Greencoat Renewables PLC

Greencoat Renewables PLC

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 5, 2026

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Greencoat Renewables 2025 Full Year Results and Capital Allocation Update. I will now hand over to Paul O'Donnell.

Please go ahead.

Paul O'Donnell

Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the 2026 Greencoat Renewables results. We've had a busier than usual set of announcements this morning, as I'm sure you've noticed, where alongside our full-year results, this has also been accompanied by a share buyback announcement, and in addition to that, we've announced the investment into a new green energy data center platform, which we've launched.

What we'd like to do this morning is to initially present you with an overview of the full-year results. We'll then move on and provide some context into our updated capital allocation strategy, and then we'll proceed to give you some further background and details on some of the value-accretive growth initiatives that we've announced this morning, including the data center platform.

With that, I'll hand it over to Bertrand to take us through both the 2025 financial results and to give us some context on the capital allocation. Thanks, Bertrand.

Bertrand Gautier

Thanks, Paul. Good morning, all.

Let's dive straight into the financial performance for the business for 2025 on slide 5. We are presenting here the consolidated cash P&L for the group and its consolidated balance sheet.

As we discussed previously, 2025 have suffered from low generation. Over 70% was driven by low wind speed.

H1 was particularly affected with -15%, and H2 partially recovering at -6% versus budget. In terms of revenue, 2025 was €61 million down versus '24.

Three drivers, a number of those were expecting/plan: -€34 million due to evolution of the geographical and tariff mix—as an example, German offshore transitioning out from his high tariff; -€21 million from nonrecurring compensation revenue for 2023 captured in 2024; and some change of perimeter given the sale of the Irish portfolio asset in '25. However, revenue remain highly contracted with more than 80%.

In appendix, you will see a detailed breakdown of the revenue mix. Ireland, which is 95% contracted, remain our largest market, accounting for more than 50% of our revenues, while Spain and Sweden, which are pure merchant market we're operating in, accounting only for 7% of the revenue.

In spite of low generation, the net cash generation remained solid with €115 million, underpinning a 1.5x net dividend cover. Finally, EBITDA stood at €158 million.

On slide 7—slide 6, sorry—three key messages here. One, you can see the profile of the dividend cover that the existing portfolio is able to sustain.

As you can see on the right of the table, averaging 1.6x over the next five years. You may ask, and I'm sure some question might come from the drop in 2026 at 1.2x.

The drop reflects the low-price future as of December. Since then, we all picked up that power price curve certainly for '26 are steeply going up with what is happening in the Middle East, and not reflecting into those metrics.

Second message is the level of contracted revenue of the portfolio: 76% over the next five years and well within our strategy targets. The third point to indicate is that the portfolio is generating circa €600 million of cash pre-dividend payment over the next five years.

Moving on to slide 7. Here, we are showing the NAV bridge from December '24 to December '25.

Again, as we've communicated previously, NAV per share declined 9.9%, or 10.5 cents over the period, mostly driven by, one, a revision of the P50 of the portfolio, where we completed our review for more than half of the portfolio generation volume. This resulted into a negative 5.7 cents NAV impact.

Second, the power price short-term decline I referred to, which resulted in 4.3 cents per share. In spite of the low generation volume-wise, cash yield was 11% on closing NAV, underpinning the 1.6x gross cash dividend cover.

Moving to slide 8. Slide 8 breaks down the capital allocation for the business in '25.

As you can see on the left inside of the slide, gross generation was €122 million, supplemented by €137 million of cash proceeds from the Irish portfolio, which crystallize in 2025, which we sold at 4% premium to NAV. This funded, one, a €76 million dividend, which was 6.9 cents yield on NAV, or 9.9 yield on share price at December; two, a debt reduction of €149 million; and three, the residual increasing cash balances by €31 million.

In parallel, we completed the acquisition of Andella, which was our last straightforward acquisition, a Spanish wind farm for €91 million, which was fully funded by debt. As Paul indicated, we'll talk later about our capital allocation strategy for '26 and beyond, as we are taking immediate steps to materially increase return for shareholders.

Next slide, slide 9. It's about debt and debt structure.

The group continued to benefit from a highly cost-effective debt structure. The blended cost of debt is 3.4% as we speak.

Interestingly, we refinance our October '25 term loan of €275 million, which was extended to 2030, five-year ahead, at a 3.9% fixed rate. This is well below our long-term normalized target of 4.7%, and the debt is largely fixed rate at 89%.

Next maturity, you can see the maturity profile is a bar chart, next maturity of €275 million is coming due in March '27. As we executed in '25, we are engaging with our banks to roll over for a five-year further maturity.

Finally, of the cash balance of €138 million, €90 million is unrestricted, meaning available on short notice. The residual amount, which we qualify as restricted cash, is held in JV structure with specific distribution cycles, available cash, but at different point in time.

Now, let's move looking forward on the capital allocation and strategic framework section on slide 11. During '25, the board and we as management challenged ourselves hard to revisit our strategy and our capital allocation framework.

There were two main questions we asked ourselves. On one hand, how can we respond from a business perspective to the challenging market environment the asset class and ourselves have been facing?

On the other hand, how can we capitalize on our market position and our €2.1 billion portfolio to materially increase the return and the cash the business can generate over the mid to long-term without compromising on its risk profile? I'm going to take you through to our plan.

Before doing this, there are three strategic goals we wanted to achieve. One, narrow the discount to NAV with an immediate actions of scale.

Two, deploy capital into value-accretive growth opportunities. I think it's important to outline what do we mean when we talk about growth.

We are looking at ways to increase the return on equity the business generates, and it's all about growth of the EPS de facto. Third, maintain an attractive dividend.

Let's move to slide 12 to see how does it translate into practice. From this point on, I will need to put a disclaimer up.

We appreciate there is a lot we wanted to take you through. Let me first take an helicopter view of what we want to achieve.

The strategy we define or set to ourselves is a two-pronged approach. One is over the next 12 months, it is about prioritizing return of capital to shareholders with the immediate launch of a buyback program and deleveraging of scale.

In parallel to this, kicking off a disposal program of €300 million to €400 million to supplement organic cash. Two, in parallel to this, it positions the business to be able to invest into value-accretive opportunities, which are centered across three streams delivering premium return to our current return on equity, which is currently sitting at 9% plus on NAV, and to be premium returns to buyback.

The capital deployment on those four to six initiatives will be at a later stage in the five-year plan. What I'm planning to do next over the next four slides is describe to you what each of our initiatives entail, touch upon the returns each of those initiatives will deliver, and give you an indication of the capital we are planning to allocate to each, and critically, how we have planned to self-fund those.

Moving to next slide. Let me take you through the first dimension of our capital allocation, three streams here.

One, buyback: so €100 million program, which would be close to 15% of our outstanding shares. This is starting now, and as you've picked up in the announcement, and it's going to be funded by organic cash to start with.

Two, deleveraging: we signaled that our intention was to reduce gearing to circa 45% from current 52%. Our plan is to accelerate this so that in the course of 2027, we will hit this level.

Question you might ask is why mid-40s level? This is to give us flexibility in terms of future investments, as well as further strengthening the resilience of our dividend cover.

The velocity to deliver those two initiatives is linked to our timetable to deliver our phase one disposal program. We'll come back to this.

Which focus on merchant assets and aims at releasing €300 million to €400 million of proceeds. Now, it's all about execution.

We have a good track record in terms of executing with over €300 million of disposal at premium to NAV across two geographies. I think it's quite helpful in a current market dynamic, which remain, I would say, challenging M&A market, that we have a pan-European portfolio, we are not dependent on a single geography dynamic.

For information, we have already kicked off this, and we'll keep you update on progress. The last stream, it's continue to deliver dividend, which we see as currently adequate at 7% dividend yield on NAV, or 10% on share price.

Before I introduce each of the three value-accretive growth initiatives you see on the slide, I think it's useful to say that those opportunities have been on our radar for a while, and we are capitalizing either from the embedded value of the existing portfolio or from the relationships and the leading market position we have in the Irish market. Those three opportunities are pieces of the same puzzle, as well as our existing portfolio.

If you think about it, the energy transition ecosystem has been a puzzle which became more complex. As a business, we like complexity because it creates premium return opportunities.

Now, we strongly believe it is the time to position ourselves to take benefit from the value accretion we see by putting those pieces together. In concrete terms, it's boost the return on equities that the business can deliver without compromising on the risk profile.

Now, three sets of initiatives you see here, and Paul is going to touch upon in more detail, but to give you some kind of description on what they are: First one is hybridization strategy, something we talked about in the past. This is about as simple as adding to our wind sites battery and/or solar capacity.

This allows us to capture development premium, but on asset with reduced CapEx and derisk because we know those assets and they've already been operating. We can accelerate the development cycle as we've benefited from the existing grid infrastructure.

We believe that this generates IRR in excess of 13%, or return on equity 500 basis points above our current portfolio. Third piece: green digital infrastructure.

You might have picked up this morning that GRP has announced the launch of a digital platform, 50% co-owned by GRP. This is building on the convergence of digital and power, where power is an absolute requirement to unlock data center sites with a green energy solution behind them.

This is where GRP comes in. This will be a capital-light model for GRP, where the platform will develop sites and equipped them with corporate PPA.

The return will be in excess of 3x or IRR of 40% up. The last piece of the puzzle is invested into new assets, but secure access to them at an earlier stage.

This piece fits very well with a green digital infra play as this enabled GRP to generate superior returns on renewable assets by linking them to the data centers' hungry need for green power. In a nutshell, this will allow us to capture in excess of 200 basis points return to our current asset profile by capturing development premium, having secure premium pricing for those corporate PPAs.

You've picked up that we have contracted those and our existing portfolio at premium pricing to what prevalent market price. Some of those corporate PPAs, we could also link them, in addition to those new asset, into our existing or collocated sites.

Again, Paul will give you more flavor of what it means. Next slide, please.

Slide 15. From a business perspective, going beyond the strategic and turns this into reality, what was critical to us was to ensure that we could execute our plan on a self-funded basis.

If the equity capital market reopens, this would be a luxury problem as we can see more opportunities that we are planning to execute upon. The sources and uses table on the right shows you the quantum of capital we are planning to allocate to each of those initiatives over the five next five years.

You see on the left side of the slide the timeline of the capital deployment by initiative. As I told you, the buyback and deleveraging are concentrating over the next 12 to 18 months.

The value-accretive growth initiatives will deploy capital in scale as of 2028-2029, which correspond to their development and build cycle. Whilst in the short term, we are building the position in those areas at moderate development cost.

From a source of capital, the left column in the sources and uses table, the funding will be coming from organic cash and from a two-phase disposal program. Phase one, €300 million to €400 million of disposal aiming at deleveraging and scaling the buyback.

Phase two, similar amount, which has been labeled recycling in purpose as it is to reinvest into higher return on equity asset. The critical foundation of the funding plan are, one, it to be self-funded, and two, to retain a moderate gearing level of 45%.

To close off on this overview, page 16, those are showing you what are the way we see the KPI of success to reposition the portfolio so that we are boosting the return on equity of the business by more than 200 bps on a self-funded basis by rotating portion of our assets and to increase our long-term contracted revenue mix, too, and diversify the revenue mix at the same time. This will translate into cash generation per share increasing by more than 40% versus status quo.

With this in mind, I'm passing it over to Paul, who will focus on the first steps we have taken in our value-accretive growth initiatives.

Paul O'Donnell

Thank you, Bertrand. Just as we turn into this next section and just to kind of set the scene again as Bertrand did through the understanding the different value-accretive options we have, there are three new developments to discuss here across hybridization, green energy data centers, and then long-term value-accretive development opportunities.

We see significant synergies across the three strategies, and we believe that this growth story links to exactly where today the Irish market is going, but more broadly where the European energy market will move to over the next number of years. As I turn to slide 18, I'd like to start off by just giving a bit of context against the hybridization strategy we are now implementing.

For those less familiar with the term or with what the opportunity is, really this is the collocation of battery and solar into our existing portfolio. We've come to this opportunity after having spent the last three years owning and operating our own battery storage assets in Ireland, and then really filtering through our full portfolio to identify 10 new sites.

From a team perspective at Schroders Greencoat here, we have a very strategic partnership with the Chinese battery technology company CATL, which we think gives us a very strong opportunity to lead the way particularly in the storage space. As Bertrand touched upon, we're taking a measured step in terms of how we want to unlock this opportunity, the focus initially will be around development capital.

Then finally, again, the concept of value-accretive growth, we see the incremental returns on that we're able to invest into offering about 13% unlevered IRR, premium returns and unlocking the value in our portfolio. As we turn the page to slide 19, why Ireland, and why is the opportunity now?

I think firstly, what we see today in Ireland is there is the opportunity to unlock incremental revenues by combining storage, wind, and solar together. We're seeing the opportunity to trade power and storage today.

We see the balancing market opening up, and we see over time the opportunity now to potentially use the existing grid capacity that's not currently being used across wind and solar and optimize that grid. From a synergy perspective and as we go to touch on data centers in a minute, one of the key opportunities also is that by adding new capacity to our existing sites, that will support the additionality requirements that corporates will have by ensuring there's new investment and it's unlocking new capacity onto the grid.

Then finally, we own our own sites today. We have permanent access to the grid there, and we have accelerated development timetables.

All of this is about transforming our assets into higher-value collocated battery or storage sites with minimal additional risk. What have we learned, I guess, over the last three to four years?

You see on slide 20 the case study at Killala. We took the decision to make the investment in 2019, and then over the following two to three years, we brought the project through late-stage development, construction, and into full operational phase.

The project has worked very well from a learning perspective. You can see the very attractive cash yields we've had in the last three years, delivering above-expected project investment levels and double-digit unlevered IRRs.

Most importantly, we've seen how the trading strategy and how those different incremental revenues work when it sits alongside a wind farm and is able to play in a more active traded power market, which is how we see the power markets moving to today in Ireland. That investment, as we turn the page, is really what's underpinned our decision to really step forward and to unlock the development opportunities that we see across our own assets.

You can see a pipeline of roughly 100—sorry, 330, 340 megawatts that we see can be unlocked from our own portfolio. Approximately 175 megawatts of this relates to collocating storage on our wind sites, and then about 160 megawatts of that relates to collocating solar on our existing sites.

Again, to visualize that, what we are going to be doing is securing land close to our existing sites, taking those projects through the development phase, ensuring we can get access to the grid, and securing a route-to-market for those projects. We've given two examples on the right-hand side of sort of example projects that we are considering today.

Project A refers to what we call a long-duration storage, and so really this is about starting to solve the grid's needs for longer storage when the wind doesn't blow or the sun doesn't shine. We see Ireland moving quickly to unlock that market, given the high levels of renewable penetration, and what that really means is having batteries that can run for six to eight hours as opposed to the historical one to two hours.

In this case, we are busy unlocking this site at the moment, and we see roughly speaking €750,000 to develop the project and get that ready for full investment. In project B, what we are doing is essentially mixing a combination of solar and storage into an existing wind site.

Again, we have spare grid capacity at the substation, we have very strong access to land in the area, and we believe the policy is moving to support the sharing of grid over the medium term. The concept of developing this type of project now for such a case that emerges in the next one to two years will allow us to make that full investment decision, and again, to build a more diversified revenue stack across wind, solar, and BESS.

When you combine all this together, it combines to about €240 million of capital investment between debt and equity. As Bertrand talked about, we really see that being relevant towards the back end of the decade, whereas the next two years is really all about delivery and execution of these development sites.

Turning then to slide 22, and I guess what's a pretty significant announcement for us today, we're really excited and pleased to launch our new green digital infrastructure platform. This platform has been set up initially in Ireland and is essentially focused on powered land strategy to unlock sites for the hyperscalers and leverage the market dynamic that is there, where there's a need for renewable assets to power these data centers.

The platform will be a standalone business with its own management team and one that we will co-fund alongside our private market colleagues in Schroders Greencoat. We've made our first acquisition—I'll touch on that in a second—and we see this as a blueprint for how grid and customers are going to require data centers to be unlocked for them.

As I'll touch upon in a minute, I think the policy setup in Ireland today has made it clear that renewables and digital will work hand in hand, and that without having access to significant amounts of renewables, it won't be possible to deliver that digital growth. I think finally, as Bertrand touched upon, we are applying a capital-light model.

Today, our business is not about building and owning data centers, but it's about creating the value that will be in the development phase of these projects and capturing the ancillary benefit of delivering the renewables that these projects will also need. Turning therefore to slide 23, and just to give a bit of further context on the market.

The Irish market is unique in terms of its development stage and how developed it is in the European context, and Ireland is the first European market to address the data center growth in a power-constrained backdrop. Ireland is unique in terms of the climate it has and its suitability for building data centers.

It is the European headquarters for many of the global technology companies. It has a well-established ecosystem and infrastructure for data centers, and today about 22% of all electricity is used in Ireland to power data centers.

There is, in addition to that, an expectation that there will be significant growth to come over the next 10 years, and that Ireland's renewable energy policy will sit alongside the opportunity to expand the data center sector. The growth is based on policy today that is very clear and will require it to be a power-first solution.

What we mean by that is development is about power, not real estate. The policy that was announced recently in Ireland, the large energy action plan, has now created the certainty that is needed for this type of investment.

Really what that means is that we expect to see system-wide integration and the need for 80% renewable infrastructure to power these data centers, as well as understanding and providing the backup power that will be needed when the sun isn't there or the wind doesn't blow. We see this model solving the twin needs that hyperscalers have, which is having fast access to grid, and also having a decarbonized strategy to power these data centers.

On slide 24, we give a little bit more context as to how the market has changed, and really what I touched upon on the previous page, which was that we see this moving from being a real estate strategy to being an energy and a power strategy. What that means is, in the past, the key development milestones were around securing land, securing access to fiber, and being located close to large population centers.

What we see the next 10 years delivering is that, in addition to that, we will need to have significant access to renewable infrastructure. We will need to be able to connect into parts of the grids that are unconstrained, and there will need to be a deep understanding of energy storage and backup power to support the data centers and to not put further damages or requirements onto the grid.

Greencoat Renewables is very well positioned to play that role of unlocking that value, and not just across our existing portfolio of renewable assets, but also our deep expertise across all parts of the energy transition space. Turning to slide 25, and to give a bit more context on our first project that we've announced this morning.

This is a project called the Drogheda Energy Park, which is located about 40 km north of Dublin. The site today is located on one of Ireland's largest or previous largest industrial sites, which produced both cement and magnesium.

Part of the old industrial framework, large-emission producers, and essentially not part of the future for Ireland's industrial strategy. What this project has done is essentially to be repositioned as a data center, but to use and to benefit from the existing infrastructure that's on-site, i.e., having access to grid, electricity grid, having access to gas grid, and being located right beside the water, being able to positively use the water and from the sea.

The team that we've put in place are there to develop out this site and to bring the project all the way through to ready-to-build stage. It's located in an area that has a mix of hyperscalers and existing digital infrastructure, we see a strong opportunity to partner with the pre-existing digital players and hyperscalers in the market and provide to them not just access to this type of site, but also help to source and secure the renewable power that will be needed for this type of asset.

I think then to link this all back together, and the third part of what Bertrand touched on, which was that on slide 26. As we take this strategy forward, and as we see the data center sites development increase, we see an opportunity to recycle out of some of our more merchant assets and to rotate into more contracted assets at a later stage.

We expect to do so with strong visibility as to who the counterparties could be for those assets. By having a significant data center pipeline, it will be important for us also to have access to new renewable power and to be able to partner with those technology companies at an earlier stage, which should help to both derisk our route-to-market strategy, and by having bilateral strategies with them, allow us to by taking that earlier-stage risk benefit from higher returns.

We see this being a significant opportunity for reinvestment in the medium term, as and when we start to see the data center strategies come online. With that, I might hand back to Bertrand to sum up and look forward to your questions.

Thank you.

Bertrand Gautier

Thanks, Paul. Page 27.

Let me thank you all for listening. We, again, as I said, we appreciate there's a lot to digest in an early morning breakfast.

What I can tell you is that the board, the team, Paul, and I have not left any stone unturned when we embark into this journey more than 12 months ago. We are firmly convinced that we have a solid and clear plan, which redefine the path to share all the value creation.

We're clearly all behind it. We have absolutely clarity of thinking, and we have now 200% focused on execution, because it's all about execution.

With this in mind, let's turn to questions. I suspect you will have some.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and we'll pause for a brief moment.

Thank you. We'll now take our first question from Conor Finn of Barclays.

Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Conor Finn

Morning, guys. Two from me, please.

Firstly, on slide 15, you've outlined a range of sources and uses of cash. If we think about the growth CapEx that's earmarked for hybridization and data centers, if capital availability does become a constraint, should we assume that data centers would take priority in this instance?

Then secondly, in relation to the Drogheda assets specifically, when you look at the market, how many sites are there like this in terms of access to grid, power, planning, certainly planning in place? When you look across, say, maybe potentially competing assets on a similar timeframe, how many other are like this?

Bertrand Gautier

Hi, Conor. Let me take the first one.

If the capital become constrained, I think it's not a matter of quantum, but it's more a matter of timing of this. If it was the case, we have not defined which initiative, because it's a question about capital allocation, we'll see how we can manage this.

This will become a day-to-day management decision. I think, Conor, the key point here is not the quantum so much, but it's the phasing of those and the sequencing of those.

Paul O'Donnell

Conor, the second piece is how many sites are out there. This is where I think we are most excited about what we've been working on the last 12 months.

We believe firmly we are ahead of the market on this. When you look at the people who have sites and have access to sites, there is a need for the skill set that Greencoat Renewables has created today.

We believe that there is a significant opportunity to partner with utilities, with industrial companies, with real estate companies, all of whom have some aspects of what it requires to unlock data center sites, but that the development risk, the knowledge of what the customer is looking for, the access to the renewable power, the ability to source the backup power that's going to be needed, all of that creates a chance for us to build on what Greencoat has always done, which is create partnerships, create winning strategies, both from a capital access perspective, but also from a sourcing of sites perspective. We see, look, Ireland is very clearly in just the small Irish market alone, Ireland is clearly open for business again, and it's clearly there's an appetite there to build a multi-gigawatt data center pipeline.

We don't see a kind of constraint on the growth opportunity that exists here. It's about executing what we've done, bringing the tech companies in as partners, and demonstrating that we can fully derisk these sites and add value not just on our own pipeline, but potentially over time to other partners' pipelines as well who may want to work with us.

Bertrand Gautier

If I may add something. I think as Paul described, the depth of the market is there.

It's a bit like when we were talking about how many wind farm can we access, etc. This is not a shortage of asset.

It's I think what makes me particularly exciting about it when we started to think about data center is, and I cannot emphasize this enough, is the fact that, as the largest access to renewable power, we are solving what is a bottleneck for those big tech companies and which we have already contracted power with. Because of the market position we have in Ireland, I won't be able to tell you the same level of conviction in other market, doesn't mean that those opportunities doesn't exist, but in Ireland particularly, because of what we are, what we have, and what we have access to, this, I would not put at ease, but would facilitate a lot the unlocking for the tech companies the building those data center, which was a constraint and it was constrained.

Paul O'Donnell

Yeah. We could go on this, Conor, but we'd get very excited.

Bertrand Gautier

That's clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Alex Wheeler of RBC.

Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Alex Wheeler

Morning. Thanks for the presentation.

Three from me, please. Just the first one, can you talk about the disposal process, the first phase, and how you see the market for selling assets?

Then I guess on that point as well, should we consider merchant assets as the focus there? If so, is it right to think that the disposals there would have a positive impact on the contracted mix alongside de-gearing?

My second question is on the new investment platform. Can you just give a little bit more detail in terms of the first investment on the journey that project will now go through in terms of the step-by-step?

Then I know you've talked about being capital-light in the next couple of years on that side of things, but could you take more projects into the platform early on? Just a sense of the timing there would be great.

Then a very last one, just on the evolution of demand and pricing. You talk about the opportunity to capture premium pricing on PPAs.

Clearly we've got this big demand growth coming through in Ireland, and I'd be interested to understand how you're thinking about that in terms of the impact that may have on pricing, the market prices overall, and whether we should be thinking about the premium pricing of PPAs being on top of a market where the pricing dynamic is already going to improve. Thank you.

Paul O'Donnell

Thanks, Alex. I'm going to start with just giving you a bit step-by-step on where we are on Drogheda, and then we'll pick up on disposals and back to premium pricing.

The project is well through its development phase. It has secured the land, we own the site.

The project has been in planning for a number of years. It has got full local support, cross-community support, in terms of political, local organizations, council, et cetera, et cetera, and has secured planning from the local council.

It's working its way through what is the higher body of planning approvals at this stage because it is typical for these projects to be taken to a higher body approval for appeal. Our expectation is that once we have that final planning, we then need to secure final access to the grid.

It is a milestone to have full planning before you can get your final grid connection offer. Part of that will then be demonstrating to the grid and the regulator that we have access to the renewable power that will be needed to power that asset, and also having access to standby power generation, which will be required as well when the grid has less power on the system on any given day.

Those are all development stages we need to go through to secure the final stages of the grid, to secure the renewable infrastructure that we will want to use to power that, and to secure some standby generation. We have our own team.

It's not led by Bertrand and myself day-to-day. We've put a very experienced infrastructure team in place and digital team in place that have delivered many infrastructure projects across Ireland to do that for us.

We expect that timetable to take between two to three, two to four years in total. There are some uncertainties as to exactly when the planning piece will come through.

All the way through that, we're working on the tenancy side to make sure the project that we're wanting to deliver is suitable for a large hyperscaler, and that we're designing in line with what their expectations are. Therefore, our base case plan would be then that we sell the project as a ready-to-build, fully developed asset that the hyperscaler or their funders can step in and then own and finance on a long-term basis.

The timetable of that will be somewhere between two to four years. In terms of other assets, there are clearly multiple assets that we can then target that are similar to that, and they will all face similar types of development risks: Can we secure the planning?

Do we think the grid infrastructure is strong enough locally? Do we think the location is the right location relative to where new infrastructure is getting built in Ireland, and are they the right type of locations for hyperscalers?

Today is not about mapping those aspects out. Today is really about just demonstrating Drogheda, getting that to the right phase, and I think we would hope to then come back and be able to continue to demonstrate the growth opportunity over time.

Bertrand Gautier

Let me pick up on the disposal process. It's still a difficult market when you are selling assets.

The M&A dynamic is what it is in the market. Having said that, is to be, how should I say, smart about which asset do you select vis-à-vis the market dynamics, which is the way we've approached our two disposals.

We apply the same recipe, I would say. The other piece of the equation is that we have the luxury of being presents across a number of markets, you are not tied up to the specific constraint or dynamic of a single market.

I would say, and we are quite cautious when we engage in this kind of process. Cannot disclose too much, but we've taken already steps to progress this program.

In terms of the selection of asset, your logic is the same that we applied. We are targeting merchant assets consistent with us focusing on contracted mix, and the mechanical impact, as you pointed out, will be that the contracted mix of the business will continue to go up.

Paul O'Donnell

I think then just to pick up your last point, I think it's what's very interesting about the Irish market is that by essentially having a policy that links renewables to new build of data centers, you're inextricably creating a new demand for renewable energy. It's one of the first markets where we're now seeing an active government auction policy in terms of the different RESS auctions that are happening alongside a very significant demand from corporates to make sure they can roll out their projects.

We believe that creates an environment for premium pricing, less competitive tension in terms of on the downside, and an opportunity to step in a little bit earlier and to capture some of that value that is going to be at play for the tech companies who are going to need this power. Next question?

Operator

Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Kate Nurse of Davy.

Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Kate Nurse

Hi. Good morning.

Two questions for me, please, if that's okay. Just firstly, a follow-up on the green digital infrastructure platform.

Could you talk to us a bit more again about what CapEx-light means exactly? Which elements are you funding versus the hyperscaler tenant?

Then I guess on the flip side, what are the different revenue streams for GRP from a park like this?

Paul O'Donnell

Then

Kate Nurse

my second question is just looking at slide 8. You've helpfully given the dividend cover outlook profile, and if I heard you correctly, this is based off the existing portfolio.

I just wanted to ask what are the moving parts behind this pathway, especially in terms of accelerating assets whose terms covered by 2030? Thank you.

Paul O'Donnell

Kate, just a typical site, we think, depending on its size, the development cost of a site could be anywhere from, say, €25 million to €40 million, by the time you have taken a project, acquired the land, taken the project through planning, deliver the sort of pre-works that will be needed to get access to the grid, put down grid deposits, et cetera, et cetera. All of those are non-CapEx items in my mind associated with the building of the data center, which can run to billions of euros.

When you think about the end-to-end development-phase costs of these type of projects, it's order of magnitude much smaller, and that's why we talk about CapEx-light. Each project will be slightly different.

Some projects will buy the land, some projects we may option the land, some projects we may co-develop with partners, we may not have 100% of the development phase to incur ourselves, but a rule of thumb is, I don't know, €25 million to €40 million as a sort of development phase, including the costs of the team ourselves that we have in place to basically manage that risk, and to essentially bring the tenant and their requirements to the table.

Bertrand Gautier

Good morning, Kate. On slide 8, on the dividend cover, you're correct.

Try to be specific on the fine print of it. This is the existing portfolio excluding the impact of the plan, yes?

This command a longer conversation on how the different bits and pieces move on. If you were to factor phase one execution, which is disposing of the €300 million to €400 million, executing the buyback and the deleveraging, and the first phase of our development moderate investment on the growth opportunities, the dividend cover will be then slightly up in the very short term, because if you target some of those merchant assets, this is the impact of it given low forward pricing in the short term.

If you look over the period, dividend cover is consistent with what you see on the slide, plus or minus 0.1x.

Operator

That's helpful. Thank you.

Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Iain Scouller of Kempen.

Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Iain Scouller

Hi, good morning. Just coming back on the potential sales, where have you actually got to on the sales process, and any specific geographies that you are keen to exit from?

Bertrand Gautier

Good morning, Ian. It's a good question, but I'm a bit restricted with what I can tell you given those are live engagement.

I think the way I will answer to your question is what I said to, I think it was to Alex, is the filter we are applying to select asset we see prone to disposal are assets which are heavily merchant at this point in time. The double benefit is that, one, it's releasing capital—three benefits: one, it's releasing capital; two, it's an active way for us to manage the contracted mix of the portfolio, i.e., increasing the contracted curve; and three, we see that there is a strategic demand from merchant assets coming from strategic player like local utilities, which some of them, and this has been the dynamic underpinning of finish disposal, which have see an appetite, are short on those type of capacity vis-à-vis having their own trading arms.

Iain Scouller

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions online.

I'll now hand over for webcast questions.

Thank you. We do have a few questions that have come in.

Some have already been answered, and I know we're relatively short on time, I'll select some new questions here. Two questions around the buyback.

Firstly, is your buyback dependent on market price, and is there a level where you would redirect that capital to other uses? Then secondly, you're positioning the buyback as a program to reduce the discount to NAV.

Can you provide a bit more detail on how you intend to execute it in terms of expected pace, triggers for acceleration or pause, and how it interacts with your deleveraging objectives?

Bertrand Gautier

Thanks. Let me take this one.

On the mechanics associated to the €100 million, you're correct, this will be the trigger point on pricing will affect how much we are going to deploy. I'm not going to comment on what is the pricing because this is price sensitive vis-à-vis trading.

By regulatory requirement, we are capped to buy up to 25% of the daily volume trade. This is one way to do it on an ongoing basis, which is the first phase of our buyback program, which we are funding, you may have picked up in one of the announcements, we are releasing €25 million of organic cash to kick this off, which means that you are, given the volume traded, it's a four to six months time frame.

In addition to this, we'll supplement and we'll scale to the €100 million on the basis of allocating some of the disposal proceed into the buyback, and could take two forms: either to do it the same way that we've been doing it, or to do it via tender offer whereby you do a much bigger buyback into the market. Decision will be made when we are approaching, and market condition will dictate what it will be.

Very clear. A very specific question here.

2025 was a poor year for generation, why is the dividend cover expected to fall further again down to 1.2 in 2026?

Bertrand Gautier

Yes, it's two aspects. One, you have the full effect of the Irish portfolio disposal, which mechanically have reduced the portfolio cash generation.

Two, this is a reduction of the merchant pricing for '26, which was quite depressed because what has dictated the forecast of 1.2 was predicating on the forward pricing for merchant at end of December, which reach a low point. Since then, I would say pre-Middle East crisis, the pricing in the market was up from a dividend cover perspective, which is further up with what we've noticed.

Okay.

Moving on to batteries. Can you clarify how you intend to generate incremental revenues from the collocated batteries?

Can you give an idea of the revenue stack you expect to capture across ancillary services, arbitrage, capacity?

Paul O'Donnell

Yeah. Today already in our battery in Killala, increasingly trading revenues are becoming a big part of it.

Essentially the ability to store power when power is at low cost at night and then discharge it back during the day at high prices. That market is open, there is a big energy arbitrage opportunity, and we're seeing that come through day by day.

In addition to that, there's opportunities to capture capacity contracts. There's opportunities to play in the auction-based ancillary services contracts, which are opening up on an auction basis, I think as of next year.

Then finally, there's the balancing market revenues to play into as well. There are a much broader set of revenues, I think, that will open up as part of having a mix of combined wind and solar or combines wind and storage or solar and storage.

There's still some policy shifts required and steps required for that all to open up, including the sharing of grid capacity and essentially aspects of that, but that's why we're taking the steps now such that we have a more integrated set of assets as and when we see that policy shift coming there to allow us to access those.

Okay. One final question.

You've outlined several sources of future value creation today, and they appear to materialize progressively. What concrete milestones should investors look for to build confidence in the delivery of this strategic shift?

Paul O'Donnell

Yep. Look, I think each of the business opportunities, I think, is about execution.

If we take Drogheda, we look forward to coming back to the market and talking about the development phase and the journey that we're on against that. That will include each of the development milestones on the project, progress with tenancy, and how we expect the renewable infrastructure to feed into that.

I think first and foremost, it's important that we deliver that sort of story to Drogheda and it's well understood on the value creation by investors. I think beyond that in digital, one could expect that as we see similar opportunistic site opportunities, that we will continue to consider them, and if we can see a similar value arbitrage as we can on Drogheda, that's something we can do to expand the growth of Drogheda and expand the growth of that platform in the Irish market.

On other areas like hybridization, I think, we will be able to again report back on KPIs: sites submitted into planning, other projects ready for planning, pipeline development. I think that will become an increasing part to how we describe the value and the asset management part of what we do day to day.

Then finally, in terms of looking more to the medium term around sort of development opportunities, we think it's a very interesting time in the Irish market right now. There is an opportunity for someone like Greencoat to leverage its access to route-to-market to see does that create chances for JVs and taking some exposure into more development-stage assets as well.

All of that, I think, will come back in a more regular reporting cycle.

I think that's all the questions we have for now, and we will look forward to seeing some of you on the roadshow over the coming days.