Ashok Leyland Limited

Ashok Leyland Limited

146.03
INR
-0.71
(-0.48%)
6.35EPS
26.64P/E
926.31BMarket Cap
Nov 06Next Earn

Q1 FY2027 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 14, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Ashok Leyland Q1 FY27 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.

Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. Joseph George from IIFL Capital.

Thank you, and over to you. Mr.

Joseph?

Joseph George

Yes.

Operator

Yes, now you're audible. Please go ahead.

Joseph George

Thank you, Ananya. Good evening, everyone.

On behalf of IIFL Capital, I welcome you all to the 1Q FY27 results conference call of Ashok Leyland. I also welcome the senior management of Ashok Leyland: Mr.

Shenu Agarwal, Managing Director and CEO; Mr. K.

M. Balaji, Whole-Time Director and CFO; and the Investor Relations team.

Now, I will hand over the call to Mr. Shenu Agarwal.

Over to you, sir.

Shenu Agarwal

Good evening, everyone, and thank you for your trust in Ashok Leyland as always. As we all have witnessed, Q1 this year was marked by various geopolitical uncertainties, translating into widespread challenges for the Indian automotive industry.

The sequence of events that unfolded had put on test industry's execution capabilities and supply chain resilience, and also raised questions on the impact on customer sentiment and market demand. Ashok Leyland has been able to weather these volatilities well, and I'm happy to report yet another quarter of strong financial performance for the company.

For Q1 FY27, we achieved all-time high CV volume, revenue, profit, and cash surplus. Continuing from FY26 historic records, we could deliver broad-based growth across all our core businesses, demonstrating the resilience of our operations and the trust our supply chain partners and customers place in us.

Q1 started with moderate CV industry volume growth due to fuel supply and pricing issues. However, it bounced back strongly in June once the situation stabilized.

Overall in Q1, the domestic MHCV industry volume grew by 13% on YoY basis, while the domestic LCV Vahan industry grew by 17%. This is indeed a strong performance, especially given the headwinds faced during the period.

This robust momentum demonstrates strong industry fundamentals and sustained growth potential of the Indian CV industry. Ashok Leyland domestic MHCV truck volume for the quarter was at 22,998 units, higher 15% YoY basis.

Our bus volume declined in the same period, mainly in the STU segment, as the company decided not to take some unprofitable orders. In the medium-sized bus segment, which is about two-thirds of the total bus industry and is one of the company's focus areas for growth, we did better than the industry and increased our share.

Overall, Ashok Leyland domestic MHCV market share stood at 29% for the period. Ashok Leyland domestic LCV off-take volume for Quarter 1 was 18,874 units, higher 21% YoY.

This is the highest-ever Q1 volume recorded in LCV business. LCV Vahan market share for Q1 was 13.2% with a gain of 30 basis points YoY.

Our exports volume for the quarter was 2,461, lower 18% YoY. The war situation posed major logistical challenges in our RAK-based plant in UAE, impacting our GCC volumes.

SAARC and Africa volumes, however, grew substantially, negating the impact to some extent. With improving situation, we are confident of reviving the GCC volumes and make up for the losses in the remaining year.

Our foray into ASEAN in establishing it as our fourth home market outside India is progressing quite well. Our overall CV volumes at 48,673 units is a new peak for Quarter 1.

This includes defense vehicles. Our non-CV businesses maintained their growth streak and remained untouched by the recent global headwinds.

Domestic aftermarket revenue for the co-

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the line for management has dropped. Please wait while we reconnect.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reconnected with management's line. Please continue.

Shenu Agarwal

Yes. Thank you.

Thank you. I I'll start from where I I left.

Overall CV volumes at 48,673 units is a new peak for Quarter 1. This includes defense vehicles.

Our non-CV businesses maintained their growth streak and remained untouched by the recent global headwinds. Domestic aftermarket revenue for the quarter was up 12.7% YoY.

Revenue from power solutions business was higher by 51% YoY. Revenue from defense business was higher 64% YoY.

Defense order book and tender win pipeline remains ever strong. Coming to financial performance, Ashok Leyland achieved a record Quarter 1 revenue at ₹9,634 crore, higher by 10% YoY.

Despite record revenues, the EBITDA was flat at ₹970 crore as compared to same quarter last year. EBITDA margin was 10.1%, 100 basis points lower on YoY basis.

We witnessed rising trends in the material cost owing to supply chain disruptions and commodity pressures. The company took several initiatives to address the situation, including better price realization, rigorous cost-saving efforts, product and business mix improvement, and opportunity-based inventory buildup.

These initiatives helped us in mitigating any significant gross margin contraction. As a percentage of revenue, the material cost stood at 71.5% for the quarter, higher by 90 basis points YoY, but in line with Q4.

PBT for the quarter was at ₹830 crore, higher 4% YoY. Profit after tax was at ₹609 crore, higher 3% YoY.

CapEx for the quarter was at ₹153 crores. New products, including future technology development, alternate powertrain technologies, and EVs, remain the focus areas for the new CapEx.

Investments in subsidiaries in Q1 was at ₹10 crores. Our cash position, net of debt, has got stronger on YoY basis.

We had net cash of ₹2,252 crores at the end of the year, an increase—at the end of the quarter, an increase of more than ₹1,431 crore on YoY basis. While in the short run, we are taking aggressive measures to mitigate the impact of rising material costs, our long-term focus remains intact.

We are resolutely pursuing the path of premiumization, working diligently on delighting our customers with superior products and services, and maintaining operational discipline. In terms of new products, the highlight of the quarter was introduction of the new air suspension technology in multi-axle trucks, which is an industry first and provides our customers industry-best payload and TCO.

This adds to our long list of innovations which have always defined Ashok Leyland brand and its DNA for the last 78 years. We are also seeing very strong customer reception of our other recently launched range of trucks: the Hippo tractors and the Taurus tippers, with industry-best power and torque.

Our new product pipeline remains strong with many more launches slated for the rest of the year. Creating a new industry benchmark in service delivery remains our key focus.

Our flagship program, DHRUV, is continuing to make progress with all our service processes now becoming automated and intelligent with deployment of AI and other digital tools. We continue to add more touch points.

During the quarter, we added 33 touch points in our MHCV and LCV businesses. The focus of new additions continues in north and east region, where we have a higher headroom.

At the end of the quarter, Ashok Leyland network has a total of 2,137 touch points: 1,177 for MHCV and 960 for LCV. Our EV subsidiary, Switch Mobility India, recently bagged an order of 650 electric buses.

With this, Switch Mobility has a healthy order book of 2,100 e-buses. During the quarter, Switch Mobility delivered 225 electric buses and close to 300 electric light commercial vehicles.

OHM Mobility, our e-MaaS subsidiary, improved operational fleet to over 1,900 e-buses with over 500 units added during the quarter. OHM is progressing well towards its PAT break-even target, which we hope to achieve in the near future.

Hinduja Leyland Finance, our vehicle financing subsidiary, delivered robust growth in the quarter, with its AUM expanding by 20% year-on-year to ₹60,310 crores. Pre-provisioning operating profit increased by 56% to ₹587 crore from ₹376 crores in June '25, while PAT grew by 37% to ₹123 crore from ₹89 crore last year.

Hinduja Housing Finance similarly saw its AUM grow by 13% YoY to ₹16,157 crores. Total gross income of ₹470 crore, pre-provisioning operating profit of ₹136 crore, and a PAT of ₹69 crore.

PAT was at the same level as last year. Both HLF and HHF maintained healthy asset quality, with consolidated net NPAs at 2.1% on book basis.

Delivering solid profitability alongside prudent risk management augurs well for future growth of both the financial companies. Reverse merger of HLF with NDL Ventures is progressing as per plan.

NDL Ventures Limited and Hinduja Leyland Finance Limited have received the requisite approvals from their equity shareholders and unsecured creditors. The entities will now approach the NCLT for the requisite approvals and, upon receipt, will proceed with the merger and the listing process.

ESG commitments remain close to our heart. Our Road to School and Road to Livelihood programs continue to grow, extending their reach to about 6.4 lakh students now.

In our commitment towards RE100, we achieved 77% RE status, with Tamil Nadu plants now at 91%. In summary, Q1 performance corroborates to our commitment to sustainable and profitable growth.

Our business and financial results clearly demonstrate that our processes and management systems are robust and resilient enough to absorb any external shocks, enabling us to maintain focus on future value creation. In the recently concluded Monetary Policy Committee meeting, RBI, while maintaining a neutral stance and retaining key interest rates, has revised GDP growth outlook for the year to 6.7%.

This indicates that macros are getting favorable. Looking forward, we believe that the overall demand drivers for commercial vehicles remain positive.

We remain mindful of the key risks, particularly the elevated commodity prices, but shall continue to put all efforts to achieve better price realization and mix, higher cost savings, and enhanced operational discipline. Our foundations remain strong.

We will keep innovating, attuned to our customers' needs, while maintaining focus on prudent fiscal management. We will navigate the road ahead with even more rigor and heightened focus on creating long-term value for our stakeholders.

Thank you once again for your continued trust in Ashok Leyland. Can I now hand it over to the moderator?

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question-and-answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.

Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.

The first question is from the line of Gunjan Prithyani from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Gunjan Prithyani

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions.

My first question is just to get a little bit better color on the margin delivery for this quarter. It's a commendable gross margin delivery, just trying to get some more information on what was the sort of gross RM headwind that we saw in this quarter, how were we able to offset this through price hikes, some color on price hikes taken.

Maybe also some sense on how do we think about the next quarter? Like you pointed out, there are more elevated cost headwinds, right?

What is the sort of pending RM impact yet to reflect in Quarter 2?

Shenu Agarwal

Thank you. Thanks for your question, Gunjan.

Actually, there was increase We faced increase in commodity prices in this quarter. The the increase was there, but what one good thing that has happened in this quarter is that we could consume most of the item from our opening inventory.

We had maintained comfortable inventory both in terms of production inventory, as well as in terms of the finished inventory. We could use about 1/5 to 1/4 of the total requirements in this quarter from the opening thing.

That what that has done is that has prevented us from from charging the commodity cost increases that has happened during the quarter. Only only the 4/5 of the total costs that have been that have been incurred during the quarter has got into the P&L, in the sense that the value of these increases have got added to the stock.

When these vehicles get sold subsequently, from the opening inventory, we'll get the benefit, and the charge will also flow as and when the production from the current year gets sold more and more when it gets sold in the subsequent quarters. This has really helped us helped us in reducing the cost.

The benefit of that is also is what you are seeing by way of better gross margin and the lower material cost. This also, adding to this material cost increases, the overheads also will have to be added for the stock, for the vehicles which are in stock.

For us, we carried about about 6,000 vehicles at the opening level, and again, this 6,000 level of stock at the opening level, it got increased to 8,000 level as at the quarter end. This also helped us because many of the overheads that have been incurred during the quarter have also been added to the increase increased inventory.

We got a good benefit from the inventorization, which has got added to the cost of stock and not to the P&L. These cost will get will find its way to the P&L as and when the vehicles gets sold in the coming months.

Balaji Kidambi Mani

Gunjan, just to add to that, so that was one. The other was also we accelerated some of the cost savings.

We had started a project a couple of quarters back which we internally call Achieve 2K. That project is now delivering some benefits, but it will deliver many more significant benefits in the upcoming quarters.

Then also the focus was on improving the mix from the product side, also from the business side. We also took some pricing actions.

As a result of that, we could negate, I would say, most of the impact coming from the commodity side.

Shenu Agarwal

In addition to that, Gunjan, we also took a price increase. Price increase during the quarter was about 1 1.2% to 1.25%.

That also helped us in negating the commodity cost increases. In a way, I can say that the commodity cost increase got negated 50% by way of the price increases, and another 50% by way of the benefit from the cost savings, as well as the inventorization impact.

Gunjan Prithyani

How do we think about next quarter then? Does it mean that because we were able to have inventory which was at the lower cost, does it mean that Q2 we see a sharper hit?

This is a very useful color, but just trying to think how does Q2 look in context of incremental costs yet to hit the P&L and pricing action, cost reduction? Should we be able to neutralize the impact heading into Quarter 2?

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the line for the management has been disconnected. Please wait while we reconnect.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have the management line back with us. Please continue with your question.

Balaji Kidambi Mani

Actually, I was answering Gunjan's question. Gunjan was asking whether the impact of that will be felt in the subsequent quarters.

The impact will be there in the subsequent quarters, but will not be felt in a big way. It depends on the quantum of the vehicles which are getting sold, and it will not be very very significant.

Shenu Agarwal

Just to add on that, the challenges we see continuing on the commodity price side. The respite from that, we think will come in Q3 and Q4 only.

It will be a challenging quarter, but then we are accelerating a few things internally, looking again at those levers that I just described: product mix and business mix, pricing. We have again taken some price increase from July.

We are considering some more before the quarter is over. Also, we are looking at accelerating some cost savings.

Gunjan Prithyani

Got it. My second question is on the investments bit.

The Switch bit is a bit clear that there is a debt repayment—the Optare bit. This housing finance, it'll be good to hear your rationale because I thought we are demerging the entity, the finance entity, and they were to be on their own in terms of funding the growth.

This incremental investment in the housing finance, if you can give some sense how to think about it?

Balaji Kidambi Mani

I would like to clarify to everybody who are present in this call. On Optare, as you rightly said, actually, I've been indicating this literally in every call.

In FY25, Q4 FY25 call, I indicated, and in Q4 FY26 call also, I indicated. We had debt of about £80 million.

We paid about £30 million last year, and now we have about £50 million debt which is there, and we don't want to incur interest cost unnecessarily. Now we are trying to pay another £25 million by this year, and we will pay another £25 million by next year.

That is the plan. I think I want everybody to have clarity on this.

This is not something new. I have spoken about this in the last two years, and I've been progressively repaying this loan.

This is nothing new. This is not a surprise at all.

The second aspect which you said on the HHF, the HLF actually, it is an investment. It is a growth capital which we are giving.

The merger is in progress as far as HLF is concerned, and the capital structure of HLFL cannot be disturbed at this point of time. We thought that this HHF growth will be quite good, and the AUM of this housing finance, it is growing at about 34% CAGR in the last four years.

The growth trajectory has been quite good, and the net worth growth is about 24%. We thought that we will invest, and the valuation also will be at arm's length, and it is done by an independent valuer.

We thought that we'll invest some money in the housing finance because we cannot also disturb by way of investment since the approval from the NCLT is at an advanced stage now.

Gunjan Prithyani

Okay. Got it.

That is clear. I'll join back the queue.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Binay Singh from Morgan Stanley.

Please go ahead.

Binay Singh

Hi, team. Thanks for the opportunity.

Just carrying on the earlier question, just on your comment on future gross margins. Did you say Q2 is challenging?

I couldn't sort of capture. What were you trying to convey?

Is the incremental gross margin hit manageable or it comes in second half, just to sort of be clear on that?

Shenu Agarwal

Binay, thanks for your question. You are asking about this inventorization bit or you want to understand the overall margin outlook for Q2?

Binay Singh

Just overall the gross margin outlook that looking at the commodity pressure that you see today, do you think you'll be able to sustain this margin level?

Shenu Agarwal

Listen. There would be few things we have to keep in mind while looking at Quarter 2 gross margin.

One thing I clearly said that the commodity pricing would continue to pose a challenge, which means that the impact purely from the commodity side may be a little bit higher than what we faced in Q1. Okay?

This situation will only improve, what is our current estimate, is from Q3 and largely from Q4. Okay?

There should be some turnaround in the situation starting Q3. That is one.

Now, how much we can manage this is basically two or three factors. One is that our focus now has turned into more profitable segments, which is like higher horsepower segments.

In my note, I described that Taurus and Hippo that we had launched are gaining lot of momentum, and these are high horsepower heavy-duty trucks, where margin equation is better. Also, we have just launched these air suspension trucks.

We had lost some margin and market share in Quarter 1 on the multi-axle trucks, but now with air suspension trucks, we hope that we will more than recover that. Right?

Also we are trying to see, as in Q1 you have noticed that power solutions business, defense business, LCV business, their growth rates were much higher. Similarly, we are trying to see how much orders from defense, PSB, etc., we can execute.

Like I said, we have already taken a small price increase from July 1, and we are looking or we are trying to get one more before the end of the quarter. Right?

I cannot at this time tell you exactly what the situation would be on gross margin, but yeah, you keep two things in mind: that commodity gross costs would be even higher than Q1, but we have a few levers at our hand to work around that.

Binay Singh

Thanks. That is helpful.

My second question is on the truck mix. We talked about it earlier also that we've been seeing ICV growth has been higher than heavy truck growth, and we were expecting sort of some reversal in trends.

How do you see rest of the year truck mix to play out?

Shenu Agarwal

Far ICV growth has been higher because earlier, like in the previous calls, we explained, after GST recalibration happened, the maximum impact or the early impact was supposed to be on vehicles which are mostly going into non-fleets, into retail market, because those buyers would see this impact immediately in terms of pricing. For other buyers, like fleet owners or users of heavy-duty trucks, this will happen with a delay.

Every quarter we are now seeing that the situation is improving. I think in Q2, the situation should actually drastically improve both at the industry level and more so at Ashok Leyland level.

Now since we have fully ramped up our Hippo and Taurus, and now we have these air suspension on the MAV side also, you would see that I'm saying industry level should also improve, but I'm saying we should be able to improve even more.

Binay Singh

Thanks. Lastly, any just comment on domestic truck growth that you expect this year?

Shenu Agarwal

Domestic truck?

Binay Singh

Yeah.

Shenu Agarwal

Sorry, what about domestic truck?

Binay Singh

The volume growth outlook, the volume outlook.

Shenu Agarwal

Oh yeah. Quarter 1 has gone pretty well, and that was despite a bad May.

May growth was only I think 1 or 2% in MHCV, but June then bounced back very sharply. Like I said in my note, we have never seen this happening in the CV industry actually.

Because whenever there is an external factor which is affecting the sentiment, it takes a lot of time for the industry to recover from this. Here in this case, as soon as the situation stabilized towards end of May, we saw that huge momentum coming back in June, and June industry grew by more than 20%.

That momentum continued in July, because July MHCV industry growth was also more than 20%. August, the sentiment is looking also quite positive.

Definitely, against a 14 13, 14% growth in Q1, the growth should be much better in Q2.

Binay Singh

Great. Thanks, team.

Thanks for the detailed response.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pramod Kumar from UBS.

Please go ahead.

Pramod Kumar

Thanks a lot for the opportunity, sir. My first question is clarification on the commodity outlook what you gave, that from 3Q you see a bit of a softening.

I just want to understand what is driving that visibility, sir, because generally what we understand is steel prices are elevated, natural rubber is hitting new highs, which are two biggest cost items. Just want to understand what's the visibility you are having and what kind of inputs which is having that assessment, sir?

Shenu Agarwal

Pramod. Basically, we rely on a lot of factors.

We talk to the suppliers. We look at various credible reports, the SIAM report, CRISIL report, other reports.

Based on that, current estimate is that Quarter 2 will be the peak. Quarter 3, there should be some softening.

Of course, you are right about natural rubber, etc. Right?

Quarter 3, overall I'm talking, there should be some level of softening, and then Quarter 4, we should see some kind of a turnaround. Based on several factors, yeah, we can maybe separately talk about these in detail later.

Pramod Kumar

Sure, sir. The question now is on the price hike, sir.

What's the quantification? Can you quantify the price hike what you've taken so far in this quarter?

Shenu Agarwal

In July, on the MHCV side, we have taken more than 1% in July. On LCV side, we have taken more than 2% in July.

As I said, we are trying to see if either through price increases or through discount optimization, we can improve price realization even beyond this.

Pramod Kumar

Okay. Finally on the other cost Yeah, Balaji sir, yeah.

Balaji Kidambi Mani

Cumulatively, we would have taken about 2 2.25% price increase for MHCV, and more than 3.5% for light commercial vehicles from the beginning of this financial year.

Pramod Kumar

Beginning of this financial year. That's helpful.

On the other cost elements, Balaji, as in on your other employee costs, other expenditure, how should we see the trend going forward because that will be the additional bit which we need to watch out for when we talk about margin? Another follow-up is on to Shenu sir, as in would you, given the current momentum in the first 4-5 months, would you kind of say that the industry is on track to achieve double-digit growth, sir, on a full-year basis?

Thank you.

Balaji Kidambi Mani

On the cost side, actually, you will see marginal increase in the manpower cost because our increment cycle, it starts from July of every year, every financial year. You will see marginal 4, 5% increase in the manpower cost over the previous quarter.

As far as rest of the costs are concerned, we would like to contain and then operate at the current levels or maybe we will target to operate at the lower levels because we have started many programs internally to monitor the cost, especially on the administration overhead side. We have created a centralized team to do the commercial negotiations and bring down the cost.

The administration overhead cost, which was erstwhile decentralized and was decided at the various parts of the country, now any amount which is beyond ₹50 lakhs, it gets referred to a centralized cell which monitors and then reduces the cost by way of commercial negotiations. You will see and you can expect a tighter control on the costs in the coming quarters also.

Shenu Agarwal

Pramod, on the industry outlook, we have a good visibility. I think we are very confident the industry will continue its current momentum until about let us say October, September or October.

Beyond that, there was kind of a high base of last year that we will face, because industry started growing by about 20, 21% starting October, November last year. Therefore, I want to be a little bit conservative when I am estimating industry momentum beyond October.

Overall, I would say

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the line for the management has dropped again. Please wait while we reconnect.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have the management back online with us. Please continue with your question.

Shenu Agarwal

Sorry about this interruption happening again and again because of some technical glitch. Pramod, what I was telling you about the industry is that even if we take a conservative outlook for the second half of the year, let us say October, November onwards, we still believe that industry has potential to grow by high single digit.

This is for MHCV. For LCV, the LCV outlook is actually slightly better than this.

That is what we are estimating now.

Pramod Kumar

Best of luck, sir. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Hiranandani from PhillipCapital.

Please go ahead.

Amit Hiranandani

Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, this LCV's market share since last 5-6 years has been broadly stable and hovering around 11%.

We understand that the competitive intensity is pretty tough. Can you please highlight the company's plans and steps taking to improve the share here?

Shenu Agarwal

Two things, Amit, that I want to say. Firstly, historically since we launched LCV products about 10, 12, 13 years ago, we had only been talking about our market share in 2 to 3.5 ton, because that is where we had products.

Now, we change this view about a year back when we had introduced this product called Saathi, which is actually in 2 to 3.5 ton, but is but is targeting the premium and top of sub-2 ton customers. We said that, okay, let us not if let us not look at just 2 to 3.5 ton, but look at the entire LCV market, and that is how we shifted to Vahan market share.

Now, if you look at Vahan market share, as far as I remember, I think each quarter of the last year and even in Quarter 1, we have gained continuously quarter on quarter. Right?

Now, the whole outlook of LCV has now changed within Ashok Leyland. We don't want us to be restricted in our thinking to 2 and 2 to 3.5 ton.

We want to come up with products across the LCV range, because we know that we are participating only in 50% of the industry and there is a huge headroom if we come with come up with additional products. There are some products in pipeline, which, of course, I cannot reveal right now just because of confidentiality reasons, but but there are some product pipeline, and the whole notion now at Ashok Leyland on the LCV market is to see what we can do in the entire market rather than restricting ourselves to half of the market.

Amit Hiranandani

Right. Sir, secondly, on the buses side, we have been observing

Operator

Sorry to interrupt. Sorry to interrupt, Mr.

Amit. Could you please get in the queue for any follow-up questions?

Amit Hiranandani

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order for the management to address questions from all participants in the conference, please limit your questions to one per participant.

I repeat, please limit your questions to one per participant. The next question is from the line of Raghunandhan NL from Nuvama Asset Management.

Please go ahead.

Raghunandhan Narayanasamy Lakshmanan

Good evening, Shenu sir and Balaji sir. Sir, there has been a very strong growth from June.

The recovery has continued to July, and as you said, to August. What are the drivers here?

Is it better freight availability, infrastructure spending, replacement demand, and how is the demand from large, medium, small operators?

Shenu Agarwal

Raghu, thank you for that question. You're right.

We were ourselves a little bit surprised when there was such a huge turnaround from May to June. Bounce back, I would say.

As April was roughly 12, 13% industry growth on MHCV, then May was 1 or 2%, and June was about 20%. Then it continued in July, and I am hoping it will continue in August as well.

The triggers or the drivers are very clear now. We have always been saying that the CV industry is sitting on a huge potential largely because of the replacement demand that can generate the aging of the fleet and all those things we spoke about.

I think it was just waiting for a trigger, which happened with GST 2.0 or GST optimization. Since then, we have really seen very high growth numbers, which is a clear indication that the TCO or the economics of buying a BS-VI truck versus operating a BS-II or BS-IV has really gotten much stronger.

Right? That trigger I think was needed, and that trigger has happened.

It should continue actually for many more quarters to come, because it will take a few years to actually bring down or to, let us say, to take out all the BS-II, BS-III, BS-IV trucks out of the equation. Now, that is the primary reason of this significant growth, but yes, other factors are also helping: the interest rate, the availability of finance, the uptick in the infrastructure segment, etc.

Everything is contributing to this.

Raghunandhan Narayanasamy Lakshmanan

Thank you for highlighting that, sir. On the replacement demand side, trying to get a little more thought, fleet age being high at 10 years is one of the drivers of replacement demand.

How much should be the ideal average fleet age based on

Operator

Sorry to interrupt. Sorry to interrupt.

Could you please get back in the queue for any follow-up questions?

Raghunandhan Narayanasamy Lakshmanan

Sure. Thank you, sir, and wishing all the best.

Operator

Reminder for all participants, please limit your questions to one per participant. Thank you.

The next question is from the line of Harshit Mittal from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Mr. Harshit, you have been unmuted.

Please go ahead. We will move on the next participant.

Next question is from the line of Kapil Singh from Nomura Wealth Management. Please go ahead.

Kapil Singh

Hello. Good evening, sir.

This is Kapil from Nomura. If you could just talk about the export outlook and also share the CapEx and investment outlook for the full year FY27?

Shenu Agarwal

Kapil, thank thank you for those those items. Export, like I described in my opening statement, we had a tough time in Quarter 1, but we believe that it is already behind us now.

Basically, what happened was that, we have a we have a facility in RAK, Ras Al Khaimah in UAE, where we assemble all our products for the GCC markets. That facility had to almost stop working in April and some parts of May, and we had both the kinds of problems: the labor problem and also the material problem, basically local components that we procured, from countries around.

We had to pretty much kind of shut down the operations or yeah, and then since then, since the situation has stabilized now, now the factory is now last month we did 600 units there, this month we are expecting 700, and next month we will come to our peak production of 800, which the factory has a capacity of only 600, but we were running it at 800 with some temporary arrangements. We are hoping to get it back to 800.

Fortunately, we have not lost any retails there in the GCC segment. It's basically reduction of wholesale and reduction of stocks at every point, which is reflecting in our Q Q1 de-growth in exports.

Fortunately, again, that SAARC and Africa, we could really pull up. Now if you look at their our growth rates in those regions, it's like really quite high.

It's actually in the range of 40 to 60% growth quarter on year on year. GCC, like I said, seems to be something that we can recover the wholesale losses, because there have been not any significant losses on the retail side.

As soon as the plant is up and coming, we will start pumping those pumping the units back into dealer stock. Also, we are now expediting our new plant in Saudi.

Originally, the plan was to have it up and running in about 18 to 24 months, we are trying to see how much we can accelerate that, because the demand momentum in GCC is still very strong despite all the volatilities we have seen. The other question I think was on the CapEx and investments.

We have increased our CapEx investment outlay in last couple of years. We were generally doing about ₹400, ₹500 crores, and in last 2 years, we are in the range of ₹900, ₹1,000 crores.

As company has more cash available to invest in its future growth, we would be looking at various new technologies, new products, white spaces where we are not there. Actually, from a CapEx point of view, this is a good time for us, because if we can think of those differentiated products and white spaces that we want to cover in future, then that will actually help us lay down a good growth path for the company in the next 5 years or so.

CapEx will continue to increase over next 2 to 3 years. We can give you some more specific numbers once we have the whole plan ready.

Moderator?

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chandramouli Muthiah from Goldman Sachs India.

Please go ahead.

Chandramouli Muthiah

Hi. Good evening, and thank you for taking my questions.

My question is on the regulatory outlook for the CV industry over the next 1 to 2 years. It looks like from next year onwards, there might be mandatory mechanized load covers, audiovisual alerts, sort of advanced braking norms.

Just want to understand what the potential increase in price might have to be if these were all to come through. Just related to that, if you could give us some color on how the negotiations are going between the government and the industry body on possible BS-VII at some point over the next 2 or 3 years.

Thank you.

Shenu Agarwal

Chandramouli, thank you for that question. We know that regulatory burden on the CV industry has been very high compared to other auto industries.

We are very used to this, and the whole idea is to see how we can comply with the regulations, but also create some value for the customer. That is a whole challenge.

Now it may happen with a slight lag, etc., but I think most of the companies, including our peers, will try to create that value for the customer, which means that there has to be a positive TCO impact even if the prices go up. I think Indian consumer of CVs, especially the fleet owners, have also now changed quite a bit in last five or five years or so.

They are actually increasingly looking at value rather than only price, because if they get a TCO benefit even by paying a little bit more, we see that they lap onto it. We saw this recently when AC was mandated, and everybody had a different view in this industry, but as soon as AC was mandated, people just lapped onto it.

I told you, I think, in the last call that we had created a stock of non-AC trucks that we thought that a lot of customers would ask for it, because they don't want to go for AC and the associated price increase of ₹30,000 to ₹50,000. Right?

To our surprise, we had really difficulty in liquidating that non-AC stock later. I think the market is changing.

The challenge, of course, remains of the regulatory-related cost increases, but the idea is how we can make it relevant for the customer by impacting the TCO positively. We are working on those issues.

Now on BS-VI, of course, the final notification is yet to come. It will take some more time, but discussions are going on.

My personal opinion is BS-VII, we should not see in India in CV before 2031, and it could also be 2032.

Chandramouli Muthiah

Got it. That's helpful.

Thank you very much, and all the best.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yash Agrawal from Nirmal Bang Securities.

Please go ahead.

Yash Agrawal

Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.

As we have seen that we have made significant progress in diversifying from our core truck business through defense, power solution, aftermarket, EVs. I just wanted to understand how we see mix evolving in next 3 to 5 years

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the line for the management has dropped again. Please wait while we reconnect.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have the management back online with us. Please continue with your question.

Yash Agrawal

Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.

I just wanted to get an update on as Ashok Leyland has made significant progress in diversifying beyond its core truck business through defense, power solution, aftermarket, and EVs. Where do you see this mix evolving over next 3 to 5 years?

How is the margin profile for these businesses versus truck business?

Shenu Agarwal

Oh, very good question actually, because I say good because that is one of our key focus areas, key strategies at Ashok Leyland, that how we can, without losing focus on our core for sure, how we can enhance our other businesses, because those businesses offer better margin opportunity. Also, they have a huge headroom available.

For example, defense. We can do a lot there.

There has been a plan which has been put together on each of these: aftermarket, EVs, IO, defense, power solutions, and these plans are very, very aggressive. The first milestone that we want to achieve is to make sure that we have enough non-MHCV domestic business, which can take care of the complete fixed cost of the company.

That we have made huge improvement there. If you look at three or four years ago, we had to sell about 6,000 to 7,000 units per month of MHCV trucks in domestic market to take care of the fixed cost of the company.

Now, of course, we have reduced the fixed cost as a percentage, but also the fact is we have grown the non-MHCV domestic business. Now that break-even point measured as the number of units of MHCV trucks we have to sell domestically to take care of the fixed cost, has come down to I believe something around 1,000 to 1,500 units.

Right? We have made a lot of progress with this diversification.

Importantly, this milestone is important because some of us believe that MHCV industry, domestic industry, is cyclical in nature, and therefore we want to reduce that dependency on it. Right?

Even if it goes down, then we don't get hit as a company, and we can still pursue our long-term value creation. That is the first milestone.

Of course, we want to do much more than this on the non-MHCV businesses. What Shenu indicated, 1,000 to 1,500 units, is on a per-month basis.

Yash Agrawal

Okay.

Shenu Agarwal

Yeah.

Yash Agrawal

One thing you mentioned in the starting of the call, that you added 33 touch points during Q1. Like in previous calls, you have mentioned on focusing on increasing touch points in non-south regions.

How has our share evolved in non-south versus south in last few years?

Shenu Agarwal

Oh, we have done very good progress. I would say in some of the zones like north, we have done good progress.

If you look at our north market share, I don't remember the exact time, but probably 4 years ago or 5 years ago, then north we were at 15% or so, just giving you ballpark numbers, huh? Now we should be touching 30% anytime.

We are already at 27% or so in north. Right?

Similarly, we have made progress in central. East is something we had made quite a bit of progress, but then we had some new issues that popped up.

East, we need to do a little bit more work now going forward. The formula for north, center, and east is quite clear in our mind now.

Yash Agrawal

Sir. Thank you.

I will get back to the queue.

Shenu Agarwal

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mukesh Saraf from Avendus Spark.

Please go ahead.

Mukesh Saraf

Yes, sir. Good evening, and thank you for the opportunity.

My question is on the competitive intensity in the MAV segment. We noticed competition launching certain products with higher payload and then Ashok Leyland further launching products with air suspension, which enhances payload even further.

The question here is, is there a heightened competitive intensity right now in the MAV segment? Is this a precursor to probably some discounting or you don't think that's the case and this is just regular kind of product upgrades?

Shenu Agarwal

Thank you, Mukesh. Very good question actually, because it just kind of is in line with our theory at Ashok Leyland of premiumization.

Just looking at what was launched in the market 3 months or 4 months ago,

Mukesh Saraf

yeah,

Shenu Agarwal

in confidence, I can tell you that we had looked at this kind of a product about 3 years ago, and we decided not to launch it, right, because it had certain issues with the way it was designed or it ought to be designed, huh? Therefore, at that time, when we rejected this idea, we said, okay, what is a better engineering way to give the same thing to the customer or even better thing to the customer, but is designed in a proper way?

That's when we had started this air suspension project. This is not a quick response from our side.

This project was started about 2.5, 3 years ago. Now, fortunately, when this launch happened, we were quite ready with this new product.

You can see the difference. If you understand a little bit about this, what got launched and what we have launched, then there is

Mukesh Saraf

a

Shenu Agarwal

significantly different, better-engineered solution. Payload also is twice, we are offering 4-ton extra payload as against 2-ton.

This is what actually we want to do in our company. We want to give the right solution, not a shortcut solution, but the right solution to the customer, which really improves customer TCO.

Air suspension is a brilliant example of that. It's not that air suspension cannot be done by others.

I think in 6 months or 12 months, then somebody else will also bring it. Right?

The fact is this is the first time in India. The fact is customers are loving this option.

The fact is that if we continue to keep our innovation pipeline robust, then we might come up with some more innovations in next few quarters, huh?

Mukesh Saraf

Right, sir. Understood.

Thank you. Thanks for that.

I'll get back in the queue.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Himanshu Singh from Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Funds.

Please go ahead.

Himanshu Singh

Hi. Thank you for the opportunity.

Sir, just wanted to understand was there any issues on production for the buses side, and has that been resolved?

Shenu Agarwal

No, there was no issue on the production side. If you look at the bus market, I'm just simplifying it for right now, the bus market is in two parts.

One is the bigger buses, or let's say heavy-duty buses, which is 1/3 of the market, and then there are medium-sized buses, which is 2/3 of the market. Historically, if you see, in the heavy-duty buses, we had a market share always of 60 to 80%, right, but on the smaller buses, we had a market share of only 15% or so until a few years back.

Two things we were very clear in mind: that we wanted to increase our market share in the two-thirds of this bus industry, which is a medium-sized vehicles, which is for school and staff, and also we want to make sure that we are not losing money on the heavy-duty side, because heavy-duty side is also tender business. Right?

Now we are very clear how we want to approach this bus business. On the heavy-duty side, if there is a unprofitable tender, we are very clear we will not take it, even if we lose little bit of market share temporarily.

In the two-thirds of the industry, which is private, which is not tender, which is mostly school and staff, that is where we are focusing with lot of new products, lot of new improvements. Very happy to say that our market share in last 3-4 years have gone from 15% to close to 25% now in that medium bus segment.

I think directionally we are on the right track, but yes, Quarter 1, we had to face loss of market share because we decided not to participate in some unprofitable tenders on the heavy-duty bus side.

Himanshu Singh

Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. That was the last question for today.

I now hand over to the management for closing remarks. Over to you.

No,

Shenu Agarwal

I would just like to say thank you to everyone who participated today in the call. As I said, we have a dichotomy of a situation right now.

While on the top line side, on the industry side, we know that the industry's momentum is very, very strong, and we would like to capture that for Ashok Leyland as much as we can. On the other side, we have a situation on raw material commodity prices, which I do believe is temporary and it should subside in the next few quarters.

In the meanwhile, we will keep our long-term focus, will not let it dilute because of the commodity pressure. At the same time, we will keep a very heightened operational discipline, whether it is in terms of cost or in terms of any savings or mix improvement, pricing, etc.

We hope to see you again at end of Quarter 2. Thank you.

Balaji Kidambi Mani

Thank you.

Operator

On behalf of IIFL Capital, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.