Humble Group AB

Humble Group AB

5.69
SEK
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2.97BMarket Cap
Feb 05Next Earn

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptOctober 21, 2026

Anders Fredriksson

Good morning and welcome to Humble Group's third quarter presentation. My name is Anders Fredriksson, and I took over as CEO on September 14th, and I'm proud of joining the company and really excited of stepping into this role, but, of course, humble, no pun intended, by the trust given to me.

With me today is our CFO, Johan Lennartsson.

Johan Lennartsson

Good morning, everyone.

Anders Fredriksson

Johan will take us through cash flow and leverage when we come to those slides, and help me answer more detailed financial questions afterwards. As usual, you can send in questions throughout throughout the presentation in the chat, and we will address them when we come to the end of the presentation.

I would like to start with my first weeks and what I will focus on. I have visited a number of companies so far, six to be exactly, and what I see throughout the group is strong entrepreneurship and people who are proud of what they build.

That is an asset that that we will keep, but I think it's important that that every company has clear targets and priorities, and we follow up against them. My three priorities for the first while month are profitability first.

We can see that the EBITDA margin in the period rose to 6.4% from 3.7%, and the efficiency program is completed. The next steps are is to take firmer control over pricing, purchasing, and cost discipline in every company.

Second, cash conversion. Operating cash flow was 120 against 195 last year, and working capital was absorbed 35 million in the quarter.

That is not something I'm satisfied with, and here is definitely room for improvement. The third priority is clearer, active ownership and focus within the group.

From the turn of the year, two experienced FMCG leaders will join us: Henrik Arvidsson as Chief of Staff, and David Persson as head of segment for Future Snacking. That will strengthen our FMCG experience and executive power to support our subsidiaries and and drive change within the group.

We also divested seven businesses this year to reduce complexity and improve focus. Some highlights then on the report, the quarter in brief: the reported EBITDA increased by 83% to 141 million SEK, and the EBIT margin was 5.1%, up from 1.5%.

Net sales grew 5% to 2.2 billion SEK. Breaking that up a little bit: 4% was organic, and led primarily by Future Snacking at 12% and Quality Nutrition at 14%.

Sustainable Care declined 2% organically on a weak UK consumer sentiment. Come back to that a little bit further on in the report.

Gross margin improved to 31.3%. Cash conversion was not satisfactory, as I mentioned before, and we will come back to that.

Leverage came down to 2.5 times from 2.8 at the end of June, primarily driven by an improved EBITDA. Looking at the portfolio, we divested Fancystage and Kudde Huset in the quarter, and Marabou and Assertia Fastigheter after the quarter.

That will take us to I will take you through an EBITDA bridge to show where the improvement comes from and and a little bit about the underlying EBITDA development. The reported EBITDA rose by 64 million.

Looking at the underlying EBITDA, it increased from 128 to 165 million. 27 comes from lower items affecting comparability, and breaking that up, -51 million last year was related to the efficiency program and the former CEO, and that compared to this period where we have a -24 from divested operations and acquisition-related costs, the net from those two is 27 million.

The remaining 37 comes from the underlying business, basically, where the largest contributor in the period is Quality Nutrition at +24. We will we go on and look at the gross margin.

Looking at the trend, gross profit grew 8% to 689 million in the period, and the gross margin was up 0.9 points to 31.3% compared to last year. I would say mainly from consumer product mix in Quality Nutrition and Nordic Distribution.

Gross margin was weighted down by Sustainable Care, impacted by the customer sentiment, as I mentioned before. Currency added about 9 million to gross gross margin.

Compared to second quarter, the gross margin is slightly lower, 31.3 against 31.7, and EBITDA compared to previous two quarters shows a growth of about 20 million. Yes, we will continue to net sales.

Here, we see an increase of 5% to 2.2 billion SEK. The 5% is organically the growth is 4%, and currency added another percent on top of that.

Acquisitions and divestment in the period basically netted out to zero. The growth comes from Quality Nutrition and Future Snacking and Nordic Distribution, where I would say Quality Nutrition and Future Snacking are the prime drivers of of 14 and 12%.

Sustainable Care declined organically by 2%, mainly because of weak British consumer sentiment, which we've been which been against us in previous quarters as well. Organic growth is important to us, but it has to be a profitable growth.

I'll come back to that when when we close the the presentation. With that, I hand over to Johan for a look at the cash flow and leverage.

Johan Lennartsson

Thank you, Anders. I will speak a little bit about the financial position in the period and the development that we've seen during the quarter, and also year to date.

Looking at the cash flow for the period, cash flow increased to 155 million versus 137 in the comparative period. That is an increase of 13%.

We can conclude that the change in net working capital had a negative impact on the quarterly cash generation. We absorbed 35 million in net working capital, which is, of course, something that we will prioritize and continue to prioritize going forward.

Cash flow after changing net working capital amounted to 120 million versus 195 last year, a decrease of 38%. Worth mentioning is that we repaid tax deferrals during the quarter of 45 million kronor, and that is the main driver of the short-term liabilities decrease we could see in the period.

As mentioned, net working capital remained to be a higher prioritized area. It amounted to around 12% in relation to the net sales in the last 12 months, and this is something that we will continue to follow to drive it down.

We can conclude that the inventory increased by 103 million year to date, and this is, of course, a natural development as we grow the underlying business, we drive the innovation, and we explore new business ideas and opportunities. We can also conclude that volatility in raw material prices had a slight impact on the working capital development.

For example, the whey protein prices have been significantly volatile during the period. With that said, we repeat that we see a potential to drive the efficiency in the capital allocation and the usage of the group.

We do have tax deferrals also in the coming year that we will do the final installments in Q1 and Q3 next year before the full deferrals have been repaid. With that said, we also continue with the investments in the new confectionery site that we've communicated previously.

During the quarter, we continued according to plan, and we expect to have minor investments in Q4 and also a few spillovers in Q1 of that project that we will have impact on the overall cash flow and CapEx development. With that said, that has an impact on the leverage.

We can conclude that despite the strategic investments that we've done in the factory and other projects, we decreased the leverage down to 2.5 times adjusted EBITDA from 2.8 in the second quarter. We can conclude that we are back on our target level where we've said that we want to be.

With that said, we are not satisfied where we are. We want to continue to drive the leverage down even further, and this is for us to achieve an stronger financial flexibility for new value-driving activities.

The development in the leverage is mainly driven by both improved profitability of the group, all in all, but of course also the underlying cash generation of the group, which has enabled us to remain on a, yeah, flat level versus year to date, despite the strategic investments that we've done and despite the inventory build-up that I mentioned on the cash flow slide. As Anders have been very clear about, to further drive down the leverage and the capital allocation of the group is a highly prioritized area going forward.

Anders Fredriksson

Thank you, Johan. Now a quick look at each of the segments, starting with Future Snacking.

Future Snacking grew 12% organically with resilient demand across the core categories, I would say. EBITDA was 38 million against 33.

Here, it should be noted that last year's quarter included a one-off income of 18 million, the underlying improvement is clearly stronger than the headline number shows. The new confectionery factory in Skövde is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter, and that will strengthen our production capacity and our ability to grow.

Then we will move over to Sustainable Care, if you will switch the slide, Johan, thank you. Sustainable Care continued to have headwinds.

We declined 2% organically in the period, and weighted by UK consumer on both, I would say, sales and gross margin that fell to 34.7%. Even so, EBITDA increased to 72 from 68, and the EBITDA margin improved to 11.3%.

Looking at the underlying EBITDA, that is affected by the cost efficiency program last year of -7, if we take that into account, that shows a decrease of EBITDA from 75 last year to reported 72 this year. We also made divestments here in Fancystage and Marabou, and that will sharpen the segment's portfolio going forward.

Quality Nutrition had a very strong quarter: 14% organic growth and EBITDA of 40 million against -3 last year. It is, I would say, supported by strong demand.

Nutrition is a fast-growing business to be in, and higher capacity utilization for us. Should mention, as I said in the CEO letter, that the volatility in whey protein over the past year has been somewhat favorable for the segment, but it also increases uncertainty around purchase prices and sales volumes going forward, this is something that needs to be closely managed.

The underlying EBITDA is affected by the cost efficiency program last year, -19, if we take that into account, it shows an increase of EBITDA from 16 last year to reported 40 this year. Finally, Nordic Distribution: it grew 4% organically, and gross margin improved to 20.1% from 17%, thanks to favorable customer and product mixes.

Unfortunately, we don't see this improvement materialize in the result, and there's definitely opportunity for improvement here. EBITDA was stable at 33 million, and doing the same look at underlying EBITDA as we did in the other segments, this year's result includes management fees of 3 million now invoiced to the segment, which wasn't last year, but last year, the efficiency program impacted by -1.

I would say that those changes are not material. What is material here is that this is a large part of the group, and I see an opportunity here to strengthen it with margin expansion as the primary goal.

That will bring us to the final words. I will close looking at our financial targets and next steps.

On leverage, we are at target, and at 2.5 times. Next lever to pull here is to work with working capital.

The inventory, as Johan mentioned earlier, is 103 million so far this year, and that is something that we are going to put a strong spotlight on. On growth and profitability, we are not there yet.

Net sales grew sorry, we have 5%. We're not there yet, but we're working on it.

See, sorry, I lost my train of thought here. EBIT margin went from 1.5 to 5.1% in the year against a target of 10, here closing this gap is what my profitability priorities is all about.

Here, we need to take a firmer control over pricing and purchasing and cost discipline and a portfolio of businesses that contribute to value. When it talks to growth and growth, net sales grew 5%, and the target is 15%.

Future Snacking and Quality Nutrition showed double-digit growth in the period, which is good, but I would say here that organic growth is important, but it has to be profitable. Growing lower margin volume only drives working capital, my recipe is simple: stability first, then profitability, and then growth, basically.

We will report progress on this quarterly as we proceed forward. Yes, with that, we are happy to take your questions.

Johan Lennartsson

Thank you, Anders. We should also say that you are more than welcome to write questions to us if you have any on the report and the presentation.

We have a couple of questions from Viktor Hansson here about Sustainable Care. You've mentioned that a little bit about the weak UK consumer, Anders.

We have mentioned that we have new contracts for Solent from early 2027. Is that still true, and what are your thoughts about Solent in Q1?

Anders Fredriksson

I'd say that as I mentioned throughout the presentation a couple of times, Solent and our UK businesses have had a challenging year with rising costs and a weaker consumer sentiment. That is something that the management in Solent and those companies have worked really, really hard to address.

I don't give forecasts, but what I can say is that there's a intense work going on to turn that business around.

Johan Lennartsson

Thank you, Anders. Viktor also has a question about higher protein input material prices.

We've mentioned that there is a quite high volatility in the whey protein market. Question from Viktor, then, is: how long is your inventory?

How long is it in your inventory, and when will it start to impact earnings? Any comments on that?

Anders Fredriksson

Yes. First, I should say that raw materials movement up and down is a natural part of FMCG business, sometimes it works for you, and sometimes it works against you.

When it works for you, then if you're managed to build some stock then before the rise, then it usually impacts your working capital and so forth, it's up and down. Without going into to any details here, I would say that the effect in the earnings is temporary.

Johan Lennartsson

Yeah.

Anders Fredriksson

I don't give any forecasts on this.

Johan Lennartsson

Thank you, Anders. A last question from Viktor here is also a little bit John Adams has a little bit similar question: "We write about a one-off non-recurring revenue that occurred in the third quarter in Future Snacking last year, which gives impact on the EBITDA.

Are there any comments and thoughts on that we want to raise?"

Anders Fredriksson

The income was included in last year's reported figures, and it was disclosed in the notes to the annual report. I've chosen to state it explicitly in this quarter because it matters for the year-on-year comparison in Future Snacking.

Excluding it, the segment's EBITDA grew from around 21 million to 38, and I think that is a material part of understanding that segment.

Johan Lennartsson

Perfect. Thank you, Anders.

One question here from John Adams also: "What are you considering the underlying CapEx level to be both for 2026 and for 2027, excluding the factory investments?" We have previously communicated that we have an general maintenance CapEx need for around 15 to 20 million per quarter, so that's around 80 million, 75 to 80 million, on an annual basis.

That is our general maintenance need for running the 17 production facilities that we have in the group.

Anders Fredriksson

Yeah. There is no need to change that statement at this point.

With that said, also we are quickly approaching the budget period for 2027, but I would say that the previously communicated numbers still holds.

Johan Lennartsson

Thank you, Anders. Another question from Anders Carlen here: "Is expansion of nutrition and Future Snacking to other countries, how is that going?

Do you have any thoughts to share here?" It's going,

Anders Fredriksson

I would say, it's going good. It's going well, which we can see in the growth of the segment.

It is, I would say, also important, and I know that it's on the agenda of key companies within the segment.

Johan Lennartsson

Perfect, Anders. I think we have been through all the questions that we have got for the today's call.

Are there any closing remarks that you would like to end before we end the call?

Anders Fredriksson

No, just to repeat, I'm proud to be part of the company and really looking forward to continue to work to improve profitability and cash conversion.

Johan Lennartsson

Okay. Thank you so much, Anders.

We are, of course, also happy to have you here, and we look forward to continue this journey.

Anders Fredriksson

Thank you, Johan. Bye.