Moltiply Group S.p.A.

Moltiply Group S.p.A.

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Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 15, 2026

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.

Welcome and thank you for joining the presentation of Moltiply Group first quarter 2026 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing * and 0 on their telephone.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marco Pescarmona, Chairman; Mr.

Alessandro Fracassi, CEO; and Mr. Francesco Masciandaro, CFO.

Please go ahead, sir.

Marco Pescarmona

[presentation?] that has been uploaded on our website, and we will start from page 19 with the Q1 highlights.

As you can see from page 19, the first quarter was a very strong quarter with revenues of €182.6 million, up 36.5% year-on-year, with the revenues coming for two-thirds from the Mavrik Division and one-third from the Moltiply Division. In terms of profitability, EBITDA in the first quarter '26 is €51.3 million, which is up 45.2% year-on-year, and corresponds to an EBITDA margin of 28.1%, expanding from 26.6% in the first quarter of '25.

The operating income is in the first quarter of '26 €32.4 million, which is up 46.3% year-on-year, and this also means an expansion of the EBIT margin. Net income finally is in the first quarter '26 equal to €22.9 million, which is up 87.4% year-on-year.

This is a very strong performance in our mind. Of course, this benefits from the consolidation of Verivox.

We had organic growth in Mavrik in particular, and then we had a very positive impact of the consolidation of Verivox. Looking at the two divisions, I'll comment on Mavrik, and then Alessandro will comment on Moltiply BPO and Tech.

Mavrik in the first quarter on page 20 posted revenues of €120.5 million, up 80.7% year-on-year. EBITDA in the first quarter is €35.7 million, that's up 68.8% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 29.6%, which compares to the 31.7% of last year.

Of course, this EBITDA margin is affected by the dilutive impact of Verivox, which, even if we improve things there, still has a significantly lower EBITDA margin than the rest of Mavrik. The EBIT is in the first quarter €23.6 million, that's up 59.4% year-on-year.

I would say, well, first comment is we had, in general, a good first quarter. Everything was doing pretty well, then I'll go into more details.

The only business that was suffering in the first quarter year-on-year was mortgages and also to some extent shopping, but mortgages is something cyclical. However, this is where I'm getting, page 21, Q1 is not representative of what to expect for the coming quarters for two reasons.

One, Q1 was the last quarter of consolidation of Verivox. Second, in Q1, our energy business, which is today our biggest business, was doing very well in Q1, and then is suffering in Q2.

Q2 is going to be quite different. The only business line, because you remember we changed the definition of our business lines, they are by product and within a single product they are cross-country.

With this definition of business lines, we had growth in Energy and Telco, which is the biggest business line that we have today, in Insurance. We also had growth in Credit, even if mortgages in Italy were down year-on-year.

The only business line that didn't grow is Mavrik Shopping, which is in the end Trovaprezzi, which is only in Italy. Now, going into the details with reference to Mavrik Energy and Telco, yeah, we had very very good beginning of the year in all the countries, and then we started being affected by the events with Iran.

We already explained the first things that we observed when we announced the full year results in mid-March. At the beginning of March, we saw a spike of demand, very strong demand, because people were trying to fix energy prices before the providers basically change their tariffs.

It takes a few days sometimes before a big company changes its pricing, and so people were running to grab the deals while they lasted. We had this big spike at the beginning, and then, however, quite rapidly in the end, all the providers repriced, and they repriced much higher than where they were before.

The good thing, and we already said it the other time, is that the market kept functioning. There were just a couple of providers in each market that decided to stop taking new clients, and most of that has reversed.

The market kept functioning, which is quite different from what happened with the invasion of Ukraine. Prices went up a lot.

Basically, because of this, consumers started taking significantly fewer contracts. Basically, our idea is that consumers are waiting, because they see expensive prices and they think that if they wait one or two months then they'll get more reasonable prices.

Our volumes are down significantly from half of March. Year-on-year, we are down significantly in terms of volumes.

This is in our main markets, namely in Germany and in Italy. This is continuing.

We don't know how long this is going to last. There are many different scenarios, but it's very hard to predict.

I would say if this continues, we will continue to have a year-on-year contraction, maybe the gap will narrow over time, because if this is a long-term situation, people will realize that it's better to fix their prices anyway, maybe it will improve a little bit, but still be negative. Quite negative in, say, Q2, then less negative in Q3, and I don't know how it could evolve if this situation isn't fixed.

Or the US and Iran reach an agreement, or in one way or another, Straits of Hormuz is reopened. If that happens, then we could even see an acceleration, we could be back to growth, and maybe if we are lucky even have a nice spike, depending on what happens to prices when Hormuz reopens.

Today we are in a situation of uncertainty, and the uncertainty is lasting longer than we expected when we announced our results in mid-March. This is Mavrik Energy and Telco.

Telco is okay, actually, it's doing fine, but it's much smaller than energy. Mavrik Banking was growing in Q1, as we said, but not on an organic basis, basically because in Italy the mortgage market is down.

What one could expect for the coming quarters that will be fully organic in terms of comparison is that instead of seeing growth, you could see here a contraction as well. Mavrik Insurance is instead growing organically.

Growth rates, as we said, were expected to be different in different countries, but in general we see growth everywhere, just at different rates. I think this is the strongest that we have today.

Mavrik Shopping, here, well, on the Google side, we don't have any news. The European Commission has so far postponed any decision.

There are press rumors, let's say, things that have been published that say that von der Leyen is postponing this not to alienate Trump, but this has to come at a certain point. We think all this delay is not positive for operators like us, but it's not also positive for the credibility of European institutions, because even when there are very clear in our mind violations of European rules, if we are not able to impose fines and bring the infringements to an end, basically people think that they can do whatever they want in Europe.

It's really a loss of credibility. Now, in terms of expectations for the Q2, the performance will be determined only by the organic evolution of the business, because we haven't made any other acquisitions in the last 12 months, and now we are past the first 12 months of Verivox.

The main driver is really going to be the contraction of Mavrik Energy and Telco because of the energy business. Mavrik Banking, we said, is also organically going to be down, then possibly less and less over the year.

Insurance is growing, and luckily, we are seeing a stabilization, no longer a contraction, of Mavrik Shopping. All in all, we expect for Q2 a decline in the revenues in the second quarter year-on-year and a more pronounced contraction of the margins.

That's significant. I would rate it as at least double-digit contraction of the EBITDA of the Mavrik Division.

As I said, this could end anytime, and this totally depends on external factors, and if energy reopens, we could even have a nice reacceleration. We live with this binary scenario: either we have a contraction, or at a certain point they push a button, reopen Hormuz, and we start growing again and possibly with a fast recovery.

We have no control over this. For now, we continue to run the business for the long term, we are not trying to optimize short-term performance, because still, the impact is there, but it's not killing us or anything.

Then we will reassess over time depending on how the situation evolves. Of course, this situation of the energy markets appears to us so absurd and unsustainable that we don't see how it could continue.

For this reason, we don't see any reason to have different expectations for the long-term outlook for our business. At the same time, we have no idea of what could happen for the rest of the year.

With this I'm done with this outlook for Mavrik, and I hand it over to Alessandro with a more positive message for Moltiply BPO and Tech.

Alessandro Fracassi

Yes, thanks Marco. Fortunately, Moltiply BPO and Tech is not exposed to the energy crisis, or at least not directly as Mavrik.

The results for the first quarter were impacted just by the reduction of the mortgage market and mostly of the refinancing market, the surroga that went down. As you see, we see revenues in the first quarter declining from €66.1 to €62.1 million, and that's a reduction of 6% year-on-year.

The reality here is that it's really significant the impact of the pass-through notary costs, for for for for refinancing. As we have a significant business in para-notary services.

Our services include also the fees for the notary. You will remember last year when we had the growth and I told you there was a significant price effect because with the equo compenso those costs are significant.

This year, as this as these activities deflate, we see a a a significant impact on on revenues, which doesn't impact as significantly the margin. Actually, the margin was growing, as you will see in a minute.

To give you an idea, if we take out the the the pass-through costs, the the the the cost that we pay the notary and that we recharge to clients, the banks, let me just give you rough figures, last year in the first quarter they were a little above €11 million, and this year they are a little above €4 million. It's a reduction of roughly €7 million.

That reduction, if you take that away, you would see that the real revenues of our services, they go up from €55 million last year to €58 million this year. It's actually a growth of 5.5%, which is, far better with what we see then on the EBITDA margin.

The EBITDA margin this year grows from €14.1 to €15.6 million, that's a growth of double just double digit, 10%, and the EBITDA margin grows from 21.4% to 25.0%. Again, it's it's this is thanks on the the increase in the EBITDA margin is basically due to the to to to the mix effect.

We have obviously a reduction of this para-notary activities where I've just given you the idea of how significant the revenues with zero margin are. Therefore, if you take if if they if that part reduces, then obviously the margin, the operating margin in percentage terms goes up.

The reality is that all the all the other activities are are basically also growing. The the overall growth as I said is 5.5%, but we also have, some some margin expansion, not only to the mix effect, but also because we're cleaning houses house in, in some of the smaller businesses, restructuring costs a little bit, and there is the impact of there is also mix effect of some good-margin businesses that are growing faster than others, and and and also the investment in technology and and the use of of GenAI in processes continues.

This is a something that we expect to continue to leverage in in in in in the longer term. At the at the EBIT level, you see that it grows from €7.3 million last year to €8.8 million, and that's a growth of roughly 20%, and the EBIT margin grows from 11.1% to 14.1%.

Let's comment on the different business lines within our BPO and Tech business. As you might remember from last time, we have started to comment on three major lines.

Those are Banking, Leasing, and Insurance, and then we have other initiatives. In Banking, here we see we would we we we we see overall a a decline in revenues because obviously mortgages are here.

Also here, if you take out the notary effect, you would have seen a a growth. Actually higher than than than 5.5%.

Basically what you see, mortgages mortgages obviously are are are declining, but we are happy to to to see our market share growing. We we are penetrating more some of our large existing clients, and we will continue to do that in in the rest of the year.

Loans are growing nicely, that's thanks to a more stable and actually relatively growing market for salary-guaranteed loans, the cessione del quinto. Also there we are seeing an improving our market share.

Wealth is also working well, it's growing. This is a little bit one-off thanks to our technology project.

I've already mentioned it last year, and this continuously contributing with with our the project with our main client. Real estate valuation services are basically stable.

This is actually the sum of a mortgage market going down and our market share going up, but the result is basically a a, it's a minimal growth. In terms of margins, this is this this quarter this this is one of the businesses where we were able to to regain profitability.

Last quarter, we had the impact of the disappearing, the final disappearing of the eco-bonus, so that actually we we had negative margin there. Now we we we we've stabilized this business and it's contributing to to the overall EBITDA.

Leasing confirms a very solid business. As I said, this year, last year we had an incredible year, you might remember that.

We we aim at doing the same results this year, not not not not a significant growth. The growth last year was thanks to some one-off effect that we hope to, substitute with organic growth, and the first quarter is confirming that.

I have to say that, the one-off effects were in the last quarter, we'll see in the last quarter. We we we are on the right track and this Agenzia Italia keeps being, the the the the the EBITDA engine of of our of our division, and and, things things are are going well, and we we we will be introducing new new new new services.

As you all know, there is a, long-term expectation of growth in fleet services and the rental market in Italy, as more and more people and and companies switch switch from owning vehicles to, having those as a service. That's our reference market, independent of the fact that this is done with a leasing or this is done with a with a rental agreement, a long-term rental agreement.

Moltiply Insurance is is is growing slightly over over '25, and we're actually seeing interesting trends in terms of of new of new claims opening. Then, as we all know, this will depend on on on what are the weather events of of the year.

When we will see when we will have weather events, there will be a a an acceleration of growth relative to previous year thanks to the fact that we have now in full effect the the the the the compulsory natural catastrophe insurance. Basically with March, with the end of March and the beginning of April, now the law is in full force.

As it's a law that has not a this this this obligation to to have an insurance doesn't have a strict punishment if you don't do it, I mean not a monetary monetary fee or fine, but what happens is that you cannot take part in any of state aids that that are given in any form if you don't show proof of your of your of your insurance. I tend to believe that this is quite a strong way to to enforce this in the end, because [laughter?]

state aids are small, but they're very widespread, people potentially not want to not want to lose them, but, I cannot say. We'll see that.

Also here overall, and especially if you look at the longer term, it's it's, we we we we are happy with with the forecast, with with what we expect in the in the coming months and in the and and and and in the in the coming years. Just a word on the other revenues, on on on MiaPensione, which, as it's the business that we are dedicated to pension advisory services.

It is growing nicely. It's higher margin than most of our business, and we expect to make it grow even faster than what is doing.

By the way, here the secular trend is obviously all the boomers going into pension, it's it's he's really the bulk of the Italian population right now in terms of, potential market. We we are working on bootstrapping the B2B2C model, basically conveying these services not just, through to to the web, but also through our clients, both banks and the insurance companies or even investment companies.

This is obviously a a service that is interesting for anyone at different price levels depending on obviously which segment of the population you you are, from the mass market to affluent to even, the private market. If you are, an employee and so you you expect to receive the pension from INPS, this is a service that is for you, and it's very it's very technologically it's very technologically very well implemented.

It's a great it's a great addition to to our portfolio. In the coming months, I think it's reasonable to expect similar trends to what we've seen in quarter one.

We'll still see at least for the second quarter a a a very unfavorable comparison to last year for mortgages that eases in the starting the second part of the year. Then we'll see that margin I think I hope we'll continue seeing that that margin expansion.

You have seen it for quite a while now. We have been delivering, close to double-digit growth, if not double-digit growth, in the in in in in the BPO, and that has been mostly organic.

I I think we'll we'll continue seeing this in the next quarters, and this is kind of our objective really, looking forward. Obviously we'll keep looking at, bolt-on acquisitions as we've done, small things that we can, fuel up in terms of growth thanks to our client base or, technological addition.

These are things that we'll continue to look at. All is good on this front, and back to you Marco to further comment the net financial position.

Marco Pescarmona

Yes, thank you. Thanks Alex.

On page 26, you have the evolution of our net financial position. Here we are at the end of March '26 at negative €427 million.

If you look at the evolution over the last year, therefore it has been a steady improvement. Part of it at a certain point was due to the fact that we sold some treasury shares, which generated some cash.

Then from September, October the stock price dropped for fears of the impact on our businesses of artificial intelligence, and we restarted the buyback. Actually we've bought back a significant number of shares, and we were not far from here on March 31st more or less where we were a year before.

You have to check the numbers, but this is really in the end keeping a similar treasury share position end of March '25 and March '26, but please check the numbers. We also have our Money shares.

Here, what happened to Money is similar to what happened to our stock price, they really suffered a lot of de-rating for AI fears, we believe. In fact, this is a financial investment, but we found it so compelling that we increased it a little bit in the first quarter of this year as well.

Here we have 57 million shares, and the financial position net of the Money shares is €329 million. Funny thing is that we have more shares, we have 57 million shares now and they're worth €98 million on March 31st, and we had 44 million shares, so much less, last year, and they were worth €106 million.

We thought they were cheap at the time. Here, I think we have the answers and I think we summarized a lot of our answers in the initial slides of this presentation, but the market still is uncertain about what will happen.

For real, our stock is affected by AI fears, Money is affected by AI fears. We are not too concerned, but it will take a while before clarity emerges on this and the market develops a final understanding of what will happen to different types of companies because of this.

I would say this ends the presentation, and we would open it to questions.

Operator

Thank you. This is the conference operator.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their touchtone telephone.

To remove yourself from the question queue, please press * and 2. Anyone who has a question may press * and 1 at this time.

The first question is from Gabriele Venturi, Banca Akros.

Gabriele Venturi

Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. First, could you please provide some more detail on Verivox contribution rate to revenues this quarter?

In addition, could you give us some more color on Mavrik organic growth rate during the quarter? Second, on a year-on-year basis, could you elaborate on how you expect margins and revenues to evolve in the second quarter on a quantitative basis?

I know it might be early to assess, but if the current environment persists, should we expect a high single-digit or double-digit revenue decline in Mavrik? Finally, regarding re-mortgages, what is the typical EBITDA margin for para-notary services, and what margin level do you believe is achievable overall over the medium term for BPO division?

Thank you.

Marco Pescarmona

Let's try to answer at least qualitatively. Verivox had an impact, I would say you can expect an impact of Verivox in the first quarter of this year similar to the impact of the fourth quarter of last year.

The winter quarters are a bit stronger. I would say, I kind of said it before, but without Verivox, we would still have organic growth within Mavrik, I would say in the neighborhood of 10% plus-minus something.

The rest is the addition of Verivox. This is in terms of EBITDA.

What to expect for the future, I think you can expect that I said we could have a significant year-on-year decline of the EBITDA of Mavrik. We wouldn't say significant for less than 10%, of course.

Of course, this is only affecting energy, I think it's reasonable to expect something which is between -10% and -20% for Mavrik, but we really have to see how it evolves. This is already more than what we usually say.

Then do we have anything else in terms of questions for Mavrik? Or shall we go to

Alessandro Fracassi

Yeah, Alessandro. On the notary services, okay, roughly 10% at the EBITDA level, maybe a little less.

The question was, how much is the EBITDA on the para-notary services? On what's the long-term target for the BPO, well, let's say we've been saying in the past that our long-term effort is to get the EBITDA to 25%.

We're there now, at least this quarter. Then obviously depends on the business mix.

As you see, I am actually very happy when the refinancing explodes, because it's true that, as I just said, it's a lower-margin business, but all of that it's variable. There is absolutely no problem in scaling down the business when the revenues go down.

We just don't pay the notaries anymore. Internal fixed costs are limited.

It's a business that is really similar to all the others, and it's a great business. I hope it to be big, but it will impact when it's big what are the percentage margin.

Anyway, in the longer term, I do expect to see some margin expansion, and that will be driven by AI and scale effects as we grow our presence in clients and in verticals. Then obviously a part of that will have to be given back to clients, and this is a positive reinforcing cycle.

We will be able to offer better products and at lower prices, and I hope the clients then will want to buy more, as I mentioned last time when we talked about the impact of AI. I hope to see a growth that, in my mind, I hope to see up to a 500 basis points growth over the next 5 years in terms of our margin expansion.

We'll see, okay?

Gabriele Venturi

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Aleksandra Arsova, Equita.

Aleksandra Arsova

Hi. Good afternoon.

Thank you for taking my questions. A couple of follow-up questions with respect to what you said before.

Just can you remind us of what was the speed of recovery of the energy business last time in 2022-2023? Once there was a sort of normalization and declining energy prices, how many months or quarters did it take to fully recover the business?

Just to understand what could be the speed in case of reopening of the Hormuz Strait and then the situation is over then. The second one, if I can maybe, let's say, sensitivity to model better the next quarters, assuming that the energy situation is limited to let's say the second quarter, do you believe you will be able to broadly achieve we have in consensus of roughly €200 million or slightly above, I believe it's the consensus, €200 million EBITDA for the full year?

Thank you.

Marco Pescarmona

Okay. The speed of recovery, well, it's a different situation from the situation of Ukraine, because in that case, the energy market in Germany was shut, whereas now it's fully functioning.

The type of recovery is different. The type of recovery we would expect is a situation where we have a reopening of Hormuz, an initial drop in energy prices, and then steadily they possibly drop a little bit more, but there is a first steep drop when they announce that an agreement has been reached, the strait is reopened, and so on.

We would expect that we could have a spike, not as strong as the spike that we saw in the first weeks of March, but we could have a good spike of demand in the very initial months. We could even have a strong quarter then.

Not only growth, but stronger than normal. This is what we would expect.

What happened when the energy crisis was over in Germany was a reopening of the market that started during '23 and was at the peak in Q4 of '23 and Q1 of '24. Those were really strong, but the market had been closed, and it was more prolonged.

Here I would expect something that is a softer spike, yes, but not as strong, and maybe concentrated in only one quarter. Then, if they reopen in June, possibly in September people will have forgotten and it would be a peak season as originally expected.

Here really the question is how long this will last. My guess is that once it finishes, we are almost immediately back to normal.

How long this will last, every month we lose some opportunity, let's say, or we are not able to run at normal speed. In terms of consensus, if BPO is doing well, if it's only one quarter, I think that's still feasible.

The key question is if we have only one quarter of energy disruption or if we have longer. That would be the driver.

If it's only one quarter, that's still possibly within reach.

Aleksandra Arsova

Thank you. Clear.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press * and 1 on your telephone. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press * and 1 on your telephone.

Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for any closing remarks.

Marco Pescarmona

Okay. Thank you for the participation, for the questions.

Let me summarize by saying that we are quite happy with how the business performed until the end of February. We are executing, we think, pretty well in all respects.

We are accelerating things. We are integrating well our recent acquisitions.

We are deploying AI to improve productivity, to improve our services. Everything is going well from what we can influence.

Then, now we are at the mercy of external events, and you have to be a bit patient, but we believe we are continuing to be the great company and have confidence for what is in the future. Thank you.

Alessandro Fracassi

Thank you, everyone.

Gabriele Venturi

Thank you, bye. Bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.