Securitas AB (publ)

Securitas AB (publ)

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 24, 2026

APIChatGPT

Magnus Ahlqvist

Okay. Hello, everyone.

I apologize. It seems like we had an interruption on the Internet connection.

So we are restarting here, but we had only done a couple of minutes. So I apologize for the inconvenience.

So welcome to the Q2 and the first half report that Matteo and I are sharing from Stockholm this morning. And today, we will provide an update on the performance.

And before the Q&A, I will also make some comments related to the Capital Markets Day that we had in London last month. But if we are switching then straight to the performance highlights, this is a quarter with some clear positive developments, but also a few areas where we are performing below our plan.

And starting with the growth, the adjusted sales growth was 3% and the growth in Technology North America was a clear positive development, while the growth in Europe was lower as a result of active portfolio management and significant negative impact in Aviation. Sales growth in technology and solutions improved sequentially to 5%, and this recovery was supported by improved performance in Technology in North America.

And what is really positive is that the order entry and the backlog in the Technology installations business increased significantly across all geographic regions and technology momentum is building as we're going into the second half. And from a strategy execution perspective, we are increasing the share of technology and solutions across all segments, which is fully in line with the strategy.

The adjusted operating margin improved to 7.6%, and this was the result of positive mix change when we are growing T&S, or technology and solutions at a higher pace, but with some negative impact from lower top line growth in Services. We have now improved the operating margin 22 quarters in a row.

And looking at the earnings growth, operating income increased 3% in the quarter, and it should be noted that we had approximately 1% negative impact on the real change due to the divestment of the GEG Aviation business in North America. Earnings per share improved 7% in the quarter and 11% in the first half.

And the cash flow was healthy at 87%. The strategic assessment program was finalized in Q2 as was the active portfolio management activities in Europe and Ibero-America.

And we have been driving these programs over multiple years with a significant positive impact on the company with a stronger focus and a higher quality of our business. But as we look ahead, it remains important to continuously work to optimize and calibrate the business, but it's good to have those programs behind us since we can dedicate more focus on client engagement and driving the commercial agenda.

At the Capital Markets Day in London in June, and there, I just want to say thank you to all of you who participated, we announced the strategy and how we are winning during the coming period towards 2030. And we also announced the headline target of achieving average annual growth in EPS of 10%.

So let's then move to the performance in the business lines and the segments. And we delivered margin improvement in both business lines with 11.3% for technology and solutions and 6.3% for services.

The real sales growth in technology and solutions was 5% in the quarter. And as commented earlier, strong recovery in installation in North America contributed.

And the commercial activity in electronic security around all regions around the world is very good now, and we are noting a strong order intake and backlog development in the second quarter. The real sales growth in security services was 0% in the quarter when excluding the impact of the government business to be closed down in North America.

And this flat development is a consequence of active portfolio management, a negative development in aviation, but also a mixed picture in terms of the dynamics in the development of our customers' business in different vertical segments. So with that, we are shifting to the reporting segments and starting, as always, with North America, where the sales growth increased sequentially and the margin was stable.

Technology installation sales improved in Q2 after a very slow start in Q1, and sales growth was stable in the Guarding business. The Pinkerton business is smaller, but continued to hamper the North America growth as a result of the termination of a large temporary contract.

And when comparing to last year, we should also highlight that the recent divestment of the GEG Aviation business had a negative impact on the real change in operating income in the quarter. Real sales growth in technology and solutions was 5% in the quarter.

And as highlighted earlier, we're seeing increasing momentum in Technology installations significant growth in order entry and backlog. But despite some of the top line softness, the operating margin was stable in the second quarter, 20 basis points up in the first half of the year.

And we are then moving to Europe, where we generated continued margin improvement despite negative impact from the airport security business. The organic growth was 2%, and the growth was supported by price increases and primarily related to Türkiye.

And looking at the services business, active portfolio management had a clear negative impact on the growth. The Aviation business was negatively impacted, like I said earlier, and this was now throughout the quarter, and it's all related to the situation in the Middle East and the reduced number of flights.

So we have seen demand reduction in aviation in key markets like Germany of approximately 20% and this had a significant impact on sales and profitability. And from a total growth perspective, the impact from aviation is approximately 1% negative impact on the overall growth in Europe.

The sales growth in technology and solutions was 4%. And the operating margin in Europe was 7% in the quarter, and the margin improvement was driven by technology and solutions business lines.

Security services margin was positively impacted by active portfolio management but negatively impacted by aviation. So all in all, somewhat mixed results development in Europe in the second quarter.

So let's then shift to Ibero-America, where we had a decent development of the business. Organic growth was 5%, and this was driven by very strong growth in technology and solutions, and price increases in security services.

There is a negative impact on the growth from active portfolio management, but our team is driving good conversions to technology and solutions. And the sales growth in technology and solutions was very strong at 13%.

And similar to the European division, we have now completed the active portfolio management program in Ibero-America and now transitioning to business as usual with ongoing portfolio optimization. The operating margin was flat at 7.5% and strong growth in technology and solutions contributed, but overall margin was held back by negative leverage on the cost base in security services.

But looking at the first half, it's a good start to the year by our Ibero-America team. So to summarize the performance, we are driving disciplined execution of our strategy with continued margin development.

And as previously commented, growth came in below expectations in some areas, but we are seeing increasing momentum in the Technology business. And while not reported externally, we had very strong sales growth and margin development in the EMEA business, which is reported in the other segment.

Client retention is stable when you exclude the impact from the close down of the government business in North America. And with that, handing over to you, Matteo, for the finance update.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Matteo Dall’Ora

Thank you, Magnus. We start with the income statement, where we had organic sales growth of 0% and improved the operating margin with 20 basis points to 7.5%.

Now when we look at our performance, excluding the government business to be closed down within SCIS, we delivered an OSG of 3% and an operating margin of 7.6%, which is 10 basis points better than last year. The operating income adjusted for currencies improved in the quarter by 3%.

And in the quarter, we had, as Magnus already mentioned, circa 1% impact on real change due to the aviation business disposal in the U.S. made in the first quarter.

Looking below operating result, there are no material developments in amortization of acquisition-related intangible nor in the acquisition-related costs. Item affecting comparability was minus SEK 46 million, which is a reduction of SEK 120 million compared to last year and in line with our plan.

This is related to our transformation program that will continue throughout 2026. And as previously also communicated, we estimate to have a full year 2026 program cost between SEK 225 million and SEK 250 million.

When we look at the year-to-date, IAC are still positive SEK 138 million due to the capital gain of SEK 213 million that we realized in quarter 1, primarily for the divestment of Global Elite Group in the U.S. Our finance net came in at SEK 355 million, which is a reduction of SEK 124 million compared to last year.

We continue the positive trend of reduced financing costs as interest rates and our debt level are decreasing. As communicated in Q1, we estimate finance net for 2026 continuing to reduce and land below SEK 1.6 billion compared to the SEK 1.8 billion for the full year 2025.

Now moving to tax. Here, our full year forecasted tax rate remained at 27.5%, excluding the capital gain related to the divestiture of Global Elite Group, which is the same level as we had in the first quarter.

Our EPS real change growth was at 14% in the second quarter. When excluding the effect of IAC, the EPS real change growth was 7%, supported by a 3% real change in our operating results and by a strong leverage from the reduced finance net.

For the first half of 2026, our currency adjusted EPS, excluding IAC, increased 11% compared to last year. Quarterly results reflect FX headwinds, which were largely driven by USD, but as you can see here, lower than quarter 1.

Turning to cash flow. We delivered another good quarter, ending at SEK 2.5 billion, which is corresponding to 87% of operating income.

For the first 6 months, cash generation improved by 458 million, reaching 65% of operating income. The year-to-date position is positively impacted by USD 41 million in Q1 due to the payroll timing in our Guarding business in North America and by Paragon net working capital release related to the close down.

The trade receivable negative change we see at quarter end was primarily driven by strong sales growth, particularly in North America with a significant share of sales happening late in the quarter. In addition, the ERP go-live in Norway temporarily delayed invoicing and collection processes.

This timing effects are expected to normalize during quarter 3, resulting in a recovery of trade receivable and supporting cash conversion. The capital expenditure remained below our target at around 2.8% of sales in the quarter.

The free cash flow ended at SEK 1.7 billion, supported by the strong Q2 operating income and reduced financial income and expenses paid from the improved debt provision. The first half free cash flow improved by SEK 752million compared to last year.

We continue to see an improved operating cash flow, and we remain focused on strong cash generation to meet our full year target of 80% to 90% of operating income. We then move and look at our net debt, which was SEK 32.7 billion at the end of the quarter.

This is an increase of SEK 495 million compared to Q1 this year, primarily related to the dividend payment of SEK 1.5 billion and the negative translation difference of minus SEK 513 million due to the weakened Swedish krona. Item affecting comparability remain according to plan.

And as we anticipated during Q1, we are forecasting a cash flow for the full year 2026 in the range between SEK 800 million and SEK 850 million. Looking at the right-hand side, our net debt-to-EBITDA remained at the same level as Q1 at 2.2x, which is an improvement of 0.2x compared to Q2 last year.

We are below our target, and we want to continue to be below 2.5x and expect to continue to deleverage our balance sheet in the short term. Looking at our financing and financial position where we continue to have a strong balance sheet, strong liquidity, and we remain without any financial covenants in our debt facilities.

In the second quarter, we extended by 1 year our revolving credit facility and the new facility consists of 2 tranches, one of EUR 900 million, which will mature in 2031 and one for EUR 200 million, which will mature in 2029. Each of these tranches might be extended for another extra year.

Going forward and looking at the maturity chart, we have very limited refinancing needs throughout 2026. And our focus will be to continue to amortize debt supported by a strong free cash flow generation.

And finally, we remain committed to our investment-grade rating. And with that, Magnus, I hand it over back to you.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Magnus Ahlqvist

Many thanks, Matteo. So before we open up to Q&A, I would like just to share a few key messages related to the CMD announcements and our journey ahead.

And as communicated at the CMD in London last month, we are well positioned for profitable growth. The winners in the security industry in the future must deliver quality and offer the clients technology, digital and intelligence-led capabilities.

And with these capabilities, we are very well positioned to capitalize on the changing dynamics and to drive profitable growth. And with our new financial targets, we emphasize 10% annual average EPS growth over a cycle.

And to us, this refers to the period leading up to 2030, which is the target year for our next strategic phase. And we have a long-term ambition to reach 10% operating margin.

But after a period of extensive transformation, we are now making this shift to focus on profitable growth. And leveraging our unique offering, which is future-proof and clearly differentiated from our competition, we target around 4% to 6% organic growth and expect the continued mix shift to contribute to margin improvement.

And we are now intensifying our efforts to commercialize, monetize the capabilities we have built, and this includes strengthening our commercial capabilities, implementing incentives to drive cross and upselling at scale, but also training our client teams to sell more integrated services and transforming the business towards intelligence-led. And all of these efforts will have a positive impact on the overall growth and driving the mix change towards higher added value services.

And then regarding capital allocation, after a period of deleveraging after the STANLEY acquisition, we have a strong balance sheet. We're building the M&A pipeline with emphasis on technology bolt-ons.

And we will be disciplined and will return excess capital to shareholders. So to conclude this section, due to the changing market dynamics and rapid developments in technology, automation and AI, I expect the coming 5 years in this industry to be more transformative than the last 25.

But when you look at our presence, our technology and digital capabilities, we are very well positioned for the next phase and are stepping up the engagement with our clients, and we continue to drive the execution of our strategy to be the trusted partner in intelligence-led security. So with that, Matteo and I are happy to open up the Q&A.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Operator

The next question comes from Simon Jönsson from ABG Sundal Collier.

Operator

Magnus Ahlqvist

Simon, we cannot hear you.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Operator

Simon Jönsson, ABG Sundal Collier. Your line is unmuted.

Operator

Simon Jönsson

Can you hear me?

Simon Jönsson

Magnus Ahlqvist

Yes.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Simon Jönsson

Perfect. So first of all, on the U.S.

the margin specifically, if you can expand a bit more on the different moving parts here resulting in the relatively flat margins year-over-year and also the phasing of these factors for the rest of the year? I mean you mentioned, for instance, Pinkerton here, and we also have other factors like growth in technology and also the margin boost from SCIS.

So yes, please if you can expand a bit on the moving parts, both this quarter and what you expect coming quarters on those margin effects?

Simon Jönsson

Matteo Dall’Ora

Simon, Matteo here. So I think when you look at the quarter, the main impact related to the profitability in the U.S.

is coming from the Pinkerton reduction. As we said, we had a termination of a temporary contract end of last year, which is impacting quite substantially.

And this is the main reason for the profitability drop in the U.S. Going forward, it's very difficult.

We don't guide for the second half, but we should be able to -- the comparison with last year's like-for-like is a bit more tough. The second half was a strong second half, but we believe that we can maintain our profitability in the U.S.

business on a good level for the second half as well.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Simon Jönsson

All right. And then I have a question on the SCIS closure.

Where you are in sort of the phasing of that termination in relative terms compared to last quarter?

Simon Jönsson

Matteo Dall’Ora

Yes. So when you look at that one, since we announced it, we have been executing the close down according to plan, and I would say slightly ahead of plan as well.

So firm commitment to have finalized all of that by the end of this year. But we are obviously keen on doing it as quickly as we can.

But they're depending also on some of the interaction and approvals and things like that from some government agencies. So it's not entirely within our control, but we feel comfortable we're going to be able to have all of that finalized but at slightly accelerated pace right now, which is positive.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Simon Jönsson

All right. Could you give any color on what that means in terms of percentage of how much you've done so far?

Simon Jönsson

Matteo Dall’Ora

We don't break that out, but it is going according to plan. So nothing more to say there.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Simon Jönsson

All right. I understand.

Then my second question is on technology and solutions specifically. And when you talk about the strong orders, both intake and the backlog, is that across regions, you would say?

And if we look at U.S. specifically, now here in this quarter, would you say that you are back to a more normal growth level?

Or are there still any kind of temporary effects either positive or negative?

Simon Jönsson

Matteo Dall’Ora

Yes. I would say, first of all, I only highlight it because it is a significant increase.

And this is obviously very positive because we have been investing a lot in the Electronic Security business. We have been now also through all the integration works.

I mean we're now able to also focus full effort on driving the commercial engagement and also developing the operations. So this is something that we are seeing across all geographic regions around the world.

So that is really positive because that gives me a good feeling in terms of the momentum in the Technology business. And we say that it's very much then the design and installations business, where we see this positive development.

If you're looking at the general, and I think also a bit related to your last question, there is a clear difference between different vertical segments. I think on the totality, on the technology side, we are doing quite well.

Obviously, when you're looking at the order entry and really strong backlog. When you're looking at the Guarding part of the business, there, it's a little bit of a mixed situation between different vertical segments where some are strong and a few others are weaker.

But on the technology overall, I think we are definitely back at a normalized type of situation to address your question on the technology side.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Simon Jönsson

Okay. Perfect.

Then just one final follow-up on Pinkerton specifically here, given that it's a significant impact on the profitability. What do you see there in terms of offsetting factors you could do and what you are doing to mitigate that?

Is it that you adjust the organization? Or do you expect to build up the business and compensate?

Or was it more on temporarily high levels before? Or yes, what's your plan for that?

Simon Jönsson

Matteo Dall’Ora

Simon, can you just repeat because I struggle to hear you the first part of the sentence. Which part of the business?

Matteo Dall’Ora

Simon Jönsson

Pinkerton.

Simon Jönsson

Matteo Dall’Ora

Sorry. Yes.

So when you look at that one, I mean, this is a fairly small business, but it's an important business within the corporate risk management space. We had a very significant contract that was a temporary contract that was terminated at the end of 2025.

So it's unfortunately hurting quite a lot in the comparables when we are looking at the year-on-year. It's a good business.

There is clear demand, but it's taking some time to then recover. And there, we're obviously having negative leverage, which is hurting quite a lot when you have fixed cost base and then a revenue number, which is coming down.

So that's something that we are -- and our leaders are hard at work there to ensure that we address those ones and that we also then rebuild the commercial momentum and also the positive growth impact because it had a significant negative impact in the second quarter on the growth and also on the profitability in North America.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Simon Jönsson

Okay. So you are rather looking to expand those volumes again rather than adjusting the organization basically?

Simon Jönsson

Matteo Dall’Ora

I mean we always take action if we have a weakness in the top line, we try to take actions immediately. And that's something that we're trying to optimize now.

But it's also an important business strategically. So I think it's also a matter of, okay, we just have to kind of face the tough reality that we had that termination, but then it's about rebuilding at the same time.

So I would say, it's a little bit of both, Simon, to manage the business in a responsible way.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Operator

The next question comes from Dan Heimer from SEB.

Operator

Dan Johansson

I hope you can hear me. A couple of questions from my side as well.

Maybe starting a little bit on aviation. I think you mentioned that you saw an impact to your airport security business due to the political situation in the Middle East.

If I heard you correctly, it was throughout the quarter, right? So -- and aviation is -- I know it's a smaller part of your business today, but it's still quite relevant for Q3 in particular.

So should I read it as you don't expect an immediate pickup? Or how should I read how the situation is within aviation right now?

Dan Johansson

Magnus Ahlqvist

Thank you, Dan. So yes, it's correct.

We highlighted in the Q1 report. I mean then we had essentially 1 month of impact in the month of March.

Now it's throughout the quarter. And the size of the impact has been on the high side also in relation to my expectation.

And just to give some flavor of that, I mean, we've seen approximately 20% demand reduction in terms of the capacity and the hours that we are providing in terms of security screening work. As it happens, we are doing a lot of the work at terminals that have more exposure to the traffic to and from the Middle East.

So that is obviously one that is negatively impacting. It's really difficult to say, obviously, how that situation is going to develop because that's related to political matters that are difficult to project.

But what we are doing because we had -- like Matteo and I highlighted, we did have real fixed cost negative leverage that hurt also the operating margin quite a lot in Europe in the quarter related to the aviation. So that's something that we are now -- we've taken actions to try to adjust that.

But the top line demand, that is difficult to forecast. So I hope that gives a better understanding of the situation.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Dan Johansson

Yes, I fully understand. Maybe continuing a little bit on what you said about intensifying your efforts to commercialize the capabilities you built within technology.

Since you have that strong offering, what sort is the missing link to drive that to growth? Is it a little bit of a mindset thing that you've been throughout the period of focusing maybe inwards and improving profitability and it takes some time to restart growth again?

Or what's needed to drive a little bit higher growth here ahead?

Dan Johansson

Magnus Ahlqvist

Yes. I would say that when you're looking at this year, we've had a lot of emphasis and focus on creating a sharp and a quality portfolio.

So in that sense, just the fact that we are done with the active portfolio management work, that is important across all Guarding business, and that's obviously a significant part of the total business. We have also since 6, 12 months, and I think I've been sharing a little bit about that as well, also been spending quite a lot of time and effort in terms of how we are strengthening our commercial capabilities.

And that's partly leaders and leadership, some changes that we have been making to ensure that we're also bringing commercial leaders that are capable of also delivering the value proposition that we have now, which is stronger than ever, especially when you look at an increasing pace of shift towards more technology and more digital and risk-based capabilities. So that is another one.

The third one is also the -- that we have also been building also more -- or driving more changes in terms of incentive models, for example. And those incentive models to ensure that when we now have really strong different protective services capabilities that we are driving cross-selling, that we're driving upselling, but that we're also then doing more to be able to deliver more integrated and more intelligence-led capabilities to the client.

So all of this is fully in line with the strategy, but it is a little bit of a transition phase because we had very strong focus, obviously, on quality on operating margin achievement. Now we are shifting that focus back to profitable growth and also then in selling a richer offering.

So I think that's a bit where we are right now. And then as you know, nothing is happening immediately.

We can take actions, but it always takes a little bit of time before we also start to see the full impact. But I would highlight that when I look at the Technology business, one of the most positive aspects about Q2 is the significant strength in order entry and the backlog because that's obviously an area which is significantly important as we go forward.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Dan Johansson

Makes a lot of sense. Maybe a final one for you, Matteo.

The increase in the sales outstanding, is that a timing thing and we should expect that to revert during the second half of the year when your cash flows are typically stronger? Or what's driving that?

Dan Johansson

Matteo Dall’Ora

Yes. As I mentioned during the call, Dan, this is, I believe, a temporary effect, and we are expecting this to be normalized in quarter 3.

That was mainly related to the strong sales evolution in North America technology, especially at the end of the quarter. Therefore, there is a bit of a timing lag there.

And also, we had the ERP implementation in Norway, which we had a bit of a hiccup in certain processes. One of those was the collection of AR.

And I believe this one will be solved also in the next week. So this will be recovered definitely in quarter 3.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Operator

The next question comes from Andy Grobler from BNPP.

Operator

Andrew Grobler

Just a few small ones from me, please. You talked about Pinkerton and the impact of that lost temporary contract on growth and margin.

Could you try and quantify that a little more so we can understand kind of what the underlying growth rates would be? And just to clarify on that, you talked about negative operational leverage as a result of losing this contract.

But you've also said it was a temporary contract. So presumably, any cost build was just contained within that contract.

And essentially, we saw better leverage last year when you have that contract and now we're just going back to a more normal level. Is that the right way to think about it?

That would be my first question. Secondly, just a quick one on the IACs, the guidance for the cash cost for the year is SEK 800 million to SEK 850 million, and you've talked about the transformation costs.

Can you just go through the other components from a cash perspective of that cost for the year? And then thirdly, just quickly, you mentioned this before, but the rise in DSOs due to the ERP in Norway and North American timing.

Again, could you just help quantify how much that drove higher receivables and what the normalized level would be?

Andrew Grobler

Matteo Dall’Ora

Andy, so I'll start with the first one, Pinkerton. I think as I said, Pinkerton was the main driver for the, let's say, flat evolution of operating margin in North America.

And like you said, a temporary contract. So we are working, as Magnus also mentioned in the previous question, to -- from a cost structure point of view.

So I believe we are moving on the right direction there. But also we are working to make sure that commercially, we continue to perform and grow on this important segment for us.

So both -- we continue to work on growing the Pinkerton business, but also we look at -- we are looking at the cost structure to make sure that we protect the bottom line there as well. So I believe this will be moved and is moving on the right direction in the second half.

When it comes to the second question on the IAC cash flow, this is -- you're right, I mentioned the forecast at the moment is SEK 800 million to SEK 850 million for the full year. Majority of this is related to the close down of the SEIS business.

We are not certain 100% that will be completely impacted in 2026. Certain items might end up in 2027, but we will be a bit more certain and we can be more accurate in our answer in -- at the end of quarter 3 because right now, we are still evaluating a few things.

But the majority of this is related to the closedown. And then the DSO, as I said, these are the main 2 impacts.

The biggest impact of the 2, the one that I mentioned, the ERP in Norway and the sales growth in the U.S. is actually the U.S.

business sales growth that has the biggest impact. To quantify it is a bit difficult.

I would say that 70% of the increase that we see in the DSO is coming from the U.S., therefore, also the trade receivable will change that you see there. So I believe, as I said, that this is just a temporary issue because the sales was really strong at the end of the quarter.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Andrew Grobler

Okay. Just to check a couple of things.

The lost temporary contract, that will remain a headwind, all else being equal through the remainder of the year. Is that correct?

And two, just with the closure cost for SCIS, are you still expecting to have a receivables unwind, which partially offsets that through working capital?

Andrew Grobler

Matteo Dall’Ora

The second question, yes. And the first question about Pinkerton is yes, again.

But we also need to see the underlying performance of Pinkerton without this temporary contract. So they are growing.

And of course, they are not able to offset completely this termination. But again, working to recover part of this termination throughout the 2026, therefore, also improve their profitability.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Operator

The next question comes from Geoffroy Michalet from ODDO BHF.

Operator

Geoffroy Michalet

I hope you can hear me. A few questions.

On the portfolio reshuffling that you have finalized in Europe and Ibero-America in Q2, would you be able to give us kind of growth impact it had on the top line? And in your view, until when do you expect to see the impact on the organic growth going forward?

The second question is on the order intake you mentioned on the technology and solutions side. Could you give us a sense on the kind of clients that are, let's say, contributing to increase the order intake?

Are they large, medium or small clients? And is it a result of some change in commercial activity?

And also in terms of, let's say, sales cycle for the transformation of that backlog into sales, what kind of, let's say, delay do you expect? So when do you think we could see this growth in T&S increasing in your sales?

Geoffroy Michalet

Magnus Ahlqvist

Yes. Thank you.

So Geoffroy, when you look at the active portfolio management, this is a multiyear program that we have been driving. And obviously, on the Guarding part of the business, and that's a portfolio business.

So we typically don't see very quick swings in that sense. It's usually a little bit more slower moving.

But the important thing is that it's been quite tough work, but important work to ensure that all contracts are financially sustainable and that we're making decent profit. So we don't really project that, but it is somewhat slower moving when you're looking at the impact.

But obviously, over time, there will be positive impact from the fact that we have finalized that work. When you're looking at the order entry, the order entry is in the technology installations business that we are referring to, not the solutions business.

But that's fairly broad-based. It's -- but if I were to highlight one kind of tendency, I would say, due to the economic situation, we're seeing more strength in a number of vertical segments like in Technology, when you look at defense, when you look at the financial segments, for example, where there is very strong demand.

If you're looking at more of the local businesses, there is more of a mixed picture. But the important thing is that it is broad-based.

And the last question that you had, okay, if you have a strong and growing order entry situation and the backlog, well, some jobs we are able to convert fairly quickly. But here, we're typically talking 4, 5, 6 months type of situation when you look at how we're converting backlog to revenue.

So that's a little bit the time line that I would keep in mind.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Operator

The next question comes from Viktor Lindeberg from DNB Carnegie.

Operator

Viktor Lindeberg

A couple of follow-ups on North America from my side as a start. And GEG has not been touched upon that much.

I think you mentioned about 1 percentage point of headwind on growth. But can you comment the impact on profitability in the quarter starting there?

Viktor Lindeberg

Magnus Ahlqvist

Yes. So the 1% is on the income, so the operating income.

I think on the margin, we're not really breaking that out. I would say it's more marginal impact on the margin overall.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Viktor Lindeberg

Okay. On Pinkerton, just to understand the dynamics here.

It's been a hot topic today. And you mentioned actually in Q1 that it was performing better year-over-year in terms of margin progression and nothing about the contract loss in itself.

So was this a, call it, back-end surprise to you when looking at the quarter now and basically that you were operating with costs that were perhaps masked when communicating around Q1 and how Pinkerton performed back then?

Viktor Lindeberg

Magnus Ahlqvist

Yes. We have some adjustments, like I said, Viktor, related to that termination.

And then obviously, I mean, it is -- there is a full business context. But as I commented earlier, here, it's obviously important that we rebuild the commercial momentum and drive the growth, but the team also then working on optimizing costs so that we -- because otherwise, there is always a risk when you have a bigger top line swing that there is some negative leverage on the fixed cost base in the short term.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Viktor Lindeberg

And apologies for that, missed on the technical aspect of it. Then more of a high-level question and maybe also connected a bit more to your medium-term targets.

We are now looking at the coming 6 months and you face basically quite difficult margin comparables. You had a very good second half last year.

Now we have a bit uncertain situation about the aviation business in the shorter term, we have a contract lost in the U.S. and so forth.

Can you share -- maybe not quantify, but share your view on the second half in terms of margin progression? Are we looking more sideways from here?

Or you have internal initiatives and maybe some tailwind from the technology backlog that should support, et cetera, just to understand and clarify a bit where we are and where you think we are heading.

Viktor Lindeberg

Magnus Ahlqvist

Yes. So when you look at what we shared, and we don't guide specifically for any time period, but just referring to what we said in the Capital Markets Day, we see with the portfolio and the capabilities that we have in terms of driving mix change, but also then increased efficiency in terms of how we operate an opportunity over time to drive around 20, 30 basis points.

And that is the firm belief that we are operating with. So I don't think that there is so much more to say.

Mix change is obviously important because if we are driving significantly higher growth on technology and also solutions, that will obviously also have an impact and a clear impact. So I think the mix change is important.

But we have also been shaping the business in a way that we feel confident that we're going to be able to drive continuous margin improvement over the next period.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Viktor Lindeberg

And finally, just to clarify on the working capital in closing down the SCIS business. Has most of that cash flow being released now?

Or is a bigger part ahead of us?

Viktor Lindeberg

Matteo Dall’Ora

I think it's a continuous -- it's happening continuously, Viktor. I think the -- again, as I said, the forecast from a cash flow point of view is about SEK 800 million, SEK 850 million towards the end of the year.

So I think we are in line with our plan. So it's a continuous happening in our cash flow.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Viktor Lindeberg

Yes. This was more about the working capital release from the mounting down of the business and how it has affected the ratios, net working capital ratios, et cetera.

Viktor Lindeberg

Matteo Dall’Ora

Yes. As I said, it continues throughout the 2026.

So it's -- and our forecast at the moment is about SEK 800 million at the end of the year. And then again, as I said, there might be some items going into 2027.

Matteo Dall’Ora

Operator

The next question comes from Nicole Manion from UBS.

Operator

Nicole Manion

Just one follow-up on the margin, please. I've had quite a bit of color on Europe and North America, but I think you also mentioned some negative operating leverage in security services in Ibero-America.

Could you just give more detail on what you've seen there and how that's kind of evolving into the second half?

Nicole Manion

Magnus Ahlqvist

Yes. Thanks, Nicole.

So I think that one was more temporary measures, a little bit related to movements that we had in portfolio. Overall growth in Ibero-America, very strong on the solutions and the technology side.

I think it was more related to movements in the Guarding or the services business. But we have a strong track record and typically manage in a strong way.

So that's also something that I expect that we're going to address swiftly.

Magnus Ahlqvist

Magnus Ahlqvist

With that, we conclude the conference. Thanks a lot, everyone, for your engagement and talk to you soon.

Thank you.