Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the Rolex Rings Limited Q4 FY '26 earnings conference call. Before we begin, a brief disclaimer.
This conference call may contain forward-looking statements about the company, which are based on the beliefs, opinions, and expectation of the company has on date of this call. These statements are not the guarantee of future performance of the company, and it may involve risk and uncertainties that are difficult to predict.
As a reminder, all participant lines will remain in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal the operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone telephone.
Please note, that this conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to Mr.
Hiren Doshi, Chief Financial Officer of Rolex Rings Limited, for opening remarks. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Hiren Doshi
Thank you. Good morning and warm welcome to everyone present on the call.
Along with me, I have Mr. Manesh Madeka, Chairman and Managing Director of Rolex Rings Limited; and SGA, our Investor Relations advisors.
I hope you have all received our investor deck by now. For those who have not, you can view them on the stock exchange and the company website.
Fiscal year '26 has been a year that has tested our resilience, challenged us in numerous ways, and ultimately reinforced our conviction in the long-term opportunity that lies ahead for Rolex Rings Limited. We navigated one of the most complex external environments in the recent memory, held our business together with discipline, and came out the other side of with our fundamentals intact, our relationships with strengthened, and our future-looking engine exciting.
Before I speak about fiscal '26, I want to take a moment to reflect on the bigger picture that the we, Rolex Rings, were admitted to Corporate Debt Restructuring, that is CDR, in 2013, a period that tested every part of this organization, but we stayed the course, focused on the building a better business, and by 2022, we had fully exited CDR by clearing all dues to our lenders. That was a defining moment for this company.
In March 2026, precisely on 31st of March 2026, Rolex Rings has honored its right of recompense obligation in full, making making total payment of Rs 101 crores to our consortium lenders. Every commitment made to every lender has now been met.
The slate is completely clean. This is a statement of character.
This company made a promise, and it kept it. With the ROR now fully settled, we enter the next phase of our journey with no legacy obligations, no covenants, no restrictions.
We are entirely free to focus on what matters most, that is the building a great business and rewarding the shareholders who believed in us. In April 2026, our board approved a buyback of 1 crore shares at Rs 180 per share, aggregating to Rs 180 crores.
The promoter promoters group has chosen not to participate, ensuring that full benefit of this buyback flows directly to all public shareholders. Coming to operating fiscal FY '26, FY '26 was not without its challenges.
The sharp escalation of US import tariffs, which peaked at over 50% on our auto components, created significant headwinds in our export business, particularly in the commercial vehicle and heavy commercial vehicle segment that makes up the core of our US exposure. At the peak of the tariff uncertainty, a major customer temporarily shut down the relevant plant entirely when duties, import tariffs, moved from 3% to 53 percentage.
Our supply to that program went to almost zero. On an annualized basis, our US exports were approximately 30% lower than what we had in fiscal '25.
Yet, I am pleased to report that despite this disruption, we held our ground. We maintained our momentum.
Full-year revenue from operations came in at Rs 1,144 crores, broadly in line with last year revenues. We more than compensated for the US shortfall through strong growth in Europe and a robust domestic performance.
That ability to pivot, diversify, and recover in real time is what makes this business resilient. Revenue from Europe grew by almost 25% during the year compared to previous fiscal.
Out of that, 60% of our new business nominations came from European customers only. This is a strong and direct endorsement of our product quality, delivery track record, and engineering capabilities.
The relationships we have built over decades with global bearing and automotive Tier 1 companies are paying off in a very tangible way. India continued to perform well.
Domestic revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, with both bearing rings and auto components contributing meaningfully. Our domestic business has grown steadily over the last few years, and we are now seeing a broader set of Indian OEMs and industrial customers recognizing the quality and competitiveness of our products.
Though we faced challenges in the US, I want to be clear, we have not lost a single US customer. These are longstanding relationships with leading global customer base, and the programs are intact.
The disruption was tariff-driven and temporary. With duties now normalizing, we expect US orders US order flows to resume meaningfully from Q1 of current fiscal, that is FY '27.
Coming to the operating numbers, operating margins, our gross margin expanded meaningfully from 49.4% to 51.5% in fiscal '26, reflecting the positive shift in product mix towards higher-value machined auto components and a better raw material management. The quality of our revenue is improving, and that is a trend I expect to continue in coming periods.
Even as a US import tariffs created revenue headwinds, we held EBITDA margins above 20%, a testament to the underlying quality of our business, the strength of our customer relationships, and our ability to adapt quickly to changing market conditions. Auto components now contributing almost 50% plus revenues, and going ahead, we continue to maintain it at 50%.
The shift in business mix will be a driver of margin expansion going forward. I want to draw your attention to two specific items that together explain the substantial increase in my other expenses breakup in Q4 of FY '26, which are not indicative of any structural cost increase in the business.
Both these expenditures are a kind of one-time expenditure. The company has spent almost Rs 22 crore by way of payment of customs duties at US.
Out of that, almost 50% of that are yet to be receivable from the customers. On a prudence way, on a conservative way, we have recognized entire expenditure in this quarter, but the revenue is yet to be recorded in the top line, which would be there in the first and second quarter.
Apart from that, we incurred approximately Rs 6 crores, which is 60 million rupees, in legal and professional expenses directly related to the closure of our right of recompense settlement with consortium lenders. This is again a one-time charge that will not recur.
Both these things have made some abnormality on on the face of my operating numbers as far as other expenses are concerned. Our business generated Rs 190 crores in operating cash flow and spent hardly 36 crores on capex, leaving a substantial free cash for the company to deploy.
Looking ahead to fiscal '27, one of the most exciting developments of fiscal '26 was the adding new plants of our existing customers based at various locations. With few of the European customers, we have not presence in their US and Mexico-based plant, which we got the program, which we got the orders in the previous fiscal.
This programs are on track to ramp up meaningfully from Q1 of fiscal '27 onwards. As we step into fiscal '27, the business environment feels more favorable than a year ago.
First, the US is coming back. Tariffs have normalized, and customers who were in a wait-and-watch mode through fiscal '26 are now re-engaging.
We expect US orders to recover from Q1 of current fiscal '27. The 30% revenue decline we experienced in the US through FY '26 is entirely recoverable, and the pace of recovery will depend on how quickly our customer rebuilt their inventory pipelines and production schedules.
Second, Europe continues to fire. The growth momentum what we built in fiscal 26 '26 is continuing into fiscal '27.
More than 60% of our new program what we awarded from the customers are from European customers only. We have genuine structural tailwinds in Europe, a combination of China Plus One sourcing strategies, our qualification track record, and the long-term relationships we have cultivated with global Tier 1 companies.
Third, our domestic business has strong legs. India's automotive and industrial markets continue to grow.
We are also beginning to see early contributions from EV and industrial programs, segments that we believe will become increasingly meaningful over the next two to three years. Rolex Rings has come a long way from CDR to debt-free, from financial stress to surplus cash, from a single geography geography dependence to a truly diversified global customer base, from a pure forging company to vertically integrated precision machined components manufacturer.
Every step of this journey has been earned in last couple of decades. Fiscal '26 was a year that reminded us that no business is immune to external disruption, but it also reminded us that a business built on the strong fundamentals, deep customer relationships, operational discipline, and a capable team can weather, can face any storm.
As I look ahead to fiscal '27 and beyond, I see Rolex Rings as a company that is well capitalized, well positioned, and well prepared for the next phase of growth. Our ambition remains unchanged: to be the most trusted precision forging partner for the world's leading bearing and automotive OEMs.
We are well on our way. With this, I would like to thank all the participants who have joined, and now I request we can have we can now open the floor for Q&A session.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session.
Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.
Participants are requested to use their handset while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one. Ladies and gentlemen, a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one.
We take the first question from the line of Mihir Vora from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.
Mihir Vora
Hi. Thank you for taking my question.
Sir, my question basically is on the current situation where we are seeing these geopolitical issues. Are we seeing any sort of order delays from the customers, freight cost increases, and what kind of issues are we facing currently, or is sort of the situation still in control?
Hiren Doshi
Mihir. As you said rightly, the freights are a bit increasing, but the positive side is that we didn't have any indication of deferring or delaying the orders as of now.
For last couple of months, that is from March '26 onwards, our customers are came back on the track, and they are rather giving us forecasting or dispatch schedules as per their original program. We do not expect much of the disturbances from now, subject to this geopolitical reasons if further it will not obstruct.
Mihir Vora
Just so in terms of container availability, is it an issue or is it not an issue as of now? How are we seeing the
Hiren Doshi
availability? Partially it is, but somehow we are trying to manage, we are trying to get the containers maybe by giving some premium on that just to meet the customer production schedule and honoring their dispatch schedules, we are trying to managing.
There is a delay of maybe two to three weeks on availability of container and maybe a bit of extended transit days also. We try to manage our inventory at a warehouse and the consignment stock.
That's true that we are getting some difficulty in containers. We expect that to be resolved maybe in coming days.
Mihir Vora
Okay. Just a follow-up on this, sir.
Like you said, there are cost increases in terms of freight and commodities. What is a normal pass-through period for us in terms of overseas customers?
Is it a quarter lag or a two-quarter lag?
Hiren Doshi
With majority of our overseas customer, we have a quarterly pass-on for the raw material cost. Maybe with a couple of customers, it's on a half-yearly based kind of thing.
Mihir Vora
Okay. Sir, my second question is just something bookkeeping.
Can you give me the segment-wise number which you regularly give on the call, that is domestic bearing, export bearing, etc.?
Hiren Doshi
Yeah. For the fiscal '26, I'm telling you, domestic bearing rings is Rs 386 crores.
I'm rounding off to crores. Domestic auto components, it is Rs 170 crores.
Export bearing rings, it is Rs 154 crores. Export auto components, it is Rs 350 crores.
All put together, it's almost Rs 1,060 crores. It's only components.
Scrap revenue, Rs 71 crores. Export incentives is 1 3, Rs 13 crores.
Gross revenue,
Mihir Vora
Rs
Hiren Doshi
1,143 crores.
Mihir Vora
Okay. Got it.
I'll fall back in the queue. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Anubhav Mukherjee from Prescient Capital.
Please go ahead.
Anubhav Mukherjee
Sir, thanks for the opportunity. Sir, what would be the US tariff that we are currently paying for bearing rings and auto components?
Hiren Doshi
See, as of now, our product falls under 232 Section, and it comes under duty tariff of 25% at US.
Anubhav Mukherjee
Both the products, like both bearing rings and auto components?
Hiren Doshi
Certain kind of industrial bearings depends on their tariff, HSN classification, which are there under 18%, but majority of them are in 25%, and auto components, it is 100% under 25
Anubhav Mukherjee
percentage. Got that.
Sir, would it be possible to share the split of exports by geographies, like US, Europe?
Hiren Doshi
You want precisely the numbers or the percentage of revenue?
Anubhav Mukherjee
Either would be fine.
Hiren Doshi
Okay. Let me tell you, of my total revenue, US is somewhere about touching 23 percentage, whereas Europe, again, it is almost 22%, Mexico, Canada, and some others, all put together, couple of percentage, and remaining 54% is there in domestic.
Anubhav Mukherjee
Sir, thanks for sharing that. Sir, I had a basic question.
In your investor presentation, it was mentioned that the domestic bearing ring market is somewhere around Rs 2,200 crores, as far as I remember. Would it be possible to share what kind of market share do we have in that?
Hiren Doshi
See, what we have shared or rather what we have stated in the presentation, that is overall bearing rings business, which is consisting a quite wider range. In our addressable segment, say from a 20 inner diameter to 900 outer diameter product range, and again, particularly from the hot forging route, what we envisaging or rather we expect that overall market is somewhere about Rs 1,600 to Rs 1,800 crore domestic market, wherein we do have share of almost 30% of that business.
Anubhav Mukherjee
Got that. Sir, this is entirely catered by domestic manufacturers, or is there any import component in that?
Hiren Doshi
Partially it is there. Still there are certain import constituents are there, certain kind of non-availability of higher range of the products.
Those are still under import. Let me tell you, those components have significantly reduced in compared to what we had before two years back.
There is an potential to producing, or rather import substitute or Indian manufacturers are getting better chance to produce those components also.
Anubhav Mukherjee
Got that. Sir, final question from my side is what portion of our revenue is actually fully machined and which are components?
Hiren Doshi
Almost 85% of my revenue, it is machined components revenue, and for 15% of my component revenue is from only through forged products or rather through only forging process.
Anubhav Mukherjee
Got that. Sir, what will be our current utilization across both rings and auto components?
Hiren Doshi
My utilization is almost same what we had, as you have seen that my top line is almost at same this thing. We are in the range of 62% to 63 percentage of utilization of my available or achievable capacity.
Anubhav Mukherjee
Got that. Thanks.
I'll get back in the queue.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one.
We take the next question from the line of Saurabh Jain from Sunidhi Securities. Please go ahead.
Saurabh Jain
Hello. Good morning, sir.
I have a couple of questions. One is on gross margin.
This quarter, we saw substantial expansion in the gross margin. If you can throw some light on what was the reason?
Was it entirely because of the product mix or anything else? Also, if you can guide us on what kind of growth are we looking at for FY '27 and FY '28?
That's all.
Hiren Doshi
Okay. Taking to your first question.
Yes, as you rightly said, the major portion or rather major factor for incremental GP, gross margin, is because of the product mix only. That is well.
Apart from that, there are some revenue, as I told initially also, that the customs duties what we have already received in the second quarter, third quarter from the customers, that has been accounted as an part of total revenue. Cutting out that one, my major factor of this incremental GP margin is due to product mix, and even due to change of the steel from, say, overseas to domestic and certain product processes.
That is the main reason. Coming to the next part of your question, that is growth for FY '27, FY '28, would like to inform that for fiscal '27, what we expect as on date is maybe a mid-teen growth, 15% to 17% growth, something like that.
Again, same kind of growth would be there, or maybe a bit on higher, a high-teen growth in the fiscal '28. That is on the basis of the orders, programs, what we have already won and the ramp-up what it would be there.
I have not considered any kind of additional revenue what we have lost during this last one and a half year because of this geopolitical reasons, tariff war, etc. That would be an additional to my overall revenue, whatever the addition.
As I told you initially, that 30% of my US business has lost in this particular fiscal of overall revenue. We expect at least 50% of that would be added again back to my normal practice minimum in the first half only, and remaining, again, it would be increasing in the second half.
Again, conservatively, I would like to stick on that we are expecting somewhere about 15%, 17% growth in fiscal '27, and obviously high-teen or even beyond that in for fiscal '28.
Saurabh Jain
Okay. Sir, my next question is on capex over the next two to three years because, of course, we are running at lower utilizations.
In case if we want to diversify a bit because we have a cash position of Rs 367 crores. Another question is on now we are out of financial encumbrance, what kind of dividend policy are we looking at with not any significant capex and substantial cash on the books?
Yeah. See,
Hiren Doshi
as you said that we had a huge amount of cash surplus, but at the same time, we have already announced this buyback, which is of Rs 180 crores. That would be in the some kind of initiation to honoring the stakeholders and wherein particularly promoters not going to participate, so that is one.
Apart from that, what you have asked is for the dividend. Definitely, we are in a thought process to even offer for the dividend, but we would like to preserve some cash with the company.
As you know that ours is a capital-intensive industry. No doubt we do have spare capacity available, but there are certain kind of range of the products where the equipments are almost 80%, 85% capacity utilization.
In that segment, we need to capitalize or we need to incur capex year-on-year basis. There would be there on minimum Rs 30 to Rs 40 crore bare minimum capex plus maintenance capex, etc., that would require for a year-on-year basis.
As I told you, the situation, the geopolitical disturbances, and there are uncertainties still prevailing into the overall global economy. We would like to be with some kind of conservative as far as our surpluses are concerned.
That would like to be there in the company. Again, it doesn't mean that we are not going to distribute profit to the stakeholders.
That is again in the next agenda of our line item. First, we would like to honor this buyback, and thereafter, we may think further on that.
Saurabh Jain
Sir, Rs 50 to 50-odd crores of annual capex, is that right, for this year and next fiscal?
Hiren Doshi
Broadly, yes. Yes.
Saurabh Jain
Okay. That's all from my side, sir.
Thank you. Wish you all the best.
Hiren Doshi
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Nishita Sanklesha from Sapphire Capital.
Please go ahead.
Nishita Sanklesha
Hello. Most of my questions have been answered.
I just had a question on order book, if you could quantify the order book we currently have and the order book pipeline in FY '27.
Hiren Doshi
See, in my case, customers are broadly awarded a program for five to seven years, and then once the SOP starts, it will drill down on a forecast of three to six months kind of thing for the overseas customer, and for the domestic, it would be maybe a couple of months or something like that. If I'll tell you, as of now, I do have a monthly order book for next three to four three to six months, even still the first half of this fiscal, current fiscal, on an average, Rs 115 to Rs 125 crore dispatches plan for this first half on a monthly basis.
Nishita Sanklesha
Okay. Okay.
Any order book pipeline that you see? See,
Hiren Doshi
as I told you earlier, that the certain order programs what we won in fiscal '26, those have just started with an volume of maybe 10%, 15%, 20% kind of thing. Now those orders further will be ramp up to 50%, 60% of their overall peak level, and that would be ramped up in this current fiscal during these four quarters, something in there in first, second, third, fourth, and onwards.
Apart from that, we are also in dialogues with a couple of new customers for the new program. In our business, in our industry, the new customer evaluation and final program, meaning it's a validation activity of more than 15 to 18 months, and if it is a critical components for the auto application, definitely this time may extend more than 18 months.
With the new customers, with the new plants of our existing customer with whom we are in dialogues as of now, that would be recognized maybe down the line one and a half year or somewhere in fiscal '28.
Nishita Sanklesha
Okay. Okay.
Understood. Just wanted to understand, how has the current geopolitical situation affected our inventory days, if they have affected?
Hiren Doshi
Inventory days bit stretched, not significantly, but we tried to manage. In between fiscal '26, we have also reduced dispatches as our customers at US are facing some kind of slowdown, and there were a partially shut down, something kind of thing.
We have stopped, and a good amount of our consignment inventory have already been consumed. Will not have significant impact as far as the inventory days are concerned.
Definitely, we do have imports also, wherein the transit period has a bit stretched. I think in next three to four months, that thing also will be settled.
There would not be any significant impact on inventory days.
Nishita Sanklesha
Like, what is the range we expect our inventory days to be around?
Hiren Doshi
Sorry?
Nishita Sanklesha
What is the range that we expect our inventory days to be around, in FY '27?
Hiren Doshi
Cutoff date on an annual, if you check my annual numbers, audited numbers, wherein sales which is in transit is considered as my inventory because of my Incoterms with the customer. If I'll move out that portion, I would be having somewhere about 70 to 85 days of inventory.
Considering that sales in transit, it would be touching 150 or 160 days.
Nishita Sanklesha
Okay. Understood.
That is it from my side. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Participants, a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one.
We take the next question from the line of Jason Soans from IDBI Capital. Please go ahead.
Jason Soans
Sir, thanks. Thank you so much for taking my question.
Sir, my first question just pertains, I know you gave the breakup for '26 revenue. Just wanted the breakup for the '25 revenue, sir, from those segments: export bearing rings, export automotive, in those segments.
Hiren Doshi
Kindly note it down.
Jason Soans
For
Hiren Doshi
fiscal '25, the domestic bearing rings was Rs 329 crores, domestic auto components Rs 177 crores, export bearing rings Rs 155 crores, and export auto components, it is Rs 399 crores. Scrap, it was Rs 78 crores.
Export incentives were Rs 16 crores, 1 6, 16.
Jason Soans
Sure, sir. Thanks so much for that.
Now I just wanted to know in each spoke in detail, sir, about the outlook and all. Just, sir, wanted to know how is the domestic demand outlook looking?
Things have been a little weak for us this year, but there was some slowdown in the bearing segment and all that. Just with regards to the big three in terms of the bearing manufacturers, how is the demand looking on the ground, localization and all?
They were speaking about capex on the ground, etc., in terms of India. Just wanted to know how is the domestic traction looking, sir, in terms of demand for the bearing rings?
Hiren Doshi
I'm a bit more bullish on domestic bearing ring business also because if you see, in fiscal '25, what we had is somewhere about Rs 329 crore revenue, whereas in FY '26, it has gone to Rs 386. More than 15%, 17% growth, 18% growth in this domestic bearing ring business only.
We expect to remain it continue. Again, as I was mentioning, that certain or good amount of import substitute have already been started producing in domestic market, and those will be in continue.
We expect our customers are also growing as far as their capacity, as far as their production. The numbers are quite encouraging, and we are getting good response or good reward from them also in terms of order winning.
Let me tell you, one of the domestic customer with whom maybe before one and a half year back, I was almost at zero, and today, I'm of my monthly revenue, maybe 3.5% to 4% of my revenue, that goes to only that one bearing manufacturer. Again, my existing other customers like big bearing manufacturers, I got an incremental component increase as well as the current volume of the existing products from both the way, from almost my four customer out of six customers.
Only we are facing some kind of stagnancy as far as the industrial bearings or a bigger size of bearings are concerned, where entire industry is also facing such issue.
Jason Soans
Sure, sir. Sir, on this you did mention that the tariffs, of course, the tariff situation last year has been pretty volatile.
It was first half, I believe it was 53%, then it came down to 28%. Now, sir, on the average portfolio, you said tariff was 25%.
Now considering that, we see this good demand coming in from the US going into FY '27?
Hiren Doshi
Yeah. As of now, my customers are, very frankly, for last four months, five months, there was not a change in any kind of duty structure, except that the Supreme Court decision what it came out.
Now the further how it would be, we don't know. Unfortunately, that Supreme Court decision do not cover this 232 Section.
In our product, it is 25% as of now, which my customers have also accepted, and the markets has of their OEM also accepted that one. These 25% on my component may not be a substantial on the overall assembly what my customer is selling to their OEMs.
I think my customer and OEMs are well prepared with this 25% base, and for last two and a half months, again, it came on track. Further, whatever the loss we had in the previous fiscal, we expect that it would be come back on the track on a monthly revenue what we had prior to that.
Jason Soans
Okay. The customers have accepted this 25%, and now you think things should improve from here on, right?
Hiren Doshi
Yes. Yes.
Jason Soans
Okay. Sure, sir.
Sir, you have mentioned in the presentation also that there's a customs duty due to which the other expenses have gone up. Now, what I understand is would that mean that when it was 53%, you paid a lot more, and there is some reimbursement supposed to come?
How just I'm a little unclear on how that other expenses has shot up. Exactly.
Hiren Doshi
You rightly understood that in between portion, I have paid 53 percentage of customs duty,
Jason Soans
and wherein
Hiren Doshi
my customers are going to reimburse me 25%, which are yet to be recognized. Even post decision of this Supreme Court, I'm supposed to get some kind of refund from the US government, and out of that refund, partially we are supposed to pay back to my customer also.
Whatever I'm supposed to pay back to my customer, that I have already recognized in my expense, and conservatively I have not recognized the revenue, the inflow what I'm expecting in this quarter, maybe by September '26. That would be added back straight to my revenue as and when I receive.
Jason Soans
Sure, sir. Sir, but just one thing.
Before October, I believe it was 53% or something like that, you must have booked the revenue as well as the customs duty as well. Why there is a lag?
Hiren Doshi
No.
Jason Soans
It is
Hiren Doshi
not directly one-to-one kind of thing. There is a consignment arrangement with my customer.
The duty applicability for me, it is as and when the goods are cleared at US customs, but for my customer, as and when they lift the material from the warehouse, they are going to pay back me accordingly as per the credit terms. That there is a time lag in between that.
Jason Soans
Okay. You're saying some of the goods still have to be lifted by the customer?
When they lift it, the revenue will come into your top line, and the excess, let's say 53% you have paid, whatever differential, that also will come through? Is it like a retrospective Yeah.
Okay.
Hiren Doshi
That is what yet to be recognized. Whatever even the consignment which is there at nominated warehouse at US, those are entirely duty-paid, and that has been already recognized.
Jason Soans
Okay. Sure.
Thank you, sir. Thanks for that.
Sir, also one question I had is, sir, Europe also was pretty weak in the initial part of the year, when you go back 12 months. Now Europe seems to have improved quite a bit.
You're talking about good outlook. Anything macroeconomically also Europe was pretty weak.
Even peers are saying that Europe seeing good demand, improvement. Anything which has changed on the ground materially in terms of policies or something which is bringing back growth in Europe?
Hiren Doshi
See, definitely there are certain kind of stimulus, some kind of boosting to just revive the European economy. The industries or the consumption, the production, which was almost zero at Europe level, and the even as of now they are facing some kind of inflationary for this conversion cost, power cost, and other remaining labor issues, etc.
The demand, end-use demand, retail, that is being started off, and that is why the reason the quantum which has reduced in fiscal '24, '25, that has came up again. For me, the good part is that we got a new orders from my customers as well as for the new plants, which was completely zero to me.
Even as of now, they are at, say, 30%, 40% of their production, but it is a 100% growth to me when they add this 30%, 40% to me. The first half, maybe till July '25, we had initially just started some kind of initial dispatches, and then the ramp-up has started.
Though it has not significantly ramped up in current fiscal, that is fiscal '26, particularly in the last quarter of fiscal '26, that is Q4, we had a good thing from the Europe, and that will remain continue and to be increased in fiscal '27.
Jason Soans
Sure, that's good, sir. Sir, you had given an update on the 170 1.75 billion of order inflows which you're expecting.
Of course, I know that this year has been very, very volatile with tariffs and all. Sir, most of those orders that pipeline which you had mentioned that was in Q3 FY '25, is that on track or how is that?
Just wanted an update on those order inflows which you had mentioned.
Hiren Doshi
See, let me tell you, the order book of 100 this 1.75 billion what you were mentioning, we told it that somewhere in December '24 that we are expecting these kind of revenue on the basis of the order book in fiscal '26, right? Let me tell you, out of that, the partially it was from US and partially from Europe, wherein Europe has turned around with the certain positivity, but we got a hit in US business.
Out of that 175, maybe 75, 80-odd crore business something we were able to add into my fiscal '26 business, but remaining not. Of that program, couple of programs are still on hold at US.
I'm not considering that thing in my fiscal '27 estimation, but beyond that, all the orders are on track. Apart from this 1.75 overall business, we got a new orders from European customers, which further would be added.
Partially it was started, few orders are still on hold, but the remaining would be added in fiscal '27, along with the new orders what we win from European side. In this current fiscal, that is fiscal '27, I expect again, on the basis of the order and all this previous fiscal order pendency, etc., all put together, again, 160, Rs 165 crore revenue would be added, apart from my existing business.
Jason Soans
Okay. Okay.
Sure. Sure.
Sure. Sir, just one thing just on the tariff thing, again, just some clarification, this one thing.
Now again, 31st October, before it was 53%, now it is 25%. Just wanted to understand that if it's 53%, when the tariff has been reduced to 25%, are we getting that extra money back also?
As in what I mean to say is that extra 28% what you paid, is it going to come back, or is that gone, and now it's 25% from now on? Just wanted some clarification on that.
Hiren Doshi
See, as per the Supreme Court judgment, till November, my product was not there in the list of 232 Section. Whatever the duty I have paid till that point of time, it would be refunded, additional duty, which has implied because of IEEPA, right?
That will be refundable. Beyond that, say from November '25 onwards, whatever the duty I have paid, which is 25%,
Jason Soans
of that,
Hiren Doshi
I'm not going to get back because that is under 232
Jason Soans
Section. Okay.
Before October, that what we paid, 28% roughly, just that way you will get refunded, which should be a good amount. That is very positive point.
Hiren Doshi
See, it is not there for the entire till October 31st, I was paying 28% or rather 53%. There were a portion prior to that it was 28%, there was a portion prior to that it was 13%, right?
It starts from that thing. This 13%, 28%, and 53%, there is a basic duty which was already there, 2.97%, prior to this IEEPA tariff for this thing.
That would not be refunded. It is a question of 10% additional 10%, additional 25%, and additional 50%.
Out of that, whatever I have paid till 31st of October under IEEPA tariff, I'm expecting refund on that amount, not beyond that. Again, there are certain litigations as far as the online refund and all these things that we are trying to coping, and to the best possible of these things, we are going to get back, and that would be straightaway added to my revenue.
Sure, sir. Sure, sir.
Jason Soans
Sure. Just finally, sir, one question wanted to ask.
On the EV side, even domestically and export side also, are you seeing some good traction? Because finally I see EV seeing good traction in the domestic market also.
In terms of bearing rings or automotive components, are you seeing good traction on the EV side? See,
Hiren Doshi
we are not facing or we do not see much of the traction as far as the EV market in overseas countries. Still now, even when we are talking with our customers for the new programs or for the new business, they are still more concentrated on this ICE and the hybrid kind of vehicles or rather transmissions.
It is true that some portion in India, the domestic market, it has a bit increased. If you see overall, the other ICE market has also increased.
We do not see much of the traction because of EV. Again, we are well prepared even if the significant penetration would be there, which is as of now for next five to seven years, we do not foresee.
Even after that, if it is so, we are able to produce the components required for the EVs in terms of gears, transmission parts, or maybe bearings also required in those EVs. That would not be a much of the issue.
Jason Soans
Sure, sir. This ROR thing, ROR element is absolutely finished, right?
Now there is no more anything coming up on that front.
Hiren Doshi
Yes. Yes.
Jason Soans
Yes. Sure.
Thanks for answering my questions, and thank you so much.
Hiren Doshi
Okay.
Operator
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Kush Nahar from Electrum PMS.
Please go ahead.
Kush Nahar
Yeah. Hi, sir.
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, couple of questions.
The first being that like you elaborated that the gross margin had expanded for this quarter because of the product mix. I just wanted to understand, how sustainable are these margins, and excluding the other income, where do we see our EBITDA margin on a normalized basis in the next two, three years?
Secondly, sir, do we have any plans to enter into warm forging or cold forging, where the products are near net shapes and less machining is required at the end use, and we in a more precise industry in terms of engineering? Sir, lastly, like you mentioned that there are some OEMs which have shifted their manufacturing, and import substitute is happening.
Directionally, since we are the largest players in terms of installed capacity in India, do we see this market share of 30% increasing to maybe 50%, 70% because of capacities? In line, are we doing the capex accordingly?
Hiren Doshi
Okay. From the bouquet of your questions, let me take the part.
One is for this incremental GP and what would be generalized gross margin in a normal case. See, as of now, let me tell you, in my kind of business or in my business particularly, you may expect overall gross margin to the extent of in the range of 49% to 53 percentage kind of thing.
That would be there. Again, product mix and because as I do have a good amount of or versatile range of the product, there is a different kind of inputs, different kinds of steels required, domestic, overseas, and with the different composition, so that cost matters.
Generally, it ranges in between 49% to 53 percentage kind of gross margin. Then I think you have also asked for the EBITDA, net operating EBITDA, that is apart from the other income.
As you must have seen that generally, we have this operating EBITDA in the range of 19.5% to 21% kind of thing. I expect, on an conservative way, operating EBITDA would not be less than 20.5%, 21% kind of thing.
With the incremental growth, further it may improve because maybe I'll be getting the benefit of scale of economy and fixed cost absorption. I think those were the couple of this thing.
The next one what you have asked is about warm forging and cold forging kind of thing. Let me tell you, we are 100% there in the hot forging route as of now, and we are producing major chunk or more than 85% of my overall business or products are machined one, and those are also near net shape kind of thing.
We are already there into that. Cold forging, again, it is some entirely a diversification kind of thing, and it requires a different kind of entire setup.
Down the line, as of now, it is not that aggression that we are going to have a cold forging business, but it is there in our mind. Once we would like to utilize or get the maximum benefit of this hot forging, for which we have already settled good amount of equipments and entire facilities.
That is there. The other portion, I think what you have asked is for the import substitute kind of thing in the domestic business.
Let me tell you, the way it was expected, definitely it is not that encouraging that import business is straightaway coming back to India. Partially, it has increased, and still it is on the coming way.
My customers are diversifying or rather increasing their capacity to produce a bigger size of products or to considering them as an import substitute and settling the facilities. Because of all these geopolitical disturbances also, that also gets some kind of disruption.
The things have started, and we are also going benefited with that, and partial business or some kind of new range of those products, it has already been started with us. May not be significant as of now, but down the line, it would definitely increase.
Coming to other part of your question that currently it is 30% of my bearing ring business rather in domestic share, which may go up to 50%, 60%, 70%. See, 50%, 60%, 70%, definitely it's a big time or a big journey, maybe in not one and a half, two years I'll be having 50% stake in the domestic market.
Definitely, I expect 10% to 15% jump on my domestic bearing ring business on year-on-year basis, so that will definitely increase my share into the domestic business. I hope I have considered or rather I have taken all of your questions.
Kush Nahar
Right, sir. Thank you for the detailed answer.
Sir, just lastly, since we have a 30% market share, who would be our next serious competitor?
Hiren Doshi
I don't want to name any serious competitor. I am very much concentrated on my business, my facility, because the kind of my setup and the facility what we have, maybe down the line the other people having hardly 20% of that or even something like that.
More than 26 kind of different forging lines, more than 625 CNC spindles under one setup with these kind of value-added processes, definitely nobody's there. I cannot say even my peer or rather the other players who are there into this kind of business or within the certain range of the products what I'm producing as of now.
They are there, but in fact, or rather they are not more than 10% to 15%, 20% of my overall capabilities.
Kush Nahar
Right, sir. All right, sir.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Radha from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited.
Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Thank you for the opportunity, and congratulations on the settlement of the long-pending restructuring case.
Sir, I wanted to understand, in Europe, is the demand recovery only in the commercial vehicle space or also in the passenger vehicle space? What kind of industry growth do you expect in FY '27?
Hiren Doshi
In Europe, I think major chunk what we got a growth is from the passenger vehicle as well as the light commercial vehicle growth, and the portion of that growth is, you can say, 70% it is there from this segment, and maybe balance 25%, 30% is from the industrial segment or something in that. We expect that this industry growth, definitely automotive growth would be on a higher side compared to industrial growth.
In domestic and in Europe, we expect that industrial applications for the bearing ring business, that is the high time to grow now as of now, maybe unless and until this disruptions, geopolitical factors may be settled down before first half or maybe in next couple of months. I think there would be a good significant improvement what we are envisaging.
What is driving this growth, sir? Is it inventory restocking that is happening over there?
Hiren Doshi
No. For Europe, it is not consumption of inventory or inventory clearance of inventory pile-up because as such, as I told you, that for me, these are the new customers or new plants.
Obviously, there would not be a question of any kind of inventory pile-up. Europe, again, it was very low for last one and a half year, and there is no inventory pile-up issue over there.
It is an growth in their production, in their actual ramp-up.
Understood, sir. Secondly, sir, out of the 30% revenue lost in US, how much revenue loss can be attributed to that one customer which had shut down the plant due to the tariff?
Hiren Doshi
Major chunk of that, you can say 75% of that is because of that duty tariff of 53
percentage. Yes, sir.
You had given a comment that this entire 30% revenue lost is recoverable. If 75% of the revenue loss is attributable to the shutdown of plant by a customer, then how is this portion of the revenue
Hiren Doshi
I told you that that was a temporary shutdown, and for last four months, again, it came on the track. For last couple of months, I have already started dispatching the level what we had prior to this slowdown.
It's not that the products have been shifted, they cancelled my order. It is a simply reduction of particular this.
Though they have been asking all the components what I'm supplying to them, but in a reduced quantum prior to this three, four months back. From February '26 onwards, it again came back on the track, and the volume what I have lost or the 30% something like that, partially it has already been started in a recovery mode.
Understood, sir. Sir, lastly, if you see the last five years' revenue, overall revenue for the company, the growth seems to be constrained, as you are present in three key geographies, and there is rarely a time when the demand of all three geographies remains strong.
Going forward, what are the key growth drivers that we can expect from the company in order to address these demand and cyclical challenges that we have across geographies? Are there any plans for new product introductions or new customers, any market share gains, anything that you can highlight, sir?
Hiren Doshi
See, ma'am, that is a continuous process over here. Let me tell you, in last three and a half years, though my revenue is continuously maybe on the same kind of level, but in last three years, we have developed many components for the medium and heavy duty vehicles, for EV, for hybrid, and for an industrial customer.
Because of that only, we got new orders in the previous fiscal. Let me tell you, prior to this new orders from Europe, we didn't have much of the presence in auto segments in European business.
Now it would be there, combination of though the bearing ring segment in Europe is bit down because of industrial this thing, but again, now I do have a good presence in this auto components. The growth in the business in Europe compared to previous fiscal is 25% in this fiscal '26.
That is mainly from the auto side of business. There is a development in that segment.
In US, we also didn't have much of the growth because of this duty tariff and all this thing. Again, we are in dialogues with a customer wherein the couple of bearing ring companies into industrial bearings, they are in process of appraising, but again, they are just deferring this thing because of this duty matter, etc.
Coming to the domestic, if you see my numbers for last three years on a bearing ring business, I am getting incremental business into the bearing rings. Even I'm getting incremental business in the auto segments also.
I was not supplying indirectly to the OEMs based in domestic market for the automobiles. Now, through my couple of suppliers, I have already started good amount of business to this car manufacturers.
Understood, sir. Those were my questions.
Thanks, and all the best to the team.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraint, we take one last question from the line of Pratik Banthia from Four M-325 Investment Advisors.
Please go ahead.
Pratik Banthia
Hi. Congratulations on a stable set of numbers in a challenging environment.
I just had two questions. One was, in what percentage of factories are we present with our top five customers, and what kind of share of business do we have with them?
The other question is, as we have created a deep capability in bearing rings, what other auto component segment do you think a similar capability can be built by us? See,
Hiren Doshi
the first part is the first five customers. I think you have asked the contribution from first five customers.
I would like to tell not a five customers. I would like to say a five customer groups.
When I say one customer, they are having certain plants in US, in Europe, in domestic. I am supplying to all this different plants, and for me, each plant is a different customer.
When I say a top five groups, you can say almost 65%, 70% of my business is from this top five groups, which may drill it down to somewhere about more than 15 plants or 15 different customers.
Pratik Banthia
What share of business do we have with them?
Hiren Doshi
On an average, let me tell you, with the bearing manufacturers, I think we are at 45%, 50% of their wallet share, the major three players. In auto components, with certain players, we are at 35% to 40% of their wallet share.
Pratik Banthia
Okay. The second question was, we have built deep capabilities on the bearing ring side.
What other auto component segment do you think
Hiren Doshi
We do have capabilities to produce hot forged auto components. Let me tell you, today, we are producing more than 150 kind of different auto components consisting of rough gear blanks, pinion, crown and pinion, then sun ring, then gear rings, then bush, then shafts.
These are the things what we are very much capable to produce. We do have expertise or rather you can say bit of more competence in producing transmission parts, chassis parts, and few of the steering components.
There, we have good amount of opportunities.
Pratik Banthia
Okay. One last question
Hiren Doshi
We are able to produce the components required for the EV and hybrid both. That also can be produced from our capabilities.
Pratik Banthia
Okay. One last question was, going ahead, what percentage of capex, would be what the capex split between, let's say, machining and forging?
Hiren Doshi
See, machining, it depends on the kind of the new business what I have been awarded. Forging is in the range of the business or rather the range of the products what I would like to address.
You can say 70%, 75% out of Rs 100, it is towards forging kind of setup, and maybe 25, Rs 30 required for machining and other capabilities.
Pratik Banthia
Okay. Any inorganic opportunities are we looking at, since we have some cash on the balance sheet?
Hiren Doshi
We are exploring that couple of things, but again, it is on a primary stage. We want to jump in into that thing as the things that overseas in US and Europe are not much encouraging or rather they are still under having in disturbance portion.
We are just exploring it, but we are on a very preliminary stage. We are very much open, and we are in finding the proper opportunity also.
Pratik Banthia
Any specific segments you're looking at?
Hiren Doshi
No, segment would be broadly extended to our products or rather our capabilities, or maybe in the line of the this thing, on hot forging or extended value-added processes.
Pratik Banthia
Okay. Thank you.
That's it from my side, and all the best.
Hiren Doshi
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we conclude the question-and-answer session.
I now hand the conference over to the management for their closing comments.
Hiren Doshi
On behalf of Rolex Rings, I would like to thank you, everyone, for joining us. I hope I have been able to answer all your queries.
We look forward to such interactions in the future. We hope to meet your expectations in the future, too.
In case you require any further details or this thing, you may contact directly to the company, to me, and/or our investor advisors, SGA, that is Strategic Growth Advisors, our Investor Relations partner. Once again, I thank you all the participants for sparing your valuable time for considering our earnings call.
Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. On behalf of Rolex Rings Limited, that concludes this conference call.
Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.
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