Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited

Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited

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Mar 17Next Earn

Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 22, 2026

Operator

I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Miles Hurrell, CEO.

Please go ahead.

Miles Hurrell

Good morning. Thank you for joining us this morning.

I'm joined this morning by Andrew, Murray, Ronald, and Richard here to answer your questions on the half-year results. Headline comments from me is that really pleased with the results that we've been able to put out today on the back of an increase in milk price in recent times, of which we've increased our forecast on that this morning.

The team have delivered a set of strong results across all parts of the organisation. On that, I'll hand across to the questions.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question.

Your first question today comes from Joshua Dale with Craigs Investment Partners. Please go ahead.

Joshua Dale

Morning, gentlemen. First question, could you give us a sense of your exposure to the Middle East, I suppose both from a revenue and energy cost perspective, and presumably any exposure is captured within the range of your guidance for this year?

Andrew Murray

Did you say energy cost? I didn't quite get the second part you said there.

Joshua Dale

That's right. Yep, whether that's diesel, coal, etc.

Andrew Murray

Got it. Okay.

From a Middle East perspective, at the moment we've got product flowing up, which is good. We're pretty comfortable with that.

Obviously a bit of shipping delays in there, and there are additional sort of shipping costs that are coming in. We have got a little bit of impact of that, but nothing obviously in the first half, but in the expected earnings range, we have taken into account of that.

If I look at in terms of cost, diesel, etc., we are well hedged in those positions, we won't see an impact of that at least through until the sort of last quarter, I would expect, before we see any sort of impact there, because we do maintain our hedging program for all of those things. We're in a pretty good spot from that perspective.

The relationship that we have with Kotahi is allowing us to get product up into the right space, and so we're pretty much hitting the right ports at this point in time, although there's a little bit more land transport in those Gulf countries. If I look at it from that perspective, yeah, it's actually not too impactful at the moment.

What we have is that if I look at our range for the earnings for the back half, then yeah, we've got a little bit of conservativism in there to take account of the fact that if this goes on for a little bit longer, then it's going to start having knock-on effects. At the moment, relatively muted, but we have been cautious with our back half just in case this flows out a little bit longer than we're expecting.

Joshua Dale

Right, that's helpful. Thanks, Andrew.

Previously, you said the

Andrew Murray

Just saying

Joshua Dale

Sorry, go ahead.

Andrew Murray

No, I was just going to say just from an energy perspective as well, just if we look at that, we hedge out those as well, from an energy perspective, it's not having a knock-on either.

Joshua Dale

Great. On ERP costs, previously I think it was mentioned those costs were to peak in FY '26.

I noticed on slide 4 you're talking FY '26, '27 now. Do you see a ramp-down in those costs in FY '28 still, or does it push out the timing of your target of getting back to pre-divestment levels of profitability by FY '28?

Andrew Murray

It's not going to impact that, we'll probably end up with that just a little bit less spend in '26 and a little bit more in '27, we're just having that flow out. We are on track and on budget for the total program, and we expect that it will still end in the same spot, and we've just done a little bit of rephasing between '26 and '27 as things have played out.

We are live in well, two sites and in one market at the moment, so that has all gone as we expected it to, we're not seeing any cost overruns. We're not seeing a time overrun, but just a little bit of phasing between '26 and '27.

Joshua Dale

That's helpful. Thanks.

Last one, your dividend policy remains unchanged. Your balance sheet's looking stronger now compared to when it was set initially.

Any foreseeable change to dividend policy at all?

Andrew Murray

No, we're not looking at anything from a dividend policy at this standpoint. Obviously, we've got our capital program that we want to continue to invest in.

Obviously, that's part of us getting back to our '28 earnings is to continue to invest in the growth parts of the business, we feel pretty comfortable with where we are from an earnings and a dividend standpoint at the moment.

Joshua Dale

Thanks very much, guys.

Operator

Your next question comes from Arie Dekker with Jarden. Please go ahead.

Arie Dekker

Oh, good morning. First a quick mention, Miles.

Congratulations on an amazing tenure in charge of CEO. I don't think there'd be many cases in terms of the wide gap between where the state of the business was when you took over as CEO and the state you leave it in, yeah, well done.

Just first question, on the farmer offering slide, obviously very strong growth in milk supply, for a range of reasons including the net gains from competitors, which is great to see. Can you just sort of talk to what your expectations are of sort of the sustainability of milk supply at those sorts of levels and what sort of factors would swing it?

Miles Hurrell

I'm I'm I'm not sure I understand the questions en- entirely, but we we are still seeing new conversion in the South Island. It's it's probably a a key point.

We haven't seen any new competitor builds announced in recent times, so that's that that's helpful for the next next couple of years. That that said, it's a competitive environment, of course, and and the DIRA legislation while while that's up for a review at some point, doesn't doesn't mean that that that changes the the competitive landscape.

We're we're confident in our farmer offering. It starts with a with obviously a strong performance of of the organisation, and and obviously we've got sustained performance now, and as a result, we're starting to see good, strong momentum with with farmers wanting to come back or existing farmers actually looking to grow also.

Tho- those things give us give us confidence. Our position into the long term is sort of that slightly up, I guess, if you can call it that.

Historically, you might have called it flat flat to slight decline might have been a position we've taken historically. Our position at the moment's now flat to slightly up is probably the way to describe it, whe- weather depending on on any given year of course.

Arie Dekker

Off this FY '26 base of supply, you would sort of have expectations of it being flat to slightly up?

Miles Hurrell

I think this year's a slight anomaly and obviously a strong milk price last year and this year, you might want to normalize slightly back. We're at 1,565 versus last year's 1,509, somewhere in the middle of the two might be a good starting point if you wanted then to use my basis of a flat to up slightly,

Arie Dekker

yeah. No, that's helpful.

Thank you. Just on that competitive landscape, obviously we've seen a number of your competitors struggling.

Have you sort of entertained any discussions re sort of, consolidation probably wouldn't be the right word, but where sort of assets might have been offered to you and does the co-op have any interest in that?

Miles Hurrell

Probably the first and maybe the only thing I can probably say in this area, Arie, is that if we were to ever look at any assets that may or may not have become available previously, first and foremost is, is it the right thing to do for our existing shareholder base? If it answers yes, then you start to look at the next phases.

Just that's probably the most important thing here. There's nothing else would come more important than would it support our existing shareholders?

If the answer to that was yes, then you'd go to the next phase and look beyond. I won't say probably much more than that.

Arie Dekker

Cool. Then just one final question from me.

Just going through the ERP transformation at the moment as Josh touched on, and the annual spend at the moment, including sort of in first-half run rate across both your normal information technology spend and then the ERP replacement is around the $300 million mark. It must be at a point presumably where you sort of have an idea of what that cost base in IT will settle at once the new ERP is implemented in '28?

Just looking for a bit of a guidance on what that level is just cuz it probably informs a reasonable amount of those earnings sort of upsides that you pointed to at the FY '25 result.

Andrew Murray

I think if we take the ERP program, obviously that's a significant investment which gives us a good sort of base technology level, which we've been obviously investing behind. There's a chunk of that spend that will come out obviously, because we won't be continuing to do that.

However, technology is certainly a part of the business that continues to be something that we will invest in. There's plenty of new technology out there that allows us to perhaps get other efficiencies elsewhere.

What I would say is we'll certainly reduce down from what's currently there, but I don't think it would be the whole impact of the ERP just coming out, take it somewhere between those.

Arie Dekker

Thank you.

Andrew Murray

No worries.

Operator

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Matt Montgomerie with Forsyth Barr.

Please go ahead.

Matt Montgomerie

Hi guys, good morning. I'll just echo comments from Arie with respect to your tenure, Miles.

Done. Just maybe firstly on Foodservice and in margins specifically, pretty strong couple of quarters to start the year.

Could you maybe just strip out the China Consumer components within that? Cuz what's sort of been the delta between this year and last year and getting losses maybe back to break-even and where we sit today on that side?

Miles Hurrell

Just at a high level, the Consumer piece of it's sort of almost a rounding error, it's immaterial in that number. That is a strong growth in Foodservice margin.

To be fair, it comes on the back of a declining fat price in the first half of the year. We've been able to hold those price in up while our fat pricing came back from a COGS perspective.

That's been a key driver of it, but at the same time, driving growth as well. It's a combination of all, but Consumer's part of it's very small.

Matt Montgomerie

Okay. Consumer's maybe at break-even now, there's not that sort of earnings benefit to come through that I can't remember what the loss was.

It was still somewhat significant, I can't recall. No.

Miles Hurrell

No, it had turned to profitability in the last couple of years, albeit a relatively minor

Andrew Murray

On some of the brand impairments, yes.

Miles Hurrell

Beyond brand impairments,

yeah. Correct.

Andrew Murray

It's still minor.

Matt Montgomerie

Yeah. Yeah.

Then just to confirm on one of Josh's earlier questions around the 3-year earnings target, is there any reason that hasn't been I guess reiterated today? Presumably you're still well on track if anything, maybe the first half is

Andrew Murray

No change. We're 100% committed to that.

Then

Matt Montgomerie

just on this year's guidance, the midpoint has been lifted 2.5 cents, but it feels like the first half is probably tracking quite a bit better than that. I guess we make the assumption that the Middle East doesn't get out of hand relative to your current expectations, or is it fair to assume that we're probably tracking more towards the top end of your range today?

Albeit appreciate there's a range there for a reason and the uncontrollables that can come through. It just feels like the first half was probably better than what the guidance uplift has been factored into.

Miles Hurrell

I think that's a pretty fair reflection, is that the situation we see ourselves in the Middle East means we've just got to see a bit of water to go under the bridge before we make any further changes. You're right, a strong first half, more sales will be coming in the second half given the milk flows.

Things look positive in that regard, but with the downside risk of what could play out through the Middle East. Hence the reason we still have kept the top end of the range unchanged.

Matt Montgomerie

Yep. Alright, thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Nick Mar with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Nick Mar

Morning, guys. Just in terms of stream returns and the like, looks like the sort of hedging and risk management products you've got on has sort of worked quite well.

Can you just talk to how you sort of view the net impact of those going forward and whether or not you think you've genuinely smoothed a lot of that delta on a go-forward basis?

Andrew Murray

I think from that perspective, it's not having a big impact in the half results for sure. We are starting to see that as we've developed as has been the plan is that we are using our hedging to be able to offset, I guess, the volatility that comes through in that space.

It's not something that we are particularly thinking is either a big net positive or net negative for the results going forward. That's what we've been designing it around and so we expect that that will continue.

I don't know, Richard, if you had any more. No,

Richard Allen

I would suggest, Nick, you could say our '26 and '25 sort of contributions, they're pretty similar based into our current forecast. '24 is a little bit lower than that.

You would suggest that that's 3 years now that's getting pretty close to what you've got to think our sort of ongoing average is going to be.

Andrew Murray

Yeah.

Nick Mar

Yeah. No, that's good.

Just that sort of volatility was quite significant prior to all this, good

Andrew Murray

to see. Then

Nick Mar

in terms of the sort of 3-year forward, are you guys able to share any more color on your thinking of the sort of composition of the earnings growth between some of the cost out and sort of I guess revenue or sort of strategic execution items? I guess you've just sort of said that the ERP won't fall all the way out, you've got sort of a bit more work to do I guess on another buckets, but if you could provide any color, that'd be helpful.

Andrew Murray

I think as Miles said, obviously we remain comfortable with those as they are. You'll see the even the investment that we announced today as well in further pastry butter sheets.

The execution of the strategy that we've got is what delivers us the upside. We're moving more into Foodservice, which we previously indicated, and we're moving out of more of the commodity ingredients into the advanced ingredients for ingredients.

Advanced ingredients for ingredients, that's good. That becomes obviously that's the core of the plan.

I think last year as well, we did say that the makeup was probably around a 50-50 split between costs and then what would actually be earnings growth. We do have a cost opportunity within the business as we simplify post-divestment, so that is coming through.

We've had actually some decent progress this year. We've got a chunk that'll come through in the back half as well.

I feel comfortable about us taking the cost out where it needs to because we are a leaner organisation, we have less complexity. We'll see that come through.

Then, yeah, we continue to do what we said we're going to do around ingredients and Foodservice. That's the makeup of how it pulls through, and we feel pretty comfortable about it.

Nick Mar

No, that's great. Then lastly just on Mainland, obviously a strong result for the business, and there was some impacts like you called out of inventory revaluation.

Can you provide any color about that and just sort of, I guess, proving that this wasn't sold far too cheaply and that this isn't necessarily the run rate for the business going forward?

Andrew Murray

There is a chunk in there. I think if you look at it, I guess this shows some of the volatility that still is within that business.

You'll see in there of that 71, let's say 50 of it was in that Australian ingredients business where it was actually just seeing the benefit of the commodity cycle change. If you go back maybe even back 18 months, the Australian ingredients was a loss-making space.

We're now in a space where that isn't the case anymore, so that volatility still remains there. I would say, what are we looking at?

Year-on-year improvement of around about $20 million, maybe let's call that, in terms of underlying performance in the Consumer business actually, not the Foodservice part, but the Consumer business where they've held on to some decent margins and also had the impact again of as our Foodservice business had of slightly lower input costs. That's how that's played out.

It's that same sort of cycle that you would have seen in the Consumer business, but it's played well. From our perspective, we're still talking about a 9% return on capital.

Look at it from and that's based on our capital invested, not what we actually got for it in terms of the pricing. I look at it and I'm like, is there anything to make us think that we've made the wrong call?

Absolutely not.

Nick Mar

That's great. Thank you.

All right.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time.

I'll now hand back to Mr. Hurrell for closing remarks.

Miles Hurrell

Great. Thank you very much for joining us this morning.

Of course, the team are available for any further follow-up questions that you may have, but again, thanks for those comments that were also made about my tenure. This is my last results that I'll be fronting, and so appreciate all your support along the way also.

Thank you very much, everybody.