Fluence Energy, Inc.

Fluence Energy, Inc.

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Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 6, 2026

Chris Shelton

Good morning, and welcome to Fluence Energy's third quarter earnings conference call. Joining me on this morning's call are Julian Nebreda, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Ahmed Pasha, our Chief Financial Officer.

A copy of our earnings presentation, press release, and supplementary metric sheet covering financial results, along with supporting statements and schedules, including reconciliations and disclosures regarding non-GAAP financial measures, are posted on the Investor Relations section of our website at fluenceenergy.com. During the course of this call, Fluence management may make certain forward-looking statements regarding various matters relating to our business, including, but not limited to, statements related to our future financial and operational performance, future market growth, and related opportunities, anticipated growth and business strategy, liquidity and access to capital, expectations relating to pipeline, order intake, and contracted backlog, future results of operations, and impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, projected costs, beliefs, assumptions, prospects, plans, and objectives of management, and the timing of any of the foregoing.

Such statements are based upon current expectations and certain assumptions and are therefore subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and other important factors which could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings for more information regarding these risks, uncertainties, and other important factors.

You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today. Also, please note that the company undertakes no duty to update or revise forward-looking statements for new information.

This call will also reference non-GAAP measures that we view as important in assessing the performance of our business, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross profit, and adjusted gross profit margin. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure is available in our earnings materials on the Investor Relations website.

Following our prepared remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with our team. Thank you very much.

I'll now turn the call over to Julian.

Julian Nebreda

Thank you, Chris, and welcome to everyone joining us today. Turning to slide four.

Today, I will provide an update on the progress we have made in driving new order intake and building our backlog, both of which were at record levels this quarter. I'll discuss our growing business, which includes robust demand from our core customers combined with a rapid expansion of data center customers, from which we received our first orders and contract awards totaling $850 million.

We believe that the momentum of the past few months will continue in the quarters to come, driven by our differentiated product offering and our team's longstanding ability to meet customer needs. Following my remarks, Ahmed will review our financial results for the quarter and our outlook for the remainder of the year.

Starting with key highlights for the third fiscal quarter. First, we signed $1.44 billion of orders during the quarter, which is nearly triple the $509 million we signed in the same period last year.

Second, included in our record order intake was our first deal with a data center developer worth $300 million. During July, we were awarded an additional $550 million of business across multiple data center sites by one of the hyperscalers that we discussed last quarter.

Third, we ended the quarter with a record backlog of $6.4 billion, representing 14% growth over the second quarter and more than 30% growth since the third quarter of last year. Fourth, we ended the quarter with total liquidity of approximately $860 million, in line with our expectations.

Fifth, Ahmed will discuss our third quarter financial results shortly, but revenues were affected by delays in expected project deliveries driven by the ramp-up of two new contracted manufacturing facilities. Accordingly, we are lowering our guidance midpoints for 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA to $3 billion and negative $10 million, respectively.

We do not take this reduction lightly and have instituted changes in an effort to ensure we deliver on our growing market demand. I will detail our plans further in a moment.

Please turn to slide five for more detail on our order intake. With $2.7 billion now signed through the third quarter of this year, our orders are 80% higher than the amount from last year, with utilities and IPPs making up approximately 90% of this total.

We expect fourth quarter orders will be another record level for the company, and we see reasons for this strong momentum to continue in future quarters, given our current demand and competitive position. Please turn to slide six as I detail our progress with data center customers.

Our announcements on last quarter's call that we had signed two master supply agreements with hyperscalers raised our profile with other potential data center customers. Overall, our data center pipeline has increased to 16 gigawatt hours, representing a more than 35% increase compared to the second quarter.

Our pipeline now includes a mix of projects from both hyperscalers and data center developers. During the quarter, we signed a $300 million order for a behind-the-meter project with a developer.

We were introduced to these customers by one of the hyperscalers we have been working with. The sales cycle for this customer was much faster than our traditional market segment, converting from lead to order in three months.

We continue to see the developer segment center on speed-to-power solutions, and we are pleased to be positioned to meet their needs. Hyperscaler customers continue to focus on quality of power solutions, where we also stand out in terms of our ability to deliver.

We were pleased to receive approximately $550 million of awards under one of our MSAs in July. These are not yet purchase orders, and we expect these will add to our total of signed orders in the coming months.

These data center customers have a pipeline of projects that we continue to believe we are well positioned to bid on, and we look forward to expanding our business with them in the near future. Please turn to slide seven as I discuss backlog and pipeline growth.

Our backlog has benefited from record orders in two of the past four quarters and sets a strong base for revenue growth in fiscal '27. As of June 30th, approximately $2.2 billion of our $6.4 billion backlog is expected to convert to revenues in fiscal '27.

This compares to the $1.5 billion of fiscal year 2026 revenue coverage we had as of June 30th of 2025. Turning to our pipeline, we exited the quarter at $33.1 billion, which is an increase of $1.6 billion compared to last quarter.

This indicates $3 billion of new opportunities after considering our conversion of pipeline into orders during the quarter. We continue to see a growing percentage of our pipeline coming from the US market compared to previous years, mostly attributed to the data center segment.

Please turn to slide eight for these details on the expansion of our supply chain. We have been expanding our supply chain capacity to meet the strong demand for our products, as reflected in the growth of our backlog.

New, larger contracted manufacturing facilities globally are expected to increase our capacity and also deliver the quality our customers expect. A major driver of our revised revenue expectations for this year is attributable to ramping up production at two of these new factories.

In the US, we will be the offtaker of a new, fully automated facility located in Houston with expected capacity of 15 gigawatt hours per year. Completion of this new facility has been delayed by a few months due to delays in construction and issues relating to the automation equipment.

Limited production commenced this quarter, and our manufacturer is taking steps to address outstanding issues. We expect the facility to reach full production levels during our fiscal first quarter of '27.

I will highlight this contract manufacturer has been our main enclosure supplier from Vietnam, which is a very similar facility to this new one in Houston. We believe their knowledge and experience will be helpful as this factory moves towards full production.

Our new international facilities are now fully ramped, and our product is being shipped to customers on a delayed timeline because initial production did not meet our quality expectations. Corrections were implemented, and we have resumed shipping high-quality products to projects all around the world.

Given the importance of timely, consistent, and high-quality production to our business, we recently made organizational changes to ensure more direct oversight of and accountability for our production capability. Today, we announce that Roman Luzin will assume leadership of our supply chain and Peter Williams will concentrate on product, with both leaders reporting directly to me.

Roman currently serves as our Chief Enterprise Operations Officer and brings more than 20 years of global leadership experience at Siemens, where he held senior operational and business leadership roles with responsibility for supply chain, manufacturing, and business transformation. Roman will lead a set of managers with deep experience and skill sets in supply chain and manufacturing that have joined our company over the past few months.

I am confident that this new management team will strengthen our supply chain and manufacturing to meet the growing demand for our products. When combined with our supply of domestic cells, we expect the Houston facility will expand our annual capacity for domestic content significantly compared to our current footprint.

Once it is fully ramped and added to our current supply chain, we expect to have capacity to meet our current backlog of projects and confidence to meet the growth of the US market. Please turn to slide nine for details on how we are differentiating in the current market.

We have been successful in growing our backlog and penetrating the new and important data center customer segment in a very short period of time. Fluence has new and repeat customers who appreciate our advanced product designs, leading energy density, and focus on total cost of ownership.

In addition to these factors, our proprietary software stack, including an operating system, is designed to enable our customers to optimize their solution over its long-term life and allow for remote monitoring. These features can increase availability and extend the life of our solution for customers in all use cases.

Specifically for data center customers, the ability of our operating system to efficiently help smooth loads and handle periods of low voltage have contributed to new awards and orders. SmartStack has been gaining favor in terms of orders this year, representing 75% of our orders year to date.

One of the attractive features of SmartStack is that we designed it as a product platform with the ability to upgrade over time. During the quarter, we announced the first evolution with SmartStack 10, which increases density of each unit from 7.5 megawatt hours to 10 megawatt hours.

The ability to upgrade our SmartStack offering over time with speed and efficiency allows us to quickly adapt to evolving customer needs, which is valuable for both Fluence and our customers. To conclude, we believe we have the right product and team to win in this rapidly growing market.

With our first data center awards adding to our record backlog and a growing global supply chain sized to meet future growth, we are committed to delivering for customers and creating long-term value for shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ahmed to discuss our financial results and outlook for the rest of the year.

Ahmed Pasha

Good morning, everyone. While our results this quarter were disappointing, the challenges we experienced were primarily related to construction and production start-up delays at new manufacturing capacity and scaling of our new products.

We have taken actions to address issues and improve execution and are now tracking to our revised production plan. Importantly, these investments strengthen our supply chain globally and position us to support our growing backlog.

As these new facilities move beyond the initial ramp-up phase, we believe Fluence will be better positioned to deliver profitable growth and create shareholder value. Starting with slide 11.

We generated Q3 2026 revenue of $650 million, up 8% year over year. This was approximately $90 million below the expectations we discussed on our last quarterly call.

This shortfall was primarily driven by production delays at two new contract manufacturing facilities that are currently ramping. Production from the enclosure manufacturing facility in Houston was pushed by a quarter due to construction and automation delays.

The facility has begun limited production and is expected to achieve full production levels in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. The other issue occurred at one of our two new facilities in China, where initial production of components of SmartStack did not meet stringent standards and required rework.

The facility is now producing consistently to our standards and has achieved full production in the fourth quarter. While we expect to realize the revenues associated with the Q3 projects that were delayed, the slower ramp-up compresses the timeline for production in the fourth quarter, pushing a portion of previously planned 2026 deliveries into fiscal 2027.

Our Q3 adjusted gross profit reflects the lost margin from revenue shortfall and an approximately $15 million costs associated with new products rollout and production delays. In addition, we recorded $15 million loss on a plant battery supply agreement, most of which was associated with a single project.

Despite the upfront cost, this arrangement secures the long-term supply and attractive pricing, strengthening our ability to support growing demand and price future orders with greater confidence. Turning to slide 12 for our fiscal 2026 guidance.

We have revised our outlook to reflect our updated expectation for production through the end of this fiscal year. More specifically, we expect revenue in the range of $2.9 to $3.1 billion, with a midpoint of $3 billion.

The approximately $400 million reduction versus the prior midpoint is largely the result of manufacturing ramp-up delays that pushed revenue recognition into 2027. In terms of EBITDA, we now expect adjusted EBITDA negative $30 million to positive $10 million, with midpoint of negative $10 million, compared to our prior midpoint guidance of $50 million.

While there are several puts and takes relative to our prior guidance, the $60 million reduction is largely explained by two items: about $44 million of lost margin from shift of approximately $400 million of revenue into 2027, and $15 million related to the proposed long-term battery supply agreement discussed earlier. We are maintaining our expectation for annual recurring revenue of approximately $180 million by the end of fiscal 2026.

Turning to slide 13 for an update on our liquidity position. We ended the third quarter with total liquidity of approximately $863 million, which includes approximately $365 million in total cash.

Consistent with what we said on the last call, we expect total liquidity will return to $900 million level by fiscal year-end, driven by execution on our backlog of projects included in the guidance. Bottom line, our liquidity position continues to support our near-term working capital needs, particularly heading into our highest revenue quarter.

Regarding liquidity needs for 2027, we are comfortable that our existing liquidity has us well positioned for success. That said, as Julian noted, our expected order intake is reaching new highs, and to support that growth may require an additional $300 to $500 million of working capital over the coming year.

We will remain disciplined and pursue financing only where there is a clear line of sight to profitable growth and shareholder value creation. In summary, while we have more work to do, demand remains strong, our backlog continues to grow, and we are taking actions needed to improve our execution and support long-term profitable growth.

With that, I will turn the call back to Julian.

Julian Nebreda

Thanks, Ahmed. Let me close with a few key takeaways.

First, order momentum continues. Our third quarter order intake, our record of $6.4 billion backlog, and the initial order with a data center developer all evidence our successful product strategy and sales effort.

We currently expect orders to reach a record level again during the fourth quarter of this year. Second, additional production capacity.

We're adding new contract manufacturing capacity in the US and abroad, and have realigned our organization with new leadership to strengthen execution. Third, product offering.

The integration of SmartStack's density, safety, and reliability metrics with our software and controls capabilities allowing for fast response, load smoothing, and remote operation puts us in a dominant position to meet the growing demand of the diverse customer segments we serve. In conclusion, we are positioning our company to continue profitable growth and to deliver value to our customers and shareholders.

Operator

A brief moment be needed to delay today's call as we have lost our speaker. We'll be back in just one moment.

All participants, please continue to stand by. Your meeting will begin momentarily.

Once again, please continue to stand by. All participants, please continue to stand by.

Your meeting will begin momentarily. Once again, please continue to stand by, and we thank you for your patience.

It is now our question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad.

Your first question comes from the line of George Gianarikas from Canaccord Genuity. Your line is live.

George Gianarikas

Hey, everyone. Nice to have you back.

Hey.

Julian Nebreda

Good morning, George. Before you answer, I really want to apologize for the technical mishap we have this morning, which we'll figure out what it is, but we've been waiting on hold for the same time you were waiting, and we were not have been connected.

Sorry for that, everybody. We really appreciate and value your time, and we know it was a little bit of a waste of time.

Hey, great. Hey, George, good morning.

George Gianarikas

Good morning. All good.

Maybe first if you could provide some additional granularity around the production delays and just sort of go into a little bit of detail what's happening at the facility. Thank you.

Julian Nebreda

Great. We had we were as as we are scaling up the company, we are in in, increasing our production capacity.

As part of that, we brought we brought in two new two new manufacturing groups: one to serve the international market and one to serve the US market. On the international market, we're working with reputable, well-known, and, seasoned contract manufacturers.

One of these manufacturers, as they were they are producing our SmartStack for the international market. One of those manufacturers is producing our pods, the ones that, the things that go on top of the skids that we have.

The initial production had some quality were not was not meeting our our, our stringent testing, and and we had to significantly delay production to ensure that we got their production in line with our quality. That meant, significant, delays that that having significant.

That since then we have fully, fully resolved, and now we are producing. They're working full-time with a fully ramp-up.

This They're doing a great job, but we won't be able to recuperate the full amount of the volumes we had we had we lost during the quarter during the year. That's that that case.

We feel confident and we're we're still we're seeing it today that they can meet our quality, our volumes going forward, and and it will really put us in a good position to serve the international market with a competitive with a competitive product. The US is slightly different.

In the US, we're putting a fully facility with our contract manufacturer that works out of Vietnam. The same one is putting a fully automated facilities and improved version of the one we have in Vietnam, fully automated.

A lot more automated because of the US labor costs, of course, but, fully automated system. They experience construction delays, where the construction delays were then we got delays in connecting to the utility.

Out of the, we've been running the plant with generators, and that meant that we had to manage that with who could not do all the works in parallel. That meant that some of the automation took longer than.

It's the same thing as these delays got stuck one and another. There was a moment that it was clear that we would not meet we were not going to be able to recuperate the volumes for 2026, and that we had to put volumes to 20 to '27.

That facility is ramping up, is producing today. It will connect to the to the grid in the next couple of weeks.

The issues have been resolved, and as I said, this is a a, very much a a sister company to the one that that's in Vietnam. We're confident that the production levels we have set for ourselves for the quarter that will be met, that the issues that we have identified are fully resourced and resolved.

We're very confident on it. I would say on a more general point, this facility will be will be a will provide us a competitive advantage in the US market, that we believe is very, very important of our strategy here in the US market.

It will allow us to produce, 15 gigas of fully US-made products, fully automated integration. We are really, really happy with what we will receive.

However, we are going through this, these delays that, unfortunately, we could not fully resolve on time.

George Gianarikas

Thank you. Maybe just as a follow-up, an update on your recent commercial traction in data centers.

Specifically, how would you characterize the competitive dynamics and your win rates and deals you've participated in, and what are the key differentiating factors that lead to your wins? Thank you.

Julian Nebreda

Great great question. I think that, how we win?

We win because of the density, safety, and reliability of SmartStack as it combines with our operating systems that allows for very efficient load load load load management and, very, very good response times to the low-voltage ride-through. That's it's a it's a combination of technical, of of our operating system and our and our, and our enclosures, which are our delivery equipment, which are safe and reliable.

That's how we win. Generally has been very, very good.

It's not, and and we're very happy with the traction we had. We This is significantly better than our plans, and we are very, very confident that as that industry grows, that will be an important part.

What's interesting for us also is that we are now looking not only in the US, with most of the activities we have and the contracts we have signed today are from, but also looking at some of our markets to with some of the hyperscalers and some of the data center developers to help them in other markets, which also I think will put us our global footprint will help us on on capturing that demand more globally.

George Gianarikas

Thank you.

Julian Nebreda

Thank you, George.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs and Co. Your line is live.

Brian Lee

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Thanks for taking the questions. Wanted to ask about the battery cell cost uplift.

It sounds like it's international supplier, but can you give us a little bit more detail? Does this have anything to do with the new AESC ownership, or maybe just walk us through what's changing to impact costs here and is this also a drag into your fiscal 2028 procurement and costs as well?

Julian Nebreda

Great question. No, this is for the international market.

It's not connected to AESC. We entered into a long-term agreement that is not only a supply, but also some technical or technological alignment in how the battery will work in our modules and how we work going forward.

It's a longer-term contract that we believe will put us in a very good position for '27 and '28 and going forward. However, we had to take a charge in one project that we had that it was being supplied by the same customer that, as part of the deal, as the deal adjusted, we needed to take.

That's what it was. The MPV of the project is significantly higher than the charge we're taking.

We decided that better take the charge and move forward, no? That's what it is.

I think that, as we have continued to grow, we believe that integrating our technological roadmap with the technological roadmap of our cell suppliers is fundamental for our success long term.

Brian Lee

Yep, fair enough. Okay.

Then maybe just a question on sort of the conversion cycle, cuz if you look at slide seven, obviously, a lot of backlog growth the past couple years, a lot of pipeline growth, especially the past couple quarters. You have a lot of top-of-the-funnel momentum heading into fiscal '28.

Obviously, there's some operational challenges here that are tripping you up in terms of meeting expectations this year. How should we think about the conversion cycle on these record backlog levels and kind of the impact of these data center and hyperscaler bookings, just any sense of how quickly we should start to see these turn into P&L impact and does it differ from your historical backlog conversion cycles?

Thanks, guys.

Julian Nebreda

As you said, we're we are starting just started with data center. We we have no proof point, but we have limited proof points of what it is.

Our the proof points we have is that they work at a much faster conversion cycle. We had the deal with the developer.

We signed it from lead to to contract in less than in three months. Tremendously fast.

They will also have a very a very fast conversion cycle going forward. We're, we believe those those will help accelerate our conversion cycle.

Our our normal, the other 90% today or the other our other segments are working on the same conversion cycle of, roughly a year to 18 months that that we had had. As we recognize revenue, the revenue recognition occurs in accordance to the milestones of the program.

I would say in a period of 18 months, you recognize the full revenue. Some of it is recognized fairly quickly as we, it's recognized in milestones as we move on the execution of the project, not like it all happens at the end,

Brian Lee

no? Appreciate it.

I'll pass it on. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies. Your line is live.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Hey. Good morning, team.

Thank you guys very much. I appreciate it.

Julian Nebreda

Thank you, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Hey. A couple things real quickly, just to rehash.

Number one, you made comments about the expedited nature of the potential customers here with BTM. Can you elaborate a little bit more about how you're thinking about the potential cadence for incremental bookings from here against some of these arrangements?

Also, elaborate a little bit on the composition of customers inasmuch as, obviously, last quarter we talked about a couple in particular. BTM could be an array of different kinds of counterparties as well.

Can you talk about sort of the nature of these counterparties? I got a quick follow-up.

Julian Nebreda

Yeah. Last time, we talked mostly about hyperscalers, and now the hyperscalers have brought on into which was our plan: go to the hyperscalers because we know that's the door for the developers.

What we have seen with the developer, and that has been the change, when you talk to hyperscalers, quality of power solutions. That's what they're looking.

They spend very technical analysis, very deep understanding. When we're talking to the developers, it's mostly speed to power.

What we have seen is that the developers are probably I would say I don't know if that the, but at least what we have seen today, they're in a much of a hurry compared to the hyperscalers. We see that market a lot more active, and we see those activities, especially moving from leads to pipelines to orders more quickly.

That's what we can say as what we have seen up to today, no? The pipeline today hyperscalers have the majority, but the developers are the growing segment that is working.

It's going up.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Understood. Excellent.

Then just quickly, I see a comment here about strategic expenses just of late here. Just would love to hear that.

How are you thinking about the company strategically, if there's anything to flag there? I don't know, on the quarterly expenses, is there anything we should watch for, anticipate?

Yeah.

Julian Nebreda

We're always in the market and we're always looking at stuff. Earlier in the year, we looked at AESC as an option, and some of the costs are connected to the AESC review and all the analysis we have to do for the AESC review.

Nothing to announce.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Got it. Still looking at alternatives on that front, on procurement?

Julian Nebreda

We're spending a lot of time talking to all the battery capacity in the market and talking to them. Nothing really to talk to a lot at this stage, but that's where we're spending our time, as we see an opportunity to work more closely with the battery manufacturers in the US.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Got it. Excellent.

Thank you very much.

Julian Nebreda

Thank you, Julien. Nice talking to you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dylan Nassano from Wolfe Research. Your line is live.

Dylan Nassano

Hi, good morning.

Julian Nebreda

Hey, Dylan. How are you?

Dylan Nassano

Doing well. Just wanted to check in terms of the scope of the delays that you guys are seeing from the manufacturing facilities, to what extent, if any, are those impacting the hyperscaler MSAs and these orders that you guys are talking about here?

Julian Nebreda

No. No, not at all.

That the the These are issues contracts that we have today and that, that are that were signed a year a year ago and 1/2 ago, and they have no They're normal contracts that that not normal contracts, they're are normal are typical segments. No affection to no in no way affecting the MSA.

The MSAs of the contracts were signed with data centers.

Dylan Nassano

Got it. Thanks.

Then, maybe it would just be helpful if you could just level set us again on the number of MSAs. I believe it was two last quarter.

How many hyperscalers exactly does that include? Can you just clarify, you have the $300 million first order and then the $550 million awarded.

Are those from the same hyperscaler, or is that two different hyperscalers? Thanks.

Julian Nebreda

We have two MSAs with two hyperscalers. As we have engaged in in working with these hyperscalers, they have referred us to developers that work for them.

We are now, as I said, that our pipeline and our work, we're spending a lot of time with with with developers, as they continue to work with hyperscalers, no doubt. As they have a a pipeline that requires very quick response time.

In terms of the contract we signed, we signed the the the $300 million contract with a developer that was referred by one of the hyperscalers we have an MSA with. This was a contract of that it's a developer that's they're building a a data center for one of the hyperscalers that we will be providing our equipment to.

Then we have one of the on the one of the hyperscalers, there was a a tender. We got awarded the $550 million we saw, and that we're in the process now of, finalizing all the tech the the final technical points to be able to convert these into backlog, and which should convert into backlog in the coming months, no?

Dylan Nassano

Got it. Very helpful, thank you.

What

Julian Nebreda

we continue to work to engage with more hyperscalers. We have seen both hyperscalers were working, and we're working on several projects, both in the US and internationally, that we want to be on and we would like to serve them with our products.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Vikram Bagri from Citi. Your line is live.

Julian Nebreda

Hi, Vikram. Good morning.

Vikram Bagri

Morning, everyone. Julian, I wanted to ask about the margins first.

One of your larger peers indicated margin pressures in storage. I was wondering how you feel about the 10% to 15% margin guidance you have, backlog converting $2.2 billion next year, $2.8 after that.

Pretty long-dated backlog at this point. Is there a variance in margins when you look at these sort of backlog in the near term, medium term, and long term?

Are you witnessing the same pressures your peer talked about?

Julian Nebreda

The reality is that we are still very, very comfortably within the 10% to 15% range. Even when you looked at our results this year, if you take out some of the one-time stuff that we had during the year, we will have been around the 12% that we guided the market towards.

We're confident. We don't see in our backlog or in the new orders, they are in line with the 10% to 15%.

We do not understand the pressure that the other big supplier announced that they were coming out with this. It might be something in their cost structure that is different.

As we move forward, our big issue is scaling this company. That's the issue.

That's the kind of the pains we're going through are connected to scale. Scale drives competitiveness.

Probably in the case of our competitors, that some of them have already reached scale, they're finding some other issues that for us are not visible.

Vikram Bagri

Got it. You talked about, Julián, scale, and my next question is loosely tied to that.

We'll be talking about guidance for next fiscal year on the next call. I was wondering, what is the mechanism, how you're thinking about setting the guidance?

You have $2.2 billion of backlog for fiscal '27. Is 85% coverage the right way to think about it, or it should be connected to the capacity that's coming online, how much you can bring online, the capacity from supplier perspective, and/or the 85% coverage should be higher?

Relative to that, Julián, very encouraging to see the executive management changes to improve execution. I was wondering, what specific changes Roman and Peter will make in next 12 months?

You're dealing with contract manufacturers, you have relatively less control over their operations. What sort of changes the new team will make to ensure on-time deliveries?

Thank you.

Julian Nebreda

Let me start with your second question. I am bringing Roman to lead our manufacturing and supply chain due to his deep transformation.

He's been working on supply chain and manufacturing, but he's very experienced in transformation. One of the things you realize as you scale a company, and we move to a very different scale, is that your systems and your processes need to transform to the new scale.

That's what he's working on. We have very good suppliers.

We have great manufacturing partners. It's not a strategic change, it's an execution issue.

That's what he will concentrate on delivering. Peter has been leading the development of SmartStack, but I think that he will continue ensuring that continue developing SmartStack.

For 20 for 20 '27 and forward, the main point is continue the integration of our software and our hardware in a way that we can provide much more stringent customers than what we had historically. That's what these two groups are going to do: transformation of our manufacturing, which is not changing suppliers or anything, it's just ensuring our processes, our systems, our planning is aligned with our bigger scale, and continue on developing SmartStack as our platform and continue strengthening the connection between one and the other, very happy.

Your first question was on the

Vikram Bagri

coverage.

Julian Nebreda

I still believe that a 80% to 90% is the right one, the 85%. That's our view.

We clearly, clearly—and this is a learning—new facilities, even though we put in a plan, we put a hedge and a contingency, and what happened is that we had a hedge and we went over the hedge, and we had the contingency and we went over the contingency, and that is when the problem becomes a problem. To the extent that we have new facilities coming up, we will probably hedge them for next year.

Having said that, on closure facilities, we do not expect any major new manufacturing capacity that will support our revenue 20 in '27. I feel confident that an 80% to 90% coverage will be the right coverage in 20 '27.

We will look at it clearly as we look at this year's risk.

Vikram Bagri

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Clare from ROTH Capital. Your line is live.

Julian Nebreda

Hey, Justin. Good morning.

Hi.

Justin Clare

Good morning. Thanks for the time here.

Just wanted to ask about the guidance here. Based on the revised revenue and adjusted EBITDA guide, it looks like the fiscal Q4 gross margin could be roughly 12% around that range.

Just wondering if you could clarify what's embedded in the assumption for the gross margin in Q4. Then, are there any costs associated with the new products or the production delays from fiscal Q3 expected to extend into fiscal Q4?

Ahmed Pasha

Sure. Hi, Justin.

This is Ahmed. I think the implied gross margin we are looking at roughly 11% for Q4, based on the guidance we discussed.

It's a little less at the midpoint, if you're looking at midpoint to midpoint. Yes, we have considered additional costs that we may incur based on the outlook we see today.

There are many puts and takes, but I think net-net, we feel pretty good that after taking those additional costs for delays, we should land at the guidance where we gave based on the outlook that we see today.

Justin Clare

Got it. That's helpful.

Then, just on the the supply chain here, was wondering if you could discuss the potential impact of the FCC's restrictions on inverters here. I know you have access to US-based inverter supplier.

Wondering if you have any exposure to sourcing inverters from China, and then just curious if, compliant domestic sourcing of inverters could be a competitive advantage here as your customers kind of reassess exposure to imported inverters.

Julian Nebreda

We only work with non-Chinese inverters in the US, mostly US-made, some of them imported out of Europe. We feel that we would not be affected in any way that has been our policy since then.

We do see that those restrictions on inverters will also increase in Europe, that will happen also. In Europe, we work with a mix of Chinese and non-Chinese, but we're working towards getting ready for a fully European solution for the European market.

Our view from day one when we started, that there will be more technological restrictions on this technology as it continues to grow and plays a more important role in the grid for obvious reasons.

Justin Clare

Got it. Thank you.

Ahmed Pasha

Thanks very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Christine Cho from Barclays. Your line is now live.

Ahmed Pasha

Hey, Christine. Good morning.

Christine Cho

Good morning,

Julian Nebreda

Christine.

Christine Cho

I wanted to start with the order intake of $1.44 billion this quarter. So, $300 million of that was for the behind-the-meter project, and the rest, the $1.1 billion, was your typical front-of-the-meter projects.

For the $1.1 billion, how should we think about the split of that between US and international? Then, with the $850 million award with the hyperscaler or data centers collectively, do those include EPC, and is there any difference between the developer versus hyperscaler?

Should we assume that both of these projects have a duration of two hours?

Julian Nebreda

Yes. On the data centers, they have a duration of two hours.

We do not offer and they're really no real offers at less than two hours in the market. All the markets are at two hours.

No real difference on what the technical requirements and the margins generally very much aligned to what. I would say the developers, which are usually smaller companies, more agile, and who can make decisions a lot faster, the conversion rate is significantly faster.

I would say that's our current view of this. This is an emerging segment.

Some of the things we're learning as we move forward, but going very happy with it. In terms of the 1.1 of the non-data center, roughly the US continues to be where we make it the most traction, and I would say numbers around 60/40, 60% the US and 40% the international markets.

One doesn't mean that that's what this is going to be. It was a quarter where it was a lot of activity in the US and limited activity in the international market, so.

Christine Cho

Okay. Then just a housekeeping item.

The 10-Q indicates that there were some IPA refunds. Did any of that show up in COGS, or was it applied to inventory?

Ahmed Pasha

Yeah. I think that was the point of seeing the puts and takes.

There is some IPA refund we have, I think it's a little over $10 million, yes, that we have recognized year to date.

Christine Cho

You'll expect to recognize some more in 4Q?

Julian Nebreda

Yes,

Ahmed Pasha

some.

Julian Nebreda

Over time, part of it is recognized, part goes into inventory, and as the inventory converts into revenue, then you recognize it over time, so.

Christine Cho

Okay.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Dendrinos from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Julian Nebreda

Hey, Chris. Good morning.

Thank you.

Chris Dendrinos

Hey, good morning. I guess I hate to belabor the point here just a little bit more, following up on Roth's question around the guidance here.

If I look at the outlook for the remainder of the year, pretty wide range just given the amount of time left in the year. What is driving that guidance range?

I guess, I'm asking just trying to get a sense for how confident you are in the execution path here going forward. Thanks.

Ahmed Pasha

No, that's a fair question. I don't think you need to read too much into it.

Frankly, I think based on the execution, we have still some work to do on execution, we thought it is prudent to give you a guidance in case there's any incremental costs we may have to incur as we ramp up our operations. That is what is really driving that wider gap versus the revenue guidance we gave.

EBITDA guidance is wider than what you would expect. Just so, the only thing that reflects is additional costs that we may incur.

That is what really is underlying driver.

Chris Dendrinos

Got it. That's it on my end.

Thank you.

Ahmed Pasha

Thank you.

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Ameet Thakkar from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Julian Nebreda

Hey, Ameet.

Ameet Thakkar

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the time.

Thanks for squeezing me in. I'm just following up on Chris's question, maybe in a little bit different way.

If I think about the midpoint of your guidance now for fiscal year 2026, I think it implies $1.4 billion of revenue for 4Q. If I look at kind of where the revenue recognition and kind of implied ASPs are, it's kind of, let's just say, kind of 235.

I think that implies 6,000 megawatts of revenue recognition megawatts. Are you guys anticipating a large portion of what you will recognize in 4Q to have kind of EPC?

I know some of the European contracts you have in the past have had pretty attractive kind of implied ASPs because you were doing EPC work. Is that the case for 4Q, and I've got one more quick follow-up.

Ahmed Pasha

No, I don't think. Most of that is in the US.

That's mostly the deliveries that we have under our domestic content.

Julian Nebreda

I would say, for the for the for the quarter, for this quarter, we already have produced and have fully integrated roughly half of what we need to do for the quarter. We're we're confident that we will get to the numbers.

Clearly, as I said, we're ramping up Houston, and that we believe we have it under control, but like any any ramp-up, there's always risks that we cannot envision today, and that's why, the wider range. Nothing In line with what we can do, we we already did half already.

They already have our in boats going to where they need to be or or being or in trucks going to where they need to be. We feel, the the guidance it's still good.

Ameet Thakkar

Understood. Then just if you could kind of help us, it looks like your cumulative deployed megawatts were unchanged versus the prior quarter, and I think they're only up I think 8% or 9% from the beginning of the year or for the end of the last year.

I think cumulative deployed megawatts, it's 7.4 gigawatts. I think at the end of the year was 6.8.

The revenue is obviously up from a percentage basis a little bit better. Can you just help us kind of understand when all of those megawatts get deployed?

Thanks.

Julian Nebreda

Our our definition of deployed megawatts in our,

Ahmed Pasha

metrics

Julian Nebreda

is projects that have reached substantial completion. Our revenue recognition happens significantly earlier, when most of our revenue When we deliver the equipment to site and transfer title, so that's why you see the disconnect.

We use the the our definition of delivery is actual substantial completion, while our revenue recognition is transfer of title, which occur, with a quarter a quarter off. These all convert into into actual what we call delivered products later on.

I know it creates a confusion because our our competitors use delivered as, actual delivery into site rather than substantial completion. We we probably need to amend our definition to align it more with with with the revenue recognition definition.

Ahmed Pasha

Which is percentage of completion.

Julian Nebreda

Yeah. That's the disconnect, Ameet.

Ahmed Pasha

Got

Julian Nebreda

it. Thank you, everybody, for joining.

Again, we are sorry that we had to be late, that we had technical issues. It's really an inconvenience, and know for all of you, and we will assure you that it won't happen again.

Thank you so much for your time and your questions.

Operator

This concludes today's meeting. You may now disconnect.