Smithfield Foods, Inc.

Smithfield Foods, Inc.

18.81
USD
+0.51
(+2.79%)
2.71EPS
9.01P/E
9.55BMarket Cap
Oct 27Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 24, 2026

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Smithfield Foods fourth quarter 2025 financial results conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode.

Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad, and to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, today's event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie MacMedan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Julie MacMedan

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Smithfield's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call.

Earlier this morning, we announced our results. A copy of the release, as well as today's presentation, are available on our IR website, investors.smithfieldfoods.com.

Today's presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements that are being provided pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include all comments reflecting our expectations, assumptions, or beliefs about future events or performance that do not relate solely to historical periods.

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the release, in our annual report on Form 10-K, our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events, or other factors. Please refer to our legal disclaimer on slide two of the presentation for more information.

Today's presentation will also include certain non-GAAP measures, including, but not limited to, adjusted operating profit and margin, adjusted net income, adjusted earnings per share, and adjusted EBITDA. For a reconciliation of these and other non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures, please refer to our earnings press release and our slide presentation on our website.

Finally, all references to retail volume and market share are based on Circana MULO+ data. With me this morning are Shane Smith, President and CEO; Mark Hall, CFO; Steve France, President of Packaged Meats; and Donovan Owens, President of North America Pork.

I will now turn the discussion over to Shane. Shane?

Shane Smith

Thank you, Julie. Good morning, everyone.

2025 was an outstanding year. Solid execution on our strategies drove record profits, expanded margins, and increased cash flow.

We set the foundation for multi-year growth while maintaining a very strong financial position, investing in our business, and returning value to our shareholders. Last January, we returned to the US equity markets through an IPO that reintroduced us as the new Smithfield.

While our history spans 90 years, the transformation underway over the past decade has fundamentally reshaped Smithfield into a leaner, more profitable, and strategically focused company. We streamlined our packaged meats portfolio, exited non-core and high-cost operations, accelerated automation, and built an accountable culture focused on profitable growth.

This hard work prepared us for the IPO. In 2025, our first year as a public company, we delivered on our commitments: record operating profit, record net income, strength in margins, and disciplined execution across all segments.

Importantly, these results were broad-based, reflecting the power of our diversified product portfolio, our vertically integrated model, and our relentless focus on operational excellence. The advantages of our model were clear in 2025, and we see further opportunities for coordination across the value chain.

I'm pleased to announce that we have named Donovan Owens President of North America Pork. Under Donovan's leadership, the Fresh Pork segment adjusted operating profit increased to $209 million in 2025 from $30 million in 2022.

This performance demonstrates our improved agility, channel mix, and disciplined operating focus. Under the new structure, fresh pork, hog production, and commodity risk management will report to Donovan.

Donovan will also oversee our Mexico operations, which are an integral part of our North America growth strategy. We are excited about the opportunity to unlock additional synergies across our upstream businesses in this new structure.

Now I'd like to review our fiscal 2025 accomplishments in more detail. On a consolidated basis, adjusted operating profit increased 30% to $1.3 billion, with profit margin expanding to 8.6%, up from 7.2% in 2024.

Each segment executed effectively. Packaged Meats delivered its fourth consecutive year of operating profit above $1 billion and its second highest profit year despite higher raw material costs and a cautious consumer spending environment.

Fresh Pork demonstrated strong execution amid a compressed industry market spread and trade disruptions due to tariffs. Hog Production achieved its highest profit year since 2014, reflecting improved operations and market conditions.

Across the company, continuous improvement and productivity initiatives delivered meaningful cost savings. Our rock-solid balance sheet with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of just 0.3 times at the end of the year provides us with the financial flexibility to support our growth strategies and return value to our shareholders.

In 2025, we returned value to shareholders through dividend payments of $1 per share. Today, we announced a quarterly dividend of 31 and a quarter cents per share, and we anticipate paying annual dividends of $1.25 per share in 2026.

In January, we entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Nathan's Famous for $102 per share. Successfully closing this acquisition will be immediately accretive and will secure a core national brand and create meaningful growth and synergy opportunities.

In February, we announced that we have initiated the approval process to invest up to an estimated $1.3 billion over the next three years to build a new state-of-the-art packaged meats and fresh pork processing facility in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Building this innovative new plant from the ground up will represent one of the largest investments in American agriculture and will modernize our manufacturing footprint and unlock long-term cost and efficiency benefits.

Now let's turn to our growth outlook for fiscal 2026. Protein demand is strong and growing across consumer demographics, valued for its nutrition and health benefits.

Pork, which is not our only protein, but is our primary offering, is well-positioned within the protein complex. Pork presents a strong relative value to beef, and its nutritional profile with lean cuts like pork tenderloin offers a superior nutritional alternative to chicken breast.

Pork is also central to Asian and Latin cuisines, which are popular with US consumers, particularly among Gen Z and millennials. We believe all these factors serve as a long-term tailwind for pork, and we expect 2026 to be another year of increased profitability, driven by margin expansion, disciplined cost management, and continued execution of our core strategies.

Our five strategic growth priorities remain unchanged: increase Packaged Meats profit through mix, volume growth, and innovation; grow Fresh Pork profit by maximizing the net realizable value across channels in a best-in-class cost structure; achieve a best-in-class hog production cost structure; drive operating efficiencies in manufacturing, supply chain, distribution, procurement, and SG&A; and evaluate synergistic M&A opportunities. First, in Packaged Meats, which is our largest and most profitable segment, we are meeting the demand for protein with convenience, flavor, and value through our strong brand portfolio, as well as our private label offerings.

Our strategy to grow Packaged Meats operating profit centers on three levers: mix improvement, volume growth, and innovation. First, product mix.

We remain focused on accelerating the shift toward higher-margin, value-added product categories and expanding unit velocity while reducing volume of lower-margin commodity-type product categories. Coming out of 2025, we saw strong momentum in these value-added categories.

In the fourth quarter, we grew units and market share in our core higher-margin focus areas of lunch meat and cooked dinner sausage, among others. We expect these higher-margin categories to again achieve strong volume growth in 2026.

Second, volume growth. We participate in 25 key packaged meats subcategories in retail, 10 of which are valued at over $1 billion.

In 2025, we grew branded volume share in six of these billion-dollar-plus categories. This volume growth reflects strong increases in our points of distribution led by our national brands.

Looking ahead, we see continued white-space opportunities to grow volume and increase market share in each of these categories. We are driving volume in today's economy by delivering quality protein at a good value.

Our portfolio of quality branded products spans multiple categories and price points and is an important competitive advantage for Smithfield. A great example is lunch meat.

We are attracting and retaining consumers within our branded portfolio even as they trade up and down the value spectrum. If they choose private label, we benefit as well.

Over the past several years, we have improved private label profitability, which represents just under 40% of our retail channel sales. We are also supporting our brands by investing in direct-to-consumer advertising and effective trade promotion.

In 2025, we increased food service sales by 10%, driving higher sales volumes with both new and existing customers. Our success in food service reflects our position as a scaled, trusted provider of high-quality products, as well as our ability to deliver value-added solutions to save our food service customers time and money.

We are also very agile in helping food service customers launch limited-time offers, which help drive traffic. In 2025, we introduced 57 new limited-time offers, which gave consumers reasons to keep coming back.

Despite food-away-from-home inflation nearly double that of food at home, we successfully grew food service volume 2% in 2025. In 2026, we expect to increase Packaged Meats volume across the retail and food service channels, driven by product innovation, strong marketing, advertising, and trade investment.

Next, product innovation. Innovation is an important pillar of our Packaged Meats growth strategy.

We focus on introducing new flavors, convenient and easily prepared offerings, and premium offerings. We have numerous innovative product offerings planned for 2026 in the retail channel for our three national brands: Smithfield, Eckrich, and Nathan's.

In summary, we expect to grow Packaged Meats profitability by focusing on three levers: mix improvement, volume, and innovation. Now let's talk about our second core growth strategy: increasing Fresh Pork profitability.

We are focused on maximizing net realizable value across channels and continuing to improve operating efficiencies. 2025 was a dynamic year for Fresh Pork due to both compressed market spreads and trade disruptions.

Historically, compressed market spreads, the price between hogs and meat, significantly reduced profitability. However, our Fresh Pork team demonstrated agility and delivered strong profitability even in tighter markets due to our improved cost structure and diversified channel strategy.

In 2025, Fresh Pork profitability was strengthened by sales and volume growth in the US retail channel, with profit enhanced by value-added case-ready items. We also grew volume and profitability in our pet food and pharmaceutical channels, executing well on our next-best-sale strategy.

In addition, we continued to deliver operating efficiencies and cost savings, which helped mitigate the impact of the compressed market spread on segment profitability. In 2026, our priorities include: growing volume in the US retail channel; emphasizing higher-margin, value-added case-ready and marinated offerings; expanding adjacent channel opportunities such as pet food and pharmaceuticals; increasing automation, plant efficiency, yield optimization, and supply chain savings; and optimizing harvest levels across our network.

By focusing on these priorities, we will continue to outperform the market. Now to our strategy to optimize hog production.

We continue to progress toward a best-in-class cost structure in hog production. In 2025, we outperformed the Iowa State benchmark for hog grower profitability, reflecting improved genetics, feed management, and herd health.

In 2026, we will continue to focus on improving our operations, including herd health and feed conversion. We're also excited about unlocking more opportunities across our hog production and fresh pork segments under Donovan's leadership.

With respect to the number of hogs internally produced, in 2025, we produced 11.1 million hogs, which is down from 17.6 million at the high point in 2019 and from 14.6 million in 2024. This reduction reflects the transfer of 3.8 million hogs to our external joint ventures, which was consistent with our right-sizing strategy.

Over the medium term, we continue to target producing approximately 30% of Fresh Pork's needs internally. We believe this will provide an optimal balance of assured supply and cost risk management.

Next, our strategy to optimize operations and deliver operating efficiencies in manufacturing, supply chain, distribution, procurement, and SG&A was a meaningful contributor to our improved profitability in 2025. In 2026, we are looking to accelerate the use of innovative technologies across all aspects of our business.

We are increasingly leveraging advanced technology to become a more efficient business and to further strengthen our competitive position. We deploy this technology to drive innovation, productivity, and optimize performance on our farms, in our processing facilities, and across our corporate functions.

For example, we recently formed a co-sourcing partnership with a third-party technology provider that will provide the benefits of artificial intelligence and robotic process automation for administrative and transactional work in our finance operations. This partnership gives us immediate access to the latest technology and provides flexibility as technology change continues to accelerate.

Finally, we continue to evaluate opportunistic M&A to support our growth strategies. In January, we entered into an agreement to acquire one of our top national packaged meats brands, Nathan's Famous.

Successfully closing the acquisition will secure our rights to this iconic brand into perpetuity and enable us to maximize Nathan's Famous brand growth across the retail and food service channels. With this acquisition, we will own all our major packaged meats brands.

We will remain disciplined in evaluating additional complementary and synergistic M&A opportunities. In summary, we have returned to the US equity market well-positioned to deliver reliable, repeatable earnings and cash flow growth.

Our business model has never been stronger. Our high-performing, vertically integrated model led by Packaged Meats provides a competitive advantage and supports sustainable margin expansion over the long term.

We are investing capital in a disciplined manner to support our growth strategies, to generate attractive returns, and to build sustainable long-term value for our shareholders. With that, I will turn it over to Mark to review our financials in more detail.

Mark Hall

Thanks, Shane, and good morning to everyone joining the call. Our strong 2025 results reflect the consistent execution and resilience of our teams.

We closed the year with an outstanding fourth quarter. Total company sales increased 7% for the fourth quarter and 10% for the year, with growth across all segments, reflecting higher market prices across the pork value chain and Packaged Meats' ability to maintain pricing discipline through innovation and brand power.

Record fourth quarter adjusted operating profit of $402 million fueled our record full year 2025 adjusted operating profit of $1.3 billion. Full year adjusted operating profit margin increased an impressive 140 basis points to 8.6%.

Fourth quarter adjusted net income from continuing operations attributable to Smithfield was $329 million, which was our second highest on record. This helped us deliver a record $1 billion for the full year.

Adjusted diluted EPS for the fourth quarter was 83 cents per share, up from 52 cents per share in 2024, and for the full year was $2.55 per share, representing a 36% increase from 2024. Now on to our fiscal year 2025 segment results.

Packaged Meats delivered fiscal year 2025 adjusted operating profit of $1.1 billion, representing an operating profit margin of 12.6%. Delivering strong profitability in the face of raw material input cost increases of $525 million and a challenging consumer spending environment demonstrates the success of our Packaged Meats segment strategy.

Packaged Meats fiscal 2025 sales of $8.8 billion increased by 5.3% compared to fiscal 2024. This was driven by a 5.6% increase in average selling price with roughly flat sales volume.

Industrywide, volume growth has been challenged due to inflation and consumers' tight budgets. As Shane mentioned, we were able to maintain volume through the power of our strong branded portfolio, complemented with private label options and our diversified product portfolio offering convenience, flavor, and value.

The higher average selling price was driven primarily by higher market prices across the pork value chain, with key raw materials such as bellies up 19%, trim up 19% to 35%, and ham up 9% year-over-year. Next, Fresh Pork.

For 2025, we delivered $209 million in adjusted operating profit despite a $135 million year-over-year decline in the industry market spread. Truly an outstanding job by the Fresh Pork team.

As Shane mentioned, Fresh Pork executed well on maximizing the net realizable value of each hog and continued to deliver operating efficiencies and cost savings, which largely mitigated the impact of the compressed market spread and export market disruption on segment profitability. Fresh Pork sales of $8.3 billion increased 6% year-over-year, primarily driven by a 5.8% increase in the average selling price and roughly flat volume.

The higher average selling price was driven primarily by higher market prices across the pork value chain. Turning now to Hog Production.

Hog Production generated $176 million in adjusted operating profit, the highest since 2014. The strong results were driven by improved commodity markets, as well as actions we've taken to optimize our operations.

2025 Hog Production sales of $3.4 billion increased by 13% year-over-year. This was despite a 23% or approximately 3.4 million head reduction in the number of hogs produced as part of our planned rationalization strategy.

The sales increase was primarily due to higher external sales to our new joint venture partners, both from ongoing sales of grain, feed, and other services, as well as from the initial transfer of commercial hog inventories. Our average market hog sales price was up 8.9% year-over-year, inclusive of the effects of hedging.

Adjusted operating profit for our other segment, which includes our Mexico and bioscience operations, of $45 million increased $10 million compared to 2024. We see the Mexico market as a big opportunity for future growth.

Our corporate expenses came in $26 million below the prior year, reflecting our disciplined cost management strategies. In summary, we delivered a record 2025 operating profit and net income through the solid, consistent execution across our operations.

Next, let's review our strong financial position and cash flow generation. At the end of 2025, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 0.3 times, well below our policy of no less than two times.

Our liquidity at the end of the year was $3.8 billion, including $1.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents. This is well above our liquidity policy threshold of $1 billion.

During 2025, we generated cash flows from operations of over $1 billion, and it would have been a record of nearly $1.3 billion when adjusted for the repayment of an accounts receivable monetization facility. Capital expenditures for 2025 were $341 million compared to $350 million for 2024.

Approximately 50% of our planned capital investments each year are to fund projects that will drive both top and bottom line growth. This consists primarily of various plant automation and improvement projects as we continue to lower our manufacturing cost structure and better utilize labor.

Reinforcing our commitment to return value to shareholders, we paid $1 per share in annual dividends in 2025. As Shane mentioned today, we announced that our board declared a quarterly dividend of 31 and a quarter cents per share and that we anticipate paying annual dividends of $1.25 in 2026.

Our ample liquidity, including sizable cash balance and robust cash flows, supports our investment in business growth and shareholder return while maintaining a strong financial position. Now on to our outlook for fiscal 2026.

First, I'd like to share our thoughts on potential market tailwinds and headwinds that could impact our 2026 results. First, tailwinds.

We expect protein to remain in high demand in 2026 and for pork to be well-positioned as a healthy, affordable option for consumers. We also see raw material costs as a tailwind.

While we expect input costs to remain elevated by historical standards, they should be slightly lower than in 2025. Our raw material assumptions are supported by the USDA outlook for pork production to be up 2.5% in 2026.

That said, we're monitoring herd health as a key variable impacting the outlook for US pork production and raw material costs. Potential headwinds that we're monitoring include the continued cautious consumer spending environment and a dynamic geopolitical environment.

It's still too early to predict the full impact from the conflict in Iran, but there are three main components of our business that this could impact: first, the direct impact of fuel costs such as diesel; second, corn prices, which are tightly correlated to the oil markets; third, the petroleum-derived supplies that we use, such as resin-based packaging. Based on what we know today, we believe our outlook incorporates identified risks, but it will depend on the duration of the conflict.

With these assumptions as a backdrop, our outlook for fiscal 2026 calls for continued margin expansion driven by the strategies Shane just reviewed. This includes continued innovation, improved asset utilization, accelerated automation initiatives, and cost savings that will help us achieve another record-setting year.

First, we anticipate total company sales to be up low single digits compared to fiscal 2025. Our outlook for segment adjusted operating profit is as follows: for Packaged Meats, we anticipate adjusted operating profit in the range of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion; for Fresh Pork, we anticipate adjusted operating profit of between $200 million to $260 million; and for Hog Production, our anticipated adjusted operating profit range is $150 million to $200 million.

As a result, we anticipate total company adjusted operating profit in the range of $1.325 billion to $1.475 billion, reflecting broad-based performance. Please note that our outlook reflects 53 weeks of operations in 2026 and does not include the impact of the proposed Nathan's Famous acquisition and investment in the new processing facilities in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

Our targeted capital spend for 2026 will be in the range of $350 million to $450 million. In addition, subject to permitting and other approvals, we expect to invest up to $1.3 billion over the next three years to construct the new state-of-the-art packaged meats and fresh pork processing facility in Sioux Falls.

We currently anticipate groundbreaking to commence in the first half of 2027 and for operations to commence by the end of 2028. We'll provide more updates as we progress.

In summary, 2025 demonstrated that our key strategies are working. We expect 2026 to be another year of increased profitability as we continue to execute our core strategies.

Now I'll ask the operator to open up the call for Q&A. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, we ask that you please pick up your handset before pressing the keys.

If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we'll pause for just a moment to assemble our roster.

Today's first question comes from Megan Clapp with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Megan Clapp

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our questions.

I guess maybe to pick up Mark where you left off there, I wanted to start with the Packaged Meats outlook specifically. You talked about low single digit top line growth for the total company.

I guess, part A—

Operator

Did we lose you?

Megan Clapp

Oh, sorry. Can you still hear me?

Mark Hall

You cut out for a second though, Megan. I'll start over.

Megan Clapp

Packaged Meats outlook, wanted to ask about that. As we think about the top line guide, you talked about low single digit growth for the total company.

Should we be thinking about Packaged Meats kind of in that range? Then from a margin perspective, if we just kind of take the midpoint of your profit guidance, I think it does imply some modest margin expansion, but still kind of well below where you've been historically.

Mark, you kind of talked about this a little bit in your remarks, but maybe you can just help us understand a little bit more the puts and takes on margins as we think about the year ahead in terms of input cost inflation, continued mix benefits, and then anything you're taking into account on consumer demand given some of the macro factors? Thanks.

Mark Hall

Sure. Thanks, Megan, for the question.

Just on the top line, it's important to note that the low single digit revenue growth year-over-year includes $230 million of one-time inventory sales to the joint ventures in 2025 that won't repeat. That's about 150 basis points.

Then, consistent with the comments, we're looking for lower markets year-over-year with the USDA call for pork production to be up about 2.5% year-over-year, so that's going to have a ripple effect throughout the segments. I'll let Steve talk specifically to the top line on Packaged Meats.

Steve France

No, thank you for the question. I'd start out by saying that nothing has really changed with respect to our long-term outlook for Packaged Meats margins.

In the short term, as Mark had mentioned, consumers are definitely stretched, and I would say that the grocery and food service industry are seeing people spend less or trade down to less expensive items or items that deliver more value. Think about the fact that in 2025, our raw material costs were up over $525 million.

Although we do expect to see lower raw material costs, as Mark had mentioned, they're still going to be elevated versus historical norms. Now, despite some of these headwinds, we do believe that we are better positioned than most companies due to the family of brands and also the extensive product portfolio that we have.

As we have a very successful private label business, which does provide us the ability to capture those consumers as they move up and down those different price points. By doing that, when you think about the family of brands that we have and also the private label that we have, it actually helps to minimize some of the financial exposure that we have with consumers as they do move up and down that pricing spectrum.

Now, we are focused on building long-term value, but it's also about protecting our near-term profits. That means we are investing in our brands, we're funding our innovation that aligns with consumer trends, we also continue to shift, as Shane had mentioned during his opening comments, our mix from commodity items to higher-margin, value-added products.

Then we're also, of course, spending capital to expand on capacity where it supports our long-term growth and profitable growth. As Shane and Mark had mentioned, for our outlook for 2026, at this point, it really reflects the best view that we have today, and it's really guiding our Packaged Meats profit to that $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion, which we believe represents a healthy level of profitability in the face of really a cautious consumer spending, higher than normal raw material markets, and of course, there's a big unknown tied to the Iranian war that's currently going on.

At the end of the day, we still are confident in the outlook that we have, and we'll be able to address some of these challenges as they come at us throughout the year.

Megan Clapp

Great, that's super helpful. Thanks for all the detail.

Just to follow up on Hog Production, the guide for the year, $150 to $200, would suggest similar profitability to '25 at the midpoint. The futures curve at this point does seem to imply similar producer profit levels as well.

At the same time, you've talked extensively, and including in the remarks here, about the structural improvements you're seeing in your own business. Even talked about perhaps monitoring the herd health as a potential tailwind.

Maybe you can just help us understand a little bit more about what's embedded in the guide from an industry perspective and what you're seeing in terms of supply today, and versus your own internal cost improvements? Thanks.

Shane Smith

Megan, when you look at supply, we don't see right now any material level of expansion taking place outside of productivity and improvements in health. I think that's what the USDA is modeling in as well with their 2.5% increase.

As when you look at last year, the real true impacts of the health across the US industry really didn't become apparent until we were really into the second quarter. We're monitoring what's going on as a part of overall health and how that will impact meat in the back half of the year.

We do think that the guide that we issued this morning encompasses what we see today from the grain markets, from the changes in diesel fuel that we're seeing have an impact on things like freight and animal movements. We feel comfortable where we are.

We think it feels like we're back in somewhat of a normal cycle in that Q1, Q4 versus Q2, Q3 scenario. Of course, as we have different hedging strategies that we take advantage of throughout the year.

We're really comfortable with the guidance that we've issued today in Hog Production. To your point, we have seen some real structural changes in our business.

The genetics that we've talked about for the last couple of years, that really helped us in 2025. We saw weaned pig costs that was down probably 8% year-over-year, better feed initiatives and livability initiatives.

Our overall feed cost was down over 5%. We're seeing all of those things manifest in the earnings.

Again, I think we're really comfortable with the guidance with what we see today.

Megan Clapp

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today comes from Ben Theurer with Barclays.

Please go ahead.

Ben Theurer

Hi, yeah. Good morning, Shane, Mark, team.

Thanks very much for taking my question. Two quick ones.

As we look into the value chain as a whole, and we've kind of talked a little bit about hog production just now and before that about the packaged meats segment, picking up on what's in the middle in the fresh pork segment, clearly it was a call it probably potentially a somewhat challenging 2025 with all the trade restrictions, etc. As we move into 2026, and as you kind of pointed to the puts and takes, can you maybe elaborate a little bit more on the fresh pork business itself, what to think about, A, seasonality, and B, what are the more fresh-pork-specific risks and opportunities for 2026 in contrast to 2025?

That would be my first question.

Shane Smith

Ben, maybe I'll start and then hand over to Donovan. 2025, I'm really proud of how the Fresh Pork team executed.

We saw a $135 million degradation in the gross market spread, but yet our profits were only down about $17 million. We saw growth in retail and sales volumes.

I think that was 4% in sales and 5% in US retail channel volume, really leaning into the case-ready part of the business, but also looking at some of those alternative channels that we've discussed before with our pet food business and our pharmaceutical business. I would say the Fresh Pork team in the face of what was a really dynamic and ever-changing 2025 did an excellent job in executing that next-best-sale strategy.

Donovan, do you want to add to that?

Donovan Owens

I think Doug Shane, you said well in the opening. Yeah, 2026 for fresh was a challenging year.

I think it bled off with what Doug might be referring to as the tariffs started to have some impact. It had some impact on the year, but as we look at how we rebounded in our net realizable value efforts in 2025, they paid dividends.

We focused on our core strategy of looking at our fresh pork value-added business, as Shane mentioned earlier. Growing our fresh pork in that arena is going to be pivotal in 2026, as it was in 2025.

We're going to focus on our case-ready value-added pork, we're going to focus on our marinated offerings, we're also going to focus on our branded effort, branded fresh pork to tie into our packaged meats portfolio. We want to connect the dots, Doug, on all of our business.

I think that's been an opportunity for Smithfield for a while, and leverage our strength of our packaged meats business, and start putting our name on fresh pork portfolio of Smithfield, not just a brand that we have to fight with our competitors in the industry. Look forward to it, Ben.

Sorry for that, got your name mixed up, but nonetheless, 2026, I feel very confident that we will continue our strategy in Fresh Pork and look forward to improved results.

Ben Theurer

Awesome. Thank you.

Then real quick on the capacity expansion project, Sioux Falls, I think you said groundbreaking first half 2027, probably within the capex of that $1.3 billion, probably nothing yet to be contemplated for 2026. How should we think about the capex needs for that project, splitting that into what would be '27 and '28, and how do you think about just the general timeline if you could refresh me on that one?

That would be much appreciated. Thank you.

Mark Hall

Ben, as you indicated, there is no capital included in our estimate of 350 to 450 for the current year. There may be some incremental spending towards the end of the year, but the most significant portion of the spend will come in '27, '28, and a little bit of spillover into '29.

Anticipate groundbreaking, as you said, in early 2027. Hopefully to have the first products running down the line at the end of 2028.

I would say that the capital spending will be paced pretty evenly throughout the construction period.

Ben Theurer

Perfect. Thank you very much.

I'll pass it on.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today comes from Leah Jordan at Goldman Sachs.

Please go ahead.

Leah Jordan

Thank you. Good morning.

Yes, I wanted to follow up on Megan's question within Packaged Meats. Just seeing if you could provide more color on how we should think about the margin cadence in that segment as we go through the year, and any timing impacts we should keep in mind.

We're going to be lapping some different input costs as we go through the year, as well as potential shift in Easter and as well as the 53rd week. Thank you.

Steve France

Sure. Thanks for the question.

First, when you think about margin and also how that would potentially tie to promotions, what we're focused on is really on the quality merchandising side. It's really going after the quality of it versus quantity, because typically, if you're going after the quantity, you're going to run into some potential challenges from being unprofitable.

What we continue to see is improvement with our promoted volume sold as feature and display. When we do that, that by far is the most impactful promotional vehicle.

We'll continue with our current promotional strategy, although the reality is we're not just counting on promotions to drive our volume. We're actually very fortunate because our consumers are incredibly loyal, and our brands perform because people trust us to deliver that same great quality, flavor, value every time.

That consistency that we built over decades shows up in every product, and our customers and consumers know that they can count on us. The other part of your question was I guess consistency.

Reality is when you look at the first half and second half of the year, even though we have some seasonality between different items, between seasonal hams, we also have growing items during the summer, but the reality is when you look at first half and second half, they're basically fairly equal from a profitability standpoint.

Shane Smith

Leah, the only thing I would add there, and I think this was part of your question, we will see Easter a little earlier this year, there will be some Q1 impact that last year would have saw in Q2. The 53rd week actually will fall at the end of December, which would be post-Christmas for us.

Donovan Owens

Right. To Shane's point, a segment profit margin perspective, it's a little lighter in the first and fourth quarters because of that seasonal ham influence.

Leah Jordan

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Then just for a follow-up, I wanted to ask on the feed side, given lower feed costs were such a tailwind for you in Hog Production last year, and now we've got maybe some potential headwinds emerging. How are you planning for feed over the coming year?

What have you locked in so far? Just any color around assumptions within the guidance range and your flexibility there should we see some movement?

Thank you.

Shane Smith

On the feed side, Leah, we don't necessarily talk specifically about our hedge positions, but we do use corn and soybean meal contracts to help lock in when we think it's advantageous. I would tell you our overall feed strategy is more than just a grain.

It's being efficient in what we do. It's about the livability, the animals coming out that we've been putting grain into.

What I would tell you as it relates to feed for 2026, we are seeing some increases, and those spikes coincide with what we see taking place in the Middle East. I think we've been very in front of that, I would say, as far as our hedging strategies and how we think about locking in those grain costs as we go forward.

I think again, as I mentioned earlier, I think we're in a pretty good position as we look at 2026 from where we stand on corn. Keep in mind as we go through the year, the later in the year we get, that fed cost of corn really would show up in the back part of the year and into 2027.

I think from a 2026 standpoint, we're pretty well-positioned, and we think again that guidance that we issued encompasses that variability that we think we'll see in corn.

Leah Jordan

It's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today comes from Heather Jones at Vertical Group.

Please go ahead.

Heather Jones

Good morning, and thank you for the question. I wanted just to ask a quick clarifying question on the extra week.

I think you talked about expecting a low single digit volume increase on the packaged meats side in retail and food service. Wondering, is that adjusted for the extra week, or is it largely due to the extra week, we should expect most of that increase in Q4?

Steve France

That includes the extra week. The extra week is falling after the Christmas holiday this year, seasonally it's a softer week in the year as all the loading has gone on leading up to the holiday season.

From a volume and profitability standpoint, it punches below the average week's weight.

Heather Jones

You're expecting growth in the other quarters as well, not just the Q4?

Steve France

Correct.

Heather Jones

Okay. Then I just wanted to ask about the hog production outlook and just how y'all are thinking about the cadence with that 2.5% growth, cuz my understanding is that there was some expectation that there would be a easy comparison because of the PED and PRRS we had in '25, but PRRS has hit pretty hard again.

I think it's in the Upper Midwest. Was wondering, do you think the 2.5% takes that fully into effect?

How you're thinking about industry volumes year-on-year as the year progresses?

Shane Smith

If I understood your question correctly, we are hearing that same thing that you just mentioned that PRRS is really beginning to show up in the Midwest. Again, I think our guidance as we've issued this morning takes that into account both from what we expect to see on a seasonality basis between Q1 and Q4 and in the middle part of the years in Q2 and Q3.

We think from a disease standpoint, from a corn standpoint, transportation, that we've got those things embedded. Of course, as we move through the year, things will become much clearer, and we'll continue to update that guidance as we move through the year.

As it sits today, we feel really comfortable with that range that we printed this morning.

Heather Jones

Okay. Thank you so much for that.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today comes from Chris Downey at Bank of America.

Please go ahead.

Chris Downey

Hey, guys. This is Chris on for Pete.

Thanks for taking the question. You noted that acquiring Nathan's will eliminate licensing fees and allow you to capture the full retail margin with immediate earnings growth expected.

Can you quantify for us how much of the anticipated accretion comes from recapturing licensing economics versus incremental operating synergies, and how quickly those benefits should scale post-close?

Shane Smith

Chris, I'll begin and maybe I'll throw it over to Steve or Mark. We're really kind of limited on what we can say and what we can share.

Once we successfully close it, now we will be able to share a lot more detail on both our plans and some of the inherent numbers. As it sits today, we're really limited in what we can share until the deal actually closes.

Steve, do you want to add some things on Nathan's?

Steve France

I can just add a couple things. First and foremost, we're very excited on the packaged meats side of the business about Nathan's and what that represents for the future of Smithfield.

We know the Nathan's brand incredibly well. Obviously, we've been making products for years and selling it into the retail channel, there's virtually no integration risk, and that's a really big deal from an M&A standpoint.

Owning the brand, that would let us scale with utilizing our marketing, innovation, and also distribution across retail. Then ultimately, we'd have access to that food service channel, which again would be a big plus for the total Smithfield business.

I would like to share more about what we have planned, but at this point, since the deal's not finalized, I'm going to have to wait until the transaction closes. It's a great question, and we're very excited about the opportunity to purchase Nathan's.

Shane Smith

Chris, the only other thing I would add to that is we do believe that the transaction will be immediately accretive to our earnings, and I think you can look at Nathan's disclosures and really get to the crux of your question about what that licensing fee has been.

Chris Downey

Thanks. Appreciate the color.

I'll pass it on.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today comes from Max Gumport with BNP Paribas.

Please go ahead.

Max Gumport

Hey, thanks for the question. I was hoping to turn back to Sioux Falls.

Obviously, it's a very big investment for the company. I realize it's early, but any color or quantification you can provide on the benefits that you will receive?

It's replacing a very old plant. I think it's over 100 years old.

Maybe particularly on the cost side, what this means for efficiencies, automation, and cost savings? Thanks very much.

Shane Smith

Max, I'm really excited about this investment in Sioux Falls, and to your point, it's a large investment, but it's necessary. Sioux Falls is a key part of not only our fresh pork business, but also our packaged meats strategy in general.

That facility is over 100 years old, and as you can imagine, there's a lot of upkeep on that facility. Not only that, the footprint of that facility makes it very difficult to implement some of the automation and technology that we as a company are really rolling out across our footprint.

When this facility is done, it'll be the largest combined fresh pork and packaged meats facility in our system. We are anticipating a best-in-class facility that will just deliver significant efficiency gains to both fresh pork and packaged meats.

I'm really excited about the investment. We're anticipating it's going to have a really strong internal investment, and we expect to see those benefits in year one as we move to that optimal production level.

The interesting thing about Sioux Falls for us is it's a key part of the country. There's a tremendous culture of hog production in that part of the country.

From a vertical integration standpoint, that plant is less than 1% vertically integrated. This investment is not only good for us, it's good for South Dakota agriculture, the surrounding regions, and American agriculture in general.

Like I said in my opening comments, this investment really represents one of the largest single investments in American agriculture that I'm aware of. We as a company are extremely excited about the opportunity to do this.

I think it's going to be transformative for us as a company, and I think it's going to lead the way in the industry as it relates to cost structures, to competitiveness, and so I'm really looking forward to getting this project done.

Max Gumport

Great. Thanks very much for all that color.

Then on the first quarter, I realize we're essentially through the first quarter at this point already, I was hoping maybe for a bit more color on any initial thoughts on the sales and profit, realizing maybe you don't typically guide by quarter, but just given that there's essentially only a week left or so, it'd be a bit of color on how the first quarter's looking?

Mark Hall

It's really about continued execution of our strategies. Continue to improve that mix within the packaged meats side of the business, appealing to the consumer across that price spectrum, whether it's in our branded portfolio or in private label, and again, continuing optimization of our net realizable value within fresh pork.

We're seeing continued execution of our strategies, and we look forward to a solid first quarter. We'll be back in front of you in what, about 5 weeks, I think, to report on the first quarter, but things are shaping up.

Max Gumport

Okay. Thanks very much.

I'll pass it on.

Operator

Thank you. We have time for one more question today, and our final question comes from Saumya Jain with UBS.

Please go ahead.

Saumya Jain

Hi, thank you for squeezing me in and congrats on the quarter. A quick one.

With more capex spend, as you noted, in 2027 and onwards, would you see more upgrades or bolt-ons on current facilities or acquisitions of new ones, and what would drive one versus the other?

Mark Hall

Yeah. In terms of capex, again, the uptick in '27 and '28 is related to the Sioux Falls build-out.

Our guide for this year is really in that $350 to $450 million range. What you've seen is over the recent past, we've really worked significantly to optimize our network and improve our cost structure.

Most recently, we announced the closure of two leased facilities in Elizabeth, New Jersey and in Springfield, Massachusetts, and we're folding those into existing operations. That along with the transfer of the 3.8 million head that Shane mentioned in hog production to our joint venture partners, it really brings reduced requirements for maintenance capex across the network.

We're going to continue to invest about half of that capex figure on growth capital and about the other half on infrastructure, maintenance-type projects. We have plenty of opportunities to invest in growth capital, drive capacity expansions and cost-savings projects through automation.

Again, the 350 to 450 is all-encompassing on the base business, with incremental spend related to Sioux Falls in '27, '28, and '29.

Saumya Jain

Great. Thank you.

Then real quick, I noticed that the market share in the hot dogs packaged meats subcategory changed from third to fourth, I guess just wanted to understand what was driving that last quarter and how you view your acquisitions of Nathan's then changing the competitive dynamic in the space?

Steve France

No, it's a good question. As far as the total hot dog category, this is for the total industry, obviously, we're seeing some of the historic beef markets, which is resulting in consumers seeking value or gravitating down to private label or value tiers.

Now, keep in mind when I say that, that even when they gravitate down into private label, we have the ability to capture that consumer with some of the private label products that we do produce or some of the regional brands that fit that value tier. Now, if you look at total category, not just where we were, but for the total hot dog category for the US, in Q4, the sales were down 5.2%, and for total 2025, sales were down 4.8%.

Now, with all that said, despite some of the category declines and some of the consumer shifting, we were still able to grow our Nathan's volume share, unit share, and dollar share in Q4. We also increased our points of distribution by over 19% in 2025, and that's on the Nathan's brand.

That really highlights the strength of the brand and also consumer loyalty. Despite some of the category declines that we saw within the hot dog space, we're very comfortable with where we are from a Nathan's performance and also what we expect to see in 2026.

Saumya Jain

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer session.

I'd like to turn the conference back over to President and CEO Shane Smith for closing remarks.

Shane Smith

Thank you. Thanks to everyone who joined our call today.

I want to thank all of our Smithfield Foods employees for their exceptional execution in 2025. It truly was an outstanding year, and we're proud that our strategies drove record results.

We're not stopping here. Instead, we're constantly challenging ourselves to grow our business and continuously improve our operations.

I'm looking forward to speaking to you again when we report our first quarter results. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The conference is now concluded, and we thank you all for attending today's presentation.

You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.