Panoro Energy ASA

Panoro Energy ASA

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 25, 2026

Qazi Qadeer

Good morning, everyone. This is Qazi Qadeer from Panoro Energy.

I'm the CFO. With me joining today is Eric d'Argentré, our Chief Operating Officer, and Julien Balkany, our Chairman.

We are also supported by Andy Diamond today, who's our Head of IR and Corporate Finance. I'll read out the disclaimer to you before we begin.

This presentation does not constitute an offer or buy to sell, say. There's risks and uncertainties, including, amongst others, uncertainties in the exploration and further development and production of the gas and oil interest in estimating those as well.

We basically are going to discuss some forward-looking statements that are often identified here in these presentations. I think the disclaimer is understood to be read, we can begin.

For the housekeeping, we have a feature to do question and answers. In the portal, you would be able to raise your hand and participate in the Q&A sessions, and we can mute and unmute your line to take those questions.

There's also a feature to ask questions via a chat box, which will also be available through the course of the call. We are going to keep a disciplined, focused time on this call to take questions because we have a very, very packed agenda today.

Appreciate if the questions keep coming, and we'll try to answer those after the call on an offline basis. Next slide, please, Sera.

I'll hand over now to our Chairman, Julien Balkany, who will take us through the materials.

Julien Balkany

Thank you, Qazi. Good morning, everyone.

Before we move to our Q4 results, 2025 financial and operation update, I would like to say a few key words on the transformational and accretive acquisition that we have announced last night. I'm very delighted to announce that we have agreed to purchase an additional 40.375% in Block G, offshore Equatorial Guinea, from Kosmos Energy.

The upfront headline consideration is $180 million, with interim adjustment in Panoro favor from the effective date of the transaction, that is January 1st, 2025, which expect to reduce the cash payment on completion between $140 to $150 million. Closing is anticipated sometime during summer 2026.

There is a further deferred contingent consideration of $29.5 million in aggregate linked to certain production and oil price threshold over 2026 to 2028. I would like to highlight that ourselves and our partner Kosmos have been able to fully de-risk the transaction, mitigating the execution risk, clearing all governmental approval and preemptive rights in advance.

The only outstanding approval is CEMAC, which is an anti-competition assessment from Central Africa regulator, which we expect to be concluded within a set 6 months time frame from submission to facilitate completion in summer 2026. As of the effective date and initial consideration, we are acquiring 46 million barrels at an enterprise value of about $3.91 per barrel, which is over 50% discount to Panoro last traded multiple market benchmark, including broker valuation and regional transaction comparable in West and Central Africa.

Production net to the interest being acquired in 2025 was around 8,200 barrels of oil per day. In terms of funding to finance this acquisition, we launched yesterday an equity private placement at yesterday closing price at no discount for just below $50 million, which we have successfully closed and was multiple time oversubscribed last night.

The demand for the placement and fact we completed it at no discount is a clear testament to the quality of Panoro asset base, including Block G, and the compelling terms of the acquisition. We are also seeking to utilize the $150 million tap headroom in our existing bond framework, and today we are commencing fixed income meetings with prospective bondholders.

Next slide, please. Transformative impact, materiality, and longevity.

I would say this slide speak for itself and show the transformational impact on Panoro's operating profile. Based on 2025 full year, the acquisition increase Panoro pro forma production by approximately 80%, and on a 2P reserve basis, it increased Panoro size by over 100%.

This acquisition basically doubled the size of Panoro overnight. Other of the many benefit of the acquisition will be the increase and more frequent crude oil lifting, giving us better and greater regularity with the oil price through the years, which we fully expect to drive material cash flow expansion with the objective to enhance shareholder return for the next years to come.

Next slide, please. Block G overview.

Before I hand over to Eric d'Argentré, our COO and President, I want to remind people that it is almost 5 years ago today since we announced our entry in Equatorial Guinea and the acquisition of our current 14.25% interest in Block G from Tullow Oil. That acquisition paid back in less than 18 months, and as you can see in the graph on the slide in front of you, our 2P reserve at our last annual report are greater than the 2P reserve at acquisition, showing that we have replaced more reserves than we have produced.

There are clearly some parallels with the acquisition we have announced last night, hopefully at the right time in the current oil prices cycle, and Panoro ability to transact swiftly and with certainty, and also the strong support of the capital market and our shareholders. I will now hand over to Eric, who will take you through the operation of not only Block G, but also the exciting and high-impact work program across our wider E&P portfolio.

Eric d'Argentré

Thank you very much, Julien. Good morning, everybody.

On this slide, on the Block G, you can see on the left-hand side our Ceiba and Okume Complex. Block G is composed of two two different oil accumulation: six fields on conventional, more shallow water, and the Ceiba Field, which is a subsea development.

The key figures on the pro forma basis are very strong. We have 115 million barrels of 2P.

Our production for 2025 on a pro forma basis is 11,000 barrels of oil per day. As you can see on the left-hand side, the production curve, delivery was strong through the years.

2025 saw a little low on production delivery, mainly on the Ceiba Field. We have discussed that in the previous reports, quarterly reports, on the Ceiba multiphase pump failures or problems.

I'm pleased to say that back in October, one pump was back in service. Another one is being finalized now as we speak this coming weeks, and we expect the Ceiba Field to gradually recover production and get back to its full potential in the course of the year 2026.

Next, please. Block G, Okume and Ceiba, it's important to know that it's very large oil accumulation, multibillion barrels of oil in place originally: 1.3 billion on Okume and 1.1 on Ceiba Field, with a current recovery factor that is rather low at around 20%-21%.

With our long-term view and extension granted in 2022 until 2040, we expect with the work program to recover around 30%. That is the target.

You can see from 2025 going forward on the next 5 years, we have, in the first few years, focusing on the recovery of our cluster in Ceiba Field, additional well workover and intervention, stimulation, pump optimization on the Okume Complex, and then move to in 2 to 3 years, in 2028 and forward, on the drilling campaign to add additional drainage point on the Okume fields and the Ceiba accumulation over the years that we expect in our 5 years plan to get back above 30,000 barrels of oil per day and produce around 55-54 million gross production at moderate development cost around averaging $10 per barrel. Next, please.

On the enlarged group production, Panoro has delivered consistently increase of production with historical level in 2025 at 2,300 barrels of oil per day pre-acquisition. You can see here the impact of the 40.3% acquisition of Kosmos' interest on the 2025 pro forma basis.

Our production guidance for 2026 on a pro forma basis are around between 15,000 and 17,000 barrels of oil per day with the current program. As I mentioned in the previous slide on Block G, we have as well strong investment program especially on Dussafu Block in Gabon, with Mabomo Phase 2 drilling starting this summer, and we are on the road to the 20,000 barrels of oil per day net to Panoro Group.

That very strong asset base is, as well in terms of cash generation, very healthy and strong. You can see on the right-hand side, we are very resilient at oil price, even at $60 a barrel.

We have a healthy cash flow generative way above our pro forma bond feature and going up to the $800 and $900 million mark once the Brent price goes to $75-$80. Next, please.

We have discussed this morning the transaction on Block G, but let's not forget the rest of our asset base, and especially the Dussafu asset, which is a cornerstone asset for Panoro, has strongly delivered production with a very good uptime through the years. Here again with historical peak production in 2025 above 33,000 barrels.

We have a strong 2P base. As I mentioned, the Mabomo Phase 2 was FID-ed, and drilling will start very soon.

In parallel, we are maturing with the partner the Bourdon FID. Bourdon was discovered late 2024-2025.

It's a 25 million barrel recoverable reserves, and we expect FID to be sanctioned in the coming months. Next, please.

On Tunisia, it's a more modest asset base, but very steady, very important in the portfolio as well. We have delivered good production last year, above 3,000 bopd, fighting decline, maintaining our baseline.

We have a list of productive projects and well intervention in 2026, and we are maturing some drilling project for later 2027-2028 that will not just maintain the plateau or extend the plateau above 3,000, but increase production on the Tunisian asset. Thank you.

Next slide, please. Another exciting project we have on exploration, we have the Niosi and Guduma blocks, which are, as you can see, right in the middle of a very prolific basin, with the Dussafu production and the Etame Field of VAALCO very close to it.

We have finalized the seismic survey back in December and January. It's now being a process and interpretation this year and part of 2027 to mature the already identified prospect, whether on the top corner of the Dussafu Block or on the Niosi trend as well.

That's a very very exciting project, and we aim to have a well being sanctioned sometime in 2028. Next slide, please.

Another very exciting project and block, Block EG-23 in Equatorial Guinea. We have high-graded the Estrella discovery, very exciting discovery with a well tested above 6,700 barrels of oil per day and almost 50 million standard cubic feet of gas.

It's about 10 kilometers from existing producing facilities of the Alba Field, making it a very fast-track and easy tie-back. You can see next to Estrella the Green Rodo discovery that conceptually could be a comingled development of Estrella and Rodo with one platform and drilling center.

Another exciting project to follow. Next slide, please.

Thank you. I will hand over to Qazi Qadeer to take you through the full-year results.

Qazi Qadeer

Thank you so much, Eric. Good morning, everyone.

I'm going to discuss very briefly the 4Q and full-year highlights for for 2025. We're looking at, a revenue of $216 million, a little bit less compared to 2024, but it is a function of two items, which is oil price and the the the composition of liftings, which can basically, affect a cutoff of the sales if they're very, very close to the period end.

EBITDA was $98 million approximately. Again, this was driven by by the the the volumes lifted during the year versus the the realization for the year compared to 2024.

We came exactly on our guidance on the capital expenditure program of $40 million US dollars, which we believe is a good result for for for the discipline of capital we maintain at the company. Strong cash position: $77 million, and we are basically fully drawn on our on our bond, which we raised last year.

Very, very healthy and strong cash flow generation from operation at $73 million US dollars. We are looking at a cash distribution of 50 million kroner, which we have announced this morning to be paid on or about 10th of March.

Just looking at, the the few years we have started to declare our distributions, accumulated basis is about 710 million kroner, with with a very healthy set of buybacks as well at 135 million kroner. Next slide, please.

Just to talk a little bit a bit about the shareholder return. Effectively, we have returned, 30% of our current market cap.

Obviously, this will be a little bit, different if we if we consider the market cap of this morning, but certainly, when we wrote this presentation, 30% of market cap since since we started consistent distributions since March 2023. A very healthy yield so far we have maintained, but obviously, we are constrained by the by the framework that we have under our bond terms, which basically give us a finite capacity for distributions in 2026, which is about, in equivalent terms, $21 million US dollars.

Of this, we have, distributed for this quarter about 50 million kroner equivalent. Next slide, please.

We're going to talk a little bit about guidance on liftings and and, also discuss, how how the announced acquisition affects our our business. Very, very, positive change from the acquisition of Kosmos' interest, which is expected to to be fully available to us in 2027, but certainly from from the later part of the year when we complete the transaction in the third quarter 2026.

On existing basis, business basis, we are talking about a accumulation of inventories until the first half of the year, which is about, close to 600,000 barrels, but very, very active, sale campaign in in later part of the year. For guidance purposes, on existing asset base, 3 million to 3.5 million barrels of sales versus, assuming on a pro forma basis, we get about, 5.1 million to 5.5 million barrels of sales for this year.

Now, what it also does is that it increases our frequency of the lifting, and, during the completion period with the with the Kosmos transaction, we are still taking the benefit of, a more spread-out, profile of our of our crude liftings, which also exposes us to to more data points on on the pricing for for our crude. Next slide, please.

Again, just talking about, how the how the build-up for for cash has been for for this last past year. As I mentioned, very healthy cash flow generation from operations.

We have also, between the the the recycling of inventories through through advances, we are close to about, $100 million of, cash flow, including operations, with our, disciplined delivery on the on the capital expenditure of about $40 million, and, after paying off for all our obligations. We are returning about, close to $40 million in share buybacks and cash distributions for this year, ending with about $77 million of cash at the balance sheet as of 31st of December 2025.

We are also, as you've seen, announcing a tap issue for $150 million bond to fund the acquisition of our announcement this morning to take the working interest of Kosmos Energy's Block G, 40.375%. This will basically be the the the source which will basically fund this this acquisition later in the year.

For guidance purposes, we have some capital expenditure, which is about, $50 to $55 million US dollars on a on existing basis of the assets, and with on a pro forma basis, assuming we we complete the transaction with Kosmos, it is going to be another, $15 to $17 million higher. Next slide, please.

Just in summary, I will let Eric summarize, the messaging for, and then we'll we'll go straight into Q&A.

Eric d'Argentré

Thank you, Qazi. As as a summary and and the main message for you today is that we are we are delivering on on our strategy, on our growth strategy.

The first pillar being the production baseline and the reserves. We have produced highest production this year in in 2025, last year, at record level.

We have FID-ed the Mabomo Phase 2, as we discussed. That will take us back to 40,000 on on the Dussafu Block.

That's a very exciting Phase 2 drilling. We have a consistent organic reserve replacement, whether it is in Gabon or in Equatorial Guinea, as well as in Tunisia.

In in parallel to this strong production and and reserve base, we are maturing gross project in our asset portfolio with the Bourdon discovery in Gabon. We mentioned, and I mentioned, the Estrella project in Block EG-23, for which we expect resource recognition very soon, and the new 3D seismic we just acquired with our partners, BW Energy and VAALCO, on Niosi, Guduma, and Dussafu Block will allow us to mature and firm up extra additional growth within the South of Gabon area where we are already.

In terms of corporate in our growth strategy, Panoro has a strong track record of accretive M&A. That's part of the company DNA, and we have delivered on that strategy with the announcement yesterday of the acquisition of the 40.375% interest of Kosmos in Block G, offshore Equatorial Guinea.

Thank you. That's the last slide.

We'll now go on the on the Q&A for for some time, and I would remind you to try and focus on the big news of last night and this morning on Block G so that we we stay focused. Thank you.

Andy Diamond

Thank you, Eric. We will now open up to Q&A.

As has previously been mentioned, for obvious reasons, we are on a tight timetable today. If we don't manage to answer your question or get to you, please do contact us on [email protected] or [email protected], and we will get back to you.

First question is from Stéphane Foucaud. Stéphane, you're unmuted.

If you'd like to please go ahead and ask your question.

Stéphane Foucaud

Yes, good morning, gents, and thanks for taking my question. It's really around EG and around the production profile over the coming years.

Two on that. The first one, could you confirm if this production profile is indeed just on the 2P case, or whether it includes some 2Cs to achieve the targets?

Then, I think you talk about a $540 million of capex from 2026 to 2031, I think it is. Could you give a sense of the timing of that capex, how it is spread over the years?

Thank you.

Eric d'Argentré

Okay. All right, thanks, Stéphane.

To answer your question, we have in term of production and the 5 years plan, about your 2P, 2Cs, we are talking here about the 2P, not the 2C in this 5 years plan. The 2C would come as an addition to this 5 years plan.

The drilling we mentioned is on current recognized reserves, but not all developed, undeveloped reserves. The other part of your question on the capex, the next 5 years plan and metrics means producing around 55 million barrel of oil at an average cost of $10 per barrel.

You can well imagine that some of the work, like stimulation or light workover on the Okume Complex, may come at $5, $4 to $5 a barrel development. Drilling in Okume Complex is more within the $10 to $12 or $13 range, and the Ceiba drilling will be around $15 to $17 per barrel development cost.

The average of this large portfolio is around $10 per barrel development cost.

Stéphane Foucaud

If I understand therefore looking at the slide, that means that properly the higher cost in overall will probably come in the later years rather than the earlier years of the program?

Eric d'Argentré

Exactly. The Ceiba drilling needs more work, more engineering.

It's higher investments. We are going for the conventional shallow water first, easy barrels on Okume well stock, maximizing the existing well stock, and then we will go on drilling, and the Ceiba drilling will come after the Okume drilling campaign.

That's where we are very very much aligned with the operator.

Stéphane Foucaud

Great. Thank you very much, and congratulations.

Eric d'Argentré

Welcome.

Andy Diamond

Thank you. I'd remind anyone wanting to ask a question to please raise their hand.

Okay. On the basis that there are no further questions pending, I'd just like to remind you, if you do have a question after this call, please feel free to contact us online, and we will get back to you.

Otherwise, that will conclude today's webinar. Thank you very much.

Stéphane Foucaud

Thank you.

Eric d'Argentré

Thank you very much.