doValue S.p.A.

doValue S.p.A.

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Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 15, 2026

Operator

Welcome and thank you for joining the doValue first quarter 2026 financial results presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode and after the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing * and 0 on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr.

Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor of doValue. Please go ahead, sir.

Daniele Della Seta

Good morning, everyone. I'm Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations and M&A at doValue.

I'm joined by Manuela Franchi, our Group CEO, and Davide Soffietti, our Group CFO, as we present our Q1 2026 financial results. Manuela will begin with an overview of our performance, including key insights into market and business trends.

Next, Davide will provide a detailed analysis of our financial results for this quarter. We will conclude with a Q&A session to address any questions you may have.

Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Manuela.

Manuela Franchi

Good morning, everyone. Let me start with the three key messages.

We confirm our full-year guidance of €800 million revenue and €300 million EBITDA pro forma for the acquisition of Coeo, with the Q1 in line with our internal phasing. Coeo, the engine of our next growth phase, is performing ahead of expectation on every metric, with commercial synergies already activated.

Commercial momentum across our core servicing business remains strong and increasingly diversified, with non-NPL asset classes taking the lead. The year-on-year comparison reflects a very strong Q1 2025 base.

To be clear, last year was not supported by nonrecurring items. It benefited from an unusual timing concentration of revenue effects that normally materialize across different quarters of the year.

On a like-for-like basis, EBITDA would have been broadly stable year-on-year. This is why our €35 million EBITDA before Coeo is fully consistent with our full-year guidance and internal phasing.

Historically, the first quarter represents between 15% and 20% of full-year EBITDA, and on top of that, we will consolidate the full contribution of Coeo from Q2, a business that is growing at a sustained pace. Taken together, this puts us on the trajectory towards the 2026 combined target.

Commercially, the quarter also confirms that momentum continues. New business reached €1.6 billion, in line with the €8 billion annual target, with a healthy contribution from both new mandates and forward flow agreements.

Most importantly, Coeo is performing ahead of expectation on every key metric. In Q1, Coeo revenue grew by 26% year-on-year and EBITDA ex-NRIs was around €26 million, clean of portfolio collections.

From Q2 onwards, Coeo turns doValue into a broader, faster-growing and AI-enabled group, with the first commercial synergies already started and revenue synergies expected to materialize from third quarter. A quick update on the timing of our Capital Markets Day.

Given that Coeo closed in mid-April and is central to the new phase of the group, we want the new business plan to fully reflect Coeo management, platform and growth opportunities, as well as all the technology levers which will enable our growth and operating efficiencies. We will therefore hold the Capital Markets Day in October, presenting an integrated business plan for the combined group from day one.

On automation, Coeo continues to show why it's one of the most advanced platforms in its segment, reporting more than 70% of cases resolved digitally. Finally, our capital structure remains solid.

Net leverage was 2.3 times at quarter-end, on track towards 2.2 times by year-end, and Fitch reaffirms our BB rating with stable outlook in April, after the Coeo closing. On this basis, the board has resolved a dividend of €0.09 per share, payable next week.

Sustainable and recurring cash generation will allow us to approach shareholder remuneration in a consistent and pragmatic way going forward, and we will share more details at the October Capital Markets Day. To sum up, Q1 was in line with our internal phasing.

The year-on-year dynamic reflects timing rather than underlying trends. Coeo is performing ahead of expectation, and with the closing of Coeo, the group enters a new phase of growth, diversification, and value creation.

If you follow me on page 3, let's move to Coeo. Here, the message is very positive.

First, one important point: the Q1 Coeo numbers you see on this page are not yet consolidated into doValue reported first quarter results since the transaction closed on April 16, after quarter-end. Coeo is the engine of our next phase of growth and will fully consolidate to our P&L from April onwards, and this engine is already running at full steam.

Coeo had a very strong first quarter. Revenues were up 26% year-on-year, file intake grew by more than 40%, and the revenue run rate is already well ahead of our expectation.

This confirms the quality of the asset that we have acquired and the strength of its digital-first model. Importantly, this growth is becoming more diversified.

Klarna remains a key client, but is now significantly less than half of total files. More than 60% of files are non-Klarna, supported by new clients in Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, as well as renewal across existing clients.

On automation, Coeo continues to show why it's one of the most advanced platforms in its segment. It processes 345,000 [KAI?]

customer interaction in the quarter, up 26%, with 70% of activity handled digitally. This is translating into real efficiency, with revenue per quota up 24% year-on-year.

The platform is also expanding geographically through a proven Greenfield playbook that requires very limited capital expenditures. Sweden is a good example.

After just one year, revenues grew by 77% year-on-year, reaching €6 million in the quarter. Denmark has now been confirmed as an additional market, bringing the doValue Group to 14 countries in 2026.

At the same time, Coeo is starting expansion in Italy and Spain by leveraging the collaboration with doValue. This is already becoming a group opportunity.

We have activated commercial synergies with three major clients in Italy and Spain starting to be managed from June 26, and operational synergies are also underway, including the deployment of Coeo [KAI?] voice agent and CRM capabilities to doValue.

The takeaway is simple: while reported Q1 does not yet include Coeo, the combined group is already materially stronger. From Q2, we begin consolidating a business that is growing faster than expected, highly automated, increasingly diversified, and already generating tangible synergies with doValue.

Let's now turn to page 4 and look at why Coeo growth is structural. Coeo operates in markets that benefit from several long-term growth trends.

The first one is the continued expansion of e-commerce across Coeo core geography: DACH, the Nordics and the UK. E-commerce is expected to continue growing over the coming years, with annual growth rates in the high single digits.

The second trend is the increasing penetration of Buy Now Pay Later within e-commerce. Even in the markets where Buy Now Pay Later is already well established, penetration remains far from saturated.

In other words, most e-commerce transactions are still paid through traditional methods, which means there is still meaningful room for Buy Now Pay Later-related receivables to grow within Coeo existing market perimeter. The third, even larger opportunity is beyond Buy Now Pay Later.

Non-banking receivables, including telco, utilities, insurance, mobility and commercial receivables, represent a much broader addressable market. There are high-volume, granular receivables where traditional human-heavy servicing model is often too expensive, but where Coeo digital and AI-enabled platform can create attractive economics.

This is the key point. Coeo does not need to rely on one single growth driver.

It benefits from growth in e-commerce, growth in Buy Now Pay Later penetration within e-commerce, and growth in broader non-banking receivables outside Buy Now Pay Later. In DACH, the Nordics and the UK, where Coeo is already operating, this creates a clear and immediate runway.

These are markets where the platform is already present, where client relationship are already in place, and where there is still significant white space to capture. Italy, Greece and Spain represent an additional opportunity, but with a different timing.

These markets are still much smaller in terms of Buy Now Pay Later and digital receivable penetration, we see them more as medium to long-term growth options. The important point is that doValue already has scale, local presence, and institutional relationship in these countries.

As these markets develop, we will be positioned with Coeo technology and operating model into them. Let's now turn to new business on page 5.

Our commercial engine continues to perform. Year-to-date, new business reached €1.6 billion, in line with the trajectory towards the €8 billion annual target, considering the usual phasing of the year and the pipeline ahead.

This is a solid result, particularly because this year there wasn't any sale of large legacy portfolio like the Alphabet 1 in Greece last year, and still delivered €1.6 billion of new business. This is business as usual.

The mix is also encouraging. In Italy, we signed €560 million of new servicing mandates, with non-NPL asset classes, including performing and new UTP exposures, accounting for around 70% of new mandates in Italy.

This confirms that diversification is progressing in practice and not only in our strategic narrative. In the Hellenic region, new mandates amounted to around €300 million, with a balanced contribution from Cyprus and Greece.

We also completed the first ever sale of reperforming loans in Greece while retaining the servicing of the portfolio. An important signal that the Greek market is evolving and that reperforming loans are becoming a recognized and investable asset class.

Forward flow remained solid at around €700 million in the quarter. In Italy, BPER contract flows were up 20% year-on-year, despite the fact that the Banca Popolare di Sondrio perimeter will only start contributing after completion of the merger with BPER, which occurred on April 20, 2026.

This means that we expect some contribution from Sondrio flows from Q2, with the full effect from Q3 onwards, as well as the stock to be added. Importantly, new inflows were 1.45 times collections, supporting GBV stabilization.

The message is simple: even in a clear banking system and a normalized NPL market, doValue continues to generate new business, replenish its servicing base, and expand into more diversified asset classes. Let's now turn to the market backdrop on page 6.

The European NPL market has evolved into a new equilibrium, underpinning more than €2 billion of addressable servicing revenues across our core footprint over 2026-2029 period. This is not the same market we had 10 years ago, since at peak of the NPL cycle and banks were dealing with very large legacy stock.

The market is smaller than the peak NPL market of the past, but more disciplined, more recurring and more sustainable, and this is where the role of the servicer has become systemic. This is visible across our footprint.

In Italy, we see approximately €5 billion to €6 billion of annual NPL disposal from banks, plus €8 billion of secondary disposal, and the country remains the number one destination for European NPL capital allocation in 2026. In Spain, primary and secondary disposals together exceed €10 billion annually, with the market entering a regulatory transition under the EU NPL directive.

In Greece, we have around €5 billion annual flows from banks and secondary transactions, supported by GDP growth of around 6.5% and an expanding state receivable stock above €100 billion. In Germany, the bank NPL stock has grown 62% versus 2019 to around €50 billion in a highly fragmented servicing market with no structured incumbent.

A clear opportunity for scaled, technology-enabled operators like us. The second message is equally important: the opportunity is no longer limited to banking NPLs.

Technology and AI are making economically viable to serve adjacent asset classes that were historically less profitable under a traditional human-heavy servicing model. This is exactly where the combination with Coeo becomes strategically powerful.

doValue brings scale, licenses, institutional relationship and deep servicing expertise. Coeo brings a highly automated, AI-enabled platform for small-ticket, high-volume receivables.

Together, we can address both sides of the market: the new equilibrium in banking NPLs and the emerging opportunities in adjacent credit and receivable segments. Let's now move to page 7 to strategic execution.

Beyond the quarterly numbers, Q1 was an important quarter in terms of delivery against the key strategic priorities of the group. First, on Gardant, the integration is now completed.

The seven workstreams have been closed, the platform is fully consolidated, and synergies are entering full run rate. This is a clear example of execution ahead of plan.

This is also visible in the cost base. Staff costs were down 7% year-on-year at group level, confirming that the integration is not only completed from an organizational standpoint, but is also translating into tangible efficiencies.

Second, we are preparing for new revenue pools in adjacent markets. In Italy, the 2026 budget law positions AMCO as the central procurement platform for the recovery of local tax receivables, and the implementing decree is expected to define the operating rules and addressable volumes.

This could turn what has historically been a fragmented and ad hoc opportunity into a more institutional and transparent market. For doValue, this is exactly the type of opportunity we want to capture in the next phase, although not traditional banking NPL servicing, but it's very close to our capabilities: data, collection, legal processes, operating scale, and technology.

Third, we continue to strengthen our commercial position. In Q1, we won a new servicing mandate from a new client, a leading global asset manager, reinforcing our role with top-tier investors and in secondary transactions.

At the same time, the first-ever Greek reperforming loan sale confirmed what new asset classes are becoming investable and that doValue is well positioned to remain the servicer of reference as this market evolves. The message on execution is clear: Gardant is delivered, synergies are ahead of plan, new regulatory opportunities are emerging, and institutional client diversification is progressing.

The group is moving towards a broader, more fast-growing segment of this market, and it is executing on this roadmap with very solid balance sheet. I will now hand over to Davide, who will take you through the financial performance of the quarter in more detail.

Davide Soffietti

Thank you, Manuela. Good morning, everyone.

Let's start on page 9 with the overview of Q1 2026 financial results. As Manuela mentioned, the quarter developed in line with our internal phasing with the year.

It is worth recalling that Q1 is structurally the smallest quarter in terms of contribution to annual profitability, historically representing around 15% to 20% of full-year EBITDA. The year-on-year comparison should be read against a particularly high Q1 2025 base, which was boosted by an unusual timing concentration of revenue effects spread across the year.

On a normalized basis, EBITDA would have been broadly stable year-on-year. Gross revenues stood at €120 million.

The trend reflects the facing effects I just mentioned, particularly in Italy. Looking over a 2-years time horizon, gross revenue up is up 24% versus Q1 2024, which better reflects the step-up in the platform following the Gardant acquisition.

Net revenues was €107 million, also reflecting the same top-line dynamics. EBITDA ex-NRIs was €35 million.

The year-on-year trend mirrors gross revenue dynamics, mitigated by continued cost savings across the region. When adjusting for the unusual timing concentration in Q1 2025, the underlying EBITDA performance would have been slightly better year-on-year.

EBITDA margin was 29%. This remains above the 26% margin recorded in Q1 2024, while the 36% margin in Q1 2025 reflected an atypically strong first quarter driven by the same timing concentration and Gardant accretion in a quarter that is normally low seasonality.

Below EBITDA, net financial interest, excluding nonrecurring items, decreased by €3 million year-on-year, from €13 million in Q1 2025 to €10 million in Q1 2026. Net income, excluding nonrecurring items, was approximately negative €1 million, reflecting the EBITDA trend, but supported by the above-mentioned improvement in financial charge.

Reported net income was negative €10 million, including around €9 million of below-EBITDA nonrecurring items, mainly related to costs associated to new 2031 bond and employee exit costs. To summarize this page, Q1 developed in line with our internal phasing.

The year-on-year comparison reflects a not fully representative frontloaded Q1 2025 base. Normalized EBITDA is broadly stable, and the benefits of our refinancing are already visible below EBITDA.

Moving now to page 10, we show the regional breakdown of gross revenues. Group gross revenue was €120 million, down 15% year-on-year, reflecting the timing effects I just described, which were concentrated mainly in Italy.

Italy explained most of the decline, reflecting the frontloaded contribution of disposals and value-added services recorded in Q1 last year. The Hellenic region was only marginally down, again reflecting phasing of disposals, while collection in Greece grew 14 year-on percentage year-on-year, in line with expectations.

Spain, on the other hand, grew year-on-year, with NPL servicing more than offsetting the exit from Santander REO perimeter. The contribution in absolute terms remains modest, but it confirms the Spanish platform is successfully repositioning towards a more focused NPL servicing model.

The revenue mix also continues to diversify. Non-NPL revenues reached 43 percentage of gross revenues in Q1, and this is before the consolidation of Coeo from Q2.

Outsourcing fees stood at 11.3 percentage of gross revenues, driven by higher value-added service revenues, which are characterized by greater share of outsourcing costs. Moving now on page 11, operating expenses decreased by 7% year-on-year, from €77 million to €70 million, reflecting continued cost discipline across all regions and the positive run-rate effect of Gardant synergies.

Staff costs were down by around €4 million year-on-year, with all markets contributing through efficiency measures. This confirms that the integration work and the cost actions implemented over the past quarters are translating into visible savings.

IT and SG&A costs also decreased by 5% year-on-year, supported by cost initiatives across regions and accelerated synergies in Italy. The overall reduction reflects both structural efficiencies and the lower variable costs in a lower revenue quarter, with some variable costs expected to come back as activity increases.

Moving on to page 12, EBITDA reflects the combination of the two dynamics we have just discussed. Reported revenues were affected by timing, while cost discipline helped protect profitability.

Group EBITDA, excluding nonrecurring items, was €35 million, with 29% margin. In Hellenic region, EBITDA was broadly stable year-on-year.

Q1 2025 included around €3 million of disposal-related contribution in Greece, a component that would normally materialize in the second half, and the absence of this contribution this quarter was offset by cost efficiency, leading to 47% margin. In Italy, EBITDA was impacted by the same comparison base effect discussed on revenues.

Spain delivered positive EBITDA already in the first quarter, more than doubling year-on-year, driven by growth in NPL servicing revenues and cost efficiencies. Nonrecurring items at EBITDA level were very limited, at negative €0.1 million in a low seasonality quarter.

On a normalized basis, group EBITDA would have been broadly stable year-on-year. Moving on page 13, we show the bridge from EBITDA to net income.

Below EBITDA, dynamics reflect the benefits of the refinancing completed last year, with net financial interest improving by €3.4 million year-on-year. Depreciation, amortization, and net impairment were broadly stable year-on-year at €17.8 million, while net provision adjustments stood at €4.6 million.

Net financial interest improved by €3.4 million to €15.8 million, as Q1 2025 had absorbed the early redemption costs on the senior secured notes due in 2026. Taxes decreased, reflecting the lower profit before tax, and minorities were also down year-on-year, in line with the quarterly performance.

As a result, net income, excluding nonrecurring items, was approximately negative €1 million, with the EBITDA decline only partially offset by lower financial charge. Reported net income was negative €10.2 million.

The €9 million gap versus the adjusted figures reflects two distinct items below EBITDA: redundancy costs and the bridge financing interest on the bond issued to fund the Coeo acquisition, which was classified as nonrecurring until closing of the transaction on April 16. Moving to page 14, let's have a look at the cash flow dynamics.

Q1 cash flow followed a usual seasonal pattern of our business. Q1 is structurally the weakest quarter in terms of cash generation, while the bulk of free cash flow is generated in the second half, and particularly in Q4.

To give you a sense of the magnitude, in 2025 Q4 alone accounted for €54 million of free cash flow out of the €76 million for the full year. In Q1 2026, cash flow from operations was negative €12.8 million, reflecting the lower EBITDA in the quarter and a temporary working capital absorption.

Free cash flow was negative €28 million. The €35 million working capital absorption in the quarter is the mirror image of a particularly strong Q4 2025, when collection and invoicing dynamics worked in our favor.

It also reflects technical timing effects in the invoicing cycle, including legal expenses in Greece. Working capital movements can swing minutely from the one quarter to the other next, which is why we manage and track this metric on a full-year basis.

On that basis, we expect working capital to normalize, with a material release over the course of the year. CapEx was €3.9 million, up €1.7 million year-on-year, reflecting frontloaded investments in our digital platform and AI capabilities.

This is in line with our internal plan, and we confirm the full-year CapEx guidance. To summarize, Q1 cash flow reflects normal seasonality of our business and working capital absorption that is counterpart of a particularly strong Q4 2025.

The full-year trajectory remains on track, and we expect working capital to become a positive contributor as the year progresses. To conclude, let's now move page 15 and take a look at our financial structure.

Net financial leverage at the end of March stood at 2.3 times, reflecting normal Q1 seasonality, and we remain on track towards 2.2 times by year-end. The group maintains a solid liquidity buffer of €269 million, made up of €122 million cash on balance sheet and €147 million undrawn revolving credit facilities, providing significant financial flexibility after the Coeo closing.

Fitch reaffirmed our BB rating with stable outlook in April, after the Coeo closing, confirming the sustainability of the capital structure for the enlarged group. Our bonds trade at around 5% yield to maturity, among the lowest in the industry, and our average cost of debt stands at 6.3%.

The €350 million senior secured notes due 2031, issued in November to finance Coeo, were released from escrow upon closing on April 16. Looking ahead, we continue to see opportunities to optimize our cost of debt as we deleverage.

In short, leverage is seasonal and under control, liquidity is strong, the rating is confirmed, and the capital structure supports next phase of the group. This is all on our side for today.

Thank you all for your attention. We will now take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their touchtone telephone.

To remove yourself from the question queue, please press * and 2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions.

Anyone who has a question may press * and 1 at this time. First question is from Tommaso Nieddu, Kepler Cheuvreux.

Tommaso Nieddu

Hello, and thank you a lot for taking my questions. The first question on my side is on Coeo, which you said it did €26 million EBITDA in Q1 alone, which seems a pretty good result.

My question is how that it compares with a full-year 2025 results that you talked about around €55 to €60 million. How can we compare it with today's number, and if the portfolio impact is different, can you help us with some more details on that?

The second one is on net working capital, net working capital absorbed €35 million in Q1, but you confirmed the 2026 guidance also on cash flow. Does that mean that you confirmed a €15 million positive net working capital contribution for the full year, and when should we see this reversal in terms of phasing?

Just a last quick one on portfolio sale, on the €100 million portfolio disposal at Coeo, can you give us an update on timing and on where you are in the process, also is it a single block sale or multiple tranches, and what we should expect in terms of expected sale price relative to the book? Thank you.

Davide Soffietti

Thank you, Tommaso. I will take your first two questions.

As we were saying, we are very happy about the performance of Coeo, was very positive this first quarter. Coeo grew 27% versus the Q1 2025.

We want to stress that Q1 is typically stronger for Coeo because they capture collection related to Black Friday in November and the Christmas period. This tends to frontload part of the yearly performance and makes the quarterly not fully representative of the run rate.

However, if we were to extrapolate the good performance of the Q1 versus the €60 million 25 2025 reference, and align it to FFRS conversion, this would point 26 around €8 million. This is just a linear extrapolation of the first quarter, but this is, as I was saying, the first quarter is being very strong and usually stronger than the every following quarters.

Going to the net working capital, I confirm the absorption is temporary, is working capital, the assets are there. Our target is still to recovery these amounts, and also to benefit for the fact that we still have on our balance sheet a backlog coming from the previous year.

This is why we guided to have a €15 million positive contribution from net working capital. This will materialize mainly the last part of the year.

Manuela Franchi

Regarding portfolio timing, we are aiming for the sale to be completed by June. The approach is to sell it to fund that we are raising, because in this way, compared to the sale to a third party, we would retain also the asset management fees and more control over the flow agreements that comes with the Coeo business.

Apart from the option to sell to a third party, this is even more efficient from a revenue perspective, and we are in line with the timing vis-à-vis this approach. It will be not the whole portfolio sold, and also the transfer of the flow agreement.

The numbers that Davide has mentioned for 2025, the €60 million EBITDA, are without already the portfolio sale, and is comparable to the €26 million of first Q that we have referenced.

Tommaso Nieddu

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti, Mediobanca.

Simonetta Chiriotti

Yes, good morning. A few questions from my side.

The first is on the trend of the group excluding Coeo. Is it possible to recover a positive growth rate for the group standalone?

You have confirmed the guidance including Coeo. Coeo is doing better, the question is do you expect to recover an EBITDA of around €240 million that was the original plan for the standalone group, and in particular do you see a positive growth in EBITDA in Italy after the first quarter?

Then if you could comment on shareholders' remuneration, in the past the possibility of making a buyback has been mentioned, do you confirm this possibility? Finally, if you could comment, if it is possible, on the move that Fortress, your major shareholder, has made on doValue, if there is any comment that you can share with us on this point.

Thank you.

Daniele Della Seta

Thank you, Simonetta. I'll take your first question and then Manuela will take the remaining one.

First, our official guidance is and will remain €300 million pro forma with Coeo. That is the only number the company is guiding to.

On the legacy business, Q1 was softer than we would have liked, but it would not be serious at this time to revise full-year guidance after a single quarter, especially one with limited predictive value for the balance of the year. We will be very cautious, and we can't rule out at this time overperformance in the coming months.

We can't rule out that, and there is still a chance that we will meet the €240 million target. Finally, and most importantly, the strong performance of Coeo since closing significantly derisks our pro forma €300 million target.

Our confidence in the one guidance we have is reinforced right now. You will remember the first quarter of 2025, which was really strong, but we didn't revise the guidance at that time, and because it's just a quarter, and it's the less significant one.

Let's wait for the rest of the year to see how this will develop, and we think that nowadays the most important data that you should take home is that the €300 million guidance is derisked overall. I'll let Manuela answer the next question.

Manuela Franchi

On the shareholder remuneration, we confirm the idea of activating a buyback in the second part of the year if the cash performance is in line with our expectation. We have also several other catalysts that will materialize in the next 3, 4 months which we are working on, which support our full-year guidance.

On the last point, I think the Fortress move is driven by a trend in the sector. You might have observed that some of the players are now acting later vis-à-vis what we have done 2 years ago of a rights issue to strengthen the capital structure.

We did it in the context of an acquisition, they're doing it only for balance sheet repair, because both Axactor and also Intrum have restructured their debt 2 years ago and are coming with new maturity next year that they realized they couldn't afford. It's was very timed intervention of Fortress that is entering at a very weak point in the story of Axactor to get control with little money, to be fair.

The other point is where is the trend of the sector? There's been very positive results on the small-ticket side for the purchasers if you look to Hoist and similar players.

The calendar provisioning is kicking in, and this is driving an expectation of a material increase in the small-ticket both corporate and bank. This is also why we have repositioned ahead of time in that, already last year with the acquisition of Coeo.

The market trends in terms of results of these companies, as well as the balance sheet need of players like Axactor and Intrum to create capacity to purchase more, is an indicator of that. There is a growth in that segment that they will capture through the purchase, and we will capture through the servicing as well as the fund that we are raising.

I hope it explains the strategic angle.

Operator

Next question is from Antonio Gianfrancesco, Intermonte.

Antonio Gianfrancesco

Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I have two.

The first one is still on free cash flow, because you confirmed the full-year guidance also in terms of free cash flow, but if I understand correctly, this guidance include pro forma Coeo contribution. I was wondering if you could help us understand how cash generation contribution should be split between legacy doValue perimeter and Coeo.

The second question is on new business, because new business intake, €1.6 billion in first quarter with nearly half of new mandates related to non-NPL products. I was wondering if you could provide some color on the current pipeline for the remaining 2026, both in terms of volumes and mix, and whether the pipeline is increasingly skewed toward the UTP, performing, reperforming loans, and so on.

Thank you. Hello,

Davide Soffietti

I will take your first question on cash flow. Just to clarify, the €90 million guidance is for the standalone cash flow doValue before Coeo, but if we add also the contribution of Coeo, which includes the positive contribution from the sale of the portfolio we were discussing before, that will be up to €90 to €100 million, and we need to exclude the interest on new bond upon annual basis, €19 million, and plus we need to deduct the €24 million of the transaction costs we are going to pay in this month.

Manuela Franchi

On the new business intake, you're right that in the first Q, apart from the flow that are pretty much the €700 million split between 80% NPL and 20% UTP coming from the Eurobank and from BPER, the vast majority was more on the UTP and performing side. Actually, performing was the vast majority because of the Greek transaction and also the Italian transaction with an international fund.

How we see the business in the rest of the year: probably, apart from the flow that will remain with this mix, there's going to be a higher percentage, probably 70% to 80%, on the UTP and performing side, and then on the small-ticket that relates mostly to the Coeo business, but also to the corporate receivables, it's with the incoming presence of Coeo in Italy, in Spain, and in Greece in the 4Q, and also the pilot that we are doing in Greece with the three utilities. This will be the large driver of the growth in the last part of the year.

To be clear that there is not a question of a billion of GBV, but even given the profitability and the type of collection is more around the number of files that you manage, so that is typical also of the Coeo business rather than the euro million amount. Overall, the mix is pretty much skewed towards the performing UTP for the traditional part and for the utilities and e-commerce for the new parts.

Antonio Gianfrancesco

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Davide Giuliano, Equita.

Davide Giuliano

Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two.

The first one is on the NPL outlook and forward flow contracts. You reported inflows from forward flow contracts of €700 million this quarter compared to €1.1 billion in first Q 2025.

Can you provide more details on the evolution of the NPL market, if are you seeing a reduction in the generation of NPLs by banks compared to last year, and how much of this difference is due to the loss of the UniCredit contract? The second one, just a quick update on fiscal credit servicing.

Can you provide some details on the more than €250 million of potential revenues from servicing of fiscal credits? Do you include tax credits from the central government as well as local ones in this estimate, and what are your expectations in terms of market share, and just if there are any updates on acquiring the license needed to operate in this segment?

Thank you.

Manuela Franchi

On the difference between the 1.1 and the numbers of this year is 80% is driven by UniCredit and the remaining by a delayed incoming on the Santander new contracts of the new flows. As we have given back at the end of the quarter part of the REO business, and we are getting the new in exchange NPL flow.

This will go up after cleaned up of the UniCredit effect. From the second Q, we will also get the Sondrio flows, which will add to the picture.

As a data point, we mentioned that on the BPER side, we have experienced a 20% growth of the flows quarter-on-quarter. On the tax credit, we have not included them in our budget despite we're working on it, because the timing of the government decision progress slow.

As in March, they were supposed to finalize all the new regulation, they're taking a bit more time, but the indication is clear in the public documents that AMCO will distribute these value across servicers. Our fair market share with AMCO is around 20%, 25% in general.

Clearly here is very much driven also by the new license. The understanding is that it's more attuned to buy the license rather than ask for a new one, because it requires timing which is longer, and we would like to be ready we are with the system, but to be ready with the license as soon as possible, we are working on that point with few options.

In terms of allocation to servicer, clearly AMCO I think will know only when the allocation will be made to them, which is in the last part of the year.

Davide Giuliano

Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Davide Rimini, Intesa Sanpaolo.

Davide Rimini

Good morning. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions.

I have three. The first is just a clarification more on the reasoning why you decided to move forward the Capital Market Day to October.

I do understand that you will be able to get more to talk about sort of Coeo performance, though at the same time you highlight how strong has been so far performance this year, and you also added a few more highlights on the business on the market that are facing. I just wonder whether you might confirm that given the potential M&A target you might have going forward, there is anything sort of instead that might suggest that you will come up with a more enlarged perimeter by the time you will present the next 3-years plan.

This is the first question. The second question is more on the cash flow guidance for this year.

I just wonder whether you might give us a little more color in terms of geographic contributions, where we should expect the most on this €90 million to come from. The last question is just on slide 6.

Since I recall you put a slide in earlier presentation the pipeline, I just wonder whether these numbers might be reconciled with the €50 billion pipeline that you put in earlier presentation. Thank you.

Manuela Franchi

Yes, I will take your question. Now, the timing of the October is not driven by M&A consideration, because we have said that we are focused this year on the integration of Coeo, starting the revenue opportunities which are always no less controllable than the cost ones that we did for Gardant, that is now fully completed, and on the deleveraging, because as part of the M&A we are selling the €100 million portfolio that we still have to complete.

Our focus will be on the delivery this year and on the full exploitation of the Coeo opportunity within our business plan. Consider that we have been able to work on the business plan with Coeo for technical reasons, i.e.

you cannot access that type of information, only after closing, that has happened in the second part of April. The other leg is the operating efficiencies.

We want to be driving this sector by technology, and it's not just a dream, it's the need of the sector to reinvent itself. Therefore, we are working on a very detailed plan and action on the AI and to enable new revenues, but more to rethink about the processes and the way we do our business to extract as much cost efficiencies and productivity we can.

We want to lay that in a very clear manner in our plan. On the cash flow guidance, the main contributor will be Greece because there is a higher stock of working capital there vis-à-vis the other countries.

The other countries don't have that stock accumulated, and therefore will be the normal conversion of revenues to credits. On the pipeline, we try to give a different picture of it, it's consistent with the old one.

It might be even larger including Coeo, but we wanted to give more data points given that we are progressing obviously with the Capital Markets Day and we have done a thorough analysis of the future trajectory of the market in the next 2 3 to 5 years. It was just a different way to show you the depth of the market.

Davide Rimini

Thank you.

Operator

For any further questions, please press * and 1 on your telephone. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press * and 1 on your telephone.

Mr. Della Seta, there are no more questions registered.

Sorry, we have one more question from Simonetta Chiriotti, Mediobanca. Simonetta Chiriotti, your line is open.

Simonetta Chiriotti

Yes, thank you. Sorry.

If it is possible to have an update on Germany, and in particular on the activity in the NPL segment in that market that was flagged in the previous call as an important opportunity. Second question, we spoke of 2026 guidance, on a shorter term is it possible to have some early guidance on the second quarter of the year?

Thank you.

Manuela Franchi

Simonetta, we didn't understand the first one. The voice was not very clear.

Can you repeat?

Simonetta Chiriotti

Yes, on Germany, if it's possible to have an update on that market for your traditional activity.

Manuela Franchi

Yes, definitely. There we had discussed last time, we didn't repeat ourselves, but we have set up a division, we have done the hirings, we have the new headquarters for the NPL business, and we are managing now two banks, and we just bid for another RFP for a larger bank, one of the top two private banks in the market, and we expect another one in the last part of the year.

That division is up and running, and in the 26% outside of Coeo there is also that performance included for the first client that started end of last year.

Simonetta Chiriotti

Okay. On the second quarter performance, is it possible to have some anticipation already?

Daniele Della Seta

No, Simonetta. It is not common practice for the company to provide guidance on the sequential quarters, we are still developing this quarter, it is developing, and as usual, the company will interact with markets in the due course.

Simonetta Chiriotti

Thank you.

Operator

Mr. Della Seta, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Daniele Della Seta

Thank you. Thank you very much, everybody.

Have a good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over.

You may disconnect your telephones.