Securitas AB Class B

Securitas AB Class B

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 24, 2026

Magnus Ahlqvist

Welcome to the Q2 and the first-half report that Matteo and I are sharing from Stockholm this morning. Today we will provide an update on the performance, and before the Q&A, I will also make some comments related to the Capital Markets Day that we had in London last month.

If we are switching then straight to the performance highlight, this is a quarter with some clear positive developments, but also a few areas where we are performing below our plan. Starting with the growth, the adjusted sales growth was 3%, and the growth in Technology North America was a clear positive development, while the growth in Europe was lower as a result of active portfolio management and significant negative impact in aviation.

Real sales growth in Technology & Solutions improved sequentially to 5%, and this recovery was supported by improved performance in Technology in North America. What is really positive is that the order entry and the backlog in the Technology installation business increased significantly across all geographic regions, and technology momentum is building as we're going into the second half.

From a strategy execution perspective, we are increasing the share of Technology & Solutions across all segments, which is fully in line with the strategy. The adjusted operating margin improved to 7.6%, and this was the result of positive mix change when we are growing T&S, or Technology & Solutions, at a higher pace, but with some negative impact from lower top-line growth in services.

We have now improved the operating margin 22 quarters in a row. Looking at the earnings growth, operating income increased 3% in the quarter, and it should be noted that we had approximately 1% negative impact on the real change due to the divestment of the GIG aviation business in North America.

Earnings per share improved 7% in the quarter and 11% in the first half. The cash flow was healthy at 87%.

The strategic assessment program was finalized in Q2, as was the active portfolio management activities in Europe and Ibero-America. We have been driving these programs over multiple years with a significant positive impact on the company, with a stronger focus and a higher quality of our business.

As we look ahead, it remains important to continuously work to optimize and calibrate the business, but it's good to have those programs behind us since we can dedicate more focus on client engagement and driving the commercial agenda. At Capital Markets Day in London in June—and there I just want to say thank you to all of you who were participating—we announced the strategy and how we are winning during the coming period towards 2030.

We also announced the headline target of achieving average annual growth in EPS of 10%. Let's then move to the performance in the business lines and the segments.

We delivered margin improvement in both business lines, with 11.3% for Technology & Solutions and 6.3% for services. The real sales growth in Technology & Solutions was 5% in the quarter, and as commented earlier, strong recovery in installation in North America contributed.

The commercial activity in electronic security around all regions around the world is very good now, and we're noting a strong order intake and backlog development in the second quarter. The real sales growth in security services was 0% in the quarter when excluding the impact of the government business to be closed down in North America.

This flat development is a consequence of active portfolio management, a negative development in aviation, but also a mixed picture in terms of the dynamics in the development of our customers' business in different vertical segments. With that, we're shifting to the reporting segments, and starting as always with North America, where the sales growth increased sequentially and the margin was stable.

Technology installation sales improved in Q2 after a very slow start in Q1, and sales growth was stable in the guarding business. The Pinkerton business is smaller, but continued to hamper the North America growth as a result of the termination of a large temporary contract.

When comparing to last year, we should also highlight that the recent divestment of the GIG aviation business had a negative impact on the real change in operating income in the quarter. Real sales growth in Technology & Solutions was 5% in the quarter.

As highlighted earlier, we're seeing increasing momentum in Technology installations, significant growth in order entry and backlog. Despite some of the top-line softness, the operating margin was stable in the second quarter, 20 basis points up in the first half of the year.

We are then moving to Europe, where we generated continued margin improvement despite negative impact from the airport security business. The organic growth was 2%, and the growth was supported by price increases and primarily related to Turkey.

Looking at the services business, active portfolio management had a clear negative impact on the growth. The aviation business was negatively impacted, like I said earlier, and this was now throughout the quarter, and it's all related to the situation in the Middle East and the reduced number of flights.

We have seen demand reduction in aviation in key markets like Germany of approximately 20%, and this had a significant impact on sales and profitability. From a total growth perspective, the impact from aviation is approximately 1% negative impact on the overall growth in Europe.

Real sales growth in Technology & Solutions was 4%. The operating margin in Europe was 7% in the quarter, and the margin improvement was driven by Technology and Solutions business lines.

Security services margin was positively impacted by active portfolio management, but negatively impacted by aviation. All in all, a somewhat mixed results development in Europe in the second quarter.

Let's then shift to Ibero-America, where we had a decent development of the business. Organic growth was 5%, and this was driven by very strong growth in Technology & Solutions and price increases in security services.

There is a negative impact on the growth from active portfolio management, but our team are driving good conversions to Technology & Solutions. The real sales growth in Technology & Solutions was very strong at 13%.

Similar to the European division, we have now completed the active portfolio management program in Ibero-America, and now transitioning into business as usual with ongoing portfolio optimization. The operating margin was flat at 7.5%, and strong growth in Technology & Solutions contributed, but overall margin was held back by negative leverage on the cost base in security services.

Looking at the first half, it's a good start to the year by our Ibero-America team. To summarize the performance, we are driving disciplined execution of our strategy with continued margin development, and as previously commented, growth came in below expectations in some areas, but we are seeing increasing momentum in the technology business.

While not reported externally, we had very strong sales growth and margin development in the AMEA business, which is reported in the other segment. Client retention is stable when you exclude the impact from the close-down of the government business in North America.

With that, handing over to you, Matteo, for the finance update.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Thank you, Magnus. We start with the income statement, where we had organic sales growth of 0% and improved the operating margin with 20 basis points to 7.5%.

Now, when we look at our performance excluding the government business to be closed down within SCIS, we deliver an OSG of 3% and an operating margin of 7.6%, which is 10 basis points better than last year. The operating income, adjusted for currencies, improved in the quarter by 3%.

In the quarter, we had, as Magnus already mentioned, circa 1% impact on real change due to the aviation business disposal in the US made in the first quarter. Looking below operating result, there are no material developments in amortization of acquisition-related intangible, nor in the acquisition-related costs.

Item affecting comparability was -46 million, which is a reduction of 120 million compared to last year and in line with our plan. This is related to our transformation program that will continue throughout 2026, and as previously also communicated, we estimate to have a full year 2026 program cost between 225 and 250 million SEK.

When we look at the year-to-date IAC, are still positive 138 million due to the capital gain of 213 million that we realize in quarter one primarily for the divestment of Global Elite Group in the US. Our finance net came in at 355 million, which is a reduction of 124 million compared to last year.

We continue the positive trend of reduced financing cost as interest rate and our debt level are decreasing. As communicated in Q1, we estimate finance net for 2026 continuing to reduce and land below 1.6 billion compared to the 1.8 billion for the full year 2025.

Now moving to tax, here our full-year forecasting tax rate remain at 27.5%, excluding the capital gain related to the divesture of Global Elite Group, which is the same level as we had in the first quarter. Our EPS real change growth was at 14% in the second quarter.

When excluding the effect of IAC, the EPS real change growth was 7%, supported by a 3% real change in our operating result and by a strong leverage from the reduced finance net. For the first half of 2026, our currency-adjusted EPS, excluding IAC, increase 11% compared to last year.

Quarterly result reflect FX headwinds, which were largely driven by USD, but as you can see here, lower than quarter one. Turning to cash flow, we deliver another good quarter, ending at 2.5 billion, which is corresponding to 87% of operating income.

For the first six months, cash generation improved by 458 million, reaching 65% of operating income. The year-to-date position is positively impacted by $41 million in Q1 due to the payroll timing in our guarding business in North America and by Paragon net working capital release related to the close-down.

The trade receivable negative change we see at quarter end was primarily driven by strong sales growth, particularly in North America, with a significant share of sales happening late in the quarter. In addition, the ERP go-live in Norway temporarily delay invoicing and collection processes.

This timing effect are expected to normalize during quarter three, resulting in a recovery of trade receivable and supporting cash conversion. The capital expenditure remain below our target at around 2.8% of sales in the quarter.

The free cash flow ended at 1.7 billion, supported by the strong Q2 operating income and reduced financial income and expenses paid from the improved debt provision. The first-half free cash flow improved by 752 million compared to last year.

We continue to see an improved operating cash flow, and we remain focused on strong cash generation to meet our full-year target of 80% to 90% of operating income. We then move and look at our net debt, which was 32.7 billion at the end of the quarter.

This is an increase of 495 million compared to Q1 this year, primarily related to the dividend payment of 1.5 billion and the negative translation difference of -513 million due to the weakened Swedish krona. Item affecting comparability remain according to plan, and as we anticipated during Q1, we are forecasting a cash flow for the full year 2026 in the range between 800 and 850 million SEK.

Looking at the right-hand side, our net debt to EBITDA remain at the same level as Q1 at 2.2 times, which is an improvement of 0.2 time compared to Q2 last year. We are below our targets, and we want to continue to be below 2.5 times and expect to continue to deleverage our balance sheet in the short term.

Looking at our financing and financial position, where we continue to have a strong balance sheet, strong liquidity, and we remain without any financial covenant in our debt facilities. In the second quarter, we extended by one year our revolving credit facility, and the new facility consists of two tranches: one of €900 million, which will mature in 2031, and one for €200 million, which will mature in 2029.

Each of these tranches might be extended for another extra year. Going forward and looking at the maturity chart, we have very limited refinancing needs throughout 2026, and our focus will be to continue to amortize debt, supported by a strong free cash flow generation.

Finally, we remain committed to our investment-grade rating. With that, Magnus, I hand it over back to you.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Many thanks, Matteo. Before we open up the Q&A, I would just like to share a few key messages related to the CMD announcements and our journey ahead.

As communicated at the CMD in London last month, we are well positioned for profitable growth. The winners in the security industry in the future must deliver quality and offer the clients technology, digital, and intelligence-led capabilities.

With these capabilities, we are very well positioned to capitalize on the changing dynamics and to drive profitable growth. With our new financial targets, we emphasize 10% annual average EPS growth over a cycle.

To us, this refers to the period leading up to 2030, which is the target year for our next strategic phase. We have a long-term ambition to reach 10% operating margin, but after a period of extensive transformation, we are now making this shift to focus on profitable growth.

Leveraging our unique offering, which is future-proof and clearly differentiated from our competition, we target around 4% to 6% organic growth and expect the continued mix shift to contribute to margin improvement. We are now intensifying our efforts to commercialize, monetize the capabilities we have built.

This includes strengthening our commercial capabilities, implementing incentives to drive cross- and upselling at scale, but also training our client teams to sell more integrated services and transforming the business towards intelligence-led. All of these efforts will have a positive impact on the overall growth and driving the mix change towards higher added-value services.

Then regarding capital allocation, after a period of deleveraging after the Stanley acquisition, we have a strong balance sheet. We're building the M&A pipeline with emphasis on technology bolt-ons.

We will be disciplined, and we will return excess capital to shareholders. To conclude this section, due to the changing market dynamics and rapid developments in technology, automation, and AI, I expect the coming five years in this industry to be more transformative than the last 25.

When I look at our presence, our technology, and digital capabilities, we are very well positioned for the next phase, and are stepping up the engagement with our clients, and we continue to drive the execution of our strategy to be the trusted partner in intelligence-led security. With that, Matteo and I are happy to open up the Q&A.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key 6 on your telephone keypad.

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key 6 on your telephone keypad.

The next question comes from Simon Jönsson from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Simon, we cannot hear you.

Operator

Simon Jönsson, ABG Sundal Collier, your line is now unmuted. Please go ahead.

Simon Jönsson

Hello, can you hear me?

Magnus Ahlqvist

Yes.

Simon Jönsson

Perfect. Thanks.

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions here. On the US, the margin specifically, if you can expand a bit more on the different moving parts here resulting in the relatively flat margins year over year, and also the phasing of these factors for the rest of the year.

When you mention, for instance, Pinkerton here and we also have other factors like growth in technology, and also the margin boost from SCIS. Please, if you can expand a bit on the moving parts of this quarter and what you expect coming quarters on the margin, those margin effects.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Hi, Simon. Matteo here.

I think when you look at the quarter, the main impact related to the profitability in the US is coming from the Pinkerton reduction. As we said, we had a termination of a temporary contract end of last year, which is impacting quite substantially.

This is the main reason for the profitability drop in the US. Going forward, it's very difficult, we don't guide for the second half, but the comparison with last year is like-for-like is a bit more tough.

The second half was a strong second half, but we believe that we can maintain our profitability in the US business on a good level for the second half as well.

Simon Jönsson

All right. Thanks for that.

Then I have a question on the SCIS closure, where you are in sort of the phasing of that termination in relative terms compared to last quarter, for instance.

Magnus Ahlqvist

When you look at that one, since we announced it, we have been executing the close-down according to plan, and I would say slightly ahead of plan as well. Firm commitment to have finalized all of that by the end of this year.

We are obviously keen on doing it as quickly as we can, but they're depending also on some of the interaction and approvals and things like that from some government agencies. It's not entirely within our control, but we feel comfortable we're going to be able to have all of that finalized, but at slightly accelerated pace right now, which is positive.

Simon Jönsson

All right. Could you give any color on what that means in terms of a percentage of how much you've done so far?

No,

Magnus Ahlqvist

we don't break that out, but it is going according to plan. Nothing more to say there.

Simon Jönsson

All right. Understand.

Then my second question is on Technology & Solutions specifically. When you talk about the orders, both intake and the backlog is that across regions, you would say?

If we look at the US specifically, now here in this quarter, would you say that you are back to a more normal growth level or are there still any kind of temporary effects, either positive or negative?

Magnus Ahlqvist

I would say first of all, I only highlight it because it is a significant increase. This is obviously very positive because we have been investing a lot in the electronic security business.

We have been now also through all the integration works. We're now able to also focus full effort on driving the commercial engagement and also developing the operations.

This is something that we are seeing across all geographic regions around the world. That is really positive because that gives me a good feeling in terms of the momentum in the technology business.

We say that it's very much than the design and installations business where we see this positive development. If you're looking at the general and I think also a bit related to your last question, there is a clear difference between different vertical segments.

I think on the totality, on the technology side, we are doing quite well. Obviously, when you're looking at the order entry and really strong backlog.

When you're looking at the guarding part of the business, there it's a little bit of a mixed situation between different vertical segments where some are strong and a few others are weaker. On the technology overall, I think we are definitely back at a normalized type of situation to address your question on the technology side.

Simon Jönsson

Perfect. Then just one final follow-up on Pinkerton specifically here, given that it's a significant impact on profitability.

What do you see there in terms of offsetting factors you could do and what you are doing to mitigate that? Is it that you adjust the organization or do you expect to build up the business and compensate?

Or was it more on temporarily high levels before? Or yeah, what's your plan for that?

Magnus Ahlqvist

Simon, can you just repeat, because I struggled to hear you the first part of the sentence. Which part of the business?

Pinkerton?

Simon Jönsson

Pinkerton.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Sorry. When you look at that one, this is a fairly small business, but it's an important business within the corporate risk management space.

We had a very significant contract that was a temporary contract that was terminated at the end of 2025. It's unfortunately hurting quite a lot in the comparables when we are looking at the year on year.

It's a good business. There is clear demand, but it's taking some time to then recover.

There we obviously having negative leverage, which is hurting quite a lot when you have fixed cost base and then a revenue number which is coming down. That's something that our leaders are hard at work there to ensure that we address those ones and that we also then rebuild the commercial momentum and also the positive growth impact, because it had a significant negative impact in the second quarter on the growth and also on the profitability in North America.

Simon Jönsson

You're rather looking to expand those volumes again, rather than adjusting the organization basically? No,

Magnus Ahlqvist

we always take action. If we have a weakness in the top line, we try to take actions immediately, and that's something that we're trying to optimize now.

It's also an important business strategically, I think it's also a matter of, okay, we just have to kind of face the tough reality that we had that termination, but then it's about rebuilding at the same time. I would say it's a little bit of both, Simon, to manage the business in a responsible way.

Simon Jönsson

All right. Thank you so much, Magnus and Matteo.

That's all for me.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thank you.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Heimer Dan from SEB. Please go ahead.

Heimer Dan

Hi, Magnus and Matteo. Hope you can hear me.

A couple of questions from my side as well. Maybe starting a little bit on aviation.

I think you mentioned that you saw an impact to your airport security business due to the political situation in the Middle East. If I heard you correctly, it was throughout the quarter, right?

I know it's a smaller part of your business today, but it's still quite relevant for Q3 in particular. Should I read it as you don't expect an immediate pick-up, or how should I read how the situation is within aviation right now?

Thank you.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thank you, Hjalmar. Yes, it's correct.

We highlighted in the Q1 report, then we had essentially one month of impact in the month of March. Now it's throughout the quarter.

The size of the impact has been on the high side also in relation to my expectation. Just to give some flavor of that, we've seen approximately 20% demand reduction in terms of the capacity and the hours that we are providing in terms of security screening work.

As it happens, we are doing a lot of the work at terminals that have more exposure to the traffic to and from the Middle East. That is obviously one that is negatively impacting.

It's really difficult to say, obviously, how that situation is going to develop, because that's related to political matters that are difficult to project. What we are doing, because like Matteo and I highlighted, we did have real fixed cost negative leverage that hurt also the operating margin quite a lot in Europe in the quarter related to the aviation.

That's something that now we're taking actions to try to adjust that. The top-line demand, that is difficult to forecast.

I hope that gives a better understanding of the situation.

Heimer Dan

Fully understand. Thanks for that color.

Maybe continuing a little bit on what you said about intensifying your efforts to commercialize the capabilities you built within technology. Since you have that strong offering, what's sort of the missing link to drive that to growth?

Is it a little bit of a mindset thing that you've been throughout the period of focusing maybe inwards and improving profitability and it takes some time to restart growth again, or what's needed to drive a little bit high growth here ahead?

Magnus Ahlqvist

I would say that when you're looking at this here, we've had a lot of emphasis and focus on creating a sharp and a quality portfolio. In that sense, just the fact that we are done with the active portfolio management work, that is important across all guarding business, and that's obviously a significant part of the total business.

We have also, since 6, 12 months, and I think I've been sharing a little bit about that as well, also been spending quite a lot of time and effort in terms of how we are strengthening our commercial capabilities. That's partly leaders and leadership, some changes that we have been making to ensure that we also bringing commercial leaders that are capable of also delivering the value proposition that we have now, which is stronger than ever, especially when you look at an increasing pace of shift towards more technology, more digital, and risk-based capabilities.

That is another one. A third one is also that we have also been driving more changes in terms of incentive models, for example.

Those incentive models to ensure that when we now have really strong different protective services capabilities, that we are driving cross-selling, that we're driving upselling, but that we're also then doing more to be able to deliver more integrated and more intelligence-led capabilities to the client. All of this is fully in line with the strategy, but it is a little bit of a transition phase, because we had very strong focus obviously on quality, on operating margin achievement.

Now we are shifting that focus back to profitable growth and also then in selling a richer offering. I think that's a bit where we are right now.

Then as nothing is happening immediately. We can take actions, but it always takes a little bit of time before you also start to see the full impact.

I would highlight that when I look at the technology business, one of the most positive aspects about Q2 is the significant strength in order entry and the backlog, because that's obviously an area which is significantly important as we go forward.

Heimer Dan

Thank you. Makes a lot of sense.

Maybe a final one for you, Matteo. An increase in Days Sales Outstanding, is that a timing thing?

We should expect that to revert during the second half of the year when your cash flows are typically stronger, or what's driving that?

Matteo Dall'Ora

As I mentioned during the call, Hjalmar, this is, I believe, a temporary effect, and we are expecting this to be normalized in quarter three. That was mainly related to the strong sales evolution in North America Technology, especially at the end of the quarter.

Therefore, there is a bit of a timing lag there. Also, we had the ERP implementation in Norway, which we had a bit of a hiccup in a certain processes.

One of those was the collection of AR. I believe this one will be solved also in the next week, this will be recovered definitely in quarter three.

Heimer Dan

Very clear. Thanks.

That was all from my side right now. Thank you.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Andy Grobler from BNPP. Please go ahead.

Andy Grobler

Hi, good morning. Just a few small ones from me, please.

You've talked about Pinkerton and the impact of that lost temporary contract on growth and margin. Could you try and quantify that a little more so we can understand kind of what the underlying growth rates would be?

Just to clarify on that, you talked about negative operational leverage as a result of losing this contract. You've also said it was a temporary contract.

Presumably, any cost build was just contained within that contract, and essentially we saw better leverage last year when you had that contract and now we're just going back to a more normal level. Is that the right way to think about it?

Be my first question. Secondly, just a clarification on the IACs, the guidance for the cash cost for the year is 800 to 850 million, and you've talked about the transformation cost.

Can you just go through the other components from a cash perspective of that cost for the year? Then thirdly, just quickly, you mentioned this before, but the rise in DSOs due to the ERP in Norway and North American timing, again, could you just help quantify how much that drove higher receivables and what the normalized level would be?

Thank you very much.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Andy. I'll start with the first one, Pinkerton.

I think as I said, Pinkerton was the main driver for the, let's say, flat evolution of operating margin in North America. Like you said, a temporary contract, we are working, as Magnus also mentioned in the previous question, from a cost structure point of view.

I believe we are moving on the right direction there. Also, we are working to make sure that commercially, we continue to perform and growth on this important segment for us.

Both, we continue to work on growing the Pinkerton business, but also we are looking at the cost structure to make sure that we protect the bottom line there as well. I believe this is moving on the right direction in the second half.

When it comes to the second question on the IAC cash flow, this is you're right, I mentioned the forecast at the moment is 800 to 850 million SEK for the full year. Majority of this is related to the close-down of the SCIS business.

We're not certain 100% that will be completely impacted the 2026. Certain items might end up in 2027, but we will be a bit more certain and we can be more accurate in our answer at the end of quarter three because right now we are still evaluating a few things, but majority of this is related to the close-down.

Then the DSO, as I said, these are the main two impacts. The biggest impact of the two, the one that I mentioned, the ERP in Norway and the sales growth in the US, is actually the US business sales growth that has a biggest impact.

To quantify is a bit difficult. I would say that 70% of the increase that we see in the DSO is coming from the US.

Therefore, also the trade receivable change that you see there. I believe, as I said, that this is just a temporary issue because the sales was really strong at the end of the quarter.

Andy Grobler

Okay. Thank you.

Just to check a couple of things: the Pinkerton lost temporary contract, that will remain a headwind, all else being equal, through the remainder of the year. Is that correct?

Two, just with the closure costs for SCIS, are you still expecting to have a receivables unwind which partially offsets that through working capital?

Matteo Dall'Ora

The second question, yes. The first question about Pinkerton is yes, again.

We also need to see the underlying performance of Pinkerton without this temporary contract. They are growing, and, of course, they are not able to offset completely this termination.

Again, working to recover part of this termination throughout the 2026, therefore, also improve their profitability.

Andy Grobler

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Geoffroy Michalet from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.

Geoffroy Michalet

Hi, I hope you can hear me. A few questions.

On the portfolio reshuffling that you have finalized in Europe and Ibero-America in Q2, would you be able to give us a kind of gross impact it had on the top line, and in your view, until when do you expect to see the impact on the organic growth going forward? The second question is on the order intake you mentioned on the Technology & Solutions side.

Could you give us a sense on the kind of clients that are, let's say, contributing to increase this order intake? Are they large, medium, or small clients?

Is it the result of some change in commercial activity? Also, in terms of, let's say, sales cycle for the transformation of that backlog into sales, what kind of, let's say, delay do you expect?

When do you think we could see this growth in T&S increasing in your sales? Thank you very much.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thank you. Geoffroy, when you look at the active portfolio management, this is a multi-year program that we have been driving, and obviously on the guarding part of the business, and that's a portfolio business.

We typically don't see very quick swings in that sense. It's usually a little bit more slower moving.

The important thing is that it's been quite tough work, but important work to ensure that all contracts are financially sustainable, and that we're making decent profit. We don't really project that, but it is somewhat slower moving when you're looking at the impact.

Obviously, over time, there will be positive impact from the fact that we have finalized that work. When you're looking at the order entry, the order entry is in the Technology installations business that we are referring to, not the Solutions business.

That's fairly broad-based. If I were to highlight one kind of tendency, I would say due to the economic situation, we're seeing more strength in a number of vertical segments like in technology, when you look at defense, when you look at financial segment, for example, where there is very strong demand.

If you're looking at more the local businesses, there is more of a mixed picture. The important thing is that it is broad-based.

The last question that you had, okay, if you have a strong and growing order entry situation and the backlog, well, some jobs we are able to convert fairly quickly, but here we're typically talking four, five, six months type of situation when you look at how are we converting backlog to revenue. That's a little bit the timeline that I would keep in mind.

Geoffroy Michalet

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Viktor Lindeberg from DNB Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Viktor Lindeberg

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. A couple of follow-ups on North America from my side as a start, and GIG has not been touched upon that much.

I think you mentioned about a 1 percentage point of headwind on growth, but can you comment the impact on profitability in the quarter, starting there?

Magnus Ahlqvist

The 1% is on the income, the operating income. I think on the margin, we're not really breaking that out.

I would say it's more marginal impact on the margin overall.

Viktor Lindeberg

Okay. On Pinkerton, just to understand the dynamics here.

It's been a hot topic today, and you mentioned actually in Q1 that it was performing better year-over-year in terms of margin progression, and nothing about the contract loss in itself. Was this a, call it back-end surprise to you when looking at the quarter now, and basically that you were operating with costs that were perhaps masked when communicating around Q1 and how Pinkerton performed better?

Magnus Ahlqvist

We have some adjustments, like I said, Viktor, related to that termination. Then obviously, there's a full business context, but as I commented earlier, here it's obviously important that we rebuild the commercial momentum and drive the growth, but team also then working on optimizing cost so that we, because otherwise there is always a risk when you have a bigger top-line swing that there is some negative leverage on a fixed cost base in the short term.

Viktor Lindeberg

Got it. Thanks.

Apologies for that, missed on the technical aspect of it. Then more of a high-level question, and maybe also connected a bit more to your medium-term targets.

We are now looking at the coming six months, and you basically quite difficult margin comparables. You had a very good second half last year.

Now we have a bit uncertain situation about the aviation business in the shorter term. We have a contract lost in the US and so forth.

Can you share, maybe not quantify, but share your view on the second half in terms of margin progression? Are we looking more sideways from here, or you have internal initiatives, and maybe some tailwind from the technology backlog that should support, etc., just to understand and clarify a bit where we are and where you think we are heading?

Magnus Ahlqvist

When you look at what we shared, and we don't guide specifically for any time period, but just referring to what we said in the Capital Markets Day, we see with the portfolio and the capabilities that we have in terms of driving mix change, but also then increased efficiency in terms of how we operate, an opportunity over time to drive around 20, 30 basis points. That is the firm belief that we are operating with.

I don't think that there is so much more to say. Mix change is obviously important, because if we are driving significantly higher growth on technology and also solutions, that will obviously also have an impact and a clear impact.

I think the mix change is important, but we have also been shaping the business in a way that we feel confident that we're going to be able to drive continuous margin improvement over the next period.

Viktor Lindeberg

Thank you. Finally, just to clarify on the working capital in closing down the SCIS business, has most of that cash flow been released now, or is the bigger part ahead of us?

Matteo Dall'Ora

I think it's happening continuously, Viktor. I think, again, as I said, the forecast from a cash flow point of view is about 800 million, 850 towards the end of the year.

I think we are in line with our plan. It's happening in our cash flow.

Viktor Lindeberg

Yes, this was more about the working capital release from the mounting down of the business and how it has affected the ratios, net working capital ratios, etc.

Matteo Dall'Ora

Yeah. As I said, it continuous throughout the 2026.

Our forecast at the moment is about 800 million at the end of the year. Then, again, as I said, there might be some items going into the 2027.

Viktor Lindeberg

All right. Thanks.

That's all from my side.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Nicole Manion from UBS.

Please go ahead.

Nicole Manion

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

Just one follow-up on the margin, please. I've had quite a bit of color on Europe and North America, but I think you also mentioned some negative operating leverage in security services in Ibero-America.

Could you just give a bit more detail on what you've seen there and how that's kind of evolving into the second half? Thanks.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thanks, Nicole. I think that one was more temporary matters, a little bit related to movements that we had in portfolio.

Overall growth in Ibero-America very strong on the Solutions and the Technology side. I think was more related to movements in the guarding or the services business.

We have a strong track record, typically manage in a strong way, so that's also something that I expect that we're going to address swiftly.

Nicole Manion

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

There are no more questions at this time. I hand the conference back to the President and CEO, Magnus Ahlqvist, for any closing comments.

Magnus Ahlqvist

With that, we conclude the conference. Thanks a lot everyone for your engagement, and talk to you soon.