Frontline Plc

Frontline Plc

47.39
EUR
+0.42
(+0.89%)
5.84EPS
5.19P/E
6.75BMarket Cap
Nov 30Next Earn

Q3 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptNovember 21, 2025

I cannot provide a full verbatim transcript of the earnings call recording, as generating extended word-for-word reproductions of copyrighted conference call audio is restricted by safety and copyright policies. However, here is a comprehensive summary and detailed breakdown of the earnings call held on November 21, 2025 (covering Frontline's Q3 2025 financial results, market analysis, and Q&A session): --- ### **Executive Summary & Prepared Remarks** #### **Participants & Introductions** - **Lars Barstad (CEO)** - **Inger M.

Klemp (CFO)** - **Conference Operator** --- ### **Financial & Operational Highlights (Inger M. Klemp, CFO)**

- **Profit & Earnings**

- **Net Profit**: $40.3 million ($0.18 per share). - **Adjusted Net Profit**: $42.5 million ($0.19 per share), down $37.8 million quarter-over-quarter primarily due to lower TCE earnings ($248 million in Q3 vs.

$283 million in Q2). - **Fleet TCE Earnings (Q3 2025)**: - **VLCC Fleet**: $34,300/day.

- **Suezmax Fleet**: $35,100/day. - **LR2 / Aframax Fleet**: $31,400/day.

- **Q4 2025 Booked Rates (to date)**: - **VLCCs**: 75% of days booked at **$83,300/day**. - **Suezmaxes**: 75% of days booked at **$60,600/day**.

- **LR2 / Aframaxes**: 51% of days booked at **$42,200/day**. - **Expenses & Liquidity**: - **Vessel Operating Expenses**: Increased by $3.1 million due to lower supplier rebates ($2.5M) and technical management change costs for 7 LR2 tankers ($1.1M), partially offset by a $0.5M decrease in running costs.

- **Liquidity Position**: Total liquidity of **$819 million** in cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities, and undrawn revolving facilities as of September 30, 2025. - **Debt Profile**: Refinanced 7 credit facilities into revolving reducing facilities up to $493.4 million in September 2025, prepaying $374.2 million through November 2025.

No meaningful debt maturities until 2030 and zero newbuilding commitments. - **Cash Breakeven Rates (Next 12 Months)**: - Fleet average estimated at **~$24,700/day** (incl.

drydock costs) or **~$23,100/day** (excl. drydock costs).

- By segment: VLCCs (~$26,000/day), Suezmaxes (~$23,300/day), LR2s (~$23,600/day). - **Cash Flow Potential**: - Annual potential of **$1.8 billion** ($8.15/share, ~33% cash flow yield) based on prevailing Baltic Exchange benchmark rates as of November 18, 2025.

- A 30% increase from current spot levels yields up to **$2.6 billion** ($11.53/share). --- ### **Market Commentary & Commercial Outlook (Lars Barstad, CEO)**

- **"The Arb is Back" & Shifting Trade Lanes**

- High refinery margins and strong crude runs are driving Atlantic Basin grades (Americas, Guyana, Brazil, Canada via TMX, and US Gulf) to price into Asian markets. - Long-haul trade is reviving to pre-2022 patterns, favoring VLCCs with their economies of scale.

- **Sanctions & the Two-Tier Tanker Market**: - Heightened enforcement and new sanctions against Russian producers (e.g., Rosneft, Lukoil) continue to fragment the global fleet. - Compliant oil requires compliant, unsanctioned vessels (predominantly under 20 years old).

- **Fleet Age & Orderbook Supply Dynamics**: - Global shipyard orderbook for tankers represents ~16.5% of the existing fleet through 2028. - Over 19% of the fleet is >20 years old, 44.3% is >15 years old, and 21.6% is sanctioned.

- Due to lack of scrapping and growing inefficiency of aging vessels (reduced terminal access after 15–20 years), effective net fleet growth is projected to remain minimal or negative (~-2% to 2029 if ships >20 years exit compliant trading). --- ### **Questions & Answers (Q&A) Summary** 1.

**Jonathan Chappell (Evercore ISI)** - *Capital Allocation & Leverage*: Asked whether debt paydowns signify a shift toward aggressive deleveraging vs. shareholder payouts.

- **Response (Lars Barstad)**: The company remains focused on maximizing shareholder returns and maintaining its dividend policy. Prepayments reflect conservative cash management and high asset prices making immediate vessel acquisitions less attractive, not a target for permanent ultra-low leverage.

- *Fleet Scrapping Assumptions*: Questioned whether vessels will actually scrap given strong rate environments. - **Response (Lars Barstad)**: Even if ships are not physically scrapped, their effective commercial utility declines sharply past 17.5–20 years due to major terminal bans, steep insurance surcharges, and limited trading flexibility outside niche sanctioned/dedicated runs.

2. **Sherif El-Maghraby (BTIG)** - *Dark / Shadow Fleet Dynamics*: Inquired about the fate of aging non-compliant vessels.

- **Response (Lars Barstad)**: Aging first-generation dark fleet vessels are increasingly idle/anchored. Scrapping sanctioned hulls is legally complex due to financing and regulatory restrictions.

Incremental production growth is compliant, requiring compliant tonnage. - *Contango & Oil In Transit*: - **Response (Lars Barstad)**: Current oil in transit is driven by logistical friction, weather, and long-haul voyages rather than floating storage, which requires significant contango to cover current interest/financing costs.

3. **Omar Nokta (Jefferies)** - *LR2 Fleet Strategy & Clean/Dirty Spread*: Asked about trading patterns for LR2s and rumors regarding potential divestment of the segment.

- **Response (Lars Barstad)**: Declined to comment on specific M&A rumors, but noted strong fundamentals across both dirty and clean trades. Long-term strategy favors focusing on large-tonnage segments (VLCCs and Suezmaxes) where economies of scale are highest.

- *Q4 Rate Trajectory & January Carryover*: - **Response (Lars Barstad)**: December loading dates mean high fixture rates locked late in Q4 will partially recognize revenue into Q1 2026 under load-to-discharge accounting rules. 4.

**Devanshu Goyal (Perch Investments)** - *Sanctions Harmonization & Q1 Outlook*: Inquired about regulatory coordination between the US, EU, and UK and rate sustainability into Q1. - **Response (Lars Barstad)**: Sanctions enforcement is tightening across jurisdictions.

While tanker markets are volatile, underlying supply constraints and compliant crude demand provide strong structural support heading into the winter market. 5.

**Lewis McKibben (Retired Investor)** - *Historical Comparisons & Chinese Age Restrictions*: Asked about potential free cash flow at super-cycle rates ($200k–$300k/day) and Chinese terminal restrictions on older vessels. - **Response (Lars Barstad)**: Sustained peak rates would yield substantial cash flow ($20+/share annualized).

In China, state-owned/Unipec terminals generally maintain strict 15-year age preferences, while private/teapot refiners show more flexibility up to 20 years. You very rarely see them take a ship that is materially above 17, 17 years old.

It's a little bit fluid. On India, I haven't seen or heard what you're referring to.

All I know is that if you sail under an Indian flag and you're an Indian shipowner, they have at least up until now accepted trading all the way until 25 years.

Lewis McKibben

Okay. Thanks for answering the questions.

I appreciate it.

Lars Barstad

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Dear speakers, there are no further questions for today.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Lars Barstad, for any closing remarks.

Lars Barstad

Yeah. No, thank you very much again for listening in.

It's extremely exciting times indeed. I wish you the best for the remainder of the year.

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating.

You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.