Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.
Welcome, thank you for joining the presentations of Acea for the results of 2025. As a reminder, all participants are in listening-only mode.
After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing * and 0 on their telephone.
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to the Head of Investor Relations of Acea. Please, you have the floor, sir.
Dario Michi
Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon and welcome to the presentation of the 2025 results of Acea. Fabrizio Palermo, General Manager and CEO, Francesco Ragni, Deputy General Manager, and Valentina Bragaglia, CFO, will illustrate the highlights and the main results of the group.
I'll give the floor to the CEO, who will make an introduction to the presentation.
Fabrizio Palermo
Thank you very much, Dario, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I will start my presentation by expressing a high satisfaction for the results reached in 2025, which really represent an all-time high for the Acea Group.
Let me give you the details. Acea reached a pro forma EBITDA of €1 billion and €420 million, up 10% versus 2024, by overperforming in this manner the industrial plan targets where we announced an average growth of EBITDA by 5% a year.
Such result is at the upper end of our guidance range that was provided and which was plus 10% versus 2024. Now, I need to remind you that the guidance had already been reviewed upward in 2025 versus the initial target of plus 2% to 3%.
As to the debt/EBITDA ratio, pro forma debt/EBITDA ratio 2025 was closed with a ratio of 3.28, below the guidance which was 3.4, 3.5 times. As to capex in 2025, we have closed the year with €1.5 billion of capex, of which €1.2 billion net of subsidies.
Now let me move to next slide, dividends. We are going to propose the dividends to the next shareholder meeting.
Now, considering the strong results reached by the group in 2025 and considering the sound financial structure, the board decided to propose a distribution of dividends equal to €1.20 per share, with growth by 26% versus 2024. Let me remind you that dividend policy of our plan envisages an average growth of dividends by 4%.
Last year, we distributed a dividend of €0.95 per share, growing by 8% versus 2023. The dividend of this year of €1.2 per share includes a one-off of €0.25 related to the all-time high results and also the capital gain due to the disposal of the high-voltage grid to Terna.
Now here you see the results of the last three years. During this period, we have gone through a strong operational and organizational transformation.
Now, the path allowed us to strengthen the efficiency and the competitiveness of our companies, and we have been able to establish our role of player with a focus on regulated infrastructure business. In three years, we have strongly accelerated the capex plan and maintained at the same time a strong financial structure.
The debt/EBITDA ratio at the end of 2025 was equal to 3.3 times, which is strongly lower versus what the main rating agencies envisaged. By the rating agencies, we were recognized our performance.
As a matter of fact, Moody's raised our creditworthiness from Baa2 to Baa1, whereas Fitch improved our outlook from negative to stable. The market, I have to say, also rewarded the results that we have reached and the growth trajectory that we have gone.
The total shareholder return has grown by 176% between 2022 and February 2026, when Acea went above €5.6 billion of market cap. This is a result which testifies also the trust of investors and the effectiveness of our strategy with the industrial plan launched three years ago.
Now, in this next slide, we shall go through the performance achieved by the main businesses of our group, driven by major capex and, on the other hand, driven also by the improvement of the operational dynamic of the group. In the water business, EBITDA €820 million, up by 23% versus the data of 2022.
As to capex, we have accelerated strongly in this business. In 2025, capex amounted to €891 million, up 46% versus 2022.
Now, this momentum allowed us to launch a number of strategic operations to modernize the infrastructures. Such infrastructures will be up and running in the next few years, although the projects have already started.
For instance, the Peschiera project, which is the biggest water plant in Italy and in Europe as well. Now, we won all of the water tenders launched, with 870,000 inhabitants more versus 2022.
Then the budget law of 2026 of Italy envisages the possibility of the extension for 10 years of the duration of ATO 2 Lazio Centrale, thus giving us a better regulatory visibility to all of our business. As to the electricity business, grids and public lighting business, EBITDA €449 million, up 27% versus 2022.
Capex growing here even more rapidly, reaching €385 million, up 43%. We have then completed the strategic asset rotation by disposing the high-voltage grid to Terna and Acea Energia sold to Plenitude.
Such operations favor a more focused business on regulated businesses. Now, as to the environment, EBITDA goes up to €87 million, up €37 million versus 2027—whereas capex reached €116 million, up 152%.
We started our works for the WTE of Santa Palomba. This is a WTE which is going to be one of the biggest of WTE, with a foreseen capacity of 600,000 tons a year.
At the same time, we started works for the fourth line of the San Vittore WTE, which will be up and running next year. As to operational efficiency, we launched a number of projects in the field of robotics and automation of plants, which will give us results in next years.
We are the only water utility in the steering committee of the Piano Mattei, Mattei Plan, thus being able to expand our presence abroad. We have been awarded the tender for a project aiming at planning water infrastructures in the capital of Congo, Brazzaville.
Moreover, in the water business again, the acquisition of Aquanexa, which is a platform of water services. This acquisition will help us to manage in a more efficient manner water resources and help us to further consolidate our competencies in this business.
Now let me move to the next slide. Here we are focusing our attention on the main drivers of our growth over the past three years.
People. For the first time, we have been able to get among Top 20 employers in Italy.
This is a very important recognition, which I believe recognizes the commitment that we have taken to improve the well-being and the growth of our people. We then strengthened the programs devoted to talents and talent growth, and we signed an agreement with the Luiss Business School for a corporate master and a talent program involving 84 colleagues.
We have then managed in a very structured manner the generational turnover for the period 2023-2025. The group then invested considerably on systems by accelerating digital innovation, robotics, also by the launch of A100, a company.
Then we reached agreement with the Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, the Italian Technology Institute, for the creation of joint lab devoted to robotics, and we have then experimented a number of user case with artificial intelligence with 12 different technology partners. In the field of cyber security, we implemented a digital resilience plan which aims at safeguarding and protecting our infrastructures, which are critical, and we are now aligned to the requirements of NIS2 regulation, strengthening the digital resilience of the infrastructure for which we operate.
As to processes, we set up A-Evolution, a new structure devoted to the centralization and optimization of services, and we have defined a new energy transition plan of the group, which guides our strategy towards a more sustainable model, also from energy point of view. As to credit, we have introduced a new management process, which led to a considerable improvement with an increase of collections by 26% versus 2022.
I believe another major step was the update or renewal of the brand identity through which we have redesigned the whole digital ecosystem as well to make it more modern, more recognizable, and consistent with the transformation which is now ongoing. I believe that such results over the past three years are not merely isolated initiatives, but they are the result of a structural change of the group and which makes Acea continue along this direction going forward.
This is something that we are building on to allow Acea to grow in the future. I'll give the floor to CFO, Valentina Bragaglia, who will give you the details of the results.
Valentina Bragaglia
Thank you, Fabrizio, and good afternoon. Let's start from the regulatory and market context.
Here it is important to remind you that in the water business, Acea was awarded bonuses for technical quality and contractual quality for €46 million. Then the update of the WACC for 2026-2027 has seen a considerable stability, and therefore, we are around 6.1%.
As to electricity distribution, there was no activation of the return-on-capital trigger for 2026, and therefore, the remuneration invested capital remains stable at 5.6%. As to commodity prices, electricity and gas prices in 2025 went up by 6% and 8% respectively versus previous year.
It is well known then that interest rates over the last quarter confirmed the trend recorded in the first nine months of 2025 with a decrease of average rates versus 2024. Now, let me move on to the highlights of the results of the group.
Results are strongly growing in all economic indicators, thus confirming the soundness of our financial strategy and the effectiveness of our strategy. As the CEO said before, the approval of results for the first nine months of 2025 in line with international accounting principles, the Acea Energia perimeter were classified taking into account discontinued operations.
We then exposed the pro forma results simulating the deconsolidation of discontinued operations and of Acquedotto del Fiora, which occurred in the first nine months of 2024. Now, considering that the CEO has already outlined the main results of 2025, I'll briefly talk about the net profit and operating free cash flow.
Net profit €481 million, which is an all-time high, and it is up 49% versus the previous year. This is also due to the capital gains achieved following the disposal of the high-voltage network to Terna.
The net profit is also growing by 15% versus the previous year, and this follows the dynamics recorded at operational level. The operating free cash flow is positive at €206 million, thus allowing us to maintain a sound financial structure with a NFP/EBITDA pro forma ratio equal to 3.28.
Next slide, we see the main indicators of the dynamics, and you can see all results are growing strongly. As to EBITDA, Acea closed the year with a growth of 8% versus the results of 2024, adjusted for one-offs and change in perimeter.
Capex net of public subsidies are equal to €1.2 billion, of which €68 million related to activities which have been disposed, net of discontinued operations of Acea Energia. Investments, or regulated capex, represent 94% of the total.
Net profit, which includes the contribution of discontinued operations, goes up by 15% on a recurring basis, and which reflects the very good operational performance. The net financial position is basically stable, and this allows us to maintain a debt/EBITDA ratio stable as well.
Let's now move on to the next slide where we can see the EBITDA. Now, in 2025, gross operating margin recorded an organic growth by €108 million versus 2024.
The main drivers here are the tariff growth and the operating efficiencies in the water business. The contribution of grids and public lighting, which, thanks to investments, are growing, and the increase of production, both because of the price dynamics and because also of higher volumes produced.
On the right, you see the main one-offs and change in perimeters, €38 million overall in 2024 relating to the recognition of previous tariffs referred to 2022-2023, which were recognized in 2024. As to 2025, the one-offs relate mainly to bonuses for technical and contractual quality that we mentioned at the beginning.
Now as to the recurring net profit, the growth equal to €49 million is to be related to a higher operating performance and also thanks to the financial management, which is stable year on year. As to the EBITDA, here you can see on the slide on the right the one-offs, which shows the most important one, which is the disposal of the high voltage tension for €100 million.
Now let's move to the next slide, the capex. Considering the contribution of Acea Energia in the first part of the year, in 2025, we invested €1.5 billion, up 6% versus 2024.
Of such investments, 91% are referred to the regulated business: water, grids, and environment. Net of the perimeter of Acea Energia, that is the operations subject to disposal, the contribution to regulated business to total capex was equal to 94%.
Now here you can see the main initiatives that were undertaken in the year, among which the widening of the water and sewage pipelines and the strengthening of the distribution network for electricity. Now here you can see the cash flow, which is equal to €19 million in 2025, which reflects the capex, the payment of dividends, and taxes.
As to M&A, €267 million that you see on the slide show, among other components, also the cashing in by Terna, the amount of money for the disposal of the high-voltage network, which was equal to €227 million, whereas the cashing in of the ARERA contribution is expected in 2026. Here you can see the financial structure, and you can see that the cost of debt in '25 was 2.07% versus 2.16% of the previous year.
The cost of debt is also affected positively by the reduction of variable rates related to the Euribor, which is such that is around 20% of the total. Here you can see the Acqua Italia results.
Let me tell you that the results of 2024 were recalculated because we had to take into account the reclassification of the Acquedotto del Fiora. In 2025, recurring EBITDA adjusted for bonuses has gone up by 8%, growing by €58 million.
Such dynamic is supported by tariffs growth, capex results achieved by the consolidated companies, and operational efficiency. Net of public subsidies, capex record a growth by €25 million, up 4% year on year, and related to investments made in aqueducts and water treatment plant and the maintenance of network.
Net of the investment related to Acquedotto del Fiora, the yearly growth is €57 million. RAB at the end of '25 goes up to €5.4 billion.
Let me now move to slide 18 where you can see the grid and public lighting business. Now, despite the reduction of WACC by 40 basis points in 2025 versus 2024, recurring EBITDA grows by €22 million to €457 million.
The main drivers are capex carried out and the update used to re-evaluate RAB starting in 2025. Capex net of public subsidies around €312 million in 2025 are growing by 5% versus 2024.
RAB is stable at €3.1 billion versus 2024, and this due to the disposal of the part of the high-voltage network. Now let me move to the environment business.
Here net of one-off, EBITDA grows by 6% year on year. This result is related to higher margins of the WTEs.
Capex in this area growing by €8 million year on year. Let me remind you that in 2024, capex included the effect of the WTE Terni revamping operations.
Here you see the production business. The recurring EBITDA grows by €12 million because of the more favorable energy scenario and the greater production coming from hydroelectric and photovoltaic plants.
The energy produced or generated goes up by 18% thanks to hydroelectric and photovoltaic business. In 2025, capex were €33 million, up €8 million versus 2024.
As to 2026 guidance, well, EBITDA is envisaged to grow between 3% to 5% versus the 2025 restated, considering the one-offs and the change in the perimeter that we've talked about before, and excluding the contribution of the high-voltage grid, and then disposed off in 2025, and photovoltaic plants disposed off in 2025, and then Publiacqua, which is now to be disposed. As to 2026 EBITDA, here we have not taken into account the contribution of Acea Energia, which is to be disposed.
We have included the contribution of Aquanexa, considering that the deal will be closed in the second part of the year. As to net debt/EBITDA ratio, the guidance is between 3.5 and 3.6 times.
Operator
Thank you. The presentation is now over.
We can now start the Q&A session. Thank you.
Thank you very much. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.
We can now start the Q&A session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their touchtone telephone.
To remove yourself from the question queue, please press * and 2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions.
Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 at this moment. Now the first question by Francesco Sala, Banca Akros.
Now
Francesco Sala
good afternoon and congratulations for your results. First question about the 2026 guidance.
I wonder whether it includes subsidies or bonuses for the water business or it doesn't. Then second question again about the water business.
What is the average tariff increase envisaged for 2026 for the water companies? Now another question about the hedging policy.
How much energy have you already sold forward with a sampling about 2026 and perhaps 2027? Then can you give us an update about the works of the Peschiera aqueduct?
Where do we stand there? Thank you.
Operator
Thank you very much for these questions. Let me start from the first question.
In the 2026 guidance, as usual, we have not included any bonus for technical and contractual quality. The guidance includes an average of the growth of water tariffs by 6%.
Francesco Sala
As to Peschiera, the tender should be awarded in April, this is state of the art at the moment. As to hedging policy, well, we are monitoring the situation very carefully.
At the moment, we have an exposure of €3 million of EBITDA for each increase of the PUN of energy, but we are monitoring the market constantly for this purpose.
Operator
Thank you. Now the next question, Javier Suarez with Mediobanca.
Now
Javier Suarez
good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you very much for your presentation. I have a few questions to ask as well, if I may.
Now the first is a more conceptual or strategic question. Now the company has gone through a transformation or change during the year, and now the company is very much focused on regulated business.
Now in your guidance, the EBITDA goes up to 3% to 6%, and I wonder whether you can speak about the company from a structural point of view, and about the possibility to grow debt, but what is the level of debt that you can reach, considering the structure that you will have in 2026? Now second question is about the dividend.
Dividend, as you said, is growing quite strongly, and this is related to the capital gains achieved from the disposal of the high-voltage grid sold to Terna.
Fabrizio Palermo
Now in 2026, you will also have capital gains related to the disposal of the supply business. Now will that capital gain be part of your dividend policy in 2026?
Then I'd like to have some indication of 2026 below the EBITDA. Now the consensus I see is around €350 million of net income in 2026.
Do you feel comfortable with this guidance for 2026? What's the impact of the energy decree that has been approved by the government?
Thank you very much for your questions, Javier. Let me start from the energy decree.
Now the growth of 2% or the growth by 2% of ARERA would have an impact of €6 million for us. This is a regulated business.
We'll have to see the evolution to actually answer your question. As to the PUN, now the change here can be estimated of around 30, 35 megawatt-hour.
This will have an impact of some €10 million. However, it is included in our guidance, because it is a very well-known factor at this moment.
Then there is something which is related to the payment of the ARERA money by the distributor. This will be absorbed.
As to dividends, now, as you heard, we approved extraordinary dividends because of capital gains and results. Next year, we will have capital gains certainly, but the only known element is the dividend policy at the moment, and then if we have to update it, we shall see it next year.
As to debt, for the fact that we now are a player focused on regulated business, well, this helps us. Now at the moment, our threshold debt is around 3.7, 3.8 because of the change of the perimeter of the business.
We expect this will change, but we need to wait for the approval of the industrial plan and then we shall have to see what the rating agencies say. As I say, the approval of the industrial plan here is what can help everyone in this direction.
As to the guidance, we do not give any guidance below the EBITDA, but say that we do not expect any discontinuities below EBITDA. Now the next question by Roberto Letizia with Equita.
Now good afternoon and thank you very much for your presentation. I have a question about the debt guidance.
Capex are going to be more or less the same as last year. Capex is going to be quite high, €1.5 billion gross, €1.2 billion net.
Is this a level of capex which is going to be structured as a level? This helps us to understand the sustainability of the debt going forward.
Then again about debt, are there any special considerations about changes of the working capital for 2026? The change in the debt guidance, does that include also the money collected in the water business?
Just wanted to understand how the mechanics work here. Now, as to the restructuring of the group, I wonder whether in 2026, also because of the acquisition of Aquanexa, are there going to be M&A deals similar to Aquanexa?
I'm just asking this question whether 2026 we will have M&A surprises or whether you are cautious about M&As in 2026? Then the sensitivity of the prices of energy, is that a sensitivity of the group or related only to power generation?
We know that there are increases in the procurement prices. I wonder whether the sensitivity that you gave us is an upside only for the power generation or, considering the net effect on generation, we might have also the effect of the growth of procurement prices.
Now, and then another question of dividends: can you tell us the capital gains that you expect in 2026 so that we can then run our models for dividends? Then
Operator
another question about the distribution companies. Thank you.
Let me start first of all from the question on M&As. Now, Acea as a group has an asset rotation which was completed in 2024.
Now, as to further growth through acquisitions, well, as top managers of the group, we need to see whether there are opportunities in the market. If there are opportunities, we need to grasp them.
Our growth, however, is also related to a very strong organic growth in our businesses. The acquisition of Aquanexa is certainly a first step.
Through Aquanexa, we acquired a unique platform in the water services.
Fabrizio Palermo
This certainly helps us to grow organically, but it could also help us to see whether we can acquire other competencies which are becoming very important, considering that networks are to become more resilient, more safe. Now, as to the internationalization, for instance, the contract for the planning in our water business, well, certainly there might be some operations internationally, but as I said, this is related to opportunities coming up on the market.
Now, Valentina will answer the other questions. As to the debt guidance, this does not include the disposal of one of the company in the water business.
Now, we know that this company is to be disposed of, but we at the moment are waiting. As to the working capital, well, it is certainly positive.
We certainly are to also cash in the money as result of the equalization of the bills. As to capex, now, with the approval of the industrial plan, we will be able to give you clearer indications.
Now, please remember that with ATO 2, well, this helps us to plan capex and also consider what it takes for the power distribution. When I talked about the sensitivity, that was only related to the power business, but during the year, we do not expect further impacts.
Now, considering the procurement strategy in 2026, we do not believe that in 2026 there will be major, material changes. We might have some impacts on the net financial position in the water business, but nothing that can change our guidance in an unexpected manner or in a manner which cannot be managed.
As to the capital gains, well, we shall see when such capital gains are cashed in. The level will be quite high.
Operator
Now, last question about the concessions: well, there we are waiting for the approval of the Draghi decree, and at the moment, we do not have the visibility in order to give you greater or more ideas about this. The next question by Emanuele Oggioni, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Now
Emanuele Oggioni
good evening and congratulation for your results. Now I have a few questions.
The first one is related to the management change. Now in the press, we constantly read that the top management of your group is going to change.
If you can make a comment about this? Then when are you going to update your business plan, considering also the change in the perimeter of your group?
Then another question about the investigation of the antitrust authority related to the disposal of a company to Plenitude. Can you tell us something about this?
You said that the whole thing is going to be closed before the end of the first part of 2026. Then as to the tenders in the water business, now you in Italy won almost all of the tenders that were published in previous years, in 2025.
I wonder which tenders are going to be published in 2026, and if you can give us further visibility about this and whether there might be something relevant about volumes. Over and above the strategy, which implies moving towards new areas, but is there going to be a contribution to EBITDA?
Again about water concessions, now the budget law mentions the possible extension by 10 years of the main concessions for ATO 2 until 2032, but also for the subsequent 10 years. Can you give us more details about this?
Then a very last question, if I may, about the synergies that you expect from Aquanexa.
Fabrizio Palermo
Now how much can the EBITDA go up thanks to these synergies in the first two years, let's say? Now let me answer your questions.
Now the disposal of supply business to Plenitude, as you read the press release, we have received approval of the AGCM. This means a slight change in the perimeter of Acea, and if Acea will continue to manage the market of safeguarded or frail people.
This reviewed the enterprise value in a meaningful manner, a reduction of the enterprise value below 3%. As to the industrial plan, as we said often, now the company is ready to present the industrial plan to the market.
Now we are at the end of the mandate of the members of the board, we'll wait for the renewal of the Board of Directors. Now the budget law has approved the extension of 10 years of the concession that we have in Lazio.
We need to submit our capex plan, but this is very important. Then there is also the project of the government to extend the concessions in the electricity business by 20 years.
The company is ready. The guidelines that we are to follow are very clear, and we will be monetizing this through the new industrial plan going forward.
Now let me give the floor to Valentina, who will answer the other questions.
Valentina Bragaglia
As to tenders, we know that the competition dialogue was completed for the Viterbo tender, which envisages capex by €2 billion. We are now waiting for the start of the third stage.
Invitation letters will be published. In 2026, we expect that a tender will be published for the management of the integrated water service in North Naples.
Here we are seeing also a number of small initiatives related to public-private partnerships.
Fabrizio Palermo
Let me step in, as the CEO. In the second quarter of this year, we expect to complete the acquisition that Valentina mentioned.
We can't give you figures at this moment. Certainly, there will be synergies.
At the moment, we are not customers of Aquanexa, but since we have a 16% market share in the water business, we are the main player in Italy here. Aquanexa could certainly be able to get some contracts, and there will be certainly synergies that we can capture: innovative technologies, services which are more connected to the quality and the use of the water resource, which can also help us expand our business or grow our business.
Now as a reminder, if you have any other question, you may press * followed by 1 on your touchtone telephone. Ladies and gentlemen, we do not have any other question in the conference call.
Then thank you very much for taking part in to this presentation. Thank you, and have a nice day.
Now
Operator
this is the Chorus Call conference operator. The conference is now over.
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