Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited Q3 FY26 earnings conference call, hosted by Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited. As a reminder, all participants' lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.
Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Parthiv Jhonsa from Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited.
Thank you, and over to you.
Parthiv Jhonsa
Thank you, Iqra. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.
We at Anand Rathi are pleased to host Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited Q3 and 9-month FY26 earnings conference call. We have with us today from the management, Mr.
Rajesh Gupta sir, Managing Director, Mr. Riyaz Shaikh, CFO, and Mr.
Chintan Mehta, CIO. Without further ado, I would now like to invite Mr.
Rajesh Gupta sir to initiate the proceedings for the call, which would then be followed by question-and-answer session. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Rajesh Gupta
Good evening, everyone, and a warm welcome to all the participants. Thank you, Parthiv and Anand Rathi, for hosting this call.
We truly appreciate the interest and time from all our investors, analysts, and stakeholders. Let me start with the headline numbers before we go to the operative narrative, where we have got the highest, ₹11,000 crore, we have crossed in consolidated revenue, which is a very, very significant milestone for us.
As you might have seen the presentation, the EBITDA and the PAT matched that. I would like to express that this current bottom line was our top line around 2 to 3 years back, and we hope to achieve the same in the future as well.
I will take a small deviation from my usual remarks today on the ferrous side and start with copper. Copper, as we know, is the new gold for the new-age economy.
Structurally, the world is entering a phase where copper demand will remain strong for decades, while supply will remain constrained. This is where we believe our entry timing is right.
The copper project in the DRC district, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in the Katanga area, will mark a very important milestone in our history. When we expanded our operations in Gadchiroli, the region was considered difficult and impossible, and we ourselves had failed in execution, where we have now learned a lot.
The market, as well as the local communities, have appreciated the efforts that we have put in in developing the economy, and therefore, our business. We generally believe that over time the same narrative will emerge for Congo, Katanga, as well as other parts of the world.
For this, I would also like to take a moment to acknowledge the leader of the Congo team, Mr. Surya Narayanan, who is the leader and the director of the Congo team.
Projects of this nature require not just capital, but deep operational leadership, which we already have with Mr. Surya, as well as other core colleagues from other parts of the operations.
Now, let me come back to the ferrous operations. Execution continues at a breathtaking pace.
Multiple projects are progressing simultaneously, and most importantly, on schedule. The second pellet plant is now expected to be commissioned in Q2 FY27, and the 1.2 million ton wire rod mill by Q4 FY27.
While operating our pellet plant, we're seeing the opportunity to unlock latent capacities, and optimizing similarly for pellet plant number two will increase the capacities of both these plants to 10 million tons from earlier 8 million tons. These projects will improve our value-added mix and enhance margin stability.
Logistics remains one of our most critical pillars of our cost leadership. Our first 85 km pipeline is running smoothly and has led us to plan our second slurry pipeline from Hedri to Chandrapur.
The key change is the introduction of a stockyard in Chandrapur to move beneficiated ore also through the pipeline route. This will give us advantage for direct access to railways near Chandrapur and also obviously of saving of ₹800 for the sale material and around further ₹250, that is around ₹1,050 for the material that will be used for the pellet plant in Chandrapur.
We are, by this, removing the inefficiency of the mine which doesn't have a railhead. Details of this plan are covered in the presentation.
Coming to operational performance, iron ore dispatches have grown meaningfully, supported by the slurry pipeline, which is working very well, very strong operational discipline, and strong execution. Pellet plants, we have achieved within 3, 4 months of commissioning, optimal utilization, and are now looking at debottlenecking it.
Our DRI plants, both of which are commissioned, and the power plants, are operating at optimized levels and contributing steadily in a very difficult environment of DRI. On the demand side, both iron ore and pellets have witnessed strong demand in the domestic as well as international markets, and product has been very, very well accepted.
We expect the buoyancy of the market to continue, supported by infrastructure, steel demand, and, of course, the economic growth in the country. Let me spend a few moments of time on the MoU with Tata Steel.
We have signed a non-binding MoU with Tata for multiple collaboration to strengthen the ecosystem in Gadchiroli area, in the eastern belt of India, and, of course, we have also signed a shareholder agreement for BRPL pellet plant, along with a conversion agreement, which gives us a steady cash flow in BRPL. To summarize, we remain very buoyant on our ferrous operations.
Iron ore volumes are expected in line with the EC to grow in Q4 as well as FY27, and value addition plans continue, and FY27 will mark our formal entry into steelmaking. Lastly, but not the least, copper will act as a strong growth engine over the medium term.
Now, I hand over the call to Riyaz ji and Naredi ji, who will take you through the detailed figures.
Riyaz Shaikh
Thank you, Rajesh ji. Good evening, everyone.
I'll start with a quote that we strongly relate to at Lloyds Metals. As Satya Nadella says, "Growth is not just about size.
It's about mindset, learning, and execution." This philosophy resonates very well with what we are seeing in our business today: scaling responsibly, improving structurally, and executing with discipline.
With that context, I will take you through the standalone financials and operating performance for Quarter 3 and the 9 months ended FY26, focusing on numbers, margins, and capex. This has been a very strong quarter and 9-month period for us on a standalone basis.
In fact, Quarter 3 and 9-month FY26 are the best we have seen so far in terms of revenue, profitability, and margins. Quarter 3 FY26 standalone, the total income came in at about ₹3,875 crore, up 129% year-on-year.
EBITDA was ₹1,317 crore, which is a 137% year-on-year increase. PAT stood at ₹889 crore, up 128% year-on-year.
For the 9-month FY26 standalone, total income was ₹8,859 crore, up 59% year-on-year. EBITDA came in at ₹2,994 crore, a 74% year-on-year growth.
PAT was ₹2,129 crore, up 71% year-on-year. As regards the margins, margins have remained very healthy and stable.
Quarter 3 EBITDA margin was about 34%. 9-month EBITDA margin stood at roughly 33.8%, which is almost 280 basis points higher year-on-year.
This improvement is not one-off. It's structural, and it's coming from higher share of value-added products, specially pellets, benefit of the slurry pipeline, which has started flowing into the P&L, better utilization across mining, pellet, and DRI ops.
On the operational side, iron ore production was 5.49 million tons in Quarter 3 and 12.87 million tons for 9-month FY26. Dispatches were largely in line, which is 4.1 million tons in Quarter 3 and 10.1 million tons for the 9 months.
EBITDA stood at ₹1,825 per ton in Quarter 3 and ₹1,951 per ton for 9-month FY26. Pellets have been a key positive this year.
Pellet production was 1.14 million tons in Quarter 3 and 1.95 million tons for 9-month FY26. What's encouraging is that this run rate was achieved within just 3 to 4 months of commissioning.
Realization in Quarter 3 was about ₹10,289 per ton, whereas EBITDA per ton was roughly ₹4,535, supported by captive iron ore, slurry-based evacuation, and strong domestic demand. DRI volumes were around 0.12 million tons in Quarter 3 and 0.29 million tons for the 9 months.
DRI expansion was commissioned during Quarter 3, and operations are now stabilizing. Value-added products are now forming a meaningful part of our revenue mix.
For 9-month FY26, value-added products accounted for roughly 35% of standalone revenues. This mix shift is central to improving margin stability, reducing volatility, and enhancing overall return metrics.
Now coming to the capex update on a standalone basis, let me quickly touch upon capex. Standalone capex during 9-month FY26 was about ₹4,236 crore.
This was largely towards pellet plant 2, DRI expansion, the 1.2 million ton steel plant at Chandrapur, the first module of the beneficiation plant. Importantly, capex execution is on track and within approved budgets.
Touching upon the balance sheet and cash flow, despite the higher level of capex, the balance sheet remains comfortable. Strong EBITDA generation has supported internal accrual-led funding and controlled leverage.
Working capital continues to be well-managed, helped by faster dispatch cycles and healthy demand conditions. Looking ahead, iron ore volume should remain strong in Quarter 4 FY26.
We aim to exit FY26 with 20-plus million tons volume on ore. Pellet operations will continue to run at optimal utilization.
DRI contribution will improve further as operations stabilize. Overall, we expect margins to remain robust, supported by our value-added mix and ongoing logistic efficiencies.
To sum up, standalone performance in Quarter 3 and 9-month FY26 has been very strong. Margins are holding up well on structural basis.
Capex execution remains disciplined. With that, I'll hand it to Naredi ji for Thriveni performance.
Rahul Naredi
Thank you, Rajesh ji and Riyaz ji. Good evening, everyone.
Thriveni growth has always been about disciplined execution, consistency, and doing the fundamentals right, day in and day out. Let me take you through the Thriveni's performance for Q3 and the 9 months ending FY26.
From a financial perspective, this has been a strong and improving period for Thriveni. In Q3 FY26, the total income stood at about ₹2,200 crore, with EBITDA of roughly ₹550 crore, translating into an EBITDA margin of close to 25%.
For the 9 months, revenue were around ₹5,480 crore, with EBITDA of approximately ₹1,080 crore, and margin of about 20%. The improvement in margin reflects better operating leverage, higher equipment utilization, and continued focus on cost discipline across various projects.
Operationally, our coal mining operations continue to perform exceptionally well. At PB West, we achieved the highest distinction of a 5-star rating from the Ministry of Coal, ranking number one among more than 380 opencast mines in the country.
December B. Prabhakaran: saw a record monthly coal production of 17.7 lakh tons, and the in-pit crushing and conveying system commissioned earlier has already handled close to 15 lakh tons, significantly improving the efficiency.
PB Northwest, another coal block, has also commenced production and dispatches, and we expect this project to scale meaningfully over the next few quarters. Odisha remains a key growth driver for us.
Several mines have seen capacity enhancements, and overall, Odisha volumes are expected to grow by nearly 40% year-on-year in FY27. This scale-up is being driven by faster statutory clearances, improved infrastructure, and focused execution at site.
In Gadchiroli, which many of you are familiar with, the environmental clearance has been increased from 10 million tons to 55 million tons, including BHQ. Alongside scale, we continue to push sustainability-led initiatives, such as electrification of mining equipment and LNG hybrid deployment, which are helping us optimize costs while reducing our carbon footprint.
We have commenced MDO and exploration activities at Geomysore India Private Limited from January '26. This is a gold mine.
This asset provides long-term visibility, with a targeted EBITDA of contribution of around ₹60 crore in FY27, and we see potential upside as exploration progresses. Internationally, we are rationalizing lower margin operations in Indonesia and redeploying our equipments to higher-return opportunities.
Overall, Thriveni's focus remains very clear: scale responsibly, execute efficiently, and protect margins through productivity and cost optimization. The pipeline for FY27 looks very strong, and we are confident of sustaining both growth and profitability.
With that, I'll hand it over to Mr. Parthiv, who can open the floor for question and answers.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.
Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.
Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.
The first question is from the line of Amit Dixit from GS Financial. Please go ahead.
Amit Dixit
Hi. Good evening, everyone, and thanks for the opportunity.
Congratulations for a very good set of numbers. A couple of questions from my side.
The first one is on the MoU that we have with Tata Steel. Just wanted to understand the various facets of this MoU.
While you have explained in your prepared remarks, Tata Steel also held a concall in which they explained few things, but I'm just wondering that in mining, when we are so strong in this region, why do we need someone else? It might be Tata Steel, of course, no doubt they're experts, but what expertise we are actually looking to get from Tata Steel?
Is there something that goes beyond mining, let us say, into steel, where we might get some kind of consultation from them? Is there any scope of having a long-term iron ore supply agreement to them?
Just wanted to explore these points.
Rajesh Gupta
Thank you, Amit. The MoU with Tata has two parts.
One is the BRPL SHA and the BRPL ownership and conversion contract, which is executed. The second future exploration of opportunities, there are two areas that we're looking at.
One is the eastern area of the country where, for example, Tata may have some assets where we can act as a contractor, as an MDO contractor, maybe, or where they may need a pipeline to certain area where we have some expertise, which Tata has not yet developed, or maybe we have some land in Paradip which we can try to utilize in a better way. A lot of opportunities are being looked at in the eastern belt.
In the Gadchiroli area, we're looking at whether we can do jointly or opportunities come up with government trending system where we can get ore at a relatively better pricing, better commercials. This would not be from the existing mine, it would be for future expansions.
We're always open to partnerships because that is the way to develop fast, and Tata is one of the finest companies in the country, not one of the, I would call them the finest company in the country. Definitely, it's a honor to be partnered with them.
Amit Dixit
Great. The second question is essentially on the copper.
It is indicated in the presentation that there are certain mines also associated with it. Congo is not exactly the best place to work, and then, mining, I know several companies who have failed because of various reasons.
What is it that we see in Congo, and are these mines yet operational, or at what stage of exploration they are? You have indicated some numbers, but these numbers seem to be more for the processing side.
Just wanted to understand the backward integration part of it, a little bit more. If you can also mention the grade of copper that you expect over there.
Rajesh Gupta
We're looking at Democratic Republic of Congo, Katanga area. This area by itself, DRC by itself, is the second-largest producer of copper in the world at the moment, after Chile, number one.
Number two, the copper majors, Glencore, etc., are all based in copper in this area. There are 60 to 80 companies, small and big, operating, and the infrastructure, the systems are there in place to take care of very many things.
The political stability in this country is much better, and particularly this part of the southern part of the area, and it's a very economically based country and area, not politically worrying. Not zero politically worrying, there would be some worries obviously, but it is well, well-sustained.
The mining leases that we have are 16 or 18 leases, I'm forgetting the number right now. 18.
18 leases over 100 square kilo
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
16.
Rajesh Gupta
16 leases over 8 100 square km. Exploration is going on.
We already found copper at good depths. 1.5% to 2% copper is also available, 0.8% is also available, oxides are available.
The 10,000 to 12,000 tons is a direct output of the plant that we're talking. For the cathode plant with the leaching and cathode plant, we could take the ore from our own mines, which we already started accumulating, as well as from bought-out mines.
At the end of the day, it would be a integrated operation of around 30,000 tons per annum, which may take 2, 3 years to achieve. We believe that in the next year financial year '27, 10,000 tons of operations would be achieved at a fairly integrated mix of ore.
Amit Dixit
Great, sir. Just if I can squeeze one more, just wanted to get the status of BHQ plant.
Rajesh Gupta
BHQ plant, land procurement is under control, and the engineering is complete, the ordering is complete. We ordered the equipment from the best possible companies in the world to take care of any exigencies because it's a newer technology in India, not taking any chances on the technology part of it.
We have worked with the Chinese and now with FLSmidth also, and we are hopeful of getting it commissioned by December '27 or so.
Amit Dixit
Okay. Great, sir.
Rajesh Gupta
Latest by that time. Yeah.
Amit Dixit
Sir. Great.
Thank you so much, and all the best.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all participants in the conference, please limit your questions to two per participant.
The next question is from the line of Jashandeep Singh Chadha from Nomura. Please go ahead.
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
Hello. Hi.
Thank you for the opportunity, and congratulations, sir, on a great set of numbers. Sir, my first set of questions are around iron ore.
Firstly, on your guidance, FY26 guidance is close to 20 to 22 million tons. If I assume that you will be doing 3 million ton of pellets, also that is close to 4.5, 5 million ton of iron ore, 10 million tons of iron ore you have still done, which means close to 6 to 8 million tons of volumes you are forecasting for fourth quarter of FY26.
Lloyds has not done for anytime such volumes in one quarter. Just wanted to understand what is the confidence behind giving such guidance, and what are the challenges that the company can face in meeting those guidance?
My first question is this, sir. The
Rajesh Gupta
the volume in this year in this month, that is January, is around 2.4 million tons, 2.5 million tons, which crosses the 26 million ton overall, and definitely we will achieve the 20, 21 million ton target for the year. We have to appreciate one thing that at the moment, we have to the problem is not in the marketing of it, the problem is not in the mining of it.
The area that we are right now focusing on solving the problems are on the logistic side. Right now, we are moving around on an annualized basis around 4.5 million tons of ore by the pipeline, and come by April, we'll be able to do 9 million tons, since the second plant will become come by June, the second slurry pipeline the pipeline will be ready to take the second pellet plant input, 9 million tons would go out of that.
Right now, we are producing around transporting by truck around 70%, 60% more than the overall requirement. It is a tough job.
We are very confident of achieving 21. That's why we give a confident guidance of 20 to 22 million tons for the year.
We believe that quarter guidances and directions are are lesser quarter guidances are lesser important for a company of our nature, and our overall direction of decadal growth, or at least 3-year growth, is what we are what we are what I'm focusing on. Operational efficiencies are looked at at every level, and you can see that in the increase in the in the revenue, in the margin also, 280 basis points is a factor of whatever Riyaz said, plus a cost control system also.
Everything has been factored in when we made the guidance. No,
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
understood, sir, and thank you so much for such an elaborate answer. My second question is also around iron ore only.
Sir, we have seen that the benchmark domestic iron ore prices have come down in this quarter. It's with that regard, I just wanted to understand how much the realization has been impacted for Lloyds, and how much margin compression, EBITDA compression we can see in the fourth quarter?
Sir, and then related to iron ore only, I just wanted to understand what is the capex for the slurry pipeline, and can you also, for our analysis, tell us how does it compare with the peers?
Rajesh Gupta
Compared to the?
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
Peers, sir. Your peers.
Rajesh Gupta
Peers or other companies. Okay.
The benchmark has come down, and so has the basis of benchmark come down, from 62% to 61%. If you currently look at benchmark price of $103, it amounts to around $108, which is around $3, $4 higher than the same amount last year, same period last year.
I think the benchmark has not really come down, it's gone up.
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
Sir, I was talking about domestic iron ore.
Rajesh Gupta
Domestic iron ore, I don't know by what stats you're saying it's come down. Some of our competition has increased the prices over the last 2 months, both the months.
The auctions that have come out have been very strong. Steel benchmark is very strong.
At the moment, I do not see any indication of the steel industry or iron ore industry being soft in India at all at the moment. Maybe 1 month back, 1.5 month back, it was different, but that's part of the cyclical nature of the business.
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
Sir, on slurry pipeline, the capex and—
Operator
Sorry to interrupt you, Mr. Singh.
Can you rejoin the queue for more questions? Ma'am,
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
it's part of my first question only. I've asked earlier.
Rajesh Gupta
Slurry pipeline. On the slurry pipeline, as you might be knowing, we had planned for another 5 million tons of a slurry pipeline connecting the mines to the Ghugus plant in Chandrapur.
Now, what we are now doing is we've increased the capacity of that, we will be now making it as a 16 million ton slurry pipeline so that we cover the entire 26 million tons of dispatches through slurry pipeline. One is existing, which is there as a 10 million ton, this is the second slurry pipeline, which will be a 16 million ton slurry pipeline, which will be taking us more to the market as well as to our Chandrapur plant.
We also in fact have a second phase on it, the slurry pipeline, which will be connecting to more of the market as well as the ports. The total cost envisaged is around ₹8,000 crore on this particular project, but we will be doing it on phase-wise.
The first phase of up to Chandrapur will be around ₹2,000 crore. ₹2,500 crore.
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
Thank you so much, sir. I'll join back the queue.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, you are requested to limit your questions to two per participants.
The next question is from the line of Pratik Singh from IIFL Capital. Please go ahead.
Pratik Singh
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity, and congrats on a good set of numbers.
My first question would be largely on BHQ project, given the fact that bulk of our volumes going ahead would be coming from BHQ. How confident are we in maintaining the fact that the cost of production of BHQ would be similar to our current cost of production, given that we'll have to mine more material, there will be beneficiation cost also?
I understand that we save a bit on royalties, but do you think there is any risk of operating cost overrun in BHQ going ahead?
Rajesh Gupta
BHQ, the royalty saving based on the existing proposals of the government, as well as existing policies, as well as future proposals of the government, the royalty savings would offset the cost of processing the BHQ to ore. Please also factor in that the grade of ore from 62%, 64% would become 66%, 67%, and that gets a very high premium, the cost of ore versus the selling price or the usability of ore becomes much better.
The BHQ beneficiation or beneficiation of ore in general has been accepted by the government as a very, very important aspect of the national policy of steel, and therefore, we expect a lot of support on the royalty front from that. Does that answer your question?
Pratik Singh
Yeah. Just going into a bit more detail here, sir.
Royalty, if our current realizations are, let's say, 6,000, and royalty all-in, let's say, 20%, 1,200-odd royalty, and even if royalty on BHQ is, let's say, zero, ₹1,200 per ton of saving plus, let's say, some premium because of higher—
Rajesh Gupta
Royalty not zero, royalty from 1,200 will come down to around ₹200. Processing of the ore would involve some power, which is the biggest cost.
We are working on greening our power also, as well as other operations, and that's what I said, we're using the best technology to ensure that the systems are very, very strong and uptime and efficiency of the plant is the best.
Pratik Singh
Okay. Understood.
Rajesh Gupta
The premium that we would get on this output of product if we are to sell all the ore would be around ₹1,400 a ton also, you have to also factor that in.
Pratik Singh
Understood, sir. Understood.
The second question is largely on the slurry pipeline, 85 km—
Operator
Sorry to interrupt you, Mr. Singh, as we have a long queue, can you please rejoin for a follow-up question?
Pratik Singh
Sure.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vikash Singh from ICICI Securities.
Please go ahead.
Vikash Singh
Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, my first question pertains to our copper mine, as you stated that it was an operational mine.
Just wanted to understand, had the existing promoters was facing any difficulty in terms of producing and ramping up of the mine, and that's why we got a chance to get some stake there? Secondary, on the management bandwidth, we are doing too many things simultaneously, just wanted to understand the management bandwidth in terms of managing and looking after the timely completion of all these projects, how should we look at it?
Rajesh Gupta
Number one, on the existing promoter, they are more involved in commercial activities and general traders in the country. They had got this mine as an opportunity.
Mine and the copper plant has been set up by them as well. The copper plant is set up, but not running.
They lost the bandwidth to run it, and that's where we come in. Mr.
Prabhakaran and the erstwhile Thriveni had been looking at DRC for a long period, and that's how the opportunity comes to us of investing in that. There have been no problems.
Again, I repeat, there are around 70, 80 plants, including Glencore and Ivanhoe and the best companies in the world running copper mines there and copper operations, so that's not a worry that we foresee in a very serious way. In terms of operational bandwidth, we have scaled up.
Let me give you a little bit of history. Scaled up from around ₹500 crore to ₹10,000 crore, or in this year maybe ₹13,000 crore, over 4 years.
We have proved to the market, we have proved to ourselves, we have proved to our team, and our team has proved to us, that we can take care of growth in a sustainable, sensible, economical, and business-like manner. We continue to do that, number one.
Number two, as far as Congo particularly is concerned, one of the promoter directors would be involved full-time there, apart from a very, very professional team who has been involved in mining operations, and we have hired experts on the copper manufacturing side also. The technicality of the leaching process and the cathode process is not a super technical or a super new invention, and that can be taken care of by the team that we have ensured are already on the job at the site as we speak.
I think that we are confident of sustaining this growth in a very sensible way.
Vikash Singh
Noted, sir. Sir, second question pertains to Thriveni.
While the top line grows—
Operator
Sorry to interrupt you, as we have a very long queue, can you please rejoin for a follow-up question?
Vikash Singh
I'll rejoin.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vedant Sarda from Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited.
Please go ahead.
Vedant Sarda
Thank you for the opportunity, and congratulations on a great set of numbers. Sir, my question is, we are hearing that government is taking various measures to ensure availability of iron ore, like they have to bring our iron products prices at par with international markets, we can compete and export our iron goods.
Can you comment on the pricing outlook going forward, and how to look at this?
Rajesh Gupta
See, if you look at iron ore in India, the growth is around 5%, 6%, the steel growth is around 8%, 9% even now. If you look at 5 years CAGR, it is 5%, 6% for iron ore and around 9%, 10% for iron ore.
There's been a continuous shrinkage of the extra supply, and therefore exports, either in the form of low-grade iron ore or in the form of pellets, have reduced. The overall supply-demand gap is very, very favorable in supply of iron ore, number one.
Number two, as we go forward, over the next 5 years, around one-third of the capacity, which is premium-free, will go into auction over the next 5 years, and that will add to not the lesser supply, but definitely to a higher cost mechanism for the industry. We are pretty confident of our commercial part of selling iron ore, and over a period, our value-added business will be quite a lot, and we can therefore be well equalized in both iron ore as well as value-added products like pellets or steel as well in the future.
Vedant Sarda
Thank you for explanation, sir. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants in the conference, please limit your question to one per participant.
If you have a follow-up question, you may rejoin the queue. The next question is from the line of Harsh Shah from Seven Rivers Holding.
Please go ahead.
Harsh Shah
Hello? Hi.
Good afternoon, sir, and our heartiest appreciation for excellent execution over last 3 years. Sir, first question is on the MoU with Tata Steel, given that it could end up being quite an extensive agreement eventually.
Will it in any way affect or change our plans for the integrated steel plant, which would be our ₹16,000 crore capex plan?
Rajesh Gupta
Our future steel plant in Gadchiroli is being looked at internally, nothing to do with the Tata MoU. Any Tata MoU, any Tata setup together would fall under different plant than that.
Harsh Shah
Okay. Sir, one bookkeeping question, what would be the warrants outstanding now, as of today?
Rajesh Gupta
What is the?
Harsh Shah
Outstanding warrants as of today.
Rajesh Gupta
We should be getting around ₹900 crore from it. I'll give you the number, but the value around ₹900 crore is pending, which should be coming up in the month of March, that is something between 15th and 18th March at the last date, we should be getting.
Harsh Shah
Okay. Sir, on the copper part, the 10,000 metric ton capacity which we have, what would be the average realization and EBITDA margin on those?
Rajesh Gupta
This is copper cathode, the current copper price is around $11,000, $11,500, $12,000, and normally there's a premium to Congo because of the transport cost, so that's the approximate range, and the margins that we anticipate are approximately 30%, 32%. That gives that ₹500, ₹700 crore that we're talking about next year.
Harsh Shah
Okay. Since we have 50% stake in this JV—
Operator
Sorry to interrupt you, Mr. Shah.
Harsh Shah
This is relating to this. Are we the MDO partner here, or mining will be done by someone else?
Operator
Hello?
Rajesh Gupta
Mining would be by Thriveni, by a subsidiary of Thriveni in that area, yes.
Harsh Shah
Okay. Sure.
Thank you. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Hardik Ghori from Abans Investment Managers.
Please go ahead.
Hardik Gauri
Hello, sir. Thank you for the opportunity, and congratulations on a great set of numbers.
Firstly, on the growth outlook for our MDO business in FY27, and secondly, what was the IPS benefit for Q3?
Rajesh Gupta
IPS benefits, we have been drawing the benefits from day one of the pellet plant production, and this year has been around ₹130 crore. The Thriveni outlook is around 40% increase in iron ore non-Lloyds Metals, around 60%, 70% increase in the Lloyds Metals because of the BHQ increase, 15% in NTPC, that is both the Pakri Barwadih mines, around ₹60 crore EBITDA, they have come up directly with the EBITDA figure expected for the gold mine.
Not gold mine, 0.3 million ton. 0.3 million tons output, and that would be the profitability.
There would be some reduction in volumes in Indonesia and in the baryte operations. Overall, our top line growth of around 20 15% to 20%, and a bottom line growth of around 35%, right?
Hardik Gauri
Got it, sir. Our expected debt trajectory on a consol level?
Operator
Sorry to interrupt. Please rejoin the queue for more questions.
Hardik Gauri
All right. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vineet Thakur from +91AMC.
Please go ahead.
Vinit Thakur
Hi, good evening, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.
Sir, I would like to know what would be the expected debt consol figure for the year, and what would be our peak debt?
Rajesh Gupta
As of 31st December, if I would say, the consol net debt was around ₹7,100 crore. This year, it should be not more than that.
FY28 is when I would say the peak debt, when we reach the peak debt. We should be on a consol basis, around ₹10,500, ₹600 crore.
We are always targeting at 1:1 debt-to-EBITDA, and that is what we are working on. That's it.
Vinit Thakur
Thank you, sir.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shubham Harne from Purnartha Investment Advisers.
Please go ahead.
Shubham Harne
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.
The question was, I think EBITDA per ton for pellets has declined on a QoQ basis. Last quarter, it was ₹5,000 per ton, this quarter a little lesser, around ₹4,000 or so.
Any reason for that?
Rajesh Gupta
DRI is one of the most challenging businesses, like some other questioner asked earlier about the downcycle, it's most affecting the secondary steel market and that.
Shubham Harne
Prices
Rajesh Gupta
on pellets, if you were asking, it's gone up.
Shubham Harne
No, no, no, prices
Riyaz Shaikh
The EBITDA for pellets.
Rajesh Gupta
If you look at the pellet prices, after
Riyaz Shaikh
Q2 was 11,000.
Shubham Harne
Yeah.
Rajesh Gupta
The pellet pricing has gone up, falling pellet pricing is showing that there's a pressure on that, right?
Riyaz Shaikh
EBITDA on DRI pricing. Basically, it was a cycle, the cycle has crossed the
Rajesh Gupta
hump. The pellet prices in Quarter 2 was around 11,000, what we had got an average realization, and it has come down to 10,000 in Quarter 3, that is why the margins have been reduced.
The pricing is lower because we have added more export to the mix.
Shubham Harne
Okay.
Rajesh Gupta
As the volumes have picked up, we had to add some volume of export. The EBITDA is still very strong and much stronger than the rest of the industry put together.
Shubham Harne
Okay. Got it, sir.
Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Tanmay Choudhary from Ventura Securities.
Please go ahead.
Tanmay Choudhary
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.
Sir, given Lloyds' ongoing capex plan, pipeline, can you just outline the expected funding mix and cash outflows over next 2 years? Also, the scheduled debt repayments and RPS repayments, and providing TMPL not declared any dividend.
Rajesh Gupta
The debt schedule and all, we can give it to you separately, I wouldn't be able to do that. Yes, the capex outlay is around ₹14,000 crore including from this year and the next year.
We intend to borrow ₹6,000 crore from debt, and then the balance should be from the internal accruals. That is where we are working.
Tanmay Choudhary
Okay. Sir, just last one question.
In PPT, we have mentioned the realization of pellets increases because of the geographic location. Can you just throw some light on it?
Rajesh Gupta
Sorry, can you repeat your question? Sir,
Tanmay Choudhary
I'm saying in the PPT, we have mentioned the realization of pellets increases because of their geographic location, can you just throw some light on it?
Rajesh Gupta
Geography, I cannot relate directly to the PPT question, but geographically, our location is such that we have been very strong in marketing to the south, as well as the Chandrapur area itself. That's why our realization in pellet is around ₹4,500, ₹5,000.
Riyaz Shaikh
₹10,000.
Rajesh Gupta
The EBITDA is around ₹4,500, ₹5,000 crore ₹ per ton, because of the market friendly nature, as well as our costing and logistics cost. I think does that answer your question, or is there something specific?
Tanmay Choudhary
No, sir, I'm asking about the realization.
Rajesh Gupta
The realization is a factor of freight versus market, and that's where we are. Being centrally
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
located, the location helps. That's how we are better than others, that's the only reason.
Tanmay Choudhary
Sir. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Karthik Srivatsa from Unity Mutual Fund.
Please go ahead.
Karthik Srinivas
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, I just have one question just on the policy level.
Now that many mines are coming up for auctions till 2030, and there is significant demand-supply gap between iron ore and steel, is there any possibility the government has to intervene and put a cap on the auction premiums? Is there a risk that we run because the government has to intervene and put this thing of auction premiums or change some of the policies at a policy front?
Rajesh Gupta
The government, we believe, is still believing in free market, and the premiums are quoted by the biggest consumers of iron ore, which are some of the biggest corporates in the country. We have not seen any policy change or policy announcement which would indicate that there's being a cap on the premiums being quoted.
Karthik Srinivas
Sir. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question we have is a follow-up question from Jashandeep Singh Chadha from Nomura.
Please go ahead.
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity again.
Sir, my question was regarding Thriveni. Just wanted to understand on the remarkable performance, the EBITDA has doubled QoQ.
I wanted to understand that the proportion of the EBITDA, is it coming from increased volumes from Lloyds, or there are other major heads also because of which the EBITDA has improved? Wanted to understand how should we model the growth in EBITDA going forward till FY28, if you can help us?
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
In Q3, the EBITDA is increased mainly because up to Q2, due to rains and other local factors, the production was lower, the EBITDA was lower. In Q3, when the rains were not there, we came to our original strike rates, and the EBITDA was normal as what we had planned.
For the next year, what we are targeting, in Q4, again the Lloyds will be doing the full production. This year also, in Q4, we are starting one new mining lease.
Next year, we are getting 3, 4 new contracts and extended capacity, the volumes will be higher, and accordingly, we don't see any challenge in EBITDA.
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
Understood, sir. Just concluding that, this appears to be the normal run rate for EBITDA, and as contracts increase and volume increase, there will be growth from here on.
Is my understanding right, sir?
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
Yeah.
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
Okay. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rushabh Dhruv from Uttam Investments.
Please go ahead.
Rushabh Dhruv
Hi. Am I audible?
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
Yes.
Rushabh Dhruv
My question is regarding iron ore sales volume. For this quarter, we just stayed around 4.1 million tons, right?
Then why is this PPT also showing 5.39 million tons? What's the difference here?
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
That also includes the internal transfers, that's how. That is the dispatches from the mines.
Rushabh Dhruv
It's captive, right?
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
The sales figure is 4.1 million, which is there.
Rushabh Dhruv
Okay. Okay.
Okay.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pratik Singh from IIFL Capital.
Please go ahead.
Pratik Singh
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity again.
Just want to get a sense as to when we had showcased the transaction with Thriveni back in December '24, we had given a sense of an EBITDA of around ₹3,500 crore in FY27 by Thriveni. Is that something which we stand by, or are on track right now as well, or is that number a bit changed, up or down?
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
FY27, the EBITDA of Thriveni should be close to ₹3,000 crore.
Pratik Singh
Understood. Thanks.
That's all from my side.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Divya Agrawal from Pincon Family Office.
Please go ahead.
Divya Agrawal
Hi, sir. Thanks for taking my question.
Sir, my question is on Thriveni MDO business. In Q2 call, you guided to achieve EBITDA of around ₹2,000 to ₹2,200 crore for FY26.
However, if you see 9 months, the total EBITDA stands at around ₹1,100 crore. Do you still stick to your earlier guidance, or would you like to revise it downwards?
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
We stick to the guidance. Yeah.
Divya Agrawal
You stick to the guidance, sir?
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
Yes, sir. We stick to the guidance.
Divya Agrawal
Okay. On the revenue guidance as well, wanted to know for FY26 and '27, what would be the revenue guidance for Thriveni?
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
FY20? '26
Divya Agrawal
and '27, for the entire year FY26 and entire year FY27. FY26,
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
and FY27.
Divya Agrawal
Right, sir.
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
FY26, we are looking at a revenue guidance of around ₹7,500-plus crore, and FY27, revenue guidance is ₹10,000-plus. ₹10,000-plus crore.
Rajesh Gupta
Yeah.
Divya Agrawal
Lastly, sir, just what would be the actual PAT for—
Operator
Mr. Agrawal, sorry to interrupt you, Mr.
Agrawal, please rejoin the queue for more questions.
Divya Agrawal
Sure. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. We'll take the next question from the line of Parthiv Jhonsa from Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited.
Please go ahead.
Parthiv Jhonsa
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity, and thank you for allowing us to host the call.
My quick question is again on Thriveni MDO. A couple of quarters back, you had given us the guidance for almost up to '28 and '29.
I believe sir has given the EBITDA guidance for about 30% in '27. Thereafter, is it possible to give a guidance for '28 and '29?
Because I think it was about 32-odd percent, give or take, considering you are looking to do 40% higher volumes on iron ore non-Lloyds and for the other minerals as well. Is it possible to give some guidance?
Rajesh Gupta
'28, '29, see, it's a contracting company, we are looking at contracts on a continuous basis. It would be very difficult to give a further guidance than what we have.
Even the guidance that Mr. Narendran just gave would have some surprises upwards because some contract could come up, hopefully, future.
Parthiv Jhonsa
Absolutely. Yeah.
Okay? Sir, is it possible to repeat that number, that 40% increase on iron ore and everything?
I think I missed a couple of them actually, for next year.
Rajesh Gupta
The external iron ore figure is around 40% increase in '27, FY27. The external coal, that is NTPC contract, is around 15% growth, correct me if I'm wrong, Mr.
Reddy. There would be a reduction of around 65% in the baryte operations.
There would be reduction of around 25% in the Indonesia operations. Add to that gold and copper of the Katanga area.
With that, we expect that figure that Mr. Narendran just gave us.
Parthiv Jhonsa
Perfect. Sounds great, sir.
Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraint, that was the last question.
I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Parthiv Jhonsa for closing comments.
Over to you.
Parthiv Jhonsa
Thank you all for joining us for the conference call today. We at Anand Rathi would like to thank the management for giving us this opportunity.
This concludes this conference call. Thank you, everyone, and have a good day.
Rajesh Gupta
Thank you.
Thachat Viswanath Narendran
Thank you.
Operator
On behalf of Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.
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