Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Q2 FY '27 earnings conference call of UltraTech Cement Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.
Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. I now hand the conference over to Mr.
Atul Daga, Chief Financial Officer of UltraTech Cement Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Atul Daga
Hi. Good afternoon, good evening, everybody, ladies and gentlemen.
Thank you for joining our second quarter '27 earnings call. The September quarter is always the one where monsoon writes part of the script.
This year, it brought a different twist, a weak monsoon that kept construction going alongside a West Asia conflict that flared up again and pushed fuel costs higher. Time and again, we keep hearing chatter about cement prices, which is on everybody's mind, and that's where I want to start first.
In a normal year, cement prices slip during July and August as rains slow site, and dealers chase volumes. This year, the industry largely avoided that.
Pan-India average trade prices for Q2 was stable, in line with Q1, with the quarterly average 1 1/2% lower mainly because of a soft August. In the second half of September, prices turned firmly upwards.
Trade prices must have risen 7 to 10 10 per bag month-on-month, and non-trade prices even higher. We exited September in trade at least about 3% above the Q1 average.
The quarterly average is weighed down by a soft August. The run rate we take into Q3 is materially better.
One more thing I want to clarify here for ourselves, UltraTech. We take a view on price changes with demand and macroeconomic trends.
It's not a rocket science. If demand overshoots supply, it leads to price improvements.
If there's a structural change in cost for the industry, ultimately, the end customers will have to bear the cost. Given the spread of the industry in the country, prices rise always with a lag to catch up on cost.
This is nothing new. This is an age-old phenomenon.
As for UltraTech, despite increase in costs, the company has achieved an improvement in operating performance, higher capacity utilization on a higher base, higher or stable realizations, improvement in efficiency, and a 21% increase in net profits. Prices for your benefit have risen substantially in the month of October and continue to stay high.
My sense is that there is more price improvement that will happen in the near future, in the next couple of months, that is to say. If you were to split the realizations by zone for the quarter: West, the prices were steady through July and August, stepped up in September, with Mumbai being the biggest market moving strongly up by 3% to 4% per bag for both bag and bulk.
Rest of Maharashtra, small dip in August was followed by a big increase in September. Eastern markets, rains disruption pushed prices down during August, but we have seen prices playing a catch-up across most of the states in the eastern corridor since early October.
South, North, and Central: South had been the strongest momentum in prices, volume, and capacity utilization. South markets are transforming.
South markets are transforming. Mark my words.
You might remember something which I had spoken to you a few quarters ago about the southern markets. North held steady.
New prices have been absorbed, while Central has played a muted game. Into October, we are seeing continuous increase in prices.
The festive weeks may slow down how and how quickly these prices are absorbed, we expect the full benefit of these price increases to reflect in the Q3 earnings rather than immediately. That's about prices.
Three points stand out. Realizations in the previous quarter were essentially stable, prices was not the cause of any decline in performance.
Fuel costs and raw material cost rose about 13% or 3% quarter-on-quarter. Fuel costs have risen from ₹45 a bag to 51.5 per bag.
That is the contribution of fuel cost Y-o-Y, as the fuel rates climbed to about 2.09 per kcal. This is the West Asia crisis effect, which we can discuss separately.
Third, other fixed costs per ton were 6% lower for us than the last year, even after absorbing new capacity, because absolute fixed cost grew only 4%, well below the volume growth of 13.8%. This is the operating leverage working for UltraTech as intended.
September month has given a glimpse of what comes next. That is an internal number.
As volumes remain strong, price increases have been coming through. When we look month-to-month performance, September was higher than the Q2 average.
Let me get to the next element of our industry, which is demand. Industry estimates put cement demand to grow closer to 10% year-on-year.
Our growth of 13.8% this quarter is comfortably ahead, which means that our presence in the market is continuously increasing. North markets grew in high double digits.
We have grown more than 20% in the northern markets, in the range of 15% to 20% in the southern markets, East around 5%, West around closer to 10%, as well as 10% in the central markets. Our capacity utilization was 71%, better than 66% last year on a higher base.
We could have grown more. We could have sold more cement if additional capacity was available, and that's why we are excited about our next phase of growth, which is around the corner.
Capacity utilization people often ask me. Let me give you the numbers up front.
North markets were upwards of 70% capacity utilization. North and South both were upwards of 70%.
West was a close second, about 70%. Central and East, East because of prolonged monsoons and heavy monsoons in the eastern markets, till two or three days ago also, I believe West Bengal was raining.
That's why the capacity utilizations were a shade around 60s. This quarter, we have commissioned a greenfield cement capacity in the southern markets.
Demand is growing in South. Prices are improving, and we are in a happy place in the southern markets.
Housing markets, individual homebuilder markets, the backbone of retail demand, kept buying through the quarter, helped by fewer rain-lost days. Public capex: Central government capex was very strong through July.
Road construction, though road construction has been weak, however, we are seeing new awards have picked up, which will result into higher demand in the following quarters or in the next couple of years. The project pipeline keeps growing.
I believe there were 100 announcements worth about 13.4 lakh crores by early September, which include Tamil Nadu's 55,000 crores power plant, 65,000 crores Gorakhpur Industrial Park, Assam's 50,000 crore 5-year infra program, Odisha's coastal highway, Metro 1 in Thiruvananthapuram, and the Bawal-Behror RRTS. Power, industrial parks, data centers, all are growing and all are cement-intensive.
In the states of Bihar, West Bengal, we are waiting for demand to unleash. There are multiple projects in pipeline, which will boost capacity utilization for us in the eastern corridor as well.
Looking ahead, most estimates put industry should grow very strong. We expect to grow stronger, supported by our capacity addition and market reach.
Activity typically picks up mid-November or, as you are all aware, after what is called Chhath Puja, after all the festive season is over, and monsoon's out of the way completely. We've already seen good signs of strong momentum in demand.
Much having talked about monsoons, let me not shy away from that. Monsoons were very weak this year since 2015, and I guess I'm told it's the fourth-lowest since 2001.
India has seen four very good preceding years with good monsoons, which is a very positive sign. There are drought situations in some part of the country, which I'm sure you are all aware of.
How does it impact us? Fewer rain-lost days kept sites working and made the usual seasonal dip in volumes much lower.
This is one of the reasons why industry would be growing very close to 10%, which is in a quarter which is normally a weaker quarter. East was the exception because East had torrential rains, local spells in July and August, heavy rains, flooding, disrupted construction, and pulled down both volumes and prices in that region.
Weak monsoon can hurt farm incomes and with a lag, rural housing. An important point to keep in mind is that Indian economy has been evolving.
There are several non-crop activities which are contributing to almost 40% of rural economy, with the help of MSME, non-agri sectors growing, mushrooming everywhere in the country. Besides, as I mentioned, last four years of good monsoons will also help or act as a cushion.
We expect rural demand might soften in some areas, while urban housing, infrastructure, private sector capex will continue to grow very strongly. West Asia crisis: Last quarter, we were expecting a de-escalation, crude prices falling, and things becoming normal.
A candid acceptance from my end, predicting a roll of a dice is easier than what will be the outcome on the West Asia crisis. How it is impacting us?
Petcoke prices have shot through the roof. They were trading around $170 or $180 per ton, as I last checked.
Petcoke, what we have done is we have reduced our dependence on petcoke. Since the last quarter, today we are down to about 25% of petcoke consumption in our overall mix.
Coal, power plants are being required to blend imported coal. Coal India is giving priority to the power sector, which tightens the domestic availability for the industry.
Industrial diesel prices have been continuously increased by the government. I believe they are at a all-time high as we speak, which impacts the raw material cost vis-a-vis the mining cost or the transportation costs.
These cost pressures, as we speak, we don't know what will happen, as I mentioned about the West Asia crisis, are here for some more time. That's all I can imagine.
Far, we have not seen any direct impact on cement demand. Our volumes show that clearly.
The indirect risks are higher inflation, tighter monetary conditions, and less fiscal room if fuel does not come down in terms of costs. We are watching all the three elements.
Our response follows a strategic plan: price discipline, product mix, and the premium products, and relentless cost work across fuel sourcing, power, and logistics. Our growth plans is the next topic which I want to touch upon.
We commissioned 4.6 million tons of capacity in the month of September, taking our domestic cement capacity to 204.7 million tons, which includes the 3.6 million tons greenfield capacity at Petnikota in Andhra and 1 million ton of debottlenecking at three other units. During the quarter, we also added 116 MW of renewable power, 10 MW of waste heat recovery, our green power index keeps on rising.
47% of our power needs were met from non-fossil fuel sources. We have also achieved a unique status of having 2 GW of renewable green power for captive consumption as a manufacturing sector.
We've commissioned AFR systems at two plants, taking our thermal substitution rate to about 7.2%. We are on track to reach 240 million tons of capacity as planned without any surprises.
UltraVolt: On 3rd September this year, we launched our wires and cables business under the brand UltraVolt. We already have a huge channel partner force in place.
An investment of 1,800 crores, which has been planned, we have spent 1,000 around 1,100 crores till date, and the balance will get spent in the next few maybe two quarters. This is the first month of launch or first month of operation, not even full month, maybe 27 days or 25 days of operation.
Please have patience. We will deliver an electrifying performance.
UltraTech has helped build walls, and now we are getting behind the walls. We have started with wires and light-duty cables.
It appears to be a very exciting space, and we are confident of growing rapidly. Currently, dealers, distributors, retailers, builders, contractors, electricians, EPC firms, and panel builders are all getting on board.
More than 1,500 UltraTech UBS channel partners have signed up to become dealers for our UltraVolt as a brand. Retail reach has already crossed about 80,000 points and growing very rapidly.
Supply chain is in place. We have mother plant at Jhagadia in Gujarat, one main warehouse with five regional distribution centers and 16-odd branch warehouses.
Production and sales of house wire, panel wire, and multicore cable has already started. Remaining power and control cable lines will be commissioned through the second half.
Our focus for this quarter shifts from building the network to stabilizing it. That means consistent fill rates at the counter, reliable replenishment from warehouse to dealers, credit discipline, tracking of secondary sales.
The aim is that every new partner sees the business turnover steadily, not just one-time launch stock. We are building this business.
Our performance will speak. To sum up, cement is our core.
We are growing very strongly in cement, and as alluded to, we are looking forward to our next phase of growth, which will take us way beyond 240 million tons of capacity. Cement demand is resilient, and we shall keep growing very strong.
Prices have held through the monsoons, are turning up at the exit, and seem to be holding. Costs remains a challenge, whilst West Asia situation unfolds on an everyday basis.
We are entering now the strongest season of the year with a better price run rate, more capacity, and cost structure that improves with scale. I won't pretend that second half will be free of cost pressures.
What I can promise is that we will manage it much better than anybody else under the sun, and you will see similar performance from UltraTech quarter after quarter. Thank you, as always, for trust in UltraTech, and over to you for questions.
Operator
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session.
Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.
Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.
The first question is from the line of Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Indrajit Agarwal
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on a strong volume growth.
A couple of questions. First, if you were to take spot costs across all front, fuel, industrial diesel, etc., what kind of variable cost inflation can we see in the second half from the current levels?
Atul Daga
You tell me what is in the mind of Mr. Trump, and I'll tell you what kind of inflation we'll see.
Cost, as I mentioned, Indrajit, are already elevated, and whether they have peaked, I am not an authority to comment on that. Really don't know.
Sorry, I don't have an answer to that, Indrajit.
Indrajit Agarwal
Sure. I was actually coming from if I take today's cost as is mentioned, petcoke is at $180 today.
If I extrapolate that, yeah, if I extrapolate that, per ton basis...
Atul Daga
Yeah. If you extrapolate that, as I also mentioned, the cost of fuel has gone up from ₹45 a bag to 51 a bag.
₹6 per bag is an impact of fuel increases. Maybe, but just 1 second, Indrajit, that is in the last quarter.
There might be some more increase that might happen.
There is always a inventory in the pipeline.
Atul Daga
Inventory also is there in the pipeline, you might have ₹10, ₹20 a bag kind of increase in No?
No.
Atul Daga
No. Okay.
Yeah. The reason is $180 as on today, but the past inventory with the most of the industry players.
Third quarter may not have a big impact, actually. Maybe definitely some marginal
Atul Daga
Marginal impact in the fourth quarter. Correct.
because it's a combination of imported fuel, domestic coal, and
Atul Daga
Not too much is what we are expecting going forward, Indrajit.
Indrajit Agarwal
Sure. This is helpful.
Second question on UltraVolt. Any change in strategy over there to enter into cables or broadly consumer electrical segment?
How are we pricing the current wires versus the existing players?
Atul Daga
Firstly, I think we have the feedback, the response that we have got is phenomenal, we are scaling up our business, and we will want to grow this business at a much faster pace than we had planned. Other than that, I am not able to comment any further.
As for pricing, I think there is a lot of confusion about pricing. Now there's one thing which you need to understand is that we've launched unique products, which were not existing in the marketplace.
The classic is class 5 insulation material or electron-beam technology product. That nobody has, and that product is what is commanding a premium now.
Our positioning is at market parity. Differentiation is being driven by our product proposition and not any undercutting of prices.
We are almost at par with whatever the market prices would be. For example, there is Green Core, which is the entry-level class 5 HR-FR, heat-resistant fire-retardant wires, which are at par with any other product in the marketplace.
Indrajit Agarwal
Sure. This is helpful.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital.
Please go ahead. Yeah.
Amit Murarka
Hi. Good evening, and thanks for the opportunity.
This first question on India Cements. That ₹160 per ton of Tamil Nadu levy, is this accounted for in this quarter or not?
Atul Daga
It's already accounted for. There is no reversal in that, Amit.
Whatever has been paid, it has been paid, no relief would be there. At least in future,
Amit Murarka
it's not No, I'm talking about the future only, because it happened during the course of Q2. In Q2 was it accounted?
Atul Daga
Yeah. We're not incurring any additional cost.
Now onward.
Atul Daga
From that effective date, whatever date it was.
Amit Murarka
Great. Just also on cables and wires, the press release that was put out that mentioned that we are also looking to expand into a broader range of electrical accessories.
Could you just clarify what exactly it means, what segments are being looked at?
Atul Daga
PVC conduit is an immediate thing that we are developing, which is required for our wires.
Amit Murarka
Okay. It doesn't include things like fans or other electrical appliances or anything like that?
Atul Daga
No. Amit, give me a break.
Amit Murarka
No, just clarifying because there was some confusion.
Atul Daga
I had clarified this long maybe we did not have a conversation, but that we're not doing fans and tubelights and whatever else you might think of.
Decorative.
Atul Daga
Decorative and bulbs or I'm just looking around the room and thinking what is electrical and No, I'm not doing that. No,
Amit Murarka
I get it. Just also on the capex, the first half seems to be pretty strong at 6,000-odd crores of capex, 5,882, as I see.
The full-year guidance stands at 10k, or it will go higher now?
Atul Daga
I would still stick to 10k, but it will be better to look at a full-year number after the Q3 results.
Amit Murarka
Got it. Just a last
Atul Daga
Plus-minus 10k.
Amit Murarka
Sure. Just a last question, if I may, interest costs jumped quite a bit in the quarter, of 22% or so Q-o-Q.
Could you just help understand why that happened?
Atul Daga
I had raised NCDs of about ₹5,000 crores at 7 1/4%, which were there for two months. My borrowings I have taken up.
I think in hindsight, it was a fantastic decision because now nobody will get the money at 7 1/4.
Amit Murarka
Got it. Thanks a lot, and best wishes.
We'll come back in the queue.
Atul Daga
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prateek Kumar from Jefferies.
Please go ahead.
Prateek Kumar
Yeah. Good evening, sir.
Congrats for good results. I have a couple of questions.
Firstly, on expenses related to wire and cables, is there any attributable amount which you can highlight for this quarter and how much you expect to do in 3Q and 4Q?
Atul Daga
No, nothing specific, Prateek. These are all routine expenses.
Our brand ambassador is common, expenses are also common. For the next two quarters, as I said, we are building the business, ramp-up, difficult to quantify.
First month is hardly anything.
Prateek Kumar
It's not as material so as to strip out and analyze EBITDA per ton?
Atul Daga
It's not material at all. It not material at all.
Prateek Kumar
Okay. Sure.
You talked about price increases in September and October, and thereafter further. With these price increases, do you expect to absorb cost, implying your EBITDA per ton on a year-on-year basis remain higher on next two quarters as well?
Atul Daga
That's the intention.
Prateek Kumar
Okay. Lastly on your debt, net debt has increased, you said you have raised some NCD, but your net debt has increased in second quarter versus first.
Is it related to dividend payment?
Atul Daga
Multiple things. It was more about capex, dividends.
Dividend was a one slug which had to be paid out on day a particular day. We were always in net debt position.
March end, we were at 0.94x net debt-EBITDA. We are at 1.24 26 24 1.26 net debt-EBITDA at the end of September '26, but by the end of March, I will be below 1x net debt-EBITDA.
Prateek Kumar
Sure. Thank you.
These were my questions. All the best.
Atul Daga
Thanks, Prateek.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Raashi from Citi Group.
Please go ahead.
Raashi Chopra
Thank you. Just a few questions.
On pricing, what is the quantum increase in both September and October vis-a-vis the second quarter average, on a percentage basis?
Atul Daga
1 sec. I knew this question was coming, I'm better prepared.
Q2 average, say, about 5% is what we have seen an increase. Theek hai na?
Yeah.
Raashi Chopra
Spot realizations are 5% higher than 2Q?
Atul Daga
I'm sorry?
Raashi Chopra
Spot realizations today are 5% higher than 2Q?
Atul Daga
Yes, please. Yes, please.
Raashi Chopra
Okay. Then, on the cost side, you mentioned in the presentation that the kcal cost for fuel is 2.1.
What does that translate into dollars per ton, and I'm just trying to understand where we are at now?
Atul Daga
Dollars per ton, I think it's lost its relevance because the way rupee exchange has been exchange rate has been fluctuating. If I were to take a shot at it, it would be around 150.
137.
Atul Daga
Should be anywhere between $140 to $150 per ton.
Raashi Chopra
Got it. The 2.1 per kcal, where is that today?
Atul Daga
2.1 might have gone to 2.2.
Raashi Chopra
You are suggesting that 3Q, 4Q should be similar, around 2.2?
Atul Daga
Yeah.
Raashi Chopra
There should be a decent reversal on your fixed costs in the next quarter?
Atul Daga
Yes, please.
Raashi Chopra
Other expenses which have jumped up.
Atul Daga
Operating leverage advantage will kick in.
Raashi Chopra
Got it. You just mentioned that you want to grow faster on the cables and wires than you've planned originally.
Does that mean the pace of ramp-up or does that mean the pace of capital expenditure beyond the 1,800 crores?
Atul Daga
No. There's no sanction.
The board hasn't approved anything beyond 1,800 at the moment. Ramp-up is what I was referring to because spent and committed is 1,100 crores, and we have to double the production from where we are today.
It's still in the build mode. With that capacity of 78,000 tons of copper consumption on an annualized basis, we are already number two in our space.
Let me be very clear. We does not require to invest any further to be a number two in terms of installed capacity.
Second point, if you will recall when we had announced our plans somewhere in first January-March quarter, '25?
February
Atul Daga
'25, we had targeted a revenue of ₹10,000 crores. Now, if you'll understand this market, it is driven by prices of copper.
If prices of copper go up, that ₹10,000 crore number has already shot up by itself. It's on an autopilot mode.
A ₹10,000 crore number would be somewhere around ₹16,000 to ₹18,000 crores depending upon the prices of copper. We are already number two in terms of installed capacity.
Raashi Chopra
This ₹10,000 crores was at what copper price?
Atul Daga
Whatever was prevailing in February '25, I don't remember it off-hand, but I'll give it to you.
Raashi Chopra
This is at full ramp-up,
Atul Daga
right? I'm sorry?
Raashi Chopra
This is at full ramp-up, right?
Atul Daga
Yeah.
Raashi Chopra
What kind of utilization are you expecting in the second half of this year and next year?
Atul Daga
Very difficult because they're still building the business, but we should see mature performance for fiscal '28.
Raashi Chopra
Got it. Okay.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie.
Please go ahead.
Ashish Jain
Hi, sir. Good evening.
Sir, first, just one clarification, cable and wire will be reported in standalone financials from next quarter? It's not done as subsidiary or something.
Atul Daga
It's a division, it's part of my financial.
Ashish Jain
It will be in standalone.
Atul Daga
It's part of my financials.
Ashish Jain
Okay. Sir, secondly, earlier you spoke about current prices are 2.2, current kcal cost for energy is ₹2.2, and you think this 2.2 sustains for whole of second half.
Is that what you alluded to?
Atul Daga
Unless he drops MOAB on Iran and 180 becomes 300, very difficult to say, yaar. No, no.
No,
Ashish Jain
no, sir. Obviously, I mean to say assuming 180 remains 180.
That I'm saying. Yeah.
Yeah.
Atul Daga
If nothing else happens, then yeah, 2.2.
Ashish Jain
Okay. Sir, then with this 5% price hike, we are fairly comfortable from a sequential margin standpoint?
Or there is some other cost element?
Atul Daga
Ashish, we spoke about it already.
Ashish Jain
Got it. Sir, just lastly, in terms of our capacity expansion plans in North, given we are consistently operating at fairly high capacity utilization, is that a area of focus for us from incremental expansion point of view?
Atul Daga
Yes, please.
Ashish Jain
Which will be catered to in the next round of
Atul Daga
Yes. Yes, I've already been hinting at it.
We will come with our detailed plans before the end of this financial year.
Ashish Jain
Okay. Got it, sir.
Thank you so much then.
Atul Daga
Thanks, Ashish.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Siddharth Mehrotra from Kotak Securities.
Please go ahead.
Siddharth Mehrotra
Congratulations on a good set of volume numbers. Sir, just wanted to check on our capital allocation plans.
Do we plan to sort of increase our payout ratios on a structural basis similar to this year?
Atul Daga
I'll let the board decide that at the end of the year. I can't take a decision on my own.
The board has taken a decision to keep reviewing its dividend distribution year-on-year basis the performance of the company.
Siddharth Mehrotra
Understood, sir. Secondly, sir, is there any plan to upsize our capex in the wires and cables division, given that we've almost spent 2/3 of the planned capex?
Any sort of update on that, sir?
Atul Daga
I think we've already mentioned in our presentation we have spent ₹1,100 crores to date. ₹1,100 crores includes commitments made, which means that machinery is still coming as part of our ₹1,800 crore plan, which will help us ramp up.
Siddharth Mehrotra
Got it. Just one last question, sir.
Can you just tell us about this corporate guarantee we've given to UHG Holdings? I understand it's majority owned by Hindalco, just wanted to check what is the sort of end use of this corporate guarantee.
Atul Daga
End use for UHG, essentially that company will be buying aircrafts and ships, which will be deployed in our business use. UltraTech is 41% holding, 9% is held by Grasim, 50% is held by Hindalco.
That company will be borrowing money for which we have given a corporate guarantee, which helps them get finer interest rates.
Siddharth Mehrotra
Understood. This is probably a shared resource between the group companies.
Yes, please.
Atul Daga
Yes, please.
Siddharth Mehrotra
Got it, sir. Thank you.
Atul Daga
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all participants, we would request you to please limit your question to two per participant.
The next question is from the line of Jashandeep Chadha from Nomura. Please go ahead.
Jashandeep Chadha
Hello. Hi, sir,
Atul Daga
and
Jashandeep Chadha
wishing you a happy Dussehra in advance. Thank you, sir.
My first question is on demand. We have seen weaker monsoon, and normally, the rural income or rural consumption we have seen declines after a weaker monsoon.
Plus, there is also household inflation which is increasing. In light of that, how do you see the second half of this financial year and next financial year demand overall, both from trade and non-trade, and especially on the rural segment?
How will that be impacted?
Atul Daga
Good question, Jashandeep. I think demand is what is the strongest support for the cement industry at the moment, and for period ending till March '29, we should see very strong momentum in cement consumption.
New opportunities which are surfacing, data centers coming up in a big way, private sector capex, practically most of the industry is expanding capacities. Semiconductor industry, that's a new animal on the block which is rising in a big way.
Urban housing continues to grow. There have been lesser announcements which people start getting worried about, but right now, lot of projects are in the finishing mode, and next phase of growth of these real estate players will surface.
I had talked about a data point, I think last quarter or earlier, the land buying which all these real estate players have done accumulated in '25 over '24, in '25 over '24 was almost 1 1/2 times. That is where urban real estate will start playing.
Government has started announcing big plans: seven or eight new metro extensions, Neeraj, seven or eight extensions of metro, metro rails? Around eight metro extensions have been announced, which will be cementitious.
Mumbai is going through a breakneck pace for cement consumption. Demand all in all will remain strong.
As for rural, I think I've mentioned in my comments, almost 40% of rural markets are no longer dependent on agri sector. Plus, last four-year monsoons have been very strong.
There can be MGNREGA programs. I don't know about that, but I'm hoping and expecting there'll be some new MGNREGA programs which the government might launch, which will result into reasonably improvement in cash flows in the rural hands.
Of course, it goes without saying that there are some really bad situations of drought, typical in South Maharashtra.
There
Atul Daga
are standard pockets, one or two pockets in India goes through a very bad drought condition. Law of averages will catch up, and we should still see good amount of demand.
Sir,
Jashandeep Chadha
will you be comfortable in sticking to your assumptions that you gave last time around, let's say, 7%, 8% and double-digit for UltraTech?
Atul Daga
Jashandeep, you look at first half. The monsoon quarter gone by, and I imagine the industry will have a first-half growth of 8% or thereabouts.
First half kitna tha? First quarter you remember, guys,
kitna tha?
Atul Daga
First quarter was 6 1/2, this quarter could be 9, you're already at 7 1/2%, 8% for supposedly a weaker period for the cement industry. Cement industry goes through the roof November onwards, we should be doing, industry should do very well.
Jashandeep Chadha
Understood. My second question is also related to this, sir.
Hold on,
Atul Daga
Jashandeep. This is your fourth question.
You can't keep calling every question a second question.
Jashandeep Chadha
No, no. Sir, this is genuinely my second question.
Related one on, sir. The industry has been doing very well on the volume front, but the pricing has not been, and there are multiple factors, I understand, why the pricing has not gone up.
Just wanted to understand that over the second half and next year also, is it largely that the demand is being driven by non-trade and industrial and not, I'll say housing that much, and do you see that happening next year also?
Atul Daga
I
Jashandeep Chadha
understand that urban No. I think
Atul Daga
if I look at my own ratios, and I would qualify UltraTech as a surrogate for India's growth, our trade ratios Now trade ratios are largely housing-dependent. We are consistent in our trade ratios, whether it is 65.7 or 66 or 65.1.
It's between 65% and 67% our trade ratios, which reflects clearly on how the IHB or the retail demand is growing. Yes, the industrial volumes are definitely growing at a significantly larger pace, but housing or retail demand is not losing its share of the growth.
Last year, last year as in year ended March '26, the industry sales were 465 million tons?
463,
Atul Daga
465 million tons. Our sales were one How much?
140,
Atul Daga
145 million tons. Our trade ratios what they were at that point in time, we'll be maintaining those ratios, albeit our volumes growing significantly higher.
I think this is the way I would rather explain to you that please be comfortable that retail demand is not going anywhere.
Jashandeep Chadha
Understood, sir. Thank you.
If I can squeeze in a very small question, sir. How are you looking at domestic thermal coal?
Is there enough availability, and have the prices gone up? Just last question, then I'll join back.
Atul Daga
Domestic coal is squeezed because Coal India is first catering to the domestic TPPs, I think availability is a constraint.
Jashandeep Chadha
Understood. Thank you so much, sir.
I'll join back the queue.
Atul Daga
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we request you to please limit your question to two per participant.
The next question is from the line of Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Rahul Gupta
Hi. Thank you for taking my question.
Atul sir, one medium-term question. Industry demand looking good.
We saw acceleration over the past couple of quarters, and also, at the same time, industry supply is looking to grow relatively slower than what we were expecting maybe earlier this year. Do you think that pricing power is returning for the industry, or do you think that cost savings will continue to remain the key driver of margin expansion?
That's the first question.
Atul Daga
I think pricing will lead the way, is leading the way. Clearly, and Rahul Rahul, I had already mentioned earlier, cement industry, with the way the dynamics of the industry are, the spread of the industry that exists across the country, prices rise always with a lag.
Whenever there have been these macro events impacting the industry, still cement industry takes its time to first absorb its existing capacity in the market before price increases are taken. Now, I think we are sold out, we have to take pricing.
Till we are able to sell material, there was no need to take price increases. I don't care about what anybody else says.
I know what we are doing. Now the prices are leading the way.
This is a sweet spot to be in: price improvements, volume growth, cost optimization. What else one could ask for?
Rahul Gupta
Got it. Got it.
That's very very very helpful. My second question is on UltraVolt.
You mentioned that fiscal '28 should be a mature business for the cables and wire business. What kind of utilization and margins are you expecting when you say that fiscal '28 should be a mature business for the division?
Atul Daga
It's just 25 days. The baby is just born, and you are expecting the baby to run a marathon and asking me in how many hours will I complete the marathon?
I think that's little too much. Give us some time.
My sense is April-June '27 will be a quarter worth talking about. Right now, let us build the business.
Rahul Gupta
Got it. No, that's very helpful.
Thank you so much, and wish you all the best.
Atul Daga
Thanks, Rahul.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec India.
Please go ahead.
Ritesh Shah
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity.
Sir, first question, do we have any low-price contracts on fuel or polymer, which will help better our cost curve placement versus the industry if we had to look at second half of the fiscal?
Atul Daga
I won't be able to reveal that to you on the call.
Ritesh Shah
Sir. I'll call you separately.
Sir, second question, you indicated 2.1 probably going to ₹2.2 per kcal. When we look at the headline numbers, be it petcoke, Indonesian imported coal, PP prices, we are looking at very, very steep inflation.
When we say that we don't see much of cost curve increase into the second half of the fiscal, how should we appreciate that?
Atul Daga
Read your first question in line with your second question, you will know the answer. You'll be able to appreciate that.
Ritesh Shah
Sir, the second question also include Okay, I'll
Atul Daga
Second question also includes what?
Ritesh Shah
I'll call you separately, sir. That would be fine.
All right.
Atul Daga
All right.
Ritesh Shah
I'll just buy a second question. Any sustainable cost improvement initiatives that we should look at for FY '27, '28 besides the renewable energy stuff that we are doing specifically?
Atul Daga
The steady state programs which are in place, ongoing, those are the programs. If there's anything new, we are doing a lot, not quantifiable at the moment, but we are doing a lot with AI, which is helping us reduce our operations cost, whether it is manufacturing or logistics.
Logistics, I have already called it out as a part of my cost reduction program. Huh, Mukesh?
India Cements will come. Benefit.
Yeah.
Atul Daga
India Cements, my colleague just pointed out, India Cements, where we clocked 500 bucks in their books will ₹500 per ton in their books will get a lot of cost improvement advantage now to take us to a four-digit mark. Because we will be taking major shutdowns for India Cements kilns for upgradation, for attaching WHRS coolers, increasing the preheater height, etc., which will result into, as promised and committed, into the fiscal '28 Fiscal '28?
January-March '28 quarter to be a fabulous quarter for India Cements. Yeah.
Ritesh Shah
Thank you so much for the answers. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pinakin from HSBC.
Please go ahead.
Pinakin Parekh
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you very much for giving me the opportunity. Sir, I have one question.
We had a ₹1,400 EBITDA per ton exit March '28 vision or guidance. Do we assume that it would be on hold till we see the peak of cost inflation behind us?
Or in the current industry dynamics, even with price increases taking place with the lag, you are still confident of hitting that number of ₹1,400?
Atul Daga
Pinakin, I think we have discussed this. Business as usual is what my expectation is to deliver that 1,400.
If the cost pressures come in, they will get covered by price increases, yes, we will deliver our commitment.
Pinakin Parekh
Got it. Thank you very much, sir.
Operator
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Sanjeev Kumar Singh from Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Please go ahead.
Sanjeev Kumar Singh
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. My first question is on the South region.
You gave a strong commentary about the recovery in this region. However, when I look at the presentation, I see that infrastructure activities have been muted for the last two quarters, this is as per the presentation, and I believe that is still is a very large part of demand drivers.
Overall, are you seeing a strong demand from other parts like commercial and rural? Or you are
Atul Daga
No, no, no. Our capacities are fully sold out in South.
Whilst infra activity might have been slow, relatively as compared to the other sectors, but demand continues to be strong. If you read our analysis, there was a crisis on aggregates.
Aggregates in Kerala and Karnataka because there were some movement bans in TN state also. These are temporary phenomena.
Now Chennai is going through its next phase of metro construction, Tamil Nadu housing is growing, auto sector is growing, data centers are the biggest driver for growth in the southern markets.
Sanjeev Kumar Singh
Okay. Secondly, sir, for UltraVolt, we have mentioned that pin code presence is around 500-plus.
Is this the number where our products are available, or we have onboarded dealers as of now? Secondly, have we booked any revenue from this segment?
Because when I look at unallocated others revenue, absolute amount has increased to 3.2 billion from 1.5 billion in 1Q.
Atul Daga
Yeah. It's not 500 pin codes.
If I remember it right, 15,000 pin codes. Yes, material has to be available at all those pin codes.
We've built inventories across our distribution network and waiting to supply. In fact, because production is not ramping up, quite often, we are reaching a stock-out situation.
We are equipped to cater to all the pin codes that we have reached out to. The 80,000-plus network which has been built till date, that is what is in a ramp-up mode.
Sanjeev Kumar Singh
Okay. Lastly, can you give the blended cement and premium cement share in this quarter?
Thank you, sir.
Atul Daga
37% is my premium cement, and blended cement would be 68%. Blended is 67.3%.
Sanjeev Kumar Singh
Thank you, sir.
Operator
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Gaurav Nagori from Avendus Spark.
Please go ahead. Yeah.
Gaurav Nagori
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, in continuation to the last participant question, when you said South is transforming, what were you alluding to this because of the volume growth alone or you think the region is now right for a much better pricing growth compared to the other regions in India?
Atul Daga
You've asked a question and answered it also yourself, Gaurav. Pricing is strong, capacity utilization is very strong.
We grew between 15% and 20% volume terms on a base our base has gone to 50 million tons in South?
On a Huh?
Atul Daga
Capacity base, yeah. Our capacity is about 50 million tons in South already and growing.
Prices are improving. Products are getting optimized, costs are going down.
It's a very happy place to be in.
Gaurav Nagori
Okay. Do you foresee the South profitability for you going at par with the all-India average or, let's say, the other profitable regions?
Atul Daga
Yes, please.
Gaurav Nagori
Okay. Second question, sir, on your UBS outlet growth, which has been growing upwards of 20% for quite some time.
Is it possible to quantify how much of the cement that you sell from the UBS outlet in terms of volume or value?
Atul Daga
I haven't quoted in the presentation? It's a phenomenal number, more than 25%, 26% of trade sales, huh?
Tell me the exact number. Just 1 second.
Gaurav Nagori
Sure.
Atul Daga
More than 25% of my trade sales, 25 of trade or total? Trade.
Neeraj is saying, 25% of trade sales is through UBS network.
Gaurav Nagori
Do you foresee this number, let's say, becoming 50-50, let's say, over next 4, 5 years because it could lead to a good savings from a dealer margin point of view for you?
Atul Daga
We have already reached about 6,500 store network. We'll not stop before 10,000 stores, which should happen in the next two or three years.
Three years, Neeraj? 10,000 stores?
Three years, which is '28, '29, we should be reaching about 10,000 stores. UBS network definitely contributes very well to our sales.
Gaurav Nagori
Got it. Thanks for the answer.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pathanjali Srinivasan from Sundaram Mutual Fund.
Please go ahead.
Pathanjali Srinivasan
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.
Great set of numbers, as usual. I have a few questions.
Firstly, on cement, I think, in terms of regions, you've been mentioning that South and East is where you expect things to get better over the next few years, but in terms of timeline, how do you see this progressing, sir? Will it be a gradual improvement quarter after quarter, or will it be more of a timed event from our side as to how we want to play things here?
Atul Daga
No. Growth in terms of?
Pathanjali Srinivasan
The price increases and profitability increase, will it be a gradual ramp-up across these two regions, or
Atul Daga
It'll be a gradual ramp-up.
Pathanjali Srinivasan
Okay. Any timeline, sir, when we expect the It's
Atul Daga
always is linked to demand. If we are running on a fully sold-out basis, then naturally, it leads to improvement in profitability.
I think I'm waiting for the India Cement plants' refurbishment or retrofit that we are undertaking now. You will see a big delta improvement in the South profitability after that.
Pathanjali Srinivasan
I have one more question, sir, on UltraVolt. I think you've mentioned that your current capacity spend that you're doing will be enough to take you up to 17,000, 18,000 crores of revenue.
In terms of capital allocation, I think we currently do 11 13% ROCE last year, whereas the wires and cables does about 22%, 23%. Will we be getting towards that in this segment, or will we try to find somewhere middle ground and try to gain more market share?
Atul Daga
No, the market is growing very well and it's enough room for us to play. Market share will come naturally.
I think we are already in the first month for whatever insights I have, we have gained substantial presence in the marketplace. As I said, again, I'm repeating, please give us some time.
This is just 25-month-old business for us.
Pathanjali Srinivasan
25-days-old
Atul Daga
business.
Pathanjali Srinivasan
Definitely, sir. No questions on the time part, just on the strategy part, what we are thinking to do, that is more
Atul Daga
Strategy, I think we will be well-capitalized for this business. Today, we have spent 1,100 crores committed, which means cash spend is slightly lesser.
Machines are still flowing in. We will first consume our 1,800 crores of capital, mature this business, and then look further.
Pathanjali Srinivasan
Got it. Thank you, sir.
Atul Daga
We are not playing this business from ROCE averaging point of view. This is a good space to be in.
We feel that it synergizes with our business. As you've seen, our dealer community is rapidly getting onto this bandwagon of our UltraVolt activity.
We are confident, and we are building this business very structurally.
Pathanjali Srinivasan
Got it, sir. Thank you so much, sir.
Happy Diwali.
Atul Daga
Happy Dussehra, happy Diwali to
Operator
you.
Atul Daga
Thank you for complimenting our numbers. Nobody did that, which is very sad.
Operator
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today.
With that, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Atul Daga for closing comments.
Atul Daga
Thank you everybody for patiently listening to us, and all your questions have been very pertinent, and I hope we have been able to answer as many questions as we could. One point which I want to leave with all of you, is if you were to look at UltraTech's performance quarter after quarter, compare it with rest of the industry put together on one side and UltraTech on the other side, we have consistently grown at a pace higher than the industry and delivered profitability higher than rest of the industry.
That's the hallmark of UltraTech Cement. Second point, most importantly, is we are very focused.
Cement is our core. I am waiting to announce our next phase of growth, which will take us beyond your imagination, beyond our 240 million tons of capacity, the organic growth plan.
Don't let your imagination fly anywhere else. It's organic growth plan that we are talking about.
The plan is getting stitched. We do a thorough homework and detailing around our plans before we get down to business of executing it, and when we execute it, it remains within the timelines and within the costs that we commit.
India is in a very sweet spot, or cement is in a very sweet spot in India today. The next two or three years, 2 1/2, 3 years, till March '29, we should be seeing a very good volume growth for cement.
That is the biggest driver. That is the biggest ask that we as cement players are looking for.
A good volume growth, good demand in the economy will lead to everything else also falling in line. With that, I end the call, and thank you so much once again for listening to us, wishing you all a very happy Dussehra and a happy Diwali to you and all your family members.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of UltraTech Cement Limited, that concludes this conference.
Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
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