Asker Healthcare Group AB

Asker Healthcare Group AB

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 10, 2026

Operator

Welcome to Asker Healthcare Q4 earnings call 2025. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode.

During the questions-and-answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key five on their telephone keypad. Now, I will hand the conference over to CEO Johan Falk and CFO Thomas Moss.

Please go ahead.

Johan Falk

Thank you, and welcome to our Q4 presentation for Asker. I'm happy to present this another robust earning growth quarter for us.

I usually say that one of the best markets to be in is medical supplies, device and equipment, and regardless how nervous the world is or financial hard the climate is in the world, we never give up helping our loved ones. From we're born to we pass away, we need these supplies, and that's what gives this fantastic market very stable.

Q4 isolated, if we just summarize it first, we had a good quarter despite the headwind from tough comps in North and the FX. Net sales were up 9% to 4.7 billion.

Adjusted EBITA increased by 16% to 470 million driven by strong performance in West and Central especially. We had some tough comps, as I mentioned, in North.

The underlying business to regions, municipalities, and private players in Nordic are still very strong. Once in a while, you get this extra orders from different areas.

This time 2024, we had deliveries to the Ukraine war and the preparedness across the Nordic regions, the comps were a bit tough. The underlying business is performing well.

I'm happy to say that we reached the EBITA margin of 10%. As that's one of our financial targets.

Q4 is the strongest quarter of the year, we will see some weaker numbers for a while. It's always good to feel that you can break the ceiling of 10%, we're very proud of that.

Our cash flow was very good in the quarter as well. Even though we did four acquisitions in the quarter and total of 14 during the full year, our leverage maintained at 2.26, which is good.

We have a very, very strong pipeline for new acquisitions coming the next year. Oops.

Thank you. All right.

Looking at the full year then, the best way to follow Asker as an investor or if you're interested in our company is to look at the rolling 12 months, I would say. It's a stable, slow-moving, but in the right direction, and we're proud to see that we're exceeding our financial targets.

The most important promise I have to you as investors is the adjusted EBITA growth of over 15%, and despite the headwind and tough comps, we have 17% growth, which I'm very happy to see. The RORC, the operational important measure to be a working-capital-light company, we have 67% on a stable level.

On a rolling 12 months, even though we reached 10% in Q4, rolling 12 is 9.5% and continue to increase, which is good to see. Net debt 2.26, giving us headroom together with the strong cash flow to continue our M&A journey.

For the first time as a listed company, the board propose a dividend of 30%, which is 39 öre per share. Looking at the longer time series, which I like to do because I've been in now many, many years, and hopefully many years to come as well.

We have a very exciting future ahead of us consolidating this market, and we have seen well above 15% CAGR over the years quarter by quarter. I know that some people are a bit nervous with one quarter and tough comps coming in, but the underlying business is performing very well.

The twin engine, as we call it, with organic growth as the highest priority to grow faster than the market and get some efficiency gains, together then fueling the second engine of M&A, has delivered quarter-by-quarter growth above 15%, which we looking forward to deliver as well going forward. That's the summary of the quarter.

I'll leave the word to you, Tom, to go through the detailed financials.

Thomas Moss

Great. Thanks, Johan.

Let's go through the numbers in a bit more detail just to add some colour to what Johan has said. If I start with the group as a whole, net sales in Q4 up 9%, of which -1% organic, -4% from FX, and the adjusted EBITA in Q4 up 16%, -3% organic, -3% from FX.

I'll come back to the different regions in a little bit more detail in a second. As Johan said, the big picture, the big story is of course good, solid performance both in West and Central and moderated by those tough comps in North.

I think the important thing from our perspective is to be comfortable that the underlying organic growth is very much for us to deliver on that target to be faster than the market. If we make that adjustment for those tough comps in 2024, we're confident that we're still doing that.

The other headline note, perhaps, and Johan touched on it, the EBITA margin reaching 10% for the first time. There's always some variation between the quarters, and Q4 tends to be the strongest quarter of the year.

Even so, a nice milestone for us to reach. Then if I turn to the right-hand side of this picture, the full year, very much in line with what we've seen all the way through the year and what we see in Q4.

Organic growth of adjusted EBITA at 4%, strong contribution from acquired growth 16%, FX headwind that we've had all year and was particularly strong towards the end of the year of -3%. Overall, we're delivering adjusted EBITA growth of +17% and, as Johan said, above our 15% external target.

If I turn to the business areas one by one, let's start with Business Area North. Also here, important for us to be comfortable and confident that the core business, as Johan mentioned, continues to perform well.

Obviously, the growth rate figures are significantly affected by the lower project-based sales that we've talked about a lot through the course of the year, and we estimate those to have been around 350 million of lower sales year on year as a result of that. Also important for us to repeat that we remain optimistic.

We see this as an area of lots of activity going forward and lots of opportunity for us, but the timing remains uncertain. Also in North, we should just touch on the new distribution centre that we've talked about progressing very nicely down in Gothenburg, putting in some of the automation and some of the other technical installations during the quarter and going very well.

We expect the operations to be up and running towards the second half of 2026, and then us really starting to get the efficiency gains and the benefits into the P&L during 2027. Then if we look at the full-year numbers on the far right-hand side, again, I think no great surprise.

The adjusted EBITA growth down at 9% for the negative reasons that I've described, and net sales down 4% in the region full year. Business Area West, a strong performance from Region West.

Net sales up 20%, adjusted EBITA up 36% in Q4, and the margin moving nicely above 9%. Actually, when we look at Region West, we see a very broad base of activity and improvements across the countries and across the companies in the region.

Both that strong focus on organic growth and operation improvements, plus, of course, the very positive contributions that we've got from the M&As that we've done, particularly the larger deals, HSL that we did at the beginning of 2025 and Scan Modul that came in during the middle of 2025. Both of those and all the other M&As contributing very strongly to the region.

A small note, we did have some one-off costs relating to warehouse reorganization in the Netherlands. That money has now been spent, and was a temporary effect just here in Q4.

That affects the organic EBITA growth a little in the quarter. We expect to see the efficiency benefits of that coming through during 2026.

Full-year figures on the right-hand side, good to see adjusted EBITA growth at 39%, net sales growing at 20% on a full-year basis. Then turning to our third region, Region Central, also a strong performance in Region Central.

Net sales up 17%, adjusted EBITA up 44% in the quarter, and also pleasing to see that the margin moving, again, above 9%. As I've talked about before, we've really focused on driving margin in Region Central, and it's good to see that both the newly acquired companies have performed strongly.

They really help improving the margin mix, but they also, of course, help with the top line and the growth in the region. Actually, the organic focus on margin improvements in some of our older businesses in the region is also bearing fruit.

We see those efficiency benefits coming through, and a bit of a focus on phasing out some lower-margin product categories in some of our companies. On a full-year basis, adjusted EBITA growth up 52%, with a big chunk of that, of course, coming from the acquired growth, but organic growth also delivering very strongly for Region Central during the year.

Then net sales growth a little slower, and a little slower on the organic growth you see there, but as I've said, we are occasionally happy to sacrifice a little bit of growth to get the margins up, and that's what we've seen in Region Central. A brief word on RORC, EBITA of net working capital, our key internal performance metric, keeping the organization, keeping the operations focused on cash and cash delivery.

Happy to see that that is maintained at a high level. I've talked about it before, but we're always pulled in two directions on this metric because the M&As that we do tend to have a lower working capital utilization efficiency, and we're constantly diluting the overall group picture.

We're working to improve things the whole time. As those two things pull in different directions, to deliver a flat result on an ongoing basis is actually something that we're very happy with.

It shows that the business is working and focusing on the right things and generating plenty of cash that we use to fuel the M&A engine that Johan mentioned. Actually, we can see a little bit of here on the next page when we look at the cash flow.

Solid cash flow, full year and in Q4. The good performance on the top line, of course, contributing to that, but also, as we keep emphasizing, this real focus on working capital efficiency delivering.

Full-year CapEx running at a slightly higher run rate than I think is normal for this business, but we've talked about that as well, where we have the big new investment in the warehouse in Gothenburg, which, as I say, is progressing nicely. Then you also see on this page we had a relatively high level of acquisitions in 2025 post-IPO, but that was funded to some extent by the equity that we took in during the IPO that you see on the financing line on this slide.

Then just one more for me before I hand it back to Johan. Stable leverage just below 2.3, also pleasing to see that this part of the model is working well for us, giving us the capacity to continue to drive the acquisition agenda using our own cash flow.

We obviously remain extremely committed to our 2.5x threshold, and we're confident that we can manage that continued acquisition agenda and use our strong own cash flows to continue to buy interesting and exciting businesses around Europe. With that, I hand it back to Johan.

Johan Falk

Thanks, Tom. Talking a little bit more about acquisitions, our second engine then.

2025 was an exceptional year. We had a little bit extra cash coming from the IPO where we used this to buy three platform acquisitions, as so the activity have been a little bit above normal.

But 14 signed acquisitions in 2025. We entered into four new countries, four new markets, and continuing with a strong pipeline going forward.

I think we now have come, I don't know, halfway to the fully consolidated Europe. We are now present in 19 markets, and a very, very nice and interesting years ahead of us continue our journey being the market leader in this market.

It has been very good to see how we can attract the best niche players across Europe in different markets and being very disciplined when it comes to quality of the business, quality of management, and also being disciplined on multiples. As we have mentioned before, we pay usually 6 to 8 times for normal deals, a little bit more for bigger platforms, but that has been very, very good to see that our strategy continue to deliver.

If we dig down into two examples, which is good to do, it's all about numbers in this quarterly report, but for us, it's delivering some 70,000 boxes per day ending up at the nurses', doctors' offices with critical products and solutions. One of those companies is Van Heek Medical.

The first one that I'm going to present is in the same area that we are very strong already in the Netherlands. They are a leading provider of medical supplies in the Benelux region.

They've been around for very long time, actually since 1926. This is a good example how we buy sometimes three-generation companies with very, very good and stable business in their own niche.

This company are providing branded and private-label medical supplies for diabetes, incontinence, and wound care primarily to home care pharmacies and nursing home in the Benelux region. Some 350 million SEK in revenue and a little bit more than 60 employees, it's a good representation of how an acquisition can look like.

Also, a positive addition to our EBITDA margin. The next example is Inomedicus.

This is a more niche company, highly niche actually, with urology and prostate cancer selling to specialists across Europe. Here is a good example of how it's not only about supplies, device, and equipment, but rather the competence in a therapeutic area where you need a mix of products, a mix of services, and also expertise in software and solutions.

Being a partner to health care, you need to be an expert in understanding the nurses' and doctors' everyday life and put together a basket and competence that make their life easier. That's the type of company we buy.

Together, we bought more than 60 companies. We're becoming stronger as a group, using the efficiency and scale to be able to attract more companies and help the health care sector in a good way.

Two good examples, and we're very happy to have them on board. If I just would summarize the Q4 then, solid quarter with an adjusted EBITDA growth of 16%, reaching the EBITDA margin of 10%, which is great to see.

Strong development in West and Central driven by acquisitions and operational improvements. As Tom and I have mentioned, the tough comps in North is of course disappointing that we didn't get those deals that we got in '24, but going ahead, we think that this area could come in with some very attractive deals in the future as well.

14 signed acquisitions, all of them margin accretive, we're happy to see that the companies we buy actually have a positive mix effect on our EBITDA margin as well. All in all, a good year, and we continue to deliver on our twin engine, and with a strong cash flow, which is very, very important, we see no reason why 2026 shouldn't be as exciting as the previous years as well.

With that, I think we stop the summarizing part and go to Q&A.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad.

The next question comes from Carl Ragnerstam from Nordea. Please go ahead.

Carl Ragnerstam

Good morning. It's Carl here from Nordea.

A couple of questions. Firstly, in North, quite impressive margins standalone, but especially adjusting for the defense volumes as you also mentioned.

Can you help us understand a bit the margin drivers to this delta? Was it the positive mix in the quarter with smaller pass-through products, and also especially if you compare it to the Q3 margin that was quite a bit lower, right?

Thomas Moss

Shall I take that one, Johan? Thanks, Carl.

Good question. I think the slightly trite and simplistic answer is you might have expected the margin to dip a little bit in North year on year because we have lost or we have not repeated some of the GDE business, which does come in at slightly higher margin.

The reality is actually the rest of the business has been doing very well. It has had a good quarter.

When I dive into the details of individual companies and individual areas with individual companies, we see a broad-based, strong performance across the core distribution operations. There are no big one-off effects that are driving that.

Fundamentally, our core operations in North are capable of delivering 13%, 14% EBITDA margin. Q4 is always the strong quarter.

I think that's always to note, and especially when you do a sequential comparison. You go from the weakest quarter, Q3, to the strongest quarter, Q4, so that you perhaps shouldn't read too much into that.

If you look over the 12 months, the northern region even without GDE is capable of delivering 13%, 14% EBITDA margin. That's pleasing for us to see.

Carl Ragnerstam

No, that's very clear. Looking into North, you had the 175 million top-line impact on organic sales meaning that underlying organic growth in North is low single digits, I guess.

Entering Q1, do you see any reasons why that pace shouldn't be kept at the underlying pace, that is, given that I think we're exiting all of the defense comps in Q1, right?

Thomas Moss

I can perhaps say a few words about that as well. Obviously, there is still uncertainty about timing of this new lumpy business that we still expect and hope to see.

I do think the fundamentals in North, it is a very stable business, and it is moving in the right direction, and we are doing lots of the right things across all of our companies and all of our countries in North. If we take a sort of a step back and view North without the lumpiness, there's no reason to expect some dramatic acceleration or deceleration in the fundamental momentum in North.

No.

Johan Falk

Maybe in addition to that, I mean I I think we have a a good 2026 ahead of us where we will hopefully deliver on our financial targets as we have done many, many years before. We should also say that we're investing in the warehouse, which, of course, is a very exciting thing to see.

This this business is a in the end game about efficiency, scale, robustness, and to to allow ourselves to invest as we do in Gothenburg and other areas. I I think that's an important part of it.

That will of course affect us a little bit when you do such a big thing. The underlying business once again stable and robust.

You can expect us to, with this investment, of course, it some disturbance in some quarters could happen.

Carl Ragnerstam

Don't not to raise expectations too high, in addition to what you say, but nothing spectacular. Okay.

That is very clear. Then in West you have the new logistics center.

What is the sort of net sales and EBITDA impact from the ramp of that? Do you expect it continuing in Q1 as well?

Thomas Moss

Sorry, Carl. Say the last sentence again.

Carl Ragnerstam

The ramp-up of the new logistics center in the Netherlands, what was the sales and EBITDA impact from that during the quarter, and do you expect sort of elevated cost in Q1 as well?

Thomas Moss

Understood, yeah. The sales impact, minimal stroke zero.

We took a little bit less than €1 million of extra cost in the quarter that weighs down the result a little bit in West in the quarter. That's money that's spent.

There is no continuation of that cost coming into 2026. The reorganization is done.

Carl Ragnerstam

Okay. Very clear.

That's all for me. Thank you.

Johan Falk

Thank you.

Thomas Moss

Thanks, Carl.

Operator

The next question comes from Albin Nordmark from SB1 Markets. Please go ahead.

Albin Nordmark

Yes, thanks, and good morning, Johan and Tom. Just want to zoom in on CapEx.

Quite high here historically at 223 million, ending the year at 3.5% of sales. Obviously Gothenburg and the new warehouse in Netherlands is some of that.

Can you give us any guidance of what to expect here entering '26?

Thomas Moss

Yes, I can take that. The total cost of house in Gothenburg is a little bit more than 300 million, approximately 300 million SEK.

Half of that cost has now come in 2025. The other 150 million-ish will be spread out relatively evenly through the rest of 2026.

Albin Nordmark

All right. So, 150 million for 2026.

CapEx as a whole then?

Thomas Moss

CapEx as a whole, this is a relatively CapEx-light business on an ongoing basis. Generally we don't have big bits of equipment, machinery, those sorts of things.

Our heaviest investment is in, for example, the high-tech automation machines, for example, the things that are a big chunk of the CapEx that are going into the warehouse in Gothenburg. Once that's gone, we should return back to a more normal CapEx level, which I estimate will be somewhere around 2% of revenue.

That's the kind of rough run rate, and of course it will vary a little bit down over time. In the normal circumstance, that's roughly where we

Albin Nordmark

All right. Thanks, and understood.

Then just looking at Note 2 here, I think some changes in accounting for goods and services in this quarter versus the last quarters. Now we see that services is some 21% of sales.

Could you please comment on that?

Thomas Moss

That's just a technical change in definitions. There's no real change in the business.

Note 2 is a technical note, which I'm not sure is especially revealing. We had a technical change in definition in one of our larger units, which explains the change.

There's no fundamental change in the actual business underlying it.

Albin Nordmark

All right. Thanks.

That's all for me. Thanks a lot.

Operator

The next question comes from Jakob Lembke from SEB. Please go ahead.

Jakob Lembke

Yes. Hi, and good morning.

My first question sort of want to come back to the profitability in North here in the quarter. The way I have understood it is that these defense sales you've had in the past have quite strong profitability, and given that you sort of lose that year over year, my sense is that the underlying margin increase in North is actually very strong.

I'm just wondering if, yeah, you could come back and sort of highlight what initiatives that has driven this or, yeah, what is behind that really?

Thomas Moss

I think you're right in terms of the way you read the numbers, Jakob. The defense and preparedness contracts have typically been higher margin than the average.

When we look into the numbers, they were a slightly lower amount higher in Q4 year on year, but net-net you're right. You might have expected the loss of those to have resulted in a lower margin in Q4.

I come back a little bit to the answer I gave to Carl earlier. It is quite broad-based across the operations, across the companies, across the markets.

Q4 is typically a strong margin quarter, but there isn't actually one individual or even just two or three small individual elements that have contributed to that. Fundamentally, the business in North and that combination of companies, customers, and whatever is capable of delivering 13%, 14% margin.

I understand it in a way it would be easier if I could point to one or two initiatives that have driven that, but actually it's relatively broad-based across our operations and countries in North.

Jakob Lembke

That's understood. I also follow up on the margin in North.

As was mentioned previously, it's a quite big step-up from Q3, and I think you were at around 14% also for the first half of this year. The question is really would you say the sort of, yeah, margin in between the quarters here in 2025 is representative for 2026, or, yeah, how should we think about the seasonality?

Thomas Moss

I think that's going to be an important topic. Q3 is always our weakest quarter.

It's from a margin perspective, without being too simplistic about it, it's driven by the holiday period. We have a business that is a little bit quieter through that extended Nordic holiday period, and Q3 is the lowest-margin quarter.

Q4 is the highest-margin quarter. When you try to do that sequential analysis, it sometimes looks like there is a sort of a big jump or something has changed in the business.

The reality is it hasn't. It's simply about the amount of volume that is flowing through our operations.

I would also say that 2025 has been a year where we haven't had very much of the lumpiness on top, the GDE, the preparedness on top. When you look at the margin profile in Region North in 2025, you have quite a good picture of what a normal underlying margin in North would be through the course of a year.

Jakob Lembke

Just to follow up, I guess you would do lower volumes in Q1 compared to Q4, and should we also assume that you should do lower margin in Q1 compared to Q4?

Thomas Moss

Yes, the margin doesn't wildly dramatically change, and certainly internally we're always looking at rolling 12, as Johan mentioned. Q3 is the weakest margin, Q4 is the strongest margin.

Sequentially, the margin in Q1 will always be lower than the margin in Q4, all else equal.

Jakob Lembke

That's very clear. Then my next question is on West where, if I get it correctly, it sounds that the sort of organic EBITDA growth if you remove this one-off cost is around mid single digits here in Q4.

Is that a reasonable level sort of to expect going forward?

Thomas Moss

That's a reasonable conclusion to come to, yep.

Jakob Lembke

Good. Then also if you would like to comment any on the profitability in Central, which I think looks strong both driven by acquisitions, but also on an organic basis if there's something behind that.

Thomas Moss

Yes, I could maybe take that one. The observation is right.

The same applies for Central as it does for the other regions. Q4 tends to be the strongest margin quarter.

I would say, and I think we've mentioned this a little bit in the past as well, we have had a strong focus on margin in Business Area Central. It's been a key topic for the leadership down there.

We've been looking at how we rationalize the range, how we take out low-margin products, how we start to gain some benefits of economies of scale, and we have got a particularly positive mix benefit coming in from the M&As that we've done in Central as well. It's a combination of factors that we are happy to see are bearing fruit.

Typically, when we look across the group as a whole, when we do our five years backwards-looking analysis on margin, we see that approximately half the margin benefit comes from M&A mix, and approximately half comes from our organic operational efficiency type programs. Now, that will vary quarter by quarter, region by region.

It will vary a bit over time, but if you want a little bit of guidance to think about where margin improvement is coming from very, very simplistically and very crudely, it's about half from M&A mix and half from organic activities.

Jakob Lembke

Good. Then just finally coming back to a question on the capital expenditure.

I guess if we disregard all of this CapEx to the distribution center, would you say that that is a sort of normalized level that we can expect going forward?

Thomas Moss

I think so. We've discussed this here as well whether that's appropriate to do because as this business grows, as Johan mentioned, we will look to drive economies of scale.

We will look to find consolidation activities. As we run a highly decentralized model, so that's not our main focus.

Over the medium term, there will be benefits to come from finding those consolidation activities. You might argue that, okay, it was the Gothenburg warehouse this year, maybe it's a warehouse in Central Europe in 3 years' time or something.

Yes, sort of simplistically, short-term mathematically, if you take out the Gothenburg warehouse, you have a CapEx which is sort of in line with our normal run rate. I don't want you to take that to mean that I'm promising that we might not invest in another big new warehouse in 3 years' time because we probably will.

Jakob Lembke

Okay. That sounds fair.

That's all from me. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Erik Cassel from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.

Erik Cassel

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

First, I want to sort of dwell a bit on your capacity to do M&A now in '26. First, if we're looking at the sort of debt items outside of your definition of net debt as contingents and put-call options, what's the sort of timing of payments you're seeing for those?

Because that's close to a billion now. I'm just thinking if they may hit now in H1 or we could expect, for example, a low M&A pace at the start of the year.

Just generally anything on that would be helpful.

Thomas Moss

Yep, I can take that one. Good, fair question, Erik.

We have approximately 450 million that will go out during H1 for earn-outs. Of that 900+ that you referred to, approximately half of it will flow out in earn-out payments in H1 2026.

Of course, you can imagine we're super aware of that. We see that.

It's in all of our cash flow forecasting and our M&A agenda, and it's built into the models. It's a core and regular part of the business.

It's slightly higher this year than next year because the remaining 450, 500 million in that liability flows out over the next 3 years. You can imagine that the amounts are a bit lower in 2027, 2028, and so on.

The answer to the heart of your question is no, we don't see that as a limiting factor. The business generates a lot of cash.

It generates a lot of cash quickly. This is a well-known element of our model that we build in, and we're confident that we can do the 10 to 15 deals a year, the 10+% EBITA extra contribution from M&As that we will buy through the course of the year and maintain leverage below 2.5 and pay out the earn-outs.

Sorry, that was a very long answer to your question. I hope it made sense.

Erik Cassel

No, no, it's good. It's good.

On that as well, I noticed that the sort of proportion of contingents and earn-out and put-calls was a proportion of the acquisitions kind of a bit higher than normal. I just wanted to ask now that we have, I guess, another upcoming 500 million at least from these two acquisitions you closed now recently, are you structuring these sort of deals any differently now with a smaller part of cash out to sort of be able to keep the M&A pace as your targets?

Johan Falk

No, I wouldn't say so. We have over the years bought 100% of the shares as a standardized deal with 70% to 30% 70% to 80% payout at the start, and then 2- to 3-years earn-out model.

That's where we are, and sometimes it's a bit more, sometimes a bit less. We're not adjusting this to keep up the pace and kind of as I partly read your question, that we're keeping up the pace but increasing our debt going forward, that's not the model.

We will have a proportionally the same earn-out, dividend, and cash out every year. Since we're growing with 15%+, we can continue to buy 15% more earnings.

Everything it's kind of scales up going forward. We've done this now for over a decade with the same model, I see no reason to be worried about that.

Good cash flow. If anything, we're buying better and better companies.

Our position is stronger. Looking 5 years ahead rather than 5 years backwards, I'm more positive to the future than I am for the past, to be honest.

Thomas Moss

Actually, I can add, Erik, the trend actually is in the other direction very, very slightly, as I say, when we have this conversation in July when we've reported the Q2 numbers. That liability that sits, as we say, at about 900 million today will sit at 500 million or something because a large portion of it will have been paid out.

The reason why there's quite a large chunk flowing out now is actually because a number of the businesses that came to the end of their earn-out in 2025 have performed exceedingly well. For us, it's a good sign.

The businesses are doing well, they're contributing, and they continue to contribute and will continue to contribute going forward even after the end of the earn-out period. Yeah.

Johan Falk

Maybe the last comment here, our business is so stable and slowly moving in the right direction, which also means that we have a very good visibility. Actually internally, we're discussing Q4 '26 and Q1 '27 when it comes to acquisitions.

For us, '26 is almost history for us, even though we're just starting. We have a very good visibility and control over our cash flow thanks to the stable business and the headroom to 2.5.

This is the least thing I think we should be worried about.

Erik Cassel

Perfect, and that was a great segue to my next question as well. Could you perhaps talk a bit about how you're viewing comps into '26 and also talk about how much potential volumes that we could see from defense?

If you think there's any areas of the business that will end up being mentioned when we have this end-of-year call next year as having been tough comps or something that sort of distorts the image of earnings that you've then reported?

Johan Falk

If I just start on a high level, then you can detail this, and I think '20 '25, if we start with '25 and '24, '24 was a normal year when it came to the acquisition and operations, but we had this defense and the Ukraine war that gave us some extra deals on top. '25, unfortunately, did not have those deals to the same extent.

We had some of the what we call GDE orders, but not to the extent we had hoped for. '26, we hope that this will be part of the year, but I'll be very clear to tell you when things are coming in so we don't need to disappoint anyone.

It's as I see it, we have a market with 1,300 billion SEK, which is the value of this market. On top of this, we have some extra volumes coming from the defense right now.

Back in the days, we had it from COVID. When these orders come, they kind of change the picture in comps, but the underlying business is the same.

Hopefully we will get some extra of this business, but we will come back to it when and if it comes. The other part of this year will be this investment in Gothenburg, which could have a little bit of extra cost, and my philosophy when doing this is so important to be robust in having dual tracks and possibilities to deliver to the customer regardless if there's some delays or problems, maybe a little bit of extra cost could come in to that.

Hopefully not, but I'm just saying what we see in the next year to come. Then, hopefully we'll just continue to see some positive effect from our scale and growth, and if anything, I feel that when we now are a listed company, we're growing bigger, more and more suppliers are turning to us and want us to take on their lines, more and more customers are turning to us.

I think every year becomes a little bit better going forward. I also don't want to raise expectations above our financial targets, but I have a good feeling for '26, and it shouldn't be any extraordinary things at this year.

What do you say, Tom?

Thomas Moss

No, I think it's a good summary. I don't have anything to add.

Erik Cassel

Can I just ask on a follow-up, is there any part of the business that you think have tough comps coming into '26? Like home care, for example, in West did really well in '25.

Do you think that means they have challenging comps in '26? If you have any examples of that, I think that would be helpful.

Thomas Moss

I think it depends a bit how you think about it, Erik. Obviously, the organic growth in West in the first 9 months of this year was boosted by increased patient numbers.

We shouldn't expect the same growth rates, the same extremely high growth rates. It's not like this is going to go into reverse.

That now is in the base, and we will continue to grow organically from that new base. It's tough in the sense that we can't deliver 15%, 20% growth every quarter organically.

There's no reason why we shouldn't deliver the 4%, 5%, 6% organic growth from a new, higher base.

Johan Falk

I think we should come back to our most important statement: our target to grow total earnings more than 15%, we feel very comfortable about going forward. Organically, we should grow faster than the market, which is growing with some 3+%.

We're buying niche market leaders which perform that way. Of course, sometimes it goes a little up or down, but as a group, we have been doing that for many, many years, so that's what you should expect.

Our bottom-line EBITDA margin of 10% goal, we are slowly but steadily going towards the 10% and breaking that ceiling as we did in Q4 in total as well thanks to mix effect. We're buying company over 10% EBITDA margin, and we get some scale effect and positive effects from the business.

However you do your Excel sheets, at the end of the day make sure it comes to those conclusions, and anything that is super extreme upwards or downwards, you should be relaxed about it because it usually comes to those conclusion and view this business on the longer term. That's the best advice from me.

Erik Cassel

All right. Thank you very much.

I'll jump back in queue.

Operator

There are no more questions at this time. I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Johan Falk

All right. Thank you so much, and I'll see you in 3 months' time.

Have a good day.