PrairieSky Royalty Ltd

PrairieSky Royalty Ltd

21.00
EUR
0.00
(0.00%)
0.67EPS
29.44P/E
4.56BMarket Cap
Oct 26Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 10, 2026

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to PrairieSky Royalty Limited Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2025 Financial Results Conference Call.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.

To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one-one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.

Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, Mr.

Andrew Phillips, President and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Andrew Phillips

Thank you, Operator, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for dialing in to the PrairieSky Year-End 2025 conference call. On the call from PSK are Pam Kazeil, CFO; Dan Bertram, CCO; and Mike Murphy, VP Geosciences and Capital Markets; as well as myself, Andrew Phillips.

Before we begin, there's certain forward-looking information and statements in our commentary today, I would ask listeners and investors to review the forward-looking statements qualifier in our press release and MD&A, which can be found on our website. 2025 was a successful year for PSK on all fronts.

We achieved 6% oil growth over the year, reaching a record 13,940 royalty oil barrels per day. We expect further records in 2026.

Our PDP reserves grew alongside our oil production, at over 7% year-over-year. Leasing activity remained robust.

The company entered into 189 lease arrangements with 90 distinct counterparties. Leasing continues this year at a similar pace.

On the capital allocation front, we executed on $100 million of acquisitions with excellent projected returns. In addition, we canceled 2.6% of the outstanding shares of PrairieSky, while paying $243.4 million in dividends.

Looking into 2026, the team will continue to focus on leasing our leading undeveloped land base to qualified counterparties across the basin. Over the year, numerous discoveries and pool extensions were found across our extensive portfolio, with decades of remaining inventory on some of North America's most economic plays.

With 98% operating margins and unmatched duration, we're in a position to provide strong returns to our owners in the coming years. We're pleased to announce a 2% increase to our annual dividend to $1.06 per share per year, and our first quarterly dividend will be 26.5 cents, effective March 31st, 2026.

I will now turn the call over to Mike to further discuss activity on our lands.

Mike Murphy

Thanks, Andrew. 2025 drilling activity was strong for PrairieSky, with an estimated $2 billion of gross third-party capital spent on our lands.

This represents an estimated 8.3% of total industry conventional capex in the basin, and this is up from 6.9% in 2024. Activity was especially strong in our key oil growth plays, including Clearwater spuds up 9% year-over-year, Mannville Stack up 11%, and Duvernay up 67%.

Multilaterals continue to drive increased productivity per well, with 80 multilat spuds in Q4 and 285 spuds in all of 2025, representing 40% of all drilling activity on PSK lands, up from 36% in 2024. We now estimate half of our Clearwater volumes are under waterflood support, providing for a highly sustainable, low-decline production base.

Improved recovery contributed to a 42% increase in Clearwater 2P reserve volumes year-over-year. Clearwater royalty oil production has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 20% since 2022, and we expect double-digit growth from the play again in 2026.

In the Duvernay, royalty production increased 90% year-over-year, with growth primarily attributed to activity in the West Shale Basin. With sizable third-party operator budgets in this part of the play this year, we expect the Duvernay to once again represent the fastest-growing play for PrairieSky in 2026.

I'll pass it over to Pam to discuss the financials.

Pamela Kazeil

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone.

PrairieSky's 2025 oil royalty production reached a record annual average of 13,940 barrels per day, a 6% increase over 2024, with Q4 volumes averaging 13,750 barrels per day. Growth in oil royalty production was focused in the Clearwater, Mannville Stack, and Duvernay oil plays, which now represent 29% of our oil royalty production, up from 25% in the prior year.

We also achieved 17% growth in NGL royalty production in Q4, with production averaging 2,915 barrels per day. This growth was driven by Duvernay and Montney volumes, and positively impacted our NGL realized pricing, as pentanes and condensate made up approximately 35% or over 1,000 barrels per day of these volumes.

With a strong fourth quarter, NGL royalty production grew 5% year-over-year. Total royalty production was 64% liquids for the year.

Royalty revenue totaled $102.9 million in the quarter and $441.7 million for the year, which was 94% liquids. Other revenues added an incremental $8.8 million in the quarter and $36.5 million for the year, driven by bonus consideration of $22.6 million.

During the quarter, PrairieSky settled the deferred share units for directors who retired last year of $7.2 million. Directors had until December 15th, 2025 to exercise their DSUs.

Funds from operations totaled $80.5 million or 35 cents per share in the quarter, and $353 million or $1.50 per share for 2025. Looking forward, PrairieSky's 2026 annual pricing sensitivities, which are all net of G&A and taxes, are as follows: a $5 per barrel change in US dollar WTI would increase or decrease funds from operations approximately $24.5 million; a $1 US change in the light or heavy oil differential will increase or decrease funds from operations approximately $5.5 million; a 25-cent per Mcf change in AECO would increase or decrease funds from operations approximately $4 million; and a 1-cent change in the US to Canadian FX rate would increase or decrease funds from operations approximately $4 million.

Entering 2026, we have tax pools of $1.18 billion to shelter future taxability at approximately 10% per year. This means that in 2026, the first $118 million of cash flow is tax-free, with incremental cash flow taxed at 23.5%.

We've prepared our 2025 US tax information, and our 2025 dividends will be a 44% return of capital for US investors. This information can be found on our website.

We will now turn it over to the moderator to proceed with the Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, to ask a question at this time, you will need to press star one-one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

To withdraw your question, simply press star one-one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.

Our first question coming from the line of Michael Harvey with RBC Capital Markets.

Michael Harvey

Sure. Good morning, guys.

Just a couple of quick ones. First, on the West Shale Duvernay, volumes almost doubled this year.

Looks like this year you could be in a position where you kind of get broadly similar growth percentage-wise numbers. Just wondering if you would generally agree with that or take another view.

Then second, on the return of capital program, if you can just remind us the philosophy on the buyback, how sensitive is it to your share price, or is it just more of a sweep if there's looking to be excess cash at the end of a particular quarter?

Andrew Phillips

Good morning, Mike, and thanks for the questions. On the Duvernay, we don't obviously provide specific guidance for plays or guidance in general, but there will be strong growth associated with the Duvernay.

I think one of the things you'll see is a little bit more volatility in terms of the actual production volumes, given that in Q3, we saw a substantial pad that came on, and we had a big bump in our volumes. I think overall, over the year, you'll get some significant growth out of that.

I don't know that it'll be just under 100% growth this year, but it will be very strong growth, and it really depends on when those volumes actually come on, how they're staggered throughout the year. Then on the return of capital, we obviously have the dividend, which we increased a couple percent.

Then on the buyback, we will buy back stock this year. We have a buyback in place currently, and when we think about the business and we look at kind of terminal values, etc., we come to a share price that's a multiple of our current share price.

We believe there's good value anywhere in these ranges. We will be active buying back shares when we come out of blackout.

Michael Harvey

Great. Thanks, Andrew.

Andrew Phillips

Thanks. Have a great day.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Jamie Kubik with CIBC.

Your line is now open.

Jamie Kubik

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

Can you just talk a little bit about the trend that we saw in the quarter with respect to oil volumes checking back a little bit, and how we should think about the profile for PrairieSky in 2026? Then lastly, can you just talk a little bit about the average royalty rate being drilled in the profile right now and what that might mean for 2026 and onwards?

Thanks.

Andrew Phillips

You bet, Jamie. On the first question on the trending, again, you saw that big pad come on in Q3, we had a substantial spike in our volumes, and so we were well ahead of our own internal estimates and analyst estimates, and then, of course, those wells come on with a very high decline.

You saw those declines in Q4. We have a number of new pads coming on throughout the year in 2026, you will see those kind of a little more volatility, I guess, in the volumes, but I think on average, we'll see similar growth rates.

On the trending, I guess that's just one thing to expect. In the past, if you go back three years, you've seen very rateable growth, mostly due to very kind of predictable pads coming on throughout the Clearwater and the Mannville Stack and at very predictable volumes, and then with the Duvernay adding to that and being a big part of the growth, you get these very substantial volume spikes and then some substantial declines, of course, that come alongside with it.

Think you'll see volatility, but in the end, it's a good news story, because it'll smooth out over the year. What was the second question again?

Operator

On the average royalty.

Andrew Phillips

Oh, yeah. On the average royalty rate, it's down 0.2%, I think, on the wells spud in Q4.

We do expect some volatility in that as well, but as per usual, I think it'll kind of average north of 6% throughout the year. We just don't know exactly how that'll come on, and it depends on the seasonality of drilling and where those wells are drilled.

With some of the longer laterals you're seeing in the Duvernay, they're slightly lower, but again, we have a high royalty rate there, those should come on at slightly higher royalties. Then the Viking, of course, in Q3 will add to that, when they're mostly 17.5% royalties.

Again, I think you can expect similar average royalty rates to 2025.

Jamie Kubik

Perfect. Thanks.

Could you also talk a little bit about the outlook perhaps that you might have for the Mannville Stack and the Basal Quartz for 2026? Obviously, good growth in the Duvernay and Clearwater in 2025.

Can you just talk a little bit about maybe what has you excited in the Mannville Stack and Basal Quartz? Thanks.

Andrew Phillips

You bet. In the Mannville Stack, we were about 200 net royalty barrels in 2022.

That's grown all the way to just under 1,000 net royalty barrels. We are seeing very robust programs throughout that area from a number of privates, including the lineup and Caltex Trilogy, as well as Canadian Natural Resources has licensed a number of wells on our lands that haven't come on yet.

We are expecting pretty strong growth in the Mannville throughout the year. Don't know exactly what that number looks like, but it'll be substantial.

Then the Basal Quartz, for the first time, we added it as a segregated play in our corporate presentation, and you can see the volumes have been roughly flat. We have done a number of acquisitions, just given the really high quality operator that we're dealing with there, as well as the robust economics, and just given the gas processing plants that they've acquired throughout the area, they have a lot of excess capacity now and have a very strong program coming out of break-up.

We're expecting some pretty strong growth from that play as well. It'll certainly be in the double digits, but don't know exactly what that'll look like.

That's a light oil play with liquids-rich gas, so that's a play that we think will show growth over the next five years.

Jamie Kubik

'Kay, thanks for the color. That's all for me.

Thank you.

Andrew Phillips

Appreciate the questions, Jamie.

Operator

Thank you. Now, I'm showing no further questions in queue at this time.

I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Andrew Phillips for any closing remarks.

Andrew Phillips

Thank you very much, everyone, for dialing in to the PrairieSky year-end and conference call, and please feel free to call Pam, Mike, or myself with any questions you have, and have a great day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.