Expand Energy Corporation

Expand Energy Corporation

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Oct 27Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 18, 2026

Operator

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr.

Colby Arnold. Sir, please begin.

Colby Arnold

Thank you, Howard. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss Expand Energy's 2025 fourth quarter and full year financial and operating results.

Hopefully, you've had a chance to review our press release and the updated investor presentation that we posted to our website yesterday. During this morning's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which consist of statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our beliefs, goals, expectations, forecasts, projections, and future performance, and the assumptions underlying such statements.

Please note that there are a number of factors that will cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements, including the factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and in other SEC filings. Please recognize that, except as required by applicable law, we undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on such statements.

We may also refer to some non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparisons across periods and with peers. For any non-GAAP measure, we use a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure, and can be found on our website.

With me on the call today are Mike Wichterich, Josh Viets, Dan Turco, and Brittany Raiford. Mike will give a brief overview of our results, and then we will open up the teleconference for Q&A.

With that, thank you again, and I will now turn the teleconference over to Mike.

Mike Wichterich

Thanks, Colby, and good morning. Like to start out by talking about 2025.

Think we had a really phenomenal execution year. We have 15% reduction in our break-evens in the Haynesville.

That is very difficult to do. The team should be sort of congratulated on that.

It's it's sort of phenomenal. It doesn't just help our reinvestment rate, it also helps our inventory.

You'll notice in the deck we've moved locations over to the left, getting closer lower break-evens. Think that is a really tribute to the team.

When we did the Southwestern merger, we focused on reducing debt. We're fulfilling that promise this year.

We've reduced debt, but we also returned a lot of money to our shareholders, and we continue to think that's a good a good way for the company to continue. Volatility, look, we're seeing volatility in gas prices today.

You've seen it all quarter. We believe in hedging, and our hedging program has been effective.

We have $200 million in gains this year, but I mean just look at today's prices, and you're glad we have them. You'll see we're very active this this quarter.

What I like about the the 15% break-evens in the Haynesville is you know they're real, and they know they're real cuz when we talk about '26, we've reduced our maintenance capital. That absolutely is is a proof positive that the team is working and it's working well.

'26, we'll continue to do our buy our our buy-down of debt. We'll also consider shareholder returns, as we always have.

Big news, of course, is the change that we made last week. That is really a reflection of the changing natural gas business.

We believe the world has fundamentally changed in natural gas. We're seeing a tremendous growth in demand.

We're seeing 35% to 40% in the next 5 years. This move is absolutely trying to address dress that reality.

Today, our marketing business, while we think about it, is in sort of three buckets. The first bucket that we consider is how do we get our gas to premium markets?

This has been a goal for the company from the very beginning last year. When we started in Chesapeake in 2021, we had our goal of moving these numbers.

It was at the time we're almost all in-basin sales. Today, we're close to 50%.

We feel good progress has been made. The second leg of marketing is we need to take care of volatility.

We live in a very volatile gas market. We know that.

By hedging, by doing storage transactions, this helps us capture help us in the low-price environments, which we always are concerned about. It's about discipline.

Hedging is about that. Our third, which we have not made as much progress and we're disappointed in and we expect to do better, is we need to capture and facilitate new demand.

We need to get our fair share of this market. Our team has done some good stuff.

We saw the LCM deal this year, but we have not done enough. We're sort of taking that challenge, and that is really some of the fundamental reasons why we're moving to Houston.

In order to participate in that market, you can see you have to sort of compete on our trading side of our business, or our marketing side. We're not the only ones who are saying this.

You see wellhead to water. You see wellhead to Watts.

We have to think beyond the wellbore. We have to say it's not good enough anymore to just drill great wells, we have to compete on the marketing side of our business.

What is the size of the prize? Been asked many times about that.

I think the size of the prize we're chasing is 20 cents. We're looking for improved realizations across our business.

We think that will make us competitive and a better energy company. These changes, as all changes, you have you have some things that are unfortunate.

Obviously, our senior leadership has changed. That does not change our mission.

It does not change our strategy. What you're seeing is a change in tactics and focus.

That we have a new business, we have to spend time on that business. What's not changing?

Our operations have been great. Look at the results.

We're not changing our leadership. We're not changing even our location.

We plan to stay in Oklahoma City with our ops team. Josh is still leading that group, and we don't expect to have changes there because frankly, it works.

We don't do things that that don't work. When you think about us, our our sort of our sort of mantra is: our foundation is in place, our strategy is clear, opportunity set is huge.

It is time for us to act. We're talking about urgency, we're talking about competitiveness, and so, all we need to do to be successful is execute.

With that, we'd like to turn it over to questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or comment at this time, please press *11 on your telephone keypad. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, simply press *11 again.

Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question or comment comes from the line of Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

Your line is open.

Neil Mehta

Good morning, Mike. Morning, team, and thanks for taking the time.

Mike, appreciate some of the color that you provided around management change. Maybe you can talk about the characteristics you and the board are looking for in that next CEO and any thoughts on timing, how long you think the search could take?

Mike Wichterich

Sure. Thank you for the question.

We're looking for a leader who has a bigger view of energy. It'll be an energy person, but someone who's going to continue our mission, look beyond the wellhead.

That is someone who thinks about the whole value chain, and including we need to get closer to customers not just here in the US, we need to get closer customers in Europe. It's someone who's sort of a bigger view of the energy industry at a whole.

How long does it take? We've done this search before for CEO.

It took about 6 months. This is a bigger, more complicated company.

I wouldn't be surprised if it went to 9 months, but call it 6 is sort of the goal. I will tell you, I'm committed to find the right person, and I will be here until that occurs.

Neil Mehta

That's really helpful. Then, as you talk about marketing, can you talk about the quantification of the uplift in cash flow or realizations that you think could happen if you optimize the commercial side of the business?

One case study could be Fern. Did you guys capture all the upside that you think you could have in that event, and if you had a more robust marketing effort, do you feel like you would have done even better?

Mike Wichterich

I think all energy companies and gas companies are moving towards more marketing because we can no longer give away margin to the guys in between us, the marketers. Number one, our first goal is premium markets.

We're starting to see a little bit of results this year on that. I expect that to be the near-term catalyst for us to increase our realizations across our portfolio.

That will move into 2027. I think volatility, especially when prices are low, storage is phenomenal.

Volatility is high, storage will be very helpful. Moving our gas to premium markets, whether it be Gillis or to Perryville, has been very helpful.

Those are sort of the near-term sort of ways to help our margins right away, to go get that 20 cents. A little bit longer, let's call it 3 to 5 years, we have to do more LCM deals.

To facilitate demand, generally, that has to do with building something, building a plant, building a facility of some sort. They take a little bit longer, but that is really the future.

We're really fighting for years 3 to 5. Again, goal is 20 cents.

20 cents improved realization is obviously very material to our margin, and we think we can make it there.

Neil Mehta

It's about $500 million in EBITDA, right?

Mike Wichterich

That's what we're talking about.

Josh Viets

Yeah. Neil, hey, you asked about Winter Storm Fern.

I think your question around what are you going to be able to do with the integration of the operations that we have with the marketing and commercial business, and all those things have to work in tandem. I think just talk about that entire value chain and starting with the operations, those operations have to hold up when you have these types of weather events.

Of course, it really is going to depend on the type of weather that we incur. The Northeast, really across our entire Appalachian region, the operations held up incredibly well and perform incredibly strong through the weather events.

In fact, the other thing I just point out in Northeast Pennsylvania, we were actually peaking out on our production levels as we headed into January. Again, just thinking about the flexibility of our business there.

In the Haynesville, that was a little bit different of a challenge. We had over an inch of ice accumulate on roads and that simply was detrimental to the power infrastructure as well as our ability to manage water across the asset.

Definitely a little bit of a different situation there that had some impact on our volumes across that time period. We absolutely know that in order for us to realize these aspirations, the entire value chain has to work, and that includes our operations, it has to include our marketing and commercial business, and then it also implies that we have to gain additional access to infrastructure further down the value chain.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Matthew Portillo from TPH.

Mr. Portillo, your line is open.

Matthew Portillo

Good morning, all. Maybe just to follow up on the marketing front.

It feels like, and I know you lay it out in your slide deck, but it feels like there's been a pretty significant shift in a constructive way in the supply-demand balances for natural gas on the Gulf Coast. I was curious if you might be able to discuss at a high level how you think the demand dynamics have been changing and if there's any shift in your conversations for contract tenor, but also pricing dynamics for offtake agreements, whether it be LNG players, utilities, or industrial consumers around Louisiana and Texas?

Mike Wichterich

I'll start, and let Dan finish. Really high level, we're definitely seeing the Gulf Coast be very active.

It's unique area. Of course, it's 50% of our production where it is.

We're seeing gas-on-gas demand. We're seeing that end-use customers want to be closer to wellhead.

We think that is going to go into our favor, and you can see others talking about this as well. We're not the only ones.

In the Northeast, of course, that's a power market, and it's a little different. It's actually having some, of course, with Virginia and the data centers built, it's a little bit different market.

Generally think that there's more diversity in the Gulf Coast. Dan, you should add additional color.

Dan Turco

Thanks, Matt. I think you nailed it.

The Gulf Coast is a place where we're seeing growing demand. If you look at the entire United States, we're seeing about 25 billion cubic feet a day of gas demand coming online.

Half of that is coming from the LNG, and that sits right in our backyard, right where our Haynesville asset is and right where our pipeline capacity gets down to Gillis. Somebody asked me the other day, "How do I feel about this market?"

and I said, "I've been around this market for 25 years, and the first time, we're getting tons of inbounds, people looking for that security of supply that you referenced." The team's been out there working all these deals, trying to do something that matters.

As Mike pointed out, this opportunity set is huge, and we're accelerating what we're trying to do here and grow and further expand down the value chain. Where we're set up, our Haynesville asset, Gillis, and that demand is quite unique for us.

Not only at the Louisiana side of the border, the Texas side of the border is growing as well. There's a unique aspect going on between Texas and Louisiana just with the amount of demand growth.

People talk about the Permian a lot. The Permian will grow into these markets, but of course, Texas is growing substantially, as well as Louisiana, and the ability to get from interstate pipelines across the border to meet that demand is also a little bit challenged.

We're set up quite well here to go and capture all this demand.

Matthew Portillo

Great. Then maybe a question for Josh.

One thing we've noticed on the macro side is the industry has continued to accelerate kind of the rig count in the Haynesville, but more of those rigs are making their way to East Texas, and then in the core of the basin, some of your peers are starting to face degradation on their well results. I guess Josh, as we look at your well data and then also I guess the slide you laid out on page 12, just curious how you think about Expand's productivity trends in the Haynesville over the next few years and how that might contrast to the industry as a whole?

Josh Viets

Thanks for the question, Matt. The reality is the inventory that we carry in the Haynesville is just simply unmatched, both in terms of depth and quality.

You see that show up in a number of different spots. Then you combine that with what is a 15-plus-year history of operating the basin, and so that simply leads to operational excellence.

Then at the end of the day, that's going to show up in the break-even of our inventory, where just in the 1 year alone, we've been able to add 5 years of inventory below $3.50. Yes, though we've seen roughly 10 rigs added to the Haynesville, those 10 rigs that are being added by no means can make any comparison to a rig that we might choose to add.

In fact, if you reference slide 30, we've characterized there what over a 2-year time period a production of our rigs able to generate relative to an average rig in the industry. The things that we'll continue to be focused on, of course, is operational excellence and continuing to manage the way at which we drill our wells.

That's primarily around how we manage temperature. Then the other differentiator for us is, of course, how we source sand.

Not only does that is lowering the input costs, but it's simply allowing us to optimize a better economic outcome by increasing proppant intensity and driving our well productivity higher. That's not about IPs, I'll just note.

That's really about changing the decline parameters of the well, which again translates to value at the end of the day.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research.

Mr. Leggate, your line is open.

Oh,

Doug Leggate

you had me on pause there for a minute. Thanks so much.

Good morning, guys. Mike, I wonder if I could ask two quick things to the extent you're able to answer them.

There's a lot of focus, obviously, on your break-even. When you and I have chatted, it's almost like you've kind of laser-focused on how you get this break-even down.

Some of your peers have obviously taken different routes on this, whether it be greater liquids mix, introducing midstream, deleveraging. I'm wondering to the extent you can share your vision for how Expand gets that break-even down, given the proportion of dry gas you have, that's my first one.

My second one is you've called the 2029 bonds, and big nut, obviously. I'm wondering if this is defining a different priority for the use of cash in terms of balance sheet over buybacks, and I'll leave it there.

Thank you.

Mike Wichterich

Yeah. Great.

Thanks, Doug. A couple of things.

I do think we focus a lot of break-evens, but we also need to focus on our total financial picture, including earnings per share. Obviously, we're making a big dent in our debt.

We think that actually helps. That's one way to do it.

We're also thinking about marketing. It's the top line.

We have to have the margin get better. I think we're trying to squeeze this number anyway.

We're fighting for pennies. We know we're fighting for pennies as an industry.

You sort of have to use the whole tool chest to get that done. Between debt reductions, between I think you've noticed the last couple years, we've made pretty good synergy adjustments in like G&A and not just our business.

We hope marketing will be the next leg of that. As far as paying down debt versus buyback shares, of course, we like to do both.

We've done both this year. We continue to do both.

We're in a very volatile commodity business, and with that, having a non-negotiable of a fantastic balance sheet comes first. That's why you're seeing our priority to pay down debt.

I think we'll lean into that. We'd like to be a little bit less prescriptive on our buybacks.

I think it's a terrible policy to tell the market exactly when we're buying back shares and when we're not. We want to be smart about it.

First deal is balance sheet first. That's why you'll see us serious focused on that.

I think that's also, again, great for EPS, which is important.

Doug Leggate

Mike, well I wonder if I could just add a quick follow-up there. I wonder, does M&A come into the picture here in terms of resetting that break-even?

Again, midstream and liquids is kind of what I'm driving at here. What would you say to that?

Mike Wichterich

I'd say we're very actively look at every potential party and the basins that we operate, and some of those have liquids. The more important part of that question is you have to have discipline.

I'd say this year, we looked a lot of transactions, and we passed on a lot because it starts with our non-negotiables. Our non-negotiables is balance sheet, it's accretion, and sometimes, this year, gas price was pretty high, and so those deals weren't that attractive.

If you're asking about liquids and helping margin, is that a possible answer? It is.

It is.

Doug Leggate

Great. Appreciate the comments.

Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Kevin MacCurdy from Pickering Energy Partners.

Mr. MacCurdy, your line is now open.

Mr. MacCurdy, you may need to unmute your phone.

Kevin MacCurdy

Sorry about that. Good morning, and thank you for taking my question.

I wanted to ask about your maintenance CapEx, and specifically slide six. It looks like there are some improvements to your maintenance capital compared to last quarter, although the guidance didn't change, if I'm reading that correctly.

I also noticed that there are three production levels bolded on the left-hand side there, 7.25 Bcf to 7.75, a range a little bit wider than your 2026 guidance. Is there anything to read into that as well?

Josh Viets

Kevin. I think the first thing is just to re-emphasize the improvement that we've seen in our maintenance CapEx.

If you were to go back to a year ago and look at this slide, it would have been $225 million higher to deliver the 7.5 Bcf a day. First, I think just acknowledging that the business has gotten stronger, and that's reflected here.

You will see that our program does have the ability to still be incredibly efficient from a free cash flow generation standpoint up to 7.75 Bcf a day. One of the things that I think it's incredibly important to recall and really what is underwriting this slide is a view on mid-cycle price.

That view on mid-cycle price remains unchanged from $3.50 to $4. 50 cents for us is a pretty big range.

One of the things we really want to continue to be focused on is maintaining a level of flexibility in the business, and therefore how much we produce in any given month or across a given year based upon how we see those prices trend. In certain instances, that might cause us to push volumes a little bit higher, but as we see the market maybe turn a little bit bearish, whether that's shorter term or even longer term, we want to have the ability to flex those volumes.

Kevin MacCurdy

Thank you for that. For my second question, your budget outlines $75 million for the Western Haynesville this year.

Can you talk a little bit about how that program will progress, when you'll be drilling, and what you're looking for in results?

Josh Viets

Kevin, this is Josh again. On that, we have roughly two and a half wells scheduled.

There's a little bit of carry-in and carry-out capital that take place across the year. We've just finished drilling the first well.

That was a horizontal well. Those operations went incredibly well.

In fact, when we benchmark our performance, both in terms of days and cost, we're at the very low end of what we've seen from some of the bigger competitors in the Western Haynesville. Feel really good about that.

That well's being completed as we speak, and we expect first production, sometime in late Q1, early Q2. Really there, we're obviously going to be interested in longer-term decline parameters there.

We know the reservoir is there. We know it's highly saturated with overpressured gas, but understanding those decline characteristics will be really important.

For the rest of the year, we have, again, roughly two additional wells that we plan to drill, and those are really going to be centered around helping us appraise kind of the full extent of the acreage position that we put together there.

Kevin MacCurdy

Thanks, Josh.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets.

Mr. Hanold, your line is open.

Scott Hanold

Thanks. I'd like to maybe key off something, Mike, you'd said in your overview, and one of the things you kind of mentioned is that just can't give away margin to the middleman.

As you step back and think about that, would that also contemplate looking at more of an integrated operations, such as going out and actually owning midstream to be more integrated? Does that help the effort?

Is that a possible avenue you'd be willing to look at?

Mike Wichterich

I think generally speaking, we're focused more on partnerships with midstream companies. We are looking at stuff like Momentum that we've done in the past.

LCM deal has a Momentum component on it. I imagine this is more partnerships.

We have to get our gas to premium markets. It's unrealistic to think we're not going to have to deal with some sort of transportation to get there.

We'd like to be part of that equation. I think it's that more than just going out and buying gathering systems.

I'm not sure that would be really helpful for us. We have to get to end-use customers.

Yes, integrated, but maybe think about that in a partnership way.

Scott Hanold

Understood. Appreciate the context.

Then if I could ask, on cash taxes, surprised that the minimal amount of cash taxes that you're looking at this year. Can you give us a sense of what drove that?

Is that part of the OBBA from last year? Do you have any kind of visibility over the next couple years where that cash tax rate might go?

Brittany Raiford

Scott, this is Brittany. You're absolutely right.

It is the benefit of the OBBB, and we saw that last year and seeing the benefit of it this year. We do expect to be a full cash taxpayer probably in the back part of the decade, and so I'd expect us to stair-step our cash tax increase throughout the next couple of years to be a full cash taxpayer probably later closer to 2030.

Scott Hanold

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Zach Parham from J.P.

Morgan. Mr.

Parham, your line is open.

Zach Parham

Wanted to follow up on Matt's question earlier. In the slide deck, you highlighted an increase in your first-year cums that you expect from the Haynesville in 2026.

Can you talk about that a little bit, what drove that expected increase, and if you see that as sustainable going forward?

Josh Viets

Good morning, Zach. Is it sustainable?

Absolutely. Again, kind of tie back to my earlier comments, we've really been able to reset the economics of the Haynesville with improvements in drilling efficiency, self-sourcing our own sand, and we've been able to drive this higher productivity largely through enhancing the completion designs.

On the call during the third quarter, I talked about, at the merger onset, we came together, we put together what we've referred to as our Gen 1 completion design. We're already now progressing to what's considered our Gen 3 completion design and seeing really improved results from that.

We expect that this type of trend that you're seeing continues forward. Again, I just kind of bring it back to, we have an unmatched inventory quality and depth in the Haynesville, and that, combined with our history in the basin, there's a good reason why we're delivering these outsized results relative to peers.

Zach Parham

Thanks, Josh. Then my follow-up just on D&C costs in the Haynesville.

Y'all have done a lot to bring down costs over the last several years. You've got a slight reduction in your numbers for 2026, but can you talk about your ability to potentially drive that number even lower going forward?

Josh Viets

Yeah. My expectations are pretty high for the organization and our ability to do that.

We continue to find opportunities to improve tool reliability. The bigger issues you fight in the Haynesville is temperature.

We continue to partner with some of our service providers to increase tool reliability. In addition, we're seeing some pretty significant advancements with artificial intelligence to help us refine, in a more optimal way, our well designs, but more importantly, a faster, real-time optimization of drilling parameters.

We think those two items there are really going to allow us to unlock further savings from a D&C standpoint.

Zach Parham

Thanks, Josh.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Josh Silverstein from UBS.

Mr. Silverstein, your line is now open.

Josh Silverstein

Yep. Hey, good morning, guys.

Mike, you talked about the challenge to get Expand's volumes to the demand growth areas. Can you just talk about what the biggest challenges are in doing so?

Is it getting the customers to actually just agree to supply? Is it price, concerns over inventory duration?

I'm just curious on that.

Mike Wichterich

Yeah. There's two challenges for our team, and one is on us, and one is just the facts of the world.

The first is our team needs to be more aggressive to review more transactions or potential transactions. We'll build more generators, we'll add to the team to be in the room more often.

A big part of moving to Houston is to be in that room, and so we have to get out of our own way. The other side is just real, which is you need to get your gas to them physically.

You're always thinking about transportation, how to get it there, how to service those clients. That's gives advantages to companies frankly like Williams, who have been connected to them for a generation, where we have to compete by having assured production that they do not have.

That's our competitive advantage, but we definitely have to partner. That's why we want to partner with midstream companies, because that's the biggest thing to overcome.

Josh Silverstein

Got it. Then you talked about trying to get an incremental 20 cents of realizations or margin there.

What's the cost to get there? Because you are going to have to start to build out a bit more.

Is this going to cost you more upfront to then have benefits later? Just some sort of sense of that would be great.

Thanks.

Mike Wichterich

I think that's a great question, and the first thing is we talk about our culture of discipline. We talk about rate of return.

We think of ourselves as how do you grow long-term shareholder value, and that means you have to talk about the cost as well. Generally speaking, we have the lowest dollar change will be on just trading to premium markets.

Those will turn into commitments at FT. Those are not debt necessarily, but we'll call it commitments.

Everything else, if we have to put more capital to work or risk our balance sheet, has to have a higher rate of return, has to have a bigger payout, because we're returns. Do I think we'll probably spend some money over the next 3 to 5 years?

Undoubtedly. Undoubtedly, we have to.

We will put it in context of our rate of return framework. We have to have a decent ROCE in our program, and so these things will have to have discipline around that.

Josh Silverstein

All right. Thanks for that.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of John Freeman from Raymond James.

Mr. Freeman, your line is now open.

John Freeman

Good morning. It's nice to see the the Haynesville productivity improvements continue, but it does look like the upside on production in the quarter was actually from the Appalachia region, maybe it looked like, I don't know if it's quicker turn-in lines.

Just any color you could provide on that relative to y'all's guide for the quarter?

Josh Viets

John, this is Josh. Just to address that.

It's really about our returning our production from curtailments in the fourth quarter. That was a big piece of it, coming into the end of the year, and of course most of those curtailments would have been taking place across Northeast Appalachia.

Then of course in Q1, we would have had a little bit more weather-related downtime in the Haynesville as a result of Winter Storm Fern, where we, again, saw roughly an inch of ice show up in January. That had some modest amount of impacts.

Across the full course of the year, we do anticipate to be averaging in and around 7.5 Bcf a day.

John Freeman

Got it. Thanks, Josh.

Then Mike, sorry to belabor the the marketing topic, but just it seems like, and I don't want to put words in your mouth, but you're a lot more focused, it appears, on sort of the LCM-type agreements as opposed to maybe long-term sort of LNG supply agreements. Is that a fair characterization?

Mike Wichterich

I don't think that's fair. I think we're looking at both.

We're looking at both. We're chasing margin.

We have to participate in the value chain of downstream of us. That's definitely LNG.

That's definitely manufacturing. It's power.

I think it's all. All of the above.

I just want to be more aggressive, cuz to get in the room, we have to hustle. It's a super competitive space.

We'll have to focus.

John Freeman

Thanks. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Neal Dingmann from William Blair.

Mr. Dingmann, your line is now open.

Neal Dingmann

Morning, Mike and quarter. Mike, my question, you and I talked about a little bit of this last night, was on your upstream position.

It's just looking at your share price, it certainly doesn't seem to me that you all are getting credit for the massive, what is it, 2 million-plus acres position on top of your material production. I'm just wondering, is there something you all would consider doing with, I don't know if it's either monetizing a bit of the inventory or drilling carry to somebody or something to unlock some of this value, given that sizable position, your investors are just not recognizing this?

Mike Wichterich

Thank you for saying that we're not getting full credit. We would love to get full credit.

We hope you're all are paying attention. We think we have a good business.

Generally speaking, we're not actively looking to do what you're talking about, but I would say it's always on the table. It has to be.

Just to say no for the sake of no is the wrong answer. If we see something that's attractive, and part of our portfolio that someone wants to overpay, we're a public company, that can happen in any day, and so nothing's off the table.

I don't think we're actively doing that right now.

Neal Dingmann

Makes sense. Then just secondly, looked like on the guide, you're going to run about the same rig count.

I'm just wondering if you're running, as you continue to have the efficiencies that you've recently seen, would you see yourself potentially, let's say you are running ahead of schedule by, I don't know, second, third quarter, would you pull back on the rig count and just sort of continue to bank that free cash flow, or would you continue to potentially boost production a little bit more than suggested?

Josh Viets

I think, Neal, we'd have to take a look at the fundamentals and understanding where supply-demand balances sit. We really take great pride in maintaining a high level of flexibility within our business.

We've noted today that we see this business being efficient up to that 7.75 Bcf a day number. At this point in time, we feel really good about the program that we've laid out, delivering the 7.

7.5 Bcf a day at the $2.85 billion of CapEx, and until market fundamentals start to shore up, that's the plan that we expect to execute this year.

Neal Dingmann

Said. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Charles Meade from Johnson Rice.

Mr. Meade, your line is now open.

Charles Meade

Yes, good morning, Mike, to you and the whole Expand team there. I'd like to ask a question about maybe drilling down on one piece of your marketing push, and that's on storage.

You guys in your presentation say you're at five you have 5 Bcf of storage that you own now. Can you talk about the nature of those assets and what the trajectory has been for building that position?

Is storage an area that you expect to be I guess competitive in acquiring more?

Dan Turco

Hey Charles, this is Dan. I'll take that question.

This year we added about 3.5 Bcf d Bcf of storage in the last quarter here to our 1.5 we already had. We like this storage, and we like it for many reasons, right?

You go back to our MNC strategy. One of the key components is managing volatility.

This market is highly volatile, as we've seen over the last few months, not only from time movements, but geography movements. We're actively using that storage.

We like that storage, and we've made money on it already, and we plan on churning that storage a lot more. We would like to grow that storage position, but it is a very competitive market.

The total demand of this market has grown substantially and storage has not caught up. That's why you are seeing a lot of volatility.

It's highly competitive to actually get more capacity. We continue to actively look at it, and back to our disciplined approach here, we're only going to take that capacity we feel is going to make us value and help us manage that volatility and create more margin ultimately.

Charles Meade

Got it. Thank you.

Then if I could ask a question about the West Virginia Utica. You guys also in your presentation talking about the potential to bring some Ohio Utica development concepts towards West Virginia and a lot of upside there.

Can you elaborate on what that is and how big the upside might be?

Josh Viets

Charles. We're pretty excited about our South Hillsboro program.

The reality is there's not been a lot of Utica development as you move across the Ohio River, and I can assure you the geology does not stop at the river. We think there's quite a bit of upside with that.

It's something that the teams have been working for some time. It's just really about kind of getting into the right environment which that inventory development makes sense.

There will be some infrastructure requirements to be able to process it, but it's something that we think we can take some of the learnings that we've built up of drilling deeper gas wells in the Haynesville and leverage those learnings in the Utica and expect it to be a highly profitable part of the business going forward.

Charles Meade

Thank you, Josh.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Mr.

Philip Jungwirth from BMO. Sir, your line is open.

Philip Jungwirth

Thanks. Good morning.

With the NG3 pipeline now flowing volumes, can you talk through how this will benefit Expand this year also as Golden Pass starts up? Is there a benefit to maintaining ownership in the project long term, or at least through a potential expansion?

Dan Turco

Hi Philip, this is Dan. I'll talk about the market dynamics.

NG3 came on October last year, and that's providing us just again more market optionality, and that's bringing our gas to Gillis, which over time is going to be a pretty premium market. At the moment, we're getting about even on where we are with the capacity payments we get and the uplift we're getting.

Over time, back to the structural demand of this market, LNG is growing significantly, and we see Gillis becoming an even more premium. It's providing us two things: it's getting us to premium wholesale market, and it's providing us market optionality where we can move between Gillis and Perryville on any given day.

Philip Jungwirth

Great. Then besides the capacity going to Gillis, you also have 2 B a day going to Perryville.

It's further away from the LNG corridor, can you just talk about the advantages of selling gas to this hub, and how would the go-forward marketing strategy be tailored here versus volumes going to Gillis?

Dan Turco

Perryville's also a great market. There's a strong pull from the utilities down to the Southeast.

A lot of that's coming from the dynamics of Gillis. More gas is being redirected to Gillis for the LNG demand, and the stored gas that would come across over to Perryville is being less.

There's more demand that's going to be taken away from Perryville. There's I think 3 Bcf/d of new pipeline capacity coming online pulling further down to the Southeast.

This market is also a premium, and a lot of utilities are looking for that longer-term, reliable supply. Our advantage here is actually the ability to go to both markets, not only structurally selling to these markets, but any given day, being able to move molecules between the two markets.

If we sell down in Gillis and the Perryville market changes, we can buy back that position at Gillis, or buy gas into that position and move gas to Perryville. We've been doing this quite a lot, and quite proud of the team how they're capturing that optionality value, and we're just going to continue doing more of that.

Philip Jungwirth

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Betty Jiang from Barclays.

Ms. Jiang, your line is open.

Betty Jiang

Hello. Good morning.

Mike, I'm completely with you on the scale of the marketing opportunity and sort the need to think bolder. I'm just curious on your 20 cents uplift that's talked about, just how you came up with that target, and do you see that as a reasonably achievable number, or it's a more of a stretch goal for the organization?

Mike Wichterich

I don't think it's a stretch. Let's just start with that.

I think it's something that we'll have to be aggressive to do. It's something that we'll have to invest time and energy into.

I don't think it's a stretch. We'll definitely have to pull all three of our levers.

Lever one is premium markets; two, we need to work on our storage; and three, we're going to have to participate in the value chain beyond the wellbore, and that means LNG or industrial. I think this will be a big part of our business going forward.

I also think that will help our break-evens. That will help our downside protection because those tend to be a bit more fixed, closer to a fixed-fee concept, if you think about it.

I don't think it's a stretch. I sure hope that we make it really quick so that we all can be comfortable, and then I hope to expand that over time.

Betty Jiang

Great. No, that makes sense.

Definitely a lot of opportunity to fill in the hopper. My follow-up is on M&A.

A lot of talk already on the Gulf Coast, but we have also seen just rising deal making in Appalachia. What's your appetite for M&A in the Northeast?

Is there value to having more in-basin exposure in order to capture that growing power opportunity up north?

Mike Wichterich

Yeah. I think M&A is been something that we've done a lot of over the past 5 years.

You can see I think we've done over $15 billion in transactions, it's in our DNA to continue to look at everything. Appalachia, of course.

The liquids concept that y'all mentioned earlier, of course. The question is, can you do it disciplined?

Can you do it to protect the balance sheet? Can you do it with the non-negotiables?

This year, we weren't able to. Some of these deals went for premium prices that we didn't think were fair value.

The answer is we'll look at everything in our basins. Of course, that's our job.

M&A is a tricky market. You kind of have to think about your base business first.

We'll do that.

Betty Jiang

Great. Appreciate your comments.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Kalei Akamine from Bank of America.

Your line is open.

Kalei Akamine

Hey, good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my question.

Mike, going back to your comments about marketing, as you express the desire to be more commercial around your volumes, when you look at your portfolio, I'm curious how much gas you have committed to long-term sales agreements trying to get a sense of how much flexibility you have in the portfolio to shift gas to higher-value markets. Is it fair to think that the more flexible molecule in that portfolio is in the Haynesville?

Mike Wichterich

I think it's two things. You're right to point out, of course, that we make commitments every day, and some of those commitments would have to be rolled off.

I don't think we have a set number in my mind as exactly, and Dan may be able to answer that question. I do think the Gulf Coast is where we can build, it's where we can grow, we can add volumes to there.

To the extent we get more demand, we can increase production to fulfill that demand. I think that's always a great answer.

In Appalachia, you have less ability to do that. We're talking about growing there, but the Gulf Coast is where it is, and we feel it's our competitive advantage.

We have three basins, everyone else has one. We have a bigger market area, we have to take advantage of it, but the ability to grow and, frankly, shrink the Haynesville gives us a lot of marketing opportunities.

Dan Turco

I would just add that we do stage those commitments. On page 19, we laid out a couple commitments we just made, right?

Over a 5-year time, we have commitments that go out 15 years, but over a 5-year timeframe is really where looking at doing a lot of our sales. We just added a couple of sales to premium markets here.

These aren't the big deals that we're going to announce, but these are the singles and doubles that we're doing every day, adding more sales to end users and just getting that premium uplift. A sale becomes an asset as well.

As I pointed out in the last point here is, you make a sale and markets move, you can still fulfill that sale with other gas and move your molecule to higher-priced markets. There's a double combination here of premium market and capturing the volatility.

Kalei Akamine

I appreciate that. My second question is on the LNG exposure.

Pre-Southwestern, the desire was for exposure to be somewhere between 15% and 20%. Post-merger, that commentary shifted a bit.

What does desired exposure look like today? Is it a quarter of gas?

Is it a third? Do you think it's necessary to physically match the molecule at the wellhead to take away on the water, or is there some synthetic way that you could go about it?

Brittany Raiford

Kalei, great question. I'll start and Dan can jump in here as well.

That commitment that Chesapeake had made prior to close, the 15% to 20% on LNG, if you think about it, really the gas markets have changed quite a bit since then. Back then, we probably weren't talking near as much about power and industrial demand growth.

Really, when you think about it and we've mentioned this several times, we're interested in reaching premium markets. We're agnostic really to exactly what those premium markets are.

We think the opportunity set is broad, and so we're going to look for the highest-return way for us to diversify our sales exposure. We're not going to be overly prescriptive on exactly how much we want to go to LNG.

Kalei Akamine

Got it. I appreciate that, Brittany.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Leo Mariani from ROTH.

Mr. Mariani, your line is open.

Leo Mariani

You guys talked about this a lot, but just on the goal of the 20-cent uplift on gas, is there kind of a rough timeframe for that? You'd kind of mentioned trying to get some deals kind of over 3 to 5 years, just trying to get a sense if that's kind of a 5-year goal.

Any other color on that?

Mike Wichterich

I would say, yes, it's 3 to 5, and I'm giving 5 to give us some room. I certainly hope to make that in 3, 3 and 1/2, and so we want to be aggressive here.

Leo Mariani

Okay. Then just following up on the buyback, you guys kind of spoke about this.

I don't want to put words in your mouth, but it sounds as if it's really going to be times of dislocation in the stock, and the priority is really going to be just to make this balance sheet even more rock-solid here.

Mike Wichterich

Agreed. We totally agree with your statement right there.

Leo Mariani

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of John Annis from Texas Capital.

Mr. Annis, your line is open.

John Annis

Good morning, all, and thanks for taking my questions. For my first one, you noted around 20% of the 2025 TILs exceeded 1 Bcf per 1,000 foot, and you expect that to rise above 30% in 2026.

I wanted to get a sense of what's different about those top-performing wells. Is it geology, lateral placement, completion intensity, or some combination?

Then is there a ceiling on how high that percentage can go, given your acreage mix?

Josh Viets

It's definitely a mix, John. Completion design is really going to be the biggest driver for us moving forward, but clearly where you drill is going to matter as well.

Typically, we see the best-performing wells in the southern part of our acreage position within the NRZ, and so you are going to be limited in the number of wells you can drill in any one gathering system. You'll just simply hit capacity constraints.

Yes, to answer your question, there would be some constraints, but we just see continued upside across the entire acreage position. We've had a lot of success this year drilling 3-mile laterals.

We're going to continue to get better and see bigger portion of that showing up going forward, and as I mentioned earlier in the call, I don't think we've reached what we really deemed to be optimal from a completion design standpoint. Again, we continue to reset those economics as a result of having access to a cheaper sand source.

John Annis

Makes sense. For my follow-up, you mentioned supplying microgrid solutions in Appalachia with flexible volume contracts.

How large is this opportunity today, and how would you compare the attractiveness of these smaller-volume deals with some of the larger supply commitments announced in the basin?

Dan Turco

Hey John, thanks for the question. We went live with this microgrid solution.

It's relatively small to be fair, but we're excited about these because a bunch of these small deals adds up, and this actually commands quite a premium by having a reservation fee behind our gathering system where this microgrid solution can pull volume for us and capturing a higher price. We're getting a dual effect here of a reservation fee and a higher price.

It's small, but these singles are going to add up over time, and we're going to do a lot more of these types of deals.

John Annis

Thanks, guys.

Mike Wichterich

Great. Thank everyone for their questions today.

We want you to ask tough questions. We want to be responsive to it, thank you for them.

I'd like to close with just a few sort of big-picture comments. Number one, our execution has been amazingly solid.

That is our foundation. We are not changing it.

We expect it to continue, and we continue to expect our teams to perform better in the future. Two, we have definitely thinking beyond the wellbore.

Obviously, we've talked a lot about marketing today. That is actually not a strategy change.

We had that strategy. What we're talking about changing today is urgency, attention, discipline.

We want to be more aggressive, but always know that we are rate of return, and build shareholder value, you have to have that. Third, the opportunity is huge.

We see it. We finally feel like gas has got its moment.

We want to take advantage of it. The demand is amazing.

Now it's just time for us to sort of not talk and execute, and so that is our focus here at the company, and we'll continue. With that, I think that's the end of our call.

I hope you have a good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program.

You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

Speakers, stand by.