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Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptApril 29, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Michelin conference call. I now hand you over to Mr.

Yves Chapot, General Manager and Group CFO. Yves Chapot: Thank you very much.

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I will have the pleasure to share with you our sales figures for the first quarter of 2026, and try to give a little bit of color about our business going forward.

For this meeting, I am accompanied by Bénédicte de Bonnechose, who is going to take over the Group CFO from June 1st. The first quarter of 2026 has started slightly better than what we were expecting.

The group is posting stable revenue at iso-forex. We have 3% growth in the volumes sold at the Michelin brand in all our replacement markets across all our business segments.

The three M&A operations that we have announced at the end of 2025 and early 2026 are going well on completion and two acquisitions have been already closed. At the moment I'm speaking, the Cooley Group is integrated for two months over the first quarter, and Flexitallic will be integrated in the group figures from the 1st of April.

Nevertheless, the context in the Middle East has cast a shadow over the year to go, and at this stage, it is very difficult for us to assess the precise impact on our businesses. One certainty is the increasing cost of energy and raw material, which is going to impact our costs.

In this context, we have not changed our guidance for the full year. Looking first at the market.

The market in the first quarter of 2026 was negative as expected, particularly the original equipment market. The passenger car tire market overall is negative, OE being down by 4%, mostly driven by the scale down of incentive in China and a market decreasing in North America, stable in Europe but with a positive mix in terms of electrification — the European market is posting positive growth in OE for electric vehicles.

The replacement market is stable overall. We have to keep in mind that -3% in Europe and -7% in North America are mostly driven by Q1 and Q2 2025 anticipated buying from importers — in Europe due to the antidumping inquiries led by the European Commission, and in North America due to the perspective of tariffs.

The Chinese market is growing by 9% over the first quarter. The two-wheel market is slightly growing as well in most areas.

Regarding transportation — truck and buses — the OE market is -3%, mostly driven by North America at -19%, in continuation of what has happened during the last half of 2025. Although we see that the orders of new vehicles have started to increase in North America, there is still a quite important backlog of tractor inventories at the dealership that will take a few months to be fully absorbed.

Growth of sellout of vehicles is absorbed not by the production of new vehicles but mostly by consumption of vehicles already in inventories. South America was also highly impacted at -16% over the quarter.

On the replacement side, +3% overall, +7% in Europe, -12% in North America — in North America mostly the consequence of the tariff that led to a surge in import during the first two quarters of 2025. On the specialty side — Beyond Road, agro — we see a recovery in small machine segments, particularly in Europe and North America.

High power tractors market is still depressed. Replacement market is recovering slightly in the different zones.

Infrastructure market is posting more favorable trends. Material handling is stable.

Mining market is growing at a modest pace. The aircraft market was positive over the quarter.

The group posts stable revenue at constant exchange rate. The exchange rate is weighing heavily on our top line at EUR -355 million or -5.4%, of which 70% is coming from the U.S.

dollar. In terms of scope, we have the positive effect of the integration of the Cooley Group for two months, offset by the impact of the disposal of our compound line activities to the SIT Group — explaining the small net scope effect over Q1.

Our volumes have lost 1.4% over the quarter, taking into account the strong growth in the replacement market for the Michelin brand at 3%, mostly offset by the original equipment market in both transportation and consumer businesses. Price mix is positive at 1.1%.

The price effect is -0.8%, mostly due to the effect of raw material price adjustments as raw material prices started to decrease during H2 2025, mechanically affecting around 30% of our revenue. Some measures were also taken during H2 2025 to adjust our competitivity.

Mix is positive at +1.9%, including both the constant effect of our growth in 18-inch and above — now representing 69% of our global volumes at the Michelin brand for consumer segment — and a positive mix effect between OE and replacement markets. Non-tire sales are stable at iso-scope and currency.

This is the first time we are presenting our actual figures through our new reporting segment, and the first time the Polymer Composite Solutions segment is published separately. PCS is posting 5.1% growth overall, the only segment posting positive revenue over the quarter, demonstrating the relevance of our strategy — with the help of the inclusion of the Cooley Group, contributing 10 points to revenue growth.

Consumer volumes are growing by 1.3%, with OE globally decreased in line with the markets, while replacement markets are very positive, particularly at the Michelin brand. We are still losing ground on the Tier 3 segment in Europe and North America.

Tier 2 is posting strong growth over different geographies including China. The transportation segment is showing a stronger decline in volume due to the contraction of OE sales, particularly in North and South America.

Replacement sales are positive in Europe and decreasing in North America and South America. In specialties, volume growth of 2.5% thanks to mining and aircraft, but also stabilizing Beyond Road activity at iso-scope.

100% of the volume lost is coming from OE, mostly equally shared between truck and bus and passenger cars, with a slight decrease in agro. Replacement volumes are stable with a growth of 3% in Michelin brand, offset by volume lost in Tier 2 and particularly Tier 3 brands.

For the Polymer Composite Solutions business, in the sealing business we record a very strong performance, particularly in hydraulic applications. Coated fabrics and films are growing, thanks to business development beyond the marine application.

The belting market is posting slight growth in general industrial and aeronautics applications. The heavy conveyor belt market is declining, particularly in Australia, compounded by an industrial maintenance in the sites that took three months instead of one.

Overall, solid growth in sealing and coated fabrics with a slight setback in conveyors. As a reminder on the PCS activity from our Capital Market Day 2024 figures updated with 2025 — Fenner, which joined Michelin in May 2018, generated EUR 820 million of sales.

This activity should, in the 2025 pro forma, represent EUR 1.7 billion — a compounded organic growth of 3% plus a similar magnitude of acquisition-driven growth. The operating margin was 11.5% in 2018 and would have been 15% in 2025.

The portfolio has evolved from two-thirds conveyors in 2018 to a much more balanced activity today. We are still expecting to close the last of the three announced deals — the Tex Tech company — around mid-year.

Looking forward for the full year 2026. At this stage, we did not change the outlook for the full-year tire market — basically stable market, softer in H1 than H2 — particularly softer in OE, both for passenger car and light truck and trucks during H1.

For Specialties, the market should be around zero. Specialties should post a slight growth given the positive trend in mining and aircraft.

We are studying potential systemic impact on demand following the conflict in the Middle East. On the Middle East situation — we have mostly commercial operations there, employing around less than 100 employees in sales, no tire manufacturing activity in the regions, and we operate two joint ventures in Saudi Arabia — one in the Michelin commercial operation and one in the sealing activity of our PCS servicing oil and gas industries.

Altogether, the region represents less than 1% of group sales. We have set up crisis cells to monitor the situation, follow potential disruption for regional customer deliveries, look for alternative commercial routes and monitor upstream supply chain resilience.

At this stage, it is very difficult to predict precisely the consequences. It will depend on the duration and extent of the conflict.

For the time being, we are working on an assumption of oil price at around $100 per barrel till the end of the year. With this assumption, we know one thing for sure — we will have to face inflation.

We were expecting a tailwind of EUR 400 million on raw material at the start of the year. This tailwind will be at least completely wiped out by inflation in raw material, energy and logistics.

We estimate we should have to face at least EUR 400 million of additional costs, of which three quarters are related to raw material and 25% related to energy and logistics — only 25% of energy because half of our energy cost purchases are already secured since the beginning of the year. What is much more difficult to assess is the potential impact on tire demand — maybe first on OE and then on replacement.

Today, we have no sign of slowdown in any market. We also have reasonable supply chain visibility till the end of June — beyond that, it is extremely difficult to assess given that nobody knows how long and how far this conflict will continue.

Obviously, all these elements will put some pressure on our margin and our free cash flow, with inflation contributing to the ballooning of our working capital. With the structural levels of how we manage operations — the fact that we are vertically integrated in some areas particularly in synthetic rubber, the localization of our operations, and our proven margin resilience in similar or very volatile environments — all that leads us to maintain our guidance.

Our guidance is to generate a segment operating income at iso-scope and iso-forex above the one we generated in 2025, and a free cash flow above EUR 1.6 billion. In this highly volatile and unpredictable environment, I would like to insist on the strength of the group and the fact that we are holding the cap on our strategy.

First, we continue in 2026 to launch new products to further enhance our innovation leadership. Second, we continue to work on and improve our efficiency.

In Europe, we have recently announced that we have sold and closed the remaining of our U.K. retail distribution operations for light vehicles.

We have recently announced the consolidation of our agricultural track activity factories from two factories to one in North America. Last, we have maintained our dividend per share for 2025 versus 2024, leading to a dividend yield of 4.9%.

The group has started a EUR 750 million share buyback program launched in the second half of February that should be executed by the end of November. Operator: First question is from Stephen Benhamou, Bank of America.

Stephen Benhamou: I have two questions. First, regarding your pricing strategy — can you give more color?

I understand you adopted a more aggressive pricing strategy to boost market share gains, notably in the U.S. Do you expect overall a negative pricing for the year?

If not, how do you intend to increase prices without weighing on volumes? Second, regarding cost inflation — you indicate at least EUR 400 million including raw mat, energy and logistics.

What about wage inflation? Is it gross or net impact post mitigation measures?

What's the phasing of those EUR 400 million between H1 and H2? Yves Chapot: Regarding the pricing strategy — as you know, I'm not going to comment our forward pricing strategy as there is currently an investigation from the European Commission on that topic.

What I can tell you is that we have on one side the index business, which has a mechanical impact. On the other end, we have implemented a transformation to manage our pricing in a more and more agile manner — sometimes adjusting the price on some SKUs upward and some other SKUs downward even in the same category.

What I can tell you is that there were already some price increases announced and implemented, for example, in Europe on May 1st, recently communicated to the market. Because we are already seeing some element of inflation, particularly energy and transportation costs including maritime shipping.

The answer regarding the balance between price and market share and competitivity is all in the quality of the execution by the team. Since the last quarter of 2025, our team has demonstrated their ability to grow market share, particularly in the replacement market, thanks to a very agile pricing strategy.

Regarding inflation — for the time being, it's mostly energy and raw material impacting us. We have not computed any wage inflation at this stage.

It's something that might happen in H2 if the situation worsens. Regarding the phasing, most of the phasing will be on H2.

We are already seeing the impact of inflation particularly on elements that go directly in the P&L such as transportation. All the elements contributing to production costs — either raw materials or energy in production costs — will impact our P&L mostly in H2.

We have four to six months of inventory lag between the increase of these costs and the inflation in our cost of goods sold. Stephen Benhamou: Did you quantify your mitigation measures?

Yves Chapot: We are quantifying it. We can classify our business in two categories.

For the business with midterm contracts with indexation clauses, there will be a mechanical lag effect between the inflation, the increase of cost of goods sold and the increase of price — this part will probably not be fully hedged over 2026. For the rest, we have generally demonstrated our ability in the past to hedge our cost.

Operator: Next question is from Akshat Kacker, JPMorgan. Akshat Kacker: Three questions.

First on volumes — a very good beat in Q1 versus expectations. Are you already seeing signs of pre-buys specifically in March?

Have you seen any signs of strong dealer buying ahead of those price increases? Are there any signs of selling activity looking different at the start of Q2?

Second on the trucks business — the North American truck market could be inflecting from very low levels, and comps look easy from Q2. On the other side, replacement volumes have been high with high inventories.

How are you thinking about overall truck volumes for the rest of 2026? Third on cost sensitivity of the conflict — is the EUR 400 million a second half impact?

And is it only the direct impact from synthetic rubber and carbon black, or have you considered broader inflation in steel, chemicals, supply chain et cetera? Yves Chapot: For the time being, we have not seen any significant pre-buy over Q1 in any of the regions where we are operating.

That's something we monitor very closely as we track every month the sell-in, the sell-out, and the sell of our product to end users by distributors. For the truck market — on OE, we consider that although we have seen an increase in orders of new vehicles, the market will probably need another three to four months to flush out the over-inventory built up by OEMs in the past two years.

It's very probable that over Q2 and even early Q3, we are not going to see a sharp increase in tire orders from OEMs because they are still selling vehicles produced earlier. As far as the cost and the duration of the conflict, the EUR 400 million are obviously mostly on H2.

We already see some concrete inflation in transportation. On the EUR 400 million of raw material assessment, we are looking at all raw materials — so synthetic rubbers, a lot of chemical products, resins.

Natural rubber prices have also started to slightly increase. We take into consideration all the elements of the different raw materials that we are acquiring.

Operator: Next question is from Thomas Besson, Kepler Cheuvreux. Thomas Besson: First — do you see the state of your North American business in H1 2026 more aligned with Q3 or Q4 on an underlying basis?

Yves Chapot: Q1 2026 was a little bit in between Q3 and Q4 2025. All OE markets are negative in North America for both consumer vehicles and professional vehicles.

The replacement market in 2025 was boosted by tariff anticipation. It's still a market in between the two last quarters of 2025.

Thomas Besson: Do we continue to see dynamic momentum in April? Any anticipation from dealers of future price increases?

Yves Chapot: As far as I know, we have not seen a huge anticipation by dealers of future price increases. When price increases are announced, the magnitude is not too huge for what has been announced in Europe for example.

When we look at our own figures, we also have to be careful because 2025 in April had a difficult momentum in Europe. Thomas Besson: Any update on the European Commission China treatment that was delayed from December?

Yves Chapot: We expect the antidumping measures to be announced at the end of Q2. We do not expect any retroactive implementation.

There will be tariffs on antidumping in Europe for passenger car tires probably from July or end of June onward. Operator: Next question is from Harry Martin, Bernstein.

Harry Martin: First, historically Michelin has been able to pass on raw material costs without major EBIT impact. Why would this time be any different?

Are there any differences in price premiums, market positions or mix we need to be aware of? Second, you talk about expanding market share in the 18-inch and above segment — can you give more color on which markets, vehicle types and price points?

Yves Chapot: Regarding our ability to pass the raw material effect — we always have to keep in mind the lag effect for the index business, which plays negatively when raw material prices are increasing and positively when stabilizing or decreasing. We will probably not fully compensate the full effect of inflation on raw material in 2026 — some part, at least for the index business, will need to be recovered in 2027.

The difference versus the past, for example versus what happened after the war in Ukraine, is probably that we are now already at a high level of raw material prices. The question is the ability of the market to accept the level of price that this kind of inflation may require — that's more a question on the affordability side.

Regarding market share gains in consumer segment, particularly in 18-inch and above — I want also to share that we have gained market share in some segments below 18-inch. In terms of markets, it covers mostly all the markets in Asia and in Europe, and to a lesser extent North America.

In terms of vehicles, in China where I was last week, we are quite successful with local OEMs and partly with electric vehicles — that's where we are gaining market share, particularly for the OE market. Operator: Next question is from Monica Bosio, Intesa Sanpaolo.

Monica Bosio: First, are you still confirming a positive volume trend for Q2 and positive growth in volumes for 2026? Maybe some flavor across consumers, transportation and specialties.

Second, what is the company's ability to pass through raw material cost increases in Polymer Composite Solutions? Third, can you split the EUR 400 million of gross headwinds between raw mat, energy and other items?

Yves Chapot: The EUR 400 million of headwind following the war in the Middle East is 75% — around EUR 300 million — in raw material and EUR 100 million between energy and transportation costs. Regarding Polymer Composite Solutions — except for the conveyor belt, the weight of raw material in the production cost is far lower than in tire production.

If there is inflation, the companies operating in the different businesses will have to adjust their strategy depending on the respective weight, which can be very different between sealing, a small belt or a heavy conveyor belt. Regarding volumes — the beginning of the year had us on track to deliver slightly positive volumes in 2026, with Q1 negative, Q2 around flattish and Q3 positive.

On one side, there are elements in favor of confirming potential volume growth — we have suffered particularly in Q2 in Europe and Q3 in North America last year, so we have more favorable bases for comparison. On the other end, nobody knows at the moment what will be the impact on the final demand — transportation, mileage driven by consumers when they have the sticker shock of gas prices at the station, or even the availability potentially impacted.

At this stage, I'm not in a position to comment the impact of any of these elements on final demand. Operator: Next question is from Martino De Ambroggi, Equita.

Martino De Ambroggi: What are the main risks for your supply chain? Could you remind us what is the updated sensitivity to oil price, butadiene and natural rubber?

Yves Chapot: Geographically speaking, we are expecting more tense supply chain situations in Asia than in Europe and then in North America — in roughly that order. Last year we bought around more than EUR 5.5 billion of raw materials, of which 29% is natural rubber, 22% synthetic rubber, and 21% fillers — carbon black and silica.

The rest is shared between chemical products at around 15%, steel cords 9%, and textile. Of course, there is a direct sensitivity on oil price — some of the products we use are derived from the long oil transformation value chain.

When butadiene or synthetic rubber prices increase, there is an indirect effect on natural rubber because some manufacturers might switch between the two depending on prices. I will not try to give you a magic formula translating $1 per barrel into EUR 1 million of raw material cost.

Keep in mind that all raw materials are priced in USD, but we are purchasing in euro, RMB, Thai baht, Brazilian real and USD — so there is also a currency effect on our acquisition cost. Martino De Ambroggi: A housekeeping question — at the beginning of the year you mentioned EUR 400 million tailwind from raw mat and EUR 200 million headwind from other inflators.

Can you reconcile that with the EUR 400 million additional cost headwind you're now discussing? Yves Chapot: At the beginning of the year, the assumption was: EUR 400 million tailwind from raw mat and EUR 200 million headwind from other inflators including salaries in some regions, energy and transportation.

Now, on top of those original assumptions, we are going to get at least EUR 400 million of additional headwind from the Middle East conflict, of which EUR 300 million is from raw materials. So the net effect on raw material versus last year will be around EUR 100 million.

Another EUR 100 million comes from energy and transportation. The net effect of cost inflation outside raw material should be around EUR 300 million.

Operator: Next question is from Michael Foundoukidis, ODDO BHF. Michael Foundoukidis: Some charts in the presentation seem to show market scenarios slightly higher than what was indicated in February.

Why doesn't the market scenario change given you are indicating the Middle East issue will have a negative impact on volumes? Yves Chapot: We have not changed our outlook globally in terms of market for both consumer and transportation.

The hypothesis on slide 13 was built without taking into account potential systemic effects of the Middle East conflict on final demand. Till the month of March, we have not seen a very different market picture than the one we described at the 2025 yearly disclosure.

The guidance still embeds a slight volume growth at this point. Michael Foundoukidis: On pricing for Q2 — will replacement price increases be sufficient to offset negative indexation clauses and lead to break even on the pricing side?

Do you expect to maintain approximately 2% mix for the full year? Yves Chapot: On the indexation clause — the ones we saw in Q1 and will see in Q2 are due to raw material prices of H2 2025.

We will probably see indexation tools playing the other way in the very late part of the year because of raw material prices increasing now, translating later into cost of goods sold. I will not mix that with increase on the replacement market, because we try to have a fair price policy and not overcompensate one market by the other.

The overinflation triggered by the Middle East situation that will impact our index business cost of goods sold in H2 will not be fully recovered by price adjustments because there is a timeline in the application of the tools. Regarding mix — the mix was quite strong in H1.

As we can expect a slight rebalance between OE and RT, maybe we'll have a slightly lower mix effect in H2. Michael Foundoukidis: Since February, volumes are probably more negative than assumed and costs also are more negative.

How do you offset that in your guidance? Was the February guidance very cautious?

Yves Chapot: Of course, volumes can be less positive in H2 than we were expecting in February. We will also offset that by strong cost discipline.

We have implemented in the past two years one of the largest restructuring plans the group has ever implemented and continue to work on our cost structure. We have downsized our distribution retail operations in the U.K.

for light vehicles in February, and recently announced the closure of one agricultural tracks factory in the U.S. and merger of activity with another one.

What we can also say is that our volumes and mix were better in Q1 than what we were expecting in early February. Operator: Last question is from Ross MacDonald, Citi.

Ross MacDonald: First, on mix benefits — can you guide on the overall mix contribution for the full year 2026? How should we think about the overall mix benefits to revenue this year?

Second, coming back to the net price versus raw mats bridge — can you split both buckets in terms of your assumptions for 2026 so I can work back how much price mix and volume need to be to offset that? Third, oil is continuing to rise, tariffs are in the U.S., and industry pricing isn't moving up too much.

How do you think about value over volume strategy in that context? Is there a benefit to Michelin going after lower end volume in the U.S.

to protect volumes and fixed cost absorption this year? Yves Chapot: Taking your questions in reverse order.

The weight of raw material, energy and transportation costs is respectively lower in premium brands and premium products than in entry or budget products. Except if there was a massive tear-down market effect, generally this kind of situation is more favorable for premium manufacturers like us.

The cheaper brands that are mostly imported from Asia will be impacted by inflation faster and will also have to bear the extra cost of transportation. Regarding the net assumed price raw material in your 2026 bridge — at the start of the year, we were expecting EUR 400 million tailwind on raw mat.

We now know we have at least EUR 300 million headwind from the Middle East event — net is still EUR 100 million tailwind. On cost of energy and other inflation, we were expecting EUR 200 million on inflation, on which we will have to add the EUR 100 million coming from the Middle East conflict.

Regarding mix — if you look over the past years, we generally see a mix effect of around 1.5%. We are at 1.9% in Q1.

I believe 1.5% is probably the most relevant assumption you can take for the full year. Ross MacDonald: Would the analysis imply there's maybe a further EUR 150 million cost headwind into early 2027?

Yves Chapot: For sure, if the situation is lasting further, there will be a carryover on 2027. Let's take the situation quarter by quarter.

Nobody knows when the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened. I will not make any speculation beyond one quarter.

Yves Chapot: I believe that's the last question. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your attention.

Our next meeting is scheduled with the shareholders meeting on the 22nd of May. I would like to take this opportunity of this last quarterly call on my side to thank you for your attention and for the very stimulating exchanges we had in the past eight years.

Thank you very much, and I wish you a good evening. Bye-bye.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Michelin conference call. Thank you for your participation.

You may now disconnect.