Good morning and welcome to the presentation of AIB Group's results for 2025, a landmark year for our company. I'm going to spend some time outlining the macroeconomic backdrop and giving an overview of the progress on our '23 to '26 strategy, before handing over to Donal, our CFO, who will bring us through the details of our financial performance.

2025 was another year of successful delivery by AIB Group against our strategic objectives, priorities, and targets. We're pleased to be delivering a profit after tax of over €2.1 billion, representing a RoTE of 25%.

In a looser monetary policy environment, our NII remained resilient, coming in ahead of expectations at €3.75 billion. The strength of our financial performance and the scale of organic capital generation allowed us to grow our business, to invest in our business, and to propose total distributions of €2.25 billion, a payout ratio of 105%, while still delivering an exceptionally strong capital outturn with CET1 ending the year at 16.2%.

And 2025 was the year that AIB returned to full private ownership, having returned a cumulative circa €21 billion to the Irish state. It was a landmark year, a year of progress and closure, a year that positions us to build an ever-better, ever-stronger, trusted AIB in the interest of all our stakeholders, and the economies, and the communities that we serve.

We remain resolutely committed to the sustainability agenda, an agenda that sits at the core of our strategy and at the very heart of our purpose. We're making good progress towards meeting our long-established 2030 targets, with almost €23 billion of green and transition lending deployed since 2019, and last year's new green lending reached an all-time high for us of 43% of all new lending, well on track to hit the 70% target we've set for ourselves.

We're also continuing to decarbonize our own business, with 92% of our electricity needs sourced from our virtual power purchase agreement from the output of two solar farms. The scale of the environmental and social lending opportunity and our excellent credentials in this space create the platform for continued success in ESG bond issuance, and I'm very proud of the fact that AIB is now one of the world's leading issuers of ESG paper globally.

Our confidence in the outlook for AIB in 2026 and beyond is underpinned by continuing solid and consistent performance by the Irish economy. Growth in modified domestic demand surprised somewhat on the upside in 2025, and it's expected to hover around 2.5% to 3% over the next few years, a rate of expansion that is reasonable in an Irish context and stellar compared to our neighboring economies across the Irish Sea and indeed further afield.

Our population continues to grow and it's likely to exceed 6 million in the next decade, and our labor force exceeded 2.8 million people at the end of last year, representing an increase of an incredible 59% since 2000. Now that demographic bounty is a key driver of Ireland's economic success, and it creates a very positive operating backdrop for AIB, Ireland's leading financial institution.

While we've seen remarkable growth in the numbers at work and in the country's GDP, the balance sheets of the country, businesses, households, individuals are all very conservatively positioned. Net government debt fell to 40% of gross national income last year, and the downward trajectory is expected to remain a feature of the budgetary landscape over the coming years.

Now the government is in a very strong position to deliver on its ambitious National Development Plan, which will see €275 billion deployed in building a world-class public and social infrastructure here over the next decade. Meanwhile, households continue to delever, with debt-to-disposable income running at about 40% of the post-GFC peak, with the savings ratio running at 15%, an indicator which is very well reflected in our own liabilities performance.

Ireland remains a preferred destination for foreign direct investment. Now we will, of course, continue monitoring the international trade climate, but it's only fair to say that the performance in 2025 surprised on the upside both in terms of investment and also in terms of export volumes.

I made mention already of the government's NDP, a plan which will see a much-needed ramping up of investment in critical infrastructure. If this country is to consolidate and sustain its economic progress, we need to close existing gaps in housing, water, energy, and transport infrastructure, and we need to do it at pace.

We look forward to continued progress on the delivery of new housing, with 2025 seeing over 36,000 new homes being completed. That was the best output performance since the GFC, but it's still well adrift of the level of housing completions needed to satisfy demand.

We expect to see housing output continuing to grow year in, year out, with the level of completions forecast at 45,000 in 2028, representing an increase of some 25% on the 2025 performance. Given the scale of unsatisfied demand that's out there, housing supply is going to have to reach levels well ahead of in-year structural demand if the market is to return to equilibrium.

Challenges remain, but we are seeing good progress, and we are optimistic about the supply outlook and the opportunities that creates for our lending businesses, both in mortgages and development finance. Now looking back to the lending performance last year, new lending was 2% higher than in 2024.

We saw a 4% decline in new mortgage lending in a growing market, with our mortgage market share falling to 30%. Now I've remarked on many occasions that we do not target mortgage market share per se.

Instead, we are focused on writing the right business at the right price. That said, it is important to note that not all mortgage market shares are the same, and we've a strong preference for having direct relationships with our customers as they embark on the biggest financial decisions of their lives.

In the direct-to-consumer market, we remain by some distance the leading player, with a market share of 46%, and the pipeline for the early months of 2026 looks very good. Personal lending was 4% ahead, and now 88% of personal loans are applied for digitally across the group.

Total property lending saw an increase of 25% off the subdued base of recent years. Corporate lending had a good performance with new lending up 8%, but this was offset by a quieter year for climate and infrastructure capital in a noisy external environment.

A number of deals which we expected to close in December tipped into January, and that business is off to a very good start this year. Given the macro backdrop and the strong and visible pipeline ahead for the operating divisions, we are confident in our ability to deliver a medium-term lending growth CAGR of 5% out to the end of 2027.

Our franchise remains exceptionally strong, and we are very pleased to be now serving more than 3.4 million customers, with more new customers choosing AIB than any other financial institution in Ireland. The trust that our customers, both long-standing and new, place in us is underpinned by the resilience of our digital offering, with level 1 service availability running at 99.99% in 2025, and by the strength of our physical presence, with AIB having the largest branch network in Ireland.

That community engagement is key to our relationship with our customers, particularly for the very biggest moments in their financial lives, who know that we are digitally trustworthy and we are there in person when it really matters. I'm pleased with the response of our customers to our enhanced savings and investment offering through AIB life and Goodbody, with total AUM now comfortably exceeding €18 billion, with plenty of growth in the pipeline.

On a standalone basis, AIB life is now showing real traction, with AUM reaching €3 billion, which was a 20% increase in 2025. Now as Ireland ages and government policy evolves, we believe there is potential for significant additional growth in savings and investments in '26 and beyond.

We remain the bank of choice for new account openings, with the group enjoying a market share of 49% of the flow and 40% of the stock of current accounts in 2025. Our corporate and business banking franchise remains exceptionally strong, and we're going to continue to invest in secure and speedy digital enablement over the years ahead as we meet the evolving needs of these critical parts of Ireland's economic success.

Of course, we remain the country's leading green bank, a standing we will maintain as we grow the share of green lending and broaden and enhance the range of green products and services across the group. Looking now at the first of our strategic priorities, the focus on customers, their expectations, and their needs is key to the long-term success of AIB.

Through a data-driven approach to customer segmentation, we understand those expectations and needs like never before. That unrelenting focus on our customers is paying dividends in the form of Net Promoter Scores, with all-time highs in five of the six key customer journeys being recorded in 2025.

Meanwhile, service levels in our customer engagement centers remain very strong, and we continue to invest in delivering an easier, more engaging, and protective relationship with our customers. We will use AI extensively to help us deliver that high-quality relationship of real trust.

Abby, our AI digital assistant, whom we launched in December of 2024, is engaging now with an ever-greater number of customers. Covering 66 customer journeys, Abby has assisted over 1.3 million customers since her rollout.

The feedback has been very positive, with particular reference being made to the speed and the ease of dealing with our digital assistant. 80% of our customers who call our engagement centers choose to continue dealing with Abby.

We continue to make steady progress on our second strategic priority, greening our business. We're playing an active role in financing the transition to a more sustainable future.

We've now deployed almost €23 billion of the €30 billion climate action fund, and we lent an additional €6.3 billion in new green and transition lending in '25, with the greatest contribution coming from retail banking, predominantly in the form of green mortgages, which now account for 62% of all new Republic of Ireland mortgage lending. Across corporate and business banking, we are the leading player in financing sustainable lending to the engines of economic development, while climate and infrastructure capital has continued to play an important role in funding solar, wind, bioenergy, waste-to-energy assets in Ireland, Britain, the European Union, and in North America.

The loan book in this division has now expanded to more than €6 billion, and we expect to see further significant growth in '26 and beyond. Notwithstanding our ambition to be a champion of the transition to a greener future, the scale of the opportunity is simply enormous and continues to grow, allowing us to be highly selective in choosing the technologies and the geographies where we are willing to put the group's capital to work.

Our third strategic priority speaks to ever-greater operational efficiency and resilience, and I am very pleased to report accelerating progress right the way across the organization. We've invested significantly in resilience because it is fundamental to customer trust, and trust is the prerequisite for any credible digital ambition.

We continue to strengthen, simplify, and streamline AIB, with a 40% decline in the number of legal entities within the group, an ongoing decommissioning of legacy applications, and increased digital automation of customer contact. We've invested wisely in AI, with Copilot now deployed across the organization, and the first wave of internal agentic assistants is now being deployed.

We're making great progress in enhancing credit decisioning through nCino, which now handles two thirds of all new SME lending. Our platforms remain resilient, with world-class level 1 service availability and zero critical cyber incidents in 2025.

The rollout of push notifications on our app is making a material difference to the quality of our everyday customer engagement. There's so much more to come, with our next-generation app set to launch in the summer.

By design, it will be more agile and flexible than any other app previously deployed by us, and it will be capable of rapid and high-frequency enhancements. Allied with the imminent launch of Yippay across the Irish retail banks, our customers are going to enjoy a significant improvement in the quality of their digital interaction with us over the coming months.

Now this foundation gives us the right to accelerate. Our new digital platforms can scale confidently because the underlying estate is stable, secure, and well-governed.

The pace of technological change that we're seeing is unprecedented in the history of banking. Now our team has demonstrated clearly and consistently the efficiency, security, resilience, and customer experience gains that they are capable of delivering.

Given that track record of achievement and the speed of change that is now readily apparent, we believe that we can credibly build the future faster at AIB. Our annual investment in the business has increased from an average of €300 million in recent years to €350 million last year, and will rise to €400 million this year and beyond.

The bulk of that increase is devoted to strategic projects, which will allow us to continue enhancing our customer experience, our digital agility, and the resilience and the durability of our systems. We will build the future faster here, and in so doing, continue to earn the trust of our 3.4 million and growing customer base.

We are now well embarked on the final year of this strategic cycle. While we're very focused on delivering on our targets for 2026 and continuing to generate attractive shareholder returns, our minds are inevitably turning to the next strategic cycle, which will bring us to 2030.

As we move through the months ahead, our plans and our targets will take more concrete form, and we'll seek board approval for what comes next in December, before we share the full details with our investors and the analyst community. Now it would be premature of me at this stage to outline the set of performance indicators and parameters which will guide the next phase of AIB's development.

However, they will, I believe, be fully reflective of my own 2030 ambitions for this organization. I want AIB to be the best bank in Europe and the most trusted brand in Ireland.

Now these may be audacious aspirations, but they're grounded in what we have already achieved together. We've made huge progress in recent years in reshaping and transforming the group in the interests of all our stakeholders.

We have the leading customer franchise. We're generating shareholder value, including a RoTE of 25% and return on assets of 1.4%.

Our organization is in great shape, with 370 basis points of organic capital generation and €2.25 billion returned to our shareholders. I'm very excited about what I know it can and will deliver over the months and years ahead.

Now 2025 was a landmark year. We delivered against the commitments we set for ourselves, we performed ahead of expectations, and we did so with positive momentum across the business.

However, 2025 was a milestone. It wasn't a destination.

We've come a huge way in recent years, with a strong capital base, a very clear strategic ambition, and a market-leading position. AIB is well positioned for the future, and I remain convinced that our best days still lie ahead as we work relentlessly to build a better, stronger, more resilient AIB in the interests of all those who put their trust in us.

Donal.

Thank you very much, Colin, and good morning, everyone. I'm very happy and pleased to be able to deliver the financial highlights for AIB for 2025.

We've delivered a profit after tax of €2.1 billion, with a return on tangible equity of 25%, and earnings per share of 93.3 cents. Our total income was €4.5 billion, which was down 8% on the year.

That's broken down between a net interest income reduction of 9% and net fee and commission income increase of 4%. Our costs were slightly lower than expected at €1.99 billion, which is up 1% on the year, and that gave us a cost-income ratio of 44%, and our FTEs were 3% lower year-to-year.

Our gross loans increased 2% or 3% on an underlying basis to €72.3 billion, and that included €14.7 billion of new lending, which was up 2% year-on-year. Our asset quality remains resilient, and our ECL coverage remains at 1.6%.

We had an ECL charge of €172 million, which represents a 24 basis points cost of risk, and our NPEs finished the year at 2.2% of gross loans, which is the lowest for a number of years in AIB. Our funding position remains exceptionally strong.

We've customer deposits of €117.2 billion, and that represents a 7% increase on the year, which was well ahead of our own expectations. Within wholesale markets, we issued AT1, Tier 2, euro senior, and dollar senior, leaving us with a very strong funding position.

Our capital at the end of the year, our CET1 was 16.2%, well ahead of regulatory requirements, but that incorporates very strong organic capital generation of 370 basis points and very strong performance on RWA optimization initiatives. Our total distributions for the year are €2.25 billion, representing a 105% ratio.

€263 million was already paid in November as an interim. We have a €988 million proposed final ordinary cash dividend, and we've announced and already begun to execute a €1 billion on-market buyback.

I'd say on the income statement, I don't want to really repeat myself too much. Obviously, income was down 8% as I previously mentioned, but notwithstanding that fact, we can see earnings per share flat year-on-year.

Total cash dividend per share 58.58 cents is up 58%, really strong performance there, we feel, on the returns. Our bank levies and regulatory fees were €114 million in the year, and that includes €94 million for the Irish banking levy.

As we look into 2026, we don't expect any material exceptional items, and our bank levies and regulatory fees we currently estimate will be around €140 million. Net interest income of €3,748 million, down 9%.

I'll just try to walk through the moving parts here. There's a 42 basis points benefit from our structural hedge program.

Obviously related to this, a 45 basis points reduction in net interest margin from cash held with central banks. Customer loans and investment securities are down 22 and 19 basis points, again, just reflecting those lower interest rates.

On the liability side, we had a strong benefit from wholesale funding costs of €119 million, and we had an associated cost of €88 million as customers termed out some of their deposits. Our Q4 exit NIM was 2.69%, and it ends the year overall at 2.73%.

This is an important slide, I think, for us to show how we have managed our interest rate exposure through the last number of years. Obviously, interest rates going from -50 up to 4% and landing down at 2% has meant that we've had to proactively manage our balance sheet.

As we give our guidance for 2026, the assumptions that we make is that we'll have an ECB deposit rate of 2%, and that deposit beta will remain at 20% as it was throughout 2025. We're very comfortable with our NII resilience, which we believe we have shown over the last number of years.

What gives me the great confidence going into '26 and beyond is that we have a growing and granular deposit base, which we have seen grow significantly over the last number of years. We see growth in all of our core markets of around 5% per annum, and we very proactively manage our balance sheet.

We do this through our structural hedge program. I think last year in the midyear, I would have referenced a €15 billion increase in our structural hedge in 2025.

Already this year in the last number of days, we have executed an additional €10 billion of structural hedge. The average yield on that was 2.3% and the average life was 5 years.

The impact that has is reducing our NII sensitivity to 100 basis point move or shock from €378 million down to €286 million. Some of the other moving parts with the structural hedge are that we expect to have €6 billion of swaps maturing in '26, €6 billion of swaps maturing in '27.

Throughout '24, '25, and even earlier this year, I have talked about wanting to extend the duration, which is now expected to be 5% by the end 5 years by the end of 2026. We expect at the end of '26 to have a receive-fixed yield of 2.3% on euros and 2.7% on sterling.

In addition, as we've talked about before, we have a large quantum of fixed-rate mortgages of around €21 billion. They have a yield of 3.1% and a weighted average life of 1.9 years, and that's relevant because we leave them unhedged really to add a little bit of natural duration to our balance sheet.

I've really tried to summarize the position for year-end. We'll have an average life of 5.1 years on our euro hedge, and that will remain in place over the next number of years, and our receive-fixed yield is around 2.3%, at stroke in the money.

Looking through that and looking at that, that's what really underpins and gives us the confidence for our NII guidance to be circa €3.8 billion in 2 2026. Other income was €756 million, and our net fees and commissions were up 4% in the year.

The main standouts really was in our cards business, which was up 11%, our wealth and insurance business, which was up 7%. As we've talked about previously, this is a huge area of focus for the organization going forward.

We have €18.3 billion of AUM, as Colin would have mentioned, a number of years ago. Obviously, that would have been a much lower number or approximately zero, but obviously post the acquisition of Goodbody, post the start-up of our joint venture with AIB life, we feel we have a very strong foundation.

The Goodbody AUM is €15.3 billion, which grew by 7% in the year. The AIB life AUM is €3 billion, which grew 20% in the year.

I think in the coming years, what you should expect to see in this area is AUM growth of 10% per annum and revenue growth of 15% per annum, but that is going to be a massive area of focus for the organization linked to the huge customer numbers that we have, obviously linked to a lot of the activity we are embarking on with respect to digitalization and personalization. Some of the other line items can always be a little bit more volatile.

I try to just update and guide as the year progresses, but overall for 2026, other income greater than €750 million. Our cost performance was strong in 2025, outturn of €1.99 billion, which is up 1%.

Few different moving parts here: staff costs were down 1%, mainly due to reduction in headcount; G&A expenses up 6%, we've seen some inflationary impacts there, higher business volume impacts there, and also higher opex-related investment spend, not all of our technology spends get capitalized, some also goes through our opex, and you will see it here; and our depreciation number is down 3% on the year as we really tightly managed the execution of our big programs. Overall, that gives us a cost-income ratio of 44%.

Like I said, our FTE reduction was down 3%, ending the year with 10,207 employees, and this is a trajectory we expect to maintain in the coming years. We believe that we'll be able to do it on an organic basis obviously as we go through the next number of years.

Colin mentioned that we were going to increase our investment spend from 300 to 350 up to €400 million now in 2026, and we're going to really look to accelerate our digitization, which will enable faster innovation, scalability, enhanced security, and obviously operational efficiency. As a result of this, you can expect to see our depreciation grow by 3% or 4% per annum, but that is obviously going to be partially offset by ongoing cost-saving initiatives and efficiencies that come from the rollout of these large programs.

For 2026, we expect our costs to increase by 2%. With respect to asset quality, we had an ECL charge of €172 million for the year, which represents a 24 basis points cost of risk.

I'll just really simply break it down into three different areas: we had a writeback of €52 million from macros, and that's really reflecting the fact that the way we saw the different range of outcomes post-Liberation Day, the outturn, particularly in Ireland, ended up being significantly better; we had a €210 million net charge relating to underlying credit performances, which is really just the normal movement of credit between stages; and lastly, with our PMA, we had a small charge of €14 million in the year, leading us overall to that charge of €172 million. We've an ECL stock of €1.1 billion and an ECL cover rate of 1.6%.

We've a PMA of €254 million, represents around 26% of our ECL stock. Notwithstanding all of the volatility that remains in the world at the moment, we feel we are very, very conservatively provided.

For 2026, we expect a cost of risk within the range of 20 to 30 basis points, and I'll look to narrow that as the year progresses. Main movements on the balance sheet side: obviously, loans increased 2%, liabilities increased 7%, that obviously gives us an excess liquidity position.

What you're seeing here is an increase in the amount of investments we make in the treasury world. We bought an additional €2.4 billion worth of bonds in the sovereign and supranational space in the eurozone, and for 2026, I think you can expect to see that grow by another 4 to 5 billion euros.

Loans to banks was €48 billion, which included €36 billion at the CBI and £3.8 billion with the Bank of England. Overall, our loans increased by 3% on an underlying basis or 2% on a reported basis.

Big FX impacts in the year, slight impact from some disposals in the year, but overall, I think we are more confident now than ever that we'll be able to reach and achieve our 5% asset growth targets for '26 and '27. What we saw in 2025, I would say, was our wholesale businesses performed very strongly, property market still a little bit muted, recovering from the interest rate changes and valuation shock, our personal consumer business performed very, very strong, and on our mortgage business, we saw growth overall on the year.

As I look to 2026, I think what you can expect to see is growth in all of these areas, just slightly more. Our funding and capital position remains very strong: LDR of 61%, LCR of 204%, and a net stable funding ratio of 163%.

Our MREL ratio is 35.2% in excess of our requirements, really very strong foundation there. I think the big story on the liability side of the balance sheet side for 2025 was really deposits and the deposit growth.

Notwithstanding the fact that we had a movement of around €2.4 billion of our customers moving to term, we actually had an increase overall in our current accounts and demand deposits. So 7% growth is an exceptionally strong outturn, though we do expect that to temper somewhat in 2026, more in line with modified domestic demand.

There's no other reasons there, no competitive environments that we're necessarily concerned about. It's just we feel that 2025 was maybe an unusually large growth area, but that remains to be seen, and we will obviously be able to watch that quarter by quarter.

Capital generation for 2025 in AIB was exceptionally strong. We started the year at 15.1%, and then early in Q1, we had a Basel IV impact of 120 basis points.

We had organic capital generation of 370 basis points from our business activity. We have a reduction of 390 basis points for distributions, as we've talked about.

We engaged with the government and we canceled the warrants that they were granted in 2017 around the time of the IPO, and that had a cost of 70 basis points. Given our strong business performance, we had really strong DTA utilization benefit of 40 basis points.

We had some other equity movements of 20 basis points cost, which is really just AT1 coupons. Then in other RWA movements, we have a number of RWA optimization items where we had a strong outperformance.

That includes execution of a mortgage SRT in quarter four, the sale of our 49% shareholding in AIB Merchant Services, and also the implementation of a new IRB model for our climate and infrastructure capital business, which also had a positive benefit. That doesn't even incorporate the €1.2 billion directed buyback that we did with the government in the first half of the year, where we bought back €1.2 billion of stock at a price of €6.25, because that was obviously deducted from the prior year's returns.

The outturn of 16.2% is very strong, over 6% of capital generated in the year, which is really, really strong, and we're very happy with that, obviously comfortably above all of our buffers. With respect to how we think about capital, same as prior years: come in on the 1st of January and drive as strong a business performance as is possible.

Obviously, 370 basis points was the outturn for 2025, but I think you should be thinking even for the medium term greater than 320 basis points on a sustainable basis, and our deferred DTA benefit of circa 35 basis points steady state going forward. We're going to invest in our business in two ways: number one, increase our investment spend and change in technology up to €400 million, and we're obviously going to utilize more of our capital as we grow our balance sheet on a 5% annualized basis.

We will continue to optimize our balance sheet wherever we can, in whichever format we can. We will do this through SRTs, where we've already issued two transactions, two different asset types.

Obviously, the corporate transaction was done in '24, the AIB mortgage transaction was done in '25, and now in 2026, we will look to execute an SRT transaction within our project finance or climate and infrastructure capital portfolio. IRB model adoption and development is an ongoing theme.

We do expect to have 80% of our balance sheet on IRB models by 2028. I mentioned the benefit from the project finance model.

2026, we have two different portfolios which we're hoping to review and conclude, that being EBS mortgages and commercial real estate, but it's a little bit too early to know what the outturns there are going to be. Lastly, we look to deliver market-leading distributions.

We've paid out over 100% in 2024 and 2025. We've paid out €6.5 billion in distributions since 2023.

For our ordinary dividend policy, we look to pay a sustainable dividend within a 40% to 60% payout range. Our ordinary dividend will be paid in cash.

Our interim dividend will be paid at one third of the prior year's ordinary dividend per share. With respect to additional distributions, we have capacity for above-policy payouts, subject to annual review and necessary approvals.

We have optionality to utilize share buybacks, special dividends, or a combination of both as we look to move towards our medium-term target of greater than 14%. Wrapping it all up, our 2025 performance, we feel, was strong, already achieved or outperformed our 2026 targets.

2026 guidance will be interest income circa €3.8 billion, other income greater than €750 million, costs are expected to grow by 2%, we expect a cost of risk between 20 and 30 basis points, loans will grow by 5%, and we expect deposits to grow by 2% or 3%, and we'll deliver a return on tangible equity greater than 20%. For 2026 and beyond, we expect to deliver a strong performance in the final year of our strategy.

Moving into the next strategic cycle, we have a lot of positive momentum in our business: sustainable business growth and returns, strong organic capital generation, increased investment in our business, and market-leading shareholder distributions. Our medium-term targets continue to guide the business and will be refreshed for our next strategic cycle this time next year.

Thank you all very much.

Thank you very much indeed, Donal. Now we're going to take some time for questions, and we're going to the phone lines.

The first question comes from Denis McGoldrick in Goodbody. Good morning, Denis.

Good morning, Colin and Donal, and thank you for taking my questions. Just two please, if I may.

Firstly, you're guiding to circa €3.8 billion NII for 2026. Can you talk us through the moving parts within that year-on-year, along with any color you could give on NII beyond this year, please?

Then secondly, you delivered 7% deposit growth in 2025, but could you talk us through the mix within that between interest and non-interest bearing, and how you see that evolving this year? Thank you.

Thanks, Denis. I'll take that one.

Look, on the liability side, I think it's fair to say that the savings ratio in Ireland is a little bit higher than what people would have imagined, and I think the impact on the Irish banking system was pretty consistent. Notwithstanding that fact, we do think that the deposit market will normalize in 2026, which is why we think that the increase will be 2% to 3%.

It seems like a big drop, but I would argue that that's more due to 2025 outperformance, but we will be able to keep an eye on this on a quarterly basis. I think we don't expect any particular change in mix.

Our deposit beta in 2025 is around 20%, 2026 we expect to see something similar, I would just use the same mix as you go forward. Overall with NII, really nothing new here.

I think taking the year-end position of 2025, believing and putting that 5% growth over the coming years, I think, is how you will be able to get closer to the numbers I have. Indeed, if I look at consensus for 2026, '27, '28, obviously given your '26 numbers, which were slightly better than consensus, '27 is in or around where we see things.

I think 2028 consensus seems a little bit light on loans and obviously on associated interest income, but for all of those years, '27, '28, will be greater than 20% return on tangible equity as well. I can certainly commit to that.

Thank you very much indeed, Donal. We're now going to Diarmaid Sheridan in Davy.

Morning, Diarmaid.

Donal, thank you for taking my questions. Two as well, if I may, please.

Just firstly on the capital and distributions. Could I just invite you to maybe talk to us about when you'd expect to get to your greater than 14% target, please?

I guess, Donal, you've provided some of the outlining measures, but just given how strong capital generation is, unless you're significantly exceeding your distributions that you've delivered in the last couple of years, it's kind of hard to see how it gets to that level without something maybe from an inorganic or maybe if there's something we're missing. A second question just on new lending, just in terms of what the key drivers to bridge from that kind of 2% to 5% growth.

Appreciate five it's underlying 3% in '25. Specifically just on the mortgage market, I get the point you make around the direct channels.

Clearly, the broker channel has become a much more significant part. I'd just challenge you as to whether it's sensible to remain out of that channel, or is that an area that you're comfortable not to play a significant role in?

Thank you.

We don't remain out of the intermediary channel. We have a presence there through Haven.

We've had a big prioritization of green mortgages in the past number of years, and in the final quarter of last year, we made some adjustments to our non-green mortgage rates. We haven't really seen a huge increase in the size of the intermediary channel in the past number of years, but we do prioritize our direct relationship with our customers.

That's what we want to maintain that direct relationship with our customers. Certainly on foot of the quality of our digital engagement, quality of our in-branch advisory service the length and breadth of the country, and given those price adjustments we made for non-green rates in the closing quarter of last year, what we're seeing coming through now in terms of pipeline is very, very encouraging about the volume of mortgage growth to be reporting in 2026.

Hi, Diarmaid. I think with respect to the capital question, moving towards our medium-term target of 14% being ambition for quite a period of time.

That obviously as a baseline represents the amount of capital the organization thinks that it needs to run the business successfully, which is why we are focused on trying to get to that as soon as we possibly can. I would say 2025 was more around a significant outperformance on the capital front than any reluctance to return capital.

I'd say the big initiatives that we worked on, we came out on the right side of that, which isn't always the case. Generating 6% of CET1 in any particular year is a particularly large amount.

Look, and that's what we worked hard to do, and on any opportunity where we get to look at our balance sheet or any of our activities and make things more efficient, we are going to do that. Even if it drags me or pulls me further higher away from 14%, we will do that.

We executed a mortgage SRT in quarter four. Cost me money, generated 25 basis points of CET1, but it was an applied cost of equity of 3% or 4%.

We will continue look to do the right things to optimize our capital. On an annual basis, that's what puts us in as strong a position as possible to move towards that 14%, give our stakeholders, the regulator, the board, the comfort and confidence for us to maintain payouts similar to the last number of years.

Thanks, Diarmaid. Now we're going to Sheel Shah, J.P.

Morgan. Good morning.

Great. Thanks.

Two questions from my side, please. Firstly, on the distributions.

The dividend payout ratio looks to be at the top end of your target range. Can I ask how you're thinking about the split of distributions going forward into 2026 and beyond?

Would you expect DPS to, for example, grow, considering that we're already at the top of the payout ratio range and attributable profits maybe taking a bit of a step down next year? Then secondly, can I ask about the investment spend and maybe sort of leaning towards the mobile app and your data insights?

Could I ask how much sense do you have of the number of AIB customers that can be potential wealth customers, and how much leakage do you have in terms of AIB customers that maybe go to other providers for services? I'm wondering how much of this you can capture within the group going forward.

Thank you.

I'll take the second question, and then Donal can do the distributions. Do you want to go first, Donal?

Look, with respect to the distributions, from the half year, obviously, we knew the position that we were going to be in, by and large, financially speaking. The way we try to look at our distributions, we'll talk to investors, we'll engage with the regulator, and then we'll have our own particular thoughts on what the right mix is.

This is the first year for us, obviously, been out of state ownership. We announced a new dividend policy, obviously, last year as well, and we were very focused on ensuring that we delivered cleanly, clearly, and consistently against that.

Then the make-up with respect to the buyback and the cash dividend, it was a number of factors we had to take into account, one of them being market liquidity as well. If we do a buyback that was particularly larger, it might even be difficult to execute within a particular year as well.

That's something that goes into our thoughts. We came out for the first time last year and we've said we'll pay a cash dividend within the range of 40% to 60%, and we've decided to pay at the top end of that range for 2025.

Obviously, that's a strong indication of our desire to deliver strong returns to our shareholders. Look, on a go-forward basis, the most important thing, having a conversation around distributions, it goes back to how we think about capital and how we manage ourselves.

When we come in on the 1st of January, work hard, deliver on the plans, then you'll generate strong returns. Without doing that, you're not even having a conversation.

That really is our focus, and then we look and analyze the best make-up of returns in the last quarter of the year.

Thanks very much indeed. In relation to the app, we've 3.4 million customers, 85% of our customers are digitally active.

The app is in the final stages of development. In fact, we've a pilot out there which is getting very, very positive reaction at the moment, and we look forward to launching it in the summer months.

It's going to be a significant change to what we currently offer. It's going to be far, far more intuitive, far, far easier to navigate, far, far better functionality, and it will encompass all aspects of your relationship with AIB Group.

The simple truth is that we really didn't have savings and investment products in the wealth space until we acquired Goodbody and until we established AIB life. We've seen our AUM now grow to the point of €18.3 billion.

There's significant further gains to be made there, I've absolutely no doubt about it, over the next number of years, and the app is going to make a difference in that regard as well. That isn't the sole reason that we're increasing our investment spend.

What we're looking at is a progressive transformation of our architecture. We've built a data warehouse in the cloud, world-class.

We are investing in a new credit lifecycle management system. We are building a unified mortgage platform, all of which will allow us to respond to our customers' needs in a far, far more agile, rapid, and secure way because, ultimately, this is about trust.

We're going to turn now to Aman at Barclays. Good morning.

Thank you very much for taking the questions. I wanted to just come back on capital, please.

It's quite a few moving parts in terms of capital generation going forward, in particular, the SRTs and potential headwinds. I think previously you've kind of called out CRE, the kind of giveback of the CRE component within Basel, as a potential headwind.

I don't know if you could kind of give us a kind of updated take on whether you still think that is the case and if you could in any way quantify that, that would be really, really helpful. I just wanted to just ask a bit more about SRTs and around the quantum, is there a limit on the amount of SRTs, aggregate or cumulative SRTs that you'd be looking to have out at any one point in time?

I just want to get a sense

of

the kind of ongoing run rate of SRTs beyond the kind of existing stock when we're thinking about building out capital for that. Thank you so much.

Look, with respect to commercial real estate, huge beneficiary from Basel IV, effectively rough numbers, the risk ratings went from around 100% down to 80%. I don't think that I'm going to have line of sight on that outturn until probably the end of 2026, and I don't actually expect an inspection until 2027.

I've naturally just gone to assume that we will be giving up some of that, but I can't quantify that at the moment. With respect to SRTs, the way we think about those and the way I've talked about this from the start, I want to have a program set up on multiple asset classes executed over multiple years.

The reason I want to do this, it's not necessarily for capital generation, okay? We have plenty of capital, and obviously with every SRT, I'm moving away from 14%, but it's really for me an RWA optimization tool and a risk management tool.

It helps us at entity level or at business level manage returns. Corporate transaction done successfully in '24, AIB mortgages in '25, similar sizes, we look to target 20, 25 basis points of CET1 per transaction.

We don't look to be very aggressive and do massive jumbo deals, okay, because that is not the exercise that we are trying to execute. 2026, we look at our climate and infrastructure business.

It has a newly approved project finance model, a slotting approach. I'm going to imagine there will be less inefficiencies, the SRT may be less effective than others that we've done.

It's just I want to have that asset class in an SRT program, which will help us risk manage it going forward. Beyond that, I will look at commercial real estate.

I need to understand all of the data that we're getting from our IRB analysis, and then that will help me figure out how we want to target that market. That's more than likely going to be 2027.

Then EBS mortgages as well is another area and another portfolio that I want to look at. I need to wait for the EBS to complete and conclude its own IRB on-site inspection again so we can see what the underlying data is telling us.

I think they're the main asset classes that I want to get up and running. Once I have them up and running, they will endure, they will remain in perpetuity certainly as long as they're allowed.

I think the question sometimes comes up if different firms maybe max out, let's say, quantums, etc., then there's kind of questions from the regulator around associated counterparty risk, but we kind of want to do regular, smaller transactions, very diverse investor base over the coming years. Each transaction look to save 20 to 25 basis points of CET1.

Each transaction probably going to cost €10, €15 million. Cost of equity to date has been very, very attractive for us, but they're the kind of metrics you should be thinking about.

Thanks very much indeed. Now we're turning to Guy Stebbings at BNP.

Good morning, Guy.

Hi, morning there. Thanks for taking the questions.

Most of my questions be covered, but just one bigger picture question for Colin. You talked about wanting to be the best bank in Europe in sort of longer term.

It could be seen as a sort of quite an ambitious statement. I guess best bank means different things to different people, just interested in terms of what sort of metrics you would be thinking about when benchmarking yourself as such.

Thank you.

That's an interesting question and one that was predicted to be landed on top of me today. Ultimately, we won't decide if we're the best bank in Europe.

It'll be our stakeholders that do. How do our customers regard us?

How do our shareholders regard us? How do our employees regard us?

Of course, very importantly, how do our regulators look at us? It'll be a compendium of their views that will determine if we will be judged to be the best bank in Europe.

I know what the team here are capable of. I know the scale of the ambition that we have, and I am very confident that we are going to do our utmost to be ranked amongst all those stakeholder groups as the best bank in Europe.

We'll obviously be updating you in 12 months' time when we have the actual parameters and metrics around how we are going to evaluate that, but it will be in the eyes of the various important stakeholder groups that we deal with every single day. Now turning to Robert Noble, Deutsche Bank.

Morning. Can you hear me?

Yes, we can. Yep.

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions.

Two for me, please. The climate capital segment, it's the one that's growing fastest and presumably will grow fastest going forward as well.

There's quite a pick-up in stage 3 loans, and the cost of risk has stepped up. What's going on in this division, and what sort of returns do you see that part of the business generating compared to the group as it scales up?

Then just a follow-up on all the capital questions. At the bottom line, what sort of RWA growth are you expecting in 2026 pre the unknown IRB changes?

Then do those IRB changes affect your Pillar 2 requirement at all, and could that potentially lead you to lower the 14% CET1 target? Thank you.

Hi, Rob. Thanks for the questions.

I'll I'll take that. With respect to, Pillar Pillar 2, let's let's let's wait and see.

Overall, we, have very detailed programs in place, working with the regulator where we're trying to close out various items on that on the to-do list. We've been very, very, I would say, efficient in closing those down, and over the last number of years, have seen a slow, steady steady improvement in our in our add-ons, but we are very ambitious in this area, as obviously our add-ons are one of the key ingredients to our medium-term targets.

With respect to climate capital, a few different things there. I mentioned that we have a new slotting model, which is approved, which is really you what what is used for the for the bulk of the activities in that area.

We've begun to roll that out in quarter quarter three and quarter four, but looking through it all, if it had a if that business had a risk weighting density of around 90 90% pre that model, post the model, it's around 75%, okay? That's one of the key inputs that you need for your your returns analysis.

The margins on the business, I'd say, are are are pretty consistent in different jurisdictions, and I would I would probably think about that being like a 2.2% margin business, or certainly that's what we model for when we're looking at the business and its growth and its trajectory. Costs are very low, obviously, given that it's a very small professional wholesale team, and then it comes down to the cost of risk.

For 2025, that division standalone had a very high cost of risk of around 110 basis points. Within that, there was around half a billion euros, €500 million worth of fiber fiber-type transactions, all originated around 2019, 2020, and that's to do with the rollout of fiber throughout Europe, okay, Ireland, UK, France, Germany, Italy, etc.

All of those deals are now, or a lot of them, some are performing exceptionally well, such as in Ireland, UK not so much, delays from COVID, etc., etc., they're coming through now. We took a few PMAs, quite an amount of PMAs, really just to ensure that in all eventualities, we were really well provided for.

You are seeing refis and equity recaps happening in that business at the moment, but if you took out that fiber portfolio, the cost of risk for that book was was probably 5 or 6 basis points. Certainly for our planning assumptions, we we we use a cost of risk less than 20 basis points.

If you put all that together, you can see the growth trajectory, and you can see that this is an accretive business for AIB and very heavily supported and strategically important for us.

Okay. Thank you.

We're now going to RBC. Good morning, Pablo.

Question.

I wanted to ask on being on first. You're guiding to AUM CAGR of 10% for 2028 with related revenue growth above that at 15% per year.

Could you just please provide a bit more detail on what would drive that revenue growth going forward, besides the demographic trends that you have already mentioned, and perhaps also what the required additional investments are in that part of the business going forward? My second question was more on your deposit growth.

I know that you've mentioned you expect that deceleration from the 7% that you saw in 2025 to be more in line with the evolution of MDD. I believe you also mentioned that you didn't necessarily expect a material headwind from changes in the competitive environment in Ireland.

I just wanted to check what you have been seeing in the last months in this year as well, and if you expect any material disruption given potential new entrants into the market, the ongoing transaction in Ireland, etc. Thank you.

Look, on the wealth, the way we're set up, and I'll just try to explain the guidance I gave you a little bit there. We imagined 10% AUM growth.

I'd like to imagine that that is on the conservative side. We've two businesses: high net worth within Goodbody, and then more mass market through AIB life.

Goodbody is obviously if we're able to acquire any smaller roll-up businesses in that space, we're really aggressively looking to pursue that avenue. That would be, I would say, in Ireland, we would say million euros up of net worth.

The AIB life business is performed really, really well. It only started up a number of years ago.

That is now fully functioning within the AIB construct, it's a joint venture with Great-West Lifeco, but there's 140 advisers operating throughout the country and working through AIB branches with AIB colleagues. I think the statistics were maybe 40,000 face-to-face meetings or 35,000 face-to-face meetings last year with our customers, and we do expect this to just grow as we continue to roll out new products, and obviously as the population matures and also educates a bit more on wealth products.

That's what gives us the confidence in this area. Massive area of focus for us, not just with respect to customer acquisition, but also connectivity with our mobile presence, our mobile banking apps as well, making that as easy as we possibly can for customers.

On deposits, look, it's where I'm trying to be as open and clear about this as possible. I will admit, over the last number of years, I have underestimated liability growth for the organization.

We're certainly very comfortable with our position in the market, okay, 49%, 50% of all new accounts being opened, and that's a huge area of focus for us, 40% of the stock. We've no concerns necessarily over competitive threats in this area.

It's just we felt that at some stage, a normal savings ratio deposit impact is going to come to pass. I was expecting a slightly different outturn in 2025.

Obviously, I was wrong and there was an outperformance. Let's see how it turns out in 2026.

Is it conservative? Who knows?

Certainly that's what our econometric models would show us, and indeed, if it's wrong, I'm sure we'll know at the next quarterly Central Bank of Ireland report in any case.

Very good. Now we're past the top of the hour, and we're going to draw matters to a close there.

Thank you so much indeed for your attendance and for your questions this morning. If you've any other questions or any points of clarification, please do reach out to Niamh, to Siobhan, to John, and Bernie on the IR team, and we look forward to engaging with you and indeed our investors face to face as the roadshow commences later on today.

Thank you so much indeed.