Select Harvests Limited

Select Harvests Limited

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 28, 2026

David Surveyor

Welcome to our first-half 2026 results presentation. I'm David Surveyor, the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Select Harvests, and I'm joined today by Liam Nolan, our CFO.

Next slide, please. The first-half 2026 results presentation will be delivered via webcast on the link displayed, as advised to the ASX.

After Liam and I have delivered the presentation, there will be time for questions before we commence our investor roadshow. To ask a question, simply raise your hand via the button on your screen.

We'll progress you through the queue and you will be given the opportunity to ask your question. In the event that we have questions outstanding at the end of your allotted time, please contact Andrew Angus via the email on the screen and we'll deal with them subsequently.

This next slide simply outlines the disclaimer and basis of preparation of the information contained in this presentation. Slide.

In terms of the agenda, I'll start with a business update before handing over to Liam, who will discuss the financial results in detail. Following Liam, I'll close on strategy, transformation, and the key takeaways before we throw to take questions.

Next slide. One more.

Let's start with the results. Profit is increasing.

Over the last three full-year result cycles, Select Harvests has delivered a significant turnaround in profit performance. With a first-half 2026 NPAT of $26.6 million, and more importantly, an underlying NPAT of $29.1 million, this is a 33% increase in profit.

I note underlying NPAT is a preferred internal metric of true performance, with the definition provided in the appendix to the presentation. With the benefits of the second half still to come, we expect the full-year underlying and reported NPAT will be another substantial increase in profit for Select Harvests.

The company is increasing profitability whilst absorbing inflationary input cost pressures confronting every Australian business, as well as cost pressures unique to almonds. We'll talk more about these costs and our response during the presentation.

The revenue graph shows our growth, and together the two charts on this page tell the story clearly: we are now a different business and at a different scale, and we've operated with financial discipline. That is, capital investments that generate strong returns on investment and a continued focus on cost and debt.

The company is delivering performance across every key dimension of its operational metrics: record safety performance; a high-performing crop, possibly a record crop, driven by better farming practice; record capacity, with step changes in processing scale and efficiency; record price capture flowing directly to profit; and record external grower volumes. Importantly, today marks a return to rewarding shareholders.

This reflects the board's strategy and confidence. Last year, the company, through the CFO, presented the market with its capital allocation model, whereby we intend to pay between 25% to 50% of NPAT to shareholders each year in dividends.

Select Harvests will pay an interim fully franked dividend of 3.5 cents per share, and a decision on the size of the full-year dividend will be made at the completion of the financial year. The company is also announcing a share buyback of up to 10% of issued capital of 142 million shares.

The board's view is that the company is well undervalued, and so this is an effective allocation of capital. The company will on any given day make an assessment of the buying opportunity relative to our assessment of intrinsic value conservatively determined considering our future prospects.

Now if we move on to safety. People are critical to the success of Select Harvests.

Our TRIFR for the first half was its lowest ever at 3.7 injuries per million hours worked. We've demonstrated a sustained step change in safety performance, and this connects directly to the improvements we have seen in operating performance.

You cannot get great operating outcomes without great safety outcomes. We're achieving this by driving a clear sense of deep and felt safety leadership.

We're training people, we're strengthening safety accountability and behavioral ownership, and ensuring compliance. The Bradley curve shown on the right-hand side of this slide measures the maturity of the organization's safety culture, and we still have opportunity.

Our position on the curve evaluates how deeply safety is embedded in behaviors and attitudes across the workforce. As our safety culture matures, injuries and accidents will continue to decline and safety outcomes improve.

Let's move to talk about the almond macro. The global demand and supply dynamic remains positive, with tailwinds in place.

I think this is now well understood by the market, I won't drain every point on this slide. On the demand side, the total global almond demand growth continues with a CAGR of 5% to 7%.

Prices have been increasing as the long-term global almond economic macro has improved, and we continue to see this as recently as Wednesday this week when Stratamarkets reported another increase in price. It's worth noting that this is also supported by industry expert, Dr.

Abe Padilla from Spectrum Data Analytics, using his price elasticity model to forecast yet another 2.8% increase in price, or in other words, another 30 cents per kilogram. Unit costs are shown on the bottom left of the slide.

Australia has significant relative competitive advantage to the US, slightly more than 30%, this being a function of both operational costs and yield performance. The key point being, we have structural and durable cost advantage.

On the supply side, the US 2025 crop is 2.69 billion pounds, with inshell effectively complete and limited high-grade kernel available to sell. California represents approximately 80% of global supply.

Bearing almond acres had reduced by 15,000 acres, and this is the first drop in 31 years in California, whilst total farming area has reduced for four consecutive years and declined this year by some 47,000 acres. It should also not be missed, California now has an aging tree base.

Australia is about 10% of global supply, and forward volumes appear reasonably flat and likely naturally constrained by water access. There are varying estimates, but it's worth noting that 30% to 40% of Australian almonds will require replacing from 2030 onwards.

Select is about 1,000 to 1,500 acres of this over the next four to five years. The time to maturity for trees is six to seven years, the supply side cannot quickly respond to an uptick in demand.

US new tree plantings are low and there are no indications that would suggest a change in this direction of travel. In our view, despite inevitable fluctuations in price, we have a very positive almond macro.

We think that's sustainable over at least a seven-year horizon. We have relative competitive advantage in cost, and Select is very well-placed to benefit with good to medium-term pricing.

Moving to financial results. As previously mentioned, the company has delivered a first-half underlying net profit after tax of $29.1 million based on recognition of 75% of the crop.

The result is an improvement of 33% on the previous corresponding period. The transformation of Select Harvests has seen the earnings profile of the company both change shape and become more robust.

The second half of the year will see the benefits of external grower volumes, wholesales, and value-added sales contribute gains to the P&L. This year has also seen the company strategy and execution overcome industry cost pressures, and we expect profitability will meaningfully increase year-on-year.

Total production costs have been impacted by both uncontrollable cost increases and one-off costs, and we'll cover these later in the presentation. The crop size this year is positive as our horticultural strategy starts to pay off, with a forecast crop of some 29,500 tonnes and a crop range of 28,000 to 31,000 tonnes, despite inevitable crop losses from the weather.

We have 46% of the 2026 crop contracted, and the forecast price for the 2026 crop is $10.21. The pricing outlook remains positive, and I'll provide more detail later in the presentation.

Net debt for the first half of 2026 was broadly in line with our normal working capital cycle at $183 million, and we have continued to invest and allocate capital where there are strong returns. Cash flows in the second half will be stronger, and you will recall me saying at the 2025 results announcement, there was still considerable upside for cash generation and the gains resided within inventories and receivables.

This view remains, noting the delayed harvest this year. For the purpose of reinforcement, the company has confidence in performance and a fully franked first-half dividend of 3.5 cents per share will be paid, with a final dividend to be considered at the end of the year.

This being supported with a share buyback of up to 10% of our issued capital of 142 million shares. Importantly, following our most recent strategy workshop, the Select Harvests board has set a growth ambition of 65,000 tonnes and $700 million of revenue for the company.

This is the next step forward in the transformation of Select Harvests, and we'll talk about it further in the strategy section of this presentation. What I'd like to do now is provide some more detail on each of our key results drivers, specifically volume, price, and production costs.

Let's start with volume. The 2026 crop was grown with generally good growing conditions, although the heat to finish the crop did arrive somewhat later than normal.

The big challenge for the Australian crop was the massive amount of rain we experienced during harvest, with our wettest area being our Bunangil farm that received some 200 mils during February. The weather has notionally put a month's delay into processing and sales.

We are, however, thus far seeing outstanding yield results with a crop forecast of 29,500 tonnes, which is remarkable given the inevitable loss of some of the crop from the rain. It's almost certain our program would have delivered, and still might deliver, a record crop but for the weather.

For several years, the company has talked about its new horticultural strategy and the goal of increasing yield. We said it would take several full crop years for the yield gains to appear, and it looks like the strategy is delivering results ahead of schedule.

We're currently processing our Nonpareil crop and have not yet commenced processing our pollinator varieties. In terms of discerning crop size, the process this year is no different to prior years.

Whilst it's a large crop, there is always some uncertainty around total crop size at the first-half results, and hence we provide a range. Liam can talk the detail of that.

There's naturally been speculation about the quality of the crop given the wet weather. Thus far, we are seeing excellent levels of inshell and almond quality is high: to date, an 8% increase.

This reflects the work we have done at the Carina West processing facility with Optimus phase three. This level of inshell is positive for both price—it delivers an extra $1 per kilo for inshell versus kernel at current prices—and it's also positive for cash velocity.

We do, however, expect to see a wider range of quality this year as a result of the wet crop. It should, however, not be missed: the company accelerated harvest to effectively a 24/7 operation, albeit at a cost, to protect the crop quality.

The company also had the foresight to invest to manage for these types of events, and we are using our new $14 million crop dryer. We have the biggest drying capacity in Australia, and this will limit damage and give us some quality advantage.

The expected lower quality mix profile is already reflected in our forecast market price. Now, as committed, we have delivered a major increase in external grower volumes.

Our expanded capacity is being filled with these increased volumes that deliver substantive profit value at about $1 per kilogram. Our proposition is compelling as growers recognize our ability to get them better market prices, better yields for their crop, and better operational capability.

That is, they get their crop off the farm and onto our stock pads fast, and if necessary, dry their crop to protect their earnings, and we get them faster cash. The 15,400 tonnes of contracted external grower volume is currently sitting on Select Harvests' stock pad, and as it's processed in the second half, it will contribute to revenue and earnings.

We continue to attract and add new external growers to Select Harvests. Next slide, please.

Moving on to market price. Last year, we gave the first glimpse of Select's work in getting a price premium for our products.

The top chart shows our invoiced price performance against Stratamarkets, which is a industry-recognized published price index. The data is based on price at the time of signing a contract, the FX rate of the day, and an adjustment for tariffs.

Far this year, on invoiced sales, Select has taken a global commodity and delivered a price premium over the global market price of 6%. From a business perspective, the critical issue is the direction of travel, and what gives me great heart is the premium has grown from the 2.4% the last time I shared this chart at the end of 2025.

I think there's now enough evidence to state Select Harvests uniquely brings leverage to every horticultural and processing improvement, and the leverage flows directly to the bottom line. Now the California crop receipts for 2025 at 2.69 billion pounds were within our forecast range, and we see an implied carryout of some 480 to 520 million pounds at the end of the California crop year.

The most recent Californian bloom had untrying conditions with wet and cool weather. We think the current 2026 crop size estimates, as released by Terra Nova, there's the Ag-Wise, Formosa, Wonderful forecast, the Blue Diamond forecast, and of course, the US subjective forecast, the range across these is from 2.64 to 2.7 billion pounds, and we think this seems like a reasonable number.

With these crop volume forecasts, we have seen prices increase through April and May, and it is Select's view there will be more price to come. Demand growth is being driven by China, India, and Southeast Asia, underpinned by increasing health awareness.

With China and India expected to double consumption by 2030, we see long-term demand and core organic growth for Select Harvests. Select has 77% of the 2026 crop hedged at 65.83 cents, and it remains our prognosis, while prices may show fluctuation, we will see prices continue an upward trajectory over time, subject of course to FX.

Next slide, please. Let's talk about production costs.

Total production costs is the cost of growing, harvesting, and processing. Now, as we have done for the last several years, we normalize our cost per kilo to a 29,000-tonne crop so you have effective comparative data.

After three years of flat costs, this year you can see an increase in both inflationary and uncontrollable costs to $7.33 per kilogram. We had previously signaled to shareholders at the November annual results and the February AGM that there is a shift in our cost base of up to $20 million from items such as water, bees, power, and labor.

Now that number has been compounded by one-off costs for the Middle East and wet weather. To manage this, we committed to two actions.

The first being to remain tight on the costs that we can control, and these have reduced by 14 cents per kilogram and are already contained within the $7.33 shown on the chart. Now we're not standing still on costs and have already identified the next $10 million of cost savings to be delivered over a couple of years.

These savings come from a program of work that's been driven from the ground up, with our people identifying waste and costs that can be reduced. Each initiative, as per normal, is to be mapped to a project with profit and cash impacts and timelines, all managed in our project management office, with the same executional cadence as been delivered over the last three years.

The second commitment recognized the non-compressibility of some costs, and hence we've committed to deliver on other actions that expand margin. Two examples being our investment in kernel recovery and investment in shakers, and these are captured in our PMO.

Having covered off on the key drivers, I think I'll now hand over to Liam to discuss the financial results in detail. You will give him some forgiveness, he has a unfortunate flu.

Liam Nolan

Thank you, David. I'll step through the following areas: first, the drivers of earnings; second, capital management and shareholder returns; and finally, cash flow and the balance sheet.

As you'll see, the first half reflects strong underlying operating performance, with the full-year earnings to benefit in the second half from external grower volumes and an uplift in value-add margins. Earnings growth in the first half has been driven by recognition of 75% of the estimated crop profit.

In determining the crop size estimate, we've captured data points from all regions to form a view of the most likely outcome. As David mentioned, management has formed an estimated range of 28 to 31,000 metric tonnes.

Crop profit has increased substantially, reflecting improved yields, stronger orchard performance, and our sales team achieving a market price premium. These results are all linked to strong strategy execution: specifically, investments we've we've made in horticulture program, investment in processing, specifically kernel recovery and Optimus 3, which are now delivering tangible results in terms of both volume and quality.

Our sales premium is coming from being in-market, understanding our customers, and delivering measurable outcomes. Against that, we've seen higher production costs.

As David mentioned, these are largely in line with what we've previously guided, namely across water, fertilizer, pollination, plus the impact of wet harvest. The wet harvest alone contributed approximately $6.9 million of additional costs in the half, primarily in labor as we sought to expedite harvest, and also the additional cost of drying.

Important point is the shape of earnings for the full year. The earnings profile has now materially shifted, with a much stronger weighting to the second half.

This reflects the timing and scale of external grower volumes, going from 7,329 metric tonnes in 2025 to 15,400 metric tonnes in 2026; the uplift in contribution from value-add sales, where we see full-year benefit of pricing and operational margin enhancements; and finally, the seasonality of wholesales. While we've got a really strong first-half result, it should be noted that we expect to see a significant increase in second-half earnings compared to 2025.

Turning now to capital management. Over the last three years, our focus has been very deliberate: strengthening the balance sheet and maintaining capital discipline.

We've largely achieved that, and as a result, we're moving to the next phase of capital management, which is balancing three priorities: maintaining a strong balance sheet, continuing to invest in growth, and returning to share- capital to shareholders. Importantly, these are not competing priorities.

The business is now in a position where it can do all three. You'll see that reflected in both the dividend and the buyback we've announced.

Starting with dividends. We're re- we're reinstating dividends for the first time since February 2023.

Our policy is to distribute between 25 to 50% of net profit after tax, and for the half, we've declared a fully franked interim dividend of 3.5 cents per share. We've approx- approximately $18 million of franking credits available, which supports franking distributions through to 2028.

We've also announced an on-market share buyback of up to 10% of issued capital. The rationale is straightforward: we believe the current share price does not reflect the intrinsic value of the business, and we have the capacity to return capital to sharehold- the shareholders.

The buyback gives us a flexible mechanism to return capital where we see value, while still maintaining optionality. It will be conducted over a 12-month period, it will be opportunistic, and it will sit alongside investment in the business.

This is a balanced capital manager- management approach, supporting shareholder returns without compromising growth or balance sheet strength. Turning now to our balance sheet, and the headline here is that Select Harvests is in a strong financial position to support both growth and shareholder returns.

Net debt at the half sits at $182.6 million, which reflects the normal seasonal work- working capital cycle, as you'd expect at this point of the year, with crop sales still to come through. Importantly, we expect this to reduce materially through the second half as sales sales cash flows come through.

April and May are already tracking towards record sales volumes, we're confident in that trajectory. On on the on the point of debt: firstly, it remains well within our facility limits—we have total facilities of $300 million; second, it's also important to note that the seasonal peak is now behind us and we expect debt to reduce in the second half as inventory is converted to cash; and third, our balance sheet re- remains strong and flexible, supporting both growth, investment, and capital returns.

It's worth noting that further due to the the crop and delay in harvest, we anticipate having a higher carryover into 2027. This means that along with with finishing 2026 with a strong debt profile, we will also benefit from 2026 crop sales into 2027.

This has supports sustained lower debt through 2027, and another reason we have confidence in our balance sheet. All debt covenants were comfortably met at 31st of March, and we forecast continued compliance over the next 12 months.

When you consider the underlying asset base of the business, the balance sheet is not just solid, it provides a strong foundation for capital returns, which is why the board has declared a fully franked interim dividend and an on-market buyback. Subsequent to the half, we've also secured an additional $60 million of committed debt capacity on favorable pricing terms and a five-year tenor.

This increases total debt facilities to $300 million and delivers three key benefits. First, it reduces refinancing risk by increasing available headroom and extending our debt maturity profile.

Second, it reduces the overall cost of debt, reflecting improved pricing achieved in the current environment. Third, it enhances flexibility, ensuring we have capacity to manage potential volatility and also growth.

The additional facility increases the average tenor of the debt portfolio from 2.7 to 3.3 years, which is meaningful which is a meaningful improvement in the maturity profile. Now this is a proactive step to further strength- strengthen balance sheet, providing certainty and flexibility as we execute on our growth strategy.

Looking now to cash flow. The first cash first-half cash flow is broadly in line with our expectations, but impacted by higher wet harvest costs and lower crop carryover from the prior year.

The success of our faster-to-cash initiatives implemented during 2025 are expected to again deliver in 2026, with the company focused on further optimizing our sales and operations planning. On the investing side, cash outflows are higher, but this is deliberate.

We've invested in Optimus phase three, kernel recovery, crop drying capability, and new harvest equipment. These are all high-return, product-enhancing investments.

Looking forward to the we expect stronger operating cash flow in the second half, driven by the higher sales volumes, improved planning and execution, and the contribution from the non-crop earnings. Similar to earnings, cash flow is also weighted to the second half.

David, might move to you to talk about the strategy and transformation.

David Surveyor

Thanks, Liam. Next slide, please.

The company transformation continues to translate into tangible operating results. We started with reset in 2023, moving through stabilization, capacity build, and now being growth-ready.

The benefits are evident across profitability, operational metrics, and customer experience. The historic view of Select has been based on profit in horticulture, specifically this year's crop size times this year's sale price less costs.

This framing of Select Harvests is now too narrow and numerically incomplete. The company strategy is now generating returns by broadening value creation across its core functional streams.

This slide gives you a segmented view of where Select makes money across horticulture, processing, and sales. Certainly, value is created through growing almonds, however, it's also being leveraged by the rest of our business model such that revenue has more than doubled, profit is growing, and ROC is increasing.

Next slide. As we move the conversation to executing strategy across strategic pillars, the company now has a demonstrated track record of delivering.

With respect to our pillar for sustainably greater almonds, the horticulture strategy for Select's farms are delivering volume and quality, with a possible record crop to be recorded for 2026. Now we have better fertilizer, water, and hygiene practices, and the relative health of the trees is obvious as you drive the highways.

The next crop year is the first full complete year of the horticultural program. With excellent tree health, we create the capacity for bigger crops.

We're excited about the future and specifically the 2027 crop size. Harvest practices are improved.

We are timing harvest to maximize nut growth and minimize the impact of insects. We are running faster and shifting our harvest towards 24/7 operation to optimize the quality.

We've also invested in new kit to maximize the yield and minimize the number of nuts left on the tree. In terms of portfolio management, it's also worth noting the pending sale of various Australian almond assets.

The market should not assume the Select Harvests board views all existing leases as being something we would extend past current dates. You've seen this in action with Select doing an early handback of 300 hectares of the Yilga farm.

As we've already covered, our external growers proposition is compelling. We have record external supply and we are growing rapidly.

From a processing perspective, you have seen a shift scale. Optimus 1 is completed.

It added 10,000 tonnes, taking us from 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes of capacity. Optimus 2 is complete.

It added a further 10,000 tonnes, taking us from 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes of capacity. We discovered Optimus 3 during Optimus 2, and that has added another 5,000 tonnes to create a total of 55,000 tonnes of capacity.

Just as importantly, it has allowed us to step change and increase inshell by what looks to be approximately 8% on high-quality crop. In terms of maximizing returns from the crop, the gains around sales and logistics velocity are apparent and directly support our cash flow.

We said there was more to gain from inventory and receivables, and we're now going after this promise. From a margin perspective, we continue to gain through our pricing disciplines, as you saw on the earlier slide, and our ability to tailor quality grades directly to customer requirements.

Now I'll cover step-out growth on a different slide, but I'd like to talk about our enabling pillar. The people capability build continues, having top-graded skills across finance, HR, and IT.

Our procurement capability is building with the function centralized. We've commenced the automation of processes such as connecting our Empex export documentation to our core ERP.

We have data and analytics rolling out with Power BI, and selective use of AI. By way of example, we are re-creating our price premium management tool, it's called the Upside Tracking Tool, and that's moving into our BI system to further enhance capability.

Next slide, please. Now the purpose of this slide is really to try and bring to life the shifts we've made across the company.

The page lists four key projects. It shows you how our investment aligns to our strategic pillars, and in many cases, touches several of them at once.

We're consciously investing to synchronize the business across almond supply, processing capacity, and sales to maximize the company return. The shaker investments drive horticultural yields to substantially increase almond supply, but they also lower cost to operate.

The crop dryer maximizes quality so we maximize price and returns from the crop, but the crop dryer is also attractive to external growers to substantially increase almond supply and processing margins. Optimus 1, 2, and 3 ensure leadership in processing scale and efficiency.

They provide low-cost production, but also high quality, being low chip and low scratched almonds. It increases capacity to process both our own yield improvements and attracts external growers and maximize the return.

Kernel recovery increases our yield and substantially increases almond supply. In doing this, it also increases the attraction of Select Harvests to external growers and opens up new returns.

The point is, we're using our capital allocation to generate growth aligned to our strategic pillars. Next slide, please.

In terms of step-out growth, the company has effectively doubled in size over the last three years. The Select Harvests board has now set the next series of targets, with the aim of increasing Select Harvests to 65,000 tonnes and $700 million of revenue by 2030, from today's base of being approximately a 45,000-tonne business.

The program takes the existing strategy and benefits for shareholders and moves them to the next logical scale. The substantially greater almonds will come from, firstly, the first or another crank on the wheel on the horticultural strategy to drive yields much higher on a per-acre basis.

Secondly, we think there's the opportunity to improve the productive capacity of our existing assets, and to this end, Select Harvests has appointed a capital projects manager to lead this part of our portfolio. Thirdly, through the continued acceleration of external grower volumes.

We think our value proposition is compelling. We will be at least 20,000 tonnes next year.

In fact, we would have to slow down to achieve that target. From a leadership in processing, there are two key activities.

The first is we have identified a path to further increase plant capacity from 55,000 to 65,000 tonnes. The second is to speed up, or debottleneck, sorting and packing so that it runs at the same speed as our 55,000-tonne and then 65,000-tonne primary processing front end.

This will dramatically reduce working capital. It will further improve the customer experience, and it will increase our cash position.

Both of these improvements repeat the themes of low-cost capital spends and fast paybacks. From the perspective of maximizing returns from the crop, we think our model is scalable and leverages higher upside margins.

It will give more capability to maximize price. The increased volume will also unlock a faster supply chain and speed order to cash.

Critically, the program of work delivers margin growth. The achievement of 65,000 tonnes will be a combination of Select Harvests volumes and external grower volumes, and is well within our capability with only targeted investment.

Whilst this slide notes Select has some M&A capacity, you should explicitly not assume this means the company is about to undertake any acquisitions. The Select Harvests board is clear: financial discipline is not negotiable.

We move now to our PMO. We continue to use the project management office to drive outcomes within the business.

The PMO has in many respects never been more important. You can see on the slide some $18 million on the right-hand side of inflationary costs, and another $6.9 million of one-off costs that we expect will not be repeated.

Without our various business initiatives, the starting point for Select's profit would have been back by $25 million this year. You can see the H1 gains do not completely recover the issues, and we're still at a negative $3 million.

There's high certainty in the second-half gains, but the reality is it takes until the second half for the ship to right itself. As I previously noted, the company has found another $10 million of cost savings to be delivered over the next couple of years, and these will be added to our PMO.

I think as you look at Select Harvests, what you see is a company that is now a safer company. The company is in good shape, with underlying profitability increasing.

The company is keen to reward shareholders through both a fully franked dividend and a share buyback. You can see the capacity to fund this as our working capital turns to cash.

The board has set a new ambition for growth that logically leverages the strategy, is deliverable, and will increase profitability. The transformation strategy has created for Select Harvests a wider earnings profile from horticulture, processing, and sales that is more robust, and this will flow through second-half outcomes.

All of the company's key operating metrics are performing and capable of managing the pressures of inflation and wet weather. Select's approach to financial discipline on capital, cost, and debt is supporting the balance sheet.

On that note, thank you, and I'll hand back to Andrew to coordinate any questions.

Andrew Angus

Thanks, David. We've got a bunch of questions here, I'll head to that.

First up, we have Apoorv Sehgal from Jarden. Apoorv, can you hear me?

Apoorv Sehgal

Hey, good day, Andrew and team. Can you hear me?

Andrew Angus

Perfectly.

David Surveyor

Got you.

Apoorv Sehgal

Awesome. Okay.

Thanks. First question, just on the 28 to 31,000 metric tonne crop production range, or midpoint of 29 and a half, a couple of questions.

The wet harvest recently, can you quantify the tonnage impact that may have had, if any? Then secondly, it's a reasonably wide range.

Can you just talk to the low case and the upside case scenario there? What needs to happen for either 28,000 or 31,000 being realized?

Do you see that upper end being more probable than the lower end?

Liam Nolan

Let me have a go at this. In terms of the wet harvest, it is difficult to quantify exactly how much we've lost at this point in time.

We do know there was absolutely loss that's come through from some of the rain events, particularly we talked about Bunangil, where the rain was so intense it really had nuts being destroyed and flow onto the road. We know that we've experienced our kernel loss during that.

In terms of the range, we'd need to see for the top range, we'd hope to see continued numbers coming through like they're coming through. That's probably the best we can sort of talk to in that.

It is uncertain. We do the same process each year in terms of how we estimate the crop.

At this point, we don't have pollinators. We haven't processed any pollinators.

Our assumptions are that we're going to continue to see strong results from the pollinators. If they were to outperform, then we'd see the top end range, and if they weren't to outperform, we'd see at the lower range.

Apoorv Sehgal

Okay. The 2% to 3% yield improvement from the kernel recovery line, is that benefit already reflected in the midpoint of that volume guidance?

Liam Nolan

Yes, that's reflected in those numbers. Yes, at the midpoint.

Yep.

Apoorv Sehgal

Yep. Cool.

Just on costs, if I look at '26, the almond production costs are around $220 million. Can you just talk to the FY '27 cost outlook as well?

Just because, water, fertilizer, freight costs, they've all moved a fair bit higher in recent months. Assuming current rates kind of hold, I presume there's an annualization kind of impact there that flows through in FY '27.

Then I guess on the flip side, I'm just thinking you've got $7 million of wet harvest costs as well this year, which theoretically unwind in FY '27. Net-net, if normally for Select Harvests, we'd assume a low single-digit percentage sort of cost increase in most years, FY '27 though, how should we think about that in the context of the annualization of some of the recent cost headwinds coming through, but then also the unwind of the wet harvest costs?

Liam Nolan

You're spot on in terms of the wet harvest costs. All things being equal, we wouldn't expect those to occur, but still obviously subject to the weather in 2027.

In terms of the annualization, I wouldn't expect any further incremental increase based on an annualization. It's not necessarily first-half, second-half weighted.

All our crop growing costs are essentially incurred in that first half, there would be just a normal CPI adjustment is where I'd expect it to go, nothing abnormal at this point.

Apoorv Sehgal

Effectively, you grow your '26 costs by CPI, but you take off your 7 million bucks for the wet harvest one-off? Then

Liam Nolan

we've got some cost-out initiatives as well that we're working through.

Apoorv Sehgal

Okay. No, that sounds reasonably positive.

Just one final one, again, probably for you, Liam. Just on the almond price of $10.21 a kilo that you've indicated, I may have missed on the call.

Did you say 77% is hedged at 65.83 cents, is that right?

David Surveyor

Yes, I did say that. Yes.

Apoorv Sehgal

Yeah. The remaining 23% that's unhedged, at what rate are you assuming that's going to be in your model?

David Surveyor

We have a very clear policy, a treasury policy, for the way that we go about managing FX. That is based on taking the lowest possible risk position that we can.

We're an almond growing and selling company, we don't try and be an FX trading company. We lock in a rate of a proportion of our crop increasingly as we have certainty about the crop size.

We're absolutely sitting within policy for doing that, and we'll take out the next balance of it over the coming period. If you locked in today, you'll be at the sort of 71 to 72 cents range on the stuff that you'd lock in now, and that would probably give you an average that'll be around the 67s over the course for the total.

Liam Nolan

Which is used for our $10.21.

Apoorv Sehgal

Mhm. Awesome.

Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

Andrew Angus

Great. Next question that we've got is Josh Kannourakis from Barrenjoey.

David Surveyor

Good morning, Josh.

Josh Kannourakis

Hi, David, Liam. Thanks for taking my calls, and Andrew.

Questions, just a couple from me. Just firstly, just understanding around first-half, second-half, because it is a bit different from what has historically been the case.

Just so I understand, all the almond crop is clear, as you mentioned, the third party is sitting on the pad, so that all comes through and you mentioned the sort of dollar-per-kilo rate. In terms of hull, if we looked back a year or two where the sort of similar levels, hull was 50,000, doing $200 or so per tonne.

How should we sort of think about hull into the second half, and also some of the value-added unwind, because I imagine you get a pretty big delta on that as well?

David Surveyor

It's a good point. We don't specifically break out the various bits of our profit streamer at that level of detail, but to try and give you some steer, clearly, our hull volume will be increased because our processing volume's increased.

The value of hull continues to trade at pretty high levels over the last few years, and a quick Google search would probably give you a good sense of what that number is.

Josh Kannourakis

Got it. Cool.

I think a couple of years ago, it was almost 10 million bucks or something, yep, okay, that's good. Then second point, just around the value-added stuff.

Obviously, you had some headwinds, I guess, in previous years because of the timing of the cost, because obviously the cost reflects where you are, because of some of those things you've probably got a more favorable backdrop there as well. I'm just trying to reconcile.

You've obviously got a slight loss in the first half there from that component, but obviously, the net of that would unwind into the second half. Is there anything else you can say on that, and also just in terms of maybe some of the other initiatives you're doing around the value-added side of things on the sales elements as well?

Liam Nolan

Sure. The non-crop loss, yes, for the first half was roughly about $4 million.

We expect that to turn around, and that's driven by the three elements that really we've touched on. First, we've talked about wholesales, and that's really largely timing.

We achieve all those in the second half, and volume as well, a higher number. You talk about the value-add, this year we'll see the full-year benefit of price coming through.

We had some contracts that they had a lag into the second half, we'll see an uplift in the second half. We've also had some operational improvements in our value-added facility, which is really driving some substantial loss reduction and yield improvements in that part of our line.

That's been really encouraging, and we expect to see the benefits of that in the second half.

Josh Kannourakis

That's great. Then just in terms of some of the longer-term guidance you mentioned around the 65,000 tonnes, I imagine in a year like this where people have been going through a lot of issues and reductions in quality and volume because of the wet harvest, I imagine the dryer is getting a lot of attention.

Can you fulfill the capacity? Can you sort of fulfill, I guess, the demand side of that equation as well moving into next year?

I think, David, you said north of 20,000 tonnes is likely. Just remind us the capacity and then some of the additional unlocks you've got planned and how we should think about that scaling into '27 and beyond?

David Surveyor

Certainly, as it relates to the processing capacity, specifically in drying, we can dry about 1,200 tonnes a day through our dryer, and if we topped out that capacity, we actually have some other mechanisms that we run A-frames and things on the ground that allows to actually increase our drying capacity. We've got some flexibility in being able to manage for an increasing supply.

But 1,200 tonnes, you can do the math quickly, it gets you through 20,000 tonnes of the external growers takes 10 days or so. That reflects the rate of things that are coming through obviously when various farmers are dropping off products.

We're pretty comfortable around our ability and capacity for drying capacity. The unlocks to get you from 55 to 65,000, it's not one issue, but it's a series of projects and a lot of them come to things that relate to how do we change the exit speeds of things out of our main processing parts of the plant.

I'll give you an example: the speed at which we exit the hull and shell to our hull and shell piles so that we can sell that for cattle feed and other applications, if we can speed that up, that allows us to speed up the front end of the processing part of the plant. We've got a series of those sorts of small debottlenecking pieces that we need to do that allows us to actually change the pace of the plant and get to the 65,000.

Josh Kannourakis

That's great. Thanks, guys.

I'll pass it on to someone else. Appreciate it.

Thanks,

Andrew Angus

Josh. David, next one we've got is Ron Shamgar from Tamim Asset Management.

Ron, over to you.

Ron Shamgar

Hi, guys. Good result.

Just a couple of questions. In terms of the external grower harvesting and processing, sort of what's the margin there?

David Surveyor

The margin on that's about $1 per

Ron Shamgar

kilogram. Yep.

Okay. Net debt is around 180 180 at the moment.

What do you expect sort of ballpark on June 30?

Liam Nolan

Just we don't do a June 30, we've got a

Ron Shamgar

Sorry, yeah.

Liam Nolan

30 September, yes. Look, I think broadly in line with 2025 so is where we're tracking.

Just as a reminder, we are tracking roughly a month behind in terms of our the late and wet harvest. That's one thing just to note around that.

The second thing is we've made a decision to bring forward into 2026 some expenditure relating to the 2027 crop. We've been able to secure fertilizer, which is really important in this environment.

There's a shortage of that, and so but to do that, we've had to pre-buy that, so that's impacting our 2026 cash flow of roughly about $12 or $13 million. This year will also be impacted by dividend and buyback, which is probably just a bridge to why it isn't a slight

David Surveyor

Why it's not going down further.

Liam Nolan

Why it's not going down further, yeah. Because

David Surveyor

otherwise, we would have expected a lower fully debt position than the sort of similar number to last year, which is in that sort of 79 79, $80 million. The fertilizer one, just to put one more line of color on that: we had all of our fertilizer booked and organized, and then, of course, the Middle East war came along and we received a series of force majeure issues that came towards us.

Clearly, having fertilizer is critical to ensuring the forward-facing yields of the company and continuing our horticultural program, we found a solution to that problem. It has meant that we have to part with the cash earlier than we otherwise would have, and hence that puts a little bit of drag on our full-year cash position.

Ron Shamgar

Yeah. Okay.

Similar to FY '25 September 30th, but you're also including some buyback and dividend

David Surveyor

Correct.

Ron Shamgar

spend. Yep.

Okay. Then last question is, obviously, you come out with the 2030 sort of target.

The business sort of seems to be doing well. You got industry tailwinds.

Why are you leaving now?

David Surveyor

Why am I leaving?

Ron Shamgar

Why have you resigned? Why not stay for the good years?

David Surveyor

Yes. Look, I think the answer to that is, clearly, it's my view that Select is a great company.

I think it's got some great opportunities ahead of it, and the company is trying to lay those out with that growth path. By the way, I think the company has got a very good board.

I'm supportive of what they're doing and where they're going, and I've got great relationships with them. There are no issues related to Select Harvests as to why I would be departing.

My departure really relates to a specific opportunity that sits in front of me and things that are good for the future of my family.

Ron Shamgar

Okay. Thank you.

Andrew Angus

Thanks, Ron. Next question we've got is from Paul Jensz of PAC Partners.

Paul? Just quickly, are you there?

Paul Jensz

I'm here. First quick one is just on the percentage of the almond crop to be sold from here.

Maybe Liam would be the one to ask that. It looks as though it's 25% from what David said, but I just want that confirmed.

David Surveyor

We're 46% contracted at the moment. Sorry, Liam,

Liam Nolan

go ahead. No, you go.

David Surveyor

No, you finish.

Liam Nolan

Yeah, 46% contracted, Paul, at this stage,

Paul Jensz

yeah, the

Liam Nolan

math is we've got 54 to go.

Paul Jensz

All right. Good.

When we do our first-half, second-half split, we're putting 54% into the second-half number, correct?

Liam Nolan

In terms of what? No.

Paul Jensz

No. That's the number I'm after, right?

Because it looks as though you were trying to point us to saying 25%

David Surveyor

Yeah.

Paul Jensz

into the second half.

David Surveyor

There's two answers to this question. From a profit perspective, you've got 75% of the crop profit in the first half, 25% of it in the back half.

Paul Jensz

Yep.

David Surveyor

In the second half, profit-wise, you need to add the profitability of the external processing, the profitability of value-add, and the profitability of all of our wholesales. That's at a profit split, that's the way that worked.

At a cash split, the majority of the cash will come in, and we've got this sort of seasonal profile that has our debt profile increased in the first half as we invest to grow the crop, and in the second half, you'll see that come down substantially. Similar to that last question, we'll get down to close to the sort of last year sort of numbers, that sort of $79 to $80 million number, and that's because with the physical selling and invoicing and then cash collection is happening in the second half of the year.

Okay.

Paul Jensz

Just inside that then, the cost base for that 75% that we're saying is sold in the first half, with your guidance, we've got to, I suppose, make an assessment of lowering that or raising that margin, lowering that margin a bit because we haven't got the benefit of the hull and all of the extra benefits that lower your cost to that $7.57, correct?

Liam Nolan

That's not in the first-half results. Paul, if I just take you through just the accounting rules, essentially, what we do for the first half is we create an estimate of our crop profit, which is our estimated sell price, our estimated costs to produce the crop, and then by the size of the crop, which gives us an estimated crop profit, which I think it's on the financial summary slide.

We take 75% of that number and book it to profit. We book that in the first half, 25% in the second half.

In the second half, we expect to get all the gains from the third-party processing, which is be booked in the second half, along with the wholesales, which are all timing-phased in that second half. Also, we flagged an uplift in our value-added margins in that second half as well.

Paul Jensz

All right. Can you hazard an estimate for your full-year guidance then?

Liam Nolan

We don't put out a specific number for the full-year guidance, Paul, no.

Paul Jensz

Okay. You're keeping us in a job, that's good.

Second is on just the cost base versus the Californian cost base, which is pointing to the medium term. Your confidence as a team of that being a sustainable difference going forward?

David Surveyor

Very confident about it. I think there's no there's no reason We don't see every any evidence that would support an increase in yield through So, I was really saying that the cost the difference is a function of both yield and actual operational cost.

If I start with the yield piece, is that there there's no evidence to suggest that yields are going to increase out of California. In fact, one of the challenges that they still have and there is variability, but you've got some farmers putting on a full fertilizer and water and hygiene practice model, and some doing a greatly discounted one because they have not been making money for a period of time.

You've got that overlay on yield, and the other overlay that you have on yield, which is very unquantifiable, is that they talk in California about as their tree age as their trees tend to age, they tend to see a drop-off in the yield of those trees. We don't see that when we look at Select Harvests, by the way, when we look at our tree profiles.

We've got some trees that are old and still yield very, very well. Anyway, you've got a yield issue.

Then when you look at the cost base drivers, we don't see anything that would materially drive a shift in that. In fact, again, the pressures for things like water in the US continue.

There's nothing that would lead me to think that there's going to be a change in the cost relativity at a dollar at a dollar operational cost level. Then

Paul Jensz

the replanting cost, just a final question for you, maybe, David, or Liam, is what replant cost estimate does Select have for both Select and California? Because that would be, in addition, I would imagine, to those numbers.

David Surveyor

I think first, for California, we don't have a particular view on the amount that's going to be replanted. In fact, we expect that the

Paul Jensz

Maybe I can reframe it, David. Sorry.

To maintain that acreage of the 1.3 million acres or so, not increasing, but as the trees mature, have you got that factored into the 9.69, or do you think that's in addition, as I think it is?

David Surveyor

What's your 9.69, sorry? Just lost

Paul Jensz

In your slide seven, you're saying 9.69 cost per kilogram.

David Surveyor

Oh, sorry. Sorry.

Yeah.

Paul Jensz

If California wants to maintain and as the trees mature and they need more trees to replace the existing ones, what do you say is the cost base for that?

David Surveyor

That 9.69 is based on what we think the operational cost of farming is. It's not really a consideration that goes to the cost of replants or otherwise.

It's direct operational comparison.

Paul Jensz

Good. Thank you.

We'll see you later in the week.

David Surveyor

Thanks, Paul. Cheers.

Andrew Angus

David, we are right on time for our next meeting, we're going to have to wind up. I'll hand over to you to do that, and thank everyone for participating.

David Surveyor

All right. Thank you all.

We greatly appreciate you listening to the Select Harvests story. We hope there's some good news in there and that you're excited about the future as the company is.

Thank you very much for attending, and we'll look forward to speaking to several of you later on in the week. Thank you.

Bye.