National Bank of Canada

National Bank of Canada

NBKCF
National Bank of CanadaUS flagOther OTC
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Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 26, 2026

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to National Bank of Canada's Third Quarter 26 Earnings Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Marianne Ratte, Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Marianne Ratte

Merci and welcome everyone. We will begin the call with remarks from Laurent Ferreira, President and CEO Marie Chantal Gingras, CFO and Jean-Sébastien Grisé, Chief Risk Officer.

Our business heads are also present for the Q and A session, including Julie Levesque, Personal Banking, commercial and private banking, Nancy Paquet, wealth management Etienne Dubuc, Capital Markets and Bill Bonnell, International. Before we begin, please refer to Slide 2 of our presentation for forward looking statements and non GAAP measures.

Management will refer to adjusted results unless otherwise noted. I will now pass the call to Laurent.

Laurent Ferreira

Merci, Marianne, thank you, everyone, for joining us. Before turning to our results, let me say a few words about the latest developments affecting Canada.

The Canadian economy has demonstrated resilience over the past 18 months. But the unresolved and escalating trade conflict with the US continues to create economic uncertainty and challenges for businesses across the country.

At this point, it is difficult to forecast the outcome. But new tariffs on both sides of the border will impact additional industries business investments, affordability for consumers.

Yesterday's announcement on business and worker support is welcome and should provide relief for those impacted. Alongside government support, National Bank will be there for affected clients.

Ongoing discussions with clients and partners point to 1 conclusion. Canada is taking the right steps to strengthen the foundations of its economy.

And it has fiscal room to continue doing so. While business confidence and investment are difficult in the current context, I am encouraged by the way governments and business leaders are mobilizing around Canada's economic priorities.

And significant investments are being made in strategic infrastructure across the country. At The National Bank, we are committed to supporting our clients and working with governments and businesses to deploy capital towards reindustrialization, infrastructure, defense, and energy.

Investments in these sectors are critical to strengthening Canada's productive capacity and supporting durable economic growth. Across the country, the retooling of the Canadian economy is creating attractive opportunities to deploy our balance sheet.

Energy, power infrastructure, and the recent icebreaker contract announcement are great examples of our country moving in the right direction. And OSFI's decision to lower the range for the domestic stability buffer provides additional flexibility to support Canadian businesses as they are dealing with a challenging environment.

Turning now to our financial results. EPS for the third quarter of 26 was $3.39, up 26% year over year.

Revenues increased 18% supported by favorable market conditions across our fee based businesses and strong balance sheet growth. We generated positive operating leverage of nearly 6% and our credit performance remained resilient.

Return on equity was 16.8% continuing on the solid performance we have delivered since the beginning of the year. Our CET1 ratio stood at 13.51% We maintained a strong capital position while generating strong organic growth and buying back shares.

We intend to complete our current NCIB in September and launch a new 1 at that time. Subject, to regulatory approvals.

Our dividend payout currently stands at 38.8% As per usual practice, we will review the dividend next quarter. Finally, on the Laurentian Bank transaction, last quarter we completed the acquisition of the syndicated loan portfolio and the minister of finance has since approved the acquisition of Laurentian Bank by Fairstone.

We expect our acquisition of the retail and SME banking portfolios to be completed by late 26 as previously announced. Turning now to our business segments.

P&C Banking generated net income growth of 13% year over year. Results reflect strong growth in personal mortgages and fee based income as well as solid balance sheet growth in commercial banking.

This was further supported by positive operating leverage of 1% and strong credit performance. In personal banking, mortgages grew 14% year over year continuing the momentum of recent quarters.

This was driven by renewal activity a resilient housing market in Quebec, and market share gains. Deposits were stable sequentially while rising equity markets continued to drive client demand for investment solutions.

This contributed to a 7% increase in total per savings year over year. In commercial banking, deposits were up 12% year over year This reflects the usual seasonal inflows from government clients as well as higher balances in our commercial business.

Commercial loans were up 4% year over year. Activity remained solid within the National Bank originated loan portfolio, which grew 10% year over year.

The CWB legacy book was relatively stable sequentially. Our integration is going well, and our pipeline is strengthening.

In wealth management, net income was $299 million up 22% year over year. Results reflect strength across the franchise, including higher fee based income and transaction volumes.

Segment performance was further supported by positive operating leverage above 2%. Capital markets generated net income of $442 million up 32% year over year.

Global markets revenue were $578 million, consistent with the strong performance of recent quarter and supported by healthy client activity. Rising equity markets continue to support structured products origination, while attractive funding opportunities benefited our securities finance business.

Corporate and investment banking revenues increased 13% year over year. Corporate banking loans grew 13% over the same period, reflecting continued opportunities across sectors.

Investment banking maintained its strong performance, supported by M&A activity and continuous investment in our franchise. Favorable market conditions drove solid debt capital market activity across both corporate and government issuers.

Credigy generated net income of $39 million Revenue growth of 13% year over year was primarily driven by a gain on the sale of a portfolio. While credit performance reflected a built in performing loan provisions and average assets grew 8%.

Year over year. Against a competitive market, and pricing backdrop, we remain selective in pursuing deals as we continue to benefit from recurring flows from established partnerships.

At ABA Bank, net income was up 1% year over year. Reflecting slower economic growth in the country.

Revenue growth of 6% was partly offset by higher efficiency ratio and PCLs. Loans were up 11% year over year and deposits grew 7%.

Over the same period. I will now pass the call to Marie Chantal.

Marie Chantal Gingras

Thank you, Laurent, and good morning, everyone. We delivered strong results in the third quarter.

PTPP increased 24% year over year with positive operating leverage of 5.8%. Revenues grew 18% over the same period with strong performance in capital markets, wealth management, and personal banking along with solid balance sheet growth and higher treasury revenues.

Operating leverage was positive across all businesses, supported by solid execution and realized synergies. Expenses increased 11.7% year over year.

This was mainly driven by higher variable compensation, consistent with our strong performance. We also continue to invest in talent and technology with IT investments focused on supporting business growth and on strengthening our operational resilience.

Q3 also included litigation expenses of $11 million Excluding variable compensation and litigation costs, expenses rose 7.7%. Moving to slide 8.

Net interest income excluding trading increased 7% sequentially benefiting from strong volume growth across P&C Banking wealth management, and corporate banking, while the higher number of days in Q3 accounted for approximately half of the increase. All bank NIM increased 2 basis points quarter over quarter to 2.18%.

This reflected a strong contribution from Treasury which added 3 basis points as well as the realignment of noninterest income to net interest income between Q2 and Q3 which contributed an additional 4 basis points. These benefits were partly offset by a decline in the P&C banking margin down 7 basis points sequentially largely driven by strong growth in personal mortgages, and the commercial deposit mix impact reflecting seasonal inflows from government deposits.

As we look forward to Q4, and recognizing an evolving interest rate environment, we expect the P&C margin to remain relatively stable at Q3 levels. Although deposit margins have generally been improving, the benefit is expected to continue to be offset by deposit mix dynamics within commercial banking.

As always, balance sheet mix remains an important factor to consider. Our focus remains on growing the franchise, with the right balance between volume growth, margins, and credit quality.

The all bank NIM is also expected to remain relatively stable in Q4. Turning to slide 9.

We continue to grow both sides of the balance sheet. Loans increased 11% year over year and 4% quarter over quarter amid record mortgage originations.

Deposits increased 11% year over year or 1% sequentially. Personal demand deposits were slightly lower quarter over quarter as customer appetite for investment solutions remained strong supported by favorable market performance that continued through Q3.

Personal term deposits increased by $1.3 billion primarily driven by structured note issuances. Nonretail deposits, increased by $2.9 billion or 1% quarter over quarter mainly within commercial banking.

Now moving to capital on slide 10. We ended the quarter with a strong CET1 ratio of 13.51% supported by capital generation of 41 basis points.

RWA expansion resulted in a 19 basis point impact on our CET1 ratio this quarter, Strong organic growth in credit risk RWA consumed 35 basis points of capital led by corporate banking. This was partly offset by 15 basis points of benefits from continuous refinements.

We repurchased 2.3 million shares in Q3 reducing CET1 by 26 basis points. We remain on track to complete our current NCIB by its September 2026 expiry.

Now let me turn to the capital optimization initiative currently underway beginning with AIRB. We continue to make good progress on the transition of the acquired CWB portfolios to the AIRB framework.

We have now completed the required 2 quarter regulatory parallel run which has provided valuable insights into the performance of these portfolios. More importantly, we have demonstrated regulatory readiness across 3 of the 4 pillars of the CMAP framework namely integration, operations, and controls.

The work completed to date has also validated our ability to effectively integrate and leverage CWB data within our AIRB framework strengthening risk insights, and supporting the successful integration of the acquired portfolio. The remaining work is primarily concentrated on the methodology pillar where we concluded that additional model refinements are needed before seeking regulatory approval given the current stage of the credit cycle including higher observed default rates.

Accordingly, we have decided to defer this into fiscal 27 reflecting our disciplined model optimization approach. Based on our updated assessment, we continue to expect a CET1 benefit from the AIRB transition although the benefit is likely to be more moderate than our previous estimate.

Benefits are expected to begin materializing in late 27 and are now expected to track toward the lower end of our previously communicated range of 35 to 55 basis points. Looking ahead, additional ongoing refinements are expected to generate approximately 20 basis points of additional CET1 capital in Q4 26.

Additionally, we intend to launch a new NCIB upon the current program expiry in September 2026 subject to regulatory approval. Overall, our capital position remains strong supported by a robust CET1 ratio.

It continues to provide ample flexibility to advance our strategic priorities with disciplined RWA management ongoing optimization initiatives, and sustainable dividend growth. Importantly, it reflects our ongoing focus on disciplined capital deployment, as we remain on track to achieve a 17%+ ROE by 2027 and assuming a CET1 ratio converging towards 13% by the end of 2027.

Now turning to slide 11. We are making solid progress on realizing synergies from the acquisition of CWB, having captured $238 million of cost and funding synergies to date.

We remain on track to realize $270 million by the end of fiscal 26 representing about $300 million on an annualized basis. We have also achieved our fiscal 26 revenue synergy target of $50 million ahead of schedule.

Specifically, $52 million mostly from fee income has been realized to date. Further progress on the integration will support incremental synergy capture over time, as we continue to target $200 million to $250 million in revenue synergies by the end of fiscal 28.

Following another strong quarter, our year to date EPS grew by 16.8%. This was supported by broad based revenue growth strong capital markets and wealth management performance.

Positive operating leverage, and ongoing cost discipline. As well, CWB synergies are being realized and credits remained within expectation.

Accordingly, with our year to date ROE of 16.7% we are well on our way to exceed our 16% ROE target for fiscal 26. We also continue to expect positive operating leverage for the full year with expense growth moderating in Q4.

And before I turn it over to Jean-Sébastien, I would like to provide an update on how we plan to enhance our segment disclosure as we continue to execute on our strategy. As we have previously discussed, we are advancing a multi year plan to strengthen our retail franchise.

We intend to provide greater visibility into the strategic plan by year-end 2026. In that context, and to better reflect the CWB revenue synergies, We are introducing select enhanced enhancements to our segment reporting beginning in the fourth quarter of 26 including separate disclosure for personal banking and commercial banking.

We believe this enhanced segmentation will provide investors and analysts with a clearer view of the performance drivers and strategic progress within each business. We look forward to providing an update by year end.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Jean-Sebastien.

Jean-Sébastien Grisé

Good morning, everyone. Since our last call, the Canadian economy has demonstrated resilience.

With GDP growth and signs of improvement in the labor market. However, the current trade conflict negatively impacted business sentiment and investment outlook.

Meanwhile, government measures should provide support on impacted sectors and their employees. More broadly, geopolitical risks remain elevated.

And have impacts on energy prices, inflation and interest rate. At the same time, trade diversification growth in key resource sectors, and strategic investments in technology, and infrastructure should support long term economic growth.

In this complex environment, our resilient portfolio mix disciplined risk management, and prudent provisioning underpinned our strong credit performance. Now turning to the third quarter results on slide 13.

Total PCL were $240 million or 31 basis points. Stable quarter over quarter.

We added 3 basis points of performing provision in Q3, mainly reflecting portfolio growth and a macroeconomic scenario update at Credigy. Including higher long term interest rates that impacted our longer duration portfolios.

These factors were partially offset by model calibration. PCL on impaired loans were $224 million or 28 basis points.

up 2 basis points quarter over quarter. And within our guidance of 25 to 35 basis points for the full year.

Personal banking provisions were stable sequentially as higher retail losses were offset by lower credit card losses. Commercial banking provisions were $25 million lower quarter over quarter with Q3 provisions mainly reflecting 2 files.

Capital market provisions were $49 million higher than Q2, and related to 1 file in the oil and gas sector. At Credigy, provisions increased by $2 million resulting from the normal seasoning of residential mortgages and consumer loans.

At ABA, impaired provisions were up by $4 million sequentially to $17 million reflecting new formations. Turning to slide 14.

Our total allowances for credit losses were $2.7 billion, representing 5.3x coverage of our net charge offs. Our performing allowances were $1.7 billion demonstrating a strong performing ACL coverage ratio of 2x.

We have been building allowances for the past 17 quarters, and continue to be comfortable with our prudent and defensive provisioning levels. Turning to slide 15, Our gross impaired loan ratio was 114 basis points stable quarter over quarter.

GILs excluding POCI, was 82 basis points, down 2 basis points sequentially. Net formations were 10 basis points.

down 3 basis points from Q2. In Commercial Banking, net formations were down 24 basis points to 4 basis points mainly reflecting 2 files, partially offset by repayments.

In Capital Markets, net formations were driven by 1 file, in the oil and gas sector. In conclusion, we remain pleased with the credit performance in the third quarter and year to date.

We continue to expect impaired provisions for fiscal 26 to be within the 25 to 35 basis points range. In the current context of ongoing uncertainty, we expect unemployment levels to continue to drive retail provisions, while wholesale books remain subject to periodic lumpiness.

Overall, our defensive qualities diversified business mix, and prudent allowances position us well as we look ahead. And with that, I will now turn the call back to the operator for the Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. And Your first question comes from Matthew Lee with Canaccord Genuity.

Please go ahead.

Matthew Lee

Mortgage growth was strong this quarter and it looks like contributed to some of the pressure on personal banking NIM. You just help us understand how much of that compression reflected competition for loan growth versus maybe some of the deposit dynamics we have seen over the past couple of quarters?

And then bigger picture, how willing are you to continue trading margin for growth if the competitive environment stays elevated?

Julie Levesque

Hi, Matthew. Thank you for the question.

You are right. The P&C NIM declined 7 basis points, and it is driven by our continued mortgage growth and our business mix.

And it is supporting our revenue growth as well. That is 10% year over year.

Mortgages are really 1 of our most effective client acquisition vehicles, so our strategy has always been to view the mortgage as an point to a broader banking relationship And this opportunity is to deepen those relationship over time through deposit, as you mentioned, investment, credit cards, and advisory services. So as we see the large cohort of newly acquired mortgage clients mature, we expect stronger primary banking relationship And this is really a key component of our long term growth.

Strategy and an important driver of future deposit growth.

Matthew Lee

Okay. that is helpful.

I mean, you have seen the outperformance in mortgages is primarily just driven by execution in strength? Or is there a pricing aspect there as well?

Julie Levesque

So thank you again for the question. Our mortgage growth continue to be driven primarily by market share gains rather than aggressive pricing.

We have maintained a consistent pricing strategy across all of our channels, and we remain focused on profitable sustainable growth. Our growth is being supported really by a strong execution across both of our channels, so distribution network and the broker channels.

Which really a strict a strong momentum in Quebec where we see where the market has been really resilient. We are also encouraging growth in Ontario and other markets outside of Quebec.

Our recent CWB acquisition provides us a good window and a good to grow that business Southwest as well.

Matthew Lee

Alright. that is great color.

I will pass the line. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Aiken with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

John Aiken

Yeah. Chantelle, I want to talk about the AIRB conversion of the CWB portfolio a little bit further.

So now we are expecting I think you said the benefits are going to materialize late 2027. Does this mean that we expect the conversion to happen in late 27, or is the conversion going to happen early 2027 that is gonna take some time for the benefits to pull through?

I am a little confused because I thought previously it was going to be in the fourth quarter, the conversion and the benefits were going to impact Q4.

Marie Chantal Gingras

Thanks, John, for the question. And yeah, I think it requires a few more details in order to clarify what we shared earlier in our remarks.

So as you heard we have completed our 2 quarter regulatory parallel run and we are happy with the demonstration of the regulatory readiness that we have demonstrated across 3 of our 4 pillars. Now the next pillar that we will be focusing on is the methodology 1, And really, what we are trying to achieve there is we want to recalibrate the models to improve their predictive accuracy.

And once that work is done, we will proceed with the required 2 quarter regulatory parallel run. So to answer your question specifically, the conversion will happen late 2027.

Once that work is done. So for us, the strategic rationale for transitioning to the acquired CWB portfolio to the AIRB, it remains fully intact.

We are very confident that this will support long term capital efficiency and shareholder returns.

John Aiken

Thank you very much. I think I understand that now.

Appreciate it. Thanks, John.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Boland with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Analyst

Yes. Sorry, I am going to follow-up with John.

And, again, maybe this change, maybe I missed this or just because of my tenure doing this with the banks. But I thought the AIRB benefits were in the 50 to 75 basis points.

Is that are you just talking about that 35 to 55 just for this 1 portfolio? Or that is the total benefit that we should expect now?

Marie Chantal Gingras

it is just for the 1 portfolio. Because you are right.

Yeah. The overall target was larger, but our first conversion was 35 to 55.

Okay. I appreciate that.

And just, you have kept your guidance or your goal for 17% ROE. By the end of fiscal 27.

When I look at your CET1 waterfall, how are you going to drive a higher ROE when unless you are just continue to buy back more stock because you are obviously very profitable. But is there a combination of higher profit and then accelerated NCIB that is going to drive that 50 basis points lower over the next year.

So to your question on the main drivers on our ROE target of 17 plus for 27. it is a combination of many factors as we have disclosed earlier this year.

So, yes, continued broad based growth across all of our segments. Revenue synergies, as I have disclosed earlier in my remarks, are also expected to contribute to that upside into the ROE.

There is obviously, some buybacks that we had referred to, and it is something that we continue to converge to with a new NCIB program we will be announcing upon expiry of the current 1. So we continue to be very confident in achieving that 17 plus ROE.

And we are also maintaining that target, while trending the CET1 ratio towards approximately 13% for year end of 27. So those are the main drivers behind our target.

As per our usual practice, we will be revising the guidance in Q4 for the following year. So, stay tuned for that.

Okay. Thanks very much.

You are welcome.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Doug Young with Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Doug Young

Hi. Good morning, and I apologize.

I am gonna follow-up on the AIRB. But just and I get the whole process and how you described it all makes a ton of sense.

What I am wondering is what why the lower end of the target now? Like, what changed versus your initial kind of view??

that is driving that to the lower end of your initial target range. And I know this is for the first conversion, but for the second conversion or the remainder, should we be thinking of something similar?

Marie Chantal Gingras

Thanks, Doug. it is Maheshantal, and I will answer the first portion of your question, and maybe I will pass it over to Jean-Sébastien for the follow-up.

So we concluded that additional model requirements were needed given the current stage of the credit cycle, higher observed default rates. So this is an important portion of our update, today.

So Jean-Sébastien, do you want to give a little bit more insights?

Jean-Sébastien Grisé

Sure, Doug. Yeah.

So great question. When you look at our CWB performance last year and this year, you would have seen that the CWB impaired loan ratio was higher than what we had, in our National Bank ratios.

So higher observed defaults. What that will mean is when we will redevelop that part of the model, there will be more conservatism.

And given the, more conservatism, you should expect then a little bit more capital consumption than what we had originally expected, which explains why the benefit would be lower.

Doug Young

Okay. I kind of get it.

But let me stick with you as well. Just thinking on credit, and I get the interplay of NIMs and Canadian banking.

Being down, but your impaired PCL is down, and I think thinking about NIMs and credit kind of go hand in hand. So and then you did release some performing loan allowances in Canada as well.

So I am just trying to understand, like, the credit in Canadian banking was better than expected. Is this also a function of the mix shift the top theme?

Or can you provide a little bit more detail on what drove that?

Jean-Sébastien Grisé

Yes. So a couple questions in there.

So I will answer your direct 1 on the releases of provisions in Canadian bank So first, as a bank, we had 17 consecutive quarters of builds. I think you can see our coverage ratio 5.3 times of net charge off, over 2 times last 12 month impaired PCL.

So very strong coverage ratios. What happened is for the Canadian banking, specifically for the commercial banking, we saw 2 positive, outcomes.

First, we saw very positive credit migration. And second, some of the macroeconomic scenarios or specific variables had a positive impact so that created a release.

So the growth we saw in this portfolio was counterbalanced by good credit migration, and a favorable macroeconomic scenarios. On a more general perspective, maybe on the credit outlook, we still see the same 2 stories continuing.

So the same stories we have been talking about for the past year, So in terms of wholesale performance, we still expect them to be lumpy So not necessarily an increase in rise of defaults, but what we are still observing is lower recuperation rates. And that is being driven by the tariff environment, the geopolitical environment, inflation environment, and supply chain disruptions.

In terms of retail, you would have seen you would have seen the unemployment improve significantly this quarter. And I have been calling a specific cohort, which is the 24- to 55-year-old age cohort.

And we have seen some, strong improvement in unemployment and a reduction in layoff rates. But we are still expecting this to take a little bit of time before it bakes into the PCL results.

We have also observed that early stage delinquencies were improving in most categories in retail except insured mortgages, but I would not call it a trend yet. We are still seeing geographical differences.

So Quebec outperforming, Ontario and we are still seeing that homeowners that have unsecured credits are performing better than non homeowners. And you know, we you know our portfolio, so, we are continually underweight consumer unsecured.

Overweight insured mortgages, then when you see our provisioning, also on the consumer unsecured, which is always the part that I am looking We keep around 8% provisioning levels on our credit card, which is I think, prudent.

Doug Young

Very close, and I appreciate the color. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Holden with CIBC. Please go ahead.

Paul Holden

Thank you. Good morning.

I want to drill down a little bit more on the, the Canadian P&C NIMs. So a couple questions on that.

First off, you mentioned consistent pricing strategy. Can you give us a sense of then the direction of mortgage spreads, how are those trending in Q3 versus the last couple of quarters?

And then 2, talk to us a little bit more about the treasury benefit of 3 basis points and sort of if there is some kind of interplay there with the transfer pricing mechanics that might have impacted P&C NIM as well.

Julie Levesque

Thank you, Paul. This is Julie.

Our mortgage margins, we continue to see really a competitive environment, particularly around new originations and renewals. Which resulted in pressure on our mortgage spreads during this quarter.

From a retail perspective, our mortgage portfolio economics remain supportive of earnings. We believe that our current pricing and renewal dynamics continues to provide a solid foundation for profitability going forward.

Paul Holden

Okay. Then just the second part of the question with respect to the treasury benefit.

Marie Chantal Gingras

Hi, Paul. it is Marie-Chantal here.

So first of all, treasury revenues came in a little bit stronger than what we had expected earlier this year. Those 3 basis points I will summarize it in a couple of elements.

So first, treasury, as I said, delivered strong results supported by prudent balance sheet management and robust funding and liquidity activities, discipline and efficient growth in the high quality liquid asset portfolio. So that is 1 thing.

The results were also enhanced by contributions from investment gains public and private market investments. And as we look forward, while certain components remain subject to market driven volatility, the results highlights the treasury's contribution to the overall bank financial strength.

Through disciplined management of funding liquidity and interest rate risk, as I mentioned. So to your question, if there is any link between the P&C NIM and the treasury, it is really our methodology has been stable through time.

And we are making sure that we are it is a full pass through according to our methodology. So it is it is basically been a strong performance from the treasury group.

Paul Holden

Okay. Okay.

So it is not because of, you know, the loan growth versus deposit growth in Canadian P&C and some transfer pricing into treasury that is really No. No.

Not at all. on the Canadian benefit?

Okay. that is good.

And then I guess the final question I want to ask, and I think what people are really trying to drive at here is as you are growing, mortgages more quickly and as you highlighted, with lower spreads. Like, to what extent does this weigh on the ROE?

Like, is this capital deployment that is something that is gonna be dilutive to ROE, I think, is the question people are really trying to trying to solve for.

Marie Chantal Gingras

I think, Paul, that there is a couple of things here that we can also highlight on top of the margin that is been that you have been asking on. So first of all, NII growth has been really interesting when you look at year-over-year, 10%.

And last quarter, I believe it was around 7%. So it is contributing to the overall profitability.

Of the P&C banking So we are not seeing that being a drag on the ROE. And if you look, 1 level up at the retail banking revenue growth.

As I mentioned in my remarks, it was 10% this quarter. Year over year.

So that is also certainly an interesting contributor to the ROE.

Paul Holden

Okay. I will leave it there.

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Ebrahim Poonawala

Hey. Good morning.

So I am going to ask the 15th question on the P&C NIM. But you are what I am trying to understand.

So I think what you are telling us is growing mortgages more over time you cross sell into those customers. it is very profitable.

But this big picture, does that mean that with the margin stability in the fourth quarter I think it is the lowest P&C NIM in the industry. Like, does the $2.19 continue to go lower as you pursue this strategy?

And I get that it may not impact ROE because maybe you are getting more fee growth over time, etcetera. But I am just thinking just as we think about the next year or the next couple of years, is it reasonable for us to assume that the 2.19% NIM is headed towards 2%?

Or maybe it stabilizes much before that or just is that line of thinking incorrect?

Operator

So thank you, Ebrahim, for your question.

Julie Levesque

This is Julie again. I think that, what, perhaps we need to step back and look into our current position.

Our business mix is quite different. Than our peers.

And I think the, unsecured aspect of it is underway, then this is something that is part of our strategy that we will be discussing in the upcoming months in the retail transformation. So deposit is always part of what we are achieving to do, deposit growth.

Cost efficiency as well and product diversifications. So stay tuned for what we will be announcing in the next and sharing with you on the retail transformation.

Ebrahim Poonawala

Got it. So I guess some version of shift in business mix or strategy going forward may have an impact there is, I guess, but we will wait for the next quarter.

Thank you. And then just-- yes ma'am.

Laurent, for you, just in terms of capital allocation on -- just talk to us as we think about the journey from the 13.5% to 13%. And I think you, Marie-Chantal, mentioned OSFI's change should provide even more flexibility to the industry for capital deployment.

I think in that world, how do you see that 13% eventually going I would imagine something closer to 12% Is it buybacks? Do you see a scenario where organic growth would ramp up so much that it would consume that capital, Just give us a sense of how you are thinking about it.

Laurent Ferreira

Ebrahim, it is Laurent. Thank you very much for your question.

So in terms of capital priorities, nothing has changed its organic growth. Supporting Canadians, Canadian businesses, major projects.

So my comment on, you know, this provides more room it is our focus. Our focus is to grow the balance sheet.

it is it is potentially strategic tuck ins as well and P&C and wealth. They fit the strategy.

Dividend growth, and then buyback. So the focus is not on buybacks, but, obviously, they are, you know, they are an add on to returning capital to our shareholders.

So I think Marie-Chantal mentioned it in her script and 1 of the questions. So, right now, end of 27, we have not changed our target for CET1, roughly around 13%.

We believe that we are going to be able to deliver 17 plus ROE next year. And now the change that we announced today is this is going to be achieved without AIRB coming into effect.

This quarter. So you could say that there is even more upside coming, because AIRB is down the road, and we believe that we have capital optimization coming up.

And in our plan, there is no acceleration of buybacks also over the next year to achieve these targets. So our focus is really organic growth As you can see, the growth in our balance sheet.

And as we are, encouraged also, as I mentioned, by our government's focus on the economy and major project. And you know, we are going to be there to support to support that.

And we are hopeful, and we see a lot of potential, obviously, in the economy to deploy more capital for major projects and for businesses. Does that answer your question?

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Mike Rizvanovic with Scotiabank.

Please go ahead.

Mike Rizvanovic

Hey. Good morning.

I had a follow-up for Julie on the mortgage growth. I wanted to look at the insured balances specifically.

So when I look at the banks that have reported this quarter, I see 1 of your peers is -1% sequentially on balances and insured. I see, your other peer is flat, and I look at National, and you are +8%.

Which to me looks like it is much more than just your natural sort of market share gains share gains. Normal course market share gains.

So I am wondering are you purchasing portfolios? Are you funding mortgage investment corps?

Or does this maybe include part of the CMHC insured multires that you fund with the CMV program. there is got to be something more in there than just natural market share gains.

I have never seen this level of divergence in any lending category.

Analyst

Among banks.

Julie Levesque

So, thank you for the question. it is really the strategy of both of our both of our distribution network and the broker channel.

And it is really those 2 that are driving that growth. there is nothing-- nothing specific.

So I am sorry to say that there is nothing mysterious about how we deliver those results, but it is really banking on our developing client engagement, strengthening the relationship with our customers we have and maintain a strong relationship with our broker, and those 2 are paying off perhaps a little bit of color. Q3 is historically a quarter that is stronger.

Being heavy in Quebec, in Quebec, there is a situation where there is a lot of movement on July 1, which, and moving. So there is a lot of volume coming out of that.

So Q3 has been a great and a continuum on that on that front.

Mike Rizvanovic

Okay. No.

that is helpful. And then I look at just the Ontario insured balance is up more than 9% in a single quarter.

Just really confuses me as to how you could roll that quickly. I guess the other thing is, are you changing anything in that distribution?

You mentioned the broker channel. You adding maybe more brokers or changing anything on your risk parameters here?

To fund this growth?

Julie Levesque

So the, the broker channel, we have not yet deployed, additional broker outside of Quebec. You probably saw the announcement First National that was done in Q2.

Where it is a new partnership that we have, and we deploy new brokers across Canada. That being said, we are growing the business outside of Quebec.

And as I mentioned earlier, the acquisition of CWB, it allows us to have more visibility. We allows us to have a sales force that is more present.

MDMs, and potentially brokers. So that is where the growth is coming from.

Jean-Sébastien Grisé

And maybe, I would add that maybe it is JS. So definitely, no change, in risk parameters when you look at our new cohorts that we have originated.

In terms of TDS, in terms of LTI, terms of credit scores, it is very, very flat And also, just to maybe help, typically, 1 of the barriers for insured mortgages was the size of mortgages. As we have seen, the Ontario market correct a little bit, there is going to be a naturally higher number of clients that could qualify for insured mortgages.

So it brings it down a little bit like the Quebec market where you have lower individual mortgages, so higher percentage of insured typically. I think that is another, force at play?

Mike Rizvanovic

K. Thank you.

Thanks for the insight. Very helpful.

Operator

And that concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Laurent Ferreira, for closing comments.

Laurent Ferreira

Thank you. To all our clients affected by the current conflict, just I want to mention that we are there to help you, and we will keep supporting the Canadian economy.

Thank you again for joining us today.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.