MKS Inc.

MKS Inc.

194.95
USD
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6.30EPS
68.14P/E
30.07BMarket Cap

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptNovember 5, 2026

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is May.

I will be your conference operator today, and at this time, I would like to welcome everyone to MKS third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session, and to ask questions, please press star one. To withdraw your question, please press star one again.

Thank you.

Paritosh Misra

Good morning, everyone. I'm Paritosh Misra, Vice President of Investor Relations, and I'm joined this morning by John Lee, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Ram Mayampurath, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Yesterday, after market close, we released our financial results for the third quarter of 2026, which are posted to our investor website at investor.mks.com. As a reminder, various remarks about future expectations, plans, and prospects for MKS comprise forward-looking statements.

Actual results may differ materially as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in yesterday's press release and in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and in subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. These statements represent the company's expectations only as of today and should not be relied upon as representing the company's estimates or views as of any date subsequent to today, and the company disclaims any obligation to update these statements.

During the call, we will be discussing various non-GAAP financial measures. Unless otherwise noted, all income statement-related financial measures will be non-GAAP other than revenue and gross margin.

Please refer to our press release and the presentation materials posted to the Investor Relations section of our website for information regarding our non-GAAP financial results and a reconciliation to our GAAP measures. Our investor website also provides a detailed breakout of revenues by end market and division.

Now, I'll turn the call over to John.

John Lee

Thanks, Paritosh, and good morning, everyone. MKS's strong business momentum continued in our third quarter, driving revenue and EPS above the high end of our guidance.

We also expanded operating margins by approximately 700 basis points year-over-year, demonstrating the leverage in our business as revenue scaled. Each of our end markets performed at or above the high end of our guidance, and we continue to see strong order flow, providing us greater visibility into future demand.

Our guidance today points to a very strong finish to the year, with continued robust year-over-year revenue growth driven by unprecedented demand across our key end markets. As AI-related investments accelerate across semiconductor manufacturing and electronics and packaging, we are capitalizing on our broad capabilities, long-term relationships with customers, and our ability to develop solutions that address the fundamental trends of scaling, stacking, and new materials.

These same trends are driving complex requirements for memory and logic devices, as well as the advanced circuit boards and substrates that integrate them. We are uniquely foundational to enabling customer roadmaps across both markets.

This position is also translating to new design wins that create opportunities to gain share and further extend our visibility into the AI supercycle. At our upcoming Investor Day in December, we look forward to sharing more about how and where we innovate and win.

I'll turn now to our Q3 end market performance and Q4 outlook. Starting with our Semiconductor market, revenue was at the high end of our guidance range, up 15% sequentially and 54% year-over-year.

Growth was broad-based across our vacuum and photonic solutions, including power, pressure, microwave, and plasma and reactive gas solutions. We also secured a major customer win with a leading foundry, selecting our dissolved gas solutions for advanced logic.

NAND upgrades continued at a healthy pace, and with greenfield capacity planned for 2028, our RF power outlook is robust. Design win activity remains solid, including an important pulsed DC power win for a significant conductor etch application.

Overall, order activity remains very strong, providing rapid revenue growth and excellent visibility well into the new year. Our semi outlook for Q4 points to accelerating year-over-year growth, with continued strength across our product portfolio.

Customer conversations we are having give us confidence in our ability to continue outgrowing WFE during this period of elevated investment. Against this backdrop, some customers have noted certain constraints elsewhere in their supply chain.

We plan several years ahead so that we and our suppliers are positioned to meet customer demand. From a manufacturing perspective, we are preparing for WFE approaching $300 billion in 2028.

Our Malaysia supercenter will ramp over the coming quarters, with room for further expansion. We also plan to expand supercenter capacity in other key regions, such as North America and Europe.

MKS has the depth, scale, and financial strength to expand capacity across our own operations and supply chain while maintaining CapEx intensity within our targeted 3% to 5% range. Turning now to Electronics and Packaging, the business continues to deliver outstanding growth.

Revenue was well above our guidance range, increasing 9% sequentially on top of a strong Q2 and up 43% year-over-year. Our Chemistry Equipment business continued to see record order volumes as customers expand capacity largely to support AI-related applications.

Chemistry revenues grew 26% year-over-year, excluding the impact of FX and palladium pass-through, the strongest growth in the history of the company. That performance reflects strong AI-driven demand, as well as increasing consumables revenue as the equipment we have installed over the past several quarters is qualified and moves into production.

As a reminder, our proprietary chemistries have an attach rate of greater than 85% to our equipment install base, generating years of steady revenue at gross margins well above the corporate average. AI-related chemistry revenue represented 10% of our Electronics and Packaging chemistry revenues last year, and is now tracking towards the high end of the 15% to 20% range we had talked about for 2026.

Including all of our E&P capabilities—chemistry equipment, chemistry, and laser systems—AI exposure is expected to represent approximately 25% of total E&P revenue for the full year and approximately 180% annual increase in dollar terms. As we've reported throughout the year, our momentum is accelerating.

At the midpoint of our guidance, we expect approximately one-third of our E&P revenue to come from AI in Q4, and we would expect this to continue to increase as we help customers meet growing demand for AI applications. Chemistry equipment sales were up more than 75% year-over-year in the third quarter, and we expect full year sales of more than $300 million, over 50% above our historic annual peak.

Current capacity is sold out through 2027, and to meet accelerated chemistry equipment demand, we are expanding capacity in Guangzhou, China, and this will double our overall capacity when completed, which we are targeting for Q3 2027. Across the electronics ecosystem, AI demand is increasingly challenging semiconductor innovation, as well as advanced packaging substrates and PCB technologies.

As package sizes grow, layer counts increase, and package architectures become more complex, we are leveraging our broad electronics and packaging portfolio to address these technological challenges. Looking ahead to Q4, order activity remains extremely strong across the board, with chemistry equipment now booking for deliveries well into 2028.

We've also seen considerable new order volume for our laser systems for rigid PCB applications, including optical modules, with deliveries expected to accelerate significantly in 2027. These wins reflect years of coordinated go-to-market groundwork across our PCB laser drilling systems and chemistry businesses, which has positioned us well to meet the industry's needs for innovation at just the right time.

We expect Q4 Electronics and Packaging revenue to increase over 40% year-over-year, driven by strength in chemistry equipment, AI-related chemistry, and rigid PCB laser drilling systems. On an annual basis, our E&P business is on track to grow nearly 40% in 2026 as AI continues to drive elevated capital investment across the PCB industry.

As new equipment is qualified and ramps in coming quarters, we expect our larger installed base will support steady growth in our higher-margin chemistry consumables over the long term. Turning to our Specialty Industrial market, revenue grew 15% sequentially and 27% year-over-year, well above our guidance range, led by strength in datacom and improvement in general industrial markets.

Automotive posted modest growth despite soft vehicle production, highlighting our value-add position in the market. The growth of these businesses in 2026 demonstrates our ability to extend our core capabilities into attractive markets.

Looking ahead to Q4, we expect revenue to remain at this level, following the significant growth we delivered. Last month, we announced that we entered into an agreement to sell Ophir Optics business to TTM Technologies.

Ophir Optics develops high-precision infrared thermal imaging and laser optics solutions for defense, security, and industrial applications. We grew this business organically, improved its profitability, and have agreed to sell it at an attractive valuation to an industry leader.

For MKS, the transaction gives us balance sheet flexibility and shows how our specialty industrial activities enhance shareholder value creation. Wrapping up, MKS is poised to end 2026 on a strong note, and we're excited about what lies ahead.

As the only company in our space broadly exposed to powerful trends driving innovation in both semiconductors and advanced PCBs, we're in a great position to significantly grow our business in the coming years. AI is not just driving investment; it's pulling forward our customers' technology roadmaps across the semi and electronics packaging landscapes, elevating the value of innovation for those who can deliver it.

As a foundational enabler of that innovation, the future is bright for MKS. I want to thank our outstanding MKS team for their tireless efforts to deliver for our customers amid unprecedented demand, and our suppliers, customers, and industry partners across the electronics ecosystem for their continued support and collaboration.

Now, here's Ram to run through the quarter and our financial outlook in more detail.

Ram Mayampurath

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. We delivered another very strong quarter driven by broad-based demand across all our end markets.

Our results demonstrate our ability to translate high revenue growth into even better earnings growth through disciplined execution. We are driving strong operating leverage while continuing to invest in the multiple growth opportunities that we see ahead.

For the third quarter, MKS reported revenue of $1.41 billion, up 13% sequentially and 43% year-over-year. As our guidance indicates, we expect strong demand across all our end markets to continue in the fourth quarter.

Third quarter semiconductor revenue was $638 million, up 15% sequentially and 54% year-over-year. In addition to continued strength in DRAM and logic demand, we saw increased momentum in NAND upgrade activity.

Collectively, this demand is driving continued strength across our key product categories, led by plasma and reactive gas solutions and vacuum products, as well as accelerating growth in power solutions, optics, and photonics. Third quarter Electronics and Packaging revenue was $415 million, up 9% quarter-over-quarter and 43% year-over-year, continuing its record growth.

The sequential improvement was driven by higher chemistry and chemistry equipment sales, partially offset by typical seasonal decline in flexible PCB drilling system sales. The strong year-over-year growth was driven by demand for chemistry equipment, chemistry solutions, and flexible PCB drilling equipment, underscoring our strong market position despite smartphone market softness.

As John mentioned, our chemistry business continues to benefit from accelerating demand for AI-related applications, with sales up 26% year-over-year, excluding the impact of FX and palladium pass-through, and a record year-over-year growth rate. In our Specialty Industrial market, third quarter revenue was $360 million, an increase of 15% sequentially and 27% on a year-over-year basis.

The year-over-year sequential growth was driven primarily by datacom and general industrial, while our automotive business remains stable. We reported third quarter gross margin of 47.7%, supported by higher volumes and a 30 basis points benefit from IEPA tariff refunds, which we do not expect to repeat in Q4.

Our gross margin continues to expand, driven by the value of our solutions, as well as higher volumes despite modest headwinds from growing sales of lower-margin chemistry equipment, as well as costs incurred from the expansion of manufacturing capabilities. While we expect these headwinds to continue into next year, both are expected to become margin tailwinds longer term as chemistry consumables grow with our newly installed chemistry equipment and new capacity reaches full utilization.

Third quarter operating income was $393 million, with operating margin improving approximately 700 basis points year-over-year to 27.8%, well above our guidance and our highest quarterly operating margin in over eight years. Operating expenses of $281 million were in line with our guidance as we continue to drive operating leverage in the business.

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $434 million, yielding a 30.7% margin and above the high end of our guidance. Net interest expenses were $33 million, compared to $45 million in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting the benefits of our first quarter financing actions, as well as continued proactive principal prepayment.

Our third quarter effective tax rate was 19.1%, slightly favorable related to our guidance. Third quarter net earnings were $292 million, or $4.18 per diluted share, more than doubling year-over-year and above the high end of our guidance.

Let me now turn to our cash flow and balance sheet. We closed the quarter with over $1.6 billion of liquidity, comprised of cash and cash equivalents of $676 million and our undrawn revolving credit facility of $1 billion.

We generated strong free cash flow of $243 million, about 17% of revenue. We expect to continue to invest in CapEx and working capital through the year-end to support organic growth, with full year capital spending remaining within our target range of 3% to 5%.

With excess cash, we made a €50 million principal prepayment on our euro term loan in Q3. In addition, we made another $100 million prepayment on the USD term loan this month, bringing total year-to-date prepayments to over $450 million.

Our net leverage ratio at the end of Q3 was 2.4 times based on a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion, down one and a half turns from a year ago and within our target net leverage of 2.5 times. With our stronger balance sheet and healthy business outlook, our board recently approved a $500 million share repurchase program, providing flexibility to repurchase shares opportunistically.

Finally, we paid a dividend of 25 cents per share, or $17 million. Let me now turn to our fourth quarter outlook.

We expect revenue of $1.49 billion, plus or minus $40 million, which represents a 44% growth over the prior year. Our fourth quarter outlook by end market is as follows: revenue from our Semiconductor market is expected to be $700 million, plus or minus $15 million; revenue from our Electronics and Packaging market is expected to be $430 million, plus or minus $15 million; and revenue from our Specialty Industrial market is expected to be $360 million, plus or minus $10 million.

Based on anticipated revenue levels and product mix, we estimate fourth quarter gross margin of 47.5%, plus or minus 100 basis points, similar to where we ended Q3 excluding IEPA tariff refunds. We expect to continue to deliver strong operating leverage, with fourth quarter operating expenses at $288 million, plus or minus $5 million, and increasing at a much slower rate than revenue.

We expect fourth quarter operating income of $420 million, plus or minus $29 million, with an operating margin of over 28%. We estimate fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $461 million, plus or minus $29 million.

We expect our fourth quarter tax rate to be approximately 9%, and full year tax rate to be just over 16%. Based on these assumptions, we expect fourth quarter net earnings per diluted share of $5.00, plus or minus 38 cents.

Our strong Q3 performance and Q4 outlook position us for an outstanding second half of the year. Order volumes are healthy, visibility is improving, and strong execution is driving higher profitability and cash generation while we invest in the business to address the strong growth cycle we see ahead on our semiconductor and electronics and packaging businesses.

With that, operator, please open the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session.

If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a confirmation once your line has been placed in the queue.

If you wish to withdraw your question, please press star followed by one again. If you are using a speakerphone, we kindly ask that you lift the handset before pressing any keys.

Please hold for a moment while we gather questions. Our first question comes from the line of Matthew Prisco, Cantor.

Matthew Prisco

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions.

I guess first starting on the semi side, can you give a bit more color on that visibility that the customers are giving you today? Maybe how that's split between actual orders and forecasts?

Maybe your latest thoughts on MKS's ability to outgrow WFE through 2027? What type of magnitude should we be thinking?

Thank you.

John Lee

Good morning, Matt. It's John.

We are in obviously constant contact with all the semi customers, and they are giving us much better visibility than the past. Extends out certainly into the '28 time frame, and those are guidance levels.

The bookings and actual orders, of course, are in a shorter period of time because you actually need the details of actually what they need. The visibility is great, as you would expect.

During up-cycles, MKS has always demonstrated that we outperform WFE, and we see that happening now. I think early in '26, it was a little slower start.

I think the critical subsystems folks were trying to rev the engine, if you will, and our supply chains. Now you're starting to see that acceleration.

I think with the guidance, we'll probably grow something like 40% year-over-year. Then I think WFE is kind of in that mid-30s percentage range.

I think that will continue in '27.

Matthew Prisco

Great. Thank you.

Then I guess speaking on semis, can you offer some more color on the constraints that you're seeing in today's market? Are there any share opportunities that you see arising from this?

Any problem areas for you guys in securing supply? Thank you.

John Lee

I think there's been reported shortfalls in certain commodities, and some of those commodities are things that we make as well. Those are share gain opportunities for us.

I think if you look at our delivery, our operations team has been doing a great job. We've talked about our factory expansions, and we're well on our way to supporting $300 billion WFE.

I'd like to take a little time to also just remind everybody how much hard work this is for the entire supply chain. We have thousands of suppliers.

They're all stepping up. We've asked them to double, and we've asked them to double again.

This is not a small feat, right? I think it shouldn't be lost that we're asking the entire supply chain to do something that's never been done before.

We may end this year as an industry increasing WFE by $50 billion just in one year. Of course, that was a slower rate in the beginning of the year than the end of the year.

I think the accomplishments for the industry are really impressive.

Matthew Prisco

Thank you.

Operator

All right, thank you very much. Our second question comes from the line of Krish Sankar of TD Cowen.

Krish Sankar

Hi. Thanks for taking my question.

I had two of them. John, if you look at some of the big, well-known constraints out there, one is MFCs, the other one is the rigid PCB drilling tool.

You have a position in both of those, and it looks like the constraint is coming from one of your Japanese competitors. I'm wondering, is there a chance for you to gain market share in both the MFC side and also the rigid PCB side?

John Lee

I think for sure those are opportunities, especially since we've been delivering pretty well. I would say that in our prepared remarks, we did call out a little bit of the rigid PCB drilling business and how that has been very strong now and will continue to accelerate through 2027.

That is a lot of it driven by the fact that we've already been qualified, but there are constraints there, and that's an opportunity for us. Yes, these are share gain opportunities, one of which we're calling out already.

Krish Sankar

Got it. Then the other thing I just want to find out is that clearly you've been selling quite a bit of these tools this year on the EPC side, and my understanding is that the chemistry follows later.

Is it fair to assume 2027, the chemistry revenues could be higher than '26, and what is its implication to gross margin?

John Lee

As our gross margin for Chemistry is higher than corporate average, significantly, and that remains the same. As that chemistry starts being put into the tools we have been delivering, we will get that tailwind on gross margin as the chemistry revenue increases.

I would say we are already seeing some of that chemistry revenue from the first tools that we have shipped several quarters ago. That's starting, and obviously the shipment of tools has continued since three or four, maybe five, six quarters ago.

We expect that to accelerate in '27 and that chemistry revenue to come with that.

Krish Sankar

Oh, thanks, John.

John Lee

Thanks, Krish.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our third question comes from the line of Melissa Weathers from Deutsche Bank.

Go ahead.

Melissa Weathers

Hi, thank you for the question. I guess following up on that gross margin point, can you help walk us through the different puts and takes as we go through next year?

You've got some mix headwinds, you've got some capacity headwinds, but then you do have that chemistries piece, and volumes are clearly going higher. Can you just kind of hold our hands as we walk through next year and how you're thinking about gross margins?

Ram Mayampurath

Sure. Hi, Melissa.

This is Ram. We are improving our gross margins as you noted, as we saw this quarter.

We have improved it sequentially and year-over-year. We continue to execute very well, and we are translating that high revenue to higher gross margins, earnings, and cash flow.

In the past, we have said we will be 47% plus, and we are there now with the two headwinds you noted. That's the investments we are making to improve capacity and capabilities, and the mix impact from fast-growing equipment mix.

Those two are masking our true underlying performance, if you may, in the near term. However, you know that this will turn to tailwinds in the longer term.

We do have a path to a higher gross margin, and that'll come. The volume is certainly helping, and ongoing improvement activities will help margins in '27.

In the near term, we expect the margins to stay at these levels, but we do have a path to higher gross margins, and we'll talk more about that in a month in our Investor Day.

Melissa Weathers

Perfect. Looking forward to that Investor Day.

Then you called out in the prepared remarks the NAND upgrade spending, and maybe it seems like a rosier outlook on greenfield NAND spending for 2027. Can you give a little more color on the signals that you're seeing in that market and kind of what's changed and how you expect that to grow through the next couple years?

John Lee

I think what we have seen is the NAND upgrade is in full swing. One of our biggest customers has mentioned that that's been pulled in, and so we're seeing that.

We're seeing the RF power that goes with those upgrades, we're really happy to see that. Of course, this has no greenfields.

The publicly announced greenfields are coming online kind of in the late '27, early '28 time frame, and so the equipment will go in, hopefully a little bit before that. I think that upgrades will continue for the most part of '27, but then greenfields start taking off in the later half of '27, likely, and into '28.

You hear every day another announcement about another NAND fab out in the future. I think it's a multi-year tailwind in terms of NAND equipment building that has to happen to support this AI infrastructure.

Melissa Weathers

Thank you both.

John Lee

Thanks, Melissa.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our fourth question comes from the line of Steve Barger from KeyBanc.

Steve Barger

You said Chemistry equipment is sold out through '27, bookings extend into '28, and then the Guangzhou capacity doesn't come on till the third quarter of next year. Can you help us frame the cadence of E&P growth next year?

How much growth is constrained by available equipment capacity right now versus customer qualification timing, and just how should that larger consumable base allow Chemistry revenue to grow faster than equipment revenue?

John Lee

Steve, thanks for the question. I think I'll give you a couple of pieces.

We are likely to grow chemistry equipment revenue to that $300 million range in 2026. As we said in the prepared remarks, our historic peak has never exceeded $200 million.

We hit that in '25 actually, and this year we're at 300-plus. That's without new factories.

That is really just using the factories we have, working with our partners, supply chain partners, to help us with their space, taking every bit of space we can while we prepare for the next set of capacity. Even though we've been able to increase our revenue by 50% without adding a factory, that is really why our bookings are booking out into '28.

There is obviously a constraint. We'll try to pull in the Q3 2027 time frame, but when that comes online, that doubles our equipment capacity.

We'll try to deliver that as fast as possible. I think that will allow the revenue growth to accelerate towards the second half of '27 and on.

Then the chemistry revenue, to your point, we have said it's between 20 months to 30 months from the acceptance of a PO. There's a six- to eight-month time frame to build the thing.

There's an installation period, and there's a qualification period at a customer's, and then there's a ramp. As I said, some of that equipment that we shipped six or seven quarters ago is now seeing that chemistry revenue, and we expect that to accelerate as more of that equipment gets qualified.

That accelerates, especially if we continue putting more equipment in the second half of '27 and beyond.

Steve Barger

That is great detail. Looking forward, do you expect stability or maybe even improvement in attach rates as layer counts and process complexity increases?

Can you talk about trends in chemical consumption per machine, meaning are more complex boards driving higher chemical consumption per machine?

John Lee

I'll answer the second question. It's a little easier.

Each board is made one layer at a time, and so the consumption is pretty much consistent. It's just that there are more layers and therefore more square inches of PCBs as layer count grows.

It's really that. Now, at the same time, we're making more complex PCBs, the chemistry's changing.

We're making different kinds of chemistries that allow you to fill smaller features, allows you to bond 80 layers together instead of 20, much better. All these technological innovations are occurring at the same time as we're increasing the number of layers and shrinking device sizes.

To your point, if you can provide that chemistry and that technology, it is much harder to displace that. There's very little motivation to change that because it's such a difficult process now.

It's kind of the same story as semi, right, the copy exact idea in semi, which is it is so hard to make a chip work and there's thousands of steps, you really don't want to change anything. I think we're in a great position because the thesis for buying Atotech was to have the chemistry and the equipment knobs.

When you have both knobs, you're optimizing both, and therefore you're going to come up with a solution that I think is much better and faster and harder to displace. We're really happy with the position we're in with our E&P business.

Steve Barger

That's great. Thank you.

John Lee

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Our fifth question comes from the line of Jim Ricchiuti of Needham & Company. Go ahead, please.

Jim Ricchiuti

Hi, thanks. Good morning.

You've alluded a couple of times, I think, to this, but the growth that you're seeing in Chemistry, which I think you said was 75%, if I heard you correctly, in Q3, are you able to actually parse out how much of that is coming from legacy? Because you are beginning to see some initial revenues, I think you said, from the equipment that was installed over the last, call it, six quarters or so.

Any color on how much of that is coming from, if you will, the legacy hardware in the field?

John Lee

Jim. I think what we said in the prepared remarks, we said in Q3, chemistry revenue organically grew about 26% year-over-year.

Of that, very little of it is this chemistry from new equipment. That is just starting.

The vast majority of that chemistry growth is from installed equipment that's already out there. I think that our year-over-year growth will be strong as well, and I think as that equipment chemistry does come in with our equipment, and you'll see that percentage grow over time for sure.

Our growth rates for chemistry, we think, will also follow that.

Jim Ricchiuti

Thanks for clarifying that the growth in Chemistry. That makes it a lot clearer.

With respect to the fact that you're essentially out of capacity on the hardware side even though you're expanding, have there been other options for customers that need capacity earlier? Or is this, do you think, more of an industry-wide phenomenon?

John Lee

I think we talk to obviously the whole ecosystem of customers, and I would just say that there are some that are much more aggressive in their expansion, and some that are a little more measured, as you would expect with a large, fast array. I would say that all of them are starting to accelerate.

Whatever their original plan was, they are all starting to accelerate their pace. There are some customers, though, that are making some really big investments, and you probably follow them.

Those are customers that we certainly saw start earlier, but now we see everybody kind of jumping in now.

Jim Ricchiuti

John, any concerns that you see, and a question we get a lot is at what point do we get into an overbuild situation? Clearly, the AI demand is driving this, but as you think about what you're seeing in the market, do you have any concerns?

What signs are you looking for that potentially things are, as you look out into 2027, potentially could get overheated on this side of the business since it is easier to add this kind of capacity?

John Lee

You're right, Jim. It's a little faster to add capacity on the E&P side than the semi side.

I would say this, the things I look at are, when data centers are built, are they turned on? Far, the answer is absolutely yes.

Then certainly if the people building those data centers are making money, and certainly they are. I think those are the kind of signs we see.

We see the same thing. We hear the same things about pushback on data centers, etc.

The demand for the data centers and the ability to make money building those data centers is still very much intact. Those are the things we watch for, Jim, because we've been in semi a long time, you and us both, and we know the cycles change and they change fast.

We've had a long history of being able to react very quickly because we've had to, having lived in semi for 65 or 75 years. Just a final point, our CapEx intensity is still very low, Jim.

We're doing 3% to 5% is our CapEx intensity while we're building a semi fab as well as a chemistry equipment factories. In terms of the financial strength we have, it's still relatively small risk for us.

Jim Ricchiuti

Got it. Thank you.

John Lee

Thanks, Jim.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our sixth question comes from the line of Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho Group.

Vijay Rakesh

Congratulations on a good quarter and guide here. As you look at your semis and E&P, looks like you're growing much much faster than WFE.

It looks like growing almost 40% year-on-year. Given the visibility that you have out to '27, '28, and you mentioned $300 billion WFE, would you expect the growth to kind of track in those same ranges as you go out?

Just wanted to get some more visibility on those two big markets. Thanks.

A quick follow-up.

John Lee

Thanks for the question, Vijay. I think I would comment on this.

When you look at our growth rates in semi for the first four quarters of '26 relative to WFE, you'll see that it took a couple of quarters to rev up. Q3 was the quarter where we started, kind of starting materially exceed WFE.

That's just because it takes time to rev up the entire supply chain. We're kind of in that phase where for MKS, the engine is humming, and we're ready to continue accelerating that build.

For the next several quarters, if not a year or two, we see that we'll continue to have to accelerate this. This is the feedback our customers are giving us.

As we've said in the past, that's usually the time when we overperform and exceed WFE by a large factor. I think that's kind of our expectations.

Then to your point, at some point things flattens and then things comes down. I think that's still far away.

At least that's the customer conversations we're having. You'll start seeing us continue to accelerate our overperformance relative to WFE in the coming quarters.

Vijay Rakesh

Got it. Just a quick one for Ram.

When you look at the gross margin side, just wondering are you seeing any ASP tailwinds on the equipment side or the material Chemistry side given how tight things are, or given how some of the Chemistry costs have gone up, I guess? Are you contemplating any ASP increases into '27, '28?

Thanks.

Ram Mayampurath

Hi. Thanks for the question.

Can you hear me? Yes.

Vijay Rakesh

Yeah.

Ram Mayampurath

There are pockets of inflation that we are seeing. It's not widespread so far, and we always try and balance our cost and price.

Cost is always a reference point for our pricing decisions. It could increase in the second half and into '27, but right now we are seeing certain pockets of inflation.

John Lee

Vijay, it's John. I would say, too, that we've always tried to get value pricing for the technology we bring.

This is an environment where there's a lot more need for that technology, and so we are continuing to do that and to accelerate that value-based pricing.

Vijay Rakesh

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Elizabeth Sun of Citi Group.

Go ahead, please.

Elizabeth Sun

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

I guess my first question is if we look into next year, this year semis and E&P are growing similar rates, for both around 40%. Next year, semis clearly outperforming WFE again.

Just if we think about growth in E&P, are you seeing it's again similar growth with the semi side, or can you outperform or grow slower than the semi side?

John Lee

Good morning, Elizabeth. I would say this: the difference between the semi side and E&P side is that the E&P side has a consumables component to it, which does not grow as fast as a CapEx component, and I think that's just normal.

Whereas the semi side is all CapEx. The expectation would be that the semi side would, as we start accelerating, the supply chain revs up, that should grow faster than E&P, but not necessarily the equipment side of E&P.

As we talked about, the equipment side of E&P is sold out through '27. Now we have lasers in it as well as chemistry equipment.

I think that's the only difference, Elizabeth, I would call out, is a CapEx-only market, semi, and a consumables plus CapEx market in the E&P side, and so the growth rate should track those kinds of businesses.

Elizabeth Sun

Understood. Thanks.

That's helpful. On the supply chain side, obviously you are doing a much better job right now, giving a lot of visibilities to your suppliers.

I'm just curious, are you seeing any supply chain constraint right now for your own, and is this kind of Q4 guide and if we look into the next couple of quarters next year, is your growth kind of supply constrained? Obviously, it's very strong growth, but is anything there is, it's tight constraints, can you do better?

John Lee

I would say this: our supply chain is an incredible group of people that have really stepped up. We just had a supplier day, met with all the key CEOs.

They are all behind us, investing and hiring people. I would say this: there's always a golden screw, something happens, a yield bust happens somewhere further down the supply chain that even our suppliers can't control.

That's happening, but still really relatively in control for us, at least in our supply chain. I would say the revenue and the guidance we're giving is there's very little constraint from our supply chain.

That may change over time, but right now we believe that our supply chain is quite strong, maybe unique in that they have been stepping up and helping us deliver to our customers.

Elizabeth Sun

Great, that's good to hear. Thanks, John.

John Lee

Yep.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Shane Brett of Morgan Stanley.

Go ahead, please.

Shane Brett

On Krish's earlier question on rigid PCB, would you be able to quantify how much of your E&P tools business comes from rigid PCB applications at the moment? As my assumption is that the majority of lasers are for flex.

I'm asking this question because my understanding is that the TAM for rigid is multiples of flex if we do have the capacity to deliver tools. Just how big can this opportunity get for you in '27 and '28?

Thank you.

John Lee

Shane, good question. I think for flex, flex was pretty strong in Q3, but flex has that seasonality to it because of consumer product cycles, we expect it to come down in Q4, kind of a low point Q1 and then goes up in Q2, Q3.

We're seeing that. The guidance for the future, the laser drilling is really rigid.

You're right, the rigid drilling market is multiples times bigger than the flex market, and so that's a huge opportunity for us. As we started this business many years ago and have had some success, but not as much as we'd wanted.

Now the market is giving us this opportunity, and we're working extremely hard, you can imagine, to expand our capacity, expand the supply chain for that particular product line as well. We'll report more on it going forward, and as we said, we expect that to accelerate through 2027.

Shane Brett

That's exciting to hear. For my follow-up, I was going to ask about semi.

If I look at prior cycles, share gains across subsystem players have been more about OEM or customer footprints more than anything. A lot of smaller suppliers haven't been able to keep with the OEMs this year and may have difficulties next year, but you guys have executed, adding a lot of inventory in advance.

Just beyond your end market exposure, do you think your scale and execution has led to share gains this year and can contribute to outgrowth next year as well? I.e., are your OEMs giving you a lot more responsibility given the performance this year?

Thank you.

John Lee

It's a good question. I would say this: yes, OEMs, our customers, are certainly asking everybody, including us, if we can get more, if we can give more and deliver more, and I think in some of those opportunities, they are share gain opportunities.

I would say quantifying it is a little difficult, but I would say it's pretty small in '26 because this is just kind of a recent phenomenon. We'll see in '27 if that becomes more material.

The only thing we've talked about is laser drilling for sure, but in semi, I think that could be a more interesting number in '27. I think size does matter now.

I think even we as well as our customers all think about our supply chains and their ability to scale. As I said earlier in the remarks, we've never asked the industry to scale by $50 billion in one year, in order to do that, you have to have companies that can actually make those kinds of investments and in inventory and factories.

Fortunately, MKS has the financial strength to do that, and we are doing that. You saw us taking a lot of inventory very quickly.

You've heard us talking about building the factories. I think when you're trying to grow at this kind of scale, $50 billion a year, you have to be big, and so if you're not or not willing to spend on those investments, then I think you'll get left behind for sure.

Shane Brett

Great. Thank you.

John Lee

Thanks, Shane.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Wells Fargo, Joe Quatrochi.

Please go ahead.

Joe Quatrochi

Thanks for taking the question. Maybe on the gross margin side, can you quantify just the impacts within the guidance that's related to the chemical equipment mix and capacity investments that you're making?

Then historically, you guys have been kind of incremental gross margin at around 50%, but given that chemicals continues to increase in mix, why should we not think about that being potentially higher?

Ram Mayampurath

Hi, Joe. Let me talk about near-term versus longer-term.

In the near term, it is a mix between investments we need to make and the mix impact from the ramping chemistry equipment sales. As we have said before, both these will turn to tailwinds, in the longer term, to your second question, gross margin could be higher than 50% increment on incremental sales, and we'll talk more about that again on the Investor Day.

In the near term, we have ongoing programs to offset most of that. In 2027, there will be a meaningful impact, especially from accelerating chemistry equipment.

Investments step-up happened in Q2, and now we'll stay at these levels. There won't be much incremental investments for building manufacturing capabilities into 2027.

It'll stay at these levels through most of 2027, but you will see some incremental impact from chemistry equipment accelerating sales. We have a path to higher gross margin beyond that.

We'll get to the puts and takes of that again in the Investor Day, but to your question, in the short term, we will maintain that 50% incremental gross margin on sales. In the longer term, it can be higher than 50%.

I'll also say that we are making great progress in our operating margin. Operating margin is well above the 40% we have talked about driving scale, and as that top line continues to grow, we'll drive more scale for OpEx.

Joe Quatrochi

Thanks for that. Then you guys announced a $500 million share repo authorization.

Historically, MKS hasn't really been a big participant in share repurchase, maybe can you talk about just the focus of excess cash flow for share repo versus debt reduction?

Ram Mayampurath

Sure. We welcome that authorization, the $500 million authorization.

This gives us more optionality and flexibility. As you noted, we are moving to a new phase now.

The balance sheet is strong, and that has happened mostly because of the cash flow we are generating and the disciplined approach to managing debt. We have stayed focused on that for several quarters now, and we're moving to a phase where our balance sheet is now strong, and the growth we see ahead will further strengthen our cash position.

Making investments necessary to support organic growth and managing our debt will remain top priorities, but we'll also actively look at opportunistic buyback going forward.

Joe Quatrochi

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of James [Faucette?]

from Goldman Sachs. Go ahead, please.

]

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

I was wondering if you could maybe just comment on the outlook for 2027 for WFE up 35% or so. Clearly you're not supply constrained, but I'm wondering if some of your peers are to a point where you see any problems with the industry actually achieving that from a supply perspective?

I guess, the question is, do you think there's a point in time where your own shipments could get impacted because of supply constraints from others that are also selling into your customers?

John Lee

Jim, it's John. I'll take a crack at it, but I think that's logical.

I think what you say is logical. I think for our customers to build a whole tool, they need all the parts, right?

If someone else can't deliver it's a very critical part that we don't make, let's say, that will certainly constrain us for sure. That's really an industry commentary, right?

I think, just as an anecdote for sure, you know as well as we do, when we came into '26, we thought $135 billion was going to be awesome, right, from $115 billion WFE. Then that went to 145 and 155, and now people are talking about 160.

What that says is everybody in the industry, everybody making all the parts was able to come through. I think we'll see what happens, but certainly increasing another $40 or $50 billion will be a challenge.

I think we are certainly going to be ahead of that, and I think many of our peers will try to do the same.

]

That's helpful. Thank you, John.

Then maybe on the gross margin side, I know this may be something you cover at the Investor Day in a month or so, but can you maybe kind of comment on your ability to drive any kind of like-for-like pricing resets as we head into the calendar year 2027? What that can actually contribute to some gross margin uplift beyond the factors you've already talked about?

John Lee

I think, as I said, we are continuously looking at getting value pricing for what we deliver. In those discussions, I would just comment it's an environment where it's a little more conducive to those discussions just because everybody understands constraints, everybody understands that inflation is happening, and everybody understands that those suppliers that can deliver, that's another leg of value beyond the technology, right?

If a supplier can deliver, that is very valuable to our customers, and so that gives us another leg up in terms of being able to have those pricing discussions.

]

Thank you.

John Lee

Thanks, Jim.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our last question comes from the line of Michael from Bank of America.

Michael

Hi, thanks so much for taking my question. My first question is just on the competitive landscape.

Particularly in China, are you seeing any meaningful domestic competitors from China whether in Chemistry equipment or laser drilling systems? I know in some cases these are probably customers as well, but are you seeing these customers more when you attempt to qualify at some of the local customers there?

Also on the Chemistry side, too, has there been any sort of change in the competitive dynamics related to the Chemistry consumable landscape within China as well? Thank you.

John Lee

Mike, I would say that for Chemistry equipment, we provide the industry-leading equipment that enables HDI and MLB processing. There are always competitors in China and in other countries as well, but I would say, when you're pushing technology, you kind of need the most advanced tools.

I think our position in Chemistry equipment is very very strong. With laser drilling, as we talked about, our market share had been very little, very small in the past.

Now, while the technology has been qualified, the volume wasn't there until now. Again, this was a industry constraint, challenge that we are benefiting from, and we're going to try to take as much share as we can.

That's really more a commentary on the industry rather than a China-specific competitor or a non-China-specific competitor. Then in terms of Chemistry, I would say, the same thing is happening.

The chemistry needs to be better, needs to be more innovation in it, and those competitors are usually in other countries: US competitors, Japanese competitors, etc., the highly technological competitors. Many of our competitors in China in the past have been more on cost, competing on cost, and so as technology evolves, and that's our strategy, right, which is to be in markets where technology continuously evolves, therefore, we are always concerned about competitors, but really it's about innovation competitors at this point.

Michael

Great, thank you. I think you mentioned an important pulsed DC power design win for pretty significant conductor etch application.

Could you talk about is this a share gain at an existing customer or new customer? How do we think about the content on a dollars per tool basis maybe relative to something like your standard RF power product?

John Lee

Thanks for the question. There's an inflection going on in conductor etch using something called pulsed DC, and that's an opportunity, right?

Anytime technology changes and inflections occur, and we've been using and doing pulsed DC in dielectric etch, which has been our strength. We usually don't talk about design wins until after we've won, and that's why we're calling this one out.

Obviously there are not a lot of potential customers there. It's a customer of ours for other products, but this particular application is something we were not in and is displacing the incumbent.

I'm not going to get into dollar terms, but I would say this: we called it out because we believe it will be significant in the future, but hopefully it's just the beginning of the use of our technology, our pulsed DC technology, in the conductor application. That's probably all I'd add to it, Michael.

Operator

Thank you very much. There are no further question at this time.

I will now hand the call back over to John Lee for any closing remarks. Go ahead, please.

John Lee

Yes, thank you. Thank you all for joining the call.

As you can see from our results and Q4 outlook, MKS continues to gain momentum. The strength of our business model is driving profitable growth at scale.

The midpoint of our Q4 guidance suggests more than 85% growth in EPS this year, and looking out further, our order growth and future design wins point to new opportunities across our semiconductor and electronics and packaging businesses. We believe we have a unique position across both markets, and this positions us to play a foundational role in enabling advanced electronics in the AI era.

Our balance sheet and cash generation are strong, and we just announced a new $500 million share repurchase program. Suffice to say, we're excited about the future and look forward to sharing much more with you at our Investor Day in New York City on December 14th.

Thanks, everyone, for joining today. Operator, you may now close the call.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participation.

You may now disconnect.