going to do 35 to 45 a year or something like that, I said depending on mix.
The 40 that we're going to get up to by the end of '27, beginning of '28, if it's all CTOLs, it might be 30. If it's a mix, it'll be 40.
It just depends on the mix. I'm not trying to obfuscate this.
I'm telling you that this is happening real-time. We have an inventory of a handful left of the rail-launched ones.
We're building right now numerous CTOL ones, numerous, that'll be ready next year. As the hand of cards comes out, we'll let you know as soon as we can by customer what it looks like.
Cashen Keeler
Okay. Thanks for the details.
Eric DeMarco
You got it.
Operator
Our next question will be coming from the line of Brian Dobson of Clear Street. Your line is open.
Brian Dobson
Thanks so much for taking my question. Earlier you were describing a generational recapitalization of the US defense industry.
You mentioned some conversations that you had on the Hill. Beyond that, what gives you the confidence that this can endure through multiple administration changes and perhaps several budget cycles?
To that point, how do you see Kratos evolving and growing to meet the needs of the Department of War over the next few years?
Eric DeMarco
Yep. On the first part of your question, like I said, I've spent a lot of time on the Hill since our last call, both sides of the aisle, with senior leadership.
The chairman and the ranking members, HASC and SASC, and then on down from there. There is no doubt in my mind national security spends are going to continue to increase because of the threat profile.
Is it going to be a $1.5 trillion or a $1.3 trillion? I don't know.
Under the Dems, are there going to be reconciliation bills or is it all going to be in the base budget? I don't know, but it's probably all going to be in the base budget.
Then the Dems, and I'm not saying this negatively, this is policy, they're going to require equal discretionary non-defense to go up, too. There might be just different mixes here, but unless global peace breaks out, based on what's going on geopolitically, the trajectory is up and to the right for national security spending.
Now tying into the second part of your question, and I've said this twice on the call because it's very, very, very important: you have the 5.5 traditional primes, 5.5, okay? Then you've got Kratos.
You got a lot of new defense technology companies that are coming and they're coming. There is a massive supply-demand imbalance right now.
There is incredible demand for military-grade hardware and software. Kratos has military-grade hardware and software, and we're the low-cost guy.
That ain't going to change for multiple years. It's not like we're having to take share from anybody right now.
The pie is growing. The total addressable market, '27 over '26, for example, looks like it's going to go up $400 billion.
Our primary focus is execution. We must execute, deliver products that work every time at an affordable price in large quantities, and we are going to do fantastic as the financials are showing.
We're going to let the financials and the growth rate, the organic growth rates, and the margin expansion do the talking. That's our plan.
Brian Dobson
Excellent. Thanks so much for the color.
Eric DeMarco
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question will come from the line of Gavin Parsons of UBS. Your line is open.
Gavin Parsons
Thank you. Good evening.
Eric DeMarco
Hi.
Deanna Lund
Hi.
Gavin Parsons
Eric, Kratos is already pretty fixed-price heavy, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on the White House executive order last week on fixed-price contracting, if that has any competitive implications.
Eric DeMarco
Right. There are colors of fixed price.
Fixed-price production contracts are extremely beneficial for the government and for the contractor, because as you go down the learning curve, as you're producing, you become more efficient, you can make more money, and at the same time, you can lower your price to the government. Your margins can go up, and their cost of paying you can go down because you're getting so efficient.
Fixed-price development contracts, we don't do those. Those are scary.
This is why Boeing got into so much trouble over all the years. They took fixed-price development contracts building something that had never been built before, and if you can't get it to work, you got to keep going.
We don't do fixed-price development contracts. We're not big enough to be able to handle it.
From our direct discussions with the department on programs, we are clearly the low-cost provider. We are looked at the low-cost provider.
Let me give you an example. We recently had multiple successful ballistic missile target launches, Kratos did.
I can't get into details, wasn't announced, but we had multiple. Our ballistic missile targets, these represent adversaries' ballistic missile targets, decoys, chaff, flares, all kinds, countermeasures, etc., our most expensive all-in one, I think, is $15 million a shot.
I think the competing one's $100. Now go back to the Secretary: 'I'll take 85% of the capability now at a very reduced cost.'
I'm making this up, because I don't know what the right thing is, we can do 95% of what the $100 million one can do. We're looked at very favorably for that.
Same with our engines, same with our drones. I can go on and on.
Our focus on very capable, military-grade systems that are affordable, not exquisites, is our sweet spot. Not low-cost, not exquisite, but very capable military grade that works.
That's our focus.
Gavin Parsons
Thanks, Eric. Appreciate it.
Eric DeMarco
Yep, you got it.
Operator
I would now like to turn the conference back to Eric DeMarco for closing remarks.
Eric DeMarco
Great. We appreciate your time and all your questions, and we truly look forward to briefing you in a few months on the second quarter.
We're going to have a lot more exciting things to update you on. Thank you.
Operator
This concludes today's program. Thank you for participating.
You may now disconnect.