Afentra PLC

Afentra PLC

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Apr 28Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 19, 2026

Paul McDade

Welcome everyone to our results presentation. The plan this afternoon is I'll give some introduction, particularly focusing on our strategic review, which we concluded, and a bit of a look forward.

I'll hand over to Ian Cloke, our COO, who will run you through the operations and the growth opportunities, and then Anastasia will give some background on our refinancing and other areas of financing the business, and then I'll come back to wrap up at the end. If we look at slide 3 in the presentation, the company's now been working for about 5 years since our inception, and as you're aware, as was announced to the market around April, we actually had a strategic review ongoing for the last 4 or 5 months.

I wanted to just kind of explain the rationale for why we made that strategic review and why we've made the decisions we have and announced last week at our results announcement. In late '25, after 5 years of successful growth, we had built a significant portfolio.

You can see on the picture on the right, both the offshore blocks, which we expanded at the end of last year to include Block 3/23, 24, and then the onshore, KON 15, 19, and again, we're just finalizing the conclusion to add KON 4 to the onshore. Very significant portfolio.

A lot of upside production growth potential within the portfolio, and obviously, the opportunity to build out that second hub on the onshore Kwanza Basin. We continued to pursue further license and acquisition opportunities, and we still really had a bit of a first-mover advantage within Angola.

We sat in December last year, we decided that, with this significant portfolio that required capital to really grow the production and the revenue and the value to maximize value for shareholders, we didn't feel that the external macro environment was lending itself to maximizing the value for shareholders. If we look at what was happening at that time, we had an oil price of about $65 with general commentators thinking it's going to go into the $50s.

We certainly didn't think the market, where our share price was in that mid- to high-30s, was nowhere reflecting the value of the portfolio and the team within the share price. Asset market in Angola was quite heated and was showing quite high offers for some blocks that were up for sale that valuation was not reflected certainly in our share price.

Whilst the debt markets were open, there was a limited amount of flexibility because of the oil price outlook. We decided that we should be completely open to all opportunities to maximize value for shareholders, and therefore, we started the strategic review.

We explored all opportunities as well as remaining an independent company. We looked at maybe there's strategic investors who'd be willing to come in and invest in the company and accelerate the growth of the portfolio.

The other opportunity could take the company private or actually an outright sale of the company. We were open-minded to all of these options.

As we kind of announced last week, we've completed the process, and in terms of the outcome, we had very significant interest in the company, in the assets, and actually in the Afentra team. However, we didn't think the offers that were made truly valued and reflected the value in the portfolio and the significant upside we'll talk to today, never mind the ability to further expand the portfolio over the coming years.

In parallel with the process, the team were continuing very much on a business-as-usual basis. The reason we were able to decide last week to carry on as an independent company was because of all that hard work around the business as usual, and there was several key factors that helped the board make the decision to stay independent and pursue the next phase of growth.

If I summarize those, it was the very successful and attractive refinancing that Anastasia will talk about. It was the acceleration of the drilling and the upside opportunities in that drilling, and also the very attractive carry that we receive from Sonangol, our operator, for that drilling.

We felt like the share price is just starting to reflect some of the value within the portfolio. We've seen a good uptick in the share price so far, but we feel there's much much more to go.

Obviously, with the recent events in the Middle East, we've had some short-term windfall in terms of the April cargo and the sale of that cargo at much inflated oil price. Also, when you look at the general macro environment, we sit in a world that is very different to the end of 2025, and I think the outlook for energy and oil particularly has changed dramatically to the positive.

Based on all these factors, we decided as a board that we would continue on into phase two of Afentra. You can see on the slide, today we're sitting with production of about 6,500 barrels a day, very material 2P and particularly 2C, a very strong consensus NAV, considering the $40 million that the company started with.

Ian and Anastasia will discuss the key drivers that we expect to deliver the value creation outcomes that we present on this slide in terms of production growth to over 20,000 barrels a day, material increase in asset cash generation as we increase production and create more efficiency on that massive asset and continue to add value. Let me pass over to Ian to start walking through some of that upside, and I will reflect on the outcomes when I sum up at the end.

Ian Cloke

Thank you, Paul. If we go to slide 5, thank you, Barry.

This has the offshore and the onshore left and right. The portfolio we've built offers material upside.

We don't have to compete with others to buy production. We have our own organic growth levers.

Offshore on the left, the multicoloured chart demonstrates identified projects to take us up to and exceeding 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day net by 2030. It leverages existing infrastructure, and from an exploration perspective, we've barely scratched the surface.

The last offshore well exploring was 1993. I'll walk you through some of those projects that contribute to this growth.

On the right is the onshore. We've built a position here in an under-explored basin.

The last exploration well here was 1982. We've recorded the EFTG over the whole of the Kwanza, and we will be acquiring 2D seismic in the second half of this year.

We also have legacy produced fields, which we can reactivate near term. Summarizing the slide up, we have offshore scale, we have onshore optionality, and both underpin the forward growth profile.

Let's walk through some of the projects. Just a reminder of the cornerstone offshore position we've been building since 2021, and we will continue to look to expand it.

The new to add here is to put it in perspective as if it was a North Sea asset, and you can see on the bottom right, this would rank second in remaining volumes across the entire UKCS. Our current 2P is 106 million barrels.

We have 2C resources of 250 million barrels and 550 Bcf. There's the ability within our existing asset base to double our 2P.

Next slide. Just a brief update on the infrastructure upgrades.

Since '22, we have invested a considerable amount in the life extension, rejuvenation of these assets. All numbers on here are shown gross.

We're two-thirds of the way through it, and you can read the progress on the bottom. The key point here is we have the infrastructure capacity of around 200,000 barrels of liquid per day.

We're currently flowing around 75,000. Investment's nearly complete, and we've got the capacity to accommodate and maximize production.

Move on to some of the projects. Start off with Picasso Southwest.

This is where we're drilling right now. We spudded in April, early April, and we're drilling from an existing platform, the PF-4, using the Borr Natt jackup.

Drilling is estimated to last about 90 days, which puts results into late June. What are we targeting here?

Undrilled fault block adjacent to the giant Picasso field. Oil in place of the structures between 32 and 210 million barrels.

It's well-defined. We have highly productive offset wells, and it's on a proven migration pathway that charged Picasso.

In a success case, initial gross rate of in excess of 5,000 barrels per day. The well cost is fully carried by Sonangol.

First oil here is targeted for Q3 2026. If it works, potentially up to three additional wells.

The resource potential could be up to 70 million barrels recoverable. A successful well here could trigger development of an entirely new southwest Picasso field.

Given the oil price at the moment, the Sonangol rig was a great opportunity to accelerate this well. As I said, it's drilling from an existing platform, tie-in is quick, it's material, it has some risk, but this could also significantly increase reserves and production.

Move on to the next slide. To put this field in broader context, the Picasso field has got greater than 1.1 billion barrels of oil in place, of which 520 million barrels has been recovered.

The top chart, top right in dark blue is the current production, and then the different gradations of blue are upside future work programs. At 10,000 barrels a day, the activities that we're describing could double this to over 20.

Underlying 2P reserves, if you look at the bottom of the slide, of 51.5 million barrels. Picasso Southwest alone could double the existing fields.

If you add the wells along the bottom, 2U and 2C, and the hydraulic workovers, we can more than double the 2P to 106 million barrels. That's without further upside in infill drilling and attic oil.

It's a giant field, and it's got a lot still to give. The second example is Impala.

This is likely to be the second well. We'll finalize the results of Picasso Southwest first, then decide.

It's a great example of the upside that exists within this vast asset. We're drilling in the middle of a proven field.

The target, Impala 2, is in the red box. There's a substantial amount of oil in place, somewhere between 60 and 200 million barrels.

Only about 12 million barrels has been recovered to date. The upside here is up to 50 million barrels.

Recovery rate is extremely low, and that's the opportunity. We're targeting 4,000 barrels initial rate, again carried by Sonangol, first oil Q4 2026, development potential of up to 50 million barrels recoverable with up to three additional wells.

If you go to the next slide, we've got, again, similar to what we had on Picasso, we have Impala, Impala Southeast, with yellow around showing the exploration potential, the production curve on the right, and then the resources that go with this. In the dark blue, that's Impala Southeast.

We're currently producing about 3,000 barrels a day. Impala 2 and full field development, there's potential to increase this to up to 15,000 or over 15,000 barrels a day.

As you can see, we're also quite cautious on the timing of drilling given we've been measured on CapEx spend to date. There is possibility to accelerate those wells.

You'll hear more from us on this once we have digested the Impala 2 results. At the bottom, you can see the reserves or the resources.

So 2P reserves via wells and the hydraulic workovers can more than increase the potential by five times. Further upside expected in infill drilling, attic, and flank, and as shown on the top left, there's exploration in the yellow on the map, which we've not included.

The other thing to highlight here is the Impala Southeast area. We've started looking at the southern area redevelopment.

That could require a small additional platform to unlock what could be another Impala-sized opportunity. Early days, but very encouraging.

Moving on to the next one, we'll talk about the hydraulic workover program and using Palanca as an example. As well as the new drilling, the other major component of near-term production growth is the hydraulic workover program.

We've previously talked in the past about the large well stock that we have across the asset, wells shut in due to integrity issues, gas lift failures, and this is all recoverable barrels sitting idle. We're expecting this program to start later in the year as Sonangol are in the process of tendering.

You'll see the results in late '27, early '28. That's just the start.

We've screened over 20 opportunities in 3/05 alone. It's a repeatable, multi-year program with recoverable potential of 10 to 25 million barrels.

If we look at the next slide, it shows the potential of the Palanca field. The production is slightly less material, but look what can be done at Palanca just as one example.

We're producing just over 1,000 barrels a day, 1.3 thousand 1.3 at the moment, and the potential here is to increase to over 5,000 barrels a day. The reserves sit at 13, but with hydraulic workover, infill, you can more than triple the current reserves to a 2P of over 35 million barrels.

Move on to Block 3/24, which is a near-term development opportunity. We talked a little bit about this earlier in the year.

It's a step-change opportunity in the near term, awarded in October and fast-tracked. It's our first operatorship.

The asset consists of lower-GOR oil. They're existing wells, which we can re-enter, and it sits close to existing infrastructure with spare capacity.

The initial GPQ development targets around 10,000 barrels a day, FID targeted for late this year, and it leverages the existing infrastructure. 3/24, we've got existing discoveries, expect a second phase of development, and the exploration, well, we've barely started on it.

The last well here was 1993. Every well apart from one has found oil on this block, and we're considering a new 3D to unlock this.

In summary, we've got offshore potential to take from 6,000 barrels a day net to over 20,000 barrels a day, and what I've shown you is not even comprehensive. We'll move on to the onshore.

Here, the way to think about the onshore is it's a very different story. The Kwanza is different in that it is not a new basin.

It actually produced volumes back in the '60s and '70s before onshore activity largely stopped due to periods of instability and the capital shifted. The basin's seen very limited drilling for decades and no application of modern subsurface technology, and why today it stands out as a large under-explored basin rather than a depleted basin.

On this slide here, you've got Onshore Gabon or Lower Congo Basin. These are basins that have had an undisturbed exploration history, hundreds of wells drilled, billions of barrels discovered and produced, and they're probably still a bit underexplored.

The Kwanza, by contrast, has had limited drilling, less than 100 million barrels produced, and yet has a similar basin scale. Question here for us is not about if there's oil here, it is.

It's where it is and how much and how quickly it can be unlocked. The next slide talks us through our exploration pipeline for the onshore.

One of the most important things we've learned over the last years is the exploration process. The team that we have here in Afentra has explored successfully across Uganda, Kenya, Congo.

It's a systematic and methodological approach. We record eFTG first, and then we shoot the 2D in the right place.

We rank the prospects, we select the right ones to drill. On the slide here on the left, you've got some eFTG across one of our blocks here, and we're expecting to drill potentially here in 2027.

Move on to the next slide. The other thing what makes the Kwanza interesting is that it isn't just a greenfield exploration story.

There are other areas where oil has already been found and produced, but then effectively left behind. An example we've got here is the Quenguela Norte, a large oil field of at least 200 million barrels oil in place, to date maybe 20% recovery factor.

It was abandoned producing 1,000 barrels a day when oil hit $8 a barrel back in 1998. If you think about onshore US, the advances they've made has transformed the oil production over there.

Our concept is simply to take some of those techniques, apply them to onshore Africa, and bring Quenguela Norte and some of the other ones back into commercial production. We're aiming to get this onstream in 2027.

Just simple, proven techniques applied here, not over there. The next one talks and summarizes up the Kwanza onshore.

We've built a position here at very low cost. We're excited about it, and we're just starting to get into the interesting activity.

What you'll find is we will continue to look at building this out on our opposition onshore. We have the whole basin covered in eFTG, which enables us to evaluate and rank other blocks.

The next slide just takes us through some of our milestones and catalysts across the remainder of '26 and '27 and '28: drilling results, FIDs, first oils, seismic programs. Pretty busy period ahead.

Just moving on to my last slide, and then we'll pass over to Anastasia. Afentra is at a very clear inflection point, growing from 6 to over 13 to 20,000 barrels a day net.

Over the past few years, we focused on building the foundations, stabilizing production, upgrading facilities, building a deep technical understanding of the asset base. Offshore, we're expecting significant growth in production and reserves, and I've shared a couple of those examples.

Exploration, we're really encouraged by it, and I expect to see us expand this around our 3/05 core. Onshore is about early revenue whilst exploring in parallel.

We believe it's not if it's there, it's that the oil is there, but where it is. We'll continue to grow our portfolio selectively.

We continue to look for the right production acquisition, but with discipline. We won't get caught up in deal frenzy, and we'll continue to look at other West African countries to replicate the success that we've had in Angola.

In summary, multiple growth levers on a strong base program, and we continue to find upside across the portfolio. With that, I'll pass over to Anastasia to talk you through the finance side.

Anastasia Deulina

Thank you, Ian, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today.

I will talk about the financial framework of Afentra and how we are positioned for the next phase of growth from the financial perspective. A quick recap of the journey of our balance sheet, going back to our beginnings in May 2021.

When we took over Sterling Energy, with the acquisition came $40 million of cash. Fast forward to now, having started this business 5 years ago, we now produce 6,000 barrels of oil a day from a resource base of 120 million barrels equivalent and a consensus NAV in the range of $350 to $450 million.

What are the key ingredients of our success? It's the depth of experience of our team.

We have deep West Africa expertise that Ian spoke about and proven capital markets experience. Secondly, it's our measured and disciplined M&A strategy.

We completed three transactions in Angola with one acquisition pending completion in the near future. We have also secured four license awards in that time.

Third point is our success with the approach to how we finance our business. We have secured fit-for-purpose debt packages aligned with our strategy.

In a minute, I will talk about the refinancing that we have completed recently. Finally, it's our capital discipline, with leverage staying low throughout the period, with no equity dilution throughout the period.

In short, in the 5 years since inception, we have delivered material shareholder value while maintaining strict capital discipline. The following slide, please, Barry.

On slide 23, we present financial highlights of 2025, and we'll also talk about the momentum we have as a business going into 2026. 2025 was a year of strong operational and financial performance and also a year of material increase in our contingent resources across the offshore portfolio.

Despite softer commodity prices, we maintained strong momentum. We made substantial capital investments, advancing revamping work towards completion, and we laid out the groundwork for a very active 2026.

Post-period, in the first 4 months of this year, we already realized $90 million in revenue through the two liftings in January and April, compared against $114 million for the full year 2025. Picasso Southwest well had been spud in April on a full-carry basis by Sonangol, and also we secured a prepay facility with Gunvor, which I will talk about in a minute.

Through cash generation, disciplined execution, and secured financing, we're well positioned for the long-term growth strategy. The following slide, please, Barry, slide 24, where I'll talk about the new offtake facility, which was a collective effort of a number of our people across the organization and is the result of a comprehensive, competitive refinancing process we ran from the beginning of this year.

At the start of the process, we had a number of objectives to achieve. We wanted to secure a facility of over $100 million in size.

We wanted to lower cost of capital. We also wanted to realign offtake costs to market to reflect the more advanced nature of our business.

Finally, our objective was to achieve funding flexibility to fund organic growth, development, and selective inorganic opportunities. We're happy to report that we achieved all of these objectives.

The new Gunvor prepay facility is a $125 million, four-year facility with pricing based on SOFR plus 6%, a material improvement over our prior facility. Reduced interest costs and improved marketing netbacks reflect the more mature nature of our business.

Unlike our previous RBL facility, which was specifically designed to only fund acquisitions of Block 3/05 and 3/05A interests, the new facility has the flexibility we require to fund our growing business, it has materiality we need to maintain investment optionality, and is also designed to expand with our future production growth. Moving on to slide 25, we included additional details of the prepay facility.

This facility replaces both the RBL and the working capital facility. It extends maturities and it supports funding of the near-term work program.

While the facility is secured on our producing assets, it offers us the flexibility to direct the funds to projects across our larger portfolio, including both onshore and offshore. There is also an uncommitted accordion feature that would allow us to expand with the anticipated production growth from the assets.

This scaling feature is very important to us, as the more success we have, the more financing we would require to continue to grow our business and to grow our cash flow generation. Despite the step change in our funding profile, we remain committed to maintaining a conservative balance sheet.

We've kept our leverage low since inception with a conservative funding structure for all acquisitions. Despite access to the much larger facility, our low leverage objective stays the same for the next phase of growth.

We will adapt and we will manage sources and uses of funding to preserve the integrity and the strength of our balance sheet. Turning to the following slide, 26, where I will talk about the offtake strategy.

With the current full cost recovery pool and an active investment campaign, partners get allocation of around 85% of all crude produced. In our case, we get approximately 2.3 million barrels of crude to lift this year based on the current production rate.

That includes inventory carried into this year from 2025. Through the ongoing marketing agreement, we market our crude jointly with our partner in the block, Maurel & Prom, as well as with certain Block 2/05 producers.

This allows us to have four to five liftings a year, which leads us to smooth the cash flow profile throughout the year. In addition, in a time of extreme volatility, it allowed us to benefit from the recent spike with April cargo realization of nearly $120 a barrel.

Year to date, we have lifted close to 1 million barrels of crude, and we have three liftings remaining this year. Looking into 2027 and '28, with the material production upside that Ian spoke about, we could be doubling our lifted volumes by 2028 through the increased number of liftings throughout the year.

Turning to the following slide, 27, I'll talk about the hedging strategy. The cornerstone of our approach to hedging was ensuring that we have disciplined hedging strategy that allows us to secure downside while preserving the upside exposure.

Our new lender, Gunvor, is very much aligned with our views on the hedging strategy. In the second half of last year, we temporarily suspended our hedging as we considered that the market was not offering us adequate levels of protection in the context of then available pricing.

At the moment, approximately 44% of our forecasted 2026 sales have been hedged through a combination of puts and collars, providing downside protection while retaining meaningful upside exposure. Our July and September cargoes have been hedged through the collar structures with the floors of $62 to $64 a barrel and caps of $78 to $79 on 53% of the anticipated offtake, leaving 47% uncapped.

We will gradually return back to the market and we'll look to layer in hedges from Q4 2026 onwards in line with market conditions and capital requirements. Turning over to slide 28, where we will look at the impact of the OpEx synergies.

The graphic on the left side of the slide we used in our prior presentations, pointing to the fact that with the largely fixed OpEx base, the anticipated increases in production would lead to material reduction in our unit operating costs per barrel, driving very material uplift in asset-level cash generation. We now took this analysis one step forward, and what you see here is a graphical depiction on the right of what material difference the OpEx synergies could deliver for our business as production grows from the asset.

As you can see here, with the production increases between now and 2030, with each barrel produced, more of our revenue will turn into free cash flow. The overall aggregate impact would of course be even greater if you take into account our projected doubling of production.

Finally, on slide 29, I want to talk about the impact of the asset cash flow generation of the anticipated investment campaign we plan to undertake in the upcoming 2 to 3 years. As Ian discussed, we plan to increase our production levels from current 6,000 barrels to double that level by 2028.

Our new prepayment facility is a backbone of our external debt financing we will utilize to fund our growth objectives alongside our asset cash flow. Near term, $200 million investment would fund high-return development, delivering step change in production and significant cash generation from 2028, with strong leverage to higher prices.

In this illustrative example, we show that a $70 per barrel pre-CapEx asset cash flow generation is anticipated to rise from $57 million in 2025 to potentially more than tripling in 2028, and could be materially higher if oil prices stay at elevated levels. In conclusion, I would summarize by saying that 2025 was a year of strong delivery, both financially and operationally.

We consolidated our asset base and we expanded our presence through acquisition of additional licenses. 2026 shaping up as a great year for Afentra.

In two liftings to date, we realized over $90 million in revenue. We secured a carry from Sonangol on the two-well drilling campaign, and we also refinanced our debt facilities from $31 million into new $125 million facility, secured by the same asset base as before.

For the time being, oil prices appear to be staying robust in the near term, underpinning revenue generation later this year. The financial framework we built—disciplined, conservative, and now scaled for growth—gives us the platform to deliver everything you have just heard about.

With that, I will hand over to Paul for his closing remarks.

Paul McDade

Thanks, Anastasia. Hopefully this afternoon what we've been able to show you is from Anastasia's presentation, the significant step forward we've taken in terms of the financial footing of the company and the support we have for the investments we plan to make across both the offshore and the onshore assets.

As Ian's highlighted, the offshore we have organic potential today that we recognize today that can take us to over 20,000 barrels a day, and certainly in the short term, double production by around 2028. There is a lot of upside within those offshore assets, and I think every year as we review the assets, mature our thinking, we identify further potential upside, I'd expect more even to come from those assets through the passage of time.

Obviously, the first two wells are going to be important, and it's good to have those catalysts out there where we're going to see some results as soon as June this year, only six weeks away. The onshore is equally exciting in terms of upside.

As Ian highlighted, a proven hydrocarbon basin that's almost been frozen in time for 40 years, and again, it's interesting, particularly the exploration upside potential, but also the fact that we could have revenue from that basin from the Quenguela Norte field as soon as 2027. As always, as Ian again highlighted, we continue to look at opportunities for new business, whether that be new additional licenses, which we consider to be just as attractive as M&A.

The Block 3/24 had a cost of about $100,000 licensing fee, and as Ian highlighted, we expect phase one of that block to deliver potentially 10,000 barrels a day. Very good new business, and we are seeking to acquire more licenses within Angola.

We also continue to monitor the M&A market, and where we see the opportunity to secure further accretive assets, then we will do so. Let me pause there, and I'll hand over to Christine for any questions we may have.

Christine Wootliff

Yes, thank you, Paul. We have a couple of questions coming in.

One on production growth. Afentra's production is supposed to grow to around 10,000 BOPD.

When are we expected to see this incremental supply come online? Maybe Ian, do you want to answer that?

Ian Cloke

Sure. The 10,000 barrels a day net is a '27 target, not '26.

As we look out, we're expecting the production to double by 2028 and continue rising. It obviously is linked and dependent on activity.

We drill a well, it will grow production, and the key thing then is the timing of those activities.

Christine Wootliff

We have a question on M&A. On M&A, we were told to expect more M&A this year compared to 2025.

Paul, do you want

Paul McDade

to Let me answer that. I think as we always say, we screen both within Angola and across more broadly West Africa for M&A opportunities.

I think what we need to differentiate here is the assets we have and the growth potential that we've demonstrated today, which is very significant, is within our control, and we can deliver that growth. The thing about M&A is one has to be opportunistic, and it's not within your control.

We are very active. We continually screen opportunities.

As I say, I see 3/24 as a good piece of effectively M&A, KON 4, which we're hoping to secure over the next few months and sign and get underway with pursuing production KON 4, I see in the same vein, but we do look for other M&A opportunities in the current market. A

Christine Wootliff

couple of questions on the Kwanza. One, any further thought on acquiring more in the Kwanza?

Then also a question on whether we can be a little bit more precise on when drilling can start in 2027, Ian?

Ian Cloke

Certainly. Probably address the Kwanza one.

Start off with, we were one of, if not the only people to purchase the whole of the EFTG covering the Kwanza, so that covers about 25,000 square kilometers, and we've got that in house, we're using it, we're scanning it, we're getting an understanding of it to evaluate additional opportunities. We'll use that to look to expand into the right licenses in the right places.

That's onshore, and potential expansion in the future. In terms of KON 4, see that the award is expected in the near future, but we've been working it already.

We've had the eFTG in. It's showing some undrilled structures.

From an exploration perspective, in the Quenguela Norte area, we've been ranking re-entry wells, identifying US onshore techniques that we can deploy in onshore Africa, and looking at skid-mounted facilities to move the production. We'll look to bring it on properly once we get awarded, second half of '27.

Christine Wootliff

We had also a couple of questions on hedging, and whether we could maybe explain a little bit further how our hedgings work, in relation to slide number 27. I have Antonio here in the room, who is the Head of Commercial, and he'll perhaps can talk about that.

Antonio Kofi Annor Fernandes

Thank you, Christine. Slide 27 is designed to provide a high-level overview of Afentra's 2026 hedge position, focusing on the balance between the downside protection and the retained upside exposure, all shown in percentage terms.

Now, for a more detailed breakdown of the individual hedges, including the structures, pricing, and associated volumes, we will refer you to slide 32 in the appendix.

Christine Wootliff

Okay. We had also a question on macro.

It doesn't feel like the UAE's exit of OPEC has been fully priced in on a 12 months basis, as the Hormuz closure continues to eclipse all else. What's the board's longer-term view on softer oil prices?

Paul, do you want to

Paul McDade

I think the reason we started Afentra was because in as early as 2020 and 2021, we saw long-term requirement for oil and gas in the energy transition, way out to 2050 and beyond. We remain very positive in terms of oil demand.

In terms of actual oil pricing, even in the short period that the company has been around over the last 5 years, we've seen quite some volatility. I think rather than trying to guess what the oil price will be in the future, I think it behooves the board and the management, importantly, to make sure that we run the company in a prudent basis.

We seek, when we're doing acquisitions, to manage both the upside potential that may come from those acquisitions, but also protect the company from a downside scenario. Also, as Antonio mentioned, we actively use the hedging market.

It's amazing how when we were in a world as we are just now, people can very quickly forget that only 5, 6 months ago we were anticipating pricing of $55 or $60 a barrel. Who knows what the oil price will be.

I think over the medium term, we're quite bullish on the upside potential of the oil market, and we'll continue to build the business, but we'll do it in a prudent way that protects us against the downside, but tries to expose our shareholders as much as possible to the upside.

Christine Wootliff

Thank you. We had also a question on what is the chances of success on the current wells?

Maybe Ian, you can provide further details.

Ian Cloke

Certainly. In the presentation, I think we've got for the Picasso Southwest, there's about a 60% chance of success, and that's on the three-way closure.

It is a combination four-way with three-way for the upside. On Impala, well, we're actually drilling Impala 2 within and above the oil-water contact, we're drilling within a proven oil field.

For Impala 2, the question is more about what is the actual pressure that we will find in the reservoir, which determines the rates.

Christine Wootliff

Question on strategic review. Were the offers received during the strategic review in excess of the recent high share price?

Paul McDade

I can't disclose exactly what the offers were, so that's not something we're planning to disclose into the market. However, what I can say, when we were making our decision and trying to assess those offers that were made, the way to deliver value from our portfolio is to accelerate activity.

Our ability to accelerate activity as an independent company has improved dramatically, both through actions we've taken, the refinancing that Anastasia spoke about, the negotiation and securing of the carry on the two wells, and then obviously the impact of the macro environment, where we're seeing short-term windfall from the cargoes we're selling at the moment and a more bullish outlook on oil pricing. You bring those things together, that's what made us determine that actually we can deliver more of the upside value for our shareholders by continuing to pursue the activities we've just spoken about this afternoon, rather than accepting the offers that were on the table.

Christine Wootliff

One more question for you, Paul, perhaps. Any thoughts on share buybacks or dividends?

Paul McDade

I think we've kind of said consistently that in the short, medium term, we're very much focused on growth. As I talk to our investors and prospective investors, I think they look at Afentra as a growth stock and expect further growth in the share price.

When we got involved with this company back in 2021, the share price was hovering around 10 to 12 pence. Currently today, it's somewhere around 70, and it's certainly our expectation that we will push on from this level and continue to deliver value through growth to our shareholders.

However, in the longer term, we're very much focused on building a portfolio that could support some combination of buybacks and dividends at the time that's appropriate.

Christine Wootliff

Thank you. One question on the Gunvor facility, maybe for Antonio.

What is the seniority of the new Gunvor facility, where do the other funding partners rank in terms of subordination?

Antonio Kofi Annor Fernandes

Thank you, Christine. Basically, the new Gunvor facility refinances the existing facility, the RBL.

In terms of seniority, we would only have the Gunvor facility in place, and this is a senior secured financing, which is asset-backed by our production.

Christine Wootliff

One last question if nothing else comes through. This is maybe for Paul.

The management team has successfully achieved many targets, milestones set out, yet many investors feel Afentra to be undervalued given the potential significant upside in the near-term future. What are the steps which can be undertaken to tell the story of Afentra?

Paul McDade

It's a good question. Look, I think we've worked diligently.

We've communicated to the market on a consistent basis for 5 years. Certainly, as I mentioned, when we looked at our share price last year, relative to potential value intrinsically in the company, we felt we were very much underperforming.

I think with the continued communications and patience and working with the market, in many ways, whether it be in social media or through our RNSs, or other methods of webinars such as this, in a good, consistent, clear, transparent communication with the market, we have seen material improvement in our share price, both pre the war in the Middle East, and then obviously subsequent to that, we've pushed on even further. I think what you'll see us continue to do is look for ways to continue to improve our communication with the market, make sure that we're putting as much information out there as possible, being as transparent as we can be, and trying to be very clear on the vision and the targets and objectives of the management team for Afentra in the future.

Operator

That's great.

Christine Wootliff

Can

Operator

I just jump back in then? Thank you all for addressing those questions from investors today.

Paul, before we direct investors to provide you with their feedback, which is particularly important to yourself and the company, could I just please ask you for a few closing comments?

Paul McDade

Yes, I'd just like to say thank you to everyone who took the time to join us today live to listen to the webinar, and for those that ultimately listen to the recording, thanks for taking the time, to our shareholders for being very supportive over the last 5 years. Hopefully today, we've given you some insight into the activities that we've been pursuing, the hard work of the team, and the real potential for the share price and the company to grow significantly over the coming months and years.

We have some long-term opportunities, but we also have some very important short-term catalysts, particularly Picasso Southwest, Impala, and then the subsequent workovers that will come later in the year. Thank you for taking the time.

We will continue to keep you updated through follow webinars and communications to the market. Good afternoon.

Operator

Fantastic. Thank you once again for updating investors today.

Could I please ask investors not to close this session, as you will now be automatically redirected to provide your feedback, which will help the company better understand your views and expectations. On behalf of the management team, we would like to thank you for attending today's presentation, and good afternoon to you.