BAE Systems plc

BAE Systems plc

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Feb 25Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 18, 2026

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the BAE Systems 2025 Preliminary Results conference call and webcast.

At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be the question-and-answer session.

To ask a question during the session, you need to press *11 on your telephone keypad. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.

To withdraw your question, please press *1 and 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Paul Checketts. Please go ahead.

Paul Checketts

Welcome to BAE Systems 2025 full-year results. I'm Paul Checketts, Director of Investor Relations.

With me, I have Charles Woodburn, our Group Chief Executive; Tom Arseneault, Chief Executive Officer of BAE Systems, Inc.; and Brad Greve, our Chief Financial Officer. Charles, over to you.

Charles Woodburn

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning. Before we begin, I want to thank our employees, trade unions, and supply chain partners for the tireless work they do to ensure we deliver on our commitments to our customers.

Delivering reliably on our mission to protect those who protect us is vitally important given the increased threats to security around the world. There are three key messages I'd like to leave you with today.

First, 2025 was another year of strong performance. We delivered solid growth in revenue, profit, earnings per share, and order intake, and once again, cash flow was high.

Second, the breadth of our business across air, land, sea, cyber, and space and across multiple geographies puts us in an exceptionally strong position for both current and future opportunities in defense. Third, we are confident in the future growth we can deliver and the duration of that growth.

We delivered strong outcomes in 2025. Sales and EBIT both grew at double-digit rates.

Cash generation was high, and we secured £37 billion of new order intake, demonstrating strong demand for our products. Our order backlog increased to a new record of £84 billion, around three times our annual sales.

At the same time as focusing on delivery today, we're preparing for our future. Part of this is investing in research and development and capex.

Our collective spending on these in 2025 was our highest ever. These results extend the track record we've built over multiple years of strong financial and operational performance and demonstrate our value compounding model in action.

If we step back and look at our performance over the last five years, the story is compelling. At constant currency, our sales are up more than 50%.

That's around 8% compound growth each year. We've also steadily expanded our margins, adding around 100 basis points or roughly 20 basis points a year.

Because of that, our EBIT has grown even faster than sales, up by more than 60%. Earnings per share have been even stronger, increasing by over 70%, which equates to a 12% compound growth rate.

Importantly, we continue to convert earnings into cash at a very high level. Across these five years, we've generated more than £11 billion of free cash flow.

That cash gives us real strategic flexibility. It's allowed us to reinvest in the business to support further organic growth and to make targeted, value-enhancing acquisitions.

It's also supported increasing shareholder returns with dividends per share growth at around 9% a year. Overall, we're delivering strongly and consistently across the key financial metrics, and we see a very clear path for further progress.

Our business has an outstanding geographic footprint. We have established positions in some of the largest defense markets in the world.

This gives us an excellent breadth of opportunity and reduces the risk and volatility that comes with being more concentrated. Across all our key regions, defense spending is increasing because of the growing threats to national security.

In each of our markets, the work we've done to invest in and position our business means our existing proven portfolio of capabilities aligns well to customer priorities. We'll look at Europe and the US in more depth shortly.

Here in the UK, the government has committed to the largest sustained increase in defense spending since the end of the Cold War. The UK Strategic Defence Review set out its vision for defense to move to greater warfighting readiness and to act as an engine of UK economic growth.

It committed to invest in both our long-term programs and new disruptive technologies. We formed a new joint venture with industrial partners in Japan and Italy to design and develop the next-generation combat aircraft under the Global Combat Air Programme, or GCAP.

More broadly, Japan is on a path to double its defense spending by 2027, and we're exploring how we can support the country in other areas of defense capability. Australia is also increasing its defense spending.

We're already the largest defense contractor in Australia, and through the Hunter Class Frigate Program and SSN-AUKUS, where we'll deliver state-of-the-art nuclear-powered submarines, we expect strong, long-term growth. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is likely to drive higher defense spending in the region.

The largest defense market there is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where we have a 60-year track record of partnership. Their 2026 military budget is expected to increase by 5%, and areas of long-term focus include combat aircraft, missile defense systems, naval vessels, and further increasing the localization of defense spend.

Across the globe, our growth opportunities are significant, and we're focused on consistently executing our long-term strategy to deliver strong top-line growth, margin expansion, and cash generation. Over the past 12 months, there have been three consistent themes that have come up in our discussions with investors.

First is our exposure to Europe, considering the rising threat posed by Russia, which is now driving increased defense expenditures in the region. The second is our shareholding in MBDA, given the growing significance of this business as Europe's preeminent manufacturer of missile systems.

The third is the evolution of modern warfare and why we feel so confident in the continued and, indeed, increasing relevance of our portfolio, particularly in the light of new opportunities such as Golden Dome. As a result, we wanted to spend a few minutes focusing on each of these areas in turn, bringing Tom in to cover our US business.

The last year has seen a profound change in Europe's security situation, with the continent facing an acute and growing threat. In response, most countries are now significantly increasing the amount they spend on defense, underpinned by their commitment to meet NATO's target by 2035 of 3.5% of GDP being spent annually on core defense requirements and 5% in total.

We're one of the leading defense companies in Europe, and our business is going from strength to strength. When you look across the continent, our equipment and services are integral to the defense of more than 25 countries.

We have great capabilities across multiple areas, including combat air, land vehicles, and missile systems. Growth for us in Europe is higher than the overall group, and at the same time, our order backlog has increased materially, now representing 32% of our total, compared with 11% of our current annual sales in this region.

To support our customers as they look to rebuild defense readiness, we're investing to support increased capacity, efficiencies, and enhanced capabilities. An excellent example of our critical role in the defense of Europe, both today and in the future, is MBDA.

As a reminder, MBDA provides sovereign capabilities to Europe and is a shining example of European defense collaboration. It's a joint venture between BAE Systems, Airbus, and Leonardo, with our shareholding totaling 37.5%.

MBDA is a world leader in missile systems and the number one player in Europe. Their portfolio has excellent breadth, with products in service with more than 90 armed forces around the world.

When you look at the critical areas where Europe and its allies are looking to rapidly improve defense readiness, MBDA has proven products. Areas of strength include air dominance, since MBDA provides weapons for more than 10 different combat aircraft, including Typhoon, Rafale, Gripen, and KF-21.

In air defense, they have capabilities across land and sea, including counter-drone, short-range air defense, and medium-range, including anti-ballistic missile threats. For longer ranges, they have a complete array of deep strike precision products, all of which makes MBDA extremely well-positioned to benefit from increased defense spending as European and other nations focus on growing their weapons capabilities and inventories.

You can see the high demand for MBDA's products in their momentum since 2021. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, order intake has stepped up from a cadence of around €4 billion per year to €13 billion.

The order backlog has increased by 150% to €44 billion, or 7.5 times annual revenue. Over that four-year period, revenue has increased by 37%, a compound average growth of 8% to €5.8 billion, with improving momentum in recent years.

MBDA is investing to fulfill orders and support customers' urgent needs. Significant funds are already committed over the medium term.

They're renewing sites, accelerating digitalization, significantly increasing production capacity, investing in their supply chain, and developing new products and technology. The combination of investing in the business, the high order backlog, and the alignment of the portfolio with customer needs mean MBDA is positioned for continued strong revenue growth in the coming years.

I'll now hand over to Tom, who will explain why we are confident about the outlook for our business in the US. ):

Tom Arseneault

Thank you, Charles. Across the US business, our strong performance in 2025 reflects our continuing efforts to align our portfolio strategy with evolving US government defense and intelligence priorities.

This enables us to support a broad range of programs and deliver for our customers with speed and at scale. We remain well-positioned in areas the US administration is clearly focused on.

National security space and missile defense capabilities will play critical roles in the Golden Dome architecture, and we support a number of the key mission solutions which underpin it. For example, as a result of emerging demand for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, interceptor, we expect a fourfold increase in production of our THAAD seeker over the life of the seven-year contract.

Our critical electronics and sophisticated apertures will also factor into the production ramps of other key munitions, such as the Long Range Anti-Ship Missile, or LRASM. Production of these additional key munitions will at least double in the coming years.

Our teams are also rapidly developing and delivering cost-effective counter-UAS capabilities. Last year, we were awarded a new five-year IDIQ contract worth up to $1.7 billion from the US Navy to produce additional APKWS kits.

This precision munition is combat-proven for both surface-to-air and air-to-air engagements against hostile drones. Our Platforms & Services team has expanded its maritime business, allowing us to apply our highly skilled workforce and industrial capacity to contribute to the US submarine and surface ship industrial base, in addition to ongoing ship repair and modernization support for the US Navy and commercial customers.

): While we have been investing in capacity and innovation for many years, the current market environment and long-term demand signals present additional opportunity. Since 2020, the businesses across our US portfolio have invested more than $4 billion to expand production capacity and advance our research and development to deliver growth.

To further support that growth, our workforce has increased by nearly 14%, and we've expanded our footprint by more than 2 million square feet. While there has been considerable focus on supporting the record production rates associated with key munitions demand, we have also been leveraging investments in a number of other important areas.

In our Electronic Systems business, we have been investing to modernize and expand our microelectronics center to triple our production capacity for critical electronic components, supporting electronic warfare and other applications. Our Space & Mission Systems team has invested to develop Elevation, a new series of cost-effective modular spacecraft that will deliver world-class reliability and performance.

An Elevation spacecraft has already been selected for the $1.2 billion Resilient Missile Warning and Tracking program we won last year. Supported by previous investments in combat vehicle manufacturing and robotic welding, we anticipate more than doubling our vehicle production compared to 2024 levels.

In the maritime domain, our new state-of-the-art shiplift in Jacksonville, Florida, is now operational and will increase the capacity of that shipyard threefold. These are but a few examples of our investments in capacity and key technologies to support growth and ensure we deliver to our customers at speed and at scale.

With that, Charles, I'll hand it back over to you.

Charles Woodburn

Thanks, Tom. Technology and innovation sit right at the heart of our strategy and have done for many years.

In 2025, we took that commitment further, increasing our self-funded research and development to a new record level. Let's look at how we develop the next generation of defense capabilities and our competitive advantages in technology.

Areas of the defense market are developing at a rapid pace. Technology is being embraced, and a number of companies are competing, including new entrants who often don't come from a purely defense background.

This includes in drones, counter-drone systems, and autonomy more generally. While it's a competitive market, solving the complex problems involved in producing equipment that works in a warfighting domain is extremely difficult.

We bring together an understanding of our customers' operational needs with an understanding of the operating environment, agile software capability, differentiated hardware, and an ability to successfully integrate the various elements rapidly, and crucially, the capability to scale up production quickly. I'll give you some examples to bring this to life.

First, our platforms and products are deployed on the battlefield today, which gives us firsthand understanding of our customers' operating environments in real time. For example, our Callen-Lenz drones have proven themselves to be resilient and capable in extremely contested electronic warfare environments, and we take all these learnings into other products across our portfolio.

A second highlight is our agile software capability. We are actively using generative AI to allow drones to understand the commander's intent and then configure their own software to best deliver that mission need.

We wrap these capabilities within well-understood assurance methodologies, which means the drones are only able to operate within the parameters set by their human operators. This enables rapid introduction of new behavior models and allows the drone to perform missions that were not originally envisaged.

Next, consider our differentiated hardware. While software can define the optimal tactics for deploying artillery, being able to implement these tactics still requires a platform.

Our mobile artillery system, Archer, can deploy, fire four rounds, and leave the location before the first round has reached its target. Now to integration.

Bringing together the APKWS precision guided munition from our US business, heavy lift quadcopter technology from our Malloy acquisition, and expertise in weapons integration from FalconWorks, a major step was achieved when we successfully used a drone to shoot down another drone. In just four months, we moved from concept to successful live-firing trials.

Finally, our APKWS technology more generally is a great example of how we can scale up quickly. It has brought down the cost of counter-drone technology by so much that it's similar to the cost of the drones it targets.

We've now produced over 100,000 units in total, and by the end of this year, we anticipate more than doubling our production rate compared to 2024. Our combination of established multi-domain expertise, decades of delivery, and agile software capability gives us an advantage that many of our competitors simply can't match.

It provides our customers trusted, differentiated solutions that are proven to work on the battlefield, and this provides us with a competitive advantage. Now over to Brad for the financials.

Brad Greve

Thanks, Charles. It's been a really strong year for the business.

We delivered a record year in sales for the group with a 10% increase while building our backlog to an all-time high of £84 billion. Our focus on efficient delivery contributed to a 12% increase in underlying EBIT, and we posted a double-digit increase as well in earnings per share.

Free cash flow at £2.2 billion was above our guidance, with the benefit of strong delivery and material customer advances. This free cash was after double-digit increases in R&D and continued high levels of capital expenditure.

After all of these increased internal investments, we returned £1.5 billion to shareholders, in line with our disciplined capital allocation policy. All of these numbers highlight the health and effectiveness of our value compounding model.

I'll now break these results down in more detail, and as usual, when comparing results to prior periods, I will use a constant currency basis. With orders of £37 billion, the book-to-bill was 1.2 and reflected the continued relevance of our broad technical and geographical reach.

Key orders in the year featured close to £9 billion in Electronic Systems orders. This included £2 billion from our Space business, featuring the missile warning and tracking satellite systems for the US Space Force; £6 billion in our P&S business, including significant orders in Europe for Hägglunds and Bofors and over £2 billion for US combat vehicles.

The Air sector recorded £15 billion, including the Typhoon win in Turkey and £4.2 billion in MBDA. Our Maritime business recorded £5 billion in orders, including increased funding for submarines.

Finally, the Cyber & Intelligence sector recorded a further £2.7 billion. Our record backlog, together with the pipeline of incumbencies, sets us up well for continued growth over the medium term.

We grew sales by 10% to reach £30.7 billion, with growth across all sectors. Organic growth was 9%.

Platforms & Services led the group with a 17% increase, hitting £5 billion for the year. European growth in Hägglunds and Bofors was over 30%, while our US combat vehicle business grew by 15%.

Maritime continued to grow in double digits, up 11% to £6.8 billion, with strong growth in design work for the SSN-AUKUS submarine and double-digit growth in Australia. The Air sector rose by 9% to reach £9.3 billion, with 17% growth in MBDA, GCAP ramp, and continued growth in drone sales in FalconWorks.

Electronic Systems sales rose by 8%, paced by double-digit gains in EW sales, strong contributions from our precision strike and sensing activities, and the full-year contribution from the Space business. Finally, Cyber & Intelligence was up 2%, predominantly on gains in counter-drone sales.

Group EBIT of £3.3 billion was up 12%, and our margin of 10.8% represented 20 basis points of expansion. This means over the last five years, we have delivered 100 basis points of expansion.

The largest gains in EBIT came from P&S with 30% growth to reach £576 million. Margin climbed 110 basis points to 11.4%, with accretion on higher full-rate production volumes from AMPV and growth in our European businesses.

Electronic Systems EBIT rose by 12%, with margins growing by 50 basis points to 15.4%, including a strong contribution from SMS. The Air sector EBIT grew by 10%, with margins of 11.9% at the high end of our guidance range.

Maritime margins reflected the early-stage maturity of the portfolio, with several first-in-class programs trading at relatively low margins. We expect margins to improve in 2026 and beyond as these programs mature and as key milestones are achieved, allowing for risk release.

Cyber & Intelligence EBIT was up 15%, with a full year of Kirintec included. Organic growth for the sector was 10%.

The group delivered operating cash flow of £2.8 billion, significantly higher than our expectations as large customer advances were received fairly late in the year. With close to £1 billion of capex, we once again invested at levels substantially higher than depreciation, with capacity expansion and efficiency investments across the portfolio.

There was a reduction in net advance inflows in 2025 compared with 2024 in P&S and Air, which is the primary driver for the reduction in operating cash flow. Our free cash flow, after netting tax and finance costs, was £2.2 billion.

The strong performance contributed to a 22% reduction in net debt, which landed at £3.8 billion. Excluding lease liabilities, the net debt to EBITDA was 0.9 times.

Our strong balance sheet provides excellent optionality to support our growth ambitions, and it was good to see this month's rating upgrade from Moody's taking us up to A3. Turning now to guidance, we anticipate another strong year of sales with a 7% to 9% growth range, supported by the record backlog.

Strong sales in Air and continued growth in Europe for P&S should drive both sectors up in the 9% to 11% range, while growth in Space and EW should drive growth in ES in the 6% to 8% range. Growth in Maritime and Cyber are expected to be in mid-single digits.

EBIT should grow above sales, with more margin expansion expected. Our guidance is for a 9% to 11% growth in profitability across the group.

Earnings per share should grow in line with EBIT at 9% to 11%, despite a higher tax rate anticipated in 2026. Regarding free cash, we do not include material advance receipts in our guidance.

As you have seen in 2025, this can result in large positive variances, but given the difficulty in predicting these, we exclude them from guidance. We do include the anticipated unwind of existing advances.

For 2026, we expect free cash flow to exceed £1.3 billion, reflecting advance unwinds and continued high levels of capex investment planned. With a strong 2025 delivered, our guidance for 2026 demonstrates our confidence in the continued high performance of our business across all key measures.

I'd like to discuss the three-year cash delivery in a little bit more detail. Our consistency in hitting our three-year guides continued in 2025, where we've recorded £7.3 billion over these last three years.

For the next three-year period covering '26 to '28, the target we are setting today is to exceed £6 billion, including an assumed unwind of advances and high levels of investment to support growth. I'll end my section of the presentation with a quick reminder of our consistent, value-creating capital allocation model.

The first rung on our ladder is investing in the business, specifically in our people, facilities, and technology. From the skills academies we opened to our commitment to early careers programs and a constant focus on building strong teams and leaders, investment in our people is essential to delivering our strategy.

We've invested over £1 billion since 2020 on education and skills. Our investments in capex to increase the efficiency in how we deliver to our customers, as well as expanding the capacity of what we deliver, continues to be maintained at very high levels, helping us to drive growth.

Our investments in capex are over £4 billion since 2020 and are now averaging close to £1 billion a year. Our higher investments in self-funded R&D help to increase differentiation and open new revenue streams.

These investments have increased by 70% since 2020, and programs like the APKWS illustrate how these convert to value. The second rung of the ladder is our dividend, which is covered approximately two times by underlying earnings.

Our dividends have increased for 22 consecutive years, and today, we have announced a 10% increase for our full-year 2025 dividend. While maintaining our strong balance sheet with a focus on preserving investment grading, we have strong optionality to use M&A to grow the portfolio, as we've done successfully over the last several years, with over £6 billion invested since 2020.

Finally, when there is surplus cash after all of these allocations, buying back our shares has proven to be another important way we've returned cash to our shareholders. We've retired 9% of our ordinary share count since the program started in the summer of 2021.

Handing over to Charles with a final comment that our value compounding model has led to a high compound annual growth rate in both sales and underlying EBIT over the last several years, significantly enabled by this consistent approach in the allocation of capital. Over this time, we have also converted cash at very high levels.

With our record backlog and pipeline, we are very well-positioned for continued strong delivery across the medium term. Over to you, Charles.

Charles Woodburn

Thanks, Brad. Looking ahead, we're well-positioned to keep building on our momentum.

A key strength of BAE Systems is not just our near-term growth, but the visibility we have over the long term. Our order backlog and incumbent program positions total around £260 billion, nearly nine times our annual sales.

This includes both shorter-cycle products such as drones, counter-drones, and munitions, where we're currently experiencing high growth, but also critical, multi-decade programs such as frigates and submarines, with long-term embedded value. Some of our biggest programs, like the Global Combat Air Programme and SSN-AUKUS submarines, don't come into full production until the mid-2030s and beyond.

The combination of our order backlog, incumbent positions, and a strong, new business opportunity pipeline due to rising defense spending gives us the visibility and confidence that we can deliver strong growth for an extended period. Bringing this all together, what should it mean for investors?

The combination of our exceptional breadth of world-class defense products and capabilities, strong positions in some of the largest defense markets in the world, a continued focus on execution while increasing our investments in technology and innovation, and a large backlog of long-term work with significant new business opportunities means we're confident we can deliver strong revenue growth that is both visible and sustainable over multiple years, with higher margins and strong cash generation, all of which will be amplified by our disciplined capital allocation, giving us enhanced visibility on our value compounding model. Many thanks, and with that, we're ready for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press *11 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced.

To withdraw your question, please press *1 and 1 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.

This will take a few moments. Now, we're going to take our first question.

It comes from the line of Ross Law from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Please ask your question.

Ross Law

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

Thanks for taking my questions. The first is just on the US budget and the potential upside there for fiscal '27.

Are you actually planning for a $1.5 trillion scenario? When would this increase flow through to your P&L?

Second question, just on Europe, you highlighted that it's 11% of sales but 32% of the backlog. What do you expect the mix of European sales contribution to trend to mid-term, please?

Then lastly, just on MBDA, how should we think about the growth outlook there in terms of a CAGR? Thanks.

Charles Woodburn

Right. Morning, Ross.

The first one, US budget upside, Tom, do you want to take that one? ):

Tom Arseneault

Sure. Morning, Ross.

I think we're very encouraged by the trajectory of the budget. How the 2027 top line ends up remains to be seen, but it certainly is heading in the right direction.

It is not part of our current guidance, and so we do see upside in there. To the extent we've worked to align ourselves well with the National Defense Strategy and various priorities that fall out of that, I think we are well-positioned.

Golden Dome, for example, talk about the recent wins in both space layer and our involvement in the interceptors, THAAD and others. I think you'll see some of the budget applied there, as well as shipbuilding.

We've recently pivoted some of our maritime solutions to be a better part, as I mentioned earlier, of the shipbuilding, the submarine, and surface ship industrial base. I think we are well-positioned.

To the extent the budget heads in that direction, we're all encouraged by that.

Charles Woodburn

On the European composition, clearly, it's going to grow quite significantly with that 11% European ex-UK in our current sales and 32% in the order backlog. Quite what the final number ends up being, I think it's a bit hard to tell, and a lot depends back on things like US budgets as to the rate at which they grow and the relative rate of other areas.

I think it's a bit hard to judge, but we are looking at significant growth over the next five years as we build out that backlog. On MBDA, Brad, we've had already a pretty rapid growth.

I think it was 17% year-on-year growth last year to the year before. Do you want to comment a little bit on the outlook for that business?

Brad Greve

I'll just echo, too, on Europe. We had £3.6 billion of sales in Europe in 2025.

That is against £2.8 [billion] in 2024. You can already see how our European revenue growth is really accelerating.

Actually, our European business is bigger than our KSA business now, I think that's worth reflecting on and positioned for continued growth. MBDA, it's been a really strong 2025 with over 17% growth.

Charles laid out some of that backlog that they've got. Sometimes revenue there can be a bit choppy because it's point-on-delivery revenue recognition.

Some of that revenue growth may not be even. With that backlog they've got, we expect really continued high levels of growth for a long time to come here.

Also, Charles mentioned the production capacity investments that they're making, that will allow us to accelerate growth over the medium term once those get online. I think all of this points to a really strong outlook for MBDA on the back of what's already been a pretty strong run for that business.

Charles Woodburn

Thank you, Brad.

Ross Law

Many thanks.

Brad Greve

Thanks, Ross.

Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question.

The question comes from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research. Your line is open.

Please ask your question.

Robert Stallard

Thanks so much. Good morning.

Brad Greve

Morning, Rob. ):

Tom Arseneault

Hi, Rob.

Robert Stallard

Got a couple for you this morning. This might be for Tom and Charles.

Given the broader industry trends, are you expecting much higher capex in your US business going forward? In relation to that, are there any limits you potentially see on your flexibility on returning cash to shareholders?

Then secondly, you highlighted the growth potential at MBDA and the rapid growth you've seen already. You've seen one of your peers in the US announcing plans to spin a minority stake in its missile business.

Is there any chance of a similar move for MBDA? Thank you.

Charles Woodburn

I think on the MBDA, I think we're very happy with the business. We don't see any particular need to change the structure or the holding system at the moment.

We're just pleased to see the performance and keep supporting it. On capex, I'll maybe leave that to both you, Brad and Tom, to say a couple of words on it.

I would come back to the fact that we have, because of the good form of the business, ample capacity to invest as we have been at record levels. If we needed to increase, we could still do it and still maintain our very disciplined capital allocation strategy.

If you want to just say a couple of words on US in particular capex growth, maybe? ):

Tom Arseneault

Morning, Rob. In the US, clearly, we're focused on, and as we've all been encouraged by the executive order to make sure we are positioning and applying our capital resources in a way to help grow capacity and focus in areas of technology investments, some of which I mentioned earlier.

We're part of the THAAD program. We make the interceptor.

We anticipate signing our own head of agreement with the Department of War here in the coming weeks in order to secure that quadrupling of demand over the seven-year multiyear program. As part of that, we will look to invest appropriately.

It's quite a bit easier to close a business case on a multiyear demand like that to ensure that we can produce at that level. That's just one very near-term example.

We continue to focus and make sure we're applying our resources to the benefit of the Department of War and their priorities.

Charles Woodburn

Capex more generally, Brad,

Brad Greve

do you want to? At a higher level, Rob, as we laid out in the prepared remarks today, you've seen us talk about a lot more investment over the last three years.

We've been averaging sort of £1 billion a year. I would expect in the next three, it's likely to go up as we see this increasing growth environment that we're in.

A lot of that is, as Tom has laid out, is in the US. Overall, this is embedded in our three-year cash guide where we said we're going to have six over £6 billion in the next three years of free cash.

That is reflective of higher capex investments.

Robert Stallard

That's great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you.

Charles Woodburn

Thanks, Rob. Next question?

Operator

Thank you so much. Now we're going to take our next question.

It comes from the line of David Perry from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Please ask your question.

David Perry

Yes, good morning, Charles, Brad, and Tom. Two questions.

First one, just an update on AUKUS, please. I think the last few days, there's been quite a lot of press reporting out of Australia that the government there is about to commit A$30 billion to a new production facility.

Just any info you have on that. Then secondly for Tom, I think one of the surprises for me in the results was US land vehicles were both sales and margin were better than expected, because that's a business that you've been less bullish on recently.

Have you changed your view on that, and any thoughts on the outlook? Could there be more margin upside from where you are at the moment?

Thank you.

Charles Woodburn

Thanks, David. Good morning.

On AUKUS, I think, as you already alluded to, there was some announcements over the weekend about infrastructure investments in the Osborne precinct for the long-term build of SSN-AUKUS, which I think is excellent progress and just underlines the strength of the program longer term. From a UK perspective, as well, there's been continued investments in the design work that's going on on the SSN-AUKUS submarines.

I think, whilst we've always said this is a long-cycle program, much of it doesn't really bear fruit until well into the 2030s, these are early days, laying literally the foundations for the success of the program. I think we're making good progress on that.

On US land vehicles, I think Tom is the best place to answer that one. ):

Tom Arseneault

Yeah. Thank you, Charles, and good morning, David.

Yes, no, thank you for pointing that out. I think the team in Platforms & Services has done an excellent job of playing out the backlog that we've been reporting in recent years.

It's programs like the Amphibious Combat Vehicle, for example, which is a Marine Corps program, factors well into the Pacific deterrent dimension of the National Defense Strategy and an important vehicle for the Marine Corps, as well as the Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle, AMPV, which is the highest-volume vehicle running through the factories there. The margin improvement, excellent performance, coupled with some of the investments we'd made in recent years, robotic welding, etc., that help drive a little bit of automation, allowing for better throughput and some of those higher margins.

We continue to focus on delivering for our customer and ensuring that we can return to the shareholders at the same time. I will point out, our combat vehicle portfolio also includes the business in Hägglunds in Sweden, and that business is growing quite strongly.

It was in the press late last year working on a six-nation agreement for CV90s that'll likely result in orders for additional vehicles in the hundreds. The six nations: Finland, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, Lithuania, and Estonia.

The team is working with all six nations now in order to hammer out an agreement for a common vehicle platform across those nations. I hope that's helpful.

Charles Woodburn

Which I might say is a great example of European partnership on a program like that. Next question?

Thank you, David.

Operator

Now we're going to take our next question. It comes from the line of Christophe Menard from Deutsche Bank.

Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Christophe Menard

Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my question.

I had three. The first one is still on the US.

Can you comment on the drive for affordability in the US? How does it impact you?

Is it in technology programs or in, for instance, I don't know, the Radford rebid that's coming up? Second question is on capital allocation, share buyback.

The 1.5 trillion is coming to an end, I think, around June. What are the plans beyond?

The last one is on order intake. I'm always very positively surprised by your order intake.

Any guidance for 2026 of book-to-bill or any key orders we should be watching in terms of influencing the order intake in '26? Thank you.

Charles Woodburn

Very good. Morning, Christophe.

Drive for affordability, I will let Tom say a few words on that, but we are broadly supportive of the intent of the executive order to improve production rates and make sure that we deliver on the programs. Capital allocation, I might correct you there, it was 1.5 billion, not 1.5 trillion.

I'll hand over to Brad to do that one. Then order intake guidance, as we don't guide on order intake.

They tend to be quite lumpy. If Brad, as you're answering capital allocation, you want to expand on that, by all means do.

Maybe, Tom, over to you on the drive for affordability. ):

Tom Arseneault

Yeah. No, that's a great question.

Thank you, Christophe. The focus on affordability is highly enabled by volume production, right?

Some of these investments in capacity, I mentioned robotic welding a little bit earlier, brings automation to bear, drives for the economies of scale and economies of labor and automation that allow us to create a more affordable situation. Investments in technology around how we're driving, for example, as I mentioned earlier, the microelectronics position, right?

As microelectronics get denser and denser, we're able to get more capability into smaller space, drive down the bills of material on some of these items, and again, helps with affordability. We're looking at it in every dimension, from the way we work all the way through to the technology we apply.

I hope that's helpful.

Charles Woodburn

Brad, do you want to talk about capital allocation?

Brad Greve

Yeah. Thank you.

Good morning. I think it's healthy just to look back at our capital allocation hierarchy again.

The first rung on that ladder, as we said, was investment in the business. This takes the shape of investment in our people, the billion that we've spent over the last several years on skills academies and early careers programs, self-funded R&D.

We've been making meaningful increases in those investments and capex. We've talked a lot in this presentation about how much we're increasing our investments there in capex.

All this, I think, is very much aligned to a growing business in a growing backdrop. Our customers all want capability faster, and our investments are designed to do that.

That is our very first priority, and that's completely aligned with our customers' view on this. After that, of course, we have a dividend policy that's very established and clear, covered two times by underlying earnings.

We've then looked at M&A as sort of another rung and using that strong balance sheet to increase and enhance our portfolio. Finally, if there's cash left over after all of this, that's when the buyback program kicks in.

We're in a situation with the business that across all these increases of internal investments and dividends and the M&A we've been doing, we still have had cash left over. I think that's been a useful tool to deploy that surplus cash.

Charles Woodburn

Then on order intake guidance, as I said, we don't give guidance, but Tom alluded to, for example, more CV90 potential orders translating. The Type 26 selection by the Norwegians is not yet in order backlog.

We've got a number of additional opportunities for Eurofighter, both support and new aircraft sales. Electronic Systems, there's opportunities with Compass Call.

There's a wide hopper of opportunities. As you always know, some of these big programs, quite what year they fall from an order intake perspective can be a little hard to predict, which is why we're cautious around giving specific guidance on that.

Christophe Menard

Thank you very much. Yes, indeed, it was 1.5 billion.

Thank you. No,

Charles Woodburn

I knew I was joking, to be honest, Christophe. Anyway, thank you, Christophe.

Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question.

Just give us a moment. The question comes from the line of Ian Douglas-Pennant from UBS.

Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Hi.

Ian Douglas-Pennant

Thanks very much. I have three, at least, one of which is quite quick.

Firstly, on the free cash flow, your free cash flow guidance 2025 to '27 implies £2 billion of free cash flow in 2027, which is a decline on what we've seen recently. Can you talk about why that's the case and obviously, I hear what you're saying on the advanced payments, but anything else beyond that we should be considering?

Secondly, could you talk about the outlook for tax rates? I think your communication there has changed.

Thirdly, on the Eurofighter, can you talk about the long-term production rate plans there, given some of the recent demand we've seen coming in? Related to that, could you talk about progress on FCAS and when you now think that will be ready for use for customers?

Thank you.

Charles Woodburn

Very good. Maybe the first couple for you there, Brad, free cash flow and

Brad Greve

Morning, Ian. Free cash flow, really, the story on the variability is not a new story.

It's just really down to how advances move and how we guide on the basis of a conservative outlook on advances where we always model the burn of advances. In 2026, we expect to have a circa £600 million burn down of advances.

We haven't guided to any material advance receipts, to the extent those come in, that would be upside to what we've guided. That also is true of the forward guidance ranges in those three-year increments that we've outlined.

None of those include material receipts for new advances, but all of those new ranges looking ahead include burn down. I think that's really the simple explanation of your question on that one.

Then on tax rates, we expect an increase in 2026, and that's mainly coming from '25, we did have some prior year releases from some retired tax issues. Those obviously don't recur in '26.

The France tax regime has carried forward what was meant to be a one-year surplus in tax rates. They've now taken those into a second year.

The France tax rate's 36% compared to what we expect to be sort of in the mid-20s. I think that really explains the tax movements, and a 22% guidance for ETR for '26, that's probably a range that's likely to endure for a little bit longer.

Charles Woodburn

Thank you, Brad. On Eurofighter, we've talked before about sort of the pathway to doubling production rates, and I think we're well on that having secured Türkiye.

There are other opportunities. Obviously, some European buys that you're well aware of.

We'll look to adjust that, but I think that we said at the time at the Capital Markets Day last year that it was sort of a couple of year trajectory to get to the new production rates, and we're well on that journey. We will adjust if needed upwards if we are successful in securing further orders.

Of course, the good news is that we now have production requirements all the way through to when we start doing final assembly of a GCAP capability, which is important. Then I think to your final question, GCAP is making really good progress.

We have a really strong team moving well, and delighted with the partnership that we have and moving at pace.

Operator

Thank you, Ian. Now we're going to take our next question.

The question comes from the line of Olivier Brochet from Rothschild & Co. Your line is open.

Please ask your question.

Olivier Brochet

Yes, good morning, Charles, Tom, Brad. I would have a couple of things to ask.

The first one is on the operating cash flow in H2. It doubled in Electronic Systems.

Do you have any areas that you would like to point to to explain the move? On the same vein, did you have any cash payment catch up on the F-35 after the release from inventory of the aircraft last year?

The second question would be on the space exposure. Can you maybe size how big it is across the group, maybe in terms of backlog and sales, as you very helpfully did for the European business?

Charles Woodburn

On cash OCF, do you want to do that, Brad? Then maybe over to you for space, Tom.

Brad Greve

Simply say, Olivier, we tend to have very back-weighted cash flow profiles. So '25 was no exception to that.

We did see some advances come through in our Space business from SMS into the US cash flow, so that was contributing factor in that. We always have a very H2-weighted cash profile, and that continued into 2025.

):

Tom Arseneault

Yeah. I think, backlogs in the former Ball Aerospace, now our Space & Mission Systems business, are at record levels.

After some delay in the early part of the year as the administration was settling in and working through its priorities, there were some pivots on their part early in the year, although as we moved to the half and beyond, we spoke at the half, and I mentioned earlier the the big win on missile warning and tracking. We won a ground systems award called FORGE C2 that'll is is a ground systems for this missile warning and tracking kind of mission.

In our national and military space businesses grew and and won a number of other programs. Record levels.

I think, Brad, just check me if I'm wrong, eight-ish billion for SMS. A a really good performance there and one that'll play out through sales growth here.

We're projecting double-digit sales growth in 2026.

Charles Woodburn

Very good. Thank you, Olivier.

Olivier Brochet

Thank you very much.

Operator

Now we're going to take our next question. It comes from the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca.

Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Alessandro Pozzi

Good morning. Thank you for taking the questions.

The first one is referring to your opening remarks about the outlook, very strong pipeline as well. I was wondering, can we have any color on the medium-term growth?

A lot of your peers have given 2030 targets. You don't guide to 2030, but I was wondering, is it the right time maybe to factor in an acceleration in top line and maybe growth of double digit rather than a high single digit, also in line of defense spending in the US going up?

The second question on the GCAP, there's lots of speculation that Germany and France may not go ahead with the FCAS any longer. Would you be able to accommodate Airbus as a new partner in the GCAP, and what the implication could have for the program?

Maybe a last one, any update on the Eurofighter potential opportunity in Saudi Arabia and any thoughts on that? Thank you.

Charles Woodburn

Outlook, thank you for the question, Alessandro. We don't, as give medium-term outlook, but we've been on a strong tempo of growth, and we do see that continuing.

As you probably are aware, everyone on this call, much debate around the UK, for example, and the Defense Investment Plan, and will there be more funding around that. I don't know any more to add to that other than as has been in the press already.

None of that is, in a sense, assumptions around that. Further upside would be in our guidance.

It would affect our medium-term outlook. We just have to wait and see how that plays through.

There is further upside, we think, to the medium-term outlook, depending on how things play through and indeed, as Tom alluded to already, with the US budgets, as we see how that plays through. That's not a '26 impact.

That would be a '27, '28, and beyond impact. On GCAP, really, the decisions around expanding the partnership are entirely down to the three governments of Italy, Japan, and the UK that are partners already, there's really not much more I can comment on that, apart from the fact that we have a really strong partnership that is making great progress and moving at pace.

On Eurofighter, again, there's little I can really add, apart from we have a large portfolio of additional opportunities for the Eurofighter platform. It's a superb superb fighter aircraft, and with the latest missile systems from MBDA, has extremely good capabilities.

We do see a range of additional opportunities both from existing customers and new customers, as we see with Türkiye coming into the Eurofighter family. That's really all I can say at this point.

Alessandro Pozzi

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you so much. Now we're going to take our next question.

The question comes from the line of Sam Burgess from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Please ask your question.

Sam Burgess

Morning, Charles, Brad, and Tom. Thanks for the questions.

Three, if I may. Firstly, just back on Europe, if there is movement in the rules on UK company participation in future European Defense Funds, just in big-picture terms, how material could this be for BAE Systems?

Secondly, can you give us just any directional indication of the expected magnitude of advance payments expected in 2026 relative to '25? Given quite a lot fell in Q4 '25, might we assume it's a slightly slower year in terms of prepayments?

Then thirdly, maybe one for Tom, just following on from Ross's questions about potential US budget increases. I know there's been a lot of kind of capex going in for Jacksonville and Louisville, but that was obviously in advance of some of the latest messaging from the US President on budget.

What's your sense on the areas that incremental budget spend maybe directed, and might you need to accelerate capex to capture some of that demand if it's not in your base case? Thank you.

Charles Woodburn

Thanks, Sam. Good set of questions.

On Europe, I would just come back to we're well-positioned within Europe. Our position with MBDA, Eurofighter, our Swedish businesses mean that we are very well-positioned, and we can happily partner with companies like PGZ in Poland, who are recipients of, for example, SAFE funding.

We can work with them. We see, as you've already seen in our order outlook, we're expecting significant growth in Europe.

It's a combination of selling in from our UK business, but very importantly, strongly enhanced by our footprint already within Europe and specifically the EU. Then in terms of advance payments, we don't guide around that.

It's very hard to predict, which is why we specifically exclude them from our cash guidance. I think that's probably the prudent place to be, and I think we're very clear around our position there.

Tom, areas for capex in the US, do you want to say a little bit about that? ):

Tom Arseneault

Happy to, and thank you for the question, Sam. If I had to point to one area, and again, as I mentioned earlier, we're very encouraged by the administration's move toward multiyear contracts, particularly in and around munitions.

If you look at the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, the budget outline, specifically section 804, that really outlines these multiyear procurements where they create effectively seven years of demand for some of these munitions. There are eight-ish munitions sort of called out there as key munitions.

We play a role on six of those. THAAD, I mentioned earlier, is one.

As we look to the sorts of volume increases associated with those, anywhere from doubling in production to quadrupling, there will definitely be some capex expected in those areas across the portfolio, by the way. That's both ES and SMS.

Those two businesses will contribute. I'd call that out as probably the dominant area, although there would be others.

Sam Burgess

Great. Thank you very much.

Really helpful.

Operator

Thank you so much. Now we're going to take our next question.

It comes from the line of Chloe Lemarie from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Please ask your question.

Chloe Lemarie

Yes, good morning, Charles, Brad, and Tom. Thank you for squeezing me in at what is the end.

I'd have a first question, please, on the 2026 to 2028 cash outlook. You've helpfully shared the £600 million advances burn in '26.

Could you maybe share how much over the total period you're factoring in for this? The second question is on P&S, obviously, quite a strong performance in '25.

We touched on the US platform performance, but I think a 30% growth in Bofors and Hägglunds was mentioned. Could you maybe touch on capacity utilization now in those businesses and the expansion phasing going forward?

Thank you.

Charles Woodburn

Over to you, Brad, for cash guidance, and then Tom for the excellent performance in P&S,

Tom Arseneault

if you

Brad Greve

could explain that. I think, Chloe, good morning, by the way.

The the £600 million burn down is is probably a a fair average to use across the the medium term, '26 to '28 cash guide. Again, we don't assume the any advances coming in, any prepayments coming in.

We do have a slightly higher capex, across the next three years. Then there's the normal working capital movements, but we will have higher profits, which will fall to cash.

All that weighted in is kind of what colors in that that £6 billion greater than the £6 billion cash guide over the next three years. It's going to be timing on programs that will dictate the the cash burn on advances.

It may not be evenly distributed 600 each year, but I I wouldn't be surprised if it's a number like that over the next three. ):

Tom Arseneault

Then on Hägglunds vehicle performance and production, P&S, again, thank you for highlighting that, really excellent performance on the part of that business. Remember, P&S includes both the US portfolio as well as Hägglunds and Bofors over in Sweden.

Again, we don't see additional capacity necessary in the US, for example. We have built that up over the course of the last five or six years, and so now we're sort of running at rate, focusing on good performance there, and that you can see in the bottom line of that business.

Over in Hägglunds, I mentioned earlier the six-nation opportunity. That would likely require some additional capex in Sweden, but we do, as we've reported in the past, spread that capacity work out into the countries to which those vehicles would be delivered in an industrial cooperation.

A modest investment there, we expect, but here's a business that was maybe 50 vehicles a year only a handful of years ago, now looking at maybe somewhere between 200, 300 vehicles a year. Really really good opportunity there, and the business has done well at scale.

I hope that is helpful.

Charles Woodburn

Thanks, Chloe.

Operator

Thank you so much.

Chloe Lemarie

Thank you.

Operator

Now we're going to take our next question. It comes from the line of Adrien Rabier from Bernstein.

Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Adrien Rabier

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.

I also have two, please. Sorry to ask again about the US budget, but if you don't mind me asking in a more basic manner, if we have anywhere near 50% growth in US budget in 2027, what would that mean for you?

How much do you expect to participate, and how long would it take to flow into your P&L? Then second question on your 2026 guidance, please.

Your sales growth target implies some sequential slowdown from 2025. As you said, budgets are growing, your key regions and backlog is rich, and you've been expanding capacity.

Should we see this as reasonable cushion, or is there reason to actually expect a slowdown this year?

Charles Woodburn

On the second one, the answer is no. Do you want to explain that a little bit, Brad?

Guidance, you're saying it's slowing down this year, but

Brad Greve

On top line.

Charles Woodburn

On top line.

Brad Greve

The growth that we printed for 2025, the 10%, included a full year of SMS, our Space business, formerly Ball Aerospace. That compares to a partial year in 2024.

If you look at organic growth rate in 20 2025, it was 9%. Again, if you put that in the context of our go-forward guidance where we're saying 7% to 9% for 2026, we're continuing to grow at these very high levels on a higher 2025 base.

Hopefully that helps you understand a little bit that we're continuing to grow in pretty high levels here.

Charles Woodburn

We still see strong momentum in the business. Maybe over to you, Tom, to say ): On the

Tom Arseneault

budget.

Charles Woodburn

US budgets. ):

Tom Arseneault

There is so much that has to play out here before we understand where the top line for 2027 will settle. Again, we're very encouraged by the directionality of this discussions around the budget.

You'd have to imagine that the way that would translate into portfolios would be, sort of relative to how well-aligned we are around the demand signals. We feel very well-aligned, as I've mentioned earlier, and so we would hope we would get a reasonably proportionate share.

The focus on the National Defense Strategy, deterrence in the Pacific, our electronic warfare, our space portfolio, the work we're doing to help with the submarine and shipbuilding industrial base. When it comes to defend the homeland, we spoke about Golden Dome, clearly space and the munitions side of that, counter-UAS with our APKWS solution.

We've worked to align as best we can with the National Defense Strategy. I think that's paying dividends for us, and we would hope to earn our fair share of that budget when it settles out.

Charles Woodburn

This would really play out in '28, '29. ):

Tom Arseneault

Right,

Brad Greve

exactly. It'll be some time before we know exactly where that is, but the directionality is clearly encouraging.

Adrien Rabier

Thank you. Thank you

Charles Woodburn

for the question, Aymeric.

Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question.

The question comes from the line of George McWhirter from Berenberg. Your line is open.

Please ask your question.

George McWhirter

Hi. Good morning.

Thank you for the questions. Maybe on R&D, going back to the comments that Charles you made about self-funded R&D reaching a record high this year, do you expect self-funded R&D to continue to account for the minority of R&D?

Or could you see that the self-funded share grows a bit faster than customer-funded as governments shift to a greater company-led innovation to reduce the time it takes for products to come to market? That's the first question.

Charles Woodburn

Okay. Is that the only question, or do you want to ask

George McWhirter

Sure. I can ask the second one.

Maybe on margins, you talked about 20 basis points of margin expansion a year for the past five years. Do you think this is a reasonable level that you can achieve in the next five years?

Charles Woodburn

Very good. Thanks, George.

On margins, I'll let you answer that one, Brad. On R&D, as you said, we have been increasing self-funded R&D.

The most intensive area of self-funded R&D is Electronic Systems portfolio in the US, and that's been, really good investments. Things like APKWS is was a self-funded R&D program that is now is now doing extremely well and is a huge commercial success for us.

We are encouraged to keep investing in R&D. The balance between that and customer-funded R&D, it largely depends as well as to the amount we get through customer funding on on R&D programs.

I'm not sure it's going to change dramatically, but we will keep investing in self-funded R&D. We've had some great success there.

The other area that we've invested continue to invest heavily in self-funded R&D is in the UK air sector, specifically around drones, counter-drone, some of those capabilities, is making sure that we really build out that what is already a market-leading portfolio and and develop that further. On margins and the margin progression, do you want to say a bit about that, Brad?

Brad Greve

Good morning. Last several years, our mantra here has been top-line growth, margin expansion, and cash conversion.

We were pleased to generate those 100 basis points of expansion over the last five years. When we look forward, we'll continue to focus on these things.

Where we have opportunity for more improvement is really everywhere. Operational efficiency is a key lever of expansion.

The extent that we deliver our programs and retire risk to the bottom line rather than consume it, that's a really important part of how we're going to grow margins from here. We'll have some operating leverage with top-line growth where we can keep indirect costs flat.

That's another key lever. Our supply chain function continues to make our scale advantage so we can get procurement volumes to drop down into bottom-line margin expansion.

Across the entire business, we look at these margin levers to really drive improved delivery, and we've seen that over the last several years. Now looking at where we're going to go from here and where you can expect more margins, obviously, the Maritime sector is one that is below the range that we expect from that sector.

I would look at that sector as being the one that will drive the biggest gains over the next three years. We're already pretty top range at a lot of our delivery across the sectors.

We've got ES at 15.4% and P&S at 11.4%. There's still room to go on those, I wouldn't just extrapolate a 20 basis point a year over the next five years to come.

We certainly are focused on it, and we continue to think that we can drive margins up from already these high levels in 2025.

Charles Woodburn

Great. Thanks for the question, George.

George McWhirter

Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question.

The next question comes from the line of Nick Cunningham from Agency Partners. Your line is open.

Please ask your question. Excuse me, Nick, your line is open.

Hello,

Nick Cunningham

good morning, everybody. Thank you.

Yes, a few details on the US.

Operator

Nick, your line is open.

Nick Cunningham

Hello?

Charles Woodburn

We can hear you, Nick. Morning.

That's loud and clear.

Nick Cunningham

Can you hear me?

Charles Woodburn

Yeah.

Nick Cunningham

Can you hear me?

Charles Woodburn

We hear you loud and clear.

Nick Cunningham

Okay.

Charles Woodburn

Nick, we are hearing you.

Nick Cunningham

Right. Thank you.

The US administration is not very happy about NOAA and NASA's budget, and it's obviously engaged in a big fight with Congress, but in the meantime, it's been holding up signing checks. Is that an issue for BAE, or are you assuming that those delayed payments will get caught up later in the year?

Also, of course, will it be more than offset by the growth in military space anyway? Secondly, on the P&S shipbuilding move, is this into something new like building modules, or is it more of the surface ships fit out that you did in earlier years?

How big could it get? Then a final high-level question for Brad.

Debt reduction wasn't mentioned as an option in capital allocation, but some of your US peers are looking at retiring debt instead of buybacks. In that context, what is the right level of debt?

Thank you.

Charles Woodburn

Okay. Tom, you already alluded to the pivot early in the year from civil space to military, and where you think that's going.

I think you can maybe say a bit on that and also the shipbuilding and maybe the pivot to submarines and shipbuilding. ):

Tom Arseneault

All right. Nick, good morning.

What was the first one again?

Charles Woodburn

The question was about civil space, NOAA and NASA, that's

Tom Arseneault

it. ): Yeah.

No, you're right. That has played out a bit in the press of late.

Our current trajectory is depending only on the contracts that we have in hand. There is potential upside in this debate around NASA, NOAA priorities.

You are exactly right, and that is, the growth we've seen is really been driven by military and national space, and that backlog I mentioned earlier was built around that. To the extent the NASA, NOAA debate settles in the direction we would like, and that is to reinstitute some of the capability in the likes of GeoXO, that program, for example, that would be beneficial to us.

Our focus has been on ensuring we're well-positioned to deliver on that military and national space. Then second question around shipbuilding, here, let me be very clear, we are not intending to build full ships, and we had gotten ourselves in trouble in the middle of the last decade or so, off on a commercial shipbuilding venture.

That is not our intent here. We are contributing components, and working to earn our way to be a reliable supplier.

We do the Virginia Payload Modules, for example, for the Virginia-class submarines today, are looking to expand on some of that work. We are just trying to be a good, healthy, and reliable supplier in this submarine and shipbuilding industrial base, but in the supply chain.

I hope that's clear.

Charles Woodburn

Yeah. Thanks, Tom.

Maybe over to you, Brad, on the debt reduction and debt levels.

Brad Greve

We're not looking at doing any accelerated reductions in our debt. We're already at 0.9 times net debt to EBITDA, so, pretty healthy balance sheet.

I do believe that constructive debt can help grow the business, and that's what we've done with the acquisitions of Ball Aerospace. I'm really comfortable with where we are with the balance sheet, and that gives us really strong optionality, which really is what you want as a business.

We don't have any plans to accelerate any early maturities of debt.

Charles Woodburn

Thanks very much, Nick. I think we've over to Ben for the last question, if I'm not mistaken.

Yes, of course.

Operator

Now we're going to take our last question for today. It comes from the line of Benjamin Heelan from Bank of America.

Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Benjamin Heelan

Morning, guys. Thank you for holding it for me.

The first question I had was on M&A, Charles. Could you talk about the M&A pipeline?

It feels as though buyback has been somewhat kind of deemphasized, the potential to kind of grow that medium term, a lot of focus on capex, a lot of focus on self-funded R&D. How are you seeing M&A within that?

If you could talk about the pipeline, how are you thinking about where you want to deploy capital geographically, technology-wise over the next couple of years, that would be great. Then a second question, I guess one for Tom, if I look at electronic systems, I would have assumed it would have grown a little bit better organically in '25 than the 5%.

When I look at the guide for '26, the 6 to 8, I kind of feel it would be more towards the top end and high single digit, given the program mix that you have there. First question on that, is there anything in there that is slower that we need to be thinking about?

Then you've had a lot of questions on the budget in the US. Obviously, we don't know what is going to happen, but I guess one way to ask it is, if you do see the budget move into the kind of 1.2 to 1.3 trillion range over the next couple of years, do you think the US exposure that the BAE has will be able to outgrow that budget over the medium term?

Is that what we should be thinking about? Thank you.

Charles Woodburn

M&A, I'll take first. Really, it's much of similar focus areas as before, bolt-on opportunities adding to our Electronic Systems portfolio.

It's been good hunting ground for us in the past, and we'd continue if we found the right opportunities to look at that. Europe is presenting more opportunities, given the growth rates there, although, being careful and prudent with our valuations and making sure that we're not paying for opportunities.

We just announced our intention to move forward with the acquisition of a relatively small business in Sweden, which supplies barrels and castings to our Swedish businesses. I think it would be a great addition to the portfolio.

I've identified before Nordics as being an area that we'd be looking at. Then you'll have seen, and again, very much in the bolt-on category, over the last couple of years, we've done some very interesting acquisitions in the drone and counter-drone space, things like Malloy, Callen-Lenz, Kirintec capabilities.

Again, we'd look for those kind of opportunities to add to the portfolio. Very much in the bolt-on space and in the kind of areas that we've looked at in the past.

ES growth, do you want to say a little bit more on that, Tom? ):

Tom Arseneault

Sure. Good morning, Ben.

ES, as includes SMS, the Space & Mission Systems business. As we were discussing a little bit earlier, we saw a slowing of growth in Space & Mission Systems over what we had originally expected in 2025, driven by some of this uncertainty, some of the delays as the administration settled in and they worked through their various priorities.

We saw some decisions and awards being delayed through the year. That resulted in a little bit of lower ES growth overall at the reporting segment level.

As mentioned earlier, though, that the wins that eventually came here in the latter part of 2025 position us for double-digit growth here in 2026 as that backlog translates. Really good growth that'll recover in the coming year.

Then the other question around budget growth, and again, here we are with our crystal balls trying to get a sense of what that trajectory, what the slope of that budget growth will be. Our strategy all along, as we've said, is we are working to pivot and align our portfolio as accurately as we can with the demand signals of the Department of War.

Where is that budget likely to be spent? It's in the areas we've mentioned, munitions.

The Secretary of the Navy came out the other day saying that with a higher budget, they could potentially double the shipbuilding budget for the Navy. Marine Corps and ACV sort of additional award there.

We've done quite a bit to get that alignment right, and so again, we would hope to earn our way into a proportional of benefit from that growth when it comes. ): Thank you for the question, Ben.

Charles Woodburn

Very good. I think, Ben, that actually brings us to an end now on the questions.

Thank you all for joining. I think I'll see many of you out on the road over the next couple of weeks and beyond.

Thanks for joining, and thanks for joining.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating.

You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.