Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Lundin Mining Second Quarter 26 Financial Results Call.
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session.
And to ask a question during the session, you would need to press *11 on your telephone. You would then hear an automated advising your hand is raised.
And to withdraw your question, please press *11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack O. A.
Lundin, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.
Jack O. A. Lundin
Good morning, and welcome to Lundin Mining's Second Quarter 26 Conference Call. Thank you for joining us today.
A press release and presentation summarizing the quarter's results are available on our website where a replay of this call will also be made available. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that today's presentation and certain comments during the call, including our Q&A, will include forward looking information that is subject to risks and uncertainties.
I draw your attention to the cautionary statements on slide 2 and encourage you to review our MDNA and related filings available on SEDAR for a full description of the relevant risk factors. As a reminder, all amounts discussed on today's call are in US dollars unless otherwise noted.
Joining me on the call today is Juan Andres Morel, our chief operating officer, and Teitur Poulsen, our chief financial officer. Turning to slide 4.
The second quarter was another productive period for the company. Operationally, financially, and strategically.
In line with our corporate vision, we completed the acquisition of an additional 5% interest in Casaronis from our partner, JX Advanced Metals. Bringing our total ownership to 75%.
We also acquired a 31% interest in the Los Helados project, for a total consideration of 215 million. Los Helados is a large copper gold deposit located approximately 17 km south of Casa Ronis.
This transaction strengthens our mineral resource base while providing compelling long term growth optionality in a district we know well. On June 17th, we hosted our second annual Capital Markets Day, where we built on our strategic vision from last year and updated our financial outlook for the next 5 and 10 years.
We highlighted multiple low capital intensive brownfield expansion opportunities at our 3 existing operations. Candelaria, Casaronis, and Chapada.
Alongside the transformational long term growth potential of the Vicuna project. These opportunities collectively underpin our path to becoming a top 10 global copper producer.
At the Capital Markets Day, we approved the construction of an additional ball mill at Chapada, which will result in improved recoveries at the operation in anticipation of the Saúva growth project. Another tangible step in converting our brownfield pipeline into production.
Construction is expected to commence by year end with commissioning targeted for late 27. At Vicuna, significant milestone was achieved during the quarter with the approval of the inclusion of the Jose Maria and Philodel Sol deposits under Argentina's RIGI program.
Vicuna is the first copper mining project in Argentina to receive this more favorable designation. The approval provides long term fiscal stability and investment certainty and is a meaningful step forward as we advance towards a stage 1 sanctioning decision.
Subsequent to the quarter, Vicuna announced a long term royalty and infrastructure trust agreement with the San Juan Province over the life of mine, Which Consolidates Preexisting Provincial Royalties On The Filo Del Sol and Jose Maria deposits into 1 framework. This includes a 3% mining royalty and a 1.5% gross revenue royalty to form a provincial infrastructure trust.
The agreement provides long term economic certainty and enhances the stability of the operating framework Lastly, on this slide, as we continue to progress toward a sanctioning decision. we repurchased approximately 2.2 million shares during the quarter bringing our total year to date up to 6.1 million.
Which is consistent with our confidence in the intrinsic value of the company and the strength of our balance sheet. Since 2017, we have returned over $1.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
Operationally, the quarter was very consistent. Benefiting from disciplined execution across our operations.
And a supportive copper price environment. Copper production of approximately 76.9 thousand tons at a consolidated cash cost of $2.11/lb translated into $1.2 billion in revenue and 360 million of free cash flow from operations.
Further strengthening our balance sheet and providing the financial flexibility to continue investing in our growth pipeline while returning capital to shareholders. Despite the storm event after the quarter, which Juan Andres will talk to in more detail in the operations section, at the halfway point of the year, we continue to remain on track to achieve our annual production guidance range.
Our operations have performed well, giving us confidence in our ability to deliver on our full year objectives. Operational costs during the quarter were impacted by higher diesel prices should current pricing persist throughout the remainder of the year, we do still expect to be within our guidance cost outlook.
our guided cost outlook. Looking ahead, our focus continues to be on safety performance, delivering operational excellence, advancing our portfolio of organic growth opportunities, progressing the Vicuna project toward a sanctioning decision.
Supported by high margin long life assets, a disciplined capital allocation strategy, and 1 of the strongest copper growth profiles in the industry, we believe Lundin Mining is well positioned to deliver sustainable long term value for our shareholders. I will now hand it over to Juan Andres to walk through the operational results in more detail.
Juan Andres Morel
Thank you, Jack, and good morning, everyone. Our operations performed consistently in the second quarter and we remain on track to meet our annual production guidance for both copper and gold.
Subsequent to the end of the quarter, the storm in Chile impacted operations at Casarones, and I will provide more detail on these later on in the presentation. For the quarter, copper production from our 3 operations totaled 76.9 thousand tons as mentioned previously.
And for the first half of the year, we produced approximately 107 thousand tons of copper. Gold production for the quarter was 33 thousand oz.
Bringing our year to date gold production to approximately 65 thousand oz. When we compare our first half copper production to our full year guidance range of 310 thousand to 335 thousand tons.
We are tracking to guidance this despite the weather related events mentioned earlier, which is consistent with our expectations that production will be second-half weighted. Particularly at Candelaria.
For gold, we are also well positioned to achieve our full year guidance of 134 thousand to 149 thousand oz. Overall, the portfolio is performing in line with our planning assumptions, and our operations are delivering the consistency we need to meet our targets.
Moving to each operation individually, at Casarones copper production for the quarter was approximately 34 thousand tons with higher grades from phase 6 and strong throughput continuing to benefit from our full potential program initiatives. Year to date, production is 73 thousand tons.
Copper production at Candelaria for the quarter was approximately 31 thousand tons with mining rates somewhat lower than the first quarter, reflecting additional travel maintenance and ramp work in Phase 11 of the open pit. We remain confident that Candelaria is on track to meet its full year guidance.
Candelaria's production profile remains second half weighted with higher grades plan expected in the third and fourth quarter as we continue advancing phase 12. Gold production for the quarter was approximately 18 thousand oz in line with expectations.
At Chapada, we had a good quarter with strong throughput and copper grade slightly better than recent periods as we accessed higher grades portions in the South Pit. Copper production for the quarter was approximately 12 thousand tons, and gold production was 16 thousand oz.
We anticipate production levels to remain consistent with Q2 through the second half of the year. Subsequent to the quarter, Chile's Atacama region suffered severe winter storms that caused regional floodings and significant snowfall.
Candelaria saw over 35 mm of rain, and Caserones had 3.4 m of snow. The country reported 13 fatalities and over 2.2 thousand injuries associated with the storm, a truly tragic event that impacted several regions in Chile.
I want to acknowledge the Caseronis and Candelaria teams for all their hard work and proactively taking precautionary measures to protect employees, and a special thank you to the crew at Caserones that were isolated at the site during the storm for their dedication. We are fortunate that everyone was safe and no injuries were reported at our operations.
Mining operations at Candelaria were briefly impacted by heavy rainfall. However, the mill was able to continue to operate using existing ore stockpiles.
Mining operations have since returned to full capacity, and the company remains on track to meet its full year production guidance. At Caserones, operations were disrupted due to the heavy snow fall and high winds, which limited access to site and knocked out power for 12 days.
Backup power generators supported critical activities during this time. Winds reached over 125 km/h, and ice buildup damage 2 power line towers that require repairs.
Crews worked all last week to remove the damage structure and replace it. The photo on the right highlights the damage to the upper tower and cross arm of 1 of the towers.
Power has been restored at site, and the restart of operations at Casaronis is currently underway. Initial concentrate production is expected by the end of the week and full capacity early next week.
Prior to the storm, Casadones was tracking to the upper end of the copper guidance. Producing 73 thousand tons in the first half of the year against the range of a 130 thousand to 140 thousand tons.
We account for some weather related to disruptions during our planning process, but not to this magnitude. After reviewing the mind plan, for the remainder of the year and making some adjustment, we now anticipate coming in on the lower half of the guidance range at Caserones.
This assumes that the weather cooperates with us for the rest of the year and operations performed well in the third and fourth quarter. Cash cost guidance at Casirones remains the same.
Year to date, we are tracking below the guidance range at $1.85/lb, and we now anticipate being within the cost guidance range for Caserones, which is $2.05/lb to $2.25/lb. 310 thousand to 335 thousand tons of copper and 134 thousand to 149 thousand oz of gold for the year.
I will now turn the call over to Teitur to provide a summary on our financial results.
Teitur Poulsen
Thank you, Juan Andres, and good morning, everybody. As mentioned earlier, this was another quarter of consistent operational performance.
Which has translated into excellent financial results. Revenue from operations for the quarter was over $1.2 billion, a near record.
Driven by strong copper and gold prices alongside consistent production volumes across our 3 operations. Our revenue mix remained heavily skewed toward copper, accounting for approximately 88% of total revenue in the quarter.
Providing 1 of the highest leverages to copper amongst our peers. Gold contributed approximately 8% and moly approximately 2%.
With the remainder from silver and other metals. By operation, Casaronis was the largest revenue contributor at approximately $518 million followed by Candelaria at approximately $476 million and Chapada at $219 million.
On a year to date basis, revenue totaled 2.4 billion, reflecting the significant step up in realized prices for both copper and gold compared to prior year comparable periods. Now turning to volumes sold and realized prices.
During the quarter, we produced 77 thousand tons of copper and sold approximately 74 thousand tons. 1 of the lower quarters in recent times in terms of sales volumes for copper.
This relatively low sales volume was offset by a record high realized copper price of $6.51/lb. And a meaningful uplift from $4.40/lb realized in the same quarter last year.
Gold was sold at a realized price of $4.38 thousand/oz. At the end of the quarter, approximately 47.6 thousand tons of copper remained provisionally priced at $6.07/lb.
With final pricing to be settled in the coming quarters with the majority of these to be settled during the third quarter. Moving to production costs.
The underlying cost structure across our operations remained stable during the quarter with total production costs of approximately $513 million The primary driver of modest cost pressure in the quarter was higher diesel prices, which impacted all 3 operations to varying degrees. As Jack noted, should diesel pricing persists at current levels, through the remainder of the year, we still expect to meet consolidated cash cost guidance of $1.90-$2.10/lb copper.
Excluding this fuel driven impact, the underlying operational cost base continues to perform in line with our expectation. Higher diesel prices increased cost by approximately $15 million in the second quarter as compared to the first quarter.
Equating to approximately $0.08 to $0.10/lb copper on a consolidated basis. Our consolidated cash cost was $2.11/lb of copper for the quarter, demonstrating disciplined cost management despite higher diesel prices.
Although this was slightly above our 2026 guidance range of $1.90-$2.10/lb, we remain on track to achieve full year guidance. Year to date, cash costs are $1.88/lb, below the low end of the full year guidance range.
At Caserones, cash costs remained broadly in line with expectation at $2.14/lb, The cash costs are continuing to benefit from strong cathode production and favorable TCRC terms. And somewhat offset by higher diesel costs during this quarter.
At Candelaria, cash costs were somewhat higher in the quarter at $2.65/lb, reflecting lower byproduct credits driven by a lower realized gold price compared to recent periods. As well as slightly higher stripping costs and lower salt volumes relative to the prior quarter.
In addition, Candelaria also has a higher level of diesel consumption relative to our other assets. Therefore, the increase in diesel prices is more impactful at Candelaria compared to our other assets.
At Chapada, the absolute cost for the quarter amounted to $84 million which is in line with prior quarter. The cash cost recorded was 62¢/lb, which is below the bottom end of the full year guidance at Chapada.
At $0.75 to $0.95/lb. With the outperformance mainly relating to higher byproduct credits from a higher realized gold price as well as higher gold volume sold.
The company's consolidated cash cost guidance for the year remains at $1.90-$2.10/lb of copper. Turning to capital expenditure.
Sustaining capital expenditure for the quarter was $111 million with spending across all 3 operations primarily directed toward open pit waste stripping underground mine development, tailings storage facility upgrades, and investment in new mining equipment. Expansionary capital expenditure was $83 million in the quarter.
Bringing year to date expansionary spend to $137 million The majority of the expansionary capital in the quarter was attributable to the Vicuna project, We are spending totaled $74 million as activity continue to ramp up, including engineering, training, and early earthworks. As previously announced at Chapada, the sanctioning of the additional ball mill on the Saúva growth project has increased our full year expansionary capital guidance from $50 million to $85 million.
With construction expected to commence before year end and commissioning targeted. For late 2027.
Full year sustaining capital guidance remains unchanged at $550 million and we continue to reaffirm our total 2027 capital expenditure guidance of $1.03 billion for the full year implying a higher spend rate in the second half of the year to meet that guidance. Our key financial metrics for the second quarter are presented on Slides 16 and 17.
We generated adjusted EBITDA of $658 million for the quarter, and adjusted operating cash flow of $495 million On a year to date basis, adjusted EBITDA now stands at approximately $1.3 billion and adjusted operating cash flow at $945 million both of which are tracking ahead of our full year guidance as provided at our recent Capital Markets Day event in June. Free cash flow from operations for the quarter was $360 million, which reflects our working capital build of $36 million, sustaining capital investment of $111 million, as well as cash taxes paid of $139 million.
Adjusted earnings attributable to Lundin Mining shareholders was $257 million And on a per share basis, $0.30 for the quarter. Slide 18 presents in greater detail the sources and uses of cash in the second quarter.
The company's balance sheet remains strong, and we continue to hold a net cash position on the balance sheet. As already mentioned, the company generated adjusted operating cash flow of $495 million during the quarter, and after working capital build and capital investments, the free cash flow from the free cash flow generated during the quarter amounted to $265 million.
We completed the $250 million acquisition of an additional 5% interest in Caserones, along with a 31% interest in Los Helados during the quarter. This acquisition was funded entirely from our balance sheet.
During the quarter, we paid 2 regular quarterly dividends, with 1 payment occurring in April and another in June, totaling $34 million In addition, we completed approximately $56 million of share repurchases under our normal course issuer bid in the quarter. After the distribution of $82 million to the minority shareholder in Caserones and certain other smaller cash outlays, the net result is a balance sheet which remains at a net cash position of $79 million Despite having returned $90 million to shareholders during the quarter, in addition to the significant investments in the Vicuna district.
Through the acquisition of an additional equity stake in the Caserones mine, as well as a meaningful stake in the Los Helados project. In parallel with the continued capital investments into the Vicuna project.
And in addition, having $90 million in shareholder distributions. In addition to the net cash on the balance sheet, the company continues to have liquidity of $2.5 billion available through its corporate revolving credit facility.
This facility will increase to $4.5 billion once the Stage 1 of Vicuna has been sanctioned. Thus leaving the company fully funded for stage 1 constructions.
At the Vicuna project. I will now turn the call back to Jack to provide an update on the Vicuna project and our concluding remarks.
Jack O. A. Lundin
Thank you, Teitur. Vicuna continues to make significant progress towards a potential sanctioning decision with project activities already underway a strong foundation being established for future development.
We are pleased to announce that we secured a long term royalty agreement with San Juan province that locks in fiscal stability for the life of mine. The provincial royalty agreement marks another important milestone in advancing the project and further reinforces the strong collaborative relationship we have established with the province of San Juan.
The Vicuna project is subject to existing provincial royalties. A 3% mining royalty and a 1.5% for a provincial infrastructure trust.
Both of these royalties were reflected in the economics of the PEA. The provincial agreement consolidates infrastructure obligations associated with both deposits into a single 1.5% gross revenue infrastructure trust and caps the provincial mining royalty at 3% of gross revenue.
Both fixed for the life of the mine. As part of the agreement, the province will receive an upfront $250 million infrastructure trust contribution.
$125 million net to Lundin Mining that will provide funds to the San Juan Province for local infrastructure and community initiatives. The advance will help deliver near term tangible benefits to stakeholders while contributing to the broader development of the project.
Vicuna will receive a 5-year infrastructure trust payment holiday from first production. The agreement is subject to provincial approval and the advance payment is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 26.
Additionally, last week, we also received approval from the National Gas and Electric Regulatory Entity to build the high voltage power line and electrical infrastructure for the project. Once completed, it will tie into the Argentine interconnection system.
Vicuna will build out the Rodeo Chaparro corridor as part of the future electrical infrastructure of San Juan which will contribute to the growth of the province in the decades to come. This approval now clears the way and through the funding of the infrastructure, it allows the Acuna to access the majority of the capacity with the remainder available for public use.
Together with the recent RIGI approval and the provincial agreements, it strengthens the foundation for Vicuna and supports our objective of responsibly unlocking the full potential of the project for the benefit of all stakeholders. Our near term priorities are to advance project and operational readiness, deliver the stage 1 estimate update, unlock further value across stages 2 and 3 through trade offs and engineering, and position Vicuna for a successful sanction decision as early as before the end of this year.
With the support of Lundin Mining and our partners BHP, and the benefits provided through RIGI, we are building the foundation for what has the potential to become 1 of the world's most significant copper, gold, silver districts. In closing, the quarter demonstrated the operational consistency of our business.
High margin production from 3 long life assets at a time of strong copper and gold prices, which translated into $1.2 billion in revenue $658 million of adjusted EBITDA, and $360 million of free cash flow from operations. At the midway point of this year, we remain on track to achieve our full our full year consolidated production guidance range.
Although the storm affected operations at Caserones subsequent to the second quarter, we still expect to achieve guidance at Casaronis given we were tracking towards the upper end of the guidance range prior to this shutdown. While we are facing modest cost pressures from higher diesel prices, we expect to remain within cost guidance for the year.
Strategically, the quarter was significant. With the RIGI approval, royalty agreement and power line approval at Vicuna.
The sanctioning of the Chapada ball mill, the closing of the transaction to increased ownership in Caserones, and the addition of the Los Helados interest all reflect disciplined execution of a clear and well funded growth strategy. Each of these steps moves us meaningfully closer to our goal of becoming a top 10 global copper producer.
Operator, I will now open the call for any questions.
Operator
Thank you. Thank you.
And as a reminder, to ask a question, please press *11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. And to withdraw your question, please press *11 again.
Our first question will come from Orest Wowkodaw with Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Orest Wowkodaw
Hi, good morning. I have a question about the increase, the $100 million or up to $100 million increase in the NCIB that was announced.
Curious if you could speak or give us a little bit of color on that it is very positive to see something like that as you are about to go into a big project build. And I am just curious if we could if there is any read through on that with respect to where you are seeing your balance sheet, but also whether we could see similar increases to the NCIB, moving forward, say, for next year.
Jack O. A. Lundin
Hi, Orest. Thank you for the question.
We mentioned in the press release and on the call here that you know, we have increased it for a 1-time up to $100 million additional in inclusive of the $150 million original buyback approval. So for us, you know, we are looking at that based on the valuation that we have this year, based on, you know, the financial performance that we have had and you know, the positive tailwinds that we are seeing in commodity prices.
And so therefore, I think, you know, we are being opportunistic, and the board was able to approve that Going forward, it is too early to say if we are going to be looking to increase. As you mentioned, we are going to be coming into a pretty capital intensive period with Vicuna and our other brownfield expansion opportunities.
So we will look at that later down the line. But for now, I think looking at maintaining our absolute shareholder distribution program of $120 million a year in dividends and buybacks.
We will look for that to be maintained in the long term, and this is more of a 1-off opportunity.
Orest Wowkodaw
Appreciate the color. If I could just shift gears for a second, to Vicuna, you mentioned you are working on the Stage 1 update.
Can you just walk us through what milestones are left that would be in front of, the sanctioning decision, I guess, later this fall?
Jack O. A. Lundin
Absolutely. I mean, you know, mainly, it is the bottom up estimate that we are doing for stage 1 and kind of refining the execution plan and working with our contractors to really put ourselves in a position to have a, you know, successful execution plan for stage 1.
As you have seen, we have now got the, long term stability agreement in place with the province of San Juan. That came on the heels of achieving the RIGI approval back in June.
And so from permitting approval perspective, we are we are we are basically there. There are some various sectoral permits that we are still going to be achieving, which would be a requirement for a sanction decision.
But, really, the focus for us now is getting this bottom-up estimate completed, reviewing that with the technical independent peer review teams both at BHP and Lundin Mining, and then seeking a favorable sanction approval before, potentially before the end of this year. Okay.
Appreciate the color. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. And our next question is gonna come from Matthew Greene with Goldman Sachs.
Your line is open.
Matthew Greene
Hey, good morning, Jack and team. Thanks for taking my question.
Juan Andres, perhaps 1 for you. Look, I appreciate you juggling some extreme external factors here with the weather, but just on Candelaria with the rain, well beyond your normal operating assumptions, how do regulators, approach this when you have to maybe temporarily discharge water And perhaps you can just talk us through how you manage all that excess water.
Do you have to direct it into the pits? You know, I appreciate you are back at production now, but I am just thinking about how you are able to manage that and if there is, anything around from an environmental standpoint that could come back.
Juan Andres Morel
Yeah. Thank you, Matthew, for the question.
Interesting angle for the event. Most of the we are in the middle of the desert, so most of the water is up absorbed by the pit and the waste dump.
So we do not have any contact water that we need to discharge to any nearby river or body of water. So, this is a normal operation.
We did have an inspection from Sernageomin, which is the, agent that oversees the mining industry in Chile, and they visited all our facilities in Candelaria and found that everything was being operated and managed as expected.
Matthew Greene
Okay. that is great to hear.
And then just on Caserones, in your opening remarks, you said you are reviewing the mine plan and making some adjustments. You feel comfortable in the guidance range.
Can you just expand on what adjustments you are making to the mine plan in the second half?.
Juan Andres Morel
So we found some opportunities, basically, by adjusting the location of some loading equipment, we will be able to ensure the high grades that we had in the fourth quarter to make sure that there are going to be mined during the years So, basically, keeping the high grades within the mine plan of 2026 And we also found an opportunity to, postpone 1 shutdown at the mill. Given that we will be basically not operating for several weeks, we think that the liners of the mill can be postponed until the first week of January.
Matthew Greene
Got it. that is great.
And if I could just squeeze 1 more in, more for clarification. Teitur, congratulations on the San Juan government, province agreement.
Just to be clear, that payment's in the December Is that already budgeted in your CapEx guidance? Sorry if I missed that.
Teitur Poulsen
No. it is not quite and we do not really see it as a as a CapEx item.
This is an advanced contribution in lieu of, in return for getting a 5 year royalty holiday when we start production. So we paid an upfront $250 million.
that is roughly NPV neutral when you look at saving royalties for the first 5 years of production. Okay.
Okay. Got it.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. And the next question is gonna come from Ioannis Masvoulas with Morgan Stanley.
Your line is open.
Ioannis Masvoulas
Hello. Thank you very much for the presentation.
First question on Vicuna. I guess we will have to wait for the FID decision and outcome of the CapEx review for stage 1 sometime by the end of the year.
But I also wanted to ask about Stages 2 and 3. Where you are planning to release a PFS by the second half of next year.
Can you talk about your latest thoughts around possible changes to the flow sheet and mind planning and whether a similar bottom up CapEx review is on the cards like we have seen with stage 1? Thank you.
Jack O. A. Lundin
Hi, Ioannis. Thanks for the question.
So definitely before we would look to sanction future stages of Vicuna, we would be doing a bottom up estimate on both stages 2 and 3. Right now, as we guided in our capital Markets Day, kind of second half of next year to have an updated study on stages 2 and 3.
We are looking at kind of simplifying the flow sheet for Stage 2 was a bit complex in what we presented in the PEA. So the team is working on kind of a simplified flow sheet, which will, probably form the basis of the PFS.
And then on stage 3, you know, a lot of the information is coming through the updated drill program that we have. So we continue to drill out the deposit looking at the lateral extensions east and west in the Aurora zone, We are also finding some mineralization kind of to the north and south.
I mean, the deposit continues to grow in all directions. So that will inform our optimized mine plan.
So there is gonna be some changes and some improvements that will be presented in the second half of next year. But nothing substantive that we could be reporting on other than other than that flow sheet optimization that I mentioned for stage 2.
Ioannis Masvoulas
Thanks for that, Jack. And, a second question on Caserones.
on the moly production, which was fairly weak relative to, expectations. Due to recoveries that have come down to 27%.
Can you give a sense on what we should expect for the second half of this year? And when do you actually expect recoveries to improve towards the historical levels?
Juan Andres Morel
Hi, Ioannis. Thank you for the question.
We have been experiencing some, metallurgical, problems in the moly plant. As we move from the secondary portion of the deposit into the primary portion of the deposit, we are seeing a new, mineralogic species coming, up with the with the moly.
And that has been causing some recovery issues at the moly plant. So we are dealing with that.
We are investigating, different reagents and changes to the flow sheet. But, definitely, for this year, we do not expect to meet the, the target that we had for the moly.
And we expect to resume the level of recoveries and performance in the next year. And, of course, as we move away from that zone in the pit, recoveries will improve.
But as so as long as we are in that part of the deposit, we will be seeing these challenges.
Ioannis Masvoulas
Okay. Very, very clear.
Thank very much. And maybe 1 last question for Teitur on this upfront payment of $250 million on a 100% basis related to the infrastructure trust.
If I were to put everything on spot, it would seem that it is actually potentially NPV positive for Lundin Mining. Is that fair to say?
And was your comment on NPV neutral based on a more conservative price tag? Or would you have a different conclusion based on what you have on your production profile?
Teitur Poulsen
Yeah. I mean, it all, I guess, depends on what your view on copper prices is at the time when we start up, and it will also, obviously, depend on the ramp up profile in that initial phase because the turn is locked for 5 years.
You know? So depending on the cumulative production volume over that 5 years, it then that will dictate whether this has been neutral or slightly positive or negative.
But I think all stakeholders, us, BHP, and the province have looked at this as being roughly a neutral deal to everybody. Very clear.
Thanks very much, and, best of luck.
Operator
Yep. Yep.
Matthew Murphy with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Matthew Murphy
Hello. I had another weather-related question.
How did Vicuna fare in this winter storm? You said Caserones, I think, got 3.5 meters of snow.
Did you see the same thing on the Argentina side of the border?
Jack O. A. Lundin
Hi, Matthew. Good question.
And, yeah, definitely the, on the Argentinian side of the border and where the Batidero camp is, located approximately 40 km or 50 km away from where Casaronis is. You know, it was a extreme weather event that they felt on at Bettadero and in the upper region of the San Juan Province.
So, fortunately, no major safety incidents. And, you know, the recovery program is less extensive because we are not in project development mode or in operations.
You know, there are some early work early work activities that had to be paused. And drilling in the winter for the Vicuna District is always tightened up.
To, you know, make sure that we are not having rigs kind of exposed and in far-to-reach areas. So I think they were well prepared, but, no doubt it was a significant severe weather event that impacted, both sides of that mountain range.
Matthew Murphy
And do you know last time Casarones would have experienced something like this? Yes.
Juan Andres Morel
Hi, Matthew. This is Juan Andres.
In 2017,, the previous operator also experienced a similar situation like this. At that time, they had, like, 320 cm of snow.
I know they also experienced a shutdown. So, we could say, likely, there was some experience in the team on dealing with the situation like this.
Matthew Murphy
Got it. Okay.
Yeah. Just interested because, you know, everyone thinks about high altitude and how risky, and then you have a major event and no guidance cut.
So that is good to see. And then the language around sanctioning where it says as early as year end are we still okay to read that as likely before year end?
for Vicuna?
Jack O. A. Lundin
Yeah, Matthew. it is Jack here of course.
Yeah. that is what we have been, you know, setting our target on, since the earlier part of this year, and so that is still remains intact.
As you have seen, we have made a lot of progress on getting the various stability agreements in place, and now we are working on the you know, the estimate and the execution plan for stage 1. So yeah, we are still trending towards the end of this year.
Matthew Murphy
Okay. And then 1 more just on the cadence of CapEx.
You are tracking fairly low relative to guidance Really across the board, but especially on expansionary CapEx items. Any thoughts around how we might see that ramp?
Teitur Poulsen
Yeah. No.
I think that is just a function of the nature of a big project like Vicuna. You are continuously ramping up So activity levels towards the end of the year are always going to be higher than at the beginning of the year.
So that is not really outside our forecast at the moment. On the sustaining CapEx side, I think it is particularly Caserones, which is lagging a bit behind our guidance, and that is again, related to cadence of certain equipment purchases and certain other projects that are scheduled in the second half you know, notably on IT improvements.
Telecommunication improvements, etcetera. So the Casarola teams feels confident that they will be able to catch up in the second half on some of these projects.
So, therefore, we retain full year guidance on all fronts.
Jack O. A. Lundin
And to complement what Teitur was saying also, remember that we sanctioned the additional ball mill at Chapada at the midpoint of this year, so that expansionary CapEx would not have come in until now. Yep.
Exactly.
Matthew Murphy
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, Our next question will come from Lawson Winder with Bank of America.
Your line is open.
Lawson Winder
Hi. This is Adam Siemiradzki calling on behalf of Lawson.
Just following up on the Chapada how should we think about growth CapEx there in 2027? Should we expect to see a level similar to 2026?
Any detail would be appreciated there.
Teitur Poulsen
Yeah. For the for the mill, that project is gonna be all in roundabout $65 million, of which we are spending $35 million this year.
So it is roughly a split $50.50 between this year and next year. And then if you couple in this Phase 1 of Saúva, where we have guide to all in CapEx of $110 million for that project, including the ball mill.
So the ball mill $65 million out of the $110 million, and the rest will be allocated to Saúva once Saúva is finally sanctioned by our board.
Lawson Winder
Fantastic. Thank you.
And, I was hoping you could talk about, the strategy on M&A following the activity this quarter with the increased stake in Caserones and acquiring interest at Los Helados. Is there an appetite for more or for larger acquisitions?
Jack O. A. Lundin
Thanks for the question. As always, Lundin Mining being a Lundin Group entity, stay opportunistic when we are looking at opportunities to grow our portfolio through M&A activities.
I mean, we have got a very solid asset base today. We are looking to grow production at all of our sites.
And then with the big development projects, of Vicuna, I think we have got a full plate of opportunities in the existing portfolio. That being said, with the, you know, financial standing that we have, and kind of where we are seeing the market today, there is there is always opportunities to, you know, to look at.
But, at the moment, we are not actively pursuing, anything, you know, of scale and we really are focused on the assets that we have in our portfolio. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. And our next question will come from Stephen Ioannou with ATB.
Your line is now open.
Stephane Ioannou
Yes. Thanks very much.
Just curious, you mentioned the stage 2 sort of update study anticipated sometime later next year. We would look to sort of a simplified flow sheet or operation.
Can you just say is that centered largely on the gold and the copper sort of components coming out of Filo, or should we read into that you may also be considering potentially other sort of strategic feed sources going into stage 2.
Jack O. A. Lundin
Thanks for the question. No, really it is just optimizing around the orebody of the Filo del Sol deposits and the oxide zone at Philo.
So it is still very much intact on, you know, building off of what we designed for stage 2, but just looking to optimize and potentially simplify that, that flow sheet. Okay.
Thanks very much, guys.
Operator
Thank you. And our next question will come from Matthew Greene with Goldman Sachs.
Your line is open.
Matthew Greene
Hey, Jack. Thanks for taking my follow-up.
Actually, just a follow on from that. Phase 2 streamlining.
I mean, how are you, to the extent you can, are you looking at sort of new technologies, novel technologies? Is this part of your thinking?
Jack O. A. Lundin
Yes, Matthew, good question. We are we are definitely looking at different types of leaching technologies and seeing how we can implement that into the design for stage 2.
Early to say kind of what that is and how we are going to be building off of it, but absolutely, we are seeing some very promising technologies being produced today for leaching, and that is something that we would love to and will look to incorporate in the updated study for stage 2. that is great.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's Q&A session.
Also this will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.