Matthew Hooper
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to today's Q4 2025 results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.
My name is Matthew Hooper and I will be your host today. Joining me here on the call are our CEO, Jørgen Madsen Lindemann, and our CFO, Johan Johansson.
Welcome, gentlemen. As usual, our presentation will be followed by a Q&A session, and you can find our results materials, including a presentation deck and detailed fact sheet, on the Investor Relations section of our website.
We will not follow the slides, but the presentation deck and fact sheet do provide useful information for you. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
If you want to ask questions and you are following the webcast, please post your questions in the "Ask a question" box at any time, and I will read them out. If you prefer to ask your questions directly, you are of course welcome to do so by using your phone keypad.
More about that later when we get to the Q&A session. I will now hand the call over to Jørgen to walk you through the Q4 results.
Over to you, Jørgen.
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
Thank you, Matthew, and good morning, everyone. Q4 was another important quarter for us as we made further progress in our strategic transformation.
We have met or exceeded the targets that we set out for the pro forma combined results of Viaplay and the Allente Group for the full year. We completed the acquisition of the remaining 50% of Allente Group in mid-November.
This is a company that we know well as an owner, partner, and operator. Back in July last year, we announced that we would buy the remaining 50% of Allente for 1.1 billion SEK.
Allente then paid out 500 million SEK of dividends to Telenor and 500 million SEK to us. We ended up paying 600 million SEK to Telenor in Q4 to complete the 100% consolidation.
We are now in the process of integrating the business, and we expect full run rate cash synergies of 300 to 400 million from 2027, which will further support our transformational journey, our profitability, and cash flows. We have reconfirmed our intention to deliver double-digit EBITDA margins in '28 compared to the 5.3% that was delivered for '25 on a pro forma basis.
This still requires a lot of work and collaboration with partners to agree mutually beneficial B2B distribution terms and prolong content agreements on commercial market terms. We have already negotiated and extended a number of our agreements with content partners and with B2B distribution partners that include Viaplay and our TV channels in their customer offerings.
As mentioned, we continue to work with our partners to rethink these relationships so that they work well for both parties moving forward. On the content side, which represents 80% of our opex, we have received great and improved support from our key partners in order to drive our transformation and to build our future continued partnerships.
We have prolonged agreements where we have been able to agree mutually beneficial commercial terms, and in some instances we have exited or replaced legacy agreements where this has not been possible. The work we have done with our content partners to enhance our product offering resulted in 2% organic growth for our streaming business.
Our D2C subscriber base has continued to grow quarter-on-quarter, driven by our premium sports offerings, while our B2B base has remained largely stable quarter-on-quarter as we continue to prioritize value over volume. ARPU levels were up for both our D2C and B2B bases, again reflecting the growing share of our premium sports offering.
Our Q4 programming slate was more attractive and relevant than ever, with English Premier League football, Formula 1 motor racing, darts, and winter sports continuing to drive viewer engagement. Our content cooperation in Norway with TV 2 has resulted in growth for our plus package.
Thanks to the support from our partners and within the existing contract terms, we have also now just become the first broadcaster in the world to show all 552 games from the English Football League Championship each year, and we are further extending our coverage of Formula 1 races, weekends, and winter sports in 2026. On the non-sports side, local storytelling has combined with international formats and new releases to support not only Viaplay, but also our free TV channels, which have grown their audience shares in each market in '25 versus 2024.
The latest series of local versions of proven reality formats, such as Paradise Hotel, Expedition Robinson, have again led the way, together with Crime Thursday and Efterlyst and Svenska Fall in Sweden, Charterfeber in Norway, and popular acquired TV franchise shows across our markets. The work we have done to transform our advertising business also paid off in Q4.
Our digital advertising sales were up 38% as we continue to push both our HVOD and AVOD products. Linear advertising markets remain under pressure, and we are working hard to maintain our market shares.
Total advertising sales were stable year-on-year in Q4. We increased our listening share in our Norwegian radio business and were broadly flat in our Swedish radio business.
We have just been awarded the prolongation of our national radio license in Sweden from 2026 for eight years, which is the same license as we have today. The sales of our linear channels to telcos and other distributors were up slightly, and this reflects the investments that we continue to make in these products, as well as the renegotiation of legacy agreements that I mentioned earlier.
We have either prolonged these agreements on improved commercial terms or we have exited and replaced them where that is not possible. The 37% decline in our sublicensing and other sales is the major reason that our total sales were down 2% on an organic basis in Q4.
We have referred before to the exceptional high sublicensing sales that we had last year when we made a number of one-off scripted content sales and sports sublicensing deals in Q4. This year's sales are at a more normalized level, and we have been consistent quarter-on-quarter this year.
Looking forward into 2026, we have today guided for stable group sales when excluding currency effects, with accelerated growth in streaming sales expected to offset the continued decline in Allente's DTH sales. Our profits in Q4 were impacted by the consolidation of Allente's profit for half of the quarter and by adverse currency effects.
On an underlying basis, when excluding both of these effects, our profit would have been slightly down year-on-year and reflect the closing down of the non-core businesses last summer. We reduced the opex for our core operations by 2% before currency effects, which was in line with the 2% organic sales decline for our core operations.
We have today guided for between 1 to 1.4 billion of EBITDA in 2026. The range reflects a number of moving parts, including some synergies from Allente Group integration, which we expect to be full run rate from 2027.
We will provide more information about this once integration is finalized. To conclude then, we have delivered the guidance for 2025, and we are now a group with almost 22 billion of annual sales and over 1 billion of EBITDA.
Our products are stronger than ever, with more relevant content than ever, and we are constantly working to enhance, exit, or replace legacy agreements and partnerships while maintaining as lean an SG&A cost base as possible. We have total focus on relevance and resilience, with commercial partnership and competitive products so that we can secure our position and future.
There is still much for us to do to deliver the double-digit EBITDA margins in '28 that we are aiming for, and we are clear about what needs to happen for that objective to be achieved. That is it for my comments, and I will now hand over to Johan for his comments on our financial performance and position before we take your questions.
Johan Johansson
Thank you, Jørgen, and good morning, everyone. Our guidance metrics for 2025 were based on the full-year pro forma performance of the group as if Allente Group had been consolidated 100% from 1st of January 2025.
Jørgen has been through the achievements of our core sales and our core EBIT metrics, and we have closed down the remaining non-core operations last summer. A few words on the Q4 numbers specifically.
Our reported sales of 4.978 billion included 578 million of Allente Group sales net of internal eliminations following the acquisition of the remaining 50% of Allente Group in mid-November. Our reported EBIT before associated company income and IAC of 158 million included 31 million from Allente Group.
The Viaplay sales to Allente as a key distribution partner have been eliminated in the sales line, as you can see from the segmental results from our core operations, and there is no elimination on the EBIT line. The non-core operations had no sale and no EBIT in the quarter, compared to 198 million of sales and -36 million of EBIT in Q4 2024.
Currencies continued to affect us, as a stronger Swedish krona had a negative impact on the around 133 million on the translation of our core sales in other currencies into our SEK reported currency. Reported core operation costs, however, benefited from a net positive FX tailwind.
The total FX impact on the core EBIT was negative by approximately 40 million, which was in line with our previous expectations for the full-year FX headwind on the core EBIT of 100 to 150 million, where we came in at approximately 125 million for the full year. When looking at organic cost development, when excluding Allente and FX, we achieved savings in almost all categories apart from some key legacy contracts where we have built-in inflation.
The substantial reduction in scripted content sales also resulted in a reduction in associated costs. The 642 million of items affecting comparability in the Q4 primarily comprised non-cash write-down of legacy non-sports content, as well as transaction costs related to the Allente acquisition.
Net financial items totaled -281 million and included 121 million of accelerated interest payment and written-off prepaid borrowing costs related to the renegotiation of our banking agreements and the cancellation of the guarantee facility. A further -6 million related to net lease liabilities.
Other financial items totaled -57 million and included -20 million of costs related to the renegotiation, as well as facility fees and FX impacts on revaluation. Moving on to cash flow, we also met the third of the full-year pro forma guidance metrics, which relates to the group rather than to the core operations.
We reported 804 million of pro forma adjusted operating free cash flow when compared to guidance range of 500 to 750 million. This metric excludes acquisition costs, interest, dividends, and extraordinary one-off working capital effects.
The 804 million included a positive adjusted free cash flow of 1.169 billion for the core operations and a 365 million drag from the non-core operations due to the content contracts that are yet to expire. The 365 million cash drag was lower than the 500 million that was previously expected, and it's a function of timing, where we have managed to defer some of the payments into 2028.
Our Q4 reported cash flow from operations primarily reflected the 1.533 billion negative change in working capital, which included a previously flagged and extraordinary 2.5 billion negative working capital effect, as well as a positive change in the timing of payments when compared to 2024. Excluding this 2.5 billion one-off effect, the Q4 changes in working capital would have been positive.
We also received 300 million of cash dividends from Allente Group prior to the acquisition on top of the 200 million that were received in Q3, which are included in cash flow from operations. Cash flow from investing activities primarily reflected the Allente acquisition, while the cash flow from financing activities primarily reflected the refinancing, as well as the drawings on the RCF.
When looking forward into 2026, it's worth noting that we expect the core operations' working capital swings to be less volatile between quarters due to a range of new commercial agreements with partners. The anticipated non-core operations' cash drag for 2026 has not changed from the 500 million figure that we provided before.
Capex will be at or about the same level for the combined group, which was approximately 150 million in 2025 on a pro forma basis. Cash tax payments will benefit from the carried forward tax losses that we have, and our annual cash interest cost are now running at approximately 450 million.
This is only a slight increase in our total cash financing cost when compared to the cost before Allente deal. The 300 to 400 million of full annual run rate cash synergies that Jørgen mentioned in relation to the integration of Allente will be at full run rate from 2027.
We are now in the process of integrating the business and expect the cash cost of that integration to be between 270 and 330 million, which will be reported as an IAC during 2026, with the majority coming in Q1 and Q2. In connection with the Allente Group transaction, we refinanced the balance sheet in order to improve our debt structure and to reflect the fact that we're now a group with over 1 billion annual EBITDA.
This effectively involved securing a new 1.726 billion term loan to replace the debt that Allente brought to the table, canceling the 7.1 billion guarantee facility, establishing the new 2.5 billion working capital facility, and reducing the size of the RCF from 3.392 to 2.817 billion. The 1.858 billion of bonds and notes is unchanged.
We already amortized 100 million on this 1.726 billion loan in Q4, our total long-term indebtedness, excluding the RCF, is now at 6 billion. We will make further repayments of 420 million on this loan in both 2026 and 2027, and all the rest of our debt facilities mature in 2028.
Our financial net debt, when excluding leases, amounted to 5.246 billion at the end of the quarter and comprised 6.422 billion of debt and 1.132 billion of cash. 500 million on the RCF was drawn at the end of the quarter.
The effective doubling of the EBITDA margin between now and 2028 requires a lot of work and collaboration with our partners to prolong legacy agreements and partnerships on commercial market terms, or find alternatives. The strengthening of this profitability profile and the ending of the cash drag from the non-core operations in 2028 will enable us to gradually delever the balance sheet.
Execution and efficiency remain our key focus area. We have clear objectives, must continue to deliver on sales growth and cost reduction initiatives, must constantly improve our working capital efficiency, and must allocate capital with discipline and clear return on investment requirements.
We have made a lot of progress and there is still much to do. That concludes my remarks, now back to you, Matthew.
Matthew Hooper
Thank you, Johan, and we're now ready to take your questions. Again, if you would like to ask a question and you have joined via the webcast, please post your questions using the "Ask a question" tab at the top right-hand corner of the window and clicking Submit, and I will read them out for you.
Please don't forget to write your name and your company name. Or if you'd rather ask the question yourself, please press star one and then one again on your telephone keypad, and you will enter the queue.
To cancel your question, simply press star one and one again. We're waiting on the conference call, if we take the first question from the message board.
This question comes from Emil at Mediawatch, and it's one for you, Johan, I think, which is, "Can you please explain why the group's net debt has risen from 1.1 billion in 2024 to 5.2 billion in 2025?"
Johan Johansson
I think as we have said, a part of the Allente transaction, we have refinanced the balance sheet, which included this reshape of the capital structure with these components that we have talked about. It is a combination of all those items that I mentioned just in my note there.
Matthew Hooper
Remember, Emil, that we had the refinancing, which we announced in conjunction with Allente. There are a number of factors there, including the new working capital facility, the old guarantee facility went away.
There's a lot of reshaping that's gone on there, but it's all been laid out, should be fairly straightforward to understand, hopefully. There's another question from Emil, probably one for you, Jørgen, which is, "How much do you expect content costs to increase in 2026 due to the multiyear legacy agreements?"
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
We have not been specific on the amount, but clearly we have some new contracts kicking in, and we do see inflation in those contracts, but we are not specific around the amount.
Matthew Hooper
I think as Johan mentioned, we've had cost savings in this period in Q4 related to almost all categories, and including SG&A as well, not just the content costs. Hopefully that shows you a direction of travel and what we're doing on the majority of the cost items.
Another one from Emil again, Jørgen, to you: "Do you expect a continued net loss of Viaplay subscribers in the core markets in 2026?"
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
Far, as you can see, the Viaplay subscribers, we have now grown quarter-on-quarter, and that is something clearly we would like to continue to do. We have strong traction right now in the products, and as you have seen as well, our sports, particular our high-ARPU sports portfolio has grown quite significantly.
The aim is, of course, to continue to get more customers on board. That is the focus.
Matthew Hooper
Just the final question from Emil now is, "How important will price increases be to meeting the guidance for 2026?"
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
It is a combination of more customers, as we said, and also clearly also price increases where we find that we can increase prices so we are still competitive, or adjust prices so we are competitive. That is clearly a part of a way to get to the guidance.
Matthew Hooper
Okay. Just as a reminder for everyone, if you do want to ask questions in the conference call, please follow those instructions I gave earlier.
We'll continue with the message board for now. A question from Alex at SB1 Markets: "You reiterate the ambition of a double-digit core EBITDA margin by 2028.
What are the two to three biggest quantified levers to get you there?" He's suggested some for us: pricing, ARPU, content cost optimization, opex, tech efficiencies, Allente synergies.
Then the second half of the question is, "What annual milestones should we track in '26 to '27 to show the direction of travel?"
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
I think it is clearly that we want to grow our D2C and also grow our B2B streaming business. I think that is quite important.
Also that growth, of course, should flow straight down to the bottom line. Clearly, the improvement, as we talked about as well, in different content agreement and distribution agreement, Johan mentioned as well, or Matthew right now as well, the savings, the more being fit for purpose, and then also the synergies from Allente Group integration as well.
Those is, of course, what to bring us in the end to the double-digit margin as we have set out as an ambition in '28.
Matthew Hooper
Okay. Then a follow-up from Alex: "Q4 Q4 had extraordinary"—actually, probably one for you, Johan had extraordinary working capital effects.
What should we assume for normalized working capital seasonality for the combined group in '26? Are there really any structural changes here post-Allente, plus any anticipated full-year working capital headwind or tailwind?"
Johan Johansson
As I mentioned, I think we in in 2025 we had this extraordinary working capital effect of 2.5, and then and then we also had the positive positive effect from improved improved commercial agreements, and that affects 2025. When we go into 2026, we will have we will have less less volatility between the quarters on the on the working capital, and it will be more stable if you look during the year.
We will have a few hundred million so a few hundred million build-up during the year, but it's it's many moving parts in this, and we need to come back to it and give more more updates on that during the course of the year. Yeah.
Matthew Hooper
Overall less lumpy.
Johan Johansson
Overall less lumpy during the year,
Matthew Hooper
yeah. Then we have a question from Christoffer from Kepler Cheuvreux: "On Viaplay streaming, you have previously indicated low to mid-single-digit annual growth in '26 and beyond.
Can you explain how you see the balance between subscriber intake and price adjustments?" One for you, Jørgen.
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
We have not been specific on that, but as I said earlier as well, it is a combination, a mix of the products, clearly, and we are increasing prices or making sure that we are competitive on pricing where we need, at the same time making sure that we also are getting customers in by being competitive. We have not been specific on the two specific levers there, what each of them will drive.
It is a combination, as we see today, where high-ARPU products and increased subs that is driving the growth as we see right now.
Matthew Hooper
Okay. A follow-up from Christoffer, which I think is one for you, Johan: "You previously said we should expect gradual free cash flow growth from the '25 level.
Is that still the case, or will it look different in 2026?"
Johan Johansson
The gradual increase is still our long-term ambition, but please remember that it depends on the EBITDA outcome as well. The pro forma '25 of 804 had this positive underlying effect, and then 2025 included a benefit of the lower non-core cash drag, which we in '26 expect to be around the 500 million at this point.
Remember as well that we have the integration cost and restructuring cost within this year.
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
Yeah.
Matthew Hooper
Okay. Then from Christoffer, one for you, Jørgen: "On HVOD and your crackdown on password sharing, could you update us on your progress and the benefits that you have seen so far?"
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
They have, in all fairness, been quite significant, particularly in both areas actually. The account sharing has clearly benefited our sales, yeah, and also the fact that we ask people to play fair, and if you're buying one subscription, that is actually not shared with everybody.
That has helped, in all fairness, as well. Same goes for the HVOD, which is proven to be a very good customer acquisition tool as well.
We are looking at it right now, and we're looking at, whatever, 15% to 20% of the base as is right now is actually coming from HVOD as well. It is a tool which gives us opportunity to get a very strong product in the market at a good price, and at the same time also capitalize on digital advertising.
That has worked well for us.
Matthew Hooper
Okay. I think along the same vein, Jan from Dagens Media is asking, "How large a sums do you estimate that you have lost piracy in 2025, and what are you doing to change that trend?"
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
That is of course the biggest issue for all of us, in all fairness. In all fairness, as we are looking at it right now, it looks like it's just continued to increase, the piracy as well.
There is a range of things that we are doing amongst others, dynamic blocking in Sweden, four largest ISPs now targeting focused illegal IPTV services. There's a range of measures which we're doing right now.
There's legislation as well in the government, to prevent and make it a serious crime to be a pirate as well. That is a range of measures that we're doing and something clearly we will continue to fight.
Some statistics suggest that it has increased, as I said earlier, around 16% from last year, and we should eventually see now around 1.3 million households being pirates in the Nordics, which is quite significant, to be fair. We are losing a lot there, and something clearly everybody, which we are doing, also with our partners here, our colleagues in the different media companies, but also the government, do need to act on this.
Matthew Hooper
Okay. Going back to Christoffer from Kepler Cheuvreux, it's a question for you, Johan: "I believe you indicated 2% opex reduction in '25.
What further steps can you take to continue reducing your opex base?"
Johan Johansson
I think it's, contact us Jørgen said as well, I think we are working across our sort of cost base to optimize, and I think now with with with with the integration of of Allente, we also have these these things that we are are doing to optimize the setup we have, which we need to come back to and and on the the effect, which is why I think we have as we have guided for now with the the run rate synergies for 2027. It is it is a range of of things that we are doing on the cost base.
Matthew Hooper
Okay. I'll come back to you in a minute, Johan, with a question on specifying the rise in net debt levels, just so we clarify that for someone who's asked the question.
Before we get to that, Karl from Arctic has asked, Jørgen, "Is there anything you can mention on the competitive environment of sports renewals in the Nordics?"
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
I don't know specific what that could be. Clearly, we have succeeded in prolonging the agreements that we wanted to prolong, and they are strong, like the skiing we have prolonged, like the Formula 1 we have prolonged.
Those two are very important. Darts, of course, as well in Netherlands is important as well.
We have prolonged the darts as well. That has been done, close partnership and close cooperation with the partners, and understanding how we can utilize and how we can get more out of the product, and they have been super helpful, in all fairness, to open up a range of new opportunities for us in connection to these prolongations.
Also like the skiing, we have much more content than we used to have. As I said earlier, now with the Football League Championship in UK, we now got 552 matches that we can show within the same contractual framework that we have today.
A lot of support from the partners, we have been lucky that we have managed to continue our partnership with the key rights owners that we work with. I think that is as much as I can talk about the competitive environment.
Matthew Hooper
Thanks, Jørgen. Just a reminder to everyone, if you rather not hear my voice, you're very welcome to ask questions in the teleconference, but otherwise I'll keep going.
Back to you, Johan, just to specify the increase in net debt, please, for Daniel.
Johan Johansson
As a reminder, I think we at the time of recapitalization in 2024, we had this about 15 billion package, which included the GFA and the RCF facilities. Now the financing package is much smaller based on that we have closed down the GFA and then taken up the loan for acquiring Allente, as well as this new working capital facility.
Matthew Hooper
The net debt at the end of the year stood at?
Johan Johansson
The net debt at year-end stood at the 5.5.
Matthew Hooper
Yeah. Okay.
Alex from SB1 has asked a very detailed question on the cost of each of the various facilities we have, and I think rather than going into that in detail, we have given you an indication of what we expect the financing costs to be during 2026, which is around the 450 million level. We've said clearly that that doesn't make much of a change versus what we had in '25, where you need to remember that it's not just the interest cost, but it was also the cost for the guarantee facility that we had previously.
Those two things are more or less the same, despite the fact that we've taken on 1.7 billion of debt for what was effectively Allente's debt. Financial cost moving into '26, to be very clear, should be in around the sort of 450 million level.
Alex, if you have any follow-ups, just please let me know. Jørgen, there's a question from two people here really on the sports sublicensing side, and whether we have anything more that we'd want to do there, and if we could explain a little bit more what the difficult comp was in Q4 '24 that led to a reduction in Q4 '25 versus that period.
What was it that was sublicensed then that caused the comp?
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
I think when it comes to the sublicensing part, it comes in many shapes and forms, to be fair. It might be so that we find it beneficial to sub-license content in order eventually to get new content in, where we find new content which can enhance our position.
Not necessarily incremental cost, because we sub-license something, get cash for that, and then subsequently buy something else. That is one element.
The other element is, of course, that we have a lot, and we have also too much, to be fair. It is really a treat for customers, in all fairness, and we would like to offload some more content clearly to the right partners, but also we will never do it in a way which will harm our commercial proposition.
That is also important to understand. We have good partners who we have sub-licensed with, and it is very good relationships that we have in there, in all fairness, long-term relationships as well.
That is something we will continue to do. Either we will sub-license or we will, then, sub-license from others, or license from others as well.
That can also be the case. There was some special events in Q4 last year, some sports sublicensing we did, which we didn't do in Q4 '25.
I think that is as concrete as I want to mention that, but there were some events which didn't come into Q4 '25.
Matthew Hooper
Okay. Then we have a question from Christoffer at Kepler regarding Allente sales, and his question is, "Allente sales declined faster in 2025 than in previous years.
Could you help us understand why and what you can do to improve this trend moving forward into '26, '27, and '28?"
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
I can talk a little bit about the product. Clearly what we want to do with Allente is, of course, to enhance the products, yeah.
That is quite important, and also we have great marketing opportunities as well through our channels as well to promote all the fantastic offering that Allente offers on the DTH business as well. We have just launched two new movie channels as well in Allente, and more will come.
The partnership with Allente and the content offering, now that we can explore our content so much broader also on Allente, definitely should benefit as well, and that is a key focus we're having to preserve these very valuable DTH customers for us, and nurse them in a much greater way than it has been done historically. As specific on the revenue, if there's anything?
Johan Johansson
No, I think it's, as you say, Jørgen, it is about working with the customer base with serving the customers with a good product offering that is fit for purpose, with a fit for purpose price, and work on the churn reductions measures.
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
We do also invest to create new products clearly as well. That is part of the strategy as well.
There are definitely things we can do, or will do, also with some of the Allente offerings that they are having today, which fit very well into the current Viaplay offering. Don't forget that we used to run a Viasat.
We used to run a DTH platform, and there we had a range of partnerships and a range of very strong product offerings to the market that's benefited us, also into the customer. That is of course something now again we look into.
Matthew Hooper
Just to remind you again, the synergies that we've indicated are cost synergies. They're cash cost synergies.
We haven't included here at this time any sales synergies, but clearly putting together two groups like this will lead to opportunities for us. On the cost synergies, Johan, we've indicated 300 to 400 million there.
Christoffer's asked if we could walk him through the main sources of those synergies, where does that come from primarily?
Johan Johansson
I think when combining this type of businesses, there are clearly overlapping functions that we work with to sort of operate in an efficient way going forward. As Jørgen said, we know how we run this kind of business before, we're setting it up fit for purpose.
Primarily it's a combination of the workforces where we have significant functional duplications, but also technology, marketing, and other costs.
Matthew Hooper
Yeah. Okay.
A shift of focus now to advertising. Jørgen, it's a question from Karl at Arctic: "Can you go a little deeper into the ad market environment expectations for 2026 and remind us of the digital versus traditional split?
Given digital is growing so quickly, what does that imply in terms of the rate of decline that you're seeing in the traditional ad markets at the moment?"
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
I don't think that those will be linked, to be fair. I think that there is just the fact that digital per se is growing quite rapidly as it is right now, and that is independent than linear is growing, in all fairness.
Linear is very much related to pot level. People using television is decreasing, so that is why the linear TV advertising is also decreasing.
It's difficult to predict clearly. Even we have been surprised sometimes on the market development, but I think if you look at the different bodies, then it should suggest that overall in the Nordics, you would see a decline of around, whatever, 10%, as it looks right now in '26.
At the same time, then, you should also see a digital ad market going up by 11%. That is what at least is forecasted.
It's a little bit difficult to be specific, also because the Norwegian market is actually a combination and doesn't split out linear advertising and digital advertising, but a combination. That combination is said to grow, inclusive radio, of around 2.5% in '26.
Again, we want to beat those market guidance, clearly. That is what we would like to do, but that is to give you a rough idea on what the market has forecasted.
I reckon if you ask each of the media agencies, they will probably also have different forecasts, there is no science there.
Matthew Hooper
Yeah. Again, remembering the 38% growth number that we gave, which is clearly a strong number for the digital.
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
We are growing faster than market, and that is due to a strong effort from the teams, to be fair, innovating as well on new products. The HVOD has clearly helped us a lot, and a lot of other talking to partners as well to all our distribution partners where we also have digital ad insertion in their offerings as well.
We want to have new measurement systems, which we are working on as well, to make sure that we can properly articulate the digital currency that we are selling, and so forth. There's a lot still to be done, but the team has done a good job last year, to be fair.
Matthew Hooper
Is there anything you want to say on the percentage of the advertising revenues that comes from digital today?
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
It is not larger, unfortunately, than the linear, not yet. We haven't given that split, to be fair.
But
Matthew Hooper
Still a minority, but it's growing fast.
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
It is growing fast, yeah.
Matthew Hooper
Again, to remind everyone, if you want to ask questions yourselves on the conference call, you're very welcome to. Going back to the message board again, we had one question which is more of a general long-term question from Magnus Sjöberg, who's asking, "When we see positive results and we begin to see a buffer of 1 to 2 billion over time, will you then be looking at buying back shares or paying off the debt, or what are your priorities at the point at which you have cash available to do those type of things?
How do you think about that?"
Jørgen Madsen Lindemann
I think we have been through a two-year transformation right now, to be fair, so that is something, and now, as we have said as well, we have guided for a range of 1 to 1.4 billion EBITDA for the coming year, and strong high figure when it comes to revenue. That is where we are right now, and that is what we want to deliver on.
I reckon the board, at that point in time, will start to look a bit further what they want to do. That is not something that I have discussed here short term with the board.
Matthew Hooper
Okay. One more prompt for anyone who wants to ask questions in the conference call.
I believe we've now reached the end of the questions that we have in the message board. It goes without saying, if you have any follow-ups, please feel free to contact me, and we can come back to you promptly on those.
I think overall that concludes the question-and-answer session today. Thank you very much for your time and your questions, and your participation.
We really appreciate your interest and always welcome your feedback on both the format and content of the materials and this session. We're available for follow-up meetings, please don't hesitate to reach out to me if you would like to schedule a meeting or you have any further questions.
That's it for today, thank you again, and goodbye for now.
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