TAG Immobilien AG

TAG Immobilien AG

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 18, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the TAG publication of annual report 2025 conference call. I am Valentina, the Chorus Call operator.

I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session.

You can register for questions at any time by pressing * and 1 on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press * and 0.

The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Martin Thiel, CFO and Co-CEO.

Please go ahead.

Martin Thiel

Many thanks, and a warm welcome from our side. This is Martin.

Many thanks for dialling in into our conference call for the full year 2025 results. I think today we can present a very decent set of results.

Presumably you have already seen our press release announcing that we have exceeded all guidances that we just have basically raised back in November last year. Therefore we are quite happy to guide you a little bit more through the details.

Let's start on page number 3, the highlight slides. Perhaps we start with FFO I, our rental result, which came out at €181 million.

That's a 3% increase year on year, even a little bit better than the guidance that we raised in November, which was €174 million to €179 million. I think it's fair to say that this was mostly driven by strong operational developments.

The EBITDA from pure rental business was also at the upper end of what we assumed, driven by very decent like-for-like rental growth in Germany, still at 3%, unchanged to the previous year, and an increased like-for-like rental growth in Poland compared to the previous year, which came out at 3.4%; last year we had 3.2%. Vacancy rates in both countries are effectively very low.

In Germany, we're down to 3.2% at the end of the year. We started at 3.6% at the beginning of the year.

For those of you who are following TAG since some more years, this is for us quite a change. In the meanwhile, we are at very low vacancy rates that we achieved throughout the years, coming back from vacancy rates that have been, of course, quite higher in the past.

Vacancy rate in Poland, in all the units that we rent out for at least 1 year, is basically at the lowest rate possible, 1.3%. That shows the strong demand that we have in this country.

Continuing with Poland and looking at the sales results, the sales result was also a little bit better than expected, it came out at €68 million. That's also a 3% increase year on year, slightly above the guidance.

As expected, the fourth quarter was strong in terms of handovers. As planned, we had a quite strong increase in the sales results in the fourth quarter due to this increased number of handovers.

In general, the result was also stronger than expected because the gross margin that we have achieved on the back of strong sales price developments in the past is in the meanwhile quite strongly above 30%, so that was also a little bit better than expected, therefore this increase. Number of units sold in Poland amounted to a little bit more than 2,800 units, so that was exactly, more or less, what we have planned.

Looking at the acquisitions in financial year 2025, firstly, you are all aware that we signed in August 2025 a contract with Resi4Rent to acquire 5,300 new-build rental units. We're still waiting for the antitrust approval.

We expect this now to happen in the second quarter of 2026. I know that we originally expected that earlier.

We can tell you that there's basically nothing new, simply we need to be patient. We have to respect that the Polish antitrust authority takes its time to make its own market research, to look at the market themselves, but unchanged, we are very confident that we get an unconditional antitrust clearance.

Therefore, we hope that now in the course of the second quarter 2026, this clearance is coming, and this is basically the only condition for the closing. Also in Germany, we increased the portfolio, we signed acquisitions for around 1,200 units, mainly at the end of the third and in the course of the fourth quarter in 2025, mainly in core regions where we already are, so that means in Eastern Germany, high gross initial yield of around 10%.

I think I already mentioned in the last call that some of this portfolio that we have acquired have a certain capex backlog. Taking this into account, the gross initial yield is still around 9%, which should be attractive.

That means we are also growing in Germany, of course not in the dimensions currently like in Poland, but we are very open to take advantage of some opportunities that we see here in the market and to grow our portfolio also in Germany. EPRA NTA showed a quite strong growth, up by 10% even after the dividend payment and after the capital increase that we have carried out in August this year, and stands now at nearly €21 at year-end.

The LTV ratio came down significantly from 46.9% to 41% at the end of the year. To be transparent, it's perhaps reasonable to look at the pro forma LTV in this case, because after the expected closing of the Polish acquisition, this LTV stands at 45.3%, which is still a good ratio, because that means even taking into account the closing of the transaction, we've basically already achieved again our LTV target.

Today, we're confirming all guidances for financial year 2026. We're also confirming that the payout ratio for the dividend for financial year 2025 is, as communicated, 40%, and that leads, based on €1 per share FFO I, to a dividend per share of 40 cents.

We will offer again a scrip option for our shareholders, everyone can choose, like last year, between a cash component and new TAG shares. This is something that we think in our sense, as we are growing the business, as we're still investing, makes sense, so that gives a little bit more equity into our business, and the higher share count that could come from that share option is already taken into account for the guidance range.

Then let's move on to the financials. Perhaps we can skip the next pages and move on to page number 7, where we show more details on the FFO I and EBITDA calculation.

As already mentioned, also EBITDA increased quite strongly from the rental business in both countries, in Germany, and of course in Poland, where we have a growing business. That means we have finished some units already in this year, and of course the larger increase will come, hopefully, quite soon in the course of 2026 when the Resi4Rent transaction is closing.

Again, FFO I came out at €181 million after €175 million in the previous year, and one thing that we want to clarify, because we received some questions in the last quarters, is the one-offs you see here, a more detailed split on the right side, and you can see that we are treating subsidies that we get for energetic modernisations in a way that we're excluding this income from subsidies in FFO I. The rationale behind it: we are capitalising the expenses, the capex doesn't affect FFO I, therefore we think it makes sense also to exclude the related subsidies from FFO I, don't be surprised that we are reducing our FFO I with this one-offs, because we think that is simply something which is systematically correct.

In AFFO, this is included, because also here the related expenses are deducted. Just to clarify this, but this is a treatment that has been the case also in the previous quarters.

Coming to page number 8, you see more details on our FFO II development. FFO II is basically FFO I, the result from the rental business, plus the result from the sales business in Poland, which was, as already mentioned, in the fourth quarter quite strong, more than 90% increase quarter on quarter due to the higher number of handovers.

Page number 9 shows you the development of the EPRA NTA. I already mentioned that the increase was quite strong, with 10%, and perhaps important to point out that a large part of the NTA increase is really coming from the operational business, that means from the net profits.

You see this here on the right side of the chart, that this was an impact of plus €1.60. Yes, of course, the portfolio valuation results helps when it comes to the NTA development, but it's fair to say that our ongoing results, the rental business in Germany and in Poland, as well as the sales business in Poland, are really contributing to a strong EPRA NTA per share growth.

Switching now to the financing structure, which is shown on page number 10. I already mentioned that the LTV is down to 41% after 46.9% at year-end 2024.

Yes, it's true that the capital increase that we carried out in August this year helped in reducing the LTV, but also here to make clear that our operating business has also a significant impact on the LTV. That means if we look at the impact that the operational results had in this LTV reduction, out of the 5.9 percentage point reduction, roughly 1.8 percentage point was purely coming from the business that we are conducting, that means from the cash that we generate from the German and the Polish business.

That means we have a quite natural deleveraging process, which is, of course, important to know for us in the future, so that means we can invest, as in 2025, without hurting our LTV ratios. Net financial debt to EBITDA was at a strong 8.8 times; ICR, also at a strong 6.1 times, but this has also been quite strong in the previous quarters.

Page number 11 shows the maturity profile, and here perhaps just quick comment from my side. You see larger maturities come up in 2026, but this is basically as of today all refinanced.

Especially the €470 million convertible bond is already refinanced in a way that we currently sit on a strong cash position of €1.3 billion, which is then used, of course, to pay the purchase price for the Resi4Rent transaction, which is around €565 million, but also to repay this convertible bond of €470 million. Larger maturities, but even larger cash position that we currently have in the balance sheet, just to make this clear.

Coming to the German business, and I'm looking now on page number 13. As said, vacancy rate development was quite strong, in 2025, a development like in the previous years.

In the first one or two quarters, even a slight increase in vacancy rate, and then a strong reduction. We were happy that we could reduce vacancy on a like-for-like basis by 40 basis points compared to the previous year, which is a strong result.

If you ask us, is there more potential to reduce that? Yes, we are convinced that we can bring vacancy to a lower range, perhaps we are quite soon even at 3% or below that number.

Like-for-like rental growth in Germany was also quite decent, 3% if we include the impact from vacancy reduction, but excluding this effect from vacancy reduction, it was also at 2.6%, slightly better than in the previous year, where we had 2.5%. Page number 14 shows the development in the portfolio valuation.

Basically, the value increased a little bit. We recorded a value increase of 3.1% within the German portfolio, after 1.4% in the first half of 2025, which is, as far as we see, in line with the overall market, with peers, and which is a good development.

The years of portfolio devaluations are clearly behind us. Clearly today we have more uncertainty in the markets, how interest rates are developing on the back of the Iran war, which is now taking place since a little bit more than 2 years, but whatever is coming, we're not concerned about our portfolio valuation, as we have a portfolio with a high yield, 6.6% gross yield.

That is really something that also would digest a increased interest rate environment, as we have shown in the past. Just to mention that we have changed our valuer this year.

The year-end valuation for 2025 was for the first time carried out by JLL. After, I think, 12 or 13 years' cooperation with CBRE, we decided to change the valuer, but this had nothing really a special background.

We simply thought, after such a long time, it's perhaps good to have a fresh pair of eyes to look at the valuation, and to change the valuer from time to time should also be, from a corporate governance perspective, something positive. If you ask us, has there been really any change in the valuation results, we can tell you that that has been not the case.

We have seen that valuation results between JLL and CBRE are very close together. Moving on to the Polish business, and looking at page number 16.

I already mentioned at the beginning that the vacancy rate in the portfolio for all apartments that we have on the market for at least 1 year is very low, it came out at 1.3% at the end of financial year 2025. Very positive was the development in the like-for-like rental growth, we came out at 3.4%.

That means rents are still growing, despite still really exceptional growth that we have seen in 2022 and 2023, where rents have increased in total by more than 30%, and that should be a strong sign for the market. Looking now at the sales result in Poland.

The third and the fourth quarter of 2025 have been quite strong. We sold, you see this on the top right of this slide, page number 17, more than 800 units in each quarter, and we see that there's more demand in the market.

Interest rates have gone down in Poland. All discussions around potential subsidy programmes that we have followed for some months in 2024 and 2025 are now off the table.

We have received a lot of building permits, we have an attractive offer at the moment, and therefore we are selling simply more, and are very confident that we have a potential to grow these numbers even in the future. Next slide shows you the handovers.

As expected, revenue was strong in the fourth quarter of 2025. As planned, the largest number of handovers was taking place in this quarter, and the total number of handovers was, I think, exactly in line with what we have planned.

One comment to an announcement that we made today in our press release. Perhaps you've seen that we communicated that we're currently looking into potential strategic alternatives for our Polish subsidiary, ROBYG, including capital market transactions, and one of these potential strategic alternatives is an IPO of ROBYG on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

Please understand that at the moment, we cannot comment this really in detail. We can confirm that we're looking into such options.

We can confirm that this could be something that makes really sense for ROBYG to grow the business, to take advantage of really the tailwind that we currently see in the market. What we can also confirm is that for us, as TAG, in all alternatives, this would not be a strategic shift.

There is no plan to sell down ROBYG. We, I think, already commented in today's press release that we would be the majority shareholder of ROBYG also in the future.

Give us some time to look into this alternative. We are here not under pressure, but we think it's worth to evaluate such options.

Then some final comments on the guidance, and I can here be short. You see on page 20 the summary of the guidance for 2026, which is unchanged to what we communicated back in November when we published the Q3 results.

We can confirm, as of today, everything that we have forecasted back in November. That means we are expecting quite strongly growing results for the next year.

Just to clarify, for purpose of the guidance, for the FFO I guidance, the closing of the Resi4Rent transaction is assumed, if you look at the midpoint, for the 31st of March. If you look at the lower end of the guidance, the closing is assumed for the 30th of June.

Therefore, we have enough buffer in our guidance range to the expected closing. That's it from my side.

Thank you so far for listening, but of course, I'm now very happy to take your questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their touchtone telephone.

You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press * and 2.

Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press * and 1 at this time.

The first question comes from Andrew MacFarlane from Green Street. Please go ahead.

Andrew McCreath

Hello. Good morning, Martin.

Thank you for the presentation. Two questions from my side, please.

First, on the potential ROBYG listing, appreciate that you can't give too much detail here, but could you give us a sense of the timeline, and also help us understand the structure? Is it purely a primary raise, or would TAG also be selling down part of its stake?

Also, what kind of valuation are you internally contemplating? That is the first question.

Martin Thiel

Good morning, Andrew. As said, I cannot give you comment on this in detail.

You should think about a timeline for everything we look at in the course of 2026. Nothing that will show up shortly in the next weeks, but let's say in the course of 2026, we will come back to everyone with our conclusion.

If, potentially, things stay like they are, let me clearly say this is also an alternative, right? We're very pleased how the business is running.

ROBYG is a great company. As said, the market is quite strong, this is also an option, we are not under pressure.

Let's say, in the course of 2026, we should have clarity on this. Then, in case of an IPO, of course, all options are on the table.

From a primary component for ROBYG, as well as for a secondary component for TAG. To make this clear again, in all the considerations that we're looking at, TAG is committed to remain the majority shareholder of ROBYG.

Andrew McCreath

That's clear. Secondly, are you seeing any early signs of disruption to unit sales in Poland from the war, any pressure on construction material costs coming through the supply chain, and also, have credit spreads in Germany or Poland started to move out as a result?

Martin Thiel

The answer is no. On the other side, that just started 2 weeks ago, or 3 weeks ago, so that would be quite early.

We have, unfortunately, some experience with such horrible developments. Just think about the war in the Ukraine in 2022.

I don't want to compare this directly, but we've seen at that time how robust the market is in such an extreme scenario like at that time. Hopefully, this is nothing comparable, but if you ask us, are we concerned about this, we are concerned about the war per se, but not so much about the business.

Looking at interest rates in Poland, yes, longer-term interest rates have increased in Poland like in Germany, but looking at the shorter end, that has not really moved that much. Far, we have no signs that this is affecting our business.

Andrew McCreath

That's helpful. Thank you, Martin.

Operator

The next question comes from John Vuong from Van Lanschot Kempen. Please go ahead.

John Vuong

Hi, good morning, Martin. Just on the acquisitions in Germany, you acquired a couple of assets at 9% yield, including the backlog in capex, which is quite a bit higher than what you're acquiring Resi4Rent for.

Could you comment a bit on the risk profile of these assets, and do you see more opportunities like these in Germany? Maybe as a follow-up, how do you think about capital allocation split between Germany and Poland going forward?

Martin Thiel

Good morning, John. Let me start with the capital allocation split.

We have a clear path of growth in Poland. For example, we plan to start the construction of 2,000 rental apartments in Poland this year.

We're looking at in the future, for sure, at further acquisition opportunities like the Resi4Rent portfolio in Poland as well. The focus of capital allocation, I think it's fair to say that's still Poland, and in Poland, especially the rental business as communicated in the past.

In Germany, this is more opportunistic. Why shouldn't we buy something in Germany where we know the regions very well, where the construction quality is reasonable, or if the price, and some capex, then afterwards the construction quality is reasonable.

These opportunities are, I would say, rare. Perhaps this is also good news when it comes to the valuation point of view, the market is not flooded with great portfolios that you can buy at a great price, but there are opportunities.

This 1,200 apartment acquisition size was not one transaction. I think the largest one was around 500 or 600 units; all others were smaller.

Perhaps this is also something, if you ask for a base case, what should you expect for 2026, that we continue to buy smaller portfolios in Germany where we know the regions very very well, and where the risk profile is okay. That means we can really have a clear view on are we able to bring down vacancy, is that a good construction quality, do we know the regions very well, and then we're happy to buy.

John Vuong

That's clear. Then looking at your Polish rental portfolio, it's green set values have increased, and yields came down a bit over H2, I suppose that's part driven by the rate cuts by the Polish central bank, really on the short end of the curve, but the yield is now at quite a wide spread to the 7.5% yield that you're paying for Resi4Rent.

Could you provide a bit more colour on your thoughts on the valuation of that portfolio, and whether there is room for valuation uplifts?

Martin Thiel

Yeah. Firstly, your observation is completely right, the yield has come down from 5.3% to 5.1%.

Honestly, if you look very specific at that, it's a little bit of rounding, I think slightly above 10 basis points and rounded, right, that's from 5.3% to 5.1%, but still indeed, a slight yield compression. I think we already commented when we acquired Resi4Rent, or when we signed the contract, that the Resi4Rent portfolio is a little bit different, not in sense of locations or construction quality, but this is a portfolio with smaller apartments.

This is a portfolio where the turnover is somewhat higher, more focused on single households, therefore, one should not expect that the yield is coming down from 7.5% acquisition yield to 5.1% within some months, so that it will always have a higher yield. Honestly, we think there's definitely room for a lower yield in our accounts, that means for an upside impact on our NTA.

We cannot specify it, and we will do the valuation of the Resi4Rent portfolio once we know the closing date. I think one should expect that perhaps not on day one we record a significant valuation gain, but I think there's a high chance that over two, three, four quarters, step by step, this yield is coming down from the acquired portfolio.

John Vuong

That's clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Marios Pastou from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Marios Pastou

Hi, good morning, Martin. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions.

I've got two questions from my side; they're actually linked, I'll ask them together. On the antitrust approval, I just wanted to check the confidence on the dated timeline expectation for the second quarter.

Is that based on discussions you're having directly with the competition authority and request for information there? Any news on that would be helpful.

Then just on a follow-up to that, in terms of the earnings range provided based on the timing, you've been acquiring, you beat on the 2025 guide, is there actually room to be ahead at the lower end of that guidance range, even if that acquisition is maybe delayed beyond your expectation? Thank you.

Martin Thiel

Good morning, Marios. First, a comment on the process.

In such processes, you never get a confirmation from the authority that they say at the latest at this date, you will have the decision. The estimate that we have, that is coming in the second quarter, is based on what we hear from our lawyers.

It's an estimate, but hopefully now we are really in the final stages. Unchanged, the confidence is very high, because what's the question behind this proceeding?

The question is, are we, when we acquire Resi4Rent with then 9,000 units, able to dictate rental prices in the cities where we're operating in Poland? In fact, we're owning then 9,000 apartments out of 1.2 million rental apartments in Poland.

We're far away from being someone who can define rental prices. We're competing not only against other institutional landlords; especially, we're competing with all the private landlords.

For us, I think all the arguments are on our side. If you ask why does it take so long, we simply have to respect that this is the first transaction of this size that the Polish antitrust authority has on the table.

Therefore, already in November, they decided to do an on-market research, which is time-consuming. They sent out questionnaires to a lot of market participants.

I think most of the questionnaires have returned in the meanwhile. Again, we stay confident, but we need to be patient.

Second quarter of this year should be a good estimate. The guidance range is indeed broader, so as said, if the closing happens on the 30th of June, end of June, end of the second quarter, we would be at the lower end of our FFO I and FFO II guidance.

As I think the start of 2026 was not that bad, we have overachieved our guidance by better than expected operational development, we should have perhaps some additional buffer in our numbers. Let's hope that we have a decision soon, that we have an unconditional clearance, and then we can be perhaps also a little bit more precise with the guidance.

Marios Pastou

Very clear. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Eleanor Soo-Huynh from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Eleanor Frew

Hi, Martin. I just have a question about ROBYG and construction cost, and I do appreciate that you answer the question partially already, but if you could be a little bit more concise.

We've seen housebuilders selling off 25% due to their sensitivity to energy-related cost evolving in a construction process. You've mentioned earlier the Ukraine war, and it was 20% headwind to earnings at the time, but ROBYG saw a demand boost that kind of offset some of the cost.

I was wondering if you could say anything related to the recent increase in energy prices, if you think you can maintain or keep increasing that gross margin going forward, and how sensitivity do you think your business is to increasing energy prices? Thank you.

Martin Thiel

Good morning, Eleanor. We are very confident that we can keep the gross margins.

As mentioned in the presentation, we are selling now at gross margins quite strongly above 30%, in some cases even closer to 35%, which is stronger than at the time when we acquired ROBYG back in end of 2021, beginning of 2022. I remember then the gross margin was more something 27%, 28%.

That means let's assume we are wrong, and we've overseen something, there is definitely buffer. That would still be a strong gross margin if something shows up that we are not seeing today.

If we look into forecasts for sales price development that brokers have for this year 2026, people are expecting further price increases in the sales prices. This is in line with affordability ratios, also Polish economy is doing well, and salaries are growing quite fast, therefore, I think we have included in our guidance a 2% sales price increase.

I think the market expects, in the meanwhile, even more, therefore we should have a good basis to digest for everything that may come. Let's hope that this is not a déjà vu from 2022.

We simply are operating in a strong market. When I perhaps may answer this a little bit more general, since we are in Poland, we have seen COVID, we have seen the Ukraine war, perhaps now we see a new development, and through all the times, we have always achieved our results, and results were always strong.

This market has simply strong fundamentals, and therefore we are so so happy to be invested there.

Eleanor Frew

Okay. Thank you very much.

Can I follow up on that? My understanding is that 2026 should not be impacted too much because of the presale and because some of the costs already locked in.

If things keep worsening, when do you think it starts hitting your P&L in Poland?

Martin Thiel

The first question is absolutely correct, 2026 is to a large part, everything that we want to hand over, already sold. Construction costs are, to the largest part, already known as of today.

That means everything that we sell today normally comes in the P&L 12 to 18 months later. Therefore, what we sell today affects the P&L, at least to the largest part, 2027, 2028.

Again, there's also an upside chance in this development. Okay.

Eleanor Frew

My second question, Martin, is about the IPO for ROBYG. If I look at some of your peers in Poland, it doesn't look like they're trading at better multiples than TAG at the moment.

Why are you thinking about IPOing currently in this current context?

Martin Thiel

As far as we have observed it, the share price development of Polish developers was quite strong in the past 2 or 3 years. Therefore, this is an option.

As commented, we have also other options. One of them, just to repeat this, is that we continue with being the sole shareholder of ROBYG.

We're not under pressure to do it. We wanted to communicate this today, and I think ROBYG has communicated it with its results 2 weeks back, that we're looking into such options if that makes sense for ROBYG to have access to, let's say, cheaper capital, and for our shareholders, then yes, we're happy to do it; if not.

Therefore, we ask for your patience. Give us some weeks or months to come back to you, then we're not under pressure to do anything.

Eleanor Frew

Thanks, Martin.

Operator

The next question comes from Thomas Neuhold from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Thomas Neuhold

Good morning, Martin. Thanks for the presentation and taking my questions.

There's actually only one left, which is related to the guidance on the breakdown on page 21. Firstly, thank you for providing so much details.

I was just wondering, looking at the guidance for the growth in the rental EBITDA in Germany of only 1%, why is it so low? We have around 2% rental growth, you have been a net acquirer last year, probably rental growth is exceeding CPI, I was just wondering why you don't expect a higher EBITDA growth in Germany in rental business this year.

Martin Thiel

Good morning, Thomas, but the answer is quite simple. This is a comparison between the actual results 2025, which are, in fact, better than expected, and the unchanged guidance for 2026.

Therefore, we don't want to update the assumptions for the guidance every quarter, but I think it's fair to say that the assumed range for the EBITDA in Germany 2026 appears quite conservative on the back of what we have achieved in the last 3 months. Coming down, for example, from vacancy rate to 3.2%, operating on a vacancy which is now 3% or even more makes clear, take this as a more conservative range, and perhaps we're better in the course of the year.

Thomas Neuhold

Understood. Thanks a lot.

Operator

The next question comes from Thomas Rothäusler from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Thomas Rothäusler

Hi, morning. Couple of questions.

The first one is on strategic options for ROBYG. What do you refer to?

What could be alternatives to an IPO and to the status quo?

Martin Thiel

Good morning, Thomas. You mentioned the two most important alternatives, but you can assume in such strategic reviews, also other options are on the table.

Let's be clear, because you mentioned it, an IPO is an alternative, a serious alternative we look at. As I said, a serious alternative is that we continue to be the sole shareholder of ROBYG.

If there are also other options that we will look more deep in, let's see. Give us some time to come back to you with then the final conclusions.

Thomas Rothäusler

Thank you. Then again on Poland, what have been recent dynamics at the beginning of this year?

Did it continue what we've seen in the fourth quarter or in the third quarter, any material change?

Martin Thiel

I would say that the strong trend is continuing. It's clear that in every year, February sales numbers are okay, but perhaps not as the strongest in the year.

I can say that we are absolutely in plan. If we look in the broader market, and you know that also a lot of other Polish developers are listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, we've got quite good transparency on what other companies are achieving.

I think everyone has good sales results. We're convinced that we have one of the definitely one of the strongest platforms in the whole market, and one of the strongest teams, and a great and big land bank.

The whole market is really doing well. The strong reduction that Poland has seen in interest rates, the last year I think interest rate cuts amounted in total to 200 basis points, is of course a good tailwind for the current demand.

We're optimistic.

Thomas Rothäusler

Okay. Then on further acquisition opportunities in Poland, I think last call you referred to, just some update would be helpful, wondering if you see any larger portfolios in the market currently.

Martin Thiel

There will be definitely opportunities in the future, but for us, it's clear, let's get the closing of the Resi4Rent transaction first, which is now hopefully taking place in the second quarter. I'm sure we will integrate this portfolio quite quickly, now we had enough time to prepare for it, and then also we are ready for further growth also via acquisitions.

The base case is that we build apartments on our own land bank. Even without further acquisitions, we will grow the rental portfolio in Poland further.

As I said, we want to start construction, and have already started to a certain part, construction of 2,000 apartments this year. A number between 1,500 units and 2,000 units per year should be a good estimate for the future.

Then on top, if we see opportunities in the market, yes, we will look at it. If you look at how the market looks like, looking at larger landlords in Poland, a lot of them are invested in Poland perhaps not with an extreme long investment horizon.

There's some private equity money still invested, and perhaps for them, like in the Resi4Rent case, exiting after 5, 6, 7 years is something natural, and then I'm sure that we have such opportunities on the table, and then we will look at them as we did with the Resi4Rent transaction.

Thomas Rothäusler

Okay. My last one is on the Poland BTS business.

What is actually the CPI assumption you have in your model?

Martin Thiel

The increase in sales prices that we have in our model is 2%, and the construction price inflation is in line with inflation rates that we had when we did the forecast. I think that was 2.5%, very very similar to the sales price growth that we assumed.

Thomas Rothäusler

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Kai Klose from Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Kai Klose

Yes, good morning. I've got two quick questions.

On page 23, could you explain the slight decrease in the income from services? There was a rise Q-on-Q in Q4, but over the full year, a slight decrease.

Is this related still to lower energy costs compared to '24? Question two is on footnote number 5, the increase in other operating income where you mentioned higher income from temporary rental of existing building component.

Could you give a bit more details on how many units we're talking about, and what kind of temporary letting this is about? Thank you.

Martin Thiel

Good morning, Kai. To answer your questions, firstly, you're right with the analysis.

The reduced net income from services is due to a lower net income from the energy business in Germany, which was, let's say, perhaps exceptionally high in 2024. I think still on a very decent level, but 2024 was simply something perhaps extraordinary.

The other operating income from properties that we are temporarily renting, that's not extremely huge, but we have in some cases land bank that we acquire where there's an existing building on it. Let's say an existing smaller factory or an existing office building where we are going for a rezoning, and until we get the rezoning and the building permit, this building is continuing to exist.

We collect some rents, but once we have then the building permit and the rezoning is done, we will tear down these buildings and then start the construction of residential portfolio, and therefore temporarily, we have some rental income, which is shown under other operating income as this kind of rental income is not the core business.

Kai Klose

What kind of amounts we're talking about? Is it single digit, double digit, million?

Martin Thiel

No, I think this are some hundred thousands of euros, it's not very significant.

Kai Klose

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Manuel Martin from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.

Manuel Martin

Thank you for taking my questions. Three questions from my side, please.

The first one is on the balance sheet. The LTV might come out and roughly at 45% as you commented after the closing of the R4R acquisition.

From that point onwards, would you like to further decrease the LTV, and if yes, by which means? That would be the first question.

Martin Thiel

Good morning, Manuel. I think it's important to repeat again that we have a quite natural deleveraging process with our strong cash generation on the one side, clearly from high-yielding portfolios in rental business in Germany and in Poland, but also from the Polish sales business.

That we're paying out our dividends solely based on FFO I, currently 40%, next year it will be 50%. We keep the full cash from the sales business in the balance sheet, therefore we have a quite natural deleveraging process, or if I put it differently, we have enough headroom to invest.

This year's acquisition, our largest acquisition, Resi4Rent, is a good example. We signed the contract for the portfolio, and hopefully now the closing takes place soon.

We have put a certain portion of equity in there, but in fact, from the €565 million purchase price, €186 million was the equity contribution, and the rest was then, in fact, paid from existing cash or from a certain debt portion. Still, the LTV came down this year, if we compare beginning of the year LTV with the pro forma LTV, by roughly 150 basis points, despite paying out a dividend and so on.

Therefore, that gives us really flexibility. We're currently happy with the LTV target of 45%, which is something that we've already achieved.

Let's see how valuation gains develop. I think what is clear, if we see further positive valuation trends, especially in the German portfolio, and the LTV is coming down, yes, we would use that to go down step by step with the LTV, but that's too early to think about potential new lower LTV targets.

Manuel Martin

Okay. Regarding valuation results, do you have a feeling what could come out in 2026?

Will it be rather somehow coupled to rental increases, or what's your feeling there?

Martin Thiel

I would say that the base case for 2026 is that yields should be more or less unchanged, and on the back of the rental growth that we see in our portfolio and on the market, just to give you a rough guidance, a similar valuation result like 2025, where we had roughly 3% value increase, should be a kind of base case. Now, it's clear, we have to look at the development of inflation and interest rates.

This development with Iran is very young. When we look back at 2022, these developments come not into our results and valuation results on the very first day, but whatever is coming, and I'm happy to repeat this, we think we are prepared with our portfolio for that.

Even if interest rates now start to increase, with a 6.6% gross yield, we are able to digest also higher interest rates if they're coming. Let's see what is happening.

For now, we continue with an assumption that we will see another slight value increase in the course of 2026.

Manuel Martin

Okay. My final, last question, maybe on the P&L, sorry for that one, but it jumped into my eye, there's a tax position in the P&L of -€337 million.

I didn't have the time to go into the notes, to be honest. Maybe you can tell quickly something about that, because it seems a bit high, the income tax position there.

Martin Thiel

You're right. That's indeed higher than the normal.

It's completely refers to deferred taxes, and this will be something that just only happens now in 2025. You should not expect similar impacts or effects in the future.

What happened there? We changed the way how we account for deferred taxes in the future.

That means, in the past, we have only accounted for deferred taxes on corporate tax. Now we also included deferred taxes for all assets and liabilities regarding trade tax, the German Gewerbesteuer.

This is something that we've honestly discussed with our auditor. In the past, you find both possibilities on the market, we know that one larger peer is doing it the way we're doing it now; one other larger peer is doing it the way we've done it in the past.

Now we're following more the conservative approach, because we think, for tax purposes, for accounting purposes, looking into the next 10, 20 years, it's appropriate to account for the full tax impact. Honestly, this year, we had perhaps also a chance to have this compensated with an other effect on deferred taxes, because perhaps you've seen this also at peers, we have a reducing impact on deferred taxes from the future lower corporate tax rate in Germany, the German Körperschaftsteuer, and therefore we decided to do it at once.

This is purely accounting-driven, this is a non-cash impact, this has no impact on LTV, NAV, or FFO I, and this is just something that now was taking place in 2025. You should not expect something similar 2026 or later.

Manuel Martin

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Stéphanie Dossmann from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Stéphanie, your line is open.

Stéphanie Dossmann

Hello, can you hear me now?

Martin Thiel

Good morning, Stéphanie. We can hear you.

Stéphanie Dossmann

Okay. Sorry for that.

Hello, Martin, and thank you very much for this presentation. Just coming back on the acquisitions you've done in Germany, would it be possible to elaborate a bit on who the sellers are?

I understand that you acquired several portfolios, I was wondering if it's coming from same kind of sellers or who are they, concrete? Maybe if you could give some colour also on how the investment market overall is behaving currently, do you see more activity, and so on?

Martin Thiel

Stéphanie, perhaps to start with the first part of your question. What we can tell you is that the larger part of this acquisitions, the 500, 600 unit portfolio I mentioned, was coming from private equity.

Because now we had this one transaction, is it fair to say that this is a trend that some private equity investors who were acquiring asset management-intensive portfolios in the past are now starting to sell? It's too early, but that could be an opportunity in the future that some investors who entered Germany in the past, where value increase was fulfilling their business plan, are now back to the hard day-to-day business where it's all about asset management and a longer-term investment horizon, which is exactly our business model.

That could offer us opportunities in the future, but again, that was one transaction, perhaps we see other opportunities, but let's wait for that. On the transaction market, obviously, or I'm sure you know all the market reports, transaction volume is still, I would say, moderate, but this is okay for us.

We're looking into this really opportunistically. More important, we are not under pressure to sell anything to reduce the LTV.

That's done; that has been completed in 2024. Therefore, yeah, we observe the market and look for opportunities.

We would, of course, also be open to buy something larger, but I think the more realistic case is that we deploy, as in the past, 3, 4, 5 years, most of our capital into Poland.

Stéphanie Dossmann

All right, thank you. Maybe another question on the P&L.

If I'm correct, I saw that the personnel expenses have increased by more than 10% this year. I suspect there is no Resi4Rent impact on that, what is the reason behind that, please?

Martin Thiel

I would say that's a split between regular salary increases that we have, and indeed a higher number of people working for us in Poland, because both businesses are growing, right? The rental business is growing as well as the sales business is growing.

Therefore, that's a development which was not unplanned. I think when we compare with our internal planning, we have more or less achieved exactly the numbers that we expected to end up with.

Stéphanie Dossmann

Restated from the Resi4Rent, what should we expect for '26? Excluding Resi4Rent.

Martin Thiel

I try to give you a sense of a, let's say, like-for-like personnel cost increase. If we take perhaps something between 3% and 4% or 5%, perhaps that's a good estimate, which is then driven by salary increases in Germany and salary increases in Poland, which are perhaps because the absolute amounts are a little bit lower, is a bit more pronounced.

That's perhaps a typical like-for-like development. With the Resi4Rent portfolio, we are also taking over around 80 people, and this has been included in all the numbers that we have published when we acquired the portfolio, regarding EBITDA and so on, because clearly, we need also some people to manage the portfolio on the operational side.

Therefore, there should be higher personnel costs, but of course, higher rents. Perhaps you remember our announcement in August, we are operating this Resi4Rent portfolio on an EBITDA margin of around 80%, therefore that should be a quite efficient integration.

Stéphanie Dossmann

Sure. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Martin Thiel for any closing remarks.

Martin Thiel

Many thanks to everyone for dialling in into our conference call. Many thanks also for the good questions.

As always, if there's anything else left, please feel free to contact us. We will be happy to answer, and we are happy to see you in the next weeks and months on roadshow, and at the latest, after our Q1 results in May.

Many thanks, and have a good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference.

You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.