Marcus Poppe
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Marcus Poppe speaking, on behalf of Daimler Truck.
I would like to welcome you to our Q1 results global conference call. We are very happy to have with us today Karin Rådström, our CEO, and Eva Scherer, our CFO.
Karin and Eva will start with a brief introduction, directly followed by a Q&A session. The respective presentation can be found on the Daimler Truck Investor Relations website.
Please note that this conference call will be recorded. The replay of the conference call will also be available as an on-demand audio webcast in the Investor Relations section of Daimler Truck website.
I would like to remind you that this teleconference is governed by the safe harbor wording you will find on all our published results documents. Please note our presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflects management current views with respect to future events.
Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. If the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, then actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by such statements.
Forward-looking statements speak only to the date on which they are made. Before we start, let me give you a quick reminder.
Following the signing of definite agreements in June 2025 with the target to integrate Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino into ARCHION holding company, the Mitsubishi Fuso subgroup was reclassified as discontinued operations and assets and liabilities held for sale starting in Q2 2025. Effective January 1st, 2026, the Trucks Asia segment was no longer reported separately, and for capital market communication, we focus on continuing operations for business development, unit sales, and profitability.
Our investment research activities as well as free cash flow and liquidity are presented on a combined basis, including both continuing and discontinued operations. With closing on April 1st, 2026, our shares in the Mitsubishi Fuso subgroup were transferred into shares in ARCHION, and as a result are reported as an at-equity participation from Q2 onwards.
With that, let's jump into the results. Karin and Eva will walk you through how the first quarter came together, and after that, we'll be open things up for analyst questions followed by the media.
Karin, please, over to you.
Karin Rådström
Thanks, Marcus, and good morning also from my side. As you may have seen, we had a first quarter which was on the soft side, with low volumes in North America and continued tariff impacts.
At the same time, we are seeing really strong order intake and remain very confident as we look ahead for the remainder of the year. With that, let me have a look at the key figures for the quarter.
For the group, we generated €10 billion in revenue, with an adjusted EBIT of around €500 million and a net profit of €149 million. Our balance sheet remains strong, with net industrial liquidity of €7.1 billion.
Furthermore, we continue to deliver on our strategy to become a more profitable and a more focused company, with three topics to mention. Firstly, with the completion of the integration of Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino Motors into the newly established ARCHION Corporation on April 1st, we enable that new company to unlock synergies, benefit from scale across products, technologies, and operations.
As communicated, we will gradually reduce our ownership to 25%, generating a total cash inflow from the transaction between €1.5 and €2.0 billion. Within the next 12 months, we expect the free float to reach at least 35%, which is an important prerequisite for a prime market listing in Japan.
Secondly, in addition, we announced in March that Toyota intends to join cellcentric as an equal shareholder alongside Daimler Truck and Volvo Group. This represents a meaningful step forward for hydrogen technology.
It brings together three global industry leaders with complementary strengths and improves our ability to accelerate innovation and scale fuel cell systems. This partnership underscores our strong confidence in hydrogen as a core pillar of zero-emission transportation, while at the same time we maintain a disciplined approach to efficient capital allocation.
Thirdly, given the current conditions in the electric commercial vehicle market in North America, we're adjusting our spending accordingly. We agreed with our Amplify Cell Technologies joint venture partners to defer the installation of manufacturing capacity.
Limited construction will continue to ensure the joint venture remains well-positioned for the future while maintaining flexibility as the market develops. Due to the delay of production start and ramp-up, we recorded a non-cash partial impairment of €200 million in the at-equity result from Amplify in accordance with IFRS rules, which is reported as an adjusting item within EBIT.
We had originally planned a contribution to the joint venture in a low triple-digit million range this year, overall we will see a positive cash flow impact. Continuing with a look at the industrial business, revenue came down 14% year-over-year to €9.1 billion, and adjusted EBIT was down 55% to €460 million.
The primary reasons for the decline was the lower profitability at Trucks North America, where we saw very low unit sales along with significant tariff headwinds. We continued managing our overall cost base effectively and further reduced SG&A expenses.
Research and development investments were also lower in the first quarter, but we expect higher spending for the remainder of the year. Now to the orders.
Incoming orders, which rose by 50% to 114,000 units, shows that we have a great momentum with our products. Feedback, especially on our Actros L with the ProCabin, remains very positive.
At the same time, unit sales were down 9%, totaling around 69,000 units for quarter one, resulting in a book-to-bill of 166%. Overall, cancellation rates remain low, even with the heightened economic uncertainty related to the Middle East conflict.
Turning to our zero-emission portfolio, we sold around 700 battery electric trucks and buses in the first quarter, up by 26%. In North America, the Class 8 market totaled 50,000 units in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 23% year-over-year decline, reflecting historically low order demand in 2025 and in line with our expectation of a slow start in 2026.
Our market share stood at 37.7%, making us, again, the clear market leader. Based on our strong order share, we expect our market share to improve as the year progresses.
In Europe, the heavy-duty market expanded by 11% to approximately 80,000 units, largely driven by Poland, the Netherlands, Spain, and Germany. Against this backdrop, our heavy-duty market share increased a lot from 14.2% in quarter one 2025 to 18.3% in quarter one 2026, reflecting the strength of our competitive product portfolio and the successful launch of the Actros L at the beginning of 2025.
As a result, we further reinforced our leadership position in Europe's medium and heavy-duty segments, achieving an overall market share of 18.5%. In zero-emission vehicles, we led the market again, capturing 33% of the European heavy-duty segment in the first quarter of 2026.
While the overall adoption in Europe is still low at around 2% of truck registrations, this underlines our strong competitive position as the transition continues. I'll now hand over to Eva, who will walk us through the segments.
Eva Scherer
Thanks, Karin. As you mentioned, market conditions varied across regions.
Let's start with a closer look at what it all meant for Trucks North America. At Trucks North America, revenue came down 29% year-over-year to around €3.8 billion following a historically low demand environment in 2025.
Excluding a negative foreign exchange impact of roughly €450 million, revenue was lower by 21%. Adjusted EBIT came in at €209 million, leading to an adjusted return on sales of 5.4%.
Unit sales fell 25% to the lowest first quarter level since 2010. Positive pricing and disciplined cost management helped mitigate the impact, but could not fully offset substantial tariff headwinds and the pronounced volume decline.
With an order intake of over 59,000 units, up 86% year-over-year and 13% sequentially, our growing backlog gives us confidence for the remainder of the year. The overall industry is showing discipline, and our customers are replacing their aging fleets despite continued macroeconomic uncertainty and higher fuel costs.
Freight rates have improved by more than 20% year-over-year as freight capacity has exited the market. We are now seeing the full impact from Section 232 truck tariffs, resulting in a combined low triple-digit million euro net tariff impact in the first quarter.
Our application under the U.S. content program and the review of MSRP credits are still pending, with no confirmed impact on the effective rate at this time.
Despite these factors, performance remains very solid and demonstrates resilience. Mercedes-Benz Trucks generated revenue of €4.6 billion, 4% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted EBIT of €233 million, resulting in an adjusted return on sales of 5.1%.
Order intake was strong, reaching around 49,000 units, representing a 33% increase compared to quarter one 2025 and 4% sequentially. In Europe, profitability benefited from a strong sales performance and the strict implementation of Cost Down Europe measures.
This was partly offset by duplicate aftersales operation costs related to the ramp-up of the global parts center in Halberstadt, along with slightly negative net pricing. Moreover, the prior-year quarter benefited from a mid-double-digit one-time warranty effect.
In Latin America, volumes increased slightly, driven by strength in Chile, Colombia, and Peru, and market share gains in the medium-duty market in Brazil. Profitability declined year-over-year, driven by much challenging market conditions in Argentina.
In India, volumes increased strongly in line with the market, supported by favorable mix. Revenue of Daimler Buses was at €1.2 billion, a 7% decline year-over-year, with adjusted EBIT of €107 million and a strong adjusted return on sales of 8.6%.
Order intake reached around 5,900 units, representing a 25% decrease compared to quarter one 2025, driven by the weaker markets in Latin America, however, still resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 119%. The strong European business keeps its positive momentum.
Unit sales declined by 20%, mainly due to a weak market environment in Latin America and Mexico, where we primarily sell bus chassis. At the same time, our higher-margin integral bus business in Europe slightly increased year-over-year.
Even with strong performance in Europe, positive pricing, and FX support, we could not fully offset the volume decline in the chassis business. However, despite lower volumes, we delivered a strong profitability, highlighting the improved resilience of the bus business.
Adjusted EBIT for Financial Services decreased year-over-year from €55 to €39 million, driven by higher loss allowances and foreign exchange headwinds. As a result, adjusted return on equity decreased from 7.3 to 5.1% in the first quarter.
A prolonged freight recession in North America, tariff-related impacts, and increased fuel prices due to the Middle East conflict have continued to weigh on customer cash flow. As a result, a growing numbers of customers are experiencing tighter liquidity in their business, also in Brazil and Mexico, which has translated into higher cost of risk, as we are taking a prudent approach to provisioning.
In North America, it will take time for higher freight rates to improve fleet margins that have been severely diminished after years of market downturn. Moreover, we're not adjusting for costs resulting from our ongoing restructuring initiatives to position our Financial Services business for improved returns in the future.
Free cash flow of the industrial business of around -€400 million was significantly lower than in the previous year, mainly driven by lower earnings and additional inventory build-up due to higher order intake. This was partly compensated by higher prepayments received from customers, increased trade payables, and lower income tax payments.
At the same time, our balance sheet remained very strong. Net industrial liquidity was at €7.1 billion after deducting the negative free cash flow and a cash outflow of around €50 million resulting from the share buyback program we initiated on March 16th.
Now turning to our guidance. To date, we have only seen a limited impact of the Middle East conflict on truck demand and global supply chains.
However, further developments will largely depend on the duration of the conflict and are likely to vary in severity across regions. The longer this situation remains unresolved and oil prices remain elevated, the higher the likelihood of inflationary cost pressures, supply chain disruptions, and softer truck demand.
As of today, macroeconomic leading indicators point to a more resilient outlook in North America compared with a more cautious sentiment in Europe. As always, our guidance does not factor in potential impacts from supply chain disruptions or adverse macroeconomic developments, particularly those related to the Middle East conflict.
It also assumes that the current USMCA and tariff framework remain in place. We continue to expect the North American heavy-duty market to land between 25,000 and 200— 250,000 and 290,000 units, with a pick-up in the second half of the year supported by replacement demand.
For the EU30 market, we expect a range of 290,000 and 330,000 units. All segment level guidance KPIs for 2026 remain unchanged.
For Trucks North America in quarter two, we expect unit sales to be around 50% above first quarter levels, with profitability at the upper end of the full-year guidance corridor. This does not consider a reduction in tariff exposure in the second quarter.
Based on our strong order intake and our expectation of a lower effective tariff rate under the U.S. content program in the second half of the year, we expect to deliver a full-year return on sales adjusted at the upper end of our 6 to 8% guidance corridor.
For Mercedes-Benz Trucks, we expect group sales to increase sequentially by around 15% in the second quarter, in line with further market improvement in Europe. Profitability is forecasted at the lower half of the guidance corridor.
For the full year, we confirm our 6 to 8% return on sales corridor, with a strong improvement expected in the second half of the year. For Daimler Buses, sales are expected to be around 30% above quarter one, and profitability is expected to be at the upper end of the guidance corridor.
We also confirm our full-year guidance corridor of 8 to 10% return on sales. Taking into account lower cash contributions to Amplify Cell Technologies, we expect to be at the upper end of our full-year free cash flow guidance and forecast a strong recovery already in the second quarter.
Marcus Poppe
Thank you very much, Eva. Thank you very much, Karin.
That concludes our presentation for quarter one quarter one results. Now it's time to move into the Q&A portion of today's call.
As usual, we will start with questions from analyst, then move on to the media. Both sessions will be recorded and made available on request.
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q&A part of today's Q1 results global conference call. I would like to remind you that this Q&A session will be recorded on Daimler Truck request.
The replay of the conference call will also be available on demand on audio webcast in the Investor Relations section of Daimler Truck website. A few practical points.
Please ask your question in English. Please also introduce yourself and your organization you are representing.
As matter of fairness, please limit the amount of question of a maximum to two. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on the touchtone telephone.
If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. If you are using a speaker equipment, please lift the handset before making your selection.
Please mute the sound of the internet stream while you are asking your question on your telephone. We will now begin the question and answer session.
Marcus Poppe
Good morning. I think we start with Nicolai Kempf from Deutsche Bank.
Hi, Nicolai.
Nicolai Kempf
Hi. Good morning.
Thank you for taking my question. It's Nicolai from Deutsche Bank.
Slow start in Q1, but well-flagged, and we appreciate comments on Q2. If we start in North America, very strong orders in Q1 that seem to slow down a bit in April.
Have you any color on that? Was this because of lead times getting longer?
Was it a bit of slow down because of the higher diesel prices? Any color on this would be appreciated.
Then moving to Mercedes and maybe to Europe, you've mentioned a bit more cautious indicators on the macro side. Can you just remind us what are the moving parts here going forward and why is Mercedes going to improve in H2?
Thank you.
Karin Rådström
Thanks, Nicolai. Karin here.
Maybe starting with North America. As you said, very strong order intake in Q1.
I think at 86% better quarter one compared to last year. In terms of April order intake, it was a bit more stable from moving on from March, but we're happy with the order intake in April.
In terms of Europe, as we move into Q1, we also see an improvement on the volume side. That should help to boost the result of the Mercedes-Benz Trucks segment for Q2.
Eva, anything? I think otherwise.
Eva Scherer
Yes, I think maybe I'll shed some light on Mercedes overall, explaining a bit further on quarter one and then also how you can expect the year to develop. Just to recap a little bit also what we went through during the speech.
We saw a 4% increase in revenue for MB year-over-year. We saw that order intake was strong.
As anticipated, as you said, slower starting to the year. We do see that we have profitability in Europe moving in the right direction.
This is supported by Cost Down Europe and also improving volumes, which will then also be a factor coming into quarter two. Now in quarter one, we did have temporary cost headwinds.
I mentioned it. Operational ramp-up of our spare parts distribution center in Halberstadt and some slightly net negative price-cost impacts.
What we also saw in quarter one in MB that we had some temporary inefficiency in our industrial setup related to the relocation of the Atego cabin production, medium-duty to Turkey, and that resulted in additional rework costs as we ramp that up. This is something in the next quarters that will get better.
Then we see, as I mentioned also in the speech just now, we had a lower profit contribution from Latin America here, Argentina being the main factor. When we look at this now coming into quarter two, we see that it will gradually ramp up into the second half of the year.
You saw that we're guiding for Q2 in the lower half of our full-year guidance corridor for Mercedes-Benz Trucks, but then you will have higher volumes come out and also some of these headwinds easing over the second half of the year, and we're very comfortable with our full-year guidance corridor.
Nicolai Kempf
Understood. Thank you.
Marcus Poppe
Next question comes from Klas Bergelind, Citi, please.
Klas Bergelind
Thank you, Marcus. Hi Karin and Eva.
Klas at Citi. Can I just confirm on the margin guidance here for North America at the upper end in the second quarter?
This doesn't include any benefits from MSRP or the preferential tariff agreement, this is mainly the higher operating leverage quarter-on-quarter and then the better mix from Cascadia. Linked to this, given this solid margin here for the second quarter, it seems like you can reach, Eva, the higher end of the range of 6 to 8% for the year without these tariff benefits, at least on my math, with the tariff benefits coming on top.
Is that how to think about it? Thank you.
Eva Scherer
Hi, Klas. Thanks for your question.
Obviously very good one and not unexpected. You're right based on what you concluded that quarter two, and I said it also just now, there is no reduction of the effective tariff rate considered in quarter two.
It's really the run rate that we're coming out of quarter one that will also then translate into the quarter two profitability. We have a significant volume effect coming in with 50% higher unit sales.
Then obviously, that brings us to the upper end of the full-year guidance corridor in quarter two. Now when it comes to the lower effective tariff rate that we believe we can get under the U.S.
content program and then also MSRP credits, maybe the first one. Lower effective tariff rate, we have not received confirmation there, but we're still confident that we will get a relief there.
We're not exactly sure how long it would take, and then we have to see based on our application what will be accepted. That's a bit unpredictable, but what you can say is that the assumption in our full-year guidance is quite conservative for a tariff relief because we're being cautious there.
On MSRP, I said last time that we had considered a mid-double-digit million amount for this in this year. We have taken it out now.
We still believe we will get it, but it could take a bit longer because we see that it's moving very slowly. We still don't have the calculation method, we couldn't even apply for any credits there for the U.S.
assembly. There, this could move into next year.
Generally, a bit more conservative assumptions there on the tariff side. As you did the math, we're trending quite well there when it comes to profitability based on run rate.
Klas Bergelind
Very good. My second one is on Mercedes-Benz and the orders.
We had this Mover incentive in Brazil, which have seen truck orders surge. I'm trying to understand how much of this is the better orders that you delivered, how much is driven by the Brazil incentives that we understand will start to roll over after May versus the European better momentum, Actros L, etc.
Just so we understand sort of how much we need to give back from the Mercedes-Benz better orders into the second half. Thank you.
Karin Rådström
Hi Klas, Karin here. I can take that one.
Actually, we have a little bit different structure from some of our competitors in Brazil as we're a full-liner, and we deliver both the extra heavy, semi-heavy, and the medium-duty segment. Actually, if you look on our order intake in Brazil, it has remained rather stable quarter-to-quarter, and the growth that we are seeing is coming very much out of Europe and some of it also from India.
Klas Bergelind
Okay. Very clear.
Thank you, Karin.
Marcus Poppe
Thank you. Next question comes from Alex Jones from Bank of America.
Alex Jones
Great, thanks very much. Morning, both of you.
Maybe first on pricing, could you give comments on what you're seeing, particularly in Europe where you cited negative pricing this quarter, and also North America, whether the strength in order intake gives you any sort of potential to make a decision to further increase pricing through the year? Then the second question, just on the order strength.
Are you seeing any customer feedback to suggest there's already sort of an impetus given higher fuel prices to replace trucks a little bit quicker? Or is that really still too early for you to see in conversations or certainly in the numbers?
Thank you.
Eva Scherer
Thanks for your question, Alex. I'll take the pricing one first.
On the MB side, it was slightly net price-cost negative. Actually, what we do see is that over the course of the year, this will improve, and we expect a net positive price-cost impact on a Mercedes-Benz Trucks segment level for the full year.
In North America, obviously tariff effects are significantly higher this year, and our tariff surcharges are not compensating the tariff costs fully, and so we have a net negative price-cost, and we do expect that to remain for the full year. However, we do see from a pricing perspective that pricing itself is improving, and we also do see that as we go into the year looking at the good order momentum, potentially there is also some room for improvement there.
We are reviewing this every quarter when it comes to pricing and related also to tariff surcharges. You asked then also on the demand side in North America.
We do not really see so much of this that customers replace trucks earlier. We generally see that there is a renewal need in the market, as there has been a very long freight recession ongoing in the third year now.
I mentioned that freight rates have improved 20% since the start of the year and also over 20% year-over-year, a significant improvement that is helping. We also do see that this is supported by capacity exiting the market, and also really stronger requirements being followed up on English language proficiency of drivers, this non-domiciled CDL topic being tackled.
That is what is supporting now really the freight rates and results ultimately on the demand side. We believe there's still potential for that to further pick up going forward.
Alex Jones
Great. Thank you.
Marcus Poppe
Next question comes from Daniela Costa at Goldman Sachs.
Daniela Costa
Hi. Good morning.
Thank you. Actually two questions, but starting out with the U.S.
and with EPA, just wanted to get a little bit more clarity on sort of how your strategy to adapt for that is. I guess your order book might be significantly filled for '26, maybe soon we'll be talking about filling '27.
Have you decided what you're going to do with pricing there? Then I'll ask an unrelated one afterwards.
Karin Rådström
Hi, Daniela. Karin here.
We are still wait
Daniela Costa
Hello? I don't know if it's just me, but can't hear anything.
Marcus Poppe
Daniela, can you hear us?
Daniela Costa
Only now. I think it went blank.
I don't think it was just for me.
Karin Rådström
Do you hear me, Daniela?
Daniela Costa
Yes. Yes, that's working now.
Thank you. All right.
Karin Rådström
I was saying that EPA has confirmed that EPA 27 will come, but we still don't know exactly how warranty and some of the other legal topics will be playing in, which means it's still quite difficult to know how to set the pricing. However, we are, I think, very confident that we will have very competitive pricing and that we have a good technical solution to be compliant, which should help us very much going into '27.
Daniela Costa
Thank you. My second question was just more regarding how do you think about sort of China strategy over the long run, just sort of an update of where you stand there?
We see some of the Chinese peers being a bit more active on exporting. We also see some of your peers talking about sort of having a presence there to maybe leverage it outside of China, just update on where do you stand there.
Karin Rådström
I can take that one. We have a joint venture in China with Foton called BFDA.
We have been negotiating quite a long time on the way forward, and let me say I was hopeful to solve it earlier. I think I said in our Capital Market Day to come back at the beginning of the year.
We're still negotiating, all options on the table, I'll definitely come back as soon as there's something to tell. I think I'm learning that sometimes it's better not to stress to get to a solution, but to come out with a really good one in the end.
In terms of Chinese competitors in various markets, of course we know them. We see them.
We have seen them for many years, but now they are in some markets pushing more. I think we've shown in the bus market where they have been present even in Europe over the last 10 years that we're able to fight back and to show very strong performance also against our Chinese peers.
I think you see it in the result of our bus business. I believe the same goes on the truck side.
We have to keep playing on our strengths, bringing very good products, keeping close customer relations, and having very good network to ensure the total cost of ownership and the uptime of our vehicles.
Daniela Costa
Thank you.
Marcus Poppe
Next question comes from Michael Aspinall from Jefferies, please.
Michael Aspinall
Hi. Good morning, Karin, Eva, and Marcus.
Just two. One on North America.
We heard that there were some pricing notices given to customers in the U.S. in March.
Just wondering if those orders would be delivered in 2Q or would they more likely come through later in the year?
Eva Scherer
Michael, you said some pricing that has been given to customers in March. Could you explain what you mean?
Michael Aspinall
We just heard from some customers that some pricing notices came through in March, and I was wondering if pricing is a significant component in 2Q in North America for the margins or if that would come through later given when orders are taken.
Eva Scherer
As I said, obviously with a good order situation, our ability also to look at tariff surcharges has improved a bit, but this is mainly relevant for orders then in the second half of the year, not in Q2.
Michael Aspinall
All right. Cool.
Then the other one, you've announced the site of a new manufacturing plant in Czech Republic, I believe it is. Can you just talk to how important it is in reaching that decision for Cost Down Europe in the years to come?
Eva Scherer
Yes. It's in line with what we announced at our Capital Market Day.
Our aim is to have around 25 moving from 45 to 25% of our assembly capacity in Mercedes-Benz in Europe, and to bring costs down by €3,000 per truck from that assembly plant.
Michael Aspinall
Great. Thank you.
Marcus Poppe
Next question comes from Lewis Merrick from BNP Paribas.
Lewis Merrick
Good morning, Karin and Eva. Lewis Merrick from BNP Paribas here.
Thanks for taking my questions. I think last quarter, you spoke of reaching the top end of your guidance for North America was dependent on receiving favorable tariff treatment.
Based on your earlier comments, is that no longer the case today?
Eva Scherer
I alluded to it when I answered the question from Klas, Lewis, but happy to explain it a bit further to make it clear. Yes, we said that in last quarter, but obviously you see also now that our run rate is developing quite well.
Already in the second quarter with the volume effect of 50% higher unit sales, we expect to be at the upper end of our full-year guidance corridor. We still for the full year assume that we will get a better effective tariff rate, a lower one, especially related to the 232 truck tariffs.
However, the assumption that we have considered there is a more conservative one. As you can imagine, there are a lot of moving pieces on this, and we will know once we hear back from the U.S.
administration. This is where we are right now, and we will keep you updated.
Lewis Merrick
It's fair to say that if you were to receive that favorable tariff treatment, you could see upside to that North America guidance?
Eva Scherer
Maybe we'll discuss that in a couple of months once we have heard back from the U.S. administration.
Lewis Merrick
Okay. Just one follow-up.
On the price of the key inputs, whether it be energy, steel, aluminum, these have all increased. Do you have an estimate of the total cost headwind you expect in 2026 from raw materials?
Eva Scherer
Yes. Obviously, it's a very volatile situation, and I mentioned it also in the speech that we have to closely monitor the development in the Middle East, and the impact really depends on how long the current situation persists, the Strait of Hormuz will be open again, and so on.
What we have done is we have taken some amounts into our forecast and, as a result, also into our guidance when it comes to raw material costs, logistics costs, fuel costs, and so on. However, we have not considered the impact of potential supply chain disruptions, the potential implications on demand, because as Karin also said, our orders are still developing well in Europe as well as in North America.
A prolonged situation in the Middle East that would prove to be challenging, that's something that we have not considered in our guidance. Of course, we have a risk scenario that we have evaluated as part of our opportunity and risk management that we always do.
Lewis Merrick
Okay. Thank you very much.
Marcus Poppe
Next question comes from Akshat Kacker from JPMorgan.
Akshat Kacker
Good morning, Karin, Eva. Akshat from JPMorgan.
A couple of questions, please. The first one on order intake trends in Europe.
Have you seen any slowdown or any changes to the strong order intake that you saw in Q1 in the months of April or the start of May, please? The second one is on R&D spending.
You talked about a below-trend R&D spend in the first quarter. Could you just remind us your expectations for the full-year R&D spend, please?
Thank you so much.
Karin Rådström
Hi. I can take the first one, and then I hand the second one to Eva.
On order intake in Europe, it stayed, I would say, quite strong also in April, maybe slightly down, but still on a good level. Then on R&D, just a second.
Eva Scherer
Yes, R&D, I'll take over. It was a bit lower in the ramp-up in quarter one, but we still believe that we will have slightly higher R&D expenses over the course of the year compared to prior year.
As we have also previously explained, we really see R&D expenses peaking this year and next.
Akshat Kacker
Thank you.
Marcus Poppe
Next question comes from Harry Martin at Bernstein.
Harry Martin
Hi, yes. Morning, everyone.
The first question I have just about the ramp-up of volume in the North America business, 50% up Q2 versus Q1, but then also through the year. I wondered if there are any risks to this ramp-up.
Do you have the staff for the lines? Are the suppliers that you have all set up to match that speed or is there any risk to that volume expansion?
Eva Scherer
Thanks, Harry, for your question. We do have everything lined up, obviously already for quarter two.
Our production program for quarter two is already fully booked. Q3 and Q4, we're filling up nicely.
I would say that's an absolute healthy seasonality that we see there. We're used to ramping up and down, and that's what we're also doing now.
I would say we're well-prepared to match that speed, with one caveat, which is obviously the situation in the Middle East that we have to watch out for. At the moment, we do not see any constraints there, but as I said, we have to monitor that very closely.
Harry Martin
Great. Then I wondered if I could get an update on the autonomous business, the Torc robotics status, I guess both the current technology and where we are on the rollout, but also, there were headlines through last year about potentially opening that business out to outside capital.
I wondered if we could get an update there.
Karin Rådström
Sure. I can provide you with that.
I would say the team continues to make good progress. We have a really important milestone at the end of the year to drive on-highway with the driver out with our production-intent hardware.
I think that's one of the strong benefits we see with Torc, that we already have hardware that we're ready to scale and not prototypes. We're still planning for an SOP in early 2028, and there's nothing that the team is doing that makes me doubt that, while for sure, it's uncertain when you deal with new technologies.
We think we're in a strong position with the Freightliner Cascadia. It's the best autonomous chassis in the market, and we also feel that there is a lot of interest from competitors of Torc for that chassis.
Also, in that particular segment where we believe autonomous will start to scale, we have a very strong market share, because it's with the big fleets on-highway where we have the Cascadia. In terms of how we will move on with the company, I think we're fully intent on funding that and making it a success, while for sure, we also always look for options for value creation.
Harry Martin
Great. Thank you very much.
Marcus Poppe
Next question comes from Hemal Bhundia at UBS, please.
Hemal Bhundia
Hi, good morning, Karin, Eva, Marcus. Hemal Bhundia from UBS.
One of your peers mentioned that their parts business was a bit softer than expected. Curious on how you're seeing your aftermarket business develop in Europe and North America, and I'll follow up with my next question after.
Yeah.
Karin Rådström
On the service side, we saw a low single-digit growth year-over-year. We think we will improve over the course of the year.
I talked a lot about breaking the curve. I would say we have not yet broken the curve in terms of our service growth, but I think we have a lot of great initiatives in pipeline.
In the U.S., we're working with AI to improve pricing. We're opening up some new retail stores to better reach the second and third owners of our trucks, which is a segment where we've had relatively low market share.
Then, as already mentioned, in Europe, we made just recent announcements. We opened Own Retail in Koblenz.
I think we announced yesterday or the day before that we bought a dealer group in the UK, we're establishing our first Own Retail in the UK. Then, as Eva mentioned, Halberstadt, which is currently a bit of a challenge with the ramp-up, as you can imagine, with 300,000 parts moving into 170 countries.
Once we get that under control, which I think will happen over the next months, definitely we are optimistic about the potential to grow service business even more.
Hemal Bhundia
Very clear. Thank you.
I recall that you mentioned that there were some bottlenecks in the vocational side at the bodybuilders. Could you give an update on how this has developed?
Karin Rådström
Fairly stable, I would say. We still see that, but generally, the vocational business is developing as we expected and believe that we can see significant growth there in the next couple of years, also in market share.
Hemal Bhundia
Great. Thank you.
Marcus Poppe
Our last question comes from Frank Biller at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, please. Frank, can you hear us?
Frank Biller
Hello? Can you hear me now?
Marcus Poppe
Oh yeah. Now we can hear you.
Frank Biller
Thanks a lot. It's a question about zero-emission vehicles.
Here we saw strong deliveries here, book-to-bill ratio of 1.5 here. What is your expectation for the full year given the higher diesel prices?
Is it going steadily upwards or is it a bit more coming down because of the U.S. business here?
The other question is on this autonomous driving again. I've seen the cost went down to 71 million compared to 81 million in the quarter.
Have we seen the peak already, or will it go upwards with this start of production?
Karin Rådström
Hey, Frank. Karin here.
I can take the ZEV question. Actually, we don't see that the diesel prices going up directly drives adoption of zero-emission trucks, and the main reason being that infrastructure is still a bottleneck.
Actually, we do see with some of our customers that the total cost of operation for electric trucks, depending on the use case, of course, is quite positive, especially for those who drive a lot on Autobahn, where you also have the significant advantages from the Maut for an electric truck versus a diesel one. Due to the still very slow ramp-up of infrastructure, and it's actually both the public infrastructure along the highway, but also for customers who want to establish infrastructure at the depot, it takes too long with the permitting processes and getting the electric connection to the grid.
That's actually the main bottleneck, which is very unfortunate considering this would be an opportunity really where it should and could have taken off more. Yes.
On the cost ramp-up, no, we haven't seen the peak already, it's a fairly stable development that we're expecting this year also compared to last year when we look at the full-year ramp-up of costs.
Frank Biller
Thank you.
Marcus Poppe
That concludes the first part of this Q&A session for investors and analysts. I would now like to hand over to Andy Johnson for the second part, where all participants from the media can ask their questions.
Now, as usual, IR remains at your disposal afterwards. Have a great day.
Thank you, and goodbye. Over to you, Andy, please.
Andy Johnson
Thank you, Marcus, and welcome, everyone, to the media portion of our Q&A session today. Before we start our media Q&A session, some housekeeping remarks.
As you probably have guessed by now, this call is conducted in English. Please be so kind to ask your questions in English as well.
The operator will now explain the procedure for registering your questions now.
Operator
If you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. Please press star and two on your telephone keypad if you wish to withdraw your question.
One moment, please. We are now registering your questions.
Andy Johnson
Thank you very much. We will now begin our media Q&A session.
The operator will address the questioners by name. Please be so kind to also briefly introduce yourself with your full name and your media outlet.
Take your time, and please ask your question slowly and clearly. With that, operator, let's go with our first question.
Operator
The first question comes from Robin Wille from DPA, Deutsche Presse-Agentur. Please go ahead.
Robin Wille
Hi, good morning. This is Robin Wille from DPA, Deutsche Presse-Agentur.
Hope you can hear me. In your press release, you state that the financial results were primarily impacted by lower profitability at Trucks North America.
Could you please explain this in more detail? What were the main factors here, and can you quantify them precisely, for example, how significant was the headwind caused by the tariffs?
What factors outside of North America influenced net profit looking at the loss on equity method investments? Could you also please explain that?
Thank you very much.
Eva Scherer
Hi, Robin. Eva here.
Thank you for your question. The important thing about North America is that it was really the lowest volume quarter that we have seen since 2010.
This was really a historic low, a significant volume effect in there. In addition to that, we have the highest tariff effect in quarter one that we have seen so far because the 232 truck tariffs are fully considered there.
In quarter four, it was only two out of three months. The overall tariff effects, including all tariffs, reached a low triple-digit million amount, just to give you some idea here.
Then we had an adjusted effect, which you also see in our numbers, that was €200 million for a partial impairment of our stake in Amplify Cell Technologies. Karin mentioned that in her speech.
There, we have decided together with our joint venture partners that considering the environment in North America concerning zero-emission vehicles, we will delay the build-up of manufacturing capacity in that joint venture. It's a battery cell manufacturing joint venture, and that caused, based on IFRS accounting requirement, a partial impairment of our book value.
However, we will have a positive free cash flow effect out of this, because we did consider in our initial planning a low triple-digit million amount in cash injections into this joint venture, which we do not expect anymore, and that then also brings us to the upper end of our guidance corridor for the full year when it comes to free cash flow.
Operator
The next question comes from Ilona Wissenbach from Thomson Reuters. Please go ahead.
Ilona Wissenbach
Yes. Good morning.
Ilona Wissenbach from Thomson Reuters. I didn't get it now, Eva.
Was this low three-digit million amount tariff effect only for the first quarter, or was it for the full year? That's one question, and another one after that.
Eva Scherer
Yes. The first one is easy.
It was only for the first quarter.
Ilona Wissenbach
Okay. How is it for the full year?
Is it not able to calculate?
Eva Scherer
This is what we pay now. Then, as I also said during the speech, we have applied for a relief under the U.S.
content program. There, we do then expect a reduction of the effective tariff rate that we pay under the Section 232 for the truck tariffs.
That is where we do then believe in the second half of the year that there will be a reduction, but we cannot quantify it yet because we have applied for that relief with the U.S. administration, but we have not heard back.
Quarter one and quarter two
Ilona Wissenbach
The latest
Eva Scherer
Sorry. Go ahead.
Ilona Wissenbach
The latest announcement of President Trump, do you think it changes anything because the 25% apply anyway already to trucks?
Eva Scherer
Yeah. Generally, we do not ship assembled trucks from Germany into the U.S., and that's our current understanding of this new tariff rate that was announced on May 1st.
Obviously, we continue to evaluate the changes in the tariff framework.
Ilona Wissenbach
Okay. Thank you.
The second question was about the zero-emission trucks in the U.S. You see that the market there is more difficult, and I wonder why you support actively the legal actions of the Trump administration against the climate change rules.
I think you faced criticism for that also today at the annual shareholder meeting. Adjusting to a weak market is one thing, but actively supporting to stop selling zero-emission trucks is another thing, and I don't understand it.
Karin Rådström
I can do this one. It's absolutely not to be interpreted like we are against zero-emission trucks in the U.S.
The challenge we have is that California has one legislation when it comes to zero-emission trucks, and this has been challenged by the federal legislation because they are saying that the California legislation is not right or not valid. Therefore, it's more of a technical step that we are suing to understand which legislation are we to be following in the Californian market.
That's the explanation on that. In terms of zero-emission trucking in the U.S., I think we can say with confidence, we have been very committed.
We had started a group-wide battery platform project to be able to scale zero-emission trucks in the U.S. However, with the change in legislation, and now I'm back on the federal level, a lot of environmental legislation was pulled back, which we had anticipated, which means there is no demand for zero-emission trucks in the U.S.
at the moment because the customers simply cannot make the costs come together to be competitive with diesel. For that reason, we had to announce last year that we stopped our platform project which we had started.
That's the background on that topic.
Ilona Wissenbach
Thanks.
Andy Johnson
All right. That looks like it for the media questions today.
Thank you, Robin and Ilona, for your questions. Everybody else joining us, thank you very much for joining us today.
Thank you, Karin and Eva, as well. Now as always, IR and communications teams remain at your disposal to answer any further questions you might have, please don't hesitate to reach out to us.
A recording of the session will be available later today on our Daimler Truck website. We are looking forward to staying in contact with you today, and have a great day.
Stay healthy. Thank you, and goodbye.
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