Bravida Holding AB

Bravida Holding AB

147.00
SEK
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7.00EPS
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25.21BMarket Cap
Feb 10Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 18, 2026

Mattias Johansson

Hi and good morning, everyone, and welcome to this presentation of the fourth quarter 2025. I'm representing Bravida.

My name is Mattias Johansson, and...

Petra Vranjes

Petra Vranjes here as well.

Mattias Johansson

We are the one who will take you through this presentation today. Again, a warm welcome, and then I think we kick it off.

As Bravida are in four different countries. This is all numbers, and I think maybe the most interesting thing is that we now are 13,400 employees instead of 14,000, and that is just a sign of that we have scaled down in geographies where the market has been a bit too challenging to be able to continue to be profitable in our business.

We have a sales top line at 28 billion plus, and I will now take you through the fourth quarter's highlights. Net sales stabilize, and the negative organic growth is, you can say, improving or less negative.

We have -2 organic growth and, or net sales is -2%, and organic is -3%. Acquisitions contribute with 3%, and then we have FX effects around 2%.

Service is down 3%, while installation is down 1%. We see fantastic performance in Denmark, the turnaround we have been talking about for the last two years is something we have delivered on, and I expect Denmark to continue to improve the coming quarters as well.

Norway is also adding to the improved margin for the whole group, and all in all, we are actually improving the margin with 60 basis points to 8.1% EBITA margin in the quarter. As I said, Denmark solid performance is, of course, very happy to see that we have delivered on what we have guided you on, but we are also very confident that this journey can continue another couple of quarters.

We expect '26 to be a bit better for Denmark compared to '25. Earnings per share is up 17% in the quarter.

We see strong order intake in Finland and good order intake in Sweden and Denmark. Cash flow, as we've been talking about the last meetings with you guys, is improving, and we had really strong cash flow, 1.2 billion almost in the quarter compared to 756 million.

Now we are almost at our target again regarding the cash conversion. It's up to 79%, and I think that this will continue to improve the coming quarters as well.

Cash conversion is at 1.1, we have a strong balance sheet, and it's improved sequentially also. If we look at the full year and the highlights for the full year, you all know that we have had a negative growth, -5%.

The margin is up compared to last year, 5.9%, which I think is a very strong margin in this market condition. Order intake, all in all, up 5%, and the order backlog is and have been on very stable levels throughout the whole year and is also improving.

Earnings per share is up 16%, and the Board of Directors proposes a dividend of SEK 3.80, and that is an increase compared to last year, and it's also equal to 63% of earnings per share. This is the slide of how the dividend has developed the years since we IPO'd in 2016, and you can see that we, on average, have increased the dividend with 14%, and we are paying out, as I said, 63% of the earnings, and we still have a strong balance sheet at 1.1 times EBITDA.

Cash conversion improving, we think that we have a solid or strong position going forward to continue to deliver on M&A and invest in Bravida as a company. If we look at the bridge regarding the sales, we started at 8.1 billion.

We are deducting 200 million plus from organic growth, M&A is adding another 200 million, and then we have currency effect around 200 million as well. That means that we end up in 7.9 billion.

If you adjust for the currency, we are flat year-over-year, and I think that is also a sign that the market is improving a bit. Our strategy is still focused on restricted project selection.

We're focusing on margins, and that has, of course, resulted in a lower margin, but also an improved margin. All in all, this action has led to that we are improving our earnings per share with 17% in the quarter and 16% for the full year.

I think we have done a really good job. I'm very proud of all the fantastic people within Bravida who has saved cost, worked with efficiency, and be very close to our many loyal customers as well.

If we look at the earnings, you can see that it is up from 604 million to 641 million. The margin is 8.1% compared to 7.5%, and, again, a fantastic job in a very difficult market.

The Danish business improved to 6.6% from 4% in the quarter. Norway presented a 7.7% margin compared to 7.5%.

Then you see a decrease in Sweden on very high level, 9.6%, and then we have Finland on 3.4%. Maybe Finland is a bit disappointing in '25, but me and the whole team is doing everything we can, and we are pretty confident that Finland will improve in the coming years and the coming quarters, even if they will have a quite tough start of the year.

But '26 will be much better year in Finland as well. If we look at the order intake and the backlog, the order intake is up 11% year-over-year.

Fantastic to see that some of the higher activity is actually turning into more business. The order backlog is on stable levels and is improving 3% year-over-year, and in the order backlog we have more projects that are not that long that we have had before, we are ready to capture the growth when the market turns, and I think that is a very good position to be in.

Organic growth in the order backlog is 5%. When we talk about sustainability, I'm very proud that we can present 59% decrease in the CO2 emissions from all our vehicles.

We are also improving our safety work for all our employees, and it's down to 4.9. Our target is 5.5 on group level.

Last year we had 5.9, and I think this is one of the best in the whole industry, and that is a good thing that our people in Bravida is coming home from their daily job every day in a safe way. We especially see the improved LTIFR in Denmark and Finland, which is very good because they have been a bit worse or a lot worse than Sweden and Norway before.

It's good that they are keeping up the competition and improving this, and that is depending on increased focus and good work, of course. Norway and Sweden are better than the group target that is on 5.5.

On acquisitions, which is one way we can use the balance sheet and create value for us as a company and for you as a shareholder, we will continue through acquisitions. It's an important part of our strategy.

We know that we have done maybe too few acquisitions in your perspective, but there is a reason for that, because we haven't been able to find good enough targets that we have been willing to invest in. When we sometime have found targets that we see has been very stable in the downturn of the market, they haven't really been willing to sell yet.

We have an active pipeline. We are focusing a lot on this, and we hope and think that '26 will be a better year regarding this acquisitions.

The pipeline is strong, and the discussions are many and active. There are slightly longer lead times.

We also have divested one part of Bravida. We have been selling ABK, and the closing of this deal will be somewhere late Q1 or early Q2.

They had an annual sale of 472 million and had an earnings of 30 million plus. We own 87.5% of this company.

When you're doing your analysis going forward, you need to deduct this from the total sales and earnings going forward. I think this is a good deal for us.

This is a fantastic company, and ABK will get better owners in the perspective of scale advantages, knowledge, etc., they can continue their journey and improve as a company. We still think that the high-voltage market is interesting, but we want to be in another part of that segment where you have more technique and maybe less excavators, etc.

We wish ABK good luck and the new owners good luck as well and hope that they can continue the journey they have started within Bravida. With that, I hand over to you, Petra.

Petra Vranjes

Thank you, Mattias. Let's look into our divisions or segments, and we will start with Sweden as usual.

We can see that Sweden closed Q4 on flat numbers to the Q4 in 2024, closing on SEK 3.9 billion with an EBITA margin on 9.1%, slightly lower, or 0.5 percentage points lower year-over-year. We are seeing a reduction in services sales and an increase in installation sales.

The reduction in services sales is mainly attributed to the conscious decision we have taken to close down some branches in southern part of Sweden and to focus on margin over sales during 2025. Looking at the full year numbers, Sweden is down 8% on organic level.

It is helped by the acquisition done that Mattias was mentioning as well. We have two acquisitions in Sweden that will generate approximately 360 million on a yearly basis, and this comes in during the 2025 with 3% increase on the sales numbers.

On the EBITA margin, strong execution in Sweden and closing the full year margins on 6.7%. Order intake improved during the year somewhat, and we are closing the order intake for the quarter with 12% increase year-over-year.

The backlog is slightly down, but on par with earlier years' numbers. Sweden, we are doing a organizational change, and that organization came into force in Q1 this year, in January 1st.

As we have taken 20 million in restructuring charges, one-off charges in Q4. We will also seek a continuation on some one-offs into 2026 with approximately 70 to 90 million in the year.

The organizational changes is expected to deliver approximately 65 million on a yearly saving, and that will start ticking off in 2026, not with the full effect, but continue in subsequent years. If we then look at Denmark, Denmark had a very good quarter three, and they continue into quarter four, closing on approximately 2 billion, which is slightly lower year-over-year when we look at the growth.

However, Denmark is delivering a organic growth that is positive, in the quarter 2%, and they are also delivering a strong full year organic growth. Denmark is continuing their turnaround story, and they are doing it very well, executing with pride, and the EBITA margin is delivered in the quarter with 130 million, or 6.6%.

On full year, the expected 5% EBITA margin is delivered and landing on 370 million in Swedish crowns. Denmark is also increasing the service sales somewhat, going up in the quarter to 50% of their sales in service sales.

On a full year basis, it's 47%. Also on the order intake, Denmark is proceeding well, and in the quarter, they are delivering a 90% increase in the order intake, and the backlog is then increasing to 4.5 billion going into 2026.

Norway. Norway has a 9% negative growth year-over-year in the quarter and landing on 1.5 billion.

Norway is coming from a 2024 with quite a good execution on primarily some of the hospitals, but also other projects, a decline in Q4 in this year, and also a decline year-over-year on the full year numbers, closing on 5... and now I can't see, 4%...

5.4 billion. Down a bit.

EBITA margin, Norway is executing very well on. They have been focusing on reducing cost and sizing to the volumes, and are delivering an EBITA margin of 7.7% in the quarter and 6.2% in the full year compared to the 5.9% that they delivered in 2024.

Primarily, the driver is a lower administrative cost in Norway. Order intake is down 11% in the quarter, but if we look at the order backlog, we will see that Norway is stable on the backlog for the full year, slightly up, but very stable numbers.

Going into 2026, they are carrying approximately the same backlog as into 2025. Then finally, looking at the Finland numbers.

Finland is somewhat up in the quarter, 2% growth, of which 1% is attributed to their organic growth and 1% to the acquisition made in Finland during the year. On the full year numbers, we are seeing a decline in Finland, 2.3 billion, and this is due to a tough first half in Finland.

We have seen on the orders booked that Finland booked quite significant orders both in Q3 and continuing in Q4 to also increase the order intake, and thus increasing their backlog to 1.2 billion, starting off 2026 with a strong backlog. On the margin side, Finland closed on 3.4% in the quarter compared to the 6.4 earlier quarter, last year.

This is attributed mainly to the two projects in one region that we took some write-downs in Q3, and those projects are continuing to closure will bring some not so good margins with them for the finalization of the projects. That was on the segments or divisions.

If we then look at the cash flow and net debt as well. Mattias just mentioned that we had a strong cash conversion in the quarter, and the quarter actually delivered more than a billion in cash conversion.

This brings us to a net debt to EBITDA level of 1.1 times EBITDA then. If we exclude the leases, we are down on 0.7 to EBITDA, which is very, very low numbers.

A very good and strong cash conversion, and it landed on 79% for the full year. We are well-funded, and I'm not going to go through all the commercial papers and loans.

These are as they have been earlier quarters, but well-funded as we stand. With that, I hand back to Mattias to take you through the summary and some takeaways.

Mattias Johansson

Thank you, Petra. Summary of the quarter.

It's worth to mention again, I think, that we are improving the margin in the quarter to 8.1%, and it's driven mainly by Denmark, but also that Norway is contributing. Sweden has a high margin.

As are lowering that a bit, but on very high level. EPS increased 17%, which I think is fantastic.

Sales growth is stabilizing on negative the negative side, but is we see some trends in the orders activity in the market, but it's down with 2% throughout the year. With that in perspective, you you all understand that the margin improvement is fantastic.

I think it's well managed and well done from many in in the organization. Installation and service are both down a bit.

We have growth from acquisitions with 3%, and then we have a negative impact from the currency when the SEK has strengthened against the other currencies. We see increased order intake in Sweden, Denmark, and especially in Finland.

Cash flow, as Petra just mentioned, fantastic in the quarter, and the net debt is improving. The Board of Directors is also proposed a dividend of 3.80 per share.

You probably have read that we have a new organization in Sweden starting in the beginning of 2026. You see this gentleman, Lars Täuber, on the slide.

He will be head of Sweden. This is actually three Swedish divisions that are merged into the new Swedish organization.

That is because we want to take out or reach some scale advantages, synergies, be more cost-efficient, but is also a way to ensuring a uniform range of services in all the different parts of Bravida. We think that that will improve our ability to capture the growth and gain some market share when the market comes back.

The history of Lars is that he started some years ago, and he led the turnaround at that time in center around at that time it was called Division Stockholm. He have managed and improved that division together with his team, and then lately he also led the turnaround in the south part of Sweden.

I'm very happy that Lars will accept and tackle this new challenge. I think he is perfect for this role.

The new structure is also meaning that we have a one-off cost in the last year in Q4 at 20 million, and we will see see some more one-off cost in this year '26 around 70 to 90 million, and it will create some savings around 65 million annually. I'm very happy that Lars is in charge of the new Swedish organization, and I'm very confident that this will be a important part of the next step of the next step of the Bravida's history going forward, or creating the new history, you can say.

What about the market? I think you're are very interested.

We think that the service activity will continue to be stable. There will be some challenges in the installation the coming quarters as well, but there are variations between geographies.

External prognosis forecast an annual growth in installation around 4% and stable service demand. I think that hasn't really started yet, but the forecast is a third-party forecast, we have good hope that this will happen in '26 at least, the sooner, the better.

We also see a very high activity in the market, even if it hasn't really turned into new orders yet. There are some favorable market conditions, and I have to mention infrastructure, industry, defense facilities, and data centers.

That is segments that is close to tailor-made for a company like Bravida because we have the competences, we have the resources, and we have the footprint to be able to to use this potential. It doesn't really matter where where this is going to be built because we are there, and we will be there and competing about this.

We will, though, maintain our project selectivity and also our selectivity regarding what customers we are working with. Continued focus on margin, cost control across all projects will drive the margin margin up, and that will be our focus, but we are also ready to focus more on the growth when the market is supporting that move.

With that, I have some upcoming events to to talk about: AGM, 28th of April, and then the next quarter report is on my May 5th. You're very welcome to join those sessions, and then you have one meeting in July and one in October.

With that, we can open up for Q&A.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad.

The next question comes from Oscar Rönnkvist from SEB. Please go ahead.

Oscar Rönnkvist

Thank you, and good morning. My first question was just to be on the balance sheet.

So 1.1 times leverage now, and you also have a divestment. You talk a little bit about the M&A pipeline, which seems to be strong, but I just wanted to hear your thoughts on the leverage.

You have a target of being below 2.5 times. It's pretty far from that at the moment.

Where do you feel comfortable that you will end up, we'll have a sort of a sense of the M&A pace going forward? Thanks.

Mattias Johansson

No, but I think there is, of course, a range where we are comfortable within. I think we are comfortable with everything below 2.5 on that.

With that said, you always need to have some headroom to do things. You're not too close to the 2.5 in leverage.

We have some tools in our toolbox. We have the dividend as one tool.

We have the M&A as another one. Then the board is discussing buybacks also, and that is up for discussion every meeting.

Let's also see how the cash flow continues to develop. You all know that we had quite weak cash conversion 4-5 months ago.

That is something we have improved. We are not really where we want to be, I think this is some kind of mix of everything.

We are comfortable where we are, and we will use the balance sheet in a smart way. When the cash conversion continues to improve, I think we have more tools to use in that box.

Let's see what the board decides. I think we are confident where we are, and we don't think we are on the high end, maybe a bit on the low end maybe, yeah.

Petra, do you want to add something?

Petra Vranjes

No, I would definitely agree with you, Mattias. I think we are standing very, very strong in this situation and have a good toolbox.

We think we are on the low end, we have a lot of opportunities, but we are talking about how to utilize our cash in the best way.

Oscar Rönnkvist

Perfect, thank you. Just a follow-up on that.

I think you've averaged around M&A pace for 400 million a year, around 30% of the EBITDA. Given your pipeline today, do you think that you have enough targets to accelerate that pace?

Or do you feel like that's going to be around half a billion or something in M&A spend? Or do you have room for or even an accelerated pace there?

Mattias Johansson

No, but we have room for an accelerated pace as you say it, and we will accelerate it, but I also think we need to look at the supply in the market as well. We will not do stupid things.

My aspiration is to do more M&As in '26 than we did in '25. If you look some more years back, you see that the 2025 was the lowest year in terms of M&A, and I think we can get close to what we have done earlier years.

Let's hope we are back on normal levels of acquisitions in '26. We think we can accelerate it, or improve it, or do more.

Oscar Rönnkvist

All right. Accelerated from 2025, but more to be in line with sort of the average of the last few years?

Mattias Johansson

I think that is the first step, and let's see what the market looks like and how the balance sheet is used, etc., and what opportunities we have.

Oscar Rönnkvist

Perfect. Thank you.

Just one sort of technical one. At the group wide, the EBITA in the quarter was quite high.

Could you just explain the sort of different factors and if any other division took a hit from that? Thanks.

Petra Vranjes

The group-wide EBITA is upheld by, well, a very good job in Denmark, and that was as expected, as we said earlier, Denmark landed on 5%. A very good job in Norway, we want to say that as well, because Norway is low on the sales side and declining on sales, but have worked very, very hard and executed well on keeping the EBITA margin on a good level.

I would say that Sweden and Finland has also contributed in a good way. Of course, we are all eager to see Finland increasing in their EBITA, not really happy with where they landed the year, but considering a couple of projects that went a bit south, we are okay with Finland as well.

I think it's a combination on securing the prices in the contracts, executing well, and I want to also lift the execution on the selling and G&A or administrative costs that everybody has been working on heavily during the year that is contributing well.

Oscar Rönnkvist

All right, understood. Just wanted to confirm there's no sort of temporary boost in the sort of group eliminations or the sort of positive contribution in the EBITA from the group wide?

Petra Vranjes

There is no temporary boost of the EBITA, and the only negative and one-off that we have in the quarter is the 20 million in Sweden. No temporary boost.

I know that we have got some questions on the 25 million that sits with the group. That is not a temporary boost.

That is money that we actually do have, and it's just reported on the group level for marketing and management fees that we are taking out that landed a bit higher on the group level could as well have been distributed to the divisions.

Oscar Rönnkvist

All right, got it. That was perfectly clear.

I'll step back in line. Thank you.

Mattias Johansson

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Carl Ragnerstam from Nordea. Please go ahead.

Carl Ragnerstam

Good morning. It's Carl here from Nordea.

Couple of questions. Firstly, great to see you reached your previous guidance on the Danish margin, great turnaround.

Looking into '26, you gave some wordings around the continued positive trajectory there. We see strong orders Q4, backlog, clearly decent entering '26.

You've been up to 5.5 before, right? How should we look at the possibilities for Denmark from here, basically?

Mattias Johansson

We have been very kind to you, Carl. Good morning, by the way.

Earlier, I'm being guiding very specific on the Danish business, but I think we're going back and stop guiding in the same clear way as we've done before. My expectation and the management team in Denmark's expectation, I know that Petra supports that as well, is that Denmark will continue to improve because the turnaround we have done is fantastic, remarkable.

With a turnaround like that, it doesn't mean that you just come up to a certain level. It means that you have been improving all processes around bidding, production, focus on cost, etc.

We can now use the great work the Danish team have done, and, of course, that will mean that we can continue to improve the Danish business going forward, but I think I stop with that type of guidance. Also, we really don't know, of course, but we are very confident that it will continue to improve, absolutely.

Carl Ragnerstam

That is very clear. Perfect.

In the market guidance, you obviously have some forecasts. That is not yours, obviously, but around 4% installation growth '26, '27.

You talk about better quotation level yourself, we see it in orders as well. If we take those numbers, external numbers, factoring in your ambition to, I guess, maintain or potentially gain market shares, but you're also conscious around pricing.

How does this square for your outlook, you think?

Mattias Johansson

No, but I think a forecast is a forecast. If the forecast is actually right, then I think the market will be good.

On the price pressure side, that will means that in a low-demand market, the prices go down very quick, but I also know from the 20, yeah, close to 30 years I've been in this industry, when the market comes back, the prices come back quite quick as well. What we think is good is that we have a good level in our order backlog, but we are not full in that perspective.

We are ready to win orders when the market actually let us doing that. We know that some of the competitors, they are quite full already now, and I think our strategy has been that not filling up the order backlog with poor margins in new projects.

I think if the forecast regarding the market condition is correct, then the market will be good, and then we will grow in line with the market, I guess. I still think that is too early to put in your Excel sheet, but let's see.

Let's hope they are right.

Carl Ragnerstam

That's clear. Two questions around pricing.

The first one, what time lag would you say is between general market recovery and the price recovery? I guess it's a lag on the pricing side.

Secondly, where are prices today versus, you'd say, a normalized market, i.e., what upside could it be on the pricing if market recovers? Obviously, it's very difficult question, but if you elaborate on it, it would be good.

Mattias Johansson

It varies between different geographies. It's also in different segments.

There are some interesting segments that we have been mentioning in the market outlook where the competition is a bit different. For example, some of the big infrastructure projects, data centers, the competition is different, and the prices are better because you need to have a certain competence to be able to first understand what you're bidding on and, most importantly, understand how you should produce it and the technique you need to deliver to the customers.

I think the prices in those segments are already today quite good, but they haven't really turned into the orders yet. Then in the normal type of business, then it is differences in geographies.

Of course, there is a bigger price pressure in south part of Sweden and still in Finland compared to some other areas in Denmark or Sweden. Your question about the time lag until the prices goes up, it can be everything from 2 months to 6 months, I guess, or maybe 7.

That is not an exact number, but it goes quite quick. Also, when we have the orders we are producing on, you know that our average project is around 9 months, and that means that then they are finalized, then we can fill up with new, good orders again.

Carl Ragnerstam

Very clear. The final one, if I may, is on cash flow.

Clearly impressive, clear improvement in my book at least. You're flushing out a bit of receivables in the quarter.

Is it you taking a firmer grip on cash collection, or is it anything else in the cash flow we should consider here in the quarter?

Petra Vranjes

I think it's a combination. We have been talking about the large projects that do have a fluctuation in cash conversion, and that will continue.

Then we will see that in the large projects. We will get big advance payments, we will execute, we will have dips where we are actually executing on advances and things like that.

On the large projects, on the very large projects, now we're talking about the billion SEK projects and above, we will see a fluctuation, and that we have to take into consideration. Looking at the cash conversion on a longer term, a year, is much better than quarters, but still, when it comes to our cash conversion, we can, of course, become better.

Yes, to your point, everybody has been really eager to get their invoicing out and to secure cash in the quarter as well, we are taking a stronger grip. We already have good terms and conditions in our contracts, or decent at least, I would say.

It's difficult to move those very much further, but we can absolutely be quicker at getting our invoices out, as most companies can, and to secure a good conversion. I think if you look at the full year, the 79 is a good number.

If you look at each and every quarter, you will see that we are bumping up above the 100 and below the 70 as well, you will see a fluctuation. I think we need to get a bit used to that if we are going to have more of the large projects.

Mattias Johansson

Also that to add to that, Petra, that is also a way we can use our strong balance sheet to be able to participate and compete in those projects. Of course, that has some kind of price tag on it because that is something we can price when we are participating in those projects, because we can, and not many other can.

Petra Vranjes

Exactly.

Carl Ragnerstam

Very clear. That's all for me.

Thank you.

Mattias Johansson

Thank you, Karl.

Operator

The next question comes from Simon Jönsson from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.

Simon Jönsson

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I have a follow-up on Oscar's question on the capital allocation.

I wonder, when do you think that you could come back with more news about what tools you intend to use? You talked about capital allocation tools recently.

Assuming that the cash flow remains good here, because it sounds like there is a limit to the M&A pace near term. Without a high M&A pace, you will be approaching a net cash position.

Can you say anything about that, when we could hear more about that, or is there other factors involved here?

Mattias Johansson

No, but I think it's an ongoing discussion, and that is not a decision of ours. I think this is a decision from the Board of Directors, and they have been discussing this the last couple of meetings how we will use our balance sheet in the most efficient way.

That will continue the coming meetings, I guess. We have an annual meeting coming up in, was it in end of April.

I think that is one kind of formal meeting where you can expect some news maybe, but I don't owe that timing in that perspective. We can just say that we have a really strong balance sheet.

We will use that in a smart way. We prefer to do acquisitions, and as you said, if we can't really speed up the acquisitions, then we need to do something else, of course, with the money.

We are now increasing the dividend a bit, but still, if the forecast is correct, we still have a strong net debt level in the end of the year. I'm pretty sure that the board understands this and are smart in their discussions and decisions.

I'm sorry I can't answer that more specific than that.

Petra Vranjes

We will for sure come back, definitely. We are driving the discussion as well with the board, like Mattias was saying, it's on top of our agenda.

Simon Jönsson

All right. To clarify a bit on the M&A pace, is it fair to assume that you sort of expect or hope for that things will ease a bit here, or you can't see it right now, but you hope that during the year things will significantly ease, or...

Mattias Johansson

No, but this is also what to say, because of the low demand in the market and the tough market condition, we also see that the targets we are discussing with and are doing due diligence on, we see that the quality is not what we expected in some cases, and that means that we are pausing those discussions or actually saying no, thank you. Then there are someone we really, really want to acquire, but they are maybe not ready because they think they have a slightly lower margin that they usually have.

I think this is about using the balance sheet in a smart way, doing the right deals to create as much value as possible for our shareholders. We think when the market is up a bit, then it will be easier to do good acquisitions again.

We are consequent, we are structured in our way of approaching M&As and the way we're doing deals. We also see the deals we have done, even if they are fewer, they are better.

We have a model, and we are sticking to that. We are not stressed.

We know we have a strong balance sheet, and we can use that in different ways. We can make sure that we are creating cash, do smart acquisitions, and then the board can decide how they want to use the rest of it in terms of dividend and maybe share buyback.

Simon Jönsson

All right. Now given the lead times with projects going on for almost a year or so, and currently price pressure, lower margins, is it going to take quite some time before better-margin projects comes through in the margin for the companies you want to acquire, making them willing to sell, or could they be willing to sell even before they see more normalized margins in their books?

Mattias Johansson

Interesting question, and I think that is quite tricky to answer, and I think maybe that's why you're asking it. Agreed to everything you're saying, but still, when it ease up, it goes quite quick.

We also see that some might be forced to sell for some reasons because they can't handle the situation, and then we come in and can be the solution of that one. Again, I can only say that we think that we will improve the speed or increase the speed of our acquisitions in '26 compared to '25.

Maybe it will be a challenge, as you say, to come back to the normal levels we have seen for 10 years before, but that is definitely an ambition we have.

Simon Jönsson

All right. Thanks for that.

Mattias Johansson

Thank you so much.

Operator

The next question comes from Johan Sundén from DNB Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Johan Sundén

Hi, Mattias and Petra. Thank you for taking my questions.

Petra Vranjes

Hey.

Mattias Johansson

Hey, hey.

Johan Sundén

First, from my side, it's a little bit on the data center exposure, and a little bit curious to hear what you see in the market currently. There's been media reports that activity levels in around Nordics has increased lately with a couple of bigger projects being planned.

What are you seeing, and how big proportion of your, say, backlog goes to this specific area?

Mattias Johansson

We see the same. It's not a lot in the existing order backlog.

I think we have got new orders around, is it 300 million in the last quarter or something?

Petra Vranjes

In this quarter.

Mattias Johansson

In this quarter, and pretty much the same in the previous quarter. Still, regarding to the potential, quite small volume.

In the order backlog we have today, it's quite normal order backlog, and a data center order will spice the existing order backlog up, you can say.

Petra Vranjes

That's a nice word.

Mattias Johansson

A bit of Svenglish maybe, I don't know, but...

Johan Sundén

If we look at competition on those kind of orders, you mentioned that competition on the infra side is lower. How many players are there in the Nordics that can take on such a project?

Mattias Johansson

I think actually that the competition is lower, but it's definitely more different because you need to have other types of capabilities. I will take the chance to describe what I mean with this, because we have been doing data centers since 2011.

We know what it takes. What many company underestimates is that when you have a data center, you maybe need 40, 50, 60 white-collars on-site to be managing this project because of the reporting to the client, the safety, the complexity in what materials to source, how to install it, etc.

I think there are players in the market who think they can do data centers, and hopefully they understand it before they price it too low, but it is another type of business. We have done it for 15 years.

The competition is different. It's only the big Swedish, Nordic players who can do this, and some other international players.

It has been very many data centers been built from international players previous years, but that was at the time where there were not a data center market throughout the whole of Europe. I think the market as such means that the international competition is a bit lower in the Nordics because the resources are in other places building it.

It is another competition, absolutely, and we have been doing this for many, many years, we know how to handle it.

Johan Sundén

Excellent. Thanks for the color.

Second question goes to the kind of organic growth profile and how we should think about that in say first half '26. I know that your head count numbers when you ended '25 is still lower than you had on average in Q1 last year.

It might look tough to grow in Q1 with those kind of conditions in place. How do you think we should think?

Mattias Johansson

Absolutely. I think you shouldn't expect an organic growth in Q1.

I think maybe in the late end of Q2 maybe, but it's too early. We don't have those numbers supporting that.

I think I don't know if you have done the analysis, but you shouldn't think about too much organic growth before the summer at least.

Petra Vranjes

No, exactly. I would say the same.

We should all think about the organic growth coming step-wise. Of course, it's different in different markets and with different types of businesses that we are having, but on an overall level coming in step-wise.

We are taking data like you are as well from, for instance, construction companies, where they are in their cycle and how they're booking orders. To Mattias's earlier point, we're also seeing an increased activity for us as well.

Between that and until we take the order, start executing, I would expect second half.

Mattias Johansson

Yeah.

Johan Sundén

Excellent. Very clear.

Then going back a little bit to kind of cash flow dynamics, given the reasoning with the capital location that you have highlighted here, how is your visibility for cash flow during the coming say two, three quarters? Anything particular we should be aware of that can make the cash flow swing in certain direction different compared to kind of historical pattern?

Petra Vranjes

You're already aware of the historical cash flow swinging, like when we have the payouts of dividends and things like that, you have the seasonality effect that you would probably already be thinking about. There are, of course, some pieces that can swing it extremely, and that's, for instance, if we would settle a long-outstanding claim or something like that could, of course, swing it.

I wouldn't expect that, and if that would be late in the year. There are things that could swing if we would onboard a large project, we could get advances that could swing it dramatically, obviously.

Wouldn't expect that in near term either. If we get that, we will most likely announce or something, so that could swing it.

If we have some underlying that could swing in negative direction, we don't really have something severe that could swing the cash flow in negative direction in a major way. Of course, if we are executing on some of the large projects, right now we are estimating the cash flow a minimum of half a year, we're not expecting huge swings at the moment.

Except for seasonality effects and things like that, you should always assume.

Johan Sundén

That's encouraging with the most kind of optionality on the upside on the cash flow going forward. How should we read you then?

The dividend per share will for sure not consume the kind of cash that you should deliver. Are you in long-going discussion for platform acquisition that you want to do, or is it still the M&A pipeline full with kind of bolt-ons?

Mattias Johansson

No, but I think, of course, that is hard for us to guide on those topics you're mentioning. If we have a bigger acquisition, of course we will announce that when we are ready to do that.

For the moment, it's more we know we have a strong balance sheet. We have now released the board's thought about the dividend.

There have been discussions around how we should use the rest in speeding up the acquisitions, try to find more deals to do like you are. The board is pretty much asking the same questions as you are regarding the acquisitions, and then we have discussions around the third tool as well regarding buyback.

Far, they haven't really decided on what to do more than on the dividend, I think you shouldn't read us more than this is the situation. We have a strong balance sheet.

We have announced the dividend. We will continue to do M&A.

We will speed up that if possible, and we think it is. Then regarding buyback, that has been discussions for a time, and that will most likely continue.

When they are ready to announce something, I guess they will.

Johan Sundén

Yeah. That's clear.

Thanks for your answers. I get back in line.

Mattias Johansson

Thank you, Johan.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Johan Dahl from Danske Bank.

Please go ahead.

Johan Dahl

Yes, good morning. Just two questions.

Firstly, on the data center activity, you referred to some 600 million order intake second half in that area. If you compare that activity level with what's going on in sort of predesigned, pre-engineering in your program office, in your special projects business, how do you compare that activity that is sort of preorder and what you've actually taken as orders in the second half of '25?

Mattias Johansson

First we don't have any pre-orders, but there is a lot of bidding, discussion around data centers. If you compare to what we're discussing and maybe see what's happening in the market, the 300 or 600 million you said lately is not a lot.

The potential is a lot bigger, you can say.

Johan Dahl

I understand that. I was just think, okay.

On the further restructuring charges, Sweden, that you talked about during '26, is that something that you're aiming to finalize shortly here, or more sort of something that we should see towards the late part of the year?

Petra Vranjes

As Mattias was saying, we now have Lars Täuber and his team. They are working and executing on what changes they think are reasonable.

Of course, they are in the same situations the rest of us, where the market looks maybe a bit tough in the south still, maybe there are some opportunities, there are definitely opportunities as well in Sweden. They are both looking at how to deliver uniform services across Sweden, and how to do it in the best way, and also looking at how can they turn into growth like we are all looking at, right?

At the same time, they are matching the organization to build the best organization that we can do for Sweden. They will do some more changes, and for that, we will take most probable restructuring charges or one-offs, and we are estimating the 70 to 90 million.

When in time, I cannot tell you right now. We know they will come not all at once, but piecemeal during the year.

If we are going to have any in Q1 or Q2, I cannot say at this moment, but approximately

Johan Dahl

70 to 90

Petra Vranjes

for the full year.

Johan Dahl

Got you. Thanks.

Mattias Johansson

Thank you so much.

Operator

There are no more questions at this time, I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Mattias Johansson

Thank you all for all good questions, and thank you all for listening in and joining this call. We are happy to finally have a report that is a bit more positive in a very tough market.

I think this report is actually really good. We have a good order intake, improved cash flow, EPS up 17%, strong balance sheet, as you all have heard.

We are looking forward to the next report, I think, and also going out and continue to improve Bravida as a business, yeah. Thank you so much.

Petra Vranjes

Thank you, everybody.

Mattias Johansson

Bye-bye.