Welcome to presentation of the third quarter 2026 results for Protector. We'll start as always with who we are and a short summary of what we did this morning.

We've had all employees on one topic, obviously the results, but one topic when it comes to our culture. As it has been for some time, the focus is on the challenger.

What we have done is that we've worked on setting our vision for 2030. I won't get into all of the details there with you, but that vision has a requirement of change.

The reason for the requirement is twofold. One is that Protector is changing.

We're growing, a lot more people, more countries, and more years, more experience that we need to challenge. It's harder to challenge ourselves than to challenge everyone else.

The other element is that the world around us is changing. In particular, technology.

Those two things are actually giving us an opportunity to reduce the biggest risk in Protector. The biggest risk in Protector is that we become like everyone else.

As long as we get to change, as long as we have means to make changes in order to create more value, we are reducing that risk. One mitigation has been and is to establish in new countries.

That gives all employees an opportunity to be part of something else. We don't want the best people to butt their heads in within areas where they don't get anywhere, where they don't get development.

When we open new opportunities, the best people can contribute, either on those new opportunities or other people in existing areas will move to the new opportunities and then something opens up. This change that is happening within Protector and outside of Protector is an opportunity to make further change, another action to reduce that risk.

What we are doing is that we, for all employees, first all leaders, all employees, we are setting performance targets, high ambitions on business value targets. We call them business commitments.

That profitable growth is obviously a target for everyone in Protector. That's what we're paid to deliver.

If when we measure an additional performance, when we measure who should have performance pay in Protector, then that is linked to something that has an even higher ambition. What we will then do is, I'll give you a couple of examples.

Say to one broker in one country that has £200 million in volume, we will say that by 2030, we want to see £300 million from that broker, more than the broker has within that segment. That doesn't only require that we see everything that the broker has.

It also requires us to help the broker get more within that segment. It's an ambition that requires us to change, because that will not happen if we do things the same way.

We need to choose, it means we need to select that broker we think is able to actually do something different. Then we need to get together as a team.

Today, it's mostly underwriters and key account managers, broker service, who are out with the brokers. We need claims handling.

We need IT. We need compliance.

We need reporting. We need the whole team, risk managers, to go out to the brokers in order to increase their portfolio and make sure that we see all of that business, because it needs to have the right data quality.

Today, a lot of what we don't quote is because it doesn't have data quality. This is possible to set ambitions where we have to change, it's possible because of technology.

We see it today that we have several areas where we have already deployed technology that changes the way we do things. It's difficult to change, especially when what we've done previously has produced very strong results.

It's not necessarily our stars from history who are the best at challenging our existing processes. I've mentioned that before.

This is one way of doing that. That's type of ambitions and targets that we're setting.

We're taking some risk in prioritizing some areas where we set high ambitions. There's a lot of energy, and it is very much related to staying the challenger, being bold, and being committed to being that company that is always developing, always improving.

That's what we are talking about at the moment. We will have our targets for 2027 set a lot earlier than what we usually do in this process.

Then we will focus on working on how to achieve them. Now we will speak about history.

The results for quarter three are strong in total. I'll obviously get back to profitability and growth and investment side and capital later on, but just to put some words on the other highlights here.

As we have broker satisfaction surveys in all countries annually. UK was conducted a while back.

We haven't communicated the result there in writing, so that's old news, but we were number one on claims handling and in total in the UK. Lots of interesting feedback that makes us understand where we can improve further in the UK broker market.

As you see, Norway number two. We have a target of being quality leader.

When we're number two, it hurts. That's not quality leader.

The brokers in Norway, they have said that there is a company that is better than us in the deliveries. That is due to some deterioration in response times.

That's important to the brokers. It is some feedback on that we are a bit too square, a bit not flexible enough.

We have increased prices quite a lot on several areas, in particular on the health product, which has been a very poor profitability. Then we have also started challenging the brokers on their value chain.

We are seeing the brokers as an integrated part of our value chain, we are starting to challenge the brokers in particular delivering very good data to us. If not, we don't quote.

We need good quality data. Also that we don't do too much double work.

We're challenging them on use of technology on top of that. There are some areas that we have delivered poorer on, and we get that feedback.

Then there are some conscious activities that we've done, which we probably could have done better, because we're getting this feedback. The totality is a good opportunity to have further discussions with the Norwegian brokers in order to improve that position.

In some ways, I said it hurts, and it hurts. It really hurts for the whole Norwegian business unit as well.

In some ways, it is a bit of an advantage to be hit, because I think that sometimes we can lean back and see that we're good, and good is the enemy of great. It's not to talk number two away, but we are very motivated to change that.

We have in Norway gotten feedback on claims handling as well, and we're number one on claims handling. We have very good feedback on the claims handling, but also there, lots of room for improvement.

As claims handling is the product we sell. That's what the clients buy.

Denmark number one, we continue to be number one in Denmark. Good feedback there, and it is both on claims handling and in total.

That's a good result, but I don't think the actions are any different from what they are in Norway. It's just more important to focus on that let's not only celebrate number one position, but understand what we can improve and really dig into what the brokers mean when they give us feedback, because there are lots to improve there as well.

We placed a Tier 1 bond, and then the dividend is written here, I'll go straight into the volume. I think that quarter three 2026 is a good example of what we say every single quarter.

Quarterly volatility must be expected. It's not only on the profitability side.

It's also on the growth side. Because when I get into this, and I'm being reminded me that please ask questions during the presentation, that makes it a bit more dynamic.

That goes for everyone in the room, but also online. When I get into this, you'll understand what because, first of all, we've mentioned the UK client.

That is a very large client, like we said, and affects a small volume quarter like quarter three by a lot. If you take away that client, the total growth in local currencies is 20% for Protector.

In UK, the growth is 18% without that client. We'd say there are very strong numbers excluding that client.

Those numbers don't tell the full story either. It's much better to look at year-to-date figures to understand what is actually going on on the growth side.

If I say some words in quarter three, again, back to that, on UK. The market is still soft and softening.

It is difficult to renew our commercial clients in particular at profitable levels. On motor, we have high churn in commercial sector, UK.

Property, we don't have a lot of churn. We managed to retain the clients there, commercial sector.

Then public sector and housing, we managed to have low churn and get price increases where we need it. It's public sector that drives the 18% growth through renewal rate.

The new sale figures in the UK are, except for the very large client, fairly low. That's due to the market.

We're quoting a lot of business. It's a soft market, and we're not winning as much as we have done before.

At some point, that will most likely change. We're obviously looking ourselves in the mirror to see if we're doing something wrong, but it probably will change.

Then, on the other countries, there are some volatility in those growth figures as well, where, in Norway, we have a very high renewal rate. We also have good new sales.

In Norway, everything comes in at the same time and a bit more than what the running rate is. Then in Sweden, we're picking up again on the new sales side.

It's coming back on the new sales in Sweden, but we still have a fairly high churn because we are increasing prices in Sweden as well where needed. In my opinion, the Swedish portfolio is improving profitability-wise, and we are now seeing that we actually are competitive again on, especially motor, but also on the property side, which we don't have a lot of in Sweden.

In Denmark, it's very very small numbers. France is worth giving a comment on, even though there are very small numbers there.

We see that public sector last year, same quarter, we had some clients in public sector. This year, there hasn't been anything to quote.

This is commercial. On commercial, we have strong renewal rates.

It's early, of course, but we retain the right clients, and we also win some smaller clients in France. When you look at the running rate, and France is obviously early and special, look at year-to-date rather than the quarter three figures.

Any questions to volume?

Yeah. Simon Brun, ABG Sundal Collier.

Yeah.

Do I need a mic, or should I go without?

We have a mic.

This one?

Yep. Simon Brun, ABG Sundal Collier.

Just two questions on volumes. The first, and I appreciate the comments on sort of new sales versus price hikes, but is there any way to decompose those 18% in what is sort of price-driven and what is volume-driven?

The second question is on the visibility in the UK going into 2027. You talked about last well, maybe not this summer, but in April that you saw sort of more limited tenders out there.

There was less volumes for you to sort of quote on. Some customers chose to use an option to sort of roll the contracts for another year.

Can you elaborate somewhat or help us understand sort of the dynamics into 2027 in the UK in particular?

Yeah. I can do the first question first, the decomposing of the renewal rate.

I can also say that this renewal rate in local currencies is higher than 89%. There's a lot has happened on the currency, and it's not only the currency of the volume in the quarter, but it's also the starting point that changes with the currency changes.

The renewal rate is closer to 95% in local currencies. The difference there between prices and retention is that or the composition of those is that we get inflation on average for all clients in all segments, and then we get some price increases on the clients that need it, but that's much smaller than inflation.

It's lower numbers than what you've seen previously when we had a need of more profitability actions. That's the approximate figure on you can figure out what that is yourself on the price increases.

Then the churn is, as I said, we have very little churn in UK, very little in Norway, and then we have churn of slightly above 15% in Sweden and similar in Denmark. France is also very close to 100%, or no churn.

The question you asked is not for the UK market in total. That's public sector that the comment came from.

That's the public sector. There's also been one change in so I mentioned the local government reform that was planned in the UK that made the local authorities wait with marketing their insurance programs, because they were waiting to be merged with other local authorities.

That is now canceled, postponed, or happened to one or two local authorities, and then they gave up. That's not happening.

Next year, we will see slightly more, but I think that 1st of April 2028, we will see quite a lot of volume out, and then it will be a lot of our clients, but also new opportunities then, because our market share in the local and we're speaking local authorities, not housing so much on this, market share there is probably around 30% depending on exactly how you define that market. We will see some of that.

The good thing there in that sector is that we have had time to prepare, we have renewed many of these clients on new long-term agreements. Not all of them will come out in 2028.

It will be more along the lines that I have mentioned previously.

Thank you.

Herman Zahl from Pareto Securities. Two questions on the UK.

Could you say something about your expectations in Q4 on the commercial real estate segment? Do you expect any meaningful contributions there?

Secondly, just understand how the different segments in UK varies. Can you say something about your current hit rates in commercial motor, for instance, versus public housing?

Is it like 10% in motor UK? Can you say something about that?

On the real estate side, I've said previously that we expected to really start quoting in quarter four this year, and we have some volume. We've won some clients in real estate, but not any significant volume.

We are starting to see more volume now, and quarter four will be a quarter when we quote significantly more. Whether we will win a lot of that is a different question, because the market there also seems to be soft.

Let's see. We will at least be able to collect a lot of data and learn that segment, get closer to the brokers.

At some point, that will also turn around. That is, based on the data we have, no doubt, because there you have low deductibles and lots of escape of water claims.

It needs to turn around at some point. Let's see.

We'll win some business. We'll quote quite a lot.

When it comes to hit ratios, motor commercial, as an example, in quarter three, we have, yeah, approximately 10% hit ratio on what we quote. We also don't quote everything, because especially some of the larger normal fleets, they are priced at too low levels, and we know that before we start.

Hi, Thomas Svendsen from SEB. Back to the UK and the commercial segment, where difficult to get, you said, business at profitable level.

What combined ratios are we talking about that you don't accept, just to get a feeling with the softness in the market?

Combined ratios above 100% with our cost ratio.

Okay. Thank you.

That's history. We have also talked about that we are working on new markets, and we are still working on new markets.

The very good news is that, as I mentioned last time, Spain is ahead of the other countries due to obvious reasons. We started there before.

We know the brokers. We have had already understood some of the market there.

We now have actual data, good data, in Spain for commercial motor. That looks very good.

The two broker houses we are working closely with now, they have real clients that we have seen and that they want us to be competing on, and we expect that during 2027, we will be quoting Spanish business. Then Germany has always looked or we've had no on the data side from Germany.

Coming into Germany now, speaking with the brokers there, we are already seeing data on motor and real estate and even public sector. Public sector is dominated by the incumbents and the mutual companies, the brokers don't have a very large position in public sector.

The brokers are very strong in commercial sector and real estate, where we are getting data. Then we are speaking with some Polish brokers, public sector only for the time being, and it looks promising with data there as well.

We haven't started Italy yet, but we are still looking into the US, where we have data. That's public sector, excess type of business.

When and what that will be is not very important. It sounds very big because it's US, but the type of business is very related to parts of commercial sector in the UK, property, and parts of the real estate sector.

It's more excess of loss type of business, but with the data we have and with the understanding we have of that type of underwriting, we see that we can have some competitive advantages there as well. It's very exciting to work on new markets, and we are having progress, but we will be disciplined in what we do and wait until we have data before we quote anything.

Then to the profitability, again, a very good example of volatility between quarters, because obviously, many of you will have heard me say that UK is softening, will normalize on the loss ratio side, and now all of a sudden, you get a jump from last quarter. Now it normalized in one quarter.

No, it didn't. It's much more relevant to look at the year-to-date figures there as well.

The quarter three figures are influenced by large loss, one very large loss in UK in quarter three on the property side, and run-off. That's what drives the big change, and the underlying realities have not changed that much.

The underlying realities have never been what they were quarter three 2025 either. Then we said you need to adjust that upwards, because there were no large losses then.

The underlying realities are more similar between 2025 and 2026, but with some deterioration, which is natural when rates go gradually down. It takes time before rates go down.

Not all clients go out. We manage to keep clients.

Our churn rate is closer to 10% than more than that, and then you can calculate how many years we have these clients on average. We get to correct profitability on the ones that are unprofitable along the way.

It will happen gradually. That's the UK example here, and the same with Norway.

Norway is not turned from 79% to 58%, all of a sudden, Norway is that much better. That's also no large losses in quarter three for Norway and 8% run-off gains.

Adjust for that, and you still have a very strong profitability or loss ratio in Norway. It's improving, especially motor is improving, but actually all products improving in Norway.

We have done measures for some time when we've had problems in Norway. It takes some time before you get the result.

Now you get little bit of a catch-up effect with some volatility on top of that, but it is improving also underlying. As you can see, if you adjust and normalize that.

Sweden is fairly stable, even though the figures don't show that, underlying profitability. Denmark is actually very very similar as well when you normalize.

On the French side, we've had some large losses, it's slightly better in France, but still it's very early. With some long-tail products, motor is our biggest product in France, and motor third-party liability has personal injury claims, that has a long tail, that takes time before we know what that is.

It's not that we've had many of those losses, but we could get, and some of those losses can be larger personal, and that's something we reserve for, obviously. There is a lot of uncertainty in the French figures.

The underwriting view, meaning the view that we see client by client when we do renewals, when we look at our portfolio and we say each client is now going to renew with either an inflationary increase or because everything's okay or a price increase because it is unprofitable, is very similar to the view we had when we did the underwriting. Which is a good thing, because it doesn't look like it's anything different, the data looks good, and it seems like we have done basically the right thing, at least in total.

Then everyone has read about France. We have some public sector clients, and you've read about riots in France.

That was also the case when we entered the French market, which was one of the reasons why we were welcomed in public sector France at that time, and we got data from those brokers, because they didn't have a lot of competitors. Everyone was scared about riots.

When we entered, it was possible to impose cover reductions and high deductibles on riot events, and we have that on all our clients. We have a very small exposure per client, and we don't really have that many clients.

We don't have that many clients in the cities. The exposure is not very large.

We haven't had any claims from the recent riots in France.

Two questions, one on Norway and then one on the UK. On Norway, looking at the underlying figures, I appreciate that it has been seemingly a very benign quarter for most insurers, and that sort of the underlying claims ratio is to some extent benefiting from some stochastic variations.

Is it also fair to assume that you have successfully repriced sort of a group of underperforming customers, and that is also playing into better underwriting and underlying improvements, and that we should expect that to continue also benefiting for the coming quarters? Then secondly, on the UK, and I appreciate sort of the 1% change year-to-date on the loss ratio, but on the underlying loss ratio, it's more 4 percentage points up on the underlying combined ratio year-to-date.

Is that reflecting the softer market, and how should we think of '27? Will we see a similar deterioration, or is this level sort of where you expect it to flatten out?

For the Norwegian business, I think I wouldn't look at quarter three to calculate your expectations for the coming quarters. Yes, we have successfully increased prices on underperforming clients during 2026, and especially on the large 1st of January date, so that's a while back.

We don't see the effect before now, or the year-to-date figures more than quarter one and quarter two, where it was poor. Then there's still work to do in Norway to improve profitability on certain parts of the motor market.

There could be more to come. I think that the seasonality is obviously one thing.

Yes, we have quarter three last year as well, I know, but seasonality when the volatility is then larger also with seasonality. That's part of it.

Then you have group life is a decent-sized product in Norway. There's a lot of volatility in group life when people die, and how many die, that's volatile in a fairly small portfolio, but still significant.

When it comes to UK, I think that the deterioration is slightly less than the 4% normalized. The reason is that there are some medium-sized losses, especially on motor, that gives some volatility on that.

Motor looks better than what it's reported at. Frequency is actually going down in our portfolio, and we're managing to get price increases on some of the larger clients.

Then on the property side, there is not a lot of effect from the price decreases yet, and we will continue to see some effects of those through 2027. The estimate I would give you is that we underwrite for a combined ratio below 91%.

That's how we do it. That should be over time.

Over time, but it will take longer than 2027, UK should be going towards 91%.

Thank you.

Then we will go fairly quickly through the rest. The historical figures on run-off, you know that there has been some run-off here.

I've previously also mentioned that in times with uncertain inflation and changing circumstances, then uncertainty can give an effect of some run-off gains, conservatism. That's what you're seeing here.

The large losses are in this period lower than the 8% that we communicate, but it is volatile, and you will see that at some point. The only thing we haven't talked about is the cost side, which is adjusted for the long-term bonus plan and the share price effect on that, very similar.

You see if you exclude commissions here, it looks lower in quarter three and also year-to-date, but it is very stable, the cost ratio. We do expect that investments we have done and that we are doing will lead to us being able to approach new markets and enter new markets with very little extra growth in FTEs, and the same with new segments such as real estate and other segments that we approach, especially in the UK market, but also in Scandinavian markets, where we're really working on the facilities with brokers.

That's also an investment that hasn't given us a lot of volume yet, but that we've spent some time on. Questions here?

No, we'll move over to investments. I think the largest takeaway here is that there's a lot has happened on the interest rate side, the running yield is from 5.2% to 5.7%.

That's the biggest point. That's a lot of money when you see what the denominator is.

That's the largest change. You also see that we steer interest rate risk from a solvency perspective towards our liabilities.

When the interest rate goes up, we have a loss here on the swaps that we use that is then countered on the insurance side. It's basically on the P&L, you don't see any movement there.

There's a small loss, I think, but on the solvency side, there is a gain. That gain comes from that we are not steering interest rates 100% against liabilities in markets France and is it UK?

Sweden,

with interest rates below 3%. Then we're not 100% matched there, and then you get a small gain on the solvency side.

You see some of those effects in profit and loss here. When it comes to capital, there is one small temporary element here, 6% from that we have two or we have a double the Tier 1 since we issued the one we have, and the other one is to be or planned to be paid back in December, so that's just temporary, 6 percentage points there.

Other than that, it's the requirement increases from a larger investment portfolio. The capital increases from the earnings, minus the dividend, and other than that, very small movements there.

Obviously, we are in a very solid position here. As you have heard, and as I have said, both the uncertainties in the world and in general, but more the opportunities going forward, in particular on the insurance side, is a good reason for seeing over time how we allocate our capital.

We're obviously very solid at the moment and have a lot of excess capital after stress that we can use if the opportunities arise. Then back to the summary.

Any more questions?

If you look...

Can you take that microphone?

If you look long term... We have a webcast as well, they need it.

Okay. If you look long term, at least 2 to 5 years, what are the two things you see as the most threats, and what are the two things you see as the biggest opportunities?

Very very many times I think that the threats become opportunities, they may be the same ones. The one I've mentioned before, the by far biggest threat to Protector, I think, and I'm pretty sure that I have most people in Protector with me on that, is that we become like everyone else.

At the moment, there are signs that we generate silos, that we don't work as one team, that we are not the challenger anymore in established markets. There are symptoms of that.

We work on breaking that down all the time. That's the biggest threat.

The reason why it's the biggest threat is, and the biggest risk, is that all the best people in Protector, they work in Protector because they like being the challenger. They like performance.

They like to always improve and do something new and be different. We'll lose those people if we are not that.

I don't want to work in Protector if that happens. We need opportunities to develop.

We can't just develop to develop. We need to develop and create value, it needs to be a value creation.

Therefore, it's a risk and an opportunity. I think it's our edge.

I think it's the reason why we are very comfortable with our cost position. Cost is extremely important, will be in the future.

We need to be cost leader, by far. We're comfortable with the position we have now, because we know that we can go a lot leaner with the business we have today, but we are spending resources on developing new opportunities at the moment, meaning that we can consume those new opportunities with a similar workforce.

That's number one. Number two is probably so far down the list that we have a long list of elements.

Obviously, in number one, there's a lot of elements, like technology is in there. If I were to list one, I think that technology is a threat.

We think about, will there be someone who can come in and kill Protector with a completely new model? Because we need to be productively paranoid.

We think about things like the brokers, will they disappear? We only sell insurance through brokers.

We need to think about that, and we shouldn't spend too much time arguing against or arguing why that will not happen. We should rather say, what should we do in order to reduce that risk?

When it comes to technology, we are, in many ways, developing many small companies that can compete with Protector. That's what I talked about in the beginning.

Let's do it in a different way. Let's see if Jonas in Denmark, who has his North Star, which is doing all the underwriting that his team on motor underwriting does in 1 year with one person in 1 week.

He can basically do that. It's possible to do that today.

We have quoted local authorities that we have a very structured process for. We evaluate 400 factors every time manually or with at least people using models.

We've quoted now the first three municipalities in Norway without any people being part of it. We did the underwriting at the same time in a normal way to check.

The interesting thing is that when we see differences, and there are not too many differences, when we see differences, then it's actually much easier to explain why the model has the answer it has than why the human has the answer it has. Then it's based on some feelings and some experience or something that is not data.

The model is only data. I think technology is a threat, but it's more a threat in terms of citizen development.

We have lots of IT developers now. Previously, we had 70 IT developers.

Now we have 250, 300 IT developers in Protector, because underwriters especially, not so much claims handlers, but underwriters especially, they develop functionality. They code.

That is a risk in terms of data. We need to do the impossible of making data available, all the data we have, at the same time keeping it secure.

The same thing with new functionality. We need to encourage development and innovation at the same time as we have control of it, that we know that it's documented and not dependent on that person.

I could speak about this for a very long time, but that's two risks that are also, I think, our biggest opportunities. Any more questions?

Thank you. Herman Zahl from Pareto Securities.

I think last year you gave us a figure on how much you expected to quote in the French market. Do you have a similar figure for us now?

No.

Okay. Thank you.

It will be slightly higher than last year. It's uncertain, that's why I don't want to say too much.

Thank you, everyone.