Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd.

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd.

165.94
INR
-1.58
(-0.94%)
12.80EPS
11.64P/E
261.22BMarket Cap
Jan 25Next Earn

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJanuary 19, 2026

Operator

Okay. On behalf of, we would like to welcome all the participants to this quarter three results conference call of MRPL.

From the management, we have Devendra Kumar, who is the Director Finance, and we have Subhash Pai, who is Head Finance, and we also have Arvind Gupta, who looks after Investor Relations. I would request the management to give a brief overview of the results, post which we can open the floor for Q&A.

Over to you, sir.

Devendra Kumar

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the third quarter call to discuss the financial performance of the company.

As you are aware, of the numbers published last week, MRPL posted a significant jump in year-on-year as well as quarter-on-quarter performance this quarter. The EBITDA earned by the company was Rs.

2,824 crore versus Rs. 1,064 crore for the last quarter Q3, last year quarter Q3.

Healthy market prices, optimal energy consumption, and throughput led to published bottom-line numbers. MRPL posted MBN of 67.

MBN is a measure for energy efficiency for its capacity and its complexity. This was the best number posted in any quarter.

The fuel and losses stood at 10.06% for the quarter, which is also the best in any of the quarters. Further, current debt stands at Rs.

9,290 crore and debt-equity stands at 0.63. If the market remains good, and which we sincerely hope will, we should be able to reduce the same further during the next quarter.

Further, for the sake of repetition, based on several queries we get often on, MRPL is now well past its summer water blues, water issues due to desalination plant. MRPL is also a unique refinery in India with three separate crude trains.

That gives us operational and maintenance flexibility, with slightly higher fuel and losses. That said, higher fuel and losses will also be taken care within the next fiscal year with grid power project, which will bring it under 10, closer to 9.5, but it will be somewhere between 9.5 and 10.

We are also the first Indian refinery that is establishing a bio-ATF plant at a cost of Rs. 364 crore.

The plant will help us to get in compliance with CORSIA norms. CORSIA norms is for carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation fuel, and we'll be able to supply blended ATF across the globe starting from 2027.

2027 is the 1% blended ATF. We have consistently won the prestigious Innovation Award at the Energy Technology Meet, last was at Hyderabad, four years in a row, including the current year.

Efforts of our innovation team will start to show from next year when the IBB pilot plant gets running. IBB is for isobutyl benzene.

It is a base for pharmaceuticals. On retail outlets front, we are delighted to announce that we have achieved 200 mark retail outlet marks and should be able to complete around the 250 outlets within this fiscal year itself.

For the upcoming quarter, the refinery is focused on maintaining its operational performance, and we expect the market to continue to support us, and we should be able to post a reasonably healthy Q4 25-26 also. Now we are open to questions and clarifications from our investors and analysts.

Please.

Operator

Dhaval, you can go ahead and introduce yourself and ask your question.

Hi, thank you for giving the opportunity. I understand that MRPL exports diesel to Europe, and there is an 18 sanctions package that comes into effect on January 21.

Can you help me understand what is the situation in terms of sourcing of crude that MRPL has now, as well as going forward, and whether this will impact MRPL's earnings by any chance, or will it not be able to export to Europe, or how is that?

Devendra Kumar

We are in strict compliance with all sanctions in place, and currently there is no Russian crude which is being imported, and we will continue to comply with any of these international sanctions regime or government guidelines. In near future, we do not expect anything to stop our export of finished products.

That is really helpful. Second question I had was in terms of, I do understand you have access to VLCC, but in terms of freight rates, is the company doing anything to minimize this?

Third question I have is on fuel and loss. You said it is going to be lower in terms of power grid, but is there anything else that the company is doing for energy integration as well?

One, of course, on the freight rates, how is the company managing that? Second, on energy integration, any other programs being run by the firm?

Devendra Kumar

First question first, freight rates. We did see a spike in freight rates earlier in Q3, but the freight rates have gradually come down to the normal levels.

They are still higher than the averages, but it has come down significantly from its peak. Freight rates are not a deal breaker in any of our imports.

The point number two regarding energy integration, see the location plays a very crucial part. Based on the availability of the kind of energy, the energy mix, we will continue to explore further.

Currently some of our energy is being based on the grid availability, is being considered. It is already online, and next year this particular project should get completed.

That will bring down the EFN well below 10. Right now I do not want to put a number to it, but we are targeting somewhere between 9.5 and 10.

We'll continue to keep improving because grid availability is something which is slightly or majorly beyond our control. Although we continue to have interaction with the policymakers and other players in the region.

That is helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Mayank, you can introduce yourself and go ahead with your question.

Thanks Anup. Hi, sir, Mayank here from Morgan Stanley.

A couple of questions from my end. In terms of you talked about the crude sourcing changes.

Can you just tell us the impact on margins you have had because these crude changes, because you are not disclosing refining margins anymore? If you can just give us an idea of what's the impact on the GRMs that you are kind of seeing?

Second, in terms of costs that you are talking about on grid power, etc., can you just tell us, is there a way you can also lower your costs on the gas sourcing side, and how much has been the impact of that, if there is any? The third question related to was, there has been a bit of an increase in terms of sulfur prices, etc.

What has been the impact on margins for you, and where do you see those going? Thank you.

Devendra Kumar

Okay. First is regarding the crude sourcing and GRM.

If you recollect during half-yearly accounts, that is Q2 accounts, we had taken a policy step that GRM computations and depictions and publications are not standardized by the different companies, or in any of the forums itself. We had discontinued publishing that, and it is also in line with some of the other major PSUs and other companies also.

However, we had given an indicative figure that it is double of what was the quarter one margin. It is still in a similar range at a cumulative level.

Coming to the crude sourcing part, we have consistently maintained a stance that Russian crude were opportunity crudes. They always played a marginal...

that is, they were in our overall strategy, they were always playing a marginal role in improving the bottom line, but it was not kept as a crucial factor. We did have a margin on Russian barrels initially, and it had come down significantly towards the latter part of the calendar year.

Loss of Russian barrels is not going to make a significant kind of an impact. Whereas on the finished product side, you have seen the cracks going significantly up.

That more than offsets the loss on account of Russian barrels, and that is how you see a very healthy Q3 performance of the company. Coming to question two regarding gas, can you just restate that?

I did not get it correctly.

Sir, I think the reason to ask that question on gas was that you... LNG price have been high for most of this year, and fuel oil was becoming the alternative source for most refineries to run the refinery, as such it was much more economical.

From going forward basis, are you seeing any areas where you can actually lower your costs by sourcing cheaper LNG, is where the question was coming from?

Devendra Kumar

See, our LNG consumption is relatively low, I not say quite low; it's relatively low, and we already have a term contract with BPCL, and it is at a significantly competitive price. It is not way above, and in fact the newer LNG may in fact be higher than that.

I will not disclose the final prices. It is very competitively available to us, and concurrently we are also exploring other sources, including CGDs, including the parent company, because parent company also has a certain arrangement with CGDs, especially in the southern areas where there is some untapped gases.

All those discussions are on. It is yet to be firmed up.

The commerciality has to be worked out at both the parent company level, our level as well as CGDs, but it is still in its infancy. Gas costing is not going to be a crucial issue.

It is a very marginal issue. Now coming to the third point, sulfur, again sulfur we still treat it as a secondary risk.

It is again treated as a marginal item. If the prices are on the higher side, it is not part of our strategy, but it is always with us.

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Yeah. Thanks, Mayank.

Kaushal, you can introduce yourself and go ahead with your question.

Am I audible?

Devendra Kumar

Yes, Kaushal.

Yes, go ahead. Thank you for the opportunity, sir.

I am relatively new to the company. I just wanted to know what is the revenue mix, as in what is diesel, what is ATF?

If you just throw some light on that, and what are the cracks? What were the cracks in quarter three, and what are the cracks currently?

Devendra Kumar

I will just going to read out the numbers. I will come to the cracks first.

Subhaschandra Pai

The Q2 cracks were comparatively healthy when we compared it to the Q1. HSD was around 15, ATF, kerosene was around 13, and MS also marginally improved from whatever we were earning in Q1.

Our further, coming back to question number one, volume-wise, our product slate gives us HSD plus ATF at around 50%, and MS at around 15%, and the remaining 35% comes from other products. This is what a broad-level breakup of our product slate is.

This also includes 10% of fuel oil that straightaway goes into our fuel part of it.

Sir, I mentioned the cracks question. Q2 cracks were around 15 to 13 dollars, and Q3 was how much, and how much is it currently?

Subhaschandra Pai

Currently it jumped from Q2 was 15, and Q3 was 21 for HSD, similar for ATF, and MS from 8 to 13.

currently how much is it? How much is the ongoing average?

Subhaschandra Pai

Currently it is not as high as 21 and 13 that I told you. It has come down and it has moderated to around 14-15.

This is what the current published cracks are.

From 21 from now to 14-15.

Devendra Kumar

As of now, as of date.

It's similar to what Q2 levels were, basically.

Subhaschandra Pai

Cracks right now are in the trajectory that was in Q2.

Understood. Sir.

Thank you very much for that.

Operator

Thanks, Kaushal. Akash, you can unmute yourself and go ahead with your question.

Yeah. Hello?

Hi. I just wanted to understand what would be the impact in terms of freight rates in the third quarter, maybe in dollars per barrel or rupees per route, and second relating question, you said the freight rates have normalized right now.

The disruption still remain, right? Is it normalized for you or the industry, or how to look at it?

Devendra Kumar

Thanks, Akash, for this question. I will be repeating myself.

The freight rates were a concern both from investor, analyst perspective as well as our perspective. There was a supply issue, but in the current context, other than the Middle East tensions, there is no supply crunch for these vessels.

Rates are gradually coming down. It is no longer what it was at the peak in Q2.

It has come down significantly, but it is not close to the Q1 levels. There is a big mix of rates.

I can only say in general terms that it is slightly higher than the Q1 rate, but way below the Q2 and early Q3 rates.

Sure. That’s it.

That’s it. Thank you.

Devendra Kumar

Thank you, Akash.

Operator

Thank you, Akash. Suneet, you can go ahead and ask your question.

Thanks. Hi sir, good morning.

Firstly, sir, I would like to, if we take a five-year perspective, can you throw light on where do you see our company in terms of refining, in terms of marketing, because you are also adding some outlets. If I take a three- to five-year view, can you just share what are your big growth plans going ahead, sir?

Devendra Kumar

From a strategy point of view, we have realized that retail is going to be a big player, game changer for the refinery. Earlier it was just like a base refinery, but over a period, with capacities coming up in other refineries, we expect that this is the major area where we need to work much smarter, and that is how we are focusing majorly on retail outlets, because the margins available on retail is superior to what you get only at the refinery transfer.

In fact export sales can be a little volatile. Occasionally it favors us, and occasionally there are pitfalls in that export sales.

This retail will give us a sense of stability going forward. In three years’ time we are planning about 500 outlets, and we are keeping this target as reasonable and modest.

We don’t want to go overboard, and in five years’ time about 1,000, and that is when the expansion is supposed to reach a very crucial tipping point, where the growth rate five years down the line should be much higher in a typical retail marketing outlet. Establishing the first few hundred outlets is very difficult because you start from scratch, but then you are way ahead on the learning curve, and it becomes speedier and speedier.

You will see a significant growth in terms of our retail portfolio, and we are targeting that particular segment.

How many fuel outlets do we have today?

Devendra Kumar

Today we have 200. We are targeting 250 by this year end, 500 by three years’ time, and that is keeping it as a conservative figure.

Okay. Thank you, sir, so much, and I wish you all the best and good luck.

Devendra Kumar

Thank you, Suneet.

Operator

Mr. you can unmute yourself and go ahead with your question.

Nilesh, you are not audible if you ask.

Am I audible now?

Devendra Kumar

Thanks. So

Thanks for the opportunity. As you mentioned that you are planning to expand from 200 currently to 500 and then subsequently to 1,000 retail outlets.

What kind of investment you see over the next five years in marketing? This is just on the retail side you are mentioning, but what about the depots and the pipeline infrastructure that you are planning to develop over let’s say five years?

Devendra Kumar

We are already aligned with our retail outlets. The question is absolutely right.

Any kind of retail expansion requires the secondary capacities to come up, and we are targeting the states which are adjoining Karnataka in the near future, and we are also targeting establishment of depots in all these locations, both on the east coast as well as the west coast. Mumbai is a target, Maharashtra, Visakhapatnam, and we are looking for capacities.

Kerala is targeted. We already have capacities.

We are also looking at expansion of those capacities based on our retail offtake, and we will continue to also look at the pipeline. The latest being we are targeting the Bangalore airport pipeline.

The tenders were already on. The final outcome is awaited.

That is the Devanahalli pipeline, and as and when future opportunities come, we will continue to look at those.

What kind of investment in marketing do you envisage over, let’s say, a couple of years or three years down the line?

Devendra Kumar

If this kind of infrastructure will depend on the licensing, the tank, because the retail outlets do take certain time. I’ll not give a time frame, but typically the depots could be in the range of 50 to 100 crores annually, depending on the capacities.

The pipeline would be in the range of 200-odd crores. Major is the major plant is in Mumbai, Visakhapatnam.

This will help us to take care of the entire Southern India, and depots, smaller depots at other areas. You can say it will be in the range of approximately 500 plus minus in the near future.

Okay. My second question: what percentage of our product sales is through our own retail outlet currently?

Devendra Kumar

Right now the percentage, it is not going to be very significant because we are in that expansion phase. We have still not captured the kind of market.

It is a very small fraction of the total volumes, total revenues. It is approximately 2%, 1.5%.

Let me just...

Once you achieve that 1,000 retail outlets in your own retail outlet, what kind of revenue you expect from your own marketing business, marketing sales?

Devendra Kumar

As I had mentioned earlier, we are targeting retail as a major revenue earner in future. Reason is that 1,000 is only an intermediate target.

In future we want this refinery to be a full-fledged refinery and marketing business, not just limited to only refining. Right now we are keeping that 1,000 as an intermediate target, about five years’ target, because we do have certain challenges when you are entering the market for the first time in many of the states.

That is a critical inflection point we expect. After that we should be targeting higher numbers based on the experience.

It is targeting retail outlets as well as the depots, that is the support. Also opening offices, Chennai office is a major office.

We also intend to have more marketing offices in the upper Karnataka region, Andhra region, Telangana, and Mumbai region. These are our medium-term targets.

Sir. Just last question from my side before I join the question queue.

What about this? You are talking about the retail outlets, and I'm talking, you mean the petrol and diesel, but what about the other products marketing?

What are your plans? Because there will be some pressure for the other products as well, with the other, all the oil marketing companies are expanding their crude throughput, refining expansion.

What are your plans for the other products?

Devendra Kumar

Please. The next, apart from MS and diesel, is ATF.

ATF, where we are very well placed, and technically, as I mentioned, we would be one of the first to be compliant with the core standards, and based on our tie-up with Shell, that is an affiliate company, we expect this particular business to keep growing, and we intend to, we expect this market share to be completely with us. We do not see any dent in our ATF holdings going forward.

Okay. Thanks a lot, sir, and all the best.

Devendra Kumar

Thank you, Nilesh.

Operator

Thank you, Nilesh. Kaushal, you can go ahead with your question.

Thank you for the opportunity once again, sir. Am I audible?

Devendra Kumar

Yes, Kaushal.

Sir, I just wanted to understand, we have a 15 MMTPA plant. What would be the replacement cost for a plant like this if we were supposed to set up this plant from scratch, if someone was to set up from scratch?

What is the capex required for maybe 1 MMTPA? Can you just give a line on that?

Devendra Kumar

See, typically there are certain thumb rules, and it varies from location to location, and also on the complexity, what you are planning ultimately. If you take the latest Barmer as, say, the latest addition, it is almost like 8,000 crore per MMT.

It could be higher if you are planning a more complex sourcing and more complex processing, but 8,000 crore per million ton. That is like a benchmark.

Depending on the complexity that we have currently, for that also it's 8,000 crore per MMT?

Devendra Kumar

No, it will, of course, increase, because you are not just refining crude for your primary product, but then there are other intermediate plants which have to be put up for the petcoke. That will take it to higher than 10,000 also.

So 7 to 10,000 is a reasonable point of view if I was to replace?

Devendra Kumar

Yes, sir, that is correct.

Sir, why were the cracks? Why did the cracks suddenly shoot up in Quarter 3?

What was the reason? Was there some global reason or anything that you look back you could pin to?

Devendra Kumar

You follow the market more than... The reasons.

We have a lot of uncertainties prevailing in the market sourcing, commercial, and these sanctions. These are playing a very complex...

I can only say that this is a complex place, is yet to stabilize, and this complexity is not going away immediately. As it was mentioned in the first question that end of January, what are going to be the implications of the sanctions, overall compliance, that will also come into play.

We are also waiting and watching and aligning ourselves to evolving market.

Sir, if we want to have a management meet, how do we get in touch with you?

Devendra Kumar

You are welcome to Mangalore anytime, and all of you, you are welcome to Mangalore. You can also see our refinery.

I'm sure it is going to impress you.

How can we get in touch? Who is the concerned person who we can get in touch?

Devendra Kumar

Arvind Gupta, sir,

Arvind Gupta

you can get in touch with me any time, whenever you want to visit, we can plan that.

Can I have the email address, please?

Arvind Gupta

This is Arvind underscore Gupta,

A-V-I-N

Arvind Gupta

underscore Gupta at MRPL dot co dot in.

Thank you, sir. Thank you very much for your patience.

Devendra Kumar

Thank you, Kaushal.

Operator

Thanks, Kaushal. Dhaval, you can unmute yourself and go ahead with your question.

Yeah. Basically, now that the Russian crude is no longer a part of the slate, can you provide a broader percentages?

I understand Middle East is a majority, but still if you can give us where exactly the crude is being sourced in terms of the percentage, broader percentage, or if you can provide some guidance on that.

Devendra Kumar

See, about 40% of our crude, we have collectively, together with Government of India, we are committed to Middle East crudes, led by Saudi Aramco. That gives us a very stable kind of sourcing, whatever may be the geopolitical conditions, and we will continue with that.

Apart from that, we have the tender process, and tender process is aligned more to the... because we do have a complex refinery, and our product mix will decide the kind of crudes which are required.

Sometimes we require very sweet and light crude, sometimes something which is heavier, and it is a combination of... it could be from Middle East also, but it could be from domestic suppliers, domestic producers from ONGC, both East and West Coast, as well as Mangalore crude.

We also have this arrangement that is one-to-one sourcing, and those arrangements or MOUs are in place. In some of the cases, with TOTSA or ADNOC, those can always be relied upon in near future.

Yes,

okay, I understand. Is there a minimum percentage of high sulfur crude that you maintain in your slate?

Devendra Kumar

I didn't get you. Minimum number of?

Minimum percentage of high sulfur crude that could be maintained, that would be maintained in your refinery slate? I understand there will be different products and different requirements, but is there a benchmark that we can keep, high sulfur crude that you would have in your refinery?

See,

Devendra Kumar

high sulfur crude, we don't target high sulfur crude. We target based on other components, and if it turns out to be high sulfur, it is not a no-go for us.

It's not a deal breaker, because we have sulfur treatment facility in our refinery, for us it's not an issue.

Let's say, if I have to gauge how much percentage of heavier crudes do you particularly use, or is there a minimum benchmark that you have for heavier crudes?

Subhaschandra Pai

Arvind Gupta, as you already know that our refinery is a complex refinery, we can even process heavy crudes such as Merey or Maya, apart from whatever we are processing currently, but we can go up to 1650 API also. This is the capability the refinery has.

It really depends on the economics at that particular day when we are purchasing the crude, that what crude we are going towards. Our refinery is obviously biased towards heavier crude because that is economically more suiting us because of the complex nature of the refinery.

I cannot tell a thumb rule percentage that this much only, or around a set percentage, we are processing only heavier crude and not the lighter crude. It really depends on the opportunity we are getting and the complexity and the economics that the product will bring us to the table.

I will put the same thing in simpler terms. See, in more complex refinery, heavier crudes can be processed more easily.

No, I understand that.

Devendra Kumar

If we don't get the heavier crudes at a cheaper rate, we would not go for heavier crudes. That is the simple commercial reason for it.

Currently, for the nine months, I can mention that it is around 70 to 72 percent, the heavier crude.

Oh, okay. Understood.

That is helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thanks, Dhaval, sir, we have two questions in the chat box. I will read that and please try to answer that one.

The first question is asking that the throughput that we have declared in our press release is 4.7 million metric ton, whereas TPAC is 4.56 million ton. Any reason for the discrepancy in the throughput?

Devendra Kumar

See, what we have published is what I have immediately. Regarding the TPAC's numbers, I can only get back to you and not be able to commit immediately because I don't have that with me immediately.

You said it is 4.56. I hope there is confusion between production numbers and throughput numbers.

We will get back to you.

Operator

And

Devendra Kumar

one sec.

Subhaschandra Pai

The thing is, as I said, the 4.56 that you mentioned was the gross crude percentage, and the 4.7 million metric ton, and the 4.7 that we reported in our financials, that was the net crude percentage. Our revenue and the rest of the things and the bottom line is driven by the net crude.

That is why we focus on net crude and not the gross crude.

Operator

The second question is, is MRL looking to buy very heavy oil for processing?

Devendra Kumar

Yes, we are actively looking at it. We have not decided, but we are looking at it.

It depends on the commercial terms, because freights are expected to be on the higher side when the rate is also low API crude. We will look at the total terms and condition and the commerciality.

Operator

Last question is if you can highlight what capex will you in the quarter?

Devendra Kumar

We have committed earlier also in Q2 that overall capex on an annual basis is in the range of about 1,500 crores. That is the kind of capex we target, which is a mix of revamping as well as small-time, that is some capacities which we keep adding.

It's not capacity addition total, but intermediate products like IBB was one such product, upgrade infrastructure. There are some other minor projects also, some pipeline that is you change, rerouting, yes.

Operator

Sure, sir. Sir, one last question from my side.

We have also announced this isobutylene benzene pilot. We said that we will in the next year.

Before we take our question, I think Sarthak also has a question. Sarthak, if you can unmute yourself and go ahead.

Hi, morning. Am I audible?

Devendra Kumar

Yes, Sarthak, please.

Yeah. Hi, sir.

Thank you for answering all the questions. I just had one follow-up question on the capex part.

You mentioned that 1,500 crores that we are planning to do in FY26. If you could just help me as to how much we have incurred till December and also your guidance on FY27 basis, because I believe there should be some tapering off in capex if at all we include the IBB part.

Also how do we see the return metrics and the project of isobutylene benzene that is coming up and how it will add to the profitability part? Lastly, how should we see as the dividend payout policy for this year and next year as well, considering we are going to do good numbers in Q4 as well, similar like Q2 numbers.

A bit of light on this will help. Thank you.

Devendra Kumar

I'll answer the last question first on the dividend part. Dividend per se is not out of discussion, and it has to be seen in the context of the three requirements.

One is our own capex requirement. Second is the kind of debt which we carry, and third is, of course, dividend.

Compared to last year's annual profitability, this three quarters have been relatively good. We did push some of our ongoing capex to this year.

Those should get completed. If Q4 remains profitable, then we might, that is not me personally, the board might actually look at dividend also.

That I will leave to the decision of the board, but that is definitely on the annual, that looking at the overall quarter to quarter, there could be a dividend possibility. Now coming to the first question, first question was the capex was 887 crores, that is for three quarters, and some of these projects should be coming to a major technical closure by end of March.

This could go up to about 1,500. All

right, sir. Any clarity on next year's capex numbers, FY27?

Devendra Kumar

It will be in the similar range, because revamping is something which keeps happening constantly. You need to maintain the plant in best of working conditions.

As you can see, the plant is, but for the shutdown, first quarter shutdown, we would have continued to have throughput of almost 18 MMT. It is almost 120 percent above the nameplate capacity, and to keep the plant running at top performance, you need to continuously keep looking at your equipment, and whatever requires revamping has to be attended to.

We do have some ongoing projects, plus some are opportunity projects. I said, the rerouting of pipelines.

The target remains in that ballpark point of 1,500 crores.

Sure, sir. Thank you.

Just lastly, this number that we are looking at, considering that we have a commendable achievement to push the net below 10,000 crores as of now. How should we look at the debt numbers moving this year end as well as 27?

Devendra Kumar

You have seen our balance sheet. We have NCDs on our books.

Those NCDs are not due till 2028. Whatever has been paid in December, after that the next due date is 2028.

It's almost 4,500 crores is locked till 2028. The next big item is the ECBs.

ECB is right now, there is some volatility, but otherwise the ECB gives us a certain cushion. We are actively evaluating that.

It's a trade-off between debt reduction, because if I have to pay all that ECB right now, you do incur, there is a foreign exchange loss. We do expect forex market to move if the U.S.

trade deal comes through, and we take a call accordingly. Right now it is 9.3, and it could come down, not very significantly, but it might come down if the market remains favorable.

This was very helpful. Thank you so much and congratulations to the team.

Devendra Kumar

Thank you.

Operator

Sumit, you can unmute yourself by Mr. Singh.

Sumit, you can unmute yourself. I think there is no response from his end.

If there is one more question in the...

Can you hear me now?

Yes, we are clear. Go ahead.

Sir, coming back to your point on fuel marketing, since you are looking at, 5x kind of growth over the next five years. Sir, if I recall this correctly, when Reliance and BP had done a deal, the valuation which they took, was basically at about 10 crores per fuel outlet.

Can you basically concur with the same that, the cost to set up one fuel outlet should be something like at least about 5 to 6 crores? The pure reason I ask this is, sir, today, in the listed domain, we've got our parent as well as the oil marketing companies which are trading at subpar valuation.

Can you just help understand, on one side, we see the reality is that, there is substantial amount of growth in the market, that, not only you but all the companies are adding, retail outlets, and you're kind of clearly seeing, from Mr. Hardeep Singh Puri also talking about making India a refining hub of about 303.

To the other side, you have the stock markets which don't value these companies. Can you help understand, the divergence between the two and, on the valuation of fuel marketing would surely help a lot?

Devendra Kumar

That's a very interesting question, and I would love to answer that. Thanks for the question.

First things first, the retail outlets, the cost is significantly different depending on the location. If it is an urban location, you are right, it could be much higher.

All the newer outlets which are coming up, we have a mix of outlets coming up. We are also bound by certain guidelines of the ministry, government guidelines.

It cannot be only urban, or only in the cities, or only on the highways. There is a mix and match.

The outlets, and we also have that is plain vanilla kind of outlets and slightly smarter outlets. The cost would vary from as low as about 1.5 crores for a smaller outlet to something what you have mentioned, and that will be for a bigger city kind of environment.

For us also it is a very similar mix and match. Right now going forward, we have advertised, depending on the responses, on an average it is coming out to be in the range of 2 crores.

That is in the current. Whether it will continue to be in that same range going forward, I cannot comment on that.

It will depend on the market response.

Understood. Sir, just one question to the earlier participant you said that, the cost to set up 1 MMT of refining is about 7,000 crores, if I heard correctly.

Today, for example, you have about 15 MMT, okay, and your throughput, as you mentioned, is about 18. You clearly see your market cap is only 25,000 crores.

The point I am trying to make is that, what steps are you guys taking, to increase market capitalization? Because these companies need to start trading at a much higher P/E multiple than what they trade today.

Can you share some thoughts on that as well?

Devendra Kumar

Sumit, you have asked a question which we also ask ourselves. Yes, depending on the feedback, this is a common troubling point for all the OMCs.

It's not just us. It is all the OMCs, PSU OMCs, that the valuation is much below, you rightly pointed out that.

One very crucial factor is that almost the entirety of the pricing and the taxation is still considered controlled by the government, despite all the deregulation happening in this space. I am referring to your Excellency, we keep getting this feedback.

One is we had the SAD, although it is no longer there. You never know in a crisis you might again come up with some other kind of tax.

That is the kind of feedback which we have got. In case of MRPL, one peculiarity is that our float is very limited.

Almost 88% is with the ONGC MRPL, and only balance 12% approximately is in the open market. Even in that 12%, about 1% would be locked up for those non-participants.

The float is also an issue, and we are examining it together with our parent company to address that float issue.

Thank you so much, and I will probably connect with you offline. Thanks a lot, sir.

Devendra Kumar

Thank you, Sumit.

Operator

Thank you, Sumit. Sir, we have a couple of more questions from the chat box.

What is the initiative to reduce the crude sourcing cost?

Subhaschandra Pai

What is the initiative to reduce crude sourcing cost?

Devendra Kumar

Sorry, I didn't get the question correctly. Is it referring to the freight or overall?

Operator

Sorry, it could be overall, sir. Whatever we are doing in terms of reducing the total cost of purchase as far as the crude basket is concerned, be it freight or maybe, say, sourcing change in terms of long-term, short-term, or taking benefit of arbitrage crude or safe freight as well.

Devendra Kumar

Okay. Thanks for this clarification.

See, any other refinery, we are also mark-to-market. We are not in a league to be actually dictating any of these things, OPEC or any other large company.

However, our margins are derived not from the absolute rate. It is derived from the crack, and that is where we make our major earnings from.

This is where we keep targeting. That is a mix of export, a mix of domestic term sales, and now we are also targeting the retail outlets.

That is where the margins for the company are. It is not just the sourcing.

It is the margins which are important to us.

Operator

Another question is on our retail throughput outlets. What volumes are we doing per outlet per month?

Subhaschandra Pai

I will come back on the retail outlet volume part. You may proceed with the next question.

I will clarify in a minute.

Devendra Kumar

The ECB number, what is that number?

Subhaschandra Pai

Yeah,

Devendra Kumar

3000?

Subhaschandra Pai

The NCD that was asked, number is 3250 crores that we are having right now. This is the balance amount.

3250. ECB amount is 500 million.

That comes to around 4500 crores.

Operator

Next year, we have also guided around 5500-odd crores of capex. Is there a breakdown of the same thing in terms of what is the maintenance capex and what will be going into IBB or anything like that?

Devendra Kumar

I will request my team. They will give you the breakdown shortly.

We can go take the next question.

Operator

How much percentage of refined products are we exporting currently?

Devendra Kumar

We export almost 40% of our products in exports right now. That is the percentage.

It may change quarter on quarter, but I am giving you the figure on a running basis last year. And

Subhaschandra Pai

additionally, the retail outlet sale is around 120 KL per month per outlet.

Operator

Thank you, sir. There is one question, one more time.

That specifically, the person is asking: What is our expectation on GRM, considering that capacity is becoming constrained globally?

Devendra Kumar

GRM, if you follow the market, it is still quite healthy. Although we did say that it is going closer to Q2.

In fact, it’s not as high as Q3, but it is still quite healthy, and it suits us fine, because very high GRMs, we know market will not be able to sustain the kind of GRMs which we saw in Q3. We did have spikes beyond 21 also.

Operator

Sir, that’s all from the counsel also, sir. If you have the Capex breakdown, we can take that, and otherwise we just leave that.

Devendra Kumar

Capex breakdown we have. Just give us half a minute.

Yes. So

Subhaschandra Pai

in 1500 crore, around 400 to 450 crore will be towards the growth part of it, retail outlets and other projects, grid power import and all those things. The rest you can take towards, majorly towards maintenance capex,

Devendra Kumar

revamping. That is what we call.

Operator

Sure, sir. One just last question.

What is the IRR we are expecting from IBB, if you could share some financials, the capital project that we are doing for the capacity, required capacity and all that stuff?

Devendra Kumar

Regarding IBB, we are still, it’s a pilot project, and we are still quite a few years from its commercialization. We need to go across many decision gates.

First is the technical inspection that it has to meet the stringent quality norms, and we are quite hopeful of that. After that, to get the licenses for the first, we still see about three, four years down the line, and only after that we will be in a position to take a realistic view on the IRR.

It also depends on the market conditions at that point in time. Right now, taking a call on IRR is a little too early to comment on that.

Operator

Sir. That was the last question, sir.

On behalf of P.A. Capital, we would like to thank all the participants for their valuable time.

We would also like to thank the management on sharing their details. Thank you very much, sir.

Have a nice day.

Devendra Kumar

I would like to thank each one of you who has shown interest in the company and taking time out. I would like to reemphasize each one of you is invited to visit our plant, and we are available to meet once again in person also.

Thanks for your time, and if there are any questions which remain, ambiguous or unanswered, please feel free to contact my investor cell, Arvind Gupta is the person, and will be happy to respond to you once again. Thank you.

Thanks, sir.

Operator

Thank you.