Qatar National Bank QPSC

Qatar National Bank QPSC

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptJanuary 19, 2026

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Good afternoon, everyone. This is Elena Sanchez, and on behalf of EFG Hermes, I would like to welcome you all to QNB Group's Q4 2025 results call.

We have with us from QNB Mr. Ramzi Mari, Group Chief Financial Officer, Ms.

Noor Alnaimi, Senior Executive Vice President, Group Treasury, and Mr. Mark Abrahams, Executive Vice President, Group Treasury Trading.

I would like to hand over the call now to Mr. Mark Abrahams.

Please go ahead.

Mark Abrahams

Thank you very much, Elena and the EFG Hermes team for hosting our call today. Before we begin the call, it is customary to remind everyone that this call is for investors and analysts only, and media should please disconnect now.

I will begin by giving a brief overview of the global and regional macroeconomic backdrop. We will then present the financial results.

Finally, we will open the floor to questions and answers. Despite the significant volatility on the back of U.S.

policy uncertainties, the global economy proved to be more resilient than originally expected in 2025. Growth remained stable at around 3.3%.

Central banks in advanced economies have front-loaded a significant amount of monetary easing. More easing is expected in the U.S.

if policy rates are taken to a more neutral or accommodative level over the coming quarters. The GCC countries continue to benefit from trade and investment flows that have been promoted by favorable and credible policy reforms and frameworks.

Non-oil GDP growth in the GCC remains robust, mainly based on population growth, a large pipeline of capex projects, energy infrastructure expansion, and FDI inflows. Also for Qatar, the macroeconomic environment remains positive.

With total exports of U.S. dollars 117 billion and central government revenues of U.S.

dollars 57 billion over the last four quarters, Qatar benefits from a strong fiscal and current account position. Domestic activity has gained further momentum, with an expansion of 3.9% in GDP and 5.3% of non-hydrocarbon GDP over the last four quarters.

This was driven by sectors such as wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food services, as well as financial services. Importantly, Qatar continues to lay the foundations for an uplift in GDP growth over the medium and long term through new projects.

On the hydrocarbon front, tailwinds from investment in increasing gas production will drive economic growth, with eight new LNG trains planned under the North Field expansion project, one of the largest capital expenditure projects in the region and industrial engineering projects in the world. These investments, to be executed in three phases, are expected to increase Qatar's energy production by 85% to 142 million tons per annum by 2030.

The first production will come on stream by mid-2026. Qatar is also ramping up efforts to diversify its non-hydrocarbon economy and increase private sector engagement.

The country aims to further consolidate its position as a regional and international hub for business, investment, commerce, tourism and culture. The execution of Qatar National Vision 2030 has been front-loaded in the preparation for mega events and assisted in the ongoing transition of the country towards a knowledge-based economy.

The North Field expansion project will also include an equivalent manufacturing-related expansion of Qatar's refining, downstream and petrochemical capacity. Key highlights include a range of midstream and downstream projects, including pipelines, LNG storage tanks, LNG tankers, berths, plants for LPG, helium, ethane cracker, blue ammonia and urea.

Positive spillovers from these projects will combine with diversification efforts and structural reforms to boost economic activity and spending in the broader manufacturing and services sectors. Other large projects in the pipeline include a Q22 billion new five-year pipeline of infrastructure projects, particularly advanced sewage systems and sustainable water management solutions.

GDP growth is expected to accelerate in the coming years, projected at 5.2% in 2026 and 7.9% in 2027. As a result, the economic expansion continues in Qatar, while the banking sector is resilient and healthy.

According to the latest available data from Qatar Central Bank, total assets of the local banking sector were up 5.8% in 2025. Banks remained well capitalized with a capital adequacy ratio of 19.6%, well above Basel III guidelines.

Asset quality also remains strong. Overall sector profitability was solid with ROE at 14.5%.

I will now move on to QNB's financial results for the 12 months ended 31st December 2025. Key financial results are as follows: net profit was 17 billion Qatari riyals, or 4.7 billion U.S.

dollars, growth of 2% compared to last year. The growth in net profit was partially impacted due to global minimum taxes effective in 2025 for the first time.

Excluding the impact of these taxes on a like-for-like basis, net profit is up 10%. Robust revenue growth resulted in an increase in operating income to 44.8 billion Qatari riyals, or 12.3 billion U.S.

dollars, up 8%, demonstrating QNB Group's success in maintaining growth across the full range of revenue sources. QNB's cost-to-income ratio remains strong at 23.3%, which is one of the best ratios among large financial institutions in the Middle East and Africa region.

Total assets are at 1.39 trillion Qatari riyals, or 382 billion U.S. dollars, up by 7% from the same period last year.

Loans and advances reached 1.02 trillion Qatari riyals, or 280 billion U.S. dollars, up by 12%.

QNB Group remains successful in attracting deposits, which resulted in an increase in customer funding by 8% from December 2024 to reach 955 billion Qatari riyals, or 262 billion U.S. dollars.

The group's regulatory loan-to-deposit ratio remains stable at 98.6%. QNB Group's ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans is at 2.6%, reflecting the high quality of the group's loan book and the effective management of credit risk.

In addition, the coverage ratio on stage three loans remains at 100%. Total equity increased to 125 billion Qatari riyals, up by 10% from December 2024.

The bank's capital adequacy ratio at 19.3% is comfortably higher than both QCB and the latest Basel III reform requirements. In relation to the QNB buyback program, QNB has completed buyback of 123.1 million shares at a cost of 2.1 billion Qatari riyals up to December 31st, 2025.

The buyback execution is in progress. The board of directors of QNB Group have recommended to the General Assembly the distribution of a cash dividend of 37.5% of the nominal share value, 0.375 Qatari riyals per share, for the second half of the year ended 31st December 2025.

The total dividend distribution for the year ended 31st December 2025 amounts to 72.5% of the nominal share value, 0.725 Qatari riyals per share. The annual financial results for 2025, along with the proposed profit distribution, remain subject to Qatar Central Bank and the General Assembly approval.

We will now turn to Q&A. Thank you.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you very much, Mark. We will now move to the Q&A.

If you have a question, you can write it in the Q&A chat, or you can also click on the raise hand button and I will unmute your microphone. We will take the first question from Chiro Ghosh.

Please go ahead.

Chiro Ghosh

Hi, this is Chiro Ghosh from SICO Bahrain. A couple of questions from my side.

First is, I see that Egyptian operation and Turkish operation, at prima facie with whatever information is available, it appears to be quite strong. If you can give some outlook or some color from your side, primarily from the margin side and asset quality side of these two, and any other guidance which you can give for the rest of the year at the group level.

These are my two questions.

Durraiz Khan

Yes. Hi, Chiro, this is Durraiz.

In terms of the performance of both Egyptian and Turkish operations, the performance has significantly been impacted by lower interest rates in both of these markets, more so in Turkey compared to Egypt, because both of them are currently in the easing cycle, which is helping in improving NIMs, which is resulting in overall the top line is flowing through the bottom line, and this is the reason why they are appearing slightly better. Looking at the guidance for the next year, from a profitability perspective, we are looking at for the group perspective, growth of 6 to 8%.

From a loans perspective and deposits perspective, we are looking at a growth of 7 to 9%. From a NIM perspective, we expect our NIM would be between 262 to 265 basis points for the full year.

Cost of risk would be between 80 to 85 basis points for the full year. For QNB Turkey operations, and just to make sure we are clear, when we say Turkey operations, it is combined operations of both QNB Bank in Turkey and in Finansbank.

We expect the loans to grow by 22 to 25% in local currency, deposits to grow by 30 to 35%, the assets to grow by 22 to 25%, and the profitability to improve by 70 to 90% in local currency terms. In terms of QNB Egypt, we expect in local currency terms extremely robust loan growth at about 55 to 57%, deposit growth of 6 to 8%, asset growth of 8 to 12%, and profitability of 12 to 13%.

These are the outlook and guidance for the year 2026 for the full year.

Chiro Ghosh

I had one question on the margin. My back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests the margin at Qatar level might have been a little weak.

Can you give some color on that, or am I right to start with?

Durraiz Khan

See, as you said, there were two rate declines which happened in, which impacted us in the fourth quarter and the third quarter. Whenever, though we say that we are not impacted by the margin significantly, but there are timing issues which impact us.

Liabilities reprice, assets reprice, liabilities reprice based on repricing dates or maturity dates. That is what will drive why the margin would be slightly lower than what we have ended up in this year.

This year we ended at 267 basis points. For next year, we expect slight contraction, and we'll end up between 260 to 265 basis points.

Chiro Ghosh

Just a sensitivity for every 25 basis points, what are you factoring in?

Durraiz Khan

For about full 100 basis points decline, we expect 600 to 800 million decline in net interest income.

Chiro Ghosh

That's all from my side. Thank you very much.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. We'll take the next question from Jon Pease.

Please go ahead.

Jon Pearce

hi. Thank you for taking the question.

The first one, please, is just a follow-up on Turkey and Egypt. Thank you for that guidance.

For Turkey, can I just confirm, did you say 70 to 90% rise in profit in local terms for 26? Then if we think of these businesses two to three years out, after hopefully hyperinflation has dropped away in Turkey, what sort of return on equity do you think you'll be able to generate in these businesses?

I'm just trying to think of where to land the longer-term numbers in my model. Then second question, please, on the buyback.

Do you think you'll finish it in the first quarter or in the first half of 2026? I just wondered how you're thinking about the pace of the buyback, why you didn't decide to execute it a little bit more quickly, given you've got plenty of capital, and is there any prospect for a second buyback when it's completed?

Thank you.

Durraiz Khan

Yes, in relation to your first question on the return on equity for these businesses, QNB Egypt already has a very robust return on equity of above 25%, and we expect it to remain in the similar range, above 25%, depending on how the market environment in Egypt turns out to be. It is extremely well franchised and positive macro will ensure that we remain positive and may increase.

In terms of return on equity of QNB Turkey, as you have rightly pointed out, high inflation has significantly impacted the return on equity. It is less than 10% now, primarily because of significant hyperinflation loss that we did.

As and when hyperinflation loss goes away, we expect significant improvement in the return on equity of this business as well. We would like to be above the high teens in the 20% range.

In relation to your second question on buyback, the pace of buyback is basically we are very comfortable with the price that is and it has been supported by the market very strongly. The pace of buyback has reduced.

The program that we are currently executing expires in March, but we will be applying for an extension, which is allowed under the current rules, so that we can take more time to complete this current program under extension. We'll be applying for an extension from end of quarter.

Jon Pearce

Thank you. Then any thoughts of whether you would do a second buyback when it's completed?

Durraiz Khan

At this time, I would rather focus on finishing this program. Once we come close to finishing this program, we will take a decision at that time.

Jon Pearce

Great. Thank you.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. We will take the next question from Olga Veselova.

Please go ahead.

Olga Veselova

Good day, and thank you for taking my questions. I have three questions.

One is on provisioning. Fourth quarter results show us that additional profit in the group you channelled into additional provisions, which we saw historically sometimes were happening.

How do you think about this going forward now? Coverage is really high, provision coverage is really high, and NPLs are at the bottom since 2022.

Is there a level of NPLs or provision coverage where you think you should stop this pattern? Channelling extra profit into extra provisions, or maybe do it to a less extent.

That's question number one. My question number two is on net interest margin outlook.

It almost, looking at your full year 2026 margin guidance, I feel you expect that the recovery in Turkey will be more than offset by erosion in Qatar. I was thinking, why is that the case?

You have such a low cost ratio. Your sensitivity is not very high.

Which other margin factors do you have in Qatar other than policy rate cuts? My third question is, long term, which level of foreign assets and profit, foreign profit, do you want to see in QNB Group in the next, let's say, three, four years?

Thank you.

Durraiz Khan

On this, I will take my answer the first question on provisioning, LLR provisioning and NPL and coverage. From a coverage perspective, we have always said that we want to be as close to 100% as possible, and that is something that we have consistently delivered.

NPLs are still there are flow and how do we manage it. As I have said it multiple times, as long as pre-provisioning income is very, very strong and we are meeting our targets that we have set for ourselves for the following year, we become quite conservative in provisioning to make sure that we are building reserves for future risks.

The factor remains that if in future, in 2026, if because interest rates are cutting and we expect the pre-provision earnings will not be probably as strong as it is there in this year, we expect the cost of risk to come slightly down. We expect it to be between 80 to 90 basis points.

That is what is driving our coverage and provisioning decisions. In terms of the second half of for NIM, see, as you rightly pointed out, Turkey particularly and Egypt will benefit, but there are a lot of uncertainties on the U.S.

policy front in terms of interest rates. Yes, the interest rate declines, but maybe the interest rate decline will be much more aggressive than what the market is expecting.

We are giving that some cushion for that particular aspect. At this time, we are saying that we are not expecting a very significant decline in margin.

We are marginally from 267 basis points, and we give you on the range, which is basically reduced by the high end of the range is reduced by two basis points. It's not something that we are saying a lot.

It's going to change. We're just giving us some room for any policy changes which might come down the line as the year moves along.

In terms of your third question, could you please repeat that?

Olga Veselova

Yes. Which level of foreign assets and foreign profit in total QNB Group assets and profit do you target or do you expect in three, four years?

Durraiz Khan

See, in terms of our previous targets about we expect that 40 to 50 percent would be our foreign assets, and we want to be in the above range above 40 percent international contribution to the businesses and profitability to be about 45 percent.

Olga Veselova

Thank you. I was squeezing one more.

When you guide P&L growth for this year, is this after hyperinflation adjustment or before?

Durraiz Khan

Everything, after taxes, hyperinflation, everything.

Olga Veselova

Thank you.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. We will take the next question from Murad Ansari.

Please go ahead.

Murad Ansari

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for the presentation.

Just two quick questions on loan growth. One was I think fourth quarter has come in stronger than what you had initially guided.

Loan growth numbers are quite strong. I just wanted to get a sense of what was the key area of surprise here in terms of loan growth for the fourth quarter?

In terms of 2026, within Qatar, where do you see the key drivers of growth in terms of sectors, if you can give an area-specific view on that? Thank you.

Durraiz Khan

See, Murad, as a corporate bank, sometimes there are things in the pipeline always, and there are things which are executed as per the pipeline and things which are not executed as per the pipeline. Sometimes everything falls into place and you have— there are no elements of surprise in loan growth.

It's just that your assertion whether they would finish by the time is something which is uncertain, and that has time everything fell into place, the loan growth has been very strong. For Qatar for next year, what will the driver for growth?

Again, the derivative or the impact of LNG expansion, not the direct expansion, but what are the follow-on impacts, the infrastructure spend that is related to LNG expansion and other secondary spend relative to expansion is what is driving the loan growth.

Murad Ansari

Thank you.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. We will take the next question from Salome.

Please go ahead.

Salome Skhirtladze

Hope you can hear my voice. Thanks for taking the questions.

I have three questions. The first one on the NIM again.

If we have a case of sticky U.S. rates, or even tightening in 2027, I would like to hear from you what could that mean for not NIM but for overall net interest income.

Do you think the loan growth could be somehow affected by it, or would you be able to see some upside? The second question on the operating costs, just wondering where do you stand in terms of the technology investments, and if you could give us a few numbers to quantify any potential gains from the tech or AI investments across the group.

The third one on the digital banking space, there is quite tightening competition, even in Turkey. At least two big tech names are targeting Turkish market.

In Saudi, there is quite tight competition. If you could give us a high-level overview, what is your strategy, what is the growth trend you're expecting from this market, do you have any specific competitive advantage or business model that you would be able to utilize to capture the market growth in these markets?

Thank you.

Durraiz Khan

In terms of the NIM guidance, if we are talking about sticky rates hypothetically, which we believe is difficult, but of course it will help the NIM. In terms of volumes, not that much.

As we said, we are a corporate bank and the spend or the capex demand primarily is coming from primary sources, which would continue to be as long as rates remain at current levels. In terms of operating spend on technology, we continue to invest in systems.

We are upgrading our systems as we speak. Different systems are going at different phases.

Is there a dollar number as to how much is the cost benefit we are going to get out of it? At this time, no.

It is something that there are teams in the bank which look at everything, which look at all the different systems that need to be upgraded, and that happens as we speak on a regular basis. In terms of competition in digital banking space, our Turkish bank is now as an independent company and over a financials product as well in our investor presentation slide, has an advantage of being the first mover.

Obviously we welcome competition, but at the same time we will continue to invest. We have invested long before when nobody else was investing in this particular space.

We don't want to give—we don't want to basically leave the market for others. We'll continue to invest in the space and make sure that our market share is somewhat protected and we welcome competition.

I think for Saudi Arabia it would be early to say as to what exactly we'll be doing. Our advantage comes from know-how and tech stack that we have built up in Turkey and know-how of the market, similar market that we operate in.

As and when we move closer to launching the Saudi digital bank, I think those questions would be answered at that time as to what strategy we follow.

Salome Skhirtladze

Thank you. Thank you very much.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. We'll take the next question from Dan Mikhaylov.

Please go ahead.

Dan Mikhaylov

Hello, this is Dan from Vergent. Congratulations on the results.

I had two quick questions. I just wanted to follow up on the cost of risk point raised earlier.

It seems that yet in 2025 most of the build-up of provisions has happened at stage 2. I was wondering what explains this and whether or not you're seeing any pressure in stage 2, any potential downgrades, and what level of stage 2 coverage you would be comfortable at.

The second question relates to Turkey. Do you anticipate a tightening of monthly loans growth caps in Turkey, given that the current caps banks, you would likely have real growth in loans in 2026.

Thank you.

Durraiz Khan

In terms of the first question on stage 2, see we cannot increase coverage on stage 3 above 100%. That is when you are trying to improve, when you are trying to be conservative on the cost of risk side, the only avenue that we have available is stage 2.

This is what you see, and this is something this is not for the first time. Historically, whenever it wants to be conservative on the cost of risk side, it tries to be very, very prudent and be very conservative in ECL assumption for stage 2.

In terms of the QNB Turkey, Turkish guidance, see the loan growth that we talk about in local currency is similar to the average inflation rates for the year. It would be more or less in line with, closer to effectively very small real growth, and that is what we are forecasting for next year.

Dan Mikhaylov

Thank you.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. We'll take the next question from Aybek Islamov.

Please go ahead.

Mark Abrahams

I cannot hear you.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Aybek, you need to unmute your microphone. All right, I think we'll move on to Rahul Rajan.

Please go ahead.

Rahul Rajan

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Three questions from my end.

Firstly is on the non-funded income side of things. How do you see that evolving around into 2026?

Given strong GDP growth, do you see a pickup in pace, or how do you see that basically? That's number one.

Number two is on costs, or cost to income ratio. Anything that you can guide on that front, or do you expect cost growth to remain similar at 2025 levels?

Lastly on dividends, given that we are seeing capital generation being strong, buyback pace potentially slowing down, what we are seeing in 4Q and from what you are also saying. Do you see dividend payout ratios to increase into next year?

Thank you.

Durraiz Khan

Now in terms of non-funded income, we expect if we make it down, a lot of this is driven. We expect that also to be more aligned and more in sync with the balance sheet growth.

A cost to income ratio, something we need to keep in mind that we have very, very strong cost control. Nonetheless, we operate in geographies where are still at very high inflation levels.

That is something that has impacted our cost to income ratio in the recent years. This is something that may continue to impact us in 2026 as well marginally.

In terms of dividends, at this time, no. We stick to the policy, payout policy of between 30 to 40% payout ratio that are there.

Nothing to add at this time.

Rahul Rajan

If I can just have a follow-up to that. You mentioned on the fact that you want to be conservative and you're increasing the coverage levels.

When we are talking about very strong GDP growth in 26 and 27, that should also translate into strong asset qualities, right? At what levels, if your stage 3 coverage is capped at 100%, what is the level of stage 2 or the overall NPL coverage that you would be comfortable with?

That should not show the profit should actually translate into, or pre-provisioning profit should actually translate into net profits itself and not channeled into cost of risk. Thank you.

Durraiz Khan

See, now if you unpack the GDP growth, a lot of it significantly is simply a timing effect of all these energy trains coming online. We are not talking about significant expansion at this time of the non-oil GDP.

Yes, headline numbers are extremely strong, but it is simply a function of increase in the capacity of particular trains, which will come online at different times in 2026 and 2027. Taking this and basically saying that it means that overall economy is going to be, everyone is going to be marginally much better because of that, I think it's not a very fair assumption.

We just need to unpack that. As we continue to say, as long as our profitability guidance that we have given, 6 to 8%, we are confident that we'll be meeting those guidance, and we're also giving you guidance on the cost of risk.

We have been very transparent as to how do we run our P&L. As long as those events line up, we will be meeting both the cost of risk as well as the profitability guidance.

Rahul Rajan

Thank you.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. We'll take questions now from Aybek.

Please go ahead.

Aybek Islamov

Yes, I believe you can hear me now?

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Yes, we can.

Aybek Islamov

Am I coming through okay? Thank you very much.

Thank you for the conference call. I think some of my questions may repeat what people already asked, but I think on the margins, right?

I share the view that the outlook is a bit conservative. Can you remind me please, what are the rate assumptions you have in mind for the NIM, especially in Qatar in 2026, in terms of number of rate cuts and so on and so forth?

That's my first question. Secondly, coming to repayments, right?

How big could be the pressure from the loan repayments in 2026? What about, yeah, let's just focus on 2026, but especially from the public sector, right?

That's my second question. Third, I think looking at the QNB share price, relatively kind of performed in line or slightly underperformed the global EM banks, right?

When I compare QNB with global emerging market GEM banks. Where do you think are the areas you can compensate your shareholders, right?

I was hoping to hear stronger net income earnings growth outlook, which would hopefully translate into stronger book value growth. Looks like your net income guidance is quite conservative.

You mentioned the buybacks, right? That's another driver of the shareholder returns.

Obviously there are dividend decisions. We already announced the dividend for 2025, but yeah, can you elaborate on what's your plan to, stock is quite discounted, relative underperformance versus GEM banks.

What are your thoughts about this? Thank you.

Durraiz Khan

Let's take one step at a step. The rate cut assumptions, 25 basis points reduction coming in the first half of the year.

That is what we have currently built in. Second half of the year, we don't have any view at this point.

In terms of repayments, repayments are already factored in when we are giving you the loan growth guidance. As and when the year progresses and we'll be more confident as to how the cash flows that we are seeing in, we'll be better able to get the guidance at that time.

In terms of the third question, see, it's just that for the first quarter, first half of the year, particularly the first quarter, we have to see how the rate cuts flow through our P&L. We have certain assumptions, and we have to be very conservative when we are giving the guidance to the market.

We probably had a very conservative when we have the guidance. That's what we are giving it to you.

If the first quarter works out slightly better than expected than what we have got in, obviously we will update the guidance in line with the market. Our payout ratio is, as we have communicated, despite slack profitability, our dividends have gone up, our continues in progress.

Both of these things are already there, and we have said that. We will also ask for an extension for the buyback, so far share.

Both of these things are continuing. For the first quarter, we would want to see as to how the rate cuts, which have actually already happened, flow through our P&L, what is the impact on it, and then we'll be able to take it forward in the second and the third quarters.

Aybek Islamov

Understood, very clear. You will review your position after first quarter results, right?

First quarter 2026. Can I clarify on Egypt?

One point you spoke about your guidance. Thank you very much for that.

Did I hear you correctly? Deposit growth expected to be at 6 to 8 percent and assets at 6 to 8, whereas loans growing at 25-27, nominal?

Durraiz Khan

Yes, nominal in local currency terms.

Aybek Islamov

That's deliberate re-leveraging of the balance sheet through lending growth?

Durraiz Khan

Yes, because we have the macro has improved, and we have slightly increased our risk appetite in that market.

Aybek Islamov

Thank you.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. We'll take the next question from Naresh Bilandani.

Please go ahead.

Naresh Bilandani

Yes, hi. Thank you very much.

It's Naresh Bilandani from Jefferies. Three questions, please.

One is I'm taking a look at the unutilized credit facilities that you have reported within note 34. There's been a 30 percent increase year-on-year in these facilities, and the driver seems to be coming primarily from the Europe segment.

Can you please offer some more insight into that? Also, how should we think of traditionally, if you've taken a look at the math, how much of these unutilized credit facilities eventually do translate to loan growth?

If you can offer any broad percentage number, that would be super helpful. Also, what's the driver behind these facilities going up in Europe?

That's the first question. Second is you offered a guidance of 6 to 800 million NII impact from 100 bits decline in the rates.

This kind of does not square with the rate sensitivity that is disclosed in the market risk disclosures, where I think every 10 bits decline affects the Qatar rial net interest income by roughly about 122 million Qatari rials. I think the reported impact seems to be a lot higher.

It would very much help if you can explain the divergence between these two, the reported number and the guidance. Third, I would much appreciate if you can please offer NII or the revenue outlook for Turkey and Egypt.

That would be super helpful. Thank you so much.

Durraiz Khan

In terms of the unutilized commitment increase is coming in from Europe, which is primarily our Turkish bank, QNB Bank in Turkey, which is driving that increase. Historically, how much of it is if it comes down to convert it to loans, less than half, close to 30-40 percent.

In terms of the reported number in the market risk segment versus what we have said right now, the market risk segment of the reported number does not include, it's a simple model-driven input and does not include any actions that we have already taken or will be taking to impact or to reduce the impact on the IFRS. That's the delta that you're talking about.

How the NII of both Turkish and Egyptian operations will perform for next year, it is going to be improving, and for both Turkey and Egypt, principally because the rates will be going into easing territory. I don't have exact percentage numbers from both of these operations at this time.

I can get back to you on those.

Naresh Bilandani

Thank you very much. Very kind of you.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. We'll take a follow-up question from Olga.

Please go ahead.

Olga Veselova

Thank you so much for taking a follow-up call. I just wanted to double check your full-year guidance.

You guide 6 to 8 percent P&L growth, and if I look at the components, there is a higher growth of balance sheet expansion, only a small decline in margin with upside risks, a drop in provisioning, cost of risk, drop in hyperinflation adjustment. To me, there is something missing, as if P&L guidance should be a higher number.

What is missing? Is this cost of risk needs to be higher, or anything else?

Durraiz Khan

It is simply giving us some room for any policy uncertainty which may come. That's missing.

Olga Veselova

That's it. Okay.

Thank you so much.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. We have a few questions in the chat.

I think you have answered most of them, but just in case you want to add anything. Zaki is asking if you can talk about sectors, including government, that will drive credit growth in Qatar in 2026?

Durraiz Khan

Credit growth will be broad-based, coming both from the public as well as the private sector.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. Also someone is asking if you could repeat the profit and asset growth guidance for 2026 for QNB Egypt?

Durraiz Khan

Profit growth is 12 to 15 percent and asset growth is 8 to 10 percent.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you. There are no additional questions at this time.

I would like to hand over to you, Mark and Durraiz, for any closing remarks.

Mark Abrahams

Thank you very much, everyone, for your attention today for our full-year results for 2025, and wish you all a good day ahead, and we'll speak to you again in three months' time. Thank you very much.

Bye now.

Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo

Thank you.