Siemens Energy AG

Siemens Energy AG

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptNovember 14, 2025

Operator

Good morning and a warm welcome to the Siemens Energy Q4 fiscal year '25 analysts webcast. Today we are here in the factory in Berlin.

I really have to say that we are sorry that you had to wait for 5 minutes. Of course, we gonna add the 5 minutes up on the end of the call, so that shouldn't happen.

Please excuse for that. As you probably noticed already, we pre-released our results yesterday night and published all the documents around 9:00 PM on our website.

Now, I'm pleased to have with me here President and CEO of Siemens Energy, Christian Bruch, and Maria Ferraro, our CFO. In the next 30 minutes, Maria and Christian will take you through the developments of the last quarter and the fiscal year 2025.

Thereafter, we will continue with our Q&A. For the entire webcast, we estimated roughly 1 hour.

With that, I hand over to Christian.

Christian Bruch

Thank you very much, and also good morning, everybody, also from my side, and thank you for joining our quarter four call. We do it here from the factory in Berlin, and that is something I wish you could see it.

It's really continuously because we have our products around us, and this gives a good atmosphere. As we wrap up fiscal year 2025, I would like to take a moment to reflect on Siemens Energy's journey over the past 5 years.

When we listed Siemens Energy on September 28 in 2020, we had a clear ambition: focus and deliver on fundamentals, co-create innovations with customers and partners, and start the energy transformation, all this based on our purpose, we energize society. Since then, we have come a long way.

We are offering the right products, solutions, and services to serve our customers in a changing energy world driven by higher electricity demand and the need for energy security. The trust of our customers placed in us and the strength of our portfolio is reflected in our continuous revenue growth since our listing, in total by 40% to almost €40 billion in fiscal year 2025.

At the same time, our order backlog has increased by around 75%, bringing us to another record-high level of €138 billion at the end of fiscal year '25. This is underlining the confidence of our customers in our ability to deliver complex, critical infrastructure energy projects, and a strong order backlog provides us good visibility for fiscal year 2026 and beyond.

Our journey has not been without challenges. We started in a world which was determined by COVID, and in fiscal year 2023, we were confronted with severe challenges at our wind business.

Our focus on operational discipline and stringent execution brought us back on the successful path, and since then, the resilience of the company has been strengthened. The result of this journey, a 350 basis point profit margin improvement since our listing, and a 1,500 basis point improvement since fiscal year 2023.

Looking at this development, I want to thank everyone working at Siemens Energy, our Team Purple, to make this happen. I'm proud of what the team at Siemens Energy has achieved together so far, and the journey has just started.

If the past 5 years have been about building the foundation, then fiscal year 2025 was the start of a growth journey with continuous margin expansion. Earlier this year, we upgraded our guidance at our half-year results to reflect our confidence in the development of our business, and I'm pleased to report that we have achieved the top end and partly overachieved our upgraded targets.

Fiscal year 2025 has been a year with strong performance. We saw 15% revenue growth, driven by robust demand across our core segments.

We achieved significant margin improvement of 500 basis points year-over-year, thanks to operational excellence and the execution of more profitable orders which we signed in the last couple of years. Finally, we generated an excellent level of free cash flow.

While Siemens Gamesa continues its turnaround journey, the rest of our portfolio has demonstrated remarkable performance. For the fiscal year 2026, we have set ourselves ambitious targets.

We also upgraded our mid-term targets for fiscal year 2028 substantially. For fiscal year 2026, we target a profit margin before special items of 9% to 11% and revenue growth between 11% and 13%.

Mid-term, for the fiscal year 2028, we are aiming for a low-teens percentage range revenue growth and a profit margin before special items of 14% to 16%, more than doubling current margin levels within 3 years. These targets are based on a robust order book, a culture of accountability, and operational excellence.

Looking into the development of orders and revenue in the different regions in fiscal year 2025, we have seen strong market momentum and are confident that this will continue in the next years and be a strong base to achieve our mid-term targets. During the last year, all our regions—Europe, the Americas, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East—delivered consistent expansion in demand.

The underlying favorable trends are intact and continuing for the foreseeable future as the demand for electricity and the need for modernization and expansion of the electrical infrastructure should proceed to increase. Our portfolio covers to a large extent today's and future technologies to meet this demand.

Next to the coal-to-gas shift, peaker demand, and the generally higher electricity demand from developing societies, as well as increase of electrification, 2025 order intake has been substantially supported by the electricity needs for data centers. Especially in the US, this has driven unprecedented demand for gas turbines and grid infrastructure and translated into record-high order volumes for Siemens Energy in fiscal year 2025.

We almost doubled the number of gas turbines sold globally from 100 units in 2024 to 194 units in 2025. Grid Technologies more than doubled the sales to hyperscalers to over €2 billion in fiscal year 2025, driven by North America, but also across all other regions.

It is for us a deliberate target to diversify the origin of our orders, ensuring that our growth is balanced and resilient. Based on the current growth momentum, we are adapting our footprint and aligning our operations to regional demand and customer needs.

The increasing regional setup helps us to mitigate the continuous geopolitical challenges like tariffs, which we, for example, experienced in the second half of fiscal year 2025. Let me give you some additional highlights on new projects from the last quarter.

In our Gas Services business, we sold in the quarter 5 GW of gas turbines and signed 11 GW in reservation agreements. This was mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the US.

With that, the total commitments increased to 54 GW in fiscal year 2025, thereof 26 GW orders and 28 GW reservations. 12 GW are related to data centers.

Pricing momentum for Gas Services continued to be favorable and is expected to continue that way in the foreseeable future. Grid Technologies achieved the strongest quarterly order intake in fiscal year 2025, driven by substantial demand growth across all regions, and the highest quarterly revenue in history, driven by both product and solution business.

We are confident that the profitable growth we aspire for fiscal year 2026 and beyond is supported by a strong electricity market. Fiscal year 2025 was marked by several milestones that provide a foundation for future success and shareholder returns.

Due to our solid financial performance throughout the year, we were able to exit the Bund guarantees, improve our credit ratings, and lift the dividend ban for fiscal year 2025. Our net cash position and robust liquidity profile allows us to pursue strategic growth and shareholder returns without compromising financial discipline.

We have put the right measures in place to continuously drive profitability. This includes optimizing our cost structures, reducing non-conformance cost, and being selective with the projects we take on, ensuring they align with our target margins and long-term strategy.

Our portfolio optimization efforts are well underway, but we will continue to review our portfolio elements. The divestment of our Indian wind business, which we have agreed in 2025 with a group of investors led by TPG, is an important step to focus our onshore wind power on selected regions.

Throughout the whole year, we were investing in the growth of our core business and a further strengthening of the supply chain. Examples were the acquisition of RWG and CIC this year, which will help our Gas Services businesses to deliver on their commitments.

We have been and are investing in the expansion of our factories. Strong focus is hereby the expansion of existing sites to achieve effective use of the capital spend and short payback times.

I'm pleased that also the development of partnerships to enhance our offerings into the markets made good progress in fiscal year 2025. Here's to mention Rolls-Royce in the area of small modular reactors and Eaton in the field of data centers.

You will see a lot more details on our future journey during the Capital Market Day in Charlotte, and we are excited to discuss these measures together with you. We are positioning Siemens Energy to lead in the field of resilient energy, pursue profitable growth, and deliver sustainable shareholder returns.

With that, let me hand over to Maria for the numbers. Maria?

Maria Ferraro

Thank you very much, Christian. Hello, everyone, from my side, a very good morning, and also a very warm welcome.

I'm pleased to share with you our Q4 and full-year financial results. As always, I'm happy to answer any questions you may have afterwards.

Before I go into the performance of the specific business areas, I would like to start with an overview for Q4 and full-year 2025 at the Siemens Energy Group level. Overall, we had a very strong finish to the financial year.

Quarterly revenue exceeded the €10 billion mark for the first time, with strong quarterly figures recorded for orders, profit, and cash flow. Fiscal year '25 is a record year, and we reached the top end of our guidance for all KPIs.

Now looking at Q4, orders reached €14.2 billion, and we saw a continuing strong demand, specifically in GS and GT. For the full fiscal year, we ended up just shy of €60 billion in orders.

This marks a record high since the listing. On a geographic basis, growth was broad-based, all regions recorded increases.

For fiscal year '25, orders were driven by a significant increase of 21% in our new unit business. Here, we saw exceptional growth in Gas Services with a remarkable 94%.

Our service business grew by 16% compared to fiscal year '24. The book-to-bill ratio in fiscal year '25 was at 1.51 for the group, and the order book climbed once again to a new record high of €138 billion.

Revenue in Q4 reached an all-time high since the listing, like I mentioned, of €10.4 billion. This is a 9.7% increase on a comparable basis.

The improvement of this quarter was primarily driven by GT and TI, with both growing by more than 19% on a comparable basis. For the full year, we ended up just shy of €40 billion in revenue, which also marks a record high since the listing.

Full-year revenue grew significantly in both new unit at 18% and in service with 13%, both on a comparable basis. In Q4, profit before special items was €471 million.

This is significantly above the -€83 million in prior year's quarter, ending the fiscal year almost at €2.4 billion. Again, this is another record for Siemens Energy since the listing.

Here, our profit increase was mainly due to increased volume and related productivity effects, but was also driven by improved margin quality of the processed order backlog. Profit was negatively impacted by tariffs in the quarter with a high double-digit million euro amount.

As already indicated in Q3, this was mainly due to the changes in the custom regulations between Europe and US. Additionally, in Q4, the amendment of Section 232 came into effect, which impacted mainly Siemens Gamesa.

In special items, we see adjustments mainly in Siemens Gamesa related to the sale of the Indian wind business as expected, as well as the continued restructuring efforts. Net income for Q4 was €236 million.

Free cash flow pre-tax was more than €1.3 billion for the quarter and therefore significantly above last year's quarter level, mainly driven by the sharp increase at Gas Services. I will talk a little more in detail about the drivers of our free cash flow on slide 11.

Now, let me turn to our order backlog on the next slide. Looking at our backlog, as we mentioned, we ended the year at €138 billion.

For fiscal year '26, this coming year, the revenue coverage is already more than 85%. In fiscal year '27, we see this as approximately 60%.

We also see an improved order backlog margin development in fiscal year '25. I will stop there because I will provide further details on the backlog margin development by BA at our Capital Market Day next week, please stay tuned.

Now, let me talk in more detail about the drivers of free cash flow. Free cash flow pre-tax, as I mentioned, was €1.3 billion for the quarter, roughly €400 million more than Q4 of prior year, again mainly due to improved profitability impacting our net income.

Positive cash contributions from our net working capital is mainly driven by an increase in contract liabilities and a decrease in inventories. Additionally, we continue to have incoming reservation fees.

This is also adding to our cash flow generation. Very quickly, an update on Siemens Gamesa's quality cash outs.

For Q4, this amounted to €157 million, and for the entire year, it was approximately €450 million. This is in line with our mid triple-digit million euro amount that we indicated for this fiscal year, and also we expect a similar amount for fiscal year '26.

Looking at CapEx, we spent €685 million in Q4, or roughly €1.7 billion for fiscal year '25. This is to fuel our future growth, mainly for expansion and capacity extensions.

For example, the ramp-up in Siemens Gamesa offshore, as well as investments for capacity expansions in Gas Services and Grid Technology. The amount spent in this fiscal year was lower than anticipated at the beginning of the year just due to timing and reallocations.

Therefore, please stay tuned also in terms of how we see target of CapEx for fiscal year '26. We'll look at that a little more in depth, of course, at our Capital Market Day next week.

Now looking at net cash on the right-hand side of the slide. Overall, we have €9.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

Our financial debt stood at €4 billion, of which €2.4 billion is long-term. This is an increase of approximately €0.3 billion versus Q3, mainly due to increased leasing obligations.

Taking into account pension provisions of €406 million, this brings us to an adjusted net cash position of €4.8 billion at the end of September compared to just €2 billion a year ago. Overall, we continue to build a strong balance sheet commensurate with an investment-grade credit rating profile.

Now, this is a perfect segue to a question we receive very often from investors over the last few months regarding capital allocation. For this as well, we will provide more details at our Capital Market Day next week.

However, one message which we can already reveal today is the dividend proposal for fiscal year 2025, demonstrating our commitment to shareholder return. We will propose a dividend of €0.70 per share for fiscal year '25, subject to approval at our Annual General Meeting in February 2026.

Now let's have a quick look at the financial performance of our four business areas, starting with our Gas Services business. In GS, we had a very strong finish to an exceptional fiscal year '25.

Congratulations to the entire Gas Services team. The Q4 orders of €4.8 billion were up by roughly 38% from prior year quarter, again driven by strong demand in the US and Saudi Arabia, as well as significant growth in service business, which was up roughly 48%, ending fiscal year '25 with a record order intake of €23 billion.

Book-to-bill was an impressive 1.89 for the fiscal year. This led to a record order backlog of €54 billion, another all-time high for our GS business.

In Q4, Gas Services booked a total of 19 gas turbines for power generation and oil and gas. 11 of those were large gas turbines.

Our gas turbine greater than 10 MW market share for power generation stood at 14%, and for large gas turbines greater than 100 MW at 19%. Q4 was always expected to be a bit lower compared to the previous quarters solely due to timing.

For fiscal year '25 overall, Siemens Energy achieved number one position in gas turbines greater than 10 MW for power generation with 31% market share. In large gas turbines greater than 100 MW, we have secured number two position with a 26% market share.

Again, a fantastic performance, and we are really grateful for the confidence our customers have placed in us and for our team's ability to secure those orders. Q4 revenue was €3.1 billion, a 15.5% increase on a comparable basis.

This ends fiscal year '25 with a record revenue of more than €12 billion and a comparable growth of 14.2%. This is above the fiscal year '25 guidance range of 11% to 13%.

In Q4, new unit business showed significant growth of almost 34% comparable, and service business of roughly 15% comparable. Q4 profit before special items was €251 million.

This was a margin of 8.1%. This is 300 basis points versus prior year Q4, again showing some of the normal seasonality pattern, but also reflecting the improved margin quality for the processed order backlog on new units business.

This ends fiscal year '25 with a record profitability of almost €1.6 billion and 13% at the top end of the 11% to 13% fiscal year guidance range. Lastly, but certainly not least, free cash flow for the fiscal year came in at a very strong €3.2 billion for Gas Services.

This is a cash conversion rate of just over 2. Again, fantastic job, GS.

Now let's take a look at our Grid Technologies business. This was also a record year for Grid Technologies.

Done. Q4 orders of €6.9 billion, up 31% year-over-year.

This was driven by strong growth across all regions, but specifically in the US, and an exceptionally high demand for product business. This ends fiscal year '25 with a record order intake of more than €21 billion.

Book-to-bill ratio for fiscal year '25 was at 1.9, again resulting in another record order backlog of €42 billion. Quarter four revenue reached a new quarterly high and grew by 19% on a comparable basis to €3.1 billion.

This is ending fiscal year '25 with a record revenue of more than €11 billion for GT, and a comparable growth of 25.4% for fiscal year '25, which is within the upper end of the guidance range of 24% to 26%. Revenue increase was supported by the steady processing of the order backlog, with the short-cycle business exceeding the solutions business.

Q4 profit before special items was €463 million. This was a margin of 14.7%.

This is also plus 450 basis points versus prior year quarter four, ending fiscal year '25 with a record profitability of almost €1.8 billion and 15.8%, again well at the upper end of the 14% to 16% guidance range for fiscal year '25. Free cash flow for the fiscal year for GT came in at €2.8 billion and a cash conversion rate of just over 1.55.

Excellent job. Thank you so much, and again, well done to our GT team.

On the next slide, we take a closer look at our Transformation of Industry business area. Fiscal year '25 was a record year for TI with regards to revenue and profitability.

Q4 orders were €1.6 billion. This was the highest quarterly order intake for the fiscal year, however, a decrease of approximately 20% versus prior year on a comparable basis.

This was due to an exceptionally large order in prior year orders in compression and in sustainable energy systems. The full year came in with €6 billion.

The book-to-bill ratio for '25 was just over 1 at 1.01, and the order backlog at the end of the quarter amounted to €8 billion. For TI, Q4 revenue grew by just shy of 20% to €1.6 billion, mainly due to substantial growth in the compression business.

This is ending fiscal year '25 with a record revenue of €5.7 billion and a comparable growth of 13.5%. Q4 profit before special items was €177 million, almost double compared to Q4 of last year, resulting in a margin of 11%.

This is a plus 420 basis points versus prior year Q4, ending fiscal year '25, again, with a record profitability of almost €646 million and 11.3%, above the 9% to 11% fiscal year 2025 guidance range. Here, the biggest contribution to the improvement in Q4 came from industrial steam turbines and generators with plus 420 basis points, and compression with plus 300 basis points compared to previous year's Q4.

Again, huge congratulations to the TI team. They have really been on a successful turnaround path for the last couple of years.

On that, when the TI business area was established, we emphasized the turnaround nature of most of its businesses, and as a result, provided additional voluntary disclosure for the independently managed businesses, or IMBs. Given the successful turnaround of key businesses such as compression and steam turbine generators, this additional disclosure no longer will be provided.

Accordingly, beginning with fiscal year 2026, reporting for TI will be standardized in line with the group's approach and the other business areas, and the separate IMB disclosure will be discontinued. Therefore, as of now, for Q1 of fiscal year 2026, TI will be reported in the exact same manner as all the other business areas.

Moving on to the next slide, where we take a closer look at Siemens Gamesa. Here, Siemens Gamesa finished fiscal year '25 in line with expectations despite the strongest headwinds from tariffs.

Q4 orders came in at €1.1 billion. This is a similar level as last year's Q4 number if adjusted for roughly €3 billion large offshore order in the North Sea in the prior-year quarter.

Orders overall for fiscal year '25 are €9.3 billion. The book-to-bill ratio for '25 came in at 0.9, and the order backlog is €36 billion.

Q4 revenue of €2.7 billion, representing a decline of roughly 9% on a comparable level to prior-year quarter. In Q4, a significant increase in the offshore business could not offset the expected decline in the onshore business.

However, overall revenue for fiscal year '25 was €10.4 billion, well above the fiscal year '25 guidance range with 4.7%. Q4 profit before special items came in at -€303 million, significantly better than prior-year quarter level, but remained negative, ending fiscal year '25 at around -€1.3 billion, which is exactly in line with our guidance.

This quarter, we did have more underlying operational improvement, which was held back by certain negative effects, for example, tariffs imposed by the US, which we already indicated in our Q3 closing. In the Q4, the direct negative impact for tariffs for Siemens Gamesa was a low to mid-double-digit million euro amount, and again, mainly driven by one-time effects related to long-term service agreements in the US.

Now let me move on to our outlook for fiscal year 2026 and raised fiscal year 2028 targets. First, our financial outlook for fiscal year 2026.

For SE overall, we expect 11% to 13% comparable revenue growth and a profit margin before special items of 9% to 11%. This is, at the midpoint, a step-up or increase of 400 basis points compared to fiscal year '25.

We also expect a net income of €3 billion to €4 billion and a free cash flow pre-tax of €4 billion to €5 billion. Looking at the business areas, when it comes to revenue growth, all business areas will grow in fiscal year 2026, with Grid Technologies leading at 19% to 21%, then followed by Gas Services with a growth of 16% to 18%, both of them in the high teens.

All business areas are demonstrating continuous year-over-year improvement and delivering double-digit profit margins or higher. The most significant step change will be the anticipated break-even of Siemens Gamesa.

In addition, all other business areas are targeting a margin uplift of approximately 200 basis points compared to the fiscal year '25 target ranges. Now just quickly, the updated financial targets for fiscal year 2028.

As indicated in Q2 of last fiscal year, when we upgraded the guidance for fiscal year '25, we did use the time to update the mid-term targets accordingly. For Siemens Energy Group, we are aiming to achieve a compound annual growth on a comparable basis in the low-teens percentage range through fiscal year 2028.

In addition, we target a profit margin before special items in the range of 14% to 16% by fiscal year 2028. This represents a step-up of approximately 400 basis points compared to previous targets.

The business area targets for revenue growth and profitability have been outlined accordingly. In summary, all business areas foresee continued revenue growth.

For profitability, the most significant step change by '28 will include an uplift of approximately 600 basis points for Gas Services and 500 basis points for Grid Technologies compared to prior targets. With this, thank you very much for your attention, and I now hand back to Christian for some closing key messages.

Thank you very much.

Christian Bruch

Thank you very much, Maria. Thank you, and I will keep it very, very short because obviously I look forward to see you next week on the Capital Market Day when we have more time to discuss and we will provide you with more details on our different businesses and the way forward of the company.

Summarizing 2025, it was a successful combination of an attractive market environment, products from our side which are really needed by the market, and resilient business models which now provide a very solid foundation for the future. We at Siemens Energy are excited to improve our company further and have kicked off with the new fiscal year our program Elevate Performance, which we will talk more about during our Capital Market Day.

Our increased mid-term guidance for 2028 underlines the performance commitment of the whole organization driving disciplined execution, innovation, and a relentless focus on customer and shareholder value. For now, let me hand it over to Tobias again for the question-and-answer session.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you so much, Christian. Thank you so much, Maria.

Now we will start our Q&A session. If you want to ask question, please press *1 on your telephone keypad, again *1.

If you want to take down your question, please press *2. I see already that we have quite a lot of people already in the line, I would always call up the next three names so that you already prepare for your question.

The first question will go to Sebastian Growe, afterwards it's Ajay Patel, and then Max Yates. Sebastian, please go ahead.

Sebastian Growe

Hi. Good morning.

Thanks, Tobias. Hi, Maria.

Hi, Christian. A first question would be around free cash flow, and the pre-tax target here is €4 billion to €5 billion, which is implying apparently around 100% conversion from the adjusted EBITDA.

Could you please help us with the key parameters going into this, such as CapEx, especially in the wake of that you spent €0.3 billion less than earlier guided last year, also the budgeted cash outs at Siemens Gamesa? Could you also comment on what the cash impact from slot reservations has been in '25 and how you view the conversion of the now 28 GW in reservation agreements in the year '26 into cash flow?

Maria Ferraro

Hello, Sebastian, and thank you very much for your questions regarding cash flow, and of course looking at the guidance to €4 billion to €5 billion. As you rightly mentioned, we do expect a CCR of 1 in fiscal year '26.

Of course, we do continue to see a positive impact from payments with respect to our order growth for the year and our continued backlog growth. Again, looking at CapEx, we'll provide more details on that next week at the Capital Market Day, but consider that the CapEx continues to exceed depreciation.

Of course, we also have some shifts back and forth between the two fiscal years. As mentioned earlier, with respect to Siemens Gamesa cash outs, there was around €450 million of cash outs relating to the provisions booked before for the quality topics, and we expect a similar amount for next year.

Those are the other aspects that went into the €4 billion to €5 billion cash flow guidance.

Sebastian Growe

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

The next person would be Ajay Patel. Could you please limit your questions always to one because we have so many people online?

Thank you so much.

Ajay Patel

Fantastic. Thank you for the presentation and congratulations.

My focus is just on your guidance. I'm looking at the '28 targets, and I just want to compare it with '24 to understand the margin progression and the two main drivers.

I was thinking, is there any way you could roughly give us the improvement in margin from '24 to '28, how much is driven by productivity, how much is driven by pricing for service and technology space?

Christian Bruch

Maybe I take this, and I would do this, AJ, with a once again clear invite to next week. We break down for every business more next week, and we want really to understand the details behind it.

Until then, I would keep it relatively generic. I would say the majority is productivity, the minority is pricing on this uplift on the margin.

This is obviously helps us a lot that we have a very good planning base, volumes are high, it allows us a good leverage in productivity. It also going forward, obviously, yes, backlog margin has continuously improved, and this is what Maria going to walk through next week.

I would suggest let's take it really up next week when we in detail explain it step after step.

Ajay Patel

That was for both divisions, right, Gas Service and Grid Technologies, that comment?

Christian Bruch

That was for what?

Maria Ferraro

Yes.

Ajay Patel

That was for both divisions, right, the technology?

Maria Ferraro

Yes, correct,

Christian Bruch

yes.

Ajay Patel

It covers,

Christian Bruch

yes.

Ajay Patel

Thank you very much. That's very helpful.

Maria Ferraro

Actually, AJ, you'll see those details for all of the business areas next week, which show the backlog improvements.

Ajay Patel

I will be there.

Christian Bruch

Very good. Look forward.

Operator

The next question goes to Max Yates, please.

Max Yates

Thank you, and good morning. I wanted to ask about the Gas Services margin guide for 2028, 18% to 20%.

I think that's probably the one that has surprised maybe me and the market the most this morning. I guess I just wanted to understand what is it that has given you the confidence to really put that up sort of as aggressively as you have?

Is this mostly around the gross margin expansion on new equipment? Are you also now sort of becoming more optimistic on some of the pricing in services?

Maybe just sort of finally within that, I know you won't give us the kind of target by equipment and aftermarket, but is it right to think sort of qualitatively that the margins of those two businesses are broadly converging within that target? That's my question.

Christian Bruch

Thanks very much, Max, and also there, you will see a great presentation on Gas Services next week with a lot of the details. Let me put a couple of comments in there.

What we absolutely do see, and this is different to 2 years ago, we see the gas business level substantially higher than before. This gives us a long-term planning base, and that has been a substantial uplift, which also helps us to drive the margin, because that is also about absorbing the factory, more productivity measures, better supply chain management.

There's a lot of elements into that. On your comment with regard to service and new unit, be a bit careful because actually the proportion of the new unit business going to be, let's say, growing faster and bigger than the service business.

Some of the service business, which gonna be related to the new unit business, only gonna kick off in '28 and thereafter. That is something what you have to see.

There is still a decent difference in the margins on the different businesses. What we are really benefiting from now also going forward is keep in mind when we started a couple of years ago, we were just introducing the large units, the HL.

We have a lot of learnings also through that, and that is where we get better and better really every year. We see that.

We know what we need to do, and this is things which are now obviously behind us. Karim will be there next week also and walk you in detail through the different matters.

That has been mainly it, and yes, the pricing in gas is still very favorable, but I would not underestimate really this productivity elements which we see really in the business area.

Max Yates

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you so much. The next three questions go to Gael de de-Bray, Vivek Midha, and Alexander Jones.

Please Gael, go ahead.

Gael de-Bray

Yes, good morning. If I have to stick to one question, let me ask about the 2026 outlook.

When I look at the margin guidance for the divisions and put them together, the weighted average implies a margin that is clearly higher than the 9% to 11% range you're guiding for at the group level. Is this because the break-even for Gamesa is not a real break-even, but rather starts with a minus, or is there anything else to consider?

Maria Ferraro

I'll take that.

Christian Bruch

Yeah.

Maria Ferraro

Hello, Gael, and thank you for the question. Let me just be clear, it does not indicate, and you're right in your calculations, but that does not indicate any lack of confidence in the BA ranges, not at all.

It is correct that if you do the math, of course, there's some, let's say, conservatism in relation to the BA ranges. We want to deliver what we promise, and we try to ensure that we have certain estimates for that, because no doubt the environment in which we operate continues to be dynamic.

Headwinds are present in various areas. For example, last year, of course, in fiscal year '25, we experienced the tariffs.

Of course, that's very much under control. We have that embedded in our guidance for next year.

Of course, we always are ensuring that if headwinds are present, that we are able to handle that. I know it maybe sounds silly, but there's also an element of rounding, of course, within all of it, trying to be as precise as possible as we can be with the BA ranges.

Still, I do want to ensure you that there is no lack of confidence on the BA ranges in this regard, not at all, Gael.

Christian Bruch

Thanks so much, Maria.

Gael de-Bray

For Gamesa, what is the sequential pass to break-even that we have to consider for 2026?

Maria Ferraro

You want to take the sequential pass for? I'm happy to take it, and please, Christian, if you'd like.

Look, you see in fiscal year '25, we've done a number of things right in the Siemens Gamesa business. They've been able to ensure that they're starting to look at how does the productivity look in all of their facilities that they're ramping up.

We have an example here in Germany where one of the facilities the productivity has increased year-over-year by 30%. As a result, you see that also in their ability to exceed their revenue forecast for this year.

They continue to very clearly look at optimizing footprint, ensuring that in terms of cost efficiency, supply chain, etc., all of those levers they're bringing in to this fiscal year. Please don't expect a linear progression to break-even.

We do expect that the first half, or the first quarter for sure, continues to be negative. Q2 and 3 really then brings us to a positive Q4 for Siemens Gamesa in fiscal year 2026.

Christian Bruch

Thanks so much, Gael.

Gael de-Bray

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question goes to Vivek Midha from Citi.

Vivek Midha

Thank you very much, everyone. Good morning.

I just have a follow-up around the reservation activity. It looks like you had a really good quarter, 11 GW of new reservations in the quarter.

You called out Saudi Arabia and the US, but it'll be great if you might be able to expand on the make-up of the incremental new regions by region on frame types and so on. Thank you very much.

Christian Bruch

I would once again hint a lot to next week where we try to give you the breakdowns, but let me say a couple of comments to what you said. Obviously, yes, US has been a generally strong market for us in '25.

What I would like to highlight is really our success across all different frames at Siemens Energy. The good thing is, obviously, we have small gas turbines, mid-sized gas turbines, and large gas turbines, and what you have seen that all of the frames are in good demand and really also have helped us sometimes to accommodate timing needs of customers.

In terms of markets, also, as I said in the last quarters, we try to keep the balance. Yes, obviously, US with 31% market share in the order intake was a good one, but Middle East, it's not only Saudi, you see UAE obviously also now getting very active.

You see orders we get in other parts of either North Africa or places like Iraq, where we were successful. It's really across the board.

I would really ask for your patience. Join us next week.

Much better. Karim is the right person to dive deep into that, and you will see a lot of great information.

Vivek Midha

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thanks so much. Next question goes to Alexander Jones from Bank of America.

Alexander Jones

Great, thank you. Good morning.

Christian, I think earlier today you made a comment that there are fewer synergies between onshore and offshore within Gamesa than perhaps is expected from the outside. Could you expand a little bit on those comments and whether that signals an openness to exit onshore once you've reduced cost and fixed the current issues?

If that's not something you've already decided, what are the key criteria you're looking at for making that decision over the coming years? Thank you.

Christian Bruch

No, thanks for the question, and I, let's say, don't overrate it, but what I want to flag up is always that from my perspective, each of the business has to prove their existence. This might be in a different time frame, because they're developing time-wise differently, but I look similar to other parts of the business.

I look on it really business unit by business unit, one level deeper or two levels deeper, is to say, and this has to be a good one. Yes, there are some synergies on the administration cost.

There are less synergies on the market side, because offshore by and large is two handful of countries. Onshore is a little bit more diverse in the countries.

Obviously, on the factories, most of our factories are either producing offshore or either producing onshore, and we have not seen that as a main lever. In both areas, obviously, we tap into wind turbine technology knowledge, so that is something.

What I wouldn't do is to say you, let's say, you definitely can only run it together, but our target is to make both businesses successful. I don't look on it like this in that regard.

That was the logic behind the statement, because we don't have the one factory where we do all products from, and just that this is understood.

Operator

Thanks so much. The next three questions go to Akash Gupta from JPMorgan, Ben Uglow from OxCap, and Sean McLoughlin from HSBC.

Akash, please go ahead.

Akash Gupta

Yes, hi. Thanks, Tobi.

Good morning, Christian and Maria. I have one on Siemens Gamesa, and maybe if you can provide a bit more color on this almost €1.36 billion loss in last fiscal year between onshore, offshore, and service.

When we look at the break-even, can you also help us what are you assuming for each of the three businesses? Thank you.

Christian Bruch

You want to take it?

Maria Ferraro

You can start.

Christian Bruch

I start, maybe. Akash, one thing to always look at, I think I said it in one of the calls before, keep in mind if you talk about the 1.3, there are some one-offs in '25 which I don't expect to reoccur in '26.

The jump-off point is slightly different. In terms of the breakdown of the businesses, maybe, Maria, you take this?

Maria Ferraro

This is what we've always said, Akash, is on our way to the break-even that we have to have, of course, the onshore has changed in terms of the dynamic, of course, because with the sales top, etc. The offshore revenues, as I mentioned earlier, are now starting to come in to the revenue stream.

We continue to have a strong service business. The one-offs that Christian is mentioning is actually related to the service business in fiscal year '25, and that's really the components, if you'd like, that will make sure, on top of other levers, of course, to get us to our break-even for fiscal year 2026.

Akash Gupta

Is it possible to quantify roughly these one-offs, we know idea of underlying profit? Thank you.

Maria Ferraro

No, those one-offs, of course, are generally project-related in nature, but in terms of the split, I can say that two-thirds is onshore and service, and one-third is offshore.

Akash Gupta

Thank you.

Operator

Thanks a lot, Akash. The next question goes to Ben Uglow from OxCap.

Ben Uglow

Morning, Christian, Maria, and Toby. Thanks for taking the question.

I was interested in the kind of market share commentary and in particular if we look at the 194 units, there is this big shift going on in your business from the large gas turbines to the industrial, the SGT-750 and 800s, etc. When we look across the whole market, if I think about Caterpillar, etc., we can see that.

I guess my question is, the assumption is that this is all to do with timing and availability of the engines. My question is, is this shift just a temporary thing, or do you actually think it could be a bit more structural?

The reason why I ask this is there are some aspects of the, let's call it, smaller machines that are more relevant or more appropriate to data centers. I just want to know your general sense on that.

Christian Bruch

No, happy to take this, Ben. The big increase also on the MGT side, the mid-size gas turbine side, is not only data centers.

There is good demand in data centers, also because of shorter delivery times and sometimes of the flexibility to have multiple trains and providing actually also with a build-out of the data centers a better ramp-up curve. There has been, for example, a very decent amount going to floating power, gas turbines on a ship, right?

There has been quite a decent amount going also on the industrial side afterwards on the compression side. I don't want to create the picture that it's just because of AI.

That's not the case for the mid-size gas turbine. This is also, and we show it also next week, why we decided to increase the capacity on our Swedish facility, and Karim will share this next week in more detail.

The good thing is, honestly, today I cannot tell you if you would say long-term picture after 2030 or whatever. I don't know.

What we are doing at the moment is we are doing investments into capacity expansion with a very short payback time. This is what drives us.

Where I'm very sure is that the investments we're doing at the moment in the sites to expand capacity will pay off. That's I'm confident about.

Structurally after 2030, to be seen. There is a lot of logic to have a multi-train solution with a robust turbine what the mid-size gas turbine is, but they will not be able to replace whatever an HL unit afterwards.

I think this is what we're not going to see.

Ben Uglow

That's great. Super super interesting.

Thank you very much.

Maria Ferraro

Thanks,

Christian Bruch

Ben.

Operator

The next question goes to Sean McLoughlin from HSBC.

Sean McLoughlin

Thank you, and good morning. Just latching back onto the comments around productivity, I'm just wondering specifically on capacity.

How much of the real increase on the top line for Gas Services, Grid Technologies is faster than anticipated capacity ramp? You've highlighted challenges around paying and tightness with supply chain previously.

Has anything materially changed in your ability to scale faster than you expected versus a year ago? Thank you.

Christian Bruch

I would put it the other way around. The concerns have not materialized.

If you see the output of the factories, it was not a given for me in '25, particularly also with the ramp-up we had on the Grid Technology side, that we are able to get the volume out which we finally got out. I think good job done.

We had decent concerns with the ramp-up. We are, I think, also better compared to 5 years ago in terms of really standardization of really workflows and ways to produces, and the same obviously applies to the gas turbine.

I think the gas turbine is now, let's say, going through this curve, and we see it obviously also on the blades and vanes production which we have in Florida. The uplift is now happening.

By and large, I would say the main point for me compared to before, the teething pain concerns have not realized in the sense of what we were fearing before. In that regard, it was a good job.

Sean McLoughlin

Thank you. If I could maybe just follow up on Gamesa as well, I recall that the offshore ramp issues, if you like, were part of the big profit warning a couple of years ago.

You're still talking about ramp for '26. What about risks, or let's say lingering risk, or where are we on that standardization productivity?

Christian Bruch

On the productivity in terms of what I do see and what the team has done in 2025, they have achieved really increases in the factory productivity of around 30%, right? Depends a bit on the factory, but that was great job, right?

I see the path is working out. What you have to keep in mind, we switched certain models, also switched certain blade lengths in 2025, and this means you have to replace the tools, you have to start new, you have to, let's say, rework the factory shop floor, and this costs productivity.

Now it's really of doing the same thing over and over again. All what I have seen now in '25 gives me the confidence that this journey continues in 2026.

Sean McLoughlin

Thank you.

Christian Bruch

Thank you so much, Sean.

Operator

The next three questions go to Vlad Zergewski from Barclays, Lukas Ferrani from Jefferies, and William Mackie from Kepler Cheuvreux. Vlad, please go ahead.

Lutz Zergewski

Yes, thanks very much. Good morning.

Very solid 15% growth in service business in Gas Services last year. Would you be able to give us some idea of the split of this service growth between long-term agreements and transactional business in 2025?

Christian Bruch

No, I really struggle also from the top of my head that I give you the right answer, and there I would really say next week, I think in terms of breaking it down, happy to discuss it, but I think I would otherwise give you no wrong numbers from the top of my head.

Lutz Zergewski

No worries. If then I can quickly follow up on the gas turbine pricing through the course of last year.

Has it been sequentially improving through the year? Has it plateaued at certain point?

Christian Bruch

Yes, slightly, right? I would also, we will never be a quarter-over-quarter business, and in that regard, I do look really on the sum of '25.

What I would say is the pricing trend in gas and of 20 fiscal year '25 still is intact and good.

Lutz Zergewski

Correct. Wonderful.

Thanks.

Operator

Thanks so much. Next question goes to Lukas Ferrani.

Lukas Ferrani

Thank you. I just wanted to follow up on the gas business and the duration of the cycle.

Can you talk a bit more about kind of the confidence kind of post-2028 that it's not, let's say, the best we see, and there's more to go? Specifically, there's a lot of discussion on maybe the upside there is at the moment from hyperscalers and data center, and whether that would normalize, what would that happen to the overall market post that date?

Thank you.

Christian Bruch

No, thank you for the question. I think our revised mid-term guidance underlines that we very clearly say gas is here to stay.

That is a stronger message than we gave 5 years ago or 3 years ago. In that regard, if you look towards 2028, we're confident that this continues.

We also believe we see the demand towards the end of the decade. Anything thereafter, I think it's really difficult to project and to, let's say, to say.

What I would say is what we are now trying to do, and also with the build-out of the capacity, we are trying to increase our fleet in the market. Whenever it turns, we sit on a super strong service business.

That is a logic of Gas Services. For the time being, for the next years to come, yes, we are confident that this trend remains, and then let's see after '28 what else is coming.

Operator

Thank you so much. Will Mackie from Kepler Cheuvreux, it's your turn, please.

William Mackie

Good morning, Christian, Maria. My question goes back to the guidance-setting process and the future shape from '26 out to '28.

Maybe, given we're talking high level today and detailed next week, you can just flesh out how the process was built, top-down, bottom-up, how the shape of the guidance should unfold. Is it linear, or is it very back-end weighted that you deliver on the growth and the profit projection?

To what extent are the elements of ramp-up costs and learning effects, as you build through the GS and GT businesses, weighing on the '26, but releasing in terms of the performance into '27, '28?

Christian Bruch

Do you want to?

Maria Ferraro

I can absolutely.

Christian Bruch

Why don't you take the first shot?

Maria Ferraro

I'm going to take the first shot. How was the guidance composed, or how did we put it together, I think, Will, generally speaking, it's part of our overall planning process.

As Christian mentioned, in certain aspects, we didn't see or foresee such a momentum continuing for as long as we see it even as of our last planning cycle in last year. How was put together was very methodically, looking at the momentum that we see in GS and GT, seeing the market positivity that we see there.

I think you said something around linearity or non-linear, is it back-end loaded? I would suggest it really is a constant, like I said earlier, constant improvement year-over-year in those businesses.

Why is that? That is because it's built on the backlog that we have, of course, in house of €138 billion, which gives us the visibility.

Again, don't forget, 90%, almost 85% plus percent of our revenue is already in house for this year, an additional 60% is in house for next year. Really, that gives us a very strong basis for planning in terms of the figures.

Then from a market perspective, and this is I'm sure where Christian will want to add, we've coupled that and said, okay, how does that factor into growth, etc.? As you rightly or we've talked about, we have capacity coming on board, but again, it's all built on the back of our backlog plus our market expectations.

Christian Bruch

Plus a couple of programs which we run

Maria Ferraro

to

Christian Bruch

also drive operational excellence in the organization. We will talk about this next week.

The one non-linear element if you look '26 towards is really wind, right? There's a big step up next year,

William Mackie

and

Christian Bruch

then it's more step by step. This is what you have to keep in mind.

The rest is really evolving the backlog and driving operational excellence.

William Mackie

Absolutely.

Operator

Thanks a lot, Will. As we started a bit later, we have two more questions to squeeze in.

The first question would be going to Kylewinda Rajbal from Berenberg, and the second one to Alex Hauenstein from DZ Bank. Kylewinda, please go ahead.

Kylewinda Rajbal

Thank you, Tobias. Good morning, everyone.

My question was related to Gas Services and particularly the nuclear market. How do you see customer discussions shaping up so far, and if you could expand on the partnership with Rolls-Royce and how this positions you for the nuclear market?

Maybe this is a key market for you beyond by '28. Maybe we expect some details on it in the Capital Market Day as well.

Any thoughts here would be helpful.

Christian Bruch

To some extent, we address it next week, but always nuclear market is for us twofold. The one thing is a service market for the large turbines, which obviously we have a good installed fleet, and that continues to be a nice service-driven business, which used to be in the mid to high-triple-digit million or so roughly, depending on the year, depending who goes into, let's say, bigger maintenance cycles.

Then you have the SMR pieces, as you said, with Rolls-Royce. You have maybe seen the announcement this week, but this is something for after 2030 in terms of realization, right?

This is long out. This is what we are now preparing.

This is an important collaboration for us because we believe as a future project in this, but this will not influence our '26 or '28 or whatever. That's not decisive there.

That's more thereafter.

Kylewinda Rajbal

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you so much. Alex Hauenstein from DZ Bank, please conclude with your last question.

Alexander Hauenstein

Great. Thank you, Alex Hauenstein.

I have a question with regard to the German government. They started to speak about the strategy to build gas power plants here and to bring them online by 2031.

I saw on Bloomberg that your comments a bit on the press conference, I'm sorry, but I missed on that one. Nevertheless, maybe you could elaborate a bit from your point when you look at beyond the points you made this morning about what that means for you in terms of potential new orders, if any, to come soon, especially in light of the capacity constraints to which you have already.

How realistic is this 2031? I would be also interested to hear about what in terms of size in gigawatts, what you expect to get out of that or any indication on that would be great.

Lastly, I would be curious to hear your thoughts about the requirements to build in green hydro readiness for these turbines.

Christian Bruch

We are ready here, right, in terms of we are waiting for these projects, and I cannot wait really until they finally pull the trigger to do the auctions. As I said it before, with a certain amount of customers, we have pre-agreements where it's even you go, we go type of setups.

In other customers, we have at least pre-alignments. It is an open competition with our peers, but we definitely would like to secure projects in that.

How much of this chunk, and let's assume it's the 8 GW first and then the 2 GW later, I don't know yet, right? One thing I can ensure, we have planned it in.

It's feasible also with the 2031 if they now move ahead. Obviously, it depends on the start date, but we would be more than willing to fight for it, and we will try to secure a fair share out of these different projects.

What was the last?

Operator

Hydrogen.

Christian Bruch

Hydrogen piece. We test hydrogen for all our turbines.

All of the turbines take a certain portion of hydrogen anyway. Smaller turbines we have tested and operated on a 100% turbine hydrogen already, and the development program for us is really projected towards 2030.

If we stay in this time schedule, I'm okay also with a hydrogen request. We will make this happen.

The turbine will be available for that.

Operator

Thank you so much. With that, we would conclude our Q&A session, and Christian, do you have any last words?

Christian Bruch

See you next week, hopefully. That's my last word.

Looking forward to talk to you, and hopefully in person, but the ones who are then online also will be great to have a joint discussion. Thank you.

Maria Ferraro

Looking forward.

Operator

Thanks a lot. With that, we're going to conclude this call.

Thanks.

Maria Ferraro

Bye-bye.